Wie geht es auf dem Goldmarkt weiter


    mvd
    bei Gold sehe ich noch einen Hintergrund . Die Banken können ihre Vorräte doppelt in den Büchern führen. Aber Silber, welches sich nicht mehr bei den Banken befinden sollte und im "Überfluß" in den Lagern "vergammelt" ?? dass man sich dies leiht ... das kann mit allen Berichten und Lagerzahlen nicht in Übereinstimmung gebracht werden

    Zitat

    Original von Schablonski
    Aber Silber, welches sich nicht mehr bei den Banken befinden sollte und im "Überfluß" in den Lagern "vergammelt" ?? dass man sich dies leiht ... das kann mit allen Berichten und Lagerzahlen nicht in Übereinstimmung gebracht werden


    Guter Punkt.


    Und die Lease Rates bei Silber habe ich mir auch garnicht angesehen.


    Andererseits hängt der POS aber auch schon sehr lange am POG und es reicht vieleicht noch immer beim Gold einzugreifen um damit das Silber mitzureißen. Dabei hat Silber sogar überreagiert, das Verhältnis lag heute am frühen Morgen bei über 55!


    Wäre ich in Papieren aktiv, würde ich jetzt sofort alles Gold in Silber tauschen. Mit meinen Atomen ist der Aufwand viel zu groß, deshalb beschränke ich mich auf den Zukauf von Silber.


    Gruß
    mvd

    Zitat

    Original von abc123
    Schablonski, ETFs können es auch nicht sein, weil die ihr Silber immer und ausschließlich physisch hinterlegt haben 8)


    abc
    ich versteh dich schon, frage mich aber warum die ETF's Silber leihen sollten? und dann der Kurs einstürzt? Ich glaube dass das geliehene Metall zur Preisdrückung eingesetzt wurde.

    Zitat

    Original von Schablonski
    ich versteh dich schon, frage mich aber warum die ETF's Silber leihen sollten? und dann der Kurs einstürzt? Ich glaube dass das geliehene Metall zur Preisdrückung eingesetzt wurde.


    Vermutlich, weil sie mehr Geld an Kunden verdienen, die oefter mal verkaufen und spaeter wieder kaufen als an Kunden, die stur ihre Position halten.

    Was wirklich läuft, erfahren wir in seltenen Fällen hinterher.


    Wenn es momentan schwierig ist, phys. Silber in ausreichenden Mengen zu bekommen (siehe das Kompetenzteam, es kann aber auch sein, dass die zu tranig waren mit ihrer Bevorratung) UND die lieben ETFs wirklich physisch hinterlegen wollen, dann könnten sie im Moment von anderen leihen, um die Kunden nicht zu verprellen.


    Vielleicht sind die ETFs gerade aber selbst eine gute Silberquelle und verleihen


    War auch mein erster Gedanke, aber für eine Zinssenkung braucht es einen Trigger (...welcher Form auch immer).

    Zitat

    Original von silverchiller
    gutso, also Goldpreis rauf, oder Population runter. Mal sehen welche Hemmschwelle bei den "Entscheidungsträgern" geringer ist.


    ;)


    Ich wage es nicht mir das auszumalen.


    ____________________


    Weil da eben der Seitenumbruch dazwischen kam, hier nochmal:



    Zitat

    Der inflationsbereinigte Goldpreis pro Anzahl Menschen auf der Erde.


    Als Inflation habe ich konservativerweise den CPI Faktor bezogen auf die USA herangezogen.


    Reicht aber auch so.



    Gruss,
    gutso

    Jason Hommel meldet sich mal wieder zu Wort



    by Jason Hommel


    Excellent Market Opportunities
    Why I'm not worried.
    Silver Stock Report
    by Jason Hommel, August 16, 2007


    My portfolio has suffered a 15% drop since July 31st. I suppose this is not too bad, considering that others in the precious metals industry have lost 50% to 60%. And I suppose this is great, considering that some who invested in junk mortgages have lost everything.


    Three times in the past 7 years, my portfolio has suffered 50% drops, and recovered to gain over 1000%. So, hopefully, this is about the bottom. After all, many mining stocks are literally dirt cheap, and trading at 52 week lows.


