Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

Wer haette das gedacht das anstatt Verlust bei Goldman Sachs nun 11 Mrd. USD Gewinn rausspringen in 2007.
Die haben die anderen Banken schoen beschissen und wussten was passiert.
Man hat denen die lausigen Hypoteken vermittelt und Banken wie die UBS in der Schweiz musste 10 Mrd SFR sich ans Knie nageln.
Mit der FED im Ruecken und wissen bevor es andere wissen laesst sich so ein Profit gut erklaeren.
Waerend der Dow und HUI faellt steigt GS im Kurs, man haette GS Aktien kaufen sollen anstatt Goldaktien sagten mir viele.
So wie es ausschaut solange Goldman Sachs so weiter macht sind die Goldbugs voll unter Kontrolle dieser Verbrecherbank.

Gruss

Eldo

Announcing a record profit in the third quarter, Goldman also noted that it had set aside $9.25 billion, almost $420,000 per employee, in compensation. When fourth-quarter results are factored in, that total could swell to an $11 billion pool, or $500,000 per employee.

http://nymag.com/nymetro/news/bizfinance/biz/features/15197/

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - The global credit crisis is expected to hang over the U.S. stock market again next week as three of Wall Street's largest investment banks report earnings, though any more subprime mortgage surprises could be offset by what are expected to be some strong earnings from the technology industry, strategists said.

http://www.marketwatch.com/new…2C36FB20D%7D&siteid=yhoof

linar

Bill Bonner und viele andere reden von irgendwelche Bomben die ticken.
Das ganze laeuft bisher wie ein Uhrwerk, keiner weiss wie lange die Batterie haelt und zu welchen Zeitpunkt die Bombe platzen wird.

Das nennt man bis jetzt die ‘Santa Monica Technique’: Man wettet gegen Unternehmen oder Anlagewerte, die fallen sollten… und profitiert dann ordentlich, wenn sie irgendwann schließlich in die Knie gehen.

IMO, solange Gsax den Markt zum Narren haelt geht gar keine Bombe los.

Die FED und IMF kontrolliert die EZB und man druckt unverschaemt weiter ins astronomische und verteilt das Geld um den Betrug weiter am Leben zu erhalten.

Na dann warten wir mal geduldig weiter und schaun was bis Maerz 2008 noch passiert. Mehr kann man nicht machen ausser hoffen das die Gangster mal ihr Fett abbekommen.

XEX

linar

Fuer alle die irgendwelche Investments in Kanadischen Dollar haben kann man nur hoffen das die kanadische Regierung beim Amero nicht mitmacht und damit den CAD mit USA Wasser verduennt.

Schablonski

Diese Ami Nutten gehen mir schon langsam am Wecker.
Lasst doch die Amis baden gehen, die kehren sich auch einen Dreck ueber andere und machen es sich nur auf Kosten anderer weiterhin gemuetlich.

Raubritter der Welt. die mit ihre Army die Welt in Schach halten.
Aber der Tag kommt wo man ihnen eine Lektion erteilt und ihr Imperium zusammenbricht wie damals Rom es erlebt hat.

Schablonski

Sir Alan Greenspan wurde zum Ritter geschlagen von der Queen.
Wie alle die im Freimaurer Clan mitwirken.

Tut mir Leid aber ich sehe es wird nichts besser in Deutschland und genauso wenig hier.
Die amerikanische Aussenpolitik sorgt das noch mehr Chaos ist auf der Welt.

Die EU Grenzen sind offen, das Gesindel kommt rein und sorgt fuer noch mehr Aerger von den Ostblocklaendern die neu dabei sind.
Viele Einbrecherbanden fahren rein und raus aus Oesterreich und Deutschland, keiner stoppt die mehr an der Grenze.
Im Gegenzug werden die Deutschen noch mehr ueberwacht,bespitzelt und besteuert fuer den Unfug.

Wenn dann noch die Rezession kommt und Hyperinflation wird es noch schlimmer.
Egoismus, Neid, Hass, Frust und Angst...so sieht die Zukunft aus.

Die Politiker sind an vielen Schuld, sie werden noch belohnt und wieder gewaehlt von den Schlucker obendrauf.

Zum ....

Hast Recht, das Thema ist endlos und frustrierend genug.
Ich glaube ihr Deutschen werdet genauso ausverkauft wie die Weissen in Zimbabwe und Suedafrika eines Tages und den Schweinen zum Frass vorgeworfen wenn keiner aufsteht und was dagegen macht.
Ich wuerde eine zeitlang soweit rechts waehlen das ich links rauskomme.
Diese liberale sch.... hat nun das Ergebniss gebracht das fast jeder die Schnauze voll hat von dieser Art von Politik..

Ok, zurueck zum Thema, auch depressiv z.Zt. Gold $ Silber.
Noch eine Woche Tauziehen dann aber abschalten bis Januar.

Enjoy your weekend, Kopf hoch !

