Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    frr ;) .... great link and news :))


    Habe heute mir mal die Charts und Trendlines zur Abwechslung angeschaut,obwohl eine Frau doch schoener ist.
    Wenn ich mir den Rand anschaue dann habe ich eine Vermutung.


    Der Rand kann langfristig im Schnitt von 27% fallen im Vergleich zu Euro/Dollar/CHF/GBP.


    Er kann ca. 14% zum Euro fallen.
    Ist eh mehr handel mit EU


    42 % zum Dollar
    Wenig handel mit US, gut fuer die Mines.


    27% zum Pound
    Zweitgroesster Handelpartner.



    42 % zum Dollar hoert sich irre an da der Fiat Dollar ja fallen soll. ?(



    Wenn aber der Rand diese Werte erreicht dann muss Gold wiederum bei 530 USD sein. :P



    Die RSA Minen sind bei dem Preis ca.40% unterbewertet und manipuliert worden.
    Soweit sollten sich diese erholen wenn das Land stabil bleibt mit dem ANC und die Gewerkschaften kein Theater machen. :(


    Anyway, it makes me think ?(


    Also the tree month up and three month down cycles with Gold.


    Hey,soon we have a new quarter on 30th May a new moon on 6th June. ;)



    Looks like it's hopping up now,maybe for only two month this time. :)



    Hasta Pronto


    XEX 8)

    You're the sort of smart ass we all love ... No real input - except negative replies. ... Are you aware the word implies also "lies", which may be a strong word for seer of no future - or maybe "true lies" as in Gubernator's "I'll be back"!
    ... Oh, except you've got to say something of value - Goldgoscherl, bledes zum Beispiel, wär scho wos. Oba, Oida, im Grund host koa Ohnung net, oda?


    Moch da nix draus - bist in guata Gsellschaft - and enjoy the income of your Immos as long as you can! - und glaube an die "goldilox" Ekonomie des -trau mi net - "goldenen" Westens - for ever. I bin a for Eva, oba die Kuah hat a Problem mit mia - sie mog mi net - na, hearst, i konns kam glabn, weu des is wos uns vabindet - net Dei deppada Ferrari oder sunjst a klasser Jaguar - der mi sowiso auffristt af der Tankstell . Di a oida? Oder profitierst a wannst im Öh bist? Wurd mi gfreien, weul i bin net nochtragend; Konnst ma glabn, oder net - is ma ziemli wurst.


    ... und da die Badesaison beginnt ist mein Rat ... geh bodn mei Freind ...
    das Wasser ist lau ... weitere Reime erspar ich uns ... frr

    He frr,
    guter Text. Hast du den auf GRÜVE verfasst?


    Aber du stürzt den armen nostradamus in Verwirrung.
    Da wird er Schwierigkeiten haben, das zu verstehen.
    Ich will ihm mal helfen, weil der Petzi ja so lieb ist.


    Zitat

    Moch da nix draus - bist in guata Gsellschaft - and enjoy the income of your Immos as long as you can! - und glaube an die "goldilox" Ekonomie des -trau mi net - "goldenen" Westens - for ever. I bin a for Eva, oba die Kuah hat a Problem mit mia - sie mog mi net - na, hearst, i konns kam glabn, weu des is wos uns vabindet - net Dei deppada Ferrari oder sunjst a klasser Jaguar - der mi sowiso auffristt af der Tankstell . Di a oida? Oder profitierst a wannst im Öh bist? Wurd mi gfreien, weul i bin net nochtragend; Konnst ma glabn, oder net - is ma ziemli wurst.


    Und das in Englisch, das kann er ja:


    Zitat

    Moch there nix draus - are in guata Gsellschaft - and enjoy the income OF your Immos as long as you CAN! - believes and in "goldilox" the Ekonomie trust mi net - the "golden" west - for more ever. I is A for EH, oba the Kuah A problem with mia - it mog mi net - well, hearst, i konns came glabn, weu is wos us vabindet - net Dei deppada Ferrari or sunjst A klasser Jaguar - which mi sowiso auffristt af tank-place. Di A oida? Or does A profit in the Oeh is wannst? Wurd mi gfreien, weul i is net still-carrying; Konnst mA glabn, or net - is mA ziemli sausage.... and the bath season begins there is my advice... goes bodn mei to Freind...


    Cetrum censeo, Aquiläe ..........


