Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

Summertime Blues 320 Guys 8).

..und der US Dollar tanzt im beat. :D... PPT King Dollar !

Hoffentlich geht den Gorilla die Luft beim Blues 83 aus.

Die Medien sagen den Amis gehts wieder gut, es war noch nie besser unter den Umstaenden.

In der Strasse von Hormuz lassen die Iraner schon mal vorsichtshalber ihre vielen Speedboats ins Wasser.
Die mit surface missiles einigen Schaden ausrichten koennen.
Da geht 20% vom Erdoel durch, wie kann sich das auf den Oilpreis auswirken

Luftangriff dafuer sind die Amis ja bekannt, aber so einfach wird das nicht wie sich manche vorstellen.
Die haben bestimmt von Irak und Afghanistan gelernt welche Taktik die Amis wieder machen wollen.

Tick - Tack - Boom ... the beat goes on and on .......nur unsere Freunde duerfen Atomreaktoren betreiben wie Pakistan zum Beispiel.

Funky, very funky reason to attack Iran and later Syria, because all the freedom fighters come from there to give us shit in Irak and Afghanistan ?

Le Metropole Members,

Served at The Man Ray Table:

GOLD, SILVER, BONDS, CASH DOLLAR INDEX, CURRENCIES, &
COMMENTS FROM MICHEL DE CHABERT-OSTLAND

"it is my understanding that the recent sell off was
in part due to liquidation of long term US securities
by some central banks. I believe some of that money
went into short term T-Bills. This makes eminent sense
as the bond market finished a 22 year run up in 2003
and has entered since then into a secular bear market.
The fundamentals for the bond market have been and will
continue to be extremely negative and I would expect
this bear market to last for many years.......

.....SILVER: CASH SILVER: 13.10; JULY SILVER: 13.13; PRICES BELOW BASIS CASH SILVER

1. The silver fundamentals remain superb and I won't go beyond that as others cover this in great detail.

2. It is my analysis that we have been correcting the move from 11.99 of 1/8/07 to 14.77 of 2/26 for the past few months. This correction has taken a familiar pattern with the last leg down of this correction having started at 13.87 on 6/6. Projected targets and support were between 12.62 to 12.925 to end the correction.

3. So far, we have reached a recent low of 12.89 on 6/8 and therefore the correction from 14.77 could very well have ended then. If not, you know the parameters as to where I think it will end.

4. Assuming that the correction is over from 14.77, there is no guarantee that this will be the final correction in the bigger picture as it could still be only a part of the overall correction, however, my preferred scenario is that it is the end of the correction from 14.77. I hope that I am not confusing you.

Anyone not already long silver, should consider an initial entry right here and now.

5. I like the fact that the weekly momentums are close to levels where previous rallies have begun and the 200DMA is at 12.96 today.

GOLD: CASH GOLD: 648.40; AUGUST GOLD: 651.40

1. I won't discuss the fundamentals that remain superb and have been so well covered by Bill Murphy.

2. My technical analysis always has two parts: a top down analysis that pinpoint potential targets for end of corrections ( this is extremely important ) and a bottom up analysis that covers the usual Fib retracements with their new adjustments, previous wave pattern supports, 50 and 200DMA, rgold as defined by Adam Hamilton, momentum indicators, etc.. With the increasing complexity of the markets due to their global participation, it is more than ever essential to have this knowledge in order to succeed. This is most likely the province of the professional futures trader/investor as the leverage employed in his investments require this information in order to succeed on a long term basis.

3. Let me give you an example of the complexity of the markets. It has been widely publicized that the sentiment indicators for the precious metals in the past two weeks are abysmal and from a contrarian viewpoint would signal a buy signal but this would have been premature if you acted solely on this indicator; furthermore, I suspect that the fielding of these indicators is US centric and doesn't cover the rest of the investing world. Does anyone cover the sentiment for India which, after all, is the most important area of demand for gold in the world? Are they as bearish on gold as the sentiment numbers being reported in the US? How about China and its increasing demand for gold - are they bearish too?

Now, here comes Jim Rogers on Bloomberg yesterday saying that he is bearish gold because " everyone is long "; well, is he thinking of the Asian investors where he resides or is he thinking more globally and, if so, how does he research the facts to arrive at this conclusion? Frankly, in this global investment environment, one must be careful to the importance attached to any one indicator - yes, I incorporate into my decision making the level of sentiment but it is hardly the deciding factor as I hope I have proved above.

4. Here is my analysis basis cash gold :

- from the 694.60 high of 4/23, we fell to a recent low of 643.80 on 6/8. So far today, we have fallen back to 645.35.

- I have had targets and great support between 631 to 644 for some time and I believe this will hold the correction from the 694.60 highs.

- As we have already reached 643.80, it is quite possible that the correction is finished; if not, you have my targets on any further downside.

- Since I believe the dollar is finishing its bear market correction within the parameters mentioned above, this confirms my independent analysis for gold.