XEX

Letztes Jahr hatten wir die selbe Situation, da gings aber kurz mal rauf und Ende Dezember bis 10.Januar runter, dann kam der Ausbruch nach oben.

History repeats itself ?????

Zu Weihnachten will Gsax gut dastehen.

Und Santa Ben mit Krampus Hank bringt wieder Vertrauen in den USA -D.

Kurz gesagt wir haben wieder gut manipuliert.

Wen interessiert noch M3 money supply, der wird nicht mehr veroeffentlicht....who cares ?

$pinat ist noch genug da, auch der importiete wirkt Wunder sagt Hank.

Ob nun 1.2 trillionen Deriviate gegen Gold und HUI oder 1.5 trillion USD ist doch eh egal in diesen Endgame.

Alles Luegen und Betrug im Endeffekt, der Markt ignoriert das bis jetzt.

Artikel von LMC...hier nur einige Abschnitte
..bei manchen koennte man gleich kotzen.

Those who doubt whether the Cartel has the capacity to manipulate the markets (and especially the larger markets like the multi-trillion dollar currency and bond markets) are invited to inform themselves about the multi-trillion dollar derivatives colossus at J.P. Morgan Chase, or the $346 trillion in June 2007 (up from $291 trillion in Dec. 2006) derivatives position at the Bank for International Settlements (the Central Banker's Bank) devoted to “Interest Rate Contracts” (see http://www.bis.org. Then follow the path: Statistics>Derivatives>Table 19). Note that that Derivatives figure increased by some $55 trillion in just six months!

To Deepcaster all this indicates that the Fed-led Cartel will go to significant lengths necessary to control long-term interest rates (in addition to short term rates, which, it is widely acknowledged, they also control), cap the price of gold and otherwise achieve Central Bank ends.

Finally, we issue a word of caution to our readers. So long as The Cartel is in a very active interventional mode (e.g. as in taking down the price of Gold, Silver and Oil) do not be lured into thinking that the periodic up spikes in the prices of Gold, Silver and Oil present a "breakout" or a buying opportunity.
As a practical matter, technical breakouts are sometimes a lure designed to suck in more "longs" prior to a subsequent deeper takedown.

Exchange-Traded Derivatives

Exchange-Traded Derivatives soared 27% to an all-time-high $681 trillion in the third quarter 2007, according to BIS figures.

The largest single category - - Interest Rate Derivatives - - increased 31% to $594 trillion, during the third quarter.

These increases reflect a remarkable increase in risk, for many reasons, including the increased aggregate magnitude of the leverage they reflect, and the concomitant increased opportunities for counterparty default.

However, being exchange-traded, they are, to a degree visible. Yet that other main category of derivatives-over the counter (OTC) are not visible, except for the BIS and other reporting agencies disclosures. Yet the inherent risks are, if anything, greater.

Over The Counter (OTC) Derivatives

Consider the import of the data from the BIS' own website - - Review Table 19 at http://www.bis.org. Follow the path: Statistics>Derivatives>Table19. Note that as of December, 2006 there were:

$6.475 trillion commodities contracts (excluding gold) outstanding
$40.239 trillion foreign exchange contracts outstanding
$291.115 trillion interest rate market contracts outstanding
But consider the stunning increases in OTC Derivatives in just the six months between December, 2006 and June, 2007. As of June, 2007 there were:

$7.141 trillion in commodities contracts (excluding gold), an approx. $666 billion (10%) increase in only six months
$48.620 trillion in foreign exchange contracts, a $8.31 trillion (approx. 20%) increase in only 6 months.
$346.937 trillion in interest rate market contracts, a $55.822 trillion (approx. 19%) increase in only 6 months
(source: http://www.bis.org. Path: statistics>derivatives>Table19)

What is also obvious from a comparison invited by Table 19 - - comparing June, 2005 figures with June, 2007 figures - - is the increasing systemic threat this interventional regime imposes. Note also the dramatic jump in most categories of derivatives from June, 2005 to June, 2007.

Gold

Increases in the amounts of OTC derivatives outstanding for the Gold Market are perhaps the most stunning:

From the $359 billion outstanding at end-June 2004 they nearly tripled to $1,051 trillion at end-June 2007, an increase of approx. 290% (source: BIS “Table A - - OTC Derivatives Market, Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives market Activity”).

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Note: While BIS Table 19 shows a drop in OTC derivatives contracts for gold in the 6 months from the end-December 2006 figure of $640 billion to the end-June 2007 figure of $426 billion, it should be noted that the end-June 2007 number ($1.051 trillion) from the BIS Triennial Survey is a more comprehensive number, generically akin to the “upward revisions” which the U.S. BLS regularly makes. Doubtless some substantial portion of the foregoing OTC derivatives contracts are for entirely commercial purposes, but with publicly visible exchange-traded derivatives also available for commercial purposes (and considering publicly traded companies incur considerable risk by engaging in “dark liquidity” OTC transactions) it strains credulity to claim that most or all OTC contracts are for purely commercial, i.e. non-interventional, purposes.