    Nice evening


    Tschonko

    Worries wegen Hedge Funds, erinnert mich an LTMC ?(
    Haben sich da enige uebernommen mit GM/Ford Aktien etc. ??
    Hoffentlich kriegt JPM mal eine saftige Watschn zur Abwechslung,diese Saubuam !. X(


    Super Radio Reports, schoen dann brauche ich weniger lesen. :))
    Chapman's Market Cycle Report sowie das ganze Team bei freemarketnews.com finde ich fuer glaubwuerdig und informativ.


    http://www.freemarketnews.com/portfolio/talkradioetv.php


    Gnight


    XEX

    You've covered the general idea.


    Loss mi bloss no a bissl weida ausholn - De Blunzn die i brot is wirkli eibrotn - fost so äus wärs a "Steak" aussn oidn Westen - oba in Ne'vada - woast eh, es liegt an der Beton(ier)ung is a tchechis`ches Wurt so wia Ne-Braska - a slowakisches sei koh; Oder net?


    Oba, wos woas i - do mei Latein durtn ofangt wo Cato - der oidere - gwettert hot, gegen de Cartager in seinem Suff und hot immer wida widahoed - Ceterum censeo IMF'em esse delendam - ...



    Oba da Hannibal hot se gfreit und seine Elefanten übern Brenner gschickt - vun de oarmen (Elephanten) is glei koana af der anderen Seiten onkumma - oba a ka Hannibal oder sei Bruader Hasdrubal, wenn ich mich nicht irre!


    ... und die Lehre von der Gschicht - vergiss mir die Geschichte nicht!


    History does not repeat - it rhymes (Mark Twaine - the Ghost of Virginia City, Nevada, the silver mother Lode - next to the greatest little city of the world Reno, which is next to the greatest little town of the world ... the town where two trucks meet and have a traffic jam and the same where
    QEII sailed the Humboldt, the creek passing by the township of Lovelock and ... ending up at - outside of the old Owl Club - of, hey, you still won't believe it ... a town called (no, shame on ya -) not Alice - that's an affront!


    The town is called - WINNEMUCCA - and very much to my chagrin I've liked the dealing girls too much to win a game of 21, which is called Black Jack!
    ... and I've never believed how black a jack may ultimatey become ...


    No way - he's sill dealing fair - at least in comparison to any formerly stronghold of the free and brave ... and their so called markets - financial markets, that is!


    See ya, Chum ...

    Conclusion :


    Short term : HUI is so oversold and undervalued against gold that a further decline seems highly unlikely. The Gold/HUI ratio and the 'relative' HUI both suggest an upward bounce (at least for the short term) no matter what the current overall trend is (bull or bear). According to its own history such a bounce could launch the HUI towards its own 200 dma. Therefore a (short term) bounce towards the 200 level shouldn't be categorized as being 'science-fiction'.


    HUI long term, bull market over ?


    Many analysts do suggest that even if the HUI manages to make an upward bounce (in order to work off a severe oversold condition) its gain will be limited by its 200 dma before continuing its downward trend since Dec 2003. Now, is the HUI bull run history indeed? Or should we prepare ourselves for the next move up ?


    Well, it all depends on the price of Gold imo. Higher gold prices mean higher gold stock valuations, it's as simple as that ! Before we go further let's check out if that is and has been the case of late.


    Higher Gold prices mean Higher Gold Stock valuations ?


    Some analysts claim that gold stocks could be in a bear market while gold itself could remain in a bull market. Analysts projections of a HUI decline towards 100 while bullish on gold confirm the extreme bearish sentiment towards the gold shares these days.


    Statements that gold stock valuations have nothing to do with the price of gold is denying that the rise of Durban Deep from 50 cents towards $50 in the late seventies had anything to do with the sharp rise in the price of gold. Mining companies do have gold reserves. When gold prices rise, the net value of the company's gold reserves rise and so will company's total net worth !


    'What is the future trend of the dollar ?' Why ?


    Because there is a very strong correlation between the dollar and gold. If the dollar goes so will gold but in opposite direction.


    Still some analysts try to put gold in a commodity box and are happy to explain rising gold prices mainly to producer de-hedging activities. I don't agree with that kind of reasoning. When you consider that the paper-gold market is about 35 times larger than the physical gold market it should be obvious that a tiny 300 tonnes producer de-hedging don't have that much effect in the face of a massive 120.000+ tonnes of paper-gold traded every year. Sure, producer de-hedging helps to underpin the price of gold but it's not determining its primary trend. Producer de-hedging is a consequence of a higher gold-price (expectation) but it's not causing it.


    So what determines the primary trend of gold ?


    Well, the primary key-driver for gold remains the dollar, no matter how you slice it.


    Gold is the primary driver for gold since gold trades as a currency and has proven to be a perfect hedge against a declining dollar, it's there for everyone to see. If gold and the dollar move in opposite direction than we should see a similar pattern if we chart gold against an inverted dollar


    Future scenario ?


