Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

Die neuen Banknoten sind noch besser...
Die haben alles, ...

...Oilsand - Gold - Silber - Uran - Holz - und irgendwann wichtig sogar Wasser....und nett schaun sie auch aus.

Hey Jungs ich moechte nichts verschreien aber es schaut bis jetzt gut aus mit dem PoG.

Es kann nicht mehr lange dauern bis denen die Munition ausgeht und die Leute wieder zur Besinnung kommen. IMO

Die Kaeufer kommen immer nach den Shorties. ;)..wenn nicht dann halt sideways.

Noch eine Woche ""Bullshit Week"" kann man auch abwarten.

""Danach vielleicht, aber nur vielleicht""

Ich banke halt es passiert denn auf Dauer kann man keinen Bullshiten.

Excuse my Jargon.

Der Expire Day hat sicherlich was mit zu tun mit dem PoG und das Zentralbank Abkommen das bis zum 26. September geht.
Die Vollmondwoche auch !

Danach kann es eine Ueberraschung werden mit den neuen Abkommen wieviel Gold verkauft werden darf.
Der Vertrag geht fuer 2 Jahre btw.
Dann noch ein paar bad news from the middle East steigern den Preis auch, und die Aengste der Inflation geht weiter wie vor--- kurzen.

Es waren Gold Zentralbankverkaeufe die mitspielten in diesen Tsunami.
Die gingen in den Osten,China hat nur 1.5% der Reserven in Gold die braeuchte eigentlich mehr. :D... wenn sie 5% aufstocken sollten dann ist der Tresor so gut wie leer bei der EZB die so saubloed ist zu verkaufen und ihre Waehrung mit Wasser verduennen.

Im neuen Vertrag weniger Verkaeufe als vorher, dann der Vergleich Supply/Demand, und schwupft di wupp ist der PoG wieder oben.

Wir hatten das schon mal !

Why not again ???

GO GOLD GO...... OVER 580 again !!! :. Never go back !!

Ich komme mir vor wie ein Fussball Fan im Stadium.

Ein Eiertanz ist eigentlich.....

TRUTH OR ILLUSION $$$

Thanx Vanescent, desto besser man die Herren kennt um so besser kann man handeln und sich dementsprechend verhalten.

The Plunge Protection Team was first uncovered in comments by Clinton advisor, George Stephanopoulos on Good Morning America on Sept 17, 2001.... after 9/11

The country now faces the growing probability of an economic tsunami triggered by the rickety hedge funds, the falling dollar, and the rapidly deflating real estate bubble. The solid foundation of government oversight and regulation has been eroded by the persistent attacks of the corporatists and banking giants. The entire system is now on shaky ground. When the scaffolding starts to fall, the futile maneuverings of the Plunge Protection Team won’t make a bit of difference.....

Every so often, we rain terror from the skies. We bomb the trading pits and exchange posts with massive sell orders. Without letup; all the way down. At the same time we pull all bids, blocking the exits. The refugees get trapped like rats, then panic and dump their holdings. We snarf up their discards and reload, all the while bombing and shorting the stragglers. By the time we finish, the only survivors are a few miserable deadenders and nutcases.

All they can do is piss and moan about “market manipulation,” and hatch their kooky conspiracy theories.

They call themselves “gold bugs.”

Wir haben nicht viel zu sagen, Bill Murphy ist auch vor Gericht gezogen.
Im schlimmsten Fall zahlt man dann eine Abfindung und Strafe und macht weiter. Citi Group alleine hat 5 B USD bereits bezahlt.
Ich habe das aber schon erwaehnt. im anderen thread.

Die machen lustig weiter, keine Ahnung was die im Endeffekt richtig zum stoppen bringt .

Der Treibsand steigt...

Gnight

XEX

Ich hoere mir mal wieder David Bond und Bob Hopper an.

Die sagten das GM , Ford, Intel z.B. alle zusammen 150 tausend Abeiter los werden wollen und die auszahlen wollen falls sie bereit sind, ansonsten muss gefeuert werden. Da wartet kein Job mehr danach fuer die meisten, Eine Stadt wie Seattle wird dann leerer, die Autohalden bleiben voll..

