Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    3002


    Ab Juni, Juli werden sich die Konjunkturdaten weiter verschlechtern. Im 2. Halbjahr dramatisch. Im April gabs die letzten 'Finanzspritzen'. Asien (besonders Japan und China) zieht sich mehr und mehr aus dem Dollar zurück. Von einem selbsttragendem Aufschwung kann keine Rede sein. Kapazitätsauslastungen von 75% in einem "Boom", sich verschlechterndes Vertrauchervertrauen, fallender Konsum, Zinsen, welche schon vor der eigentlichen Erhöhung steigen, steigende Preise - all das wird sich weiter verstärken.


    Eine sich abschwächende Konjunktur und steigende Preise - Alan sitzt bald in der Falle. Alles wird Gold und Silber in die Hände spielen.


    ...und wir können sagen, dass wir es schon vorher gewusst haben.

    littleflock


    Zitat

    Warum verknappen die Minengesellschaften nicht kuenstlich das Gold (weniger foerdern, aehnlich OPEC). Eine manipulation des Marktes durch Banken ist doch bestimmt nicht im Interesse der Minenbesitzer, oder?


    Diese Frage stelle ich mir selbst seit langer Zeit ebenfalls


    Warum machen die Gold Produzenten das nicht?


    Einige Gründe dafür sind seit längerer Zeit bekannt:


    Finanzielle Abhängingkeit der Gold/Silber Produzenten von den direkt, oder indirekt Preis manipulierenden Gold/Silber Bullion Banken.


    Wichtigste grosse Gold/Silber Produzenten, (wurden?) werden von den Gold/Silber Bullion Banken kontrolliert, und für ihre Ziele eines tieferen Gold Preises eingesetzt. (Barrick Gold, Placer Dome, Anglo Gold, etc.)


    Die offizielle Interessen Vertretung der Gold Produzenten, ist leider nicht etwa das "Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee" *GATA*, sondern, das dem Gold Kartell nahestehende "World Gold Council" *WGC*, dass in der Vergangenheit, und bis heute, sich bei Gold Anhängern, durch ihre bestenfalls Gold Preis neutralen Prognosen, und Veröffentlichungen, einen sehr schlechten Ruf erworben hat.


    *GATA* wird durch Mitgliedsbeiträge von über die ganze Welt verstreuten Gold Bugs, und durch Unterstützungsbeiträge von kleinen bis mittleren Gold/Silber Produzenten finanziert.


    *WGC* hingegen wird aus einem prozentualen Anteil der Gold Verkäufe ihrer in der (Vergangenheit?) hauptsächlich dem Gold Hedging (Gold Vorwärtsverkäufe) verschriebenen, und vom Gold Kartell kontrollierten Gold, und Silber Produzenten finanziert.


    Es gab schon einige Ansätze zur Selbsthilfe von kleineren Gold Produzenten initialisiert, die bis jetzt wenigstens, nur von geringem Erfolg gekrönt waren. Unter anderem haben einige Gold Produzenten versucht, Dividenden Zahlungen, wahlweise nicht mehr nur in "Fiat Money" auszuschütten, sondern auf Wunsch in echtem Gold.


    Gold Corp. Canada hatte letztes Jahr, bei den Gold Anlegern ein überwältigend positives Echo ausgelöst, als sie bekanntgab, einen Teil ihrer Gold Produktion nicht zu verkaufen, sondern zurückzuhalten und für Gold Corp. werterhöhend anzusparen. Als dann Gold Corp. Canada, im Dezember 2003, wie aus heiterem Himmel, aus mir unerklärlichen Gründen, die zwischenzeitlich angesparten ansehlichen Gold Mengen auf den Markt warf, und damit mithalf einen gerade vom Gold Kartell inszenierten Gold Preis Abverkauf, bewust, oder unbewusst, nocht zu unterstützten, hat der Gold Corp. *GG*, nicht nur gewaltig Sympatien der Gold Bugs gekostet, sondern seit damals, hat der Kurs der Gold Corp. Aktie, nicht nur wegen dem tieferen Goldpreis, und weil vielleicht mit 18.- Dollar pro Aktie damals eine relative Überbewertung vorlag, eigentlich nur noch nachgegeben. Bis runter auf einen Kurs von 10.50 Dollar pro Aktie.


    Heutiger Kurs war 11.- Dollar.


    Aber es ist schon genau so wie Du vermutest!


    Die allermeisten Gold, und Silber Produzenten haben abgesehen von der *GATA*, leider bis heute, absolut keine Interessen Vertretung die diesen Namen auch verdient!


    Gruss


    ThaiGuru

    3004


    SILVER STANDARD RESSOURCES Hat ES getan. Kaum zu glauben, wenn das endlich Schule macht, ist es mit den Shorties aus!