    Again, no-one can predict the future but nevertheless it's fun to speculate about future possibilities. Now if the dollar remains in a bear-market in which I think it will, than we're approaching now the end of 'counter-trend' rally III (see three-year dollar chart). What you'll notice is that the end of a 'counter-trend' rally usually marks the beginning of a multi-month decline (> 6 month). No here it gets interesting since the greatest rises in gold happened to start at the end of previous dollar 'counter-trend' rallies.


    The end of 'counter-trend' rally I occurred in Aug 2003. Gold started an impressive rally then which took it $70 higher ($360-$430)


    The end of 'counter-trend' rally II occurred in May 2004. Gold started an impressive rally again which took it almost $90 higher ($371-$456)


    The end of counter trend rally III in May/June 2005 ???. Another Gold move in the make of $70 - $90 ??


    Previous up-moves in gold which started from ending dollar 'counter-trend' rallies lasted 5 - 7 months launching gold by $70 - $90. Another 5 -7 months up-move in gold taking it up by $70-$90 brings us $500 gold before year end or shortly thereafter. Weird idea ? Don't think so. Even GFMS which is always very conservative with its price predictions wouldn't be surprised to see $500 later this year.


    Dollar could push gold to $500 level in 2005
    By Kevin Morrison
    Published: April 28 2005


    Gold prices could reach $500 a troy ounce this year if the dollar continues to be forced down by concerns about the twin US deficits, said GFMS, the precious metals consultancy, on Thursday.


    "We are reasonably sure that we will see a $470 or $480 gold price, and I think there is a distinct possibility that we could see $500 this year," said Philip Klapwijk, executive chairman of GFMS, at the launch of the group's 2005 gold survey. END


    It should be obvious that if the dollar remains in a bear-trend indeed gold will resume its upward trend soon. If Gold resumes its uptrend soon then the Gold/HUI extremes can't be solved without much higher gold stock prices.


    Highlights :


    Dollar reaches overbought condition which makes a further up-move increasingly difficult.
    Relative dollar chart suggest a top nearby for the dollar as well.
    When Dollar resumes its bear trend of last three years gold will go but in opposite direction since gold is the anti-dollar and trades like a currency.
    Dollar could be very well in its latest stage of a 'counter-trend' rally
    Previous ends of dollar 'counter-trend' rally marked the start of giant gold up-moves ($70-$90)
    If Gold resumes its uptrend soon then Gold/HUI extremes can't be solved without much higher gold stock prices.
    Relative Gold/HUI charts suggest a bottom nearby for gold-stocks and gold.

    If you would like to view other articles by Eric Hommelberg,


    http://freemarketnews.com/portfolio/index.php

    GO GATA!!!


    In:


    *Stronger dollar due to confusion over Euro
    *Lower intermediate/long-term US interest rates
    *PPT inspired US stock market
    *Fabricated employment/US inflation numbers
    *Silver


    Out:


    *The truth
    *Gold
    *The euro


    Forgotten: :D


    *Growing US fiscal deficits
    *Iraq


    Rebounding: :rolleyes:


    *Oil - $51.03, little changed
    *Copper – Spot $161.40, up 8 cents; July $144.95, up 3 cents
    *CRB – 300.09, up .85


    For what seems like a daily occurrence, gold made its high of the day during the non-Comex affected time period in London, coming in at $418.75. At that, it was on its way lower after rising to $419.70 during Asian trading hours.


    The gold world has been dumbed-downed to believe the price of gold can only move up if the dollar moves south. This is just what The Gold Cartel intended market participants to think. The only reason gold has traded in sync with the action of the dollar much of the time is because of the cabal’s market manipulation scheme. They have used the dollar action to play with the specs, capping the market on dollar weakness/ spec buying, and then covering like they are now when the dollar rallies and the funds sell. They have made a fortune over the last 8 years playing their orchestrated game in this manner.


    There is a zero chance of the gold/dollar trading pattern, or relationship, staying status quo in the months and years ahead if MIDAS and the GATA camp are correct about the central bank gold loan/swap situation. We believe more than half the central bank gold is no longer there, having been fed into the physical marketplace for a decade in order to suppress the price and keep the dollar much firmer than it otherwise would have been; i.e., the US Strong Dollar Policy came into being.


    If we are correct, The Gold Cartel is going to hit the wall in terms of securing the 120+ tonnes of gold they need every month to keep the price of gold from taking off. At some time in the future, I believe near future, they will have to let the price shoot up towards $500 to ration the diminishing central bank supply. To ration demand (slow it down) the price must rise sharply. As this process kicks in, it won’t matter what the dollar is doing.


