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But the knock-on effect of the hike in the value of the rand is being sorely felt in the earnings of South African gold miners such as Gold Fields (GFI - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), Randgold Resources (GOLD - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), Harmony Gold Mining (HMY - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), and AngloGold Ashanti (AU - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating). With a stronger rand, the miners' exports are becoming less competitive. And the evidence is in the companies' recent results.
Gold Fields' net income decreased by nearly 50% in the first quarter this year, falling to $51.6 million from $104 million in the previous quarter. Harmony Gold Mining fared similarly, with net income down 45% to $35 million in the first quarter, and earnings for Randgold Resources down by 10% in the same period, to just $12.29 million.
It wasn't so long ago that the miners were faced with similar problems. In 2003, when platinum reached a 23-year high, the appreciating rand against the dollar meant that South African producers saw effective declines of 9% on the year as exports became uncompetitive.
The miners fear that just as the rand had begun to look like it had weakened for good, an unwelcome return to past levels of 6 rand to the dollar may be coming back to haunt them. But that is exactly what Japanese retail foreign exchange speculators are gunning for.
"We believe the new darling of the yen carry trade could be the South African rand," says David Karsboel, head of Market Strategy for Saxo Bank in Copenhagen. "It could happen if Japanese housewives grow tired of 8.25% interest rates in New Zealand and decide to look for 9.5% instead."