    Haben 20 % ihres Cash-Bestandes in Silber getauscht und halten nun 2 Millionen Unzen Silber.
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    Wallace, Idaho - Canadian Silver Standard, which has yet to mine an ounce of silver but is on the verge of pouncing into the producers' game, bought nearly 2 million ounces of silver on the market after close of business Wednesday. The official PR palaver went like this:


    "With cash of $61 million, and marketable securities of approximately $10 million at March 31, the company decided to invest approximately 20% of its ($71 million) cash and securities in physical silver following the decline in silver prices in April and May. Silver Standard now owns over 1.95 million ounces of silver. This silver is held on an allocated and segregated basis and, consequently, is not available to be loaned."

    Thunderbirdy


    #2990


    Danke Dir dafür dass Du die Zeit aufgewendet hat diese Abklärungen wegen der Nummerierung einzelner Postings in den Threads vorzunehmen.


    Dass eine Nummerierung unter dem Icon links unten beim Datum bereits besteht, war mir bekannt. Nur, diese Nummerierung ist NICHT Thread bezogen, sondern beinhalten alle Postings in diesem Board, egal in welchem Thread auch immer im Goldseiten-Forum veröffentlicht.


    Die von Goldbugs500 initierte Idee unsere Postings selbst mit Nummern zu versehen, finde ich prinzipiell sehr gut, wenn auch praktisch eher wenig hilfreich.


    Falls sich jemand sagen wir einmal in einem Monat, auf Dein Posting #2990 bezieht, und ein Leser eben dieses Posting #2990 nachlesen möchte, muss er sich trotzdem durch zig Seiten durchwühlen, bis er Dein altes Posting findet, weil eine Suchfunktion, bei der man eine bestimmte Posting Nummer eingeben, und danach auch anzeigen lassen kann anscheinend nicht existiert.


    Zudem besteht die Gefahr, dass mehrere User die gleiche Nummer verwenden, falls sie gerade gleichzeitig ein, oder mehrere Postings verfassen sollten, die sich überschneiden.


    Möchte nicht als Spielverderber gelten, aber diesen zusätzlichen Zeitaufwand für einer korrekte sich mit anderen Postings nicht überschneidende Nummerierung, mit den dadurch in meinem Fall, häufig nötigen Rückkontrollen, werde ich mir nicht zumuten, nur weil Abklärungen beim Board Entwickler ergeben haben, es sei keine Nummerierung in den jeweiligen Threads, die über das bereits berstehende System hinausgeht möglich.


    Eine solche Nummerierung ist mit Sicherheit möglich, genauso wie eine Einbindung von zusätzlichen Formats Endungen, die es uns Postern ermöglichen würde, weitere Charts, und Grafiken direkt zu verlinken, die das Bord System leider noch nicht als solche erkennt, und anzeigen kann.


    Vielleicht kostet das einige zusätzliche Euros?


    Ob unsere Wünsche, und Anregungen Goldseiten.de diese allfällige Investition Wert sind, kann ich leider selbst nicht beantworten, doch erhoffen darf ich es zumindest.


    Gruss


    ThaiGuru

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    May 14 - Gold $376.70 up $2.30 - Silver $5.71 up 11 cents


    Different Planets


    Zitat

    . . . Moreover, the global economy has moved into uncharted waters. Never before has a monetary authority embarked on a well-publicized monetary policy whose sole purpose is to boost asset prices in order to sustain consumption, and hence the economy, as is now the case in the United States. That such a desperate, and on many counts highly objectionable, monetary policy can only end in calamity should be clear, but what is less clear is precisely when disaster will strike and how the calamity will play itself out.


    Zitat

    Credit has to be given to Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan. He is the first head of a monetary authority who has not only managed to create a series of bubbles in a domestic economy, the United States, but also managed to create bubbles everywhere in the world -- in New Zealand and Australian dollars, emerging market debts, government bonds, commodities, emerging market equities, and capital spending in China. This is an achievement that no one else in the history of capitalism has ever accomplished, and one that investors will never forget once this universal bubble bursts and fills entire chapters of financial history books." Marc Faber, "Strategic Investing," April 7th issue


    As the markets are wont to do, instead of a wild volatile day in the gold pits and in the other financial markets, trading was very subdued. Gold came in lower, rallied after the CPI number, sold off again to the unchanged area, and then drifted back up late in the day. The volume was very light.


    Silver was firmer all day long and closed near its highs and HIGHER than the week before for the first time in six weeks. Technically, it appears silver has bottomed after an incredible massacre, one engineered by the price money managers.


    Neither gold, nor silver have any gaps to fill on the downside.


    The gold open interest fell 257 contracts to 255,231 and the silver open interest fell 425 contracts to 91,046.