Ja das ist die andre Seite, egal man borgt ihnen Geld und sie sollen Kaufen bis zum Umfallen und die Wirtschaft antreiben,bis die Zinsfalle sie fertig macht.

Die meisten Airlines in US sind fast pleite und eine hat sogar bei Gericht gewonnen und braucht die Rentenversichung an ihre Arbeiter nicht auszahlen. Die Minen und Oilfelder haben aber das grosse Problem das sie keine Arbeiter kriegen bei den Knochenjob. Als ich dort war sah ich nur Miner und Personal ueber 45 Jahre. Die alten Fuechse werden immer weniger und keiner ist interessiert in die Grube zu gehen fuer 50.000 USD/Year soweit sie sagten. Ein Problem !!!...habt ihr Lust ?

Spasshalber sagten sie das der Job bei Greenpeace nicht so anstrengend ist.
Das gut organisierte Attentat an einen Zentralbanker in Russland besorgt die anderen Zentral Banker auch... der Job wir nun auch gefaehrlicher.

Sie haben verglichen, und sagten das beim letzten Silver Summit vor einem Jahr der Silberpreis bei 8 USD war, das sind trotzdem heute ein Zuwachs von 20%. Ein Haus in Kalifornien hat diese Performance nicht.

Dann Rhodium das sich gut haelt, eine Unze kostes 4600 USD !!

Der beste Vergleich war Blei, wenn man den gehaemmerten Bleipreis heute anschaut im Vergleich zum USD dann ist der USD um 30 faches schwaecher geworden im Vergleich seit der Fed gegruendet wurde in 1971.

Selbst wenn die US in eine grosse Rezession kommt, geht der Wirtschaftwachstum in China von 10% pro jahr dann eben auf ca. 6% was immer noch spitze ist.

Der Anschlag auf Rohstoffe/EM geht auch vorbei, its buy time guys.
Die koennen nur teurer werden auf lange Zeit gesehen und der Dollar schwaecher wenn man nur Blei anschaut..

Hier kann man sich schon mal ausrechnen was man braucht in USA.

http://www1.jsc.nasa.gov/bu2/inflateCPI.html
http://www.westegg.com/inflation/

Gnight

Eldo

Marc Faber der seit Jahren in Hongkong lebt, bzw. arbeitet sagte das ein starker Wirtschaftswachstum in USA/EU den Wachstum in China gerade mal max. um die haelfte drosselt von 10% z.Zt.

Hier ist auch eine Meinung von John Maudlin, der nicht in Asien lebt:

China Steps on the Brakes

China is stepping on the economic brakes, but it will be interesting to see if they actually work. There are 2,600 major construction sites in Beijing and over 200,000 capital construction projects nationwide. Manufacturing capacity has been doubling every 3 to 4 years, accompanied by constant price destruction in many sectors.

The Chinese economy is growing in the 10-12% range and perhaps more, as much activity probably goes unreported. There is nothing wrong with strong growth, but there is legitimate concern about growth that is not actually market-based. The Chinese government is concerned about too much capacity in too many industries, as well as real estate speculation.

Every local government has had access to cheap money. So, they build more factories with little view to markets and profits. As Simon Hunt notes from a recent rip to China:

"In our travels around Shandong Province we came across a prime example. A local government company decided in 2000 to construct a power station and a copper tube plant. We cannot comment on the feasibility of the power plant, but it was quite clear from our visit that the ACR tube plant with a capacity of 60kt/a will never make a decent return on capital, let alone will lenders ever get to see their money back.

"Not content with one white elephant, the company is building a sheet/strip plant with a capacity of 100kt/a and a capex of US$250 million, using all imported equipment, just to add to the circa 1.5MT/a of new capacity being built in China. Our discussions also showed that they had not undertaken a rigorous market study prior to starting to construct. Power stations, tube and sheet/strip mills have all been fashionable projects, and China is a land of fashion followers."

How many such projects are there? The central government has laid down rules designed to make it more difficult to build projects which are not economically rational. But the local bureaucrats have ignored the rules. Beijing is starting to crack down. Some 100,000 projects, initiated since the beginning of the year, are under investigation. Forty percent of these violate at least one rule, and 14% are actually illegal.

