Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Are Gold & Silver Finally Airborne? ?(


    Rick Ackerman
    Wednesday, Apr 20


    "I'm confused!" writes Bill R., a paid-up Rick's Picks subscriber. "Is this gold and silver rally going to last, or should we wait for your call for the bottom?" First of all, Bill, let me say that as investors we need never be confused about where to enter or exit a position. Both of these things are entirely knowable from the get-go, and it is well worth our diligence to fix these details in our minds before initiating a trade, since being wrong is often easier to live with than being confused. Wrong means buying a stock, having it go against us, and then bailing out. When we are confused, though, we allow psychological pain's unpredictable nuances to make such decisions for us, usually with poor results. Thus, if bullion prices continue to rise, we might jump in belatedly, angry at ourselves for having missed the bottom. We've all done this, or something like it, succeeding in the process at something we can only rarely achieve deliberately - i.e., picking the exact top. :rolleyes:



    Nobody rings the bell when its time to buy or sell ! ;)



    mfg


    XEX 8)

    Ich sahe gerade meinen favourite guy Hugh Hendry von Ode Management auf CNBC.
    Es gibt nur ganz wenige die noch objectiv und weitsichtig sind.
    Die anderen sind von der muppet show und reden dementsprechend. :D
    Hendry kenne ich seit Jahren und er war eine gute guideline bis jetzt. Er ist gerade aus und haut einen fakten um die ohren wo der Moderator fast keine chance hat es daran zu meckern.


    Er sagte folgendes, es gibt fast nichts was heute die haelfte kostet wie bei gold bei 800 USD. Normal ist das fast alles zum vierfachen preis verkauft wird als die herstellungskosten. Er sagt es ist easy dass gold auf 500 $ steigt. Es wird dann in stufen und zick zack ppt attacks ueber die 800 $ klettern in "wenigen jahren",dabei :D er.


    Alles wird steigen, Oil 80 Dollar normal, weil sogar zucker, soya, etc. steigen wird durch inflation und dem backfire vom gedruckten fiat dollars. Die blase platzt und es gibt keine nation in der geschichte die es geschafft hat mit drucken von konfetti waehrungen auf ewig zu ueberleben.


    Der Gold/Oil ratio zeigt auch die Unterbewertung von Gold dubios :rolleyes: an.


    Er steigt jetzt in den minen aktien ein, er hat vorher alle verkauft bei 453, da er wusste es kommen wieder einige PPT anschlaege.


    Leider hat er mir wegen den verkauf nicht bescheid gegeben. :D


    Er meinte auch der Rand wird manipuliert und kann auf dauer diese staerke wirschaftlich und politisch nicht beibehalten.


    Er hat schon immer von GFI HMY DRD geschwaermt hat jedoch vorher mit profit verkauft weil er die ratte in der kueche gerochen hat.


    Anyway,he makes sense to me, he never lied since I know him.


    We all have to work to get the timing right ! :D
    Next time we do it right ! ;)


    Cheers


    XEX 8)

    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/daughty/daughty042005.html




    Gold was down last week, and down a lot, and I feel bad for those of you who have followed the advice of The Mogambo and bought gold and silver, and are standing outside of my house, clamoring for your money back, as per my Famous Mogambo Guarantee (FMG), which promises TWICE your money back if my advice is bad. Unfortunately, you neglected to read the disclaimer in footnote 123, in the back, in small print, where you would have read, in Latin, "This whole Mogambo thing is a big scam, and you ain't gonna get your money back. The Famous Mogambo Guarantee (FMG) that you are buying is worthless, and this Prospectus is less than worthless, in that several trees died to provide the paper to print this bogus crap on it."


