Spekulative Silber-Hausse

""fundamental gibt es keinen Grund für steigende Silberpreise""

Kurz gesagt , Bullshit !

In der Medizin wird demnaechst mehr Silber verbraucht als bei Schmuck und Muenzen. In der Hygiene, beim LCD, Kuehlschrank, etc die Chinesen und Inder kaufen wird der Bedarf ebenfalls hoeher als der 4% mehr in der Produktion. Schau mal auf die letzten Zahlen Verbrauch und Angebot, Comexlager, kein Silber da fuer ETF.

Gruss

Eldo

What are the bullish fundamentals for silver? According to the Silver Institute (silverinstitute.org) and CPM Group (cpmgroup.com), each year about 600 million ounces of silver are mined, while about 870 million ounces of silver are consumed by industry, jewelry, and photography. The difference is largely met by recycling and investor selling. In 2004 however, investor selling ended as about 40 million ounces of silver was purchased by investors throughout the year, which drove silver prices up from a low of $4.15 to a high of $8.40/oz.

Historically, the silver to gold ratio was that 15 ounces of silver would be worth 1 oz. of gold. Today, with silver at $7.76/oz. and gold at $472, it takes just over 60 oz. of silver to buy one ounce of gold.

Have we hit "peak silver," like "peak oil"? Peak oil proponents maintain that there is about a 40-year supply of oil in reserves, worldwide. However, according to Ted Butler, (butlerresearch.com), there are only about 16 years of silver in in-ground reserves, worldwide. The silver to oil ratio hit a high of over 1 in 1980, as a $50 ounce of silver could buy more than a barrel of oil at $43/barrel. Today, with oil prices hitting $70/barrel, silver prices are at historic lows as compared to oil, as an ounce of silver recently was 1/10th the price of a barrel of oil.

But what about the existing above ground supply of silver? Precious metals are held privately, and are not able to be tracked or traced, so nobody truly knows what the above ground supply of silver of might be. However, experts maintain that about 40 billion ounces of silver has been mined throughout all of human history, and that about 90% of that has been irretrievably consumed by industry, jewelry, and photography. Most of the approximately 3-5 billion ounces of silver left is in the form of jewelry, mostly held in India. Silver that is in the form of above-ground, refined, deliverable, identifiable silver is about 150 million ounces, mostly held at COMEX. The U.S. government once held up to 6 billion ounces of silver, but around 2002, the U.S. ran out, and had to buy silver on the open market for its Silver Eagle coin program. The COMEX once had up to 1.5 billion ounces of silver about 10-15 years ago, but today has less than 1/10th of that: 117 million ounces.

Warren Buffet bought 129.7 million ounces of silver in 1997, and "concluded that equilibrium between supply and demand was only likely to be established by a somewhat higher price." Since then, numerous investment analysts and newsletter writers have grown increasingly bullish on silver prices, including: Ted Butler, David Morgan, Jim Puplava, Harry Schultz, Doug Casey, Richard Russell, Jason Hommel, and many others. With the addition of the CFTC and the SUA making the bullish case for silver, what knowledgeable silver analyst or commentator remains left to maintain a bearish outlook for silver prices?

So, if there is an impending shortage of silver, how have prices remained low? Well, there is no shortage of silver for industrial users (commercials) who have unrestricted access to silver; there is only a shortage of silver for very large investors (speculators), who are restricted by position limits. Silver prices are also low due to lack of monetary demand, and a general lack of interest or knowledge by most investors. Demonetization of silver started in the 1870's with Germany abandoning silver coinage to move to a gold standard. The last time 90% silver coins were minted in the U.S. for everyday monetary transactions was 1964.

So, how high will silver prices go? Conceivably, if investor and monetary demand continues to increase, silver may not be able to be priced in dollars if the dollar collapses completely. But how would silver be valued if not in terms of dollars? Well, about 100 years ago, when silver was used as money nearly worldwide, a day's wage varied between a silver dime to a silver dollar. A return of monetary demand worldwide, in conjunction with a silver shortage, could conceivably drive silver prices higher than historic norms.

Will higher silver prices hurt the economy? The SUA also says: "This removal of large quantities of physical silver [through a silver ETF] could have a negative impact on silver-industry specific employment as well as the overall economy, both through job losses and inflation." However, higher silver prices will also create jobs in the silver mining industry, which has been devastated by low silver prices. In fact, currently, there are no profitable public silver mining companies in the U.S. Most silver miners remain unprofitable in 2005, because oil and energy prices (which are a large part of mining costs) have risen much faster than silver prices.

Whether a silver ETF or whether the growing sense of a silver shortage will drive investor demand for silver remains to be seen.

Conclusion? If there really remains less than 150 million ounces of silver in above ground refined form, then there is about half of an ounce of silver per person in the U.S., which means that if you have a single ounce of silver, the SUA might say that you have "more than your fair share."

das ist mal wieder ein typischer Dummzünder eines Banksters:

Zitat

Die derzeitige Hausse beim Silber etwa bezeichnet Tobias Merath von Credit Suisse als Resultat purer Spekulation

X(Credit Suisse - wenn ich das schon lese.
Das dind genau die Ganoven, die mit "Silberkonten" ahnungslose Anleger aufs Kreuz legen.

Wie das funktioniert steht hier:

"Silberkonto"

Warum sollte es keine Spekulationsblase geben? Es müssen nur genügend Spekulanten im Markt aktiv sein. Dann steigen und fallen die Kurse unbahängig vom tatsächlichem Verbrauch. Rückschläge beim Silber werden kommen, ingendwann, und niemand kann dann sagen das er nicht gewarnt wurde.

Was den immer wieder gerne zitierten Warren Buffet angeht, so bewundere ich das er 1997 Silber gekauft hat. Aber letztlich weiß niemand ob er sein Silber noch hat. Bei einem Kaufpreis von 5,5$-6,5$ könnte er mittlerweile seine Gewinne schon lange realisiert haben.

Auch beim Silber Defizit bin ich sehr skeptisch. Das meiste Silber wird mit Metallen wie Kupfer,Zink oder Blei zusammen gefördert. Die Ausweitung der Förderung bei diesen Metallen bedeutet das sich das Silberdefizit verringert. Wie stark es sich verringert oder ob es sich dadurch ausgleicht kann ich leider nicht abschätzen. Der Silberpreis wird aber sicherlich langsamer steigen.

Gruß
Silbernadel

Natürlich kann es auch Spekulationsblasen beim Silber geben und natürlich wird es immer mal wieder Rückschläge geben.

Nur, Spekulanten können nicht ewig Kurse unabhängig von der realen Angebots-Nachfrage situation manipulieren.

Daß bei Silber ein Angebots-Defizit besteht, bestreitet ja eigentlich niemand. Das wird auch durch eine Ausweitung der Kupferproduktion nicht beseitigt werden können, denn die Kupferproduktion ist auf die Schnelle kaum noch auszuweiten, wie man auch an den beständig hohen Kupferpreisen sieht.

Der Credit Suisse-Berater hätte mal erklären können, warum er meint, hinter dem Silber-Aufschwung stecke nur Spekulation.

Viele Grüße

liberty

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Oh man, das gehört auch gut und gerne in Schuldenblases "Dummbabbel Thread"...

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Wieso das? Es… Anmelden oder registrieren

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Das ein Angebotsdefizit besteht bestreite ich nicht. Das Silberangebot hängt aber sehr stark… Anmelden oder registrieren