Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

Ich habe keine Calls und Puts mehr !

Mir ist physisch lieber, ausserdem gewinnen nur 10% in dem Markt auf Kosten der anderen 90%.

Mir war das zum Schluss zu stressig, habe meinen Reibach trozt einiger Verluste gemacht dieses mit einigen Glueck und Bauchgefuehl.

Die naked shorts in New York oder wo immer die sind kriegen auch noch ihre Lektion wie jeder im Leben.

Hier Marc Faber...zwei videos etwas aelter immer noch sehenswert

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r4YMtE3uWac

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5lfAzq-ni4&feature=related

For the moment it is more than disturbing to suffer financially from the dalliances of those running the country and The Gold Cartel bankers on Wall Street, but that is the way it is.
They are having their way with gold and have a free rein to do so, until their current supply of central bank gold dries up.

Goldstandard, wer weiss ob der wieder kommt...bitte schaut Euch den Video an, wer nichts sehen will der kann beim zweiten link Walter's Gold-Silbermusik hoeren.

Abolish the federal reserve & go back to 100% gold standard:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1Wv1f_wJWM

Lehar..hier

http://www.hartgeld.com/filesa…nd-Silber_Franz-Lehar.mp3

Clarius... ... sehe ich auch so.

Ira Epstein & Company Weekly Metal Report

..The Impact of a Strong Dollar

The impact of a bottom in the Dollar is moving markets. The move comes in the form of waves. The initial wave is clearly one of bearishness in metals. You might ask “why”? The reason has to do with fear. Fear of “something” is often the driving force, driving both to higher prices. A collapsing Dollar, war, inflation and so on motivate investors to abandon things they think will lose value and covet things they believe will gain in value. That time has temporarily come and gone for Gold.

Gold has temporarily lost its “coveted” position. The key word here is “temporarily” as I believe that once the US economy rebound sets in, even with a stronger Dollar, metal prices will rebound due to increased inflation along with increased real physical demand for Gold and Silver. However, the market is not yet near that point. Rather, I see the metal markets as being in a liquidation mode.

As such, my expectation is that rallies will not hold and that price breaks will come easier and at times be larger than most expect.

Not all is lost for the longer term Bulls. This phase in my opinion is but a correction in a market that will once again turn bullish from lower but not dramatically lower price levels. The key for now is to play both sides of the market, looking for profit opportunities, while keeping tight control of Dollar risk....more

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1210799606.php
June Gold

Let’s look at a Daily Chart of June Gold.
old is in a Downtrend. The “yellow” lines I have placed over the daily bars have a pattern of lower-lows and lower-highs. That is what technicians like me use to define a Downtrend.

Gold is not oversold as the graph at the bottom of the chart, the Stochastic Study, is going sideways with readings of both the “K” and “D” lines staying in the 30s. That means that downside momentum has locked in.

The “white” lines are Bollinger Bands. Bollinger Bands are an algorithm in which I use 2-standard deviations from a mathematical mean to derive a 95% probability. In plain English, this means that 95% of the time market prices will stay within these “white” bands. When prices hit them, the hitting of them to me becomes a profit objective given that there is only a 5% chance prices will stay above or below them.

Therefore, my initial downside target is $844.3, the current value of the Bollinger Band Bottom. That number will change daily as prices change, but the $840 level seems a reasonable downside target.
You can easily plot this value out in our OST-IraChart Software.

Conclusion and Recommendation

I see no reason in the short-term to become bullish on gold prices. As a market technician, I am temporarily in the Bear Camp and will most likely stay there until prices close back up and over the 18-Day Moving Average of Closes, the “red” line on the above chart.

Unless the market gets itself oversold, rallies are short sales opportunities. At this time, I prefer being short with a stop on that short position at 890.9 looking for the 845 price level as my downside profit objective.
Silver is locked into a broad trading range, with a current range top of 17.37 and a trading range bottom of 16.05. That represents a lot of ground, meaning there is no ‘breakout” point that makes a lot of sense.

Rather, what I see is a market that has downside bias. I say this since the 100, 45 and 18-Day Moving Average of Closes are all above current price levels. When this occurs, downside bias takes over and rallies often falter as price action will need some event to get prices back over these three key moving averages.