    But, although you are angry and disappointed, and we are both getting really irritated by my wife laughing at you and screeching, "I told you so! I told you not to trust him, but would you listen to me? No! Now get off my lawn! Take your flaming torches and wait down the street until he goes to the store later, probably for a donut, or a pizza, or a pizza made with donuts, I dunno. But you can mob his car and beat the hell out of him then!" But, and I cannot stress this enough, 1) do NOT wait down the street, 2) do NOT mob my car, 3) do NOT beat the hell out of me, and 4) keep buying gold, because if gold does NOT soon start moving up and turning profits like a glorious gushing well that is spewing dollars all over the place, then it will be the first time in all of 5,000 years of history when it did NOT so respond when a misshapen, mal-invested, over-leveraged and highly-indebted Big Government economy got to this egregious point in its headlong drive towards national bankruptcy. And trust me when I say that they ALL got to this point, to one degree or another, because governments are always eventually filled with corrupt buttheads, and especially so after long, credit-fueled booms. And when they all saw that they couldn't, or shouldn't, raise taxes, they all typically decided to invade a neighboring country and steal THEIR money, or confiscate the money of the Jews, or just print the damn money they needed, which was the worst option, as it increased the money supply, which had to eventually find its way into the prices of things, because there is nowhere else for money to go, except into things, which makes the original problem worse. Just like we are doing now, and although we are creating money and credit with both hands, we only invade other countries to steal their oil.


    So, and this is the Mogambo Investment Tip Of The Day (MITOTD), these pullbacks in the price of gold and silver are golden (pun intended) or silveren (if you get my drift) buying opportunities, because half of a very famous investment strategy is to "buy low." One day, the other half of that phrase, "sell high," will make you want to name your children and grandchildren "Mogambo" out of sheer dumb-ass gratitude for giving you such good advice, and you will fly me up to the kid's christening or the bar-mitzvah or bris something, thinking that I will give the kid a present of some cash, but I won't.


    And gold is low-priced by a long shot, and silver is so grossly under-priced that I would call silver "the buy of the century."


    - Richard S. sent me a nice forward entitled "Taylor On US Markets & Gold, Roach, Hoye and Russell All Point Toward Deflationary Pressures" which the rest of the article expanded upon by providing some of these guys' thinking, which I distill, because I know how important and busy you are, into this pithy Mogambo Executive Summary (MES) which is "Doom for assets."


    Unfortunately, this does not mean that consumer prices are doomed, as I am finding just the opposite, having done the grocery shopping this morning, and then coming back to the office and reading that the New York Times has figured that food prices have risen by 20-30% in the last year or so. Naturally, I insult the Leftist NYT with things like "No kidding? And where in the hell have you been for the last couple of years that this is only NOW coming to your stupid attention, you Leftist-trash buttheads?" In fact, consumer prices are zooming, to which I will readily attest, having, as I said, done the grocery shopping this morning, and my eyes are still having trouble focusing from where my brain blew a fuse at the cost. It haunts me.


    And why does this haunt me? Well, if you will stop throwing pretzels at me for one damn minute, I will tell you. It is for two distinct and separate reasons. Firstly, when my check bounces, the store manager is going to be very grumpy with me again, and the next time I go into his store we are going to get into a real tussle where I am valiantly struggling to break free from the clutches of the security personnel (Bob and Wheezer) while simultaneously trying to explain to him that I am willing to settle for 70% of the amount owed, which I figure is fair, because I am paying him with dollars that were earned two years ago, and thus they are more valuable than ordinary dollars earned today, because in that two-year period the dollar has lost 30% of its value, all thanks to the damnable Federal Reserve creating so damn much money and credit, which turns into new, lower-value dollars when somebody borrows them, and the Fed has been doing this day after day, week after week, month after month, year after year, decade after decade, until my heads hurts from thinking about the effect this is going to have on rising prices as all this money winds its way around and around the world, buying things, and then, because he is stupid or because he is smart enough to see through my transparent ruse, he will say "no."


    And the second reason I will reveal by asking a question. Do you think that the French Revolution happened because prices for consumer staples deflated after their government printed up all that money? Hahaha! You think that the misery of Weimar Germany was caused by food being cheaper after the government printed up all that money? Again, I say, or chortle mirthlessly, as you knew I would, "Hahaha!"