CASH DOLLAR INDEX: 82.895

1. Roughly three weeks ago, Sec. Paulson was being interviewed and asked about the prevalent weakness of the dollar. The question was: " Was he worried about further weakness about the dollar and the potential for an uncontrolled fall ". He answered very calmly and almost with a shrug of the shoulders that this was far from being one of his top concerns and that there were more important issues that he had to deal with ( I am paraphrasing ). I immediately stood up and wondered what he knew that was not factored in the markets as we were at that time very close to taking out the multi year intraday low of 80.39 of Dec. 31, 2004. I decided then and there to monitor very closely my long Australian, Canadian, and Euro positions and have acted accordingly since then. I sold my Cando longs a bit early but with a very nice profit and remain modestly long the Australian dollar ( my preferred currency for almost a year ) and Euro. Well, we all know what has happened in the last week as the cash dollar index has spiked up to a three month high in sympathy with the long rates spiking up out of a resistance zone that had capped the market yields for a very long time. It is my analysis that the short term yields are much more important to the dollar than the long term yields and therefore, this spike up in the dollar is a trap.

What foreigner in his right mind would buy a US ten or thirty year bond that is depreciating in value far more than the meager rise in interest that he would receive?

2. Having made that observation, I am always cognizant that the markets can do almost anything, even that which seems totally illogical. It is possibly because some traders had overextended their short dollar position to a dangerous level and must now cover at any price in order to stay alive; perhaps this is done in conjunction with the black box traders whose algorithms are reversing their short dollar positions to the long side.

3. The best that I can say at this time is that the cash dollar index has potential targets and significant resistance between 83.05 to 83.70 which is slightly above the levels that we are trading at now. IMO, anyone not already long the currencies mentioned above should look to initiate a long position, especially in the Australian dollar.

4. In the bigger picture, although there is never a 100% certainty in the markets, it is my analysis that the dollar has much further to go on the downside.

Choose your long currencies wisely as they are not all created equal.

Bush ties Cold War to terrorism

2007-6-12 21:43

Washington

US President George W Bush paid tribute to the estimated tens of millions killed under communism at a new memorial to their suffering and linked the Cold War to the struggle against ""terrorism"".

Twenty years after then-US president Ronald Reagan stood at the infamous barrier dividing Berlin and urged the Soviet Union to "tear down this wall", Bush said Islamic extremists, like Communists, were "doomed to fail".

His remarks came at the dedication ceremony of a new memorial to the "more than 100 million people" who have died under communism since Russia's Bolshevik Revolution of 1917.

"And like the Communists, the followers of violent Islamic radicalism are doomed to fail," said Bush, who has often compared Islamist extremists to Germany's Nazis or Soviet Communists.

"By remaining steadfast in freedom's cause, we will ensure that a future American President does not have to stand in a place like this and dedicate a memorial to the millions killed by the radicals and extremists of the 21st century," he said.

The memorial evokes the papier-mâché statue raised by pro-democracy demonstrators on Beijing's Tiananmen Square before they were brutally silenced by Chinese troops in 1989.

Ps.. Er vergisst aber das er schon ueber 400.000 Iraker und Afghanen schon zum schweigen gebracht hat.

Accusing the West of having a "moral blind spot" to communism, backers of the Washington memorial said: "We cannot allow the atrocities of Lenin, Stalin, Mao and Castro to fade into the background of history."

The non-profit Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation was created by an act of Congress in 1993 with the aim of emulating memorials to victims of Nazi totalitarian rule.

AFP

Prataeuro, but I can't believe that.
Is it true or just a fake computer number ?
Go and shop, its a rediculous spot price.

Unglaublich, Mahendra hatte Recht das der USD sich gross aufbeugt bevor er dann spaeter gross zusammen faellt.
Allgemeiner Verlust across the board von 30% und bear market for Gold for 38 month I can't believe.

Harte Zeiten fuer die Goldbugs.
But there is sunshine after the rain.

Hang in guys !

Cheers

XEX

Vielleicht hat sich Mahendra verhaut und es kommt ein Bullenmarkt fuer 38 monate bei Gold bis ende 2010 ?.
Ich kann mir nicht vorstellen das der USD nun fuer 38 monate steigt oder nur stabil bleibt.
Jetzt kann man nur mehr hoffen das die physischen Kaufauftraege von Asien und Inden ausgefuehrt werden und diese Computer Nummer von POG/POS wieder korregiert wird.
Ich wette wenn jemand ein paar tonnen Gold bestellt kriegt er sie nicht zu dem Preis den sie uns zeigen.
Die Geschichte mit dem Koenig des Westen und dem Koenig im Osten macht mehr und mehr Sinn.
Der verkauft spaeter dann wieder viel teuerer sein Gold an den Westen.

We'll see

XEX

Und weil ich auch das Gold vom Westen will kaufte ich mir vorhin gleich ein paar Maple Leaf fuer 680 USD, die habe ich noch nicht als Gold Muenze.
Damit der Paul Kruger nicht alleine im Safe liegt bekommt er die Elizabeth II dazu.
Mit den letzen zwei physischen Nachkauf komme ich nun auf Schnitt POG bei 649 USD.
Wenn keiner kauft, dann muss ich kaufen bei so einen ""Spottpreis"".

