Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

John Embry empfehlt in dem Interview :

But I would say that anybody who believes in gold – and I believe everybody should believe in gold these days – should have some bullion as the core of their portfolio, in whatever form they choose to hold it.

TGR: As far as a percentage, what would you suggest?

EMBRY: I would say maybe 20% to 25%. And then the rest I would have a mixture of big-cap stocks for some sort of solidity, but for the real home-run potential, a diversified list of good quality juniors.

TGR: Why don’t you give us maybe three or four large-cap names that you think would be a core holding?

EMBRY: The one that I like the best in terms of its exposure is Gold Fields (GFI) , the South African entity. I am not nuts about South Africa, but on the other hand, I think it’s more than discounted in the price, and they have the biggest reserve base of any company in the world. So, I like Gold Fields as a core holding in the big cap. One of the ones I liked was Meridian (MDG) , but as you know it got taken out by Yamana (AUY) . I am not nuts about Yamana; I own it, but I am not as crazy about it; it’s not as clean a play to me as Meridian was.

But if you’re going for the best bang for your buck, I would guess that a Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) or an Agnico-Eagle(AEM) a re interesting. But that’s not my space; I am not particularly adept at that. The other one I like is Goldcorp Inc. (GG). Goldcorp . . .would be a core holding in the big companies.

So, again it's a quality thing, I would go Gold Fields, Goldcorp, and one of Kinross or Agnico or Yamana.
Even though I’m not crazy about the assets, Yumana has sort of a cachet with the investing public and in a higher gold price environment, it will do well.

EMBRY: I can’t think of a better time to buy juniors; it is one of the very best times. I think the best time was at the bottom in 2000 and 2001. But given where the gold price has come and the way some of these juniors are trading, I think we’re being presented with another unbelievable opportunity. I’d be really shocked if my fund didn’t at least double over the next 12 months. And I think it’s going to be good in all currencies in the next 12 months. That will be my final word. (11/29/07)

..der link steht im Junior thread wer mehr wissen will.

US Dollar

Neville Bennett

What is the significance of the weak American dollar? Is the weakness temporary? Is a structural shift occurring? I argue that the dollar has been in decline since 2005, but the present credit crunch is hastening the cession of the US dollar as the major reserve currency. The dollars’ future depends upon how massive exporters like China, Japan, and Saudi Arabia, and newly industrializing countries, deploy their reserves.

The decline of the dollar is partial response to market conditions. Investors note the Federal Reserve’s loosening attitude. Nevertheless, the decline is not due to traditional concerns about the current account deficit.
A weak dollar has unleashed an export boom, which will reduce the deficit from 6.5% of GDP this year to 4-5% next year.

The dollar is under pressure because of growing apprehensions of the economy crashing into recession, and the nervousness of foreign investors because of the dollars poor performance as a reserve currency. The subprime issue seems to get worse daily; there are $900 bn of securitised subprimes in the US, and the default rate may go to 20-25%, inflicting huge losses. The Case-Schiller housing index shows a 5% price fall this quarter. Other credit markets have seized up, and strains are obvious in the car, credit card, and asset-backed commercial paper markets. Only bonds are trusted and the 10- year yield has been bid down to 4%.

The Fed has eased twice since September and is almost certain to ease again soon, possibly on December 11. Europe is not as badly affected by the credit crunch but its bank, like the Fed, has released a flood of liquidity to prevent markets freezing up in the short-term. Recent Fed forecasts reveal that the economy is more threatened than it believed in October, and it is now seriously concerned about a recession.

Lawrence Summers of Harvard argues, "The odds now favour a recession that slows growth significantly on a global scale". He believes the derivative market is pricing in a 25% housing market correction. This would curb dramatically consumer spending. Banks will curb new lending because they have been hit by a perfect storm of declining capital due to mark-to-market losses, involuntary balance sheet expansion, and reduced confidence.

The dollar is also weakened by rising energy costs, Summers says, geopolitical uncertainties (especially in the Middle East), and prospects of lower global growth.

The Euro has surpassed the dollar as the most important currency in international bond markets. International Capital Market data indicates that at the end of 2006, bonds issued in Euro currency denomination was equivalent to US$4,836b., while bonds in US currency amounted to US$3,892. Moreover, last year the value of euro-denominated notes exceeded that of dollar notes for the first time.

The growth of the Euro bond market has many causes. There is the growing tendency of governments to increase their debts. However, the most important cause is a switch by business and financial institutions to bonds rather than their traditional reliance on bank debt. Moreover, the Euro financial zone has increasingly sophisticated and deeper markets, which offers a huge range of excellent products. Several countries already have used the Euro as a reserve, including Russia and Iran.

Most Gulf States contest the traditional links to the US dollar. Kuwait revalued its currency six months ago, and the Governor of the United Arab Emirates is pressing for a revaluation. Saudi Arabia alone defends the dollar link: partly because a shift to the Euro as the reserve currency would devalue Saudi’s existing dollar assets. Its support of the USA is primarily geopolitical.