    And food prices are going to get worse, as Michael W. Hodges of the Grandfather Economic Report has a little bad news about that when he notes "Not only is the technology product sector in deficit, but the U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service estimates 2005 will be the first year in nearly 50 that America will not turn an agricultural trade surplus."


    So we have to now import food, and with a falling dollar? Yow! Stock up on food now, because this means that grocery prices will just keep getting higher and higher as the dollar falls lower and lower, which it will, because the boneheads in Washington are actually trying to devalue the dollar!


    - An Asia Times article entitled "China's fury doesn't wash, but why the froth?" by Marc Erikson is about how the Chinese are supposedly expressing their fury and anger by demonstrating in the streets, all because Japan has new school textbooks that downplay the fact that Japan acted in a murderous, despicably barbaric way during WWII, especially when they were in China killing Chinese people, young, old, children, and babies, by the score.


    Fortunately, the Chinese are not as upset about how America does not emphasize in our school textbooks our horrific record of invading countries, bombing countries, shooting rockets at countries, arming the enemies of countries, assassinating leaders of countries, killing hundreds of thousands of people, and all the other arrogant bully stuff we have done and, apparently, are getting away with. Whew! Dodged that bullet! Or, if they ARE demonstrating in the street about the USA, this Erikson guy doesn't mention it.


    But Mr. Erikson is not sure that the Chinese people are actually angry at anything, but that this may be something much more sinister. "The obvious question is," he asks, "why was all this cooked up, for what purpose, and why now? One thing, though, is quite certain: the Chinese claim that Japan is to blame for the unrest is absurd.


    "But after seeing what I saw in Shenzhen, I know that the Chinese government and/or Communist Party got this thing going and kept it going. Students might do this sort of thing on their own. But in Shenzhen there are no students. It's a special economic zone chock full of contract workers from all over China."


    As to what this may mean, you do not have to wait for The Mogambo to sober up and tell you. In fact, Mr. Erikson does that for us, giving us time to order another round of drinks with those cute little umbrellas in them. As we sip and fence ("Thrust! Parry! Riposte!") with those little plastic swords, he stays on the job and writes, "To be systematic about it, there seem to be three possibilities: 1) the government wants to divert attention from pressing domestic problems; 2) Communist Party factional issues are fought out in a strange arena; 3) Beijing wants leverage to stoke up nationalist fervor for international gain. Neither 1) nor 2) can be entirely ruled out."


    A government trying to divert attention from domestic problems by rabble-rousing? I thought that was an American invention!


    -
    Unfortunately, you made, on average, zero percent a year for the entire seven-year stretch. Furthermore, it is impossible for everyone to make money in the stock market, because if it WAS possible, then all a country would have to do is print money, give it to the people, who would then buy shares with the money, and then they could all sit back and watch with glee as they all got wealthy, and everybody in the country could retire in luxury! And if you think THAT is going to happen, then, and at the risk of repeating myself, "Hahahaha!"


    Of course all the boneheads on CNBC and their "usual suspect" guest list all DO believe that this is possible, and that is why they are all sure, absolutely sure, that this is the perfect time to pick up more shares of stock. Any shares. Just buy. Now. And lots of them.


    - Richard L. Solyom, Chairman of the Sound Dollar Committee, has written a nice summary of the essay "THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM: A FATAL PARASITE ON THE AMERICAN BODY POLITIC" by Dr. Edwin Vieira, Jr. Mr. Solyom writes, "Dr. Vieira's central theme is that today's scheme of Federal-Reserve-System fiat currency and fractional- reserve banking is plainly unconstitutional, inherently fraudulent, economically unworkable in the long run, and subversive of America's political traditions of individual liberty and private property."


    He adds, showing himself to be the sunny optimist, "Hopefully, Dr. Vieira's message will prove to be a warning that comes, if none too soon, at least not too late."