    During this latest gold price decline, especially of late, gold has been firming up in terms of other currencies. This is a positive development, one which bodes well for gold company profits and the future price of gold in dollars.


    Not only is available central bank supply on the wane, so is mine supply, which was even less than previously thought for all of 2004:


    "Global gold mine output was 2,464 tonnes in 2004, figures from consultants GFMS show."


    In the meantime The Gold Cartel continues to stop all rallies, which is why gold fails to trade like most of the other commodities markets which are gyrating all over the place. Every time gold attempts to move higher the cabal sells. This encourages the funds to sell, causing the price to retreat. The buyers on the retreat are The Gold Cartel forces. Who is doing what and why is clear as can be.


    Why doesn’t The Gold Cartel smash gold into oblivion? Because the physical market is too strong. The cabal doesn’t want to increase their exposure at these price levels – just keep the price at bay and a non-event as far as the financial markets are concerned.


    Silver refuses to go down and closed near the upper end of its massive wedge formation. A breakout to the upside ought to be extremely bullish. Silver is holding its own and then some. What will it do when the dollar reverses course and gold takes off? Fireworks are brewing. On that note:


    Your London Stalker buddy has been a pretty consistent source of accurate market intel, especially with regard to gold. But his silver bunny has a bad nose. Or, more likely, is in a pickle and is trying to use whatever means possible to try and jawbone silver players into selling. Quite frankly I thought he was crazy the first time around, but when I saw his cue the other day I went out and moved more money into my futures account so I could get long more July silver. The most ironic part is, at this stage in the game your steadfast subscribers who remain are the ones who really understand reality. Let's keep this source alive, because he is a fabulous contrarian indicator!



    Dave in Denver

    Guten Morgen, hier ein neuer Report von Paul van Eeden ueber Dollar.
    Technisch gesehen liegt die untere Grenze nun bei 1.246 USD/Euro,sollte diese Marke durchbrochen werden kann es bis auf 1.20 USD/Euro gehen.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    On Sunday France will hold a referendum to decide whether the country should ratify the proposed constitution of the European Union. Current polls indicate that a majority of the voters may vote against ratifying the Constitution.


    It is quite possible, then, that the recent strength in the US dollar is a result of capital flowing out of euros and into dollars. The euro has declined more than 4.5% against the dollar during the past three months and the gold price, in US dollars, has been weak.


    If France votes "No" on Sunday we could see further erosion of the euro, increased strength in the dollar and weakness in the gold price. Another possibility is that given the lack of sound currencies investors will turn to gold itself, and the gold price might benefit in spite of dollar weakness. I find the latter to be an attractive possibility and it would certainly be my first choice, but we have not seen gold benefit much from uncertainty in the past fifteen years, so I suspect that instead of gold, the dollar will benefit the most from euro uncertainty.


    If France votes "Yes" and ratifies the European Constitution we could see the euro rally, the dollar fall and the gold price rise. That would be good news for gold stocks and might catch a few people off guard, as many anticipate weakness in gold stocks at least until autumn.


    Regardless of what happens on Sunday, we should keep our eyes the dollar itself and the issues facing it. I am no fan of the dollar. Recent weakness in the euro may have given it a boost, but we must remember that the US trade deficit is putting immense pressure on the dollar. The dollar has not declined significantly as a result of the trade deficit only because Japan, China, and several other trading partners of the US have been buying US treasuries, instead of selling their dollars into foreign exchange markets to prevent their currencies from appreciating.


    The party ends when these countries stop buying US Treasuries with their trade dollars and convert them back into local currency instead. That is why the key to the gold price, in my opinion, is whether China will allow the renminbi to float and, if so, when.


    Washington is putting tremendous pressure on China to let its currency appreciate. If China complies it will eliminate China's need for US Treasuries. You can bet that Japan, together with many other countries in Southeast Asia, will follow suit and let their currencies appreciate as well. But then who is going to buy all the US debt that Washington has to sell in order to finance its spending?


    Net Foreign Official purchases of US Treasuries were negative $14.98 billion in March this year. This was the largest net redemption of US Treasuries by the Foreign Official sector since August 1998 and the first net redemption since August 2003. A warning?


    If the impact of this does not immediately strike you I suggest you read my commentary from February 10th (available on my website at http://www.paulvaneeden.com in the Commentary section). You may also find it interesting that Ben Bernanke, a governor of the Federal Reserve Board who is being nominated by President Bush to become Chair of his Council of Economic Advisors, stated that there would be a measurable impact on US interest rates if China stopped buying US Treasuries. Keep that in mind when you read the February commentary, and next time you hear Treasury Secretary John Snow call on China to revalue its currency.