Conveniently for the central government, a large number of local bureaucrats are due to be replaced (through retirement or elections). Look for their replacements to be more loyal to the central government.

Beijing is not trying to stop real infrastructure growth. The concern is excess capacity, which leads to deflationary pressure. Directing all this from a central government is a mind-boggling task, and one about which I must admit I harbor doubts as to how it will actually work. But so far...?

The government has stated that its objective is to bring down the growth of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from the plus 30% in the first half of the year to 20% by year-end. Both monetary and administrative measures will continue to be taken until this goal is in reach. That is a big drop and is already being seen in construction activity, according to a report just issued by Jonathan Anderson of UBS.

How? Among other things, the government has taken back the ability of local bureaucrats to approve land sales. If you can't buy the land, you can't build the factory. Adherence to the rules is being aggressively pushed, with strong messages coming from the very top leadership. Plus, in the past few weeks we have seen some very difficult new positions. Foreign businesses cannot sell land and repatriate their capital. And limits have been placed on how much (or even if) foreign firms can invest in businesses in certain sectors, some of which seem to clearly violate WTO rules, at least from this side of the Pacific.

That being said, the Chinese government has affirmed they will meet their WTO obligations to open up their banking sector to foreign firms, although the rules they are adopting will make it expensive to do so.

All this gives rise to even more protectionist rhetoric from both the left of the Democratic and the right wing of the Republican parties. They demand that China revalue the Renminbi by 30% or so immediately.
Such verbal political garbage may play well to the home crowd, but it makes no economic sense. Exactly why do these politicians want Americans to pay 30% more for their Chinese imports? Such a move would cause a deep and severe recession in the US, not to mention China. Let's see if we can really destabilize the world. Idiocy.

The Chinese will continue to do what they have done for years, and that is to act in their own best interests, just as every other nation does. And it is in everyone's interest that they slowly move to a free-floating currency, which it evidently seems they are doing. As strong as the Chinese economy is, it is more fragile than it appears. A shock of a quick 30% adjustment in currency valuations would precipitate a deep recession in China. That is something the world does not need.

It will truly be a miracle if the Chinese can avoid a recession over the next few years, as all economies eventually succumb to the normal business cycle. But unless the government makes a large blunder, it will be just like the next recession in the US. It will pass and then the growth will resume. The Chinese government is managing a very difficult transition, from a centralized socialist economy to a market-driven economy. For all the problems, from this seat I think they are doing better than any of us could imagine 10 years ago. Yes, they have a long way to go, but they have come a long way. If they can continue down the path they are on, it will accrue not only to their benefit, but to the world's advantage.

Linar es kann viel schneller gehen als der Mann glaubt, da sind auch andere Faktoren die den Goldpreis hochjagen als nur die T-Bonds.
Auf Dauer werden die Zinsen weiter steigen in USA, der Fed hat keine Wahl mehr als zu drucken und den Leuten Geld zu pumpen bis sie genauso verschuldet sind. Im Endeffekt beissen sie sich in den eigenen Schwanz, bei 6% Zinsen wird es dann kritisch.
Irgendwann geht nichts mehr wenn die Banken ihr Geld wieder wollen das sie geborgt haben.
Alle diese Blasen werden platzen,das ""borrow and spend it"" geht auch vorbei.

You want truth, read this:

Rigging the Market; the secret maneuverings of the Plunge Protection Team

By Mike Whitney

09/14/06 "Information Clearing House" -- -- "Every individual…generally, indeed, neither intends to promote the public interest, nor knows how much he is promoting it. By preferring the support of domestic to that of foreign industry he intends only his own security; and by directing that industry in such a manner as its produce may be of the greatest value, he intends only his own gain, and he is in this, as in many other cases, led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention." Adam Smith, "The Wealth of Nations"

The Plunge Protection Team is a working group of high-ranking officials from the Dept. of the Treasury, Wall Street, and the Federal Reserve. Its purpose is to establish the protocols for preventing another incident similar to the stock market crash of 1987. In the event of a steep decline, the team is prepared to buy large amounts of equities in an effort to stabilize the market.

Some people believe that the government has no right to interfere in the activities of "free markets". Others think it is a prudent way of staving off economic collapse. Still others believe that the intrusion of government, aided by the privately-owned Federal Reserve and the NYSE, naturally favors the larger institutional investors and creates an uneven playing field for small investors…..