    "Hahahahaha!" says The Mogambo. "Of course it is too late! It is far, far too late! Head for the hills, dragging your precious metals and machineguns behind you!


    - Rob Peebles, in his Prudent Rear Random Walk column, notes that Ed Easterling has written a new book entitled "Unexpected Returns-Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles." The salient point is that when the price earnings (P/E) is high, then the subsequent rewards for buying stocks at these high P/E ratios are low, and when the P/E is low, then the, as you would expect, subsequent rewards for buying stocks are higher.


    And where are we now? The P/E on the SP500 is around 20, which is on the very high side, historically, although not in the extremely high side (like it has been in the last few years) and not in the insanely high side, which is where a lot of Nasdaq stocks dwell, mostly because they have little earnings, but have, people think, good prospects for one day actually having some. Which they won't.


    - Bob Wood, of Kaizen Managed Assets, has been reading a book called "The Decline and Approaching Fall of the U.S." and it has shook him up pretty bad. For instance, for 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2001 the deficits were (less trust fund assets) $725.5b, $738.0b, $667.6b and $816.6b respectively, which, when added together, comes to $2.947 trillion. Those are just the budget DEFICITS!


    Ugh.


    **** The Mogambo Sez: The surprising resilience of the stock market to go up in the face of all of this is not surprising, as the Fed is on record as saying that they stand ready, willing and able to use "unconventional" methods to keep the markets from imploding (what they refer to as their dreaded "deflation"), including, but not limited to, buying futures, shares, bonds, mortgages or even land and houses. And I am sure that a lot of pressure is being brought to bear from foreign governments, whose citizens have invested a lot of money in American assets, and they sure as hell want to make sure that prices do not fall.


    Richard Daughty

    Peter,
    würde es nicht bestätigen. Gerade das gegenteil ist der Fall.
    Was glaubst du, wie die Chinesen da Gold kaufen, wenn es 20% billiger ist für sie. (die haben auch viele $)


    Ergibt steigende Nachfrage, ergo?


    Tschonko

    Genauso koennten sie jetzt schon ihre dollars in Euro CHF oder in ihre Waehrung tauschen, natuerlich vor der verlangten appreciation zum USD. :D :D


    But !!!!



    Will China allow its currency to appreciate?


    April 18, 2005


    Central to the thesis that the gold price will continue to rise on the back of a falling US dollar, is the premise that China will forego its policy of supporting the dollar in favor of letting its own currency, the renminbi, appreciate. Both China and Japan are accumulating massive amounts of dollars as a result of their trade surpluses with the United States. But instead of selling those trade dollars into the foreign exchange markets, they, and other countries, are hoarding the dollars and investing them in US Treasury securities. As a result the US dollar is currently trading at a much higher exchange rate than it should versus the renminbi, the yen, other Southeast Asian currencies and, in fact, most currencies.


    Many people have argued that China will not allow the renminbi to appreciate against the dollar because it needs US consumption to drive its fledgling economy. But pressure is mounting from Europe, the United States, the World Bank and the IMF for China to let its currency appreciate.


    The contention is that Chinese exports have an unfair advantage in the world because the renminbi is undervalued in foreign exchange markets. The undervaluation is a direct result of China’s dollar-hoarding policy, since it keeps the trade dollars that China receives every day off the market.


    Support is growing in the US Senate for taking tariff action against China. The US trade deficit with China totaled $29.12 billion for only January and February of this year. That is a fifty percent increase from last year. The US trade deficit with China is now the largest of any country and almost double the size of the trade deficit with Japan, which is second.


    The appointment of a new US trade representative is being blocked until Senate leaders vote on anti-subsidy laws against non-market economies such as China. In addition, a wide coalition of senators is backing legislation to impose a 27.5% tariff on all Chinese products entering the US if Beijing does not agree to raise the value of its currency.