    I do not sell out of the sector; I never have, not in 7 years. I trade, but only to trade one stock for another, never holding more than about 5% in cash. The reason is because I can never predict these short term moves. Tomorrow, things could go up 10%, across the board in the metals stocks, who knows.


    All I know to do is to invest long term, and to buy things that are dirt cheap. My stocks were cheap yesterday, and they are even better bargains today.


    My top stock pick, and largest holding, remains Baja Mining. I own 588,700 shares.


    hat jemand dort subscribed und kennt sein Portfolio? 8)

    Waldfrosch


    Ich dachte du hast kapituliert und dein Zeug verkauft ?


    Oder hast es du wieder anders ueberlegt ?


    Ach der Hommel mit seinen Spreadsheets und 8000 USD fuer eine Unze Silber geht mir langsam auf dem Wecker.


    Jetzt wo er -15% kassiert hat pushed er gleich wieder seine Aktien damit er wieder in himmlische Bereiche kommt.


    Der mit seinen Top picks :D ;( ;( ;(

    Vor allem könnte es Hommel angesichts seiner NE Konzentration in der Luft zerfetzen, wenn die USA in eine Rezession kippen.
    Ich weiss nicht wies bei ihm mit Cashburnminen (Kreditlinien??? Dilution auf welchem Niveau???) aussieht, aber das dürfte dann ein zusätzliches Problem bei ihm werden.


    Na, dann finden sie wahrscheinlich plötzlich Gold, - zumindest bis er verkauft hat. :D



    Gruss,
    gutso

    Zitat

    Original von Waldfrosch
    Jason Hommel meldet sich mal wieder zu Wort




    hat jemand dort subscribed und kennt sein Portfolio? 8)



    hier haste den August.


    Die Biebelverse hab ich weggelassen. Hier kann man leicht gesperrt werden. :D
    Wenn Du die auch willst, schick mir ne PN.




    Here is the "Look at my Portfolio" for August.



    .).


    This month's report is accurate as of the evening of Tuesday, July 31, 2007, with silver at $12.86/oz.
    This is a multi-million dollar portfolio, just over $12 million dollars.


    Here's how to read a few symbols in the list below:
    First, I list the company name. Next, I list how I acquired the stock, and whether it is tradable.
    "PP-hold" means I bought the stock in a "Private Placement", and is restricted from being traded.
    "FT" means the stock is now "Free Trading" and the hold time from the private placement has expired.
    "OM" means I bought the stock on the "Open Market", not through a PP or Private Placement.
    Next, I list the number of average days worth of trading volume of the stock that I hold, so that you can understand the relative size of my positions, to help you understand concerns about liquidity, and the difficulty I might have if I were to sell those stocks. If I own 1 day or less, I list it as "1 days".
    Next, I list the primary metal that the company is exploring for, or developing: whether silver, gold, zinc, copper, moly, or other.
    Next, I list symbols that work at Yahoo! Finance. Then, I list the website link for your further due diligence, then additional information, if any, such as a recent article. Everything in bold is new from the previous month.


    Physical silver is my largest holding, and is about 20% of my overall portfolio.
    PHYSICAL SILVER BARS AND COINS. (10 day's trading volume? 190,000 ounces) (no futures positions) I have 1000 oz. bars, 100 oz. bars, 10 oz. bars, 90% bags, and 1 oz. generic "rounds". The value of each item in the group below, individually, is worth less than 10% of the portfolio.


    Baja Mining, OM: (1 days) Copper: (BAJ.TO, BAJFF.PK) http://www.bajamining.com/
    Silver Grail, PP (all FT): (72 days) Silver & Gold: (SVG.V) http://www.silvergrail.com/
    Azteca Gold Corp, PP (all FT): (64 days) Silver & Gold: (AZG.V) http://www.azteca-au.com/
    The value of each item in the group above, individually, is worth more than 6% of the portfolio.
    The value of each item in the group below, individually, is worth less than 6% of the portfolio.