Stochastics are neutral, with a reading in the mid forties. With prices under the key moving average, I take this to mean that the price break down to the last low of 16.05 has not left the market in an oversold condition. This leaves this market ripe for further downside testing.

The downside target if prices break through 16.51 is 16.155.

Makes sense to me....just a part of the whole article...

http://www.midasletter.com/com…-and-Oil-Price-Limits.php

Gold and Oil Price Limits
By James West
Wedensday, May 14th, 2008

Believe what you will, if every talking head in a suit out there agrees that gold is a “safe haven” investment when currencies start to emit the scent of a most unpleasant perfume, its money.
The only way we will ever see a reduction in global demand for money is if the population of human beings collapses dramatically (an inevitability, at some point in geo-time scale, considering the finite essence of all things), or we suddenly come up with a range of technologies that miraculously feed, clothe and house the whole planet to their heart’s content. Neither event likely to occur in anyone old enough to read’s lifetime.

Unlike gold, oil is consumed finally, its role as an energy carrier completed once and for all upon combustion. While we still have billions of barrels locked up in everything from shale to sand to tires, the costs of extraction to some degree negate the supply side possibilities. Gold, theoretically, is never lost, but only recycled. The exception is the minute (relatively) quantities lost to ablation – the incrementally-eroded- through- wear portion – and the dental inventory safely slumbering in the mouths of un-exhumed relatives beneath our feet in quiet neighbourhoods.

With this in mind, it is forgivable to mistakenly presume that a limited supply under pressure from growing and never ending demand might result in an terminally steep upward price trajectory, but I beg to differ.

In the case of oil, for example, one need only ask one’s self, “At what price gasoline-per-gallon do I join the 95% of the planet’s population that can’t afford to drive?”

There is a figure, no matter how rich you are, that you can arrive at. So there’s the rub: With every dollar increase in the price of gasoline, fewer drivers are starting the car, and are electing instead for the bike, horse, or feet. Therefore, there is a point in the not-too-distant-future where the diminishing demand will fall below the available supply, and that is the point (in a perfect world) where the price of oil would peak, and start to fall. Thanks to the massive Perception Management Machine, popularly known as “journalism” under contract to the governments and bankers who collude daily to fleece Joe Average, the real peak will probably arrive much later, allowing the perpetrators of (what will then become) the bubble to profit by shorts and bankruptcies all the way back down again.

That, I predict, will be the terminal point of the Petroleum Age, because co-incident with the impoverishment of the nation through unaffordable transportation, and compounded by an urban design mentality (or utter lack thereof) where a one hour commute by car is considered normal, there will be a rather prolonged period of a famine of sorts, because who will be able to afford a loaf of bread that costs $25 per kilometer just to ship?

At this point, civil unrest will prompt government to bite the bullet and jump on the alternative fuel technologies bandwagon with genuine gusto, so the benefit to humanity will be, at long last, the mass adoption of cleaner fuels and technologies so our children and theirs will hopefully be able at least to breathe.

The unfortunate, but nevertheless un-mourned victim of this will petroleum, and the price of all its by-products. Hydrocarbon-based plastics will be replaced by natural glycogens from clean energy production, and the tenaciously-trapped over-priced oil in shales beneath the Rocky Mountains will be permitted to rest in peace, their hydrocarbon content no longer of sufficient value to extract.

Thank God - necessity is indeed the mother of invention.

But getting back to gold. Now there’s a tough one to figure out. With every collapsed currency, a new generation of bankrupts appreciates profoundly the inherent value of gold. There is no conceivable replacement, because there is no substance that can stand up to the scrutiny of history and maintain its appeal as the Ultimate Store of Value.

At what point does the price of gold thwart desire of its possession? Contrary to oil, for every dollar gold rises in value, the more precious a metal it becomes, both to brides and bankers. Is it conceivable that future generations will purchase with un-batted eyes an ounce of gold for ten thousand, twenty thousand…or even one hundred thousand dollars?

What might diminish the universal desire to possess wealth in the form of gold? To that question I can fathom no answer, except the drastic ones earlier suggested.
In the context of these deliberations, $2,000 gold is an easy call.

James West
Publisher

.. Monday,

May 12, 2008

Dear Friends, (of the USA, DOW and USD)

Markets are trading as predicted in this week newsletter and big fall is on the on late tuesday in metals and other commodities but watch the Wednesday.