    Some fundamental news input from my STALKER source. Business is very brisk in London and Zurich as far as bullion is concerned. A decent amount of that buying is coming out of wealthy individuals who live in Saudi Arabia. They don’t buy for one second what the vice-governor of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority said in his Reuters interview yesterday about gold being "a relic." They probably know it was a planted statement also. Muhammad Al-Jasser, who gave the interview, could be the new designated spokesman for The Gold Cartel in Europe now that Ernst Welteke, former Bundesbank head, has been sacked.


    Oil closed in all-time high ground at $41.38,up 30 cents.


    The dollar closed down .35 to 91.80, while the euro rose .58 to 118.69.


    Gold has a way to go to prove itself as far as a technical turnaround is concerned. First stop is a close above $380. If cleared, we should head back up to the $390/$395 area and gold might do so very quickly. A close above $395 sets our sights on $430 again.


    With oil making all-time highs, US rates still at 1%, and the geo/political situation in Iraq continuing to deteriorate, the gold fundamentals remained at "10+++" or even went up a notch. Meanwhile, the gold sentiment and despair out there over the last six week debacle is sky high (low is more like). We now have a set up for gold to explode. It might even be a picture perfect scenario. The same for silver.

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    The John Brimelow Report


    Portuguese; Interesting UBS on CFTC


    Friday, May 14, 2004


    Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $8.34, PM $7.56, with world gold at $373.85 and $ 373.50. Comfortably above legal import level. Financial markets in India continue traumatized by the electoral victory of the leftish Congress Party. The rupee slipped almost 1% to a gold-import unfriendly 4 ½ month low. The stock market collapsed by 6.1%. That, of course, could be gold friendly, since it implies less competition from an alternative asset class. No evidence has yet emerged that India’s current gold import regulations are threatened.


    Japan displayed no interest in gold today, with the yen low but steady. TOCOM volume shriveled 55% to a derisory 10,903 Comex equivalent and open interest dropped the equivalent of 742 Comex lots. The active contract was up 3 yen, but world gold was down $1.80 from the end in NY on offshore selling. Mitsubishi reports:


    "Loco Ldn gold was under pressure by dealers selling to the low."


    (NY yesterday traded 59,817 contracts. Open interest fell 257 lots.)


    Once again, a backdrop of very gold-positive news failed to rally bullion as ready sellers came forward to quench any appetite. Estimated volume surged 44% in the last half hour (10%) of the trading day, blocking gold’s recovery from the day’s low.


    UBS makes an interesting comment about the upcoming CFTC data:


    Zitat

    "COTR data, to be released after tonight will show the degree of long liquidation and new short selling that has entered the gold market recently. We suspect that the release will show that funds held net long positions of around 8-9 million ounces in size as of Tuesday. If the net long position has fallen by more than we are expecting, however, the market could react very positively."


    Late yesterday, the Bank of Portugal admitted the sale of another 35 tonnes of gold, "with settlement in May". The fact that this minor amount was sold "in recent months" rather than in a brief time supports the argument of those who believe the Portuguese have complex derivative obligations which trigger from time to time at higher prices. And, of course, the failure even by this relatively punctilious Central Bank to report these sales monthly underlines the unreliability of Central Bank reporting on gold.


    JB

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH


    The DOW came back from an early drubbing, however, it couldn’t hold any kind of rallies, even with the bonds rising 24/32 to 104 12/32. The best that can be said for the DOW is the PPT managed to give it a close above 10,000 at 10,012, up 2. The DOG was hopeless all day long, finishing at 1904, down 22.


    The US economic numbers were mixed. Capacity utilization at 76.9% and industrial production, up .8%, were fractionally better than expected. The highly suspicious CPI numbers came out with the core CPI up more than expected:


    May 14 (Bloomberg) -- Prices paid by U.S. consumers in April rose 0.2 percent, the fifth straight increase, reflecting higher costs for hotel stays, medical care and college tuition.

    The increase in the consumer price index followed a 0.5 percent gain in March, the Labor Department said in Washington. Excluding food and energy, the so-called core index rose 0.3 percent after a 0.4 percent rise. –END-


    A slight consumer confidence disappointment:


    May 14 (Bloomberg) -- The University of Michigan's preliminary index of consumer sentiment for May was 94.2, the same as a month earlier and less than forecast.

    The university's expectations index, which measures optimism about the next one to five months, fell to 85.8 from 87.3 last month. The current conditions index, based on perceptions of consumers' financial situation and whether it's a good time to make big purchases, rose to 107.2 from 105 in April. –END-


    One of the big surprises of the day, one which will effect US import prices:


    May 14 (Bloomberg) -- China's consumer prices rose in April at their fastest pace in seven years, led by food, which may harden the government's resolve to restrict lending and clamp down on industrial projects that are encroaching on farm land.