    My family cabin in Tahoe. (Appraisal estimate) The cabin is fully paid for (no debt). I'd sell, because it's real estate, but the cabin is a priceless family treasure, right on the ski slope. I have no other home. I rent where I live in Penn Valley, which is a nice, upscale, large, 4 bedroom house (on 5 acres, with a pond, a garden, a large lawn) that recently sold for $750,000, for $1900/month.
    Coronado Resources, OM & PP (FT): (7 days) Copper & Gold (CRD.V CRDAF) http://www.coronadoresourcesltd.com/
    Tumi Resources, PP (all FT) & OM: (10 days) Silver (TM.V, TUMIF.OB) http://www.tumiresources.com/en/
    Canadian Zinc, OM: (2 days) Zinc & Silver (CZN.TO, CZICF.PK) http://www.canadianzinc.com/
    Metalline Mining, PP (all FT): (1 days) Zinc & Silver: (MMG) http://www.metalin.com/
    Exploration Syndicate, PP: (??? days) (no symbol; not publicly trading) (valued at $1/share)
    The value of each item in the group above, individually, is worth more than 3% of the portfolio.
    The value of each item in the group below, individually, is worth less than 3% of the portfolio.


    CASH! This is a fairly good cash amount; comfortable. More cash makes me nervous, because cash is trash. Less cash makes me nervous, because I need the liquidity to trade and to live.
    Ascendant Copper Corp, OM: (2-20 days) Copper (ACX.TO, ASCPF.PK) http://www.ascendantcopper.com/
    Douglas Lake Minerals, PP-hold: (18 days) Gold (DLKM.OB) http://www.douglaslakeminerals.com/
    Selwyn Resources (Pacifica), OM: (1 days) Zinc (SWN.V, SWNLF.PK) http://www.selwynresources.com/
    The value of each item in the group above, individually, is worth more than 2% of the portfolio.
    The value of each item in the group below, individually, is worth less than 2% of the portfolio.
    International Millennium, PP (FT): (26 days) Silver (IMI.V) http://www.immc.ca/ Has acquired 5 silver properties, and has acquired Cabo's silver properties.
    O.T. Mining Corp., PP (all FT): (15 days) Copper & Silver (OTMN.PK) http://www.otmining.com/
    Cash Minerals, OM: (1 days) Uranium (CHX.V, CHXMF.PK) http://www.cashminerals.com
    Concentric Energy, PP: (???? days) Uranium: (no symbol; not publically trading) http://www.concentricenergy.com/ (Valued at the level of the recent financing.)
    PHYSICAL GOLD COINS (I've been buying "some" gold).
    PHYSICAL PALLADIUM BARS Physical 10 oz. and 1 oz. bars.
    Noront Resources, OM: (1 days) Gold (NOT.V, NOSOF.PK) http://norontresources.com/
    The value of each item in the group above, individually, is worth more than 1% of the portfolio.
    The value of each item in the group below, individually, is worth less than 1% of the portfolio.


    Klondike Silver, PP (FT): (3 days) Silver (KS.V, KLSVF.PK) http://www.klondikesilver.com/
    Avino Silver & Gold Mines OM: (2 days) Silver (ASM.V, ASGMF.OB) http://www.avino.com/
    Silver Dragon Resources OM: (<1days) Silver (SDRG.OB) http://www.silverdragonresources.com/
    Crowflight Minerals, OM: (1 days) Nickel (CML.V, CMLGF.PK) http://www.crowflight.com
    Mountain Boy Minerals, OM: (6 days) Silver (MTB.V, MBYMF.PK) http://www.mountainboyminerals.ca/
    Asian Mineral Resources, OM: (1 days) Nickel (ASN.V, AIERF) http://asianminres.com/
    The value of each item in the group above, individually, is worth more than 1/2 of 1% of the portfolio.
    The value of each item in the group below, individually, is worth less than 0.5% of the portfolio.