Marcher

Ich mache mir erst in die Hose wenn die POG 600 da sind von den die meisten Pessimisten hier traeumen.

Dann borge ich USD bis zum Kopf hoch und kaufe wieder Gold als Goldbug.

Das geizige warten kotzt mich an, sei mir nicht boese.

Das Tauziehen kann nicht mehr lange dauern mit dem USD.

IMO die Sprungfeder Gold ist so gut wie am unteren Ende gedrueckt und der Markt ist nun ziemlich ausgewaschen.

Die softies sind raus, jetzt gehts nur mehr um den harten Kern von Goldbugs.

Anyway, good luck to everybody.

XEX

Danke fuer die Aufmunterung, Saccard

Ich glaube der Trick an der Börse ist, daß man mit dem bizarrsten rechnen muß, so unwahrscheinlich es auch ist. Solange man auch nur einen cent margin hat ist man im Zweifelsfall pleite, auch wenn man danach recht behält.....tough luck !

Am besten ich verkauf jetzt wieder alles wie der Jeff Kern.
Von den Dividenden der PM minen im ""moment"" kann ich eh nicht leben.

Ich halte mich mit Prognosen fern da es eher eine Vermutung von mir ist und ich kein risiko trage was daraus jeder gewinnt oder verliert.

Die Sache stinkt doch zum Himmel was im moment los ist.
Ich bin Contrarian und lass mich nicht anschmieren vom PPT.

Der Goldpreis hat natürlich wieder "gelitten", d.h. die Spekulanten haben verkauft und das Goldkartell hat draufgedrückt.

Siegel sagt der Goldmarkt ist labil.

Jetzt werben sogar schon in der reichen Schweiz Tafeln für den Goldankauf", die Knappheit muss enorm sein !

Bei meinen Handel heute hat man mich auch gefragt ""physisch ? ""

Yeah, haut es nur raus Eurer Gold, einer freut sich immer, cough it up and on the table now !!

Where is a seller there is a buyer.

Come back home to USA and buy the USD,.... what a joke !

.........

NEW YORK -- A bad day for stocks -- and for gold, which closed Tuesday in New York at $647.10, down over $7 on the day and sharply down from its April lunge at the $700 level.

First a proprietary word: The Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index, which represents the average gold market exposure among a subset of short-term gold-timing newsletters, stood at a reading of 21.4% on Tuesday night. That's not dramatically low - gold exposure can go well into negative territory. But it's a change from the over-enthusiasm (50%) that Mark Hulbert thought gold-timers were displaying earlier this month, when gold reached $671.

Bottom line: Gold is no longer under serious contrary opinion pressure.

For a really radical view on gold, I like to turn to Bill Murphy's subscription website http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/.

Murphy believes gold has long been manipulated downward by what he calls ""the Gold Cartel," a private-public sector alliance with a joint interest in engineering a stock market bubble and suppressing evidence of inflation. He wrote Tuesday night: "The Gold Cartel is nothing less than white-collar criminals ... an organized, highly sophisticated bunch of politicians, bureaucrats, and bullion bankers who are manipulating the price of gold to suit their own agendas.

"Yesterday, I queried what the lousy gold share action might mean. Now you know. There are some in our camp who believe these shares are manipulated along with bullion itself, while others are not so sure. The last two days left NO DOUBT in my mind it is the former. On Friday gold was slaughtered and the shares did not budge. Then gold rallies sharply on Monday. The shares rally at first, but then fail miserably to respond to the bullion strength. Today gold is mauled. The bullion banking gangsters are playing the shares like a fiddle and taking your investment money from you in the process.

"Gold was taken down $2 immediately after the Comex close yesterday and stayed that way through the London Fix, which came in at $652.80. Then, with the yield on the 10-year T note rising to 5.22%, the cabal's hit men went after gold to calm down the increasing inflation fears, as they did on Friday. They did so despite the dollar hardly moving ... pound higher, yen unchanged, and euro off only about .15."

"The floor reported there was one huge, mysterious seller emanating from the electronic market again. Their 200-lot orders were hitting every bid. When they let up, gold rallied $3. Then they started all over again.

"When the U.S. stock market, Dow down 90, began to react badly to the rising rates, gold was mauled further. The 'gangsters' were not about to let the gold price hang in there with their beloved market under such pressure, better to kill the messenger of higher inflation, that being gold."

Where should gold be? Tuesday night Murphy posted a fierce argument by Eric Hommelberg of The Gold Discovery Letter that, for a variety of fundamental and technical reasons, the yellow metal should reach $2,000.

Murphy might sound wild but, at the risk of revealing my age, the wild men got the best of the argument when gold broke free of government controls and blew off into last great bull market in 1980.

Lemetropolecafe does provide one valuable service that no one else seems to have picked up on: data on whether India, the world's largest gold consumer, is importing gold at current price levels. As of Tuesday night, it was.

That means the Gold Cartel, if it exists, will have to cough up serious physical gold to hold the price down.