    If China does not allow its currency to appreciate against the dollar, and if the US goes ahead and implements the tariffs, all Chinese goods will become 27.5% more expensive for US consumers. On the other hand, if China allows its currency to appreciate, let’s say by the same amount, 27.5%, then its goods would be no more expensive to US consumers than if tariffs were imposed. However, the cost of all China’s imports would fall by 21.6% if it allowed its currency to appreciate by 27.5%. So what do you think China is more likely to do? Give the US government a revenue stream equal to 27.5% of the value of all Chinese imports to the US, or reduce the cost of its own imports by 21.6%?


    The Chinese have always struck me as intelligent and practical.
    I suspect that China is going to let its currency appreciate. This not only means that the US dollar is going to fall, it also implies that US interest rates are going to rise because if the Chinese (and Japanese) no longer have to keep their trade dollars off the market to prevent the US dollar from falling they will also not need to buy as many US Treasuries as they have in the past.


    It’s all starting to come together. The next big upward move in the gold price will occur when China and Japan allow their currencies to appreciate and the dollar to fall. I have no idea ?( whether it will be this year, or next, but I do believe the current decline in gold and gold related equities represents an opportunity. ;)


    Paul van Eeden

    Zitat

    Original von Eldorado
    Peter silly


    Get the fu...k out of here you clown !.
    Pest somebody else,better spam yourself ! :D


    XEX


    Ironie?
    Wir machen hier kein Ausdruckslimbo, dies gilt auch für dich Eldorado!


    Gruß



    HORSTWALTER

    afm


    Zitat

    "Eine solche Aufwertung hätte grosse Auswirkungen auf den Goldpreis. Es würde bedeuten, dass alle in U.S. Dollar notierten Güter sofort um den Aufwertungssatz billiger werden. Dazu gehören auch Gold, Silber und Oel."


    Das wär ja doch mit das schönste Geschenk an Gold Bugs was man sich vorstellen kann.


    Die Chinesen können ab sofort Gold, und Silber um 10-15% billiger einkaufen. Die Benzinpreise würden durch eine solche Aufwertung ebenfalls 10-15% billiger. Da kommt gewaltige Kaufstimmung auf in China. Alle chinesischen Importe inkl. aller Rohstoffe werden über Nacht ebenfalls um diesen Prozentsatz der Aufwertung billiger. Das bedeutet Wirtschaftswachstum und zusätzliche Nachfrage in China. Es würde einen neuen Boom auslösen. Die Gewinne der chinesischen Firmen werden geradezu explodieren, und den dortigen Börsen zu neuen Höhenflügen (Bubble) verhelfen.


    Hingegen werden chinesische Güter so quasi über Nacht 10-15% teurer für die Amis. Das ergibt zusätzlichen Inflationsdruck, steigende Zinsen, und damit weiter steigende (real) negative Zinserträge für die Amis. Gut für Gold, und schlecht für den Dollar.


    Für uns Europäer, und den nicht asiatischen Raum würde sich daraus direkt überhaupt nichts ändern. Gold würde sich weder verbilligen noch verteuern, da ja nur die chinesische Währung aufgewertet würde.


    Ob die Chinesen danach vermehrt in den USA einkaufen, wie die Amis sich erhoffen, ist stark anzuzweifeln.


    Das die Amis die nun 10-15% teurer gewordenen China Produkte gegen amerikanische tauschen werden, dürfte Illusion bleiben, da amerikanische Produkte im Verhältnis zu chinesischen immer nocht viel zu teurer sind. Das Handelsbilanz defizit der USA wird sich durch einen solchen Aufwertungsschritt der Chinesen eher noch zusätzlich verschlechtern, weil die neue Nachfrage aus China die Rohstoffpreise noch zusätzlich verteuern, und das Angebot verknappen wird.


    Alles sehr positive Auswirkungen insgesammt für die Gold, und Silber Preise also!