    SNS Silver Corp, OM: (1 days) Silver: (SNS.V, SNSFF.PK) http://www.snssilver.com/
    Bluerock Resources, OM: (2 days ) Uranium: (BRD.V, ???PK) http://www.bluerockresources.com
    Candente Resource Corp, OM: (1 days) Copper (DNT.TO, CDOUF.PK) http://www.candente.com
    Senator Minerals, OM: (4 days) Gold: (SNR.V, SMLCF.PK) http://www.senatorinc.com/
    Mawson Resources Ltd., OM: (1 days) Uranium: (MAW.V, ???PK) http://www.mawsonresources.com/
    Silvercrest, PP (FT) & OM: (1 days) Silver: (SVL.V, STVZF.PK) http://www.silvercrestmines.com/
    Arian Silver Corporation, OM: (1 days) Silver: (AGQ.V, ASLRF.PK) http://www.ariansilver.com
    Nevada Copper Corp, OM (1 days) Copper: (NCU.V, ???.PK) http://www.nevadacopper.com/
    Skye Resources, OM: (1 days) Nickel (SKR.TO, SKRZF.PK http://skyeresources.com/
    Clifton Mining, OM: (1 days) Silver & Colloidal Silver: (CFTN.PK) http://www.cliftonmining.com/
    Inca Pacific Resources, OM: (1 days) Copper (IPR.V, IPRFF.PK) http://www.incapacific.com/
    VMS Ventures, Inc.,OM: (1 days) Copper/zinc (VMS.V) http://www.vmsventures.com/
    Abcourt, PP (FT) (1 days) Silver & Zinc: ABI.V ABMBF.PK http://www.abcourt.com/
    Savant Explorations (Spinoff from Pacifica/Selwyn) Zinc: (SVT.V) http://www.savantexplorations.com
    Sterling Mining Company, OM: (1 days) Silver (SRLM.OB) http://www.sterlingmining.com/
    U.S. Silver Corporation, OM: (1 days) Silver (USA.V, ) http://www.us-silver.com/


    SOLD OUT from last month: (no positions sold out completely)



    --------------------------------------
    WARRANTS:


    The list does not include the value of warrants which come with many of the private placements. For those companies I've bought in private placements, (which usually include warrants), I have included a "PP" (for Private Placement) at the start of the line. For PP's with hold times that have come off, are now listed as FT for "free trading" For more information about private placements in silver companies, click here.


    I have warrants, from PP deals, as follows:


    expiring: Nov 25th, 2007
    Klondike Silver
    571,793 at $.20 Cdn = $114,358 Cdn.
    24 months from Nov 25, 2005 = Nov 25th, 2007


    2008 2008 2008


    Exploration Syndacate, warrants at .35: 200,000


    expiring: Apr. 2008 IRA
    Tumi warrants
    200k @ .80 Cdn. Apr. 2008


    2011 2011 2011


    expiring: January, 2011
    Metalline
    400,000 warrants at $1.25/share.


    --------------------------------------


    Here are most of my trading decisions in this last month (just off the top of my head):


    I substantially increased my position in Ascendant Copper. http://miningpedia.com/?s=acx.to --see the company profile at Miningpedia. I like it because it has 19 billion pounds of copper in historical resources. It's anyone's guess as to the Capex--I'm guessing $500 million? The market cap is a mere $32 million. The grade is very high, too, at about .8% copper, much higher than my .5% preferred cutoff. The stock is cheap, the company alleges, because a single shareholder who has 7 million shares wanted to dump. I now own 834,000 shares. So, there's no reason to aggressively bid up this stock. Just be patient, get on the bid at $.32-$.34 Cdn, and wait. The seller should sell to you. There is also substantial NGO (Non-governmental organization) risk here, because it's in Equador. But I noticed that other stocks in Equador didn't get slammed, so I bought in.


    I finally bought back some Avino stock, and some Silver Dragon. Both silver companies that were on price dips this month. Silver Dragon is already up 34% from where I got it.


    I sold some Candente to buy more Ascendant--a copper stock I like better.


    I sold some Metalline Mining, too.


    --------------------------------------


    I have 17 postions each worth over $200,000 each.


    I have 19 positions worth over $100,000 each.