    The consumer price index, which measures the cost of goods and services, increased 3.8 percent from a year earlier after rising 3 percent in March, according to Beijing-based Mainland Marketing Research Co. (China), which releases monthly figures on behalf of the statistics bureau. The gain was the biggest since March 1997 and exceeds the government's 3 percent average inflation target.


    -END-


    GATA’s Mike Bolser:


    Hi Bill:


    The Fed added $4 Billion in temporary repurchase agreements today May 14th 2004, an action the moved the repo pool down a bit from $34.87 Billion to $32.87 Billion. The repo 30-Day ma remains in a straight up slope while the DOW's ma has turned flat. The overall position of the DOW's ma is well within reasonable striking distance of the projected linear path that intercepts a 11,750 level on Labor Day 2004.


    Watch the yen


    As the dollar rises the yen falls by the same percent. This pattern has been roughly in place since the dollar and euro were last at parity on December 5th 2002. This relative currency pattern can be viewed at my website:


    http://www.pbase.com/gmbolser/interventional_analysis.


    The appearance is that the Japanese are buying the dollar with their currency in order to support it thus distributing the inflationary effect of printing money in order to buy it. The Japanese have for a long time purchase US bonds to artificially prop the US bond market.


    There's a limit to the yen debasement and that limit was last reached at yen =134 in January 2002. At that point the Japanese gold community awoke and began a gold rush that quickly attracted attention with stories of elderly ladies with wheel barrows loading their metal into double-parked Hondas.


    So the Fed plan to spread around the currency debasement which results from inflation among witting partners really isn't a sustainable plan at all, it is a delaying tactic like all the other tactics emanating from Greenspan.


    Colored paper


    The 50 Billion Dinara note from Yugoslavia is interesting to contemplate.


    Will there be a time in our near future when a $50 Billion US dollar note will circulate? At a restaurant, will we someday ask how much should the tip be...$1 or $2 Billion?


    Gold is wealth and colored paper is backed lately by the full faith and credit of Bill Clinton and George Bush....or whoever the Yugoslavian gentleman was on the face of the Dinara note.


    Mike


    Chuck checked in last evening:


    Bill:

    You quoted Biggs yesterday. I can't remember your exact quote, but today in USA Today it quoted him as saying at exactly 2 PM when the market was down 180 points that this market is the most oversold in 20 years. If that is a true quote, it represents one of the most flagrant manipulations that I have ever seen. This market has dropped 700 points of under 7% compared to 1987 (17 years ago) and even 2001-02, (4000 points) and yet he can say with a straight face on national tv that this drop is more oversold than those drops. And then have the market rally all the way back. I am certain that he must have sold into the rally that he caused (along with some of his influential friends.) This should be investigated.


    Bill, we are on the absolute verge of an amazing collapse in all of the markets. I don't include gold because I don't know who is left to sell. Get ready for the skeletons to come out of the financial closet.


    Interest rates are either going to explode or come down as stocks rupture here. I don't think anyone knows the answer. Hang in. It is going to be spectacular from here. No more of these rescue games. Chuck


    Houston's Dan Norcini:


    Hey Bill:


    Commitments of Traders this week is astonishing. A massive change is occurring in the composition of the gold market participants. As of this Tuesday, the fund category sold over 16,500 contracts, 11,578 of them being brand new shorts. The funds are now down to their smallest net long position since last July 2003 when the gold price was trading near $350. At that time the fund net long position was at 39,409. With today’s release their net short position is at 38,016. In looking back over the last year the lowest level the fund net long position reached was 21,000 or so in both April 2003 and July 2003. Both times saw that as the bottom for the gold price. We are about 17,000 contracts from that point and if the fund longs continue to liquidate at this rate and the fund shorts continue to add on at the current rate, we will be at that level within the next week or so. That should be interesting to watch to see if the pattern holds and the market then begins to move up.


    Another very significant point - The commercial category DID EVERY BIT OF NET BUYING in the gold pit from May 5- May 11. That buying was to the tune of nearly 20,000 contracts. That is huge and I mean HUGE. They too are now down to the smallest net short position they have had since July 2003. The kind of buying now taking place is quality buying by jewelry and refining interests and such not to mention mining outfits who are eliminating hedges. The reason I state this is because the COMMERCIAL LONG category is now carrying the largest long position (83,705 longs) they have had in over a year and a half. As a matter of fact, the last time they were anywhere near this loaded on the long side was back in March 2003 when they were carrying a bit over 73,500 longs. That was two weeks before gold bottomed near 319 and then went directly to 372.