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article14979.htm

-END-

You want truth and want to know why gold is acting the way it is? …

Hi Bill,

I know i got so frustrated with herr paulson's, right out in broad daylight antics today that i e-mailed my bro, who lives in Ireland, that paulson's apparently mentally ill or something, maybe from head injuries. Did you see where he (paulson) actually used to play middle-linebacker in High School? i don't know if he played in college? He must have taken too many direct hits on his head or something (he's crazy!)....... he just keeps playing Dick Butkis on anything he can't control, i'd say.

Have a rewarding Saturday!

Sincerely,
Steve K….

Treasury Secretary Paulson Already Making Waves

Posted on Wednesday, August 16 2006 - 12:30 AM -

http://www.buzzflood.org/?itemid=3063&catid=2

Henry 'Hank' Paulson - a man, says one friend, 'who has never been satisfied to lose - ever' and who in his youth as a football linebacker was nicknamed The Hammer….

-END-

The Commentary:

“It is a well known fact that relatively few investors really make big money on the big market moves. Most are shaken out for one reason or another. They become exhausted and exit the picture, or for one reason or another, decide to jump into something else in the short term, and never get back into what they were doing (gold and silver share investing) in the first place. From what I can tell via feedback coming my way, a lot of disengagement from the gold and silver scene is occurring right now.

Having watched this recurring loss of faith and interest over the last five years, I can only shake my head with a big smile on my face.

Hier sind Lou's Charts, er ist auch frustriert weil gerade in einen Monat wie September wo ein Demand sein sollte der PoG so runter kam.

http://www.howestreet.com/gold…rts%20of%20the%20week.pdf

Radio:

http://www.howestreet.com/gold…/mediaplayer?audio_id=426

As expected, more talk of a slowing US economy caused base metals prices to continue their decline this week and, as expected, falling base metals prices dragged the gold price down as well. Very few institutional investors differentiate between gold and other metals; they bought them all as a hedge against a weaker US dollar, so when they finally wrapped their heads around the fact that the US economy can slow down and that a slowing economy will cause a decline in base metals demand, they started selling their metals -- including gold.

On Monday, Cathy Minehan, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, commented on the risks that the slowing housing market could pose to the US economy. She was speaking at a meeting of the National Association for Business Economics and a survey of the Association’s economists revealed that they, too, expected the US economy to post below-trend growth for the rest of this year and into 2007.

The Bank of Japan also kept its interest rates unchanged without giving away any clues as to when, or if, it might raise interest rates again. There is some speculation that weakness in the Japanese economy could deter the BOJ from raising interest rates in the near future and this dampened enthusiasm for base metals further.

Most investors (both individual and institutional) are reactionary, and when they read about negative sentiments such as these they react by giving sell orders to their brokers, which is precisely what happened this week.

US money supply (as measured by my own estimate of M3) increased by 8.4% over the past twelve months. Current gold inflation, which is mine supply as a percentage of all above-ground gold (all the gold that has been mined to date), is around 1.6% per annum. That is why the gold price continues to rise against the US dollar over time – it is as simple as that. In the short term, however, exchange rates and investor sentiment also have to be brought into account and it is mostly they that cause short-term volatility. But in the long-term, the gold price in any currency will rise by an amount equal to the difference between its inflation rate and the inflation rate of the currency you price it with.

My model of the gold price (based on the inflation rates of gold and the US dollar) puts the gold price at around $900 an ounce with the difference between the current gold price and $900 being accounted for by an over-priced US dollar. For gold to rise from $600 an ounce to $900 an ounce requires the dollar to fall, on average, by 50%.

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said earlier this year that the dollar had to fall by 35% to 50% in order to balance the US current account gap. I don't know how they came up with those figures, but they correspond very well to my own expectation of how much the dollar should decline.

If the gold price is going to rise to $900 an ounce then gold at under $600 an ounce is starting to look attractive again.
But there is still downside risk in base metals and until the gold price uncouples from base metals prices I would not get too aggressive on the buy side.

But gold will decouple, because unlike base metals, its value (and long-term price) is not dependent on economic growth.

Paul van Eeden