    --------------------------------------


    General Market Commentary:


    I've continued to study the copper market, for any sign that I might be wrong; that now is not a good time to invest in copper stocks that must catch up to the roaring copper price. So far, I've found no reason to think I've misjudged this market. See the two threads at the subscriber's forum in the "Economic Discussion Forum":


    Articles on Copper Shortage



    My rebuttal to Frank Veneroso


    Next: There was a lot of talk this last month or two over the failed hedge funds run by Bear Sterns. Those $2 billion in losses are small potatoes. The concern is that this is the tip of the iceberg of a larger mess in the mortgage lending market. I think this mess will be much, much bigger than the Savings and Loan bailout of the early 1980's that cost some $250 billion, back when a billion was a lot of money. This next debacle/default/bankruptcy mess could be as big as a few trillion. Maybe it will take out some large bullion banks, or maybe they will be bailed out, which will cause continued inflation.


    The interesting thing here is that the home buyers were betting on continued inflation. Even the lenders were betting on continued inflation; because a rising home price means that the loans can be easily covered. But the funny thing is that even a 13% money creation rate was not enough to stave off this bankruptcy. And the funny thing is that these lenders and borrowers who both bet on higher prices simply invested in the wrong things--assets that were already overpriced. So ironic. If they were both so convinced of inflation, then why didn't they just buy silver? Answer: They will.


    Next item: I'm very encouraged by Ron Paul, running for President, and the growing support he is getting. The crowds were just crazy for Ron Paul, and so am I. See here for more:


    TERBO Congress


    Ron Paul 2008 & Politics


    I think the most dangerous thing to watch out for, for our investments right now, is trade protectionism and trade barriors.


    The most dangerous political development is the growing power of the Executive Branch, saying they can freeze assets of anyone they want, at any time they want, for any reason they want, and that they don't have to answer to anyone about it, and need not offer any explanation in any court of law.


    Executive Order signed on July 17 by President Bush that authorizes him to block the personal property of anyone in the United States. Read the document here: http://www.whitehouse.gov/news…/2007/07/20070717-3.html. If this link does not work, here is a backup source: http://www.freedom-force.org/newsarchive/EO_2007-07-17.mht.


    This is a total violation of the rights of the people, and is more of a reason to own gold and silver than ever before. Gold and silver, the physical metals, are not assets that can be "frozen". Bank accounts, and trading accounts, are.


    This executive order is almost a reason to stop writing completely--or even flee the country. At any time, I could be accused of "aiding" terrorists, merely by pointing out that owning gold and silver is a way to protect your assets from government confiscation. And then, my own trading accounts could be frozen. I suppose this makes it official. As an American during wartime, I'm now putting everything I own at risk to tell the truth about the inherant nature of gold and silver. I can only pray that the people in power don't view me as a potential terrorist.



    --------------------------------------


    Paying subscribers have consistently asked me for advance notice of my publishing. I cannot do that in good conscience, as that is too much like insider trading.



    How should you use this information, this "portfolio look"?



    I know there are many stocks here, and it may seem overwhelming. In 2002, I only had 5 stock picks for the entire year! In 2003, I began to get a bit smarter, and diversify a bit. Diversification from success has continued ever since. See, I try to put the most money (but never more than 10%) into the stocks that I think will go up the most. Very simple, in theory. However, if we are right, and I'm frequently right, we will end up with a "diversification problem". In other words, if my top 10% investment/pick outperforms the rest of the portfolio by 100% better, then it will grow to 20%, and I'll want to sell, to diversify.


    For example, about one and a half years ago, I bought about $85,000 worth of Silver Grail in a private placement at $.10 Cdn/share, and then exercised my warrants at $.125 for another $92,000 or so. The stock has been as high as $1. I now have 1.7 million shares, worth about $750,000 at $.50, which is about 58 days worth of average daily trading volume. I can't sell if I wanted to, not right away, because the market is not big enough. But on the other hand, the stock is still cheap at about $7 million market cap, (and the stock is on a dip) and they have many silver properties. There is no way that I'd put $750,000 into the stock at today's price of $.50. On the other hand, if I didn't own it, maybe I'd buy about $100,000 at today's price, to at least "get some", see? So, what I own, and what "I would do now" might be different things. I'm not saying "don't buy it". I'm saying you have to figure out what is right for you. Silver Grail may be a very good value at this level, too. Being able to look at my portfolio can help you to see where my bias may be, since I may want to promote Silver Grail to my large free list, to increase the liquidity, and to help the company if they need to raise money.