    From where I am currently sitting, gold is coming to an important crossroads. If the composition continues to change the way it has been doing for some time now with the funds moving off the long end to the short side and big commercial interests either covering shorts or going long, gold needs to find a bottom here fairly soon. We certainly do not want to see the funds completely on the short side of gold since their selling could then push the market considerably lower. I do not expect that to happen but then again I did not expect gold to break under $380 either.


    Open interest has increased some 8,300 contracts since last Tuesday’s release through this Thursday. What is significant in my opinion is that if you start at Friday of last week and take the numbers through yesterday, open interest has basically gone nowhere. It was at 253,594 last Friday and as of Thursday this week it is at 255,231; not much in the general scheme of things but significant in this regards -


    New buyers and new sellers are slowly entering the arena as it appears the drain in open interest has stopped for now. This is symptomatic of a market in a range trade that is deciding which way it now wants to move. It is now attracting both fresh longs and fresh shorts to replace those who are bailing out and liquidating positions. We will need to keep a close eye on any continued build in Open Interest especially if it occurs while gold continues to move back and forth within its current range between 371 and 385. The longer it can maintain this chop without violating either downside support or upside resistance as more and more buyers and sellers join the battle, gold will be poised for a significant move in one direction or the other as a great deal of pent up energy will be released. Either the shorts will panic if we break thru the topside resistance or the longs will throw in the towel if support near 371 is taken out. If the former, then we will see $395-$400 gold fairly quickly in my opinion. If the latter, I would prefer not to even think about that.


    One side note – with the beating gold has taken of late, in Euro terms, it is now nearly the same price it was at the beginning of 2002! Another way of looking at this is that every single European investor who might have bought gold in January 2002 as a hedge against terrorism or simply in an attempt to retain value has gotten a measly 8 Euro gain per ounce as of today in his gold holdings in the last 2 ½ years.


    That is how thorough a job the cartel has done in clocking the yellow metal.

    Dan Norcini
    dnorcini@earthlink.net


    Different Planets


    Often it seems many in our crowd, like me, live on different planets than many of the Wall Street crowd. In general they see the US economy booming, corporate profits on a roll, inflation subdued and the future for US financial markets to be quite positive. Our camp sees the US economy as topping out as the tax cuts and government fiscal economic stimulus run their course, corporate profits maxing out as a result, inflation soaring and a dismal outlook for US stock and bond markets. Many of also see the US markets as managed, especially gold, and feel the economic reports coming out of Washington are doctored to suit Wall Street and the Administration’s political objectives. Most of them on Wall Street have no idea what we are talking about or they scoff at our notions.


    The Café is an eclectic group with many viewpoints, so I want to make it clear I am generalizing and speaking for myself and those who I communicate with on a frequent basis.


    Many of us think as this Café member who sent the following today:


    Bill


    Today I sit gaping at the record crude price and the bloated and top-heavy dollar, overvalued equities and vulnerable bonds, and marvel at the disconnect from the so-called expert analysis media and official government doctored numbers and rhetoric. It seems to me that truly precious little stands between the current economic wreckage still under construction and the inevitable corrective reaction. It is only a matter of time before things get very ugly.


    Bill, what irritates and angers me the most is the fact that this gold cabal is making every attempt to make it as difficult and painful as possible for people to protect themselves in the time left before the US$ system goes into a nosedive into what could become a freefall and then into a unthinkable tailspin.


    How did we ever get this far along in the implementation of official economic madness? I'm just shaking my head at the epidemic consensual denial of what appear to be the warning signals of nothing less than an impending disaster.


    Tom K


    I agree with Tom. I don’t whether a disaster is impending, or is coming down the road over the coming year, but one is coming. The Orwellians in the US Government and financial system have messed around with the markets and truth too long. The dam, they have plugged up for so long, is quietly breaking. When they go and put their finger in a leak in the dyke these days, another one pops up:


    *Inflation is on a roll in the US, yet you wouldn’t know it by the relatively tame CPI reports. Wall Street might accept them. Mainstream does not. Report after report is coming in about housewives going nuts over the cost of milk, etc. The high cost of gasoline has many shook up, as do soaring health costs. This is what counts to the average American, not a hedonically adjusted CPI number which takes into account alternative rent costs and sinking computer prices. The CPI is a farce.


    *The PPT can ramp up the DOW when it wants, however, the insiders don’t buy it. They continue to unload on rallies. Even the public is becoming skeptical as mutual fund flows have turned negative for two months in a row. The US stock market might be oversold, however, it is susceptible to a dramatic sell-off at anytime.


    *Long term rates are soaring, even as the Fed refuses to raise the short-term rate. They speak of how wonderful our economy is and then are too afraid to raise the short-term rate a lousy .25 basis points. It doesn’t jive. As a result, real US interest rates continue to go more negative, which is very gold friendly.


