Alfons Gold und Rohstoffthread

Danke. Mir ist der Name nicht eingefallen. Du hast vollkommen Recht mit deiner Aussage. Ja so rächt sich halt der Russe mit niedrigen Ölpreisen bis die Branche in den USA pleite ist und mit hohen konstanten Palladiumpreisen über die letzten Jahre. Daneben werden die Reserven der Notenbank mit Gold immer mehr abgedeckt.

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Feb 20, 2020
It Takes 15 Months for Yield Curve Inversion To Be Felt

Chart In Focus
Fed Pulling Back from Repos at The Wrong Time
McClellan Financial Publications, Inc
Posted Mar 4, 2020
Febuary 28, 2020
The
Federal Reserve decided in September 2019 that it would start to insert
itself into the market for “repurchase agreements”, or repos. The
reasons why the Fed honchos decided that they needed to do that will be
an interesting subject for future historians. For current market
historians, the important point about the Fed’s intervention in the repo
market is that it was beneficial for stock prices to have the Fed
adding liquidity in this way. And the Fed’s gradual departure since
early January has meant a withdrawal of liquidity from the banking
system, and from investment accounts, which has put downward pressure on
stock prices. The novel coronavirus has only amplified that downward
pressure.
To understand the repo market, I suggest that you read What Is A Repurchase Agreement?
from the folks at Investopedia. The short version is that
a repo is a loan to a hedge fund. So if the Fed (or anyone) makes more
of those loans, then the hedge fund honchos have more money to pour
into the stock market. If you reduce such lending to hedge funds, then
they have to find other sources to borrow from or close out positions to
pay back the loan, and stock prices tend to fall.
The
stock market has been falling here in late February as investors worry
about the Covid-19 virus, which has been expanding its reach around the
world, and worrying everyone. That worry has helped to amplify every
other concern that investors might have about anything. The Fed’s job
is arguably to act as a dampening force, providing a counter-cyclical
input to the financial markets. They should be stimulating when
everyone is worried, and retarding when everyone is giddy.
That
does not appear to be what they are doing. Instead, the Fed is
following its predetermined plan to reduce its repo holdings,
irrespective of what the stock market is doing. The Fed is providing a
pro-cyclical amplification of liquidity force swings rather than a
dampening force.
The Fed’s forays into the repo market have been episodic. Here is a chart showing the full history:
The
Fed first got involved in the repo market back in 1999, as they were
worried about liquidity problems related to the Y2K issue (remember
that?). They held minimal levels of repos after that, until ramping up
again right after the 9/11 attacks. Their next big involvement came in
the 2008 financial crisis, and the Fed’s intervention helped the stock
market for a while.
But then the Fed inexplicably
pulled back just as Lehman was starting to collapse, and they pulled out
completely in January 2009, hastening the final push downward by stock
prices to the 2009 bottom. Here is a look at that era:
It
is pretty evident that the two plots are well correlated. So having
the Fed withdraw from the repo market tightens liquidity, and has a
depressing effect on stock prices. They are doing it now, too, just as
stocks are having their most rapid drop ever from an all-time high, and I
have to wonder, what are the Fed honchos thinking? Are they thinking?
Here
is a closer look at the 1999-2003 period, and once again we see a
general correlation between the Fed’s repo holdings and the movements of
stock prices.
The
Fed has stated that it intends to continue to reduce its repo holdings.
If they follow through with that, then we can see in this week’s
charts what the effect should be on stock prices. But if the
coronavirus selloff gets the Fed to start rethinking its policy (as it
should do with interest rate policy as well), then this historical
perspective can help you know how to interpret any Fed announcements
about their future plans in the repo market.
***
Jul 25, 2019
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Fed Needs a Half Point Cut Now, and More Soon