    Susi

    April 20 – Gold $434.60 up $2.40 – Silver $7.42 up 20 cents


    Planet GATA 1, Planet Wall Street 0


    The real man smiles in trouble, gathers strength from distress, and grows brave by reflection...Thomas Paine


    GO GATA!!!


    Real estate prices on Planet GATA are about to go through the roof as the compelling case to be long gold soars, while those still long the US stock market on Planet Wall Street are staring at many rough years ahead. First to recap recent MIDAS commentary:


    *The turnaround time of major price-capping at $429 to covering their shorts at the $422 level was the shortest on MIDAS record. It went from months to two days. This strongly suggested to me the correction was ending as The Gold Cartel did not want to be too short at those levels anymore, preferring to pull in shorts to lay them out at higher levels.


    What many market pundits may not appreciate is the cabal white collar Mafia crooks have made a fortune trading in concerted, un-American fashion for a decade even by being net short all the way up from the bottom at $252. The reason is they made a killing with their casino-like rigged trading by buying dips and selling rallies while gold went nowhere for years. Then, on the way up, they have picked the pockets of the long specs for $10 to $40 a pop trading from the short sides. So while gold has rallied $180 per ounce, they probably have booked trading profits of $300 per ounce for a net gain of $120 per ounce during the run higher by flushing out the specs over and over again. Meanwhile, they have done all they can to help the Orwellians in Washington keep their strong dollar policy in play as much as possible.


    It was a wild day and a nightmare one for those assigned to keep the derivatives neutron bomb from going off. It is important to keep in mind their worst nightmare is higher interest rates and volatility in the US financial markets as rates RISE.


    Gold was higher even though the dollar was on the firm side when the US CPI number was announced to audible gasps:


    08:29 March CPI reported 0.6% vs. consensus 0.5%; ex-Food & Energy 0.4% vs. consensus 0.2%
    Prior CPI report unrevised to 0.4%; ex-Food & Energy unrevised 0.3%.
    * * * * *


    Who knows what the real core CPI number really was? However, to announce one double the anticipated number was a real jolt to those silly pundits yesterday that said the 8.4% annualized PPI number was nothing to be concerned about; that inflation was a non-factor as far as the markets should be concerned. RIGHT!


    Incredibly, some, like Jim Glassman of JP Morgan Chase, were out there again today with the same pitiful spin, reaching for the goofiest of inflation rationalizations in this Dow Jones story:


    "I don't think this makes the case for accelerated Fed tightening, especially when there are concerns about the economy slowing," said James Glassman, an economist with J.P. Morgan in New York.….


    Glassman, the J.P. Morgan economist, said the early celebration of Easter this year - in the last week of March instead of early April - may have driven up prices in some categories and affected the overall index. "There's a possibility the early Easter is exaggerating gains in lodging away from home and apparel," he said…


    -END-



    @Horstwalter


    Yes,yes I got it !!, strangely if I lose my temper only once,you play immediatly the policeman,otherwise you are sleeping if others go on and on with provoking irritating postings/spam which lead to reactions like that. Have you ever read the nonsense of him ? , I guess not !
    What is the minimum age to be a member here ?


    12 years ? :D


    Let them take over the forum and we all can read more kiddie gold news.
    In that case I'm out Horstwalter because I'm 48 years and have better things to do than answer to children on GS.


    Bye the way, he was asking for it, so lets be fair and give him also a warning, or are you his daddy ?? ?(


    Gruss


    Eldorado

    Peter


    Ich bin noch nie irgenwo rausgschmissen worden im Leben, ich gehe vorher und verliere damit nicht mein gesicht.Ich bin nicht der einzige der sich ueber dich aufregt, aber die meisten sind zu complacent und sagen nichts dazu. Ich habe es gesagt und sagte es my way, die einzige sprache die clowns wie du verstehen.


    @all


    I hand over to Peter Silly, he will deliver all you need to know.
    Your new Mega Moderator and Analyst will add value to Goldseiten Forum as expert on all fronts. My job is done, you got the message.



    Gruss


    Eldorado

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