    *Who would ever have believed oil could make all-time highs and gold would be drubbed for $60 and sent concurrently plunging during the weeks leading up this high? Price Action Makes Market Commentary. The Gold Cartel and Working Group on Financial Markets know inflation is on the rise and our bond market in trouble, thus an all court press was put on gold, as described in last Sunday’s MIDAS. More than one Wall Street pundit was heard this week pointing to the falling gold price as an indication inflation was not a problem. What a farce!


    The worse farce of all is so many in the many stream investment world and the public are taken in by this disingenuous drivel. They are going to pay a heavy price for living on that other planet. Today, a Café member told me a radio commentator on a national financial market program said (referring to the Smart Money magazine article), "There is a nut in Dallas named Bill Murphy who says he has every penny in gold and silver investments." In essence, many on our planet who have a significant portion of their assets in gold and silver investments are looked on as aliens by many of the mainstream Wall Street crowd. Well, while disgusted with what The Gold Cartel has done to my portfolio and our camp the last six weeks, I am more confident that ever about what is coming. The crowd on our planet will be the ones with the big smiles on our faces in the months and years to come. We had better think about an immigration policy for we are likely to be overrun by the Wall Street followers panicking to leave their planet and land on ours.


    ***


    Ende Teil I

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH


    Teil II


    From a subscription based oil news service sent by Café member Mark:


    "I dabble in the oil tanker markets. Something few folks know is that the breaking price for tankers is at all time high-ship breaking runs around 400-450 a ton-the worldwide ban on single hull tankers has pushed the scrapping tonnage up exponentially as 2007 is the closing date-comparatively there is little scrap vessel tonnage left."


    Shanghai. (Interfax-China) - The Chinese government plans to upgrade its local oil fleet to bring its imported crude oil delivery capacity up to 50 mln tons by 2005. The fleet will mainly deal with imports from the Middle East and West Africa, said a senior official with the Ministry of Communications.


    Four leading domestic carriers, the China Shipping Group (CSG), the China Ocean Shipping Group Corp. (COSCO), the China Merchants Group (CMG) and the the Nanjing Tanker Corp. (NTC) under the China Changjiang National Shipping Group (CSC), will collaborate with the two local oil majors, PetroChina and Sinopec, in forming the fleet.


    The target is to raise the proportion of foreign oil shipped to China by Chinese tankers to 50% in 2005, when approximately 100 mln tons of foreign oil will be brought into China. Currently, Chinese oil carriers only ship around 10% of the foreign oil imported to China each year……..


    The International Energy Agency said on Tuesday that the rapid acceleration of economic growth and surges in Chinese domestic consumption will lead to world oil demand rising by 1.95 million barrels per day. This is 270,000 bpd more than what was forecast in April by the Paris based International Energy Agency (IEA). World oil demand is set to rise to as much as 80.6 million bpd, or 226,5 billion tonnes annually. The increase in the IEA's forecast is equivalent to 92,4 million tonnes annually. Assuming that a major share of the extra oil will be transported by tankers, the employment outlook for the world tanker fleet is looking positive.


    According to the FT, global oil refinery capacity could be stretched to the limit if current consumption estimates are achieved. This will cause oil prices to remain above current record levels at US$40 per barrel in New York for some time to come.


    US gasoline demand, which is currently running at 5% above last year's levels, and soaring Chinese oil usage are the two main factors driving the higher consumption forecasts from the IEA. Not helped by spring refinery shutdowns, possibly offset by a lower demand for heating oil in Europe and the USA, oil prices continue to rise. Opec admitted this morning that it was powerless to act, and despite intentions to increase production, oil prices are heading for all-time highs. The situation is expected to tighten further in the run-up to Christmas, the peak time for oil usage in the developed world.


    -END-


    Does that sound like China is slowing down? MIDAS recently reported of a Chinese task force in Chile looking to substantially increase their copper production and supply in the years to come. What slowdown?


    Anyone heard of an "official" confirmation of the bin Laden gold reward tape? Answer so far: NO! Figures!


    From the second edition of THE Hedge Book, the Virtual Metals/Haliburton hedging survey on behalf of Mitsui:


    Zitat

    "Q1 04 saw another large fall in the global gold hedge book, with the Hedge Impact falling by 2.5 Moz to 68.3 Moz."


    Which means the gold producers covered as gold ran up to $430, which once again proves GATA’s point there was an organized attempt by The Gold Cartel to keep gold from blowing through $430. In the past, The Gold Cartel would use the cover of gold producer selling to explain why the gold price was falling, or not rising as it should. They can’t do that anymore and get away with it. As we know, the gold open interest rose to around 306,000, a record. So who were those guys who were the sellers, if not even partially gold producers who were instead BUYING? The Gold Cartel and friends of course!