Million dollar portfolio, Oil toward $65, gold toward $700 and dollar index toward $98.00, Melt down in commodities and currencies on the way.

---------------------->>>>>>>

Dear Mahendra

....I watched.... .....and keep on watching.

Are you looking for investors in your million dollar portfolio ?

Maybe you're mixed up with the Oilprice and mean the price of Uranium at 65 USD or 2 USD for one Euro in few years ?

Now its Thursday morning here, Oil is at 123.70 USD, Gold 862.70 $ , Silver 16.52 $ and USD at 73.39 USDX

From now until end of next week counts, than we talk again.

Gold may fall to 840 USD max, Oil to 107 USD, Silver to 16 $, USDX to 75

Well, its my prediction... I don't work for US Bankers or the FED and scare people who are in Gold or Silver. (not excusing you)

Sure,there are waves, waves of foreclosures in California, do you need a new house ?

With all respect to you, your prediction won't happen,as you did before apologize for the wrong predictions,... you will again.

Once the full moon is behind us gold bugs the worst is over.

By the way, I could not find or see you at CNBC at all,it was another hoax from you.

I don't dream when I write...thanks for being my contra indicator lately.

First lets see if the USD gets over 75 USDX than I believe a little of your prediction, 98 USDX is a pipedream, please wake up !

You said in the radio interview, you can tell me later if this is bullshit, I will if you are wrong again.

You are not 85% accurate anymore, since you left Africa, maybe the air in the USA is not good for you.

God bless

XEX

Bob Hopper sagt in seiner Mittwoch Radio Show...

1000 Haueser werden pro Tag z.Zt. in Calfornia versteigert, ist die naechste grosse Versteigerung die Citi Bank die man nicht mehr reparieren kann laut einen Artikel ?

28000 Haeuser im April, eine Steigerung von 40% zum Maerz 2008.

45.000 kommen naechsten Monat die bald versteigert werden und das nur in Kalfornien !

Auction waves...big ones !

JPM Chef sagt die Rezession faengt gerade erst an !

Und die happy clappy crowd in Wallstreet redet von Goldilocks ?

Tick - tack die Bombe tickt... das Kartenhaus bricht auseinander mit oder ohne Gelddrucken.

Got Gold/Silver ?

XEX

Antwort von Mahendra ist...

IT IS A PART OF NATURE, GOPING UP AND COMING DOWN AGAIN GOIN UP. SUN RISE
BUT SUN ALSO SET.

Meine Antwort...

Dear Mahendra

The wave you see are far to high, take your sunglasses off at sunrise and sunsets.

This is my sun...please watch Marc Faber... A bright guy !

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r4YMtE3uWac

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5lfAzq-ni4&feature=related

Cheers

XEX

Astro, short term trading...

http://www.astrocycle.net/Short.shtml

Pandadler

Sicher kannst du fuer deine China Reise ein paar Euros fuer Yuan irgendwo wechseln, ich kann jedenfalls im Ausland wie D z.B kein Yuan Konto aufmachen soweit ich weiss.
Lasse mich gerne belehren das es nicht so ist ein Unterkonto bei der Sparkasse oder CS von mir aus fuehren und von dort aus zu rein und raus handeln.
Ich versuchte das mal mit Indonesischen Rupee, selbst dort geht es nicht ein Unterkonto aufzumachen.
Der Yuan ist noch gesperrt bis 2010...lese mal unten.

Gruss

XEX

Official: Yuan won't be fully convertible for 5 years

(Agencies)
Updated: 2005-07-25 14:46

China won't make its currency fully convertible for at least five years because it worries hedge funds may force the yuan to plunge, much as happened to the Korean won and Thai baht during the 1997 Asian financial crisis, said Li Deshui, a member of the central bank's monetary committee.

"There's more than $800 billion to $1 trillion of hedge funds in the world and the Chinese financial system is relatively weak," Li, 61, said in an interview with Bloomberg News.

"If the yuan becomes fully convertible it would be attacked by these hedge funds."

China last week ended its currency's decade-old peg to the U.S. dollar, allowing the yuan, also known as the renminbi, to strengthen 2.1 percent from its previously fixed rate of about 8.3, marking the first step toward a more flexible exchange rate regime.