    The thought I would like to leave you with today is that even though uncertainty about the European Constitution may be boosting the dollar in the short term, the outlook for the dollar is grim. I will be the first to admit that I have no idea how long this dollar strength will last, or what is going to happen in Europe, but I will tell you that I have a lot of patience and the surest bet I know of is a bet against the dollar. For me, that means a bet on gold. ;)


    Paul van Eeden

    Die Franzosen diskutieren das in einem Ausmaß, wie es in D oder Ö unvorstellbar ist. Geht quer durch alle Parteien.


    Die Deutschen werden ja zu solchen Dingen nicht mehr gefragt.
    Ein Überbleibsel von 1933.
    Die Franzosen werden wahrscheinlich mit Nein stimmen.
    Szenario siehe Zitat.


    Zitat

    If France votes "No" on Sunday we could see further erosion of the euro, increased strength in the dollar and weakness in the gold price. Another possibility is that given the lack of sound currencies investors will turn to gold itself, and the gold price might benefit in spite of dollar weakness. I find the latter to be an attractive possibility and it would certainly be my first choice, but we have not seen gold benefit much from uncertainty in the past fifteen years, so I suspect that instead of gold, the dollar will benefit the most from euro uncertainty.


    Grüße
    Tschonko

    Tschonko


    Europa profitiert beim Export, passt schon.Die Franzosen sind die einzigen die auf die Strasse gehen und demonstrieren,in D schluckt man alles, leider.
    Ein starker Dollar fuehrt zu hoeheren Imports in der US und wie einfach druckt man weiter bis ins Uferlose. Kommt ja keiner und sagt jetzt ist Schluss solange sie kaufen und kaufen. Ich habe immer die Vermutung wenn dann Zahltag ist dann bewerten sie die Goldreserven in Fort Knox so hoch das sie damit wieder kreditwuerdig sind.
    So wie man den Preis von Gold runter manipulieren kann geht es auch hinauf und somit stimmt dann wieder die Buchhaltung. :D


    Ihr lacht vielleicht, normal sollte die Wahl auf Nein ausgehen,dann wuerde Holland folgen und das Chaos ist perfekt.
    Die werden an den Zahlen ein wenig drehen und die Wahl geht auf Ja aus. Glaubt ihr an echte Wahlergebnisse und ehrliche Auszaehlungen im Elektronischen Zeitalter ?
    So hat auch Bush und De Klerk gewonnen. :D


    Expect the unexpected !!!

    Even the Italians are Falling Out of Love With the EU


    May 26, 2005


    According to a story on Reuter's website, the Italians are falling out of the EU. No, they are not becoming eurosceptic, various political scientists proclaim but they are rather fed up with what they see as the EU's demands making the Italian recession worse.


    Needless to say, Silvio Berlusconi has been making noises.


    "We're pretty tired of all this bureaucracy. We are really determined to do battle over this because Europe's job should not be to create difficulties for member states, but precisely the opposite."


    True enough, though it has taken them a little time to realize the problem. In any case, the statement is not unconnected with Berlusconi's domestic political problems.


    Berlusconi is blaming the euro or, at least, the way it was put into place (the method is always the problem, not the substance) for Italy's economic difficulties. Popular support for the euro, according to the last Eurobarometer poll, is down to 62 per cent.


    Anyone who has visited Italy recently and talked to Italians would know that that is an overestimate. The euro was never all that popular, though the idea of Europe may have been.


    It seems to be a given that most Italians are pro EU and Prodi may reap the benefits there. But Berlusconi, who has made great play of standing up for Italy's interests, may yet surprise us all. Again. After all, opinion appears to be moving in his direction.

    Der heutige Handelstag in New York sollte zeigen wie die Wahl in Frankreich ausfaellt da ich vermute das Insider schon heute darauf reagieren, erst Recht wenn Montag die Boerse in New York geschlossen ist wegen Feiertag. Es wird bestimmt ein interessanter Abend,bin gespannt wie es ausgeht.
    Meiner Meinung nach ist der Hochpunkt beim Dollar erreicht und Gold sollte demnaechst ansteigen,hoffen wir mal es springt heute ueber 420 USD.


    If France votes "Yes" and ratifies the European Constitution we could see the euro rally, the dollar fall and the gold price rise.
    That would be good news for gold stocks and might catch a few people off guard :D, as many anticipate weakness in gold stocks at least until autumn.



    Gruss


    Eldo

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