    From GATA’s Sid Reynolds in Australia last evening:


    Hi Bill,


    2 good things to report:


    1)In Australian $ gold has barely changed in last month ie around A$550/oz ($A has fallen from 80c to 68c)


    2) With gold and silver staying down, it can't have all been paper manipulation, else as you've pointed out repeatedly any paper manipulation without physical would result in immediate recovery from any falls. So this means the cartel must have used a huge amount of physical which means they surely will run in next month.


    Regards, Sid


    On Saudi official sector gold supply:


    Hi Bill,


    Found some info. on the WGC site regarding Saudi central bank gold reserves. Saudi Arabia started reporting or acquiring gold reserves in 1957 which is quoted at 14 metric tons fine gold for that year. The figure reached 96 tons in 1973, 141 tons in 1978 and remained consistent, peaking at 143 tons 1998 -- the last reported year. See Adobe pg. 20 for the Saudi statistics. The reference at the bottom of the page is the IMF (International Monetary Fund).


    Gregg


    http://www.gold.org/pub_archive/pdf/Rs23.pdf


    -END-


    Mahendra sent this to his members and to myself for Café members:


    Dear Bill/Members,


    This note I am writing after have good time in meditations and off-course after sending this email I will enjoy more in peace.


    I was expecting upward move in metals from Tuesday to Thursday in current week but didn't happen except Wednesday open very strong. According to my newsletter tomorrow should be weak trading day for metal but here I want make small correction that in Asia and Europe metal will trade weak but not in last two hours of New York trading that is why I am writing to my members and Bill. Here (Santa Barbara) I have lot of extra free time so taking advantage of it and doing deeper study in astrology and planetary movements. Yesterday and today I did in-depth study on metals and it’s current movement because metal community has lot of faith in my work and it is my duty to guide them when time and scenario is most uncertain. So here is out come and final predictions:


    Moon may help tomorrow - We haven't seen upward trend during this week instant of strong Moon so I don't see downward also on Friday especially in last two hours because Moon is playing hidden game that did on Wednesday when gold/silver open strong and closed weak. Friday metal stocks and metals should do exceedingly well in last two hours in New-York.


    Sun transit - Any time tomorrow or during next gold will bottom-out and once again I am reminding you that these prices will be history. Also other planetary combinations are favouring metal so metal will approach toward to new high soon.


    From 14 April to 15 May was bad period for everybody even those who were not in market.


    I WILL WRITE MORE IN DETAIL ON MONDAY BUT STILL I RECOMMEND VERY STRONGLY PUTTING MONEY IN METAL AT THIS LEVEL.


    HOLD -IF YOU CAN,


    BUY IF YOU HAVE CASH,


    BUT DON’T SELL AT THIS POINT,IF YOU HAVE 1% FAITH IN ME. I ADVISED SAME LAST YEAR WHEN GOLD DROPPED TO $318. Time will be answer.


    REMINDER: YOU ALL KNOW THAT FOR 2004 I AM VERY POSITIVE IN SILVER, OIL AND OTHER METALS and NEGATIVE ON STOCK MARKET and ALL OTHER CURRENCIES AGAINST GOLD.


    I hope you will understand my message on gold.


    Thanks & God Bless


    Mahendra

    http://www.mahendraprophecy.com


    The Netherland's Eric Hommelberg:


    Hi Bill,


    Ever saw such a bearish attitude towards Gold and its shares ? People are really panicking out of their Gold stocks lately thereby pushing the Gold shares into its deepest over-sold territory in 6 years ! I can’t help but to think that a we’re at the verge of a very powerful upward move in Gold shares . When people ask me what to do I always tell them to take a few steps back and look at the big picture. You’ll notice that :


    1 - Stocks never tend to stay either in deeply oversold or in deeply overbought area for a long period of time.


    2 - A deeply oversold HUI always bounces back >50% in a relative short period of time. Yes, even during the worst years of the bear market in Gold this was the case ! See chart below !


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/LaunchPadA.gif]


    3 – Last time we’ve witnessed a severe oversold condition in the Gold shares was March 2003 when the HUI hit a bottom at 112. The Bull couldn’t be stopped until the HUI reached 258.


    So where are we right now ? Indeed right in the deepest oversold territory of the last 6 years !


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/LaunchPadB.gif]


    So the HUI took a dive to 163 and finds itself in the deepest oversold territory of the last 6 years. According to its own history we could witness a sharp upward correction any time soon which will launch the HUI well over 200 in a short period of time !


    Best,
    Eric



    The gold shares were firm right from the get-go and plowed their way higher for most of the trading session. The XAU wound up at 81.21, up 1.12. The HUI finished at 177.37, up 3.84. A close above 184, Wednesday morning’s spike high, could give impetus for a powerful upside move in this VERY oversold index.