Geopolitical considerations are jeopardising the US-China relationship. The US Treasury has compromised relations by forceful demands for a significant revaluation of the Chinese currency. Congress threatens to place tariffs on Chinese imports unless the Yuan is revalued by 20-30%. This obsession undermines the US-Chinese relationship, and risks Chinese retaliation through moving its reserves out of the US dollar.

The Chinese government has commenced a retaliatory campaign of threatening to liquidate its enormous holding of US bonds ($900 bn) if the US government imposes trade sanctions. The threats have come from officials, and reported in Chinese papers as a "nuclear" option, meaning a sell-off would cause the dollar to crash. It would also raise US interest rates, pushing the economy into recession.

The renminbi has appreciated 9% over the last years but China is still notching up huge surpluses.

The dollar is now at its weakest point since currencies were floated in 1971. Washington seems rather relaxed about the decline, especially as exports are surging. Other markets are horrified. One problem is that the decline is greater against strong currencies like the Euro. but not moving, of course, against the dollar block of pegged currencies like China and Saudi Arabia. The UK and Europe are forced into painful readjustments. while the dollar bloc is faced with strong inflationary pressures and falling US interest rates.

The Euro zone resents the unwanted surge of international capital which is destabilizing. It is forcing an upward revaluation of the euro which has hit exporters (like Airbus) very hard..

Some downward adjustment of the dollar might be desirable, but its decline in the present context of doubts about the real value of US securities, threatens to over-shoot, and turn into a rout. The world needs orderly change, but the present situation verges on disorder.

Another massive change has occurred this year: a dominant pattern has ruptured. It was the system called Breton Woods 2, whereby newly industrializing countries pegged their currency to the dollar at an undervalued rate. They then invested their export surpluses in US securities. Since June this year, capital inflows have almost dried up according to the US Treasury International Capital system (TIC). In 2005, there was a net capital inflow of $70 bn per month. Since June this year, some months have modest inflows but others were strongly negative. The dollar is on a slippery slope.

FACTBOX-Gold,

Silver exchange-traded funds (ETF) holdings

http://www.reuters.com/article…NN2326366320071130?rpc=44

Die ZSIL sind komischerweise nicht auf der Liste.
Btw, ich habe vorhin einen neuen gefunden wo Embry drinsteckt, ein reiner Gold ETF...Ticker (GTU) ca. 112m USD physisches Gold/NA.

http://www.gold-trust.com/

Financials 3/07

http://www.gold-trust.com/Quar…arter%20Report%202007.pdf

US Global Investor:

Year-to-date (YTD) a large performance spread has opened up between U.S.-listed large capitalization gold stocks and the mid-tier intermediate and junior gold companies listed in Canada. The XAU Gold & Silver Index (10) is up 24.91 percent YTD while for local investors in Canada the S&P/TSX Global Gold Index (11) is down 1.92 percent YTD, a performance gap of 2,683 basis points. Even factoring in the increase in value of the Canadian dollar this year the performance gap is still 1,017 basis points. More than 40 percent of the XAU Gold & Silver Index is composed of just two companies which are up 80.44 percent (FCX) and 33.12 percent (ABX) YTD. Historically, such a performance gap can be closed by a decline in large capitalization stocks or a rise in the performance of their intermediate and junior peers.

For the week, spot gold closed at $783.75, down $40.05 or 4.86 percent. Gold equities, as measured by the XAU Gold & Silver Index, fell 2.87 percent for the week. The U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar Index (12) rebounded strongly with a gain of 1.46 percent for the week.

Strength

Several large equity issues were priced successfully this week. In the first case, one of western Africa’s larger pure gold producers closed a $212 million offering with a strong vote of confidence from their shareholders that they did not want any of their future gold production sold forward through a hedging transaction.
The second offering was an initial public offering of $1.3 billion which marked the launch of a royalty portfolio largely composed of precious metals.
Gold ETFs continue to gain traction with investors, particularly institutional investors, although retail buying has been significant. The South African equivalent of gold ETF's reported a 100 percent rise in assets on a year-to-date basis.

Weakness

Gold prices fell this week partly on a recommendation from the Chief Economist at Goldman Sachs to sell gold on expectations of a turnaround in financial markets and a slowdown in the fall of the U.S. dollar.
One of London’s jewelers issued a profit warning after reporting jewelry sales were off 7 percent for November.
Gold de-hedging slowed markedly in the third quarter with only 980,000 ounces or 31 metric tones being closed out for the period.

Opportunity

The World Gold Council highlighted that they expect gold demand to set a new record in China this year as robust economic growth and slightly higher inflation numbers have raised demand for the precious metal.
This week it was reported that China lifted import restrictions on silver that have been in place for the past eight years.
Platinum rose as we closed out the week on news that supply cuts in South Africa, largely due to work stoppages brought on by safety issues, may cause output to fall short of demand by as much as 265,000 ounces this year.