A decade ago, Thailand's decision to let the baht drop triggered the start of the Asian financial crisis and a wave of devaluations of other currencies in the region and in Latin America. China was the only major developing economy to maintain the value of its currency during the crisis, earning plaudits from countries including the U.S. and Japan that had feared any such move could trigger another round of competitive devaluations.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/e…-07/25/content_463100.htm

Am 20.5. (18:00) startet der Hartgeld-Club II - wieder im Extrazimmer der Pizzeria Caorle.
Diesesmal als reine Diskussions-Veranstaltung ohne Vortrag, max. 25 Plätze.
Wer Hunger hat...auf neue Infos und eine Pizza/Pasta...

Milly, ich bin auf Tsunami Watch bis zum Vollmond ,da schlaft man wenig und schaut gut hin.
Den Mahendra habe ich es voll gegeben, jetzt fuehle ich mich besser.
Klar, diese Panda gibts auch in Yuan, Gold ist Geld egal wo.
Die Waehrung ueberhaupt, wegen den Hedgfonds und PPT der alles manipulieren will aber irgedwann gegen die Wand faehrt mit der Druckerpresse.
Ich habe neben Panda's auch einige Lunar's sogar eine Muenze mit 32 Unzen Gold, den Taler sollte ich mir umhaengen beim naechsten Forentreff dann erkennt man mich sofort.
Dann koennen die Leute sage, schau der Eldo lasst doch den Kopf haengen wie wir immer vermutet haben.
Im uebrigen als ich das letzte mal aus dem super scharfen Flughafen M rausgeflogen bin hatte ich sehr viele Krugerrand im Handgepaeck die keiner sah oder beanstandet hat.
Nichtmal 1 kg und das viele Cash, aber mein Zippo haben sie mir abgenommen, ich bin draufgestiegen und lies es dann dort.
Moechte nicht wissen was die Zipfel alles heimschleppen nach Feierabend die haben bestimmt genug Manikuer Sets daheim.
Die zwei Gasfeuerzeuge interessierten die nicht, das Zippo Sturmfeuerzeug ging nicht einmal weil das Benzin aus war.
Solche Idioten sagen ich nur, meine goldene Omega Seamaster Uhr und Halskette tickt auch nicht wenn man durch den Scanner geht.
Die ticken nicht richtig, und gold tickt nicht, das ist der Unterschied.
Man koennte sich ja auch was anders herstellen damit, theoretisch sehen die das auch nicht..

XEX

Milly, beim Security Check nach der Passkontrolle wissen die Zeitarbeiter bestimmt nicht welcher Staatsbuerger du bist.

Das naechstemal stecke ich mir ein paar Kruger in die Hosentasche und lass sonst nichts am Koerper was den Scanner ausloesen koennte.

Schade ich habe einen Moneybelt, Guertel mit Reissverschluss da passen ca. 30 halbe Kruger Rand rein, leider ist die Schnalle aus Metall und den muss man meisten abnehmem und in die Plastikwanne legen die sie dort haben wie Notebook etc.

Sicher es gibt spezielle Scanner die auch Edelmetalle aufspueren aber die haben sie nicht installiert in den meisten Flughaefen.

Ich surfte mal rum in der Sache und nun machte ich den grossen Test fuer die Aktion XYZ die du noch durchziehen willst.

Fuer die Aktion brauchst mich nicht, ich lauf so schnell wie ich kann mit deinen Gold.

Ciao du Geizkragen

XEX

Just joking, wohin kommen wir hier wenn ein Gold und Silberbug vom anderen stehlen muss.
Wir holen uns das vom PPT bei den Preisen, leider nicht gratis aber sehr preiswert...
Funny, jetzt spielst auf einmal wieder den armen und das bei deinen supertrades und Frachter im Depot.
Mit Silber brauchst nichts schmuggeln, nimm Diamanten, noch besser als Gold oder Platin.
Die sollte man auch noch fuer die Krise bereit halten. :D...nix wie weg mit dem Fiatgeld.

Milly wird nun Zeit du legst was anders in deinen Safe und wechselst dein Bild sonst glauben die Leute du bist ein getarnter Papiergeld Tiger.

Nimm doch das mal her...ist bald viel wertvoller als deine Fiatdollars.