    HUI, like silver, made a weekly recovery high:


    http://bigcharts.marketwatch.c…&o_symb=hui&freq=1&time=8


    Those buying the gold/silver shares this week into this recent bloodbath ought to come up smelling like roses in the weeks ahead.


    GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!


    MIDAS


    Appendix


    BILL COMING DUE


    By PAUL THARP
    The NY Post
    May 14, 2004


    http://www.nypost.com/business/20852.htm


    May 14, 2004 --

    Price tag shock is heading into stores by Memorial Day due to soaring wholesale prices, with dairy prices jumping to their highest levels in 58 years.


    Retailers also are suffering a new shopping slump after their biggest boom in a year and could get hit harder when higher prices kick in, analysts say.


    Labor Department data yesterday show factory and producer prices jumping more than twice the level that economists had expected - due primarily to soaring crude oil and a shortage of raw materials being devoured at China's booming factories.


    Some companies want to pass added costs to consumers right away, such as paint giant Sherwin-Williams, which in the past year has spent about a quarter more for its petroleum used in paint-making.


    Industry data are as grim as the government's, with the private Institute for Supply Management saying that prices paid for raw materials surged in April at their highest pace in 25 years.


    The government said prices of steel-mill products, for example, are at their highest rate in 30 years, surging 6.3 percent in April alone, the biggest monthly jump since a 6.8 gain in July 1974.


    The list of double-digit jumps in wholesale prices in the past year is long. Refrigerators are up 13.3 percent; animal feed, up 31.8 percent. Chicken is up 18.3 percent, cooking oil's up 28 percent and eggs are 23.3 percent higher.


    Analysts blame soaring oil prices, soaring above the the $40-a-barrel level this week.


    "These prices are economy wreckers," said Peter Beutel, energy analyst at Cameron Hanover. "The emergency is here and now."


    Some economists fear a domino effect from the wholesale price squeeze.


    Major airlines already are passing along a fuel surcharge on cargo rates, a boost of as much as one-third, and are planning similar hikes for passenger fares, say industry sources.


    Producer prices in April rose 0.7 percent, higher than the 0.3 percent economists expected. Retail sales last month skidded 0.5 percent following an 8 percent gain the prior month. Consumers avoided purchases of cars and clothing - two of the largest spending categories - the Commerce Department said.


    The agency, in an effort to put a calming effect on the way consumers' paychecks are being eaten up, said that if cars and clothing were carved out of its data, retail sales would have gained a healthy 9.4 percent in April.


    Likewise, if food and energy wholesale prices, which account for two of the biggest spending items among consumers - were carved out, the wholesale inflation rate would have been a tame 0.2 percent.


    Economists are bracing for possible surprises in today's report on how much consumer prices actually rose in April.

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.rosbaltnews.com/doc/img/logo-rosbalt-en.gif]


    http://www.rosbaltnews.com/2004/05/15/66586.html


    Rosbalt, 14/05/2004, 09:05

    Gold Reserves Up; Central Bank Reports Current Total at USD 83.4 Billion


    MOSCOW, May 14. Russia's gold reserves as of May 7, 2004, stood at USD 83.4 billion, not taking short-term obligations into account, Russia's Central Bank announced Thursday through its press office. The total for the week ending April 30 was USD 82.7 billion.

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.iii.co.uk/icons/logos/uk_logo.gif]


    http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?t…id=4974904&action=article


    Breaking news


    LONDON (AFX) - AIM-listed Bema Gold Corporation posted a net loss of 14.2 mln usd on revenue of 19.7 mln for the first quarter.


    The loss during the quarter was due mainly to a non operating write down of 8.5 mln in the carrying value of the Yarnell property located in Yavapai County, Arizona.


    In the first quarter of 2003, Bema reported restated net income of 8.1 mln usd on revenue of 11.5 mln.


    Gold revenue in the first quarter totaled 19.7 mln usd on sales of 49,989 ounces at an average realized price of 393 usd per ounce.


    The Julietta Mine accounted for 6.4 mln usd from the sale of 17,099 ounces of gold at an average price of 371 per ounce, while 13.3 mln was contributed by the Petrex Mines from 32,890 ounces sold at an average price of 405 per ounce. Gold revenue increased by 71 pct over the first quarter of 2003 mainly due to the higher spot gold price and the acquisition of the Petrex Mines in February 2003.


    In the first quarter of 2003 gold revenue totaled 11.5 mln usd on sales of 35,100 ounces at an average realized price of $329 per ounce.


    The Julietta Mine contributed 5.8 mln from 18,586 ounces sold at an average price of 313 per ounce while 5.7 mln was contributed by the Petrex Mines from 16,514 ounces sold at an average price of 346 per ounce.


    rn

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