Threat

Threats to new mine developments, even in Canada, took center stage this week as construction was stopped on the Galore Creek project. So far, $430 million of investment has been poured into the mine.
Capital cost for construction, which had been in the $2 billion range and ballooned to nearly $5 billion, has now placed the viability of the project into question.
Potential sovereign interdiction by a national investment fund with the goal of scuttling a major takeover and consolidation in the iron ore industry, was discussed in the press this week.

Bob Hoye Interview (Audio MP3)

Paste it in your player.

OVERDRAWN AT THE CENTRAL BANK

http://www.howestreet.com/audio/bobhoye30112007.mp3

Hier nur zwei Vorteile beim steigenden USD :

1. Cheaper Gold und Silber fuer die Arabs und Asiaten mit ihren Fiat $ . :D..tausche Oil gegen Gold.

2. Man kann wieder in eine bessere Waehrung wechseln oder Rohstoffe damit kaufen, die Basemetalls sind schon wieder am steigen.

Die zwei Punkte sind nun am laufen, Christmas in India und China, endlich mehr Gold fuer den Fiat den sie horten oder loswerden wollen.

Thanks Goldman Sachs & Merry Christmas.

Die Nachfrage wird sicherlich ansteigen was Gold und Silber angeht naechste Woche, wenn Tokio aufmacht koennte man schon sehen welche Richtung die EM naechste Woche einschlagen.

Ich bin optimistisch, und ihr ?

Gruss

Eldo

IMO the whole thing will backfire, sooner or later !

Flipp a coin....

Dh. einer wird draufzahlen....

Jetzt bist genauso schlau wie vorher, mein Magen sagt BUY obendrauf bei mir kam der Reiter zweimal.

Interessant diese dubiose mechanik wenn ich die Charts anschau, das es ein Zufall war bezweifle ich, das stinkt zum Himmel.

Aufgepasst, am und um den 16. & 30. November faellt Kupfer, Nickel, Blei und Palladium gleichzeitig ab als wenn der Bedarf weit gesunken ist.

...laut CNBC vielleicht , jedenfalls die Derivate Blase ist enorm.!!

Der Dow fiel auch aber machte dann den abudreher am 11. und 27. November mit Hurrah Santa Claus hoch am 30.November. rechtzeitig fuer die Santa rally.

Gold wurde schon vorher geshorted zum Auftakt ab dem 7. November -30. November asl der USD aufwachte, kurzfristig, max. drei monate.

Die USD rally muss man ausnutzen wenn die technische korrektur erledigt ist.....und die Leute wieder aufwachen in 2008......

Die Charts schaun so aus als wenn nun die Basemetalls steigen, Minen wie Teck und FCX zeigten das am HUI an.

Schon interessant wie GS das macht und den Markt manipuliert.

Das kann man auch ausnutzen, works both ways.

777 or 888 .......hipp-hopp as usual, lets see !

Haben wir einen 8. und scho lacht einer.....

Den U$ IDX gib ich max. 78 dann hauts'n zam.

Sicher, die koennen das in die Laenge ziehen aber irgendwann ist es aus das sie sich gegenseitig mit eigenen gedruckten bewerfen und bail outs machen die sie als Chapter 11 ausbuchen und keiner darf sich aufregen wenn Ben mit dem Heli kommt.
Desto mehr die sinken umso mehr drucken sie weiter und helfen einander diese ZB's / FEDs mit Goldman Sachs Konsorten.
Die haben noch Glueck das sie ein paar treue Prinzen haben die auch verschwinden frueher oder spaeter.
Irgendwann machts einen Schepperer....wo die Panik aufkommt,. sie wollen erstmal ruhige Weihnachten und darum haben sie das gemacht.
So kurz vorm Weihnachtsgeschaeft noch eine Zinssenkung damit Wall Mart Umsatz macht, we love Ben !

Next year guys !!...next year....the debts missile is airborn so oder so.

@Evil

Ich koennte dir nun viele gruende nennen warum das schief geht.

Ich sage nur einen....History repeats itself or it looks almost the same.

Fakt ist desto mehr Geld im Umlauf gesetzt wird umso hoeher steigt die Inflation eines Tages, die ist doch jetzt schon da bis eine Hyperinflation wird. 2009 -..........

Dann fallen die leute vom glauben ab und suchen sich eine andere sicherheit wie gold die den wert behaelt.

When the shit hits the fan, they alwas took gold and silber, why not again ?

3 billionen asiaten koennen sich nicht irren, aber die depperten aus dem westen, denen hat man eine andere wertschaetzung in den medien gelernt.

Mach mal den Test.... 500 Euro oder ein Kruger Rand.

Was liegt denn besser in der Hand ?

Got it ??

XEX