    I cannot tell you what you should do. I cannot tell you what I would do. I cannot tell you what I'm going to do. I can only tell you "what I have done", hence the nature of this information.


    Nevertheless, what might be a good thing for you to do? Here are a few suggestions for different strategies.


    1. You can allocate the same amount to each stock, say, $1000 each? (Less than $1000 on a single stock may be unwise if you are paying 1% commission per trade, or $10 per trade.)
    2. OR, You can use the list as a "look here" guide, and simply research the companies as if they were tips. Research 5 stocks. Pick the best one. Invest accordingly. Repeat. Soon you will know the companies as if they were your favorite sports teams, but this is a lot more profitable, more productive, and more fun.
    3. OR, You can try to begin researching the stocks I've bought most recently, assuming that the newer, the better.


    Ultimately, you must always rely on your own judgement, and your own research.




    A word about the Silver ETF. I do NOT recommend that you buy it. Buy silver. The ETF is for large institutions, for people who can buy more silver than they can carry or put into a safe. Silver in your own safe is probably more safe than the ETF. (Unless you live in a ghetto or someplace where robberies are frequent.)


    If you want another company to hold your silver for you, a practice that I do NOT recommend, I would recommend the following companies:
    Anglo Far East Bullion Company
    James Turk's goldmoney.com



    My free email reports are sent, via email, to 54,500emails, about 3000 more than last month, and perhaps is seen by countless others as it is published on various web sites. (NOTE, MY LAST FREE EMAIL WAS JUNE 20TH .)


    About 50people per day sign up to my free email list.


    When I advertise at google, that increases to about 200/day.


    My list of people who are interested in private placements is about 800.
    see http://www.silverstockreport.com/privateplacements.htm


    There are about 850 monthly paying subscribers- -you who read this report.





    Monthly history
    Jan
    2007 Feb
    2007 Mar
    2007 Apr
    2007 May
    2007 Jun
    2007 Jul
    2007 Aug
    2007 Sep
    2007 Oct
    2007 Nov
    2007 Dec
    2007


    Month Unique visitors Number of visits Pages Hits Bandwidth
    Jan 2007 73254 95574 153686 860786 8.74 GB
    Feb 2007 54256 77537 120054 909204 6.18 GB
    Mar 2007 61973 98311 187656 1283834 9.22 GB
    Apr 2007 67612 95645 191159 1106346 7.30 GB
    May 2007 118907 183668 339928 2121059 12.41 GB
    Jun 2007 73619 116856 242712 1406591 8.23 GB
    Jul 2007 45801 65991 153522 630253 4.67 GB
    Aug 2007 0 0 0 0 0
    Sep 2007 0 0 0 0 0
    Oct 2007 0 0 0 0 0
    Nov 2007 0 0 0 0 0
    Dec 2007 0 0 0 0 0
    Total 495422 733582 1388717 8318073 56.75 GB




    Traffic is down from last month. This can be explained because I did not send out any emails last month.


    I'm spending about $700-1000/day at Google keyword advertising.


    We have many other recurring ads at kitco, gold-eagle, goldseek, silverseek, resourceinvestor.com and other precious metal websites.


    My ad budget is now just over $35,000/month, and I'm probably spending most of it right now. (850 subscribers at $40/month)


    For previous month's reports, see the following:
    http://www.silverstockreport.c…bers/portfolioarchive.htm

    Fed Cuts Discount Rate to 5.75 Percent to Ease Credit Crunch 8o 8o 8o


    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/…d=aMr45.9VOKes&refer=home



    U.S. Stock-Index Futures Rally After Fed Cuts Discount Rate


    Aug. 17 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures rallied after the Federal Reserve cut its discount lending rate to 5.75 percent from 6.25 percent to prevent credit market losses from slowing the economy.


    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/…d=afpy1dOEj.Kc&refer=home

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