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Liquidity Injections

For an analysis of why the kind of liquidity injections The Fed has been making (e.g. the $40 billion “fund” made available to banks on December 12, 2007) increase the systemic (and other) risks, see “The Fed Cure Worsens the Disease” later in this document.

The December 12, 2007 $40 billion commitment was presumably occasioned by the credit markets continuing “seize-ups” which began in August, 2007 and which are manifested by:

The asset-backed U.S. commercial paper market shrinking 17 weeks in a row (as of December 12, 2007), and widening U.S. Dollar, Sterling Libor, and Euribor spreads. For example, “the spread between the rate of interest on 3-month U.S. Treasury Bills and AA-rated asset-backed commercial paper has widened to 270 basis points from a mere 30 basis points earlier this year…”

Financial Times, London, M. Wolf, December 12, 2007

In our view, it is doubtful whether liquidity injections of this sort will solve the banks liquidity challenges (precipitated, we might add, by Fed policies and the banks own careless lending practices), but one outcome is clear.

The banks will get their money, anonymously, (see Deepcaster’s article on “Dark Liquidity”) and at below market interest rates, which should be highly profitable to them. But, of course, this action gives no help to struggling homeowners facing ARM resets, or to retirees on fixed incomes, or to those losing jobs to (often international-banker financed) outsourcing, or to all of the “little guys and gals” suffering from rises in the cost of living and a substantial loss of purchasing power of their U.S. Dollars.

So now let us take a brief look back to see how all this "Interventional Firepower" is manifested in the Markets.

The August, September and October 2007 Market Interventions

A late 2007 example of such a Fed-led Central Bankers Cartel takedown was the stunning October 2, 2007 $18-in-a-day takedown of Gold Bullion. Consider seriously the fact that this takedown was accomplished in the face of extremely bullish Fundamentals and Technicals.

Considering the motivation for such a takedown, Deepcaster reiterates that Gold & Silver, the monetary metals (as well as the Strategic Tangible Assets such as Crude Oil) are the “Mortal Enemies” of the Central Bankers’ Fiat Currencies and Treasury Securities. The Cartel simply cannot afford for investors to long regard Gold & Silver as the ultimate (or even alternate) stores and measures of value as that would decrease the legitimacy of their Treasury Securities and Fiat Currencies.

Indeed, a measure of the historical effectiveness of the Central Banker Cartel in suppressing Gold & Silver prices is that, in inflation-adjusted terms, Gold would have to exceed U.S. $2,200 an ounce to top its all-time high of $850 in 1980.

Unemployment Figures

He explains why contemporary unemployment numbers are bogus. Today, the unemployment number does not include those unemployed who have been discouraged and out of work for more than a year. So they are taken out of the work force completely automatically. This results in knocking about 5 million unemployed out of the broader measures of unemployment.

Thus, unemployment is about 50% higher than is commonly alleged. And thus, "Today unemployment is really up around 12%."

Consumer Price Inflation Figures

These distortions have very real, and usually adverse, consequences for citizens. Consider, Williams says, the methodology developed several years ago by Mike Boskin and Alan Greenspan for generating the Consumer Price Index. In their (erroneous in Williams' and Deepcaster's) view the CPI was supposedly overstating inflation so they "fixed" it from its prior condition of (allegedly) overstating inflation.

And here is how they did it:

Originally, the whole purpose of the CPI was to "measure the change in the cost of a fixed basket of goods over time." But Boskin and Greenspan said that we should allow for substitution because people can buy hamburger when the price of steak goes up.

But, of course, "if you allow substitutions you aren't measuring a constant standard of living, you're measuring the cost of survival." Williams correctly concludes.

But the effect of this statistical chicanery is very real and very adverse to, for example, retirees because the CPI was, and is, being used to adjust Social Security payments to compensate for increases in the cost of living.

Today, as a result of the Boskin-Greenspan "fix" (implemented in the Clinton Administration) it understates those increases and therefore under-compensates retirees for those costs.

In a similar manipulatory vein, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) during the Clinton Administration constructed and began to employ a weighting regimen whereby if the price of something went up it automatically got a lower weight in calculating the CPI, but if it went down in price it automatically got a higher weight. The result, of course, was, and still is, to further shaft those people (like Social Security recipients) whose income was dependent upon the CPI measure.

"If the same CPI were used today as it was used when Jimmy Carter was President, Social Security checks would be 70% higher," Williams dramatically emphasizes.

The Cartel End Game

Deepcaster agrees with Williams that we are looking at an international crisis of unprecedented proportion. It is also clear to Deepcaster that those who run the Fed-led Cartel cannot be so stupid as to not know where their hyperinflation of the money supply (according to shadowstats.com M3, as of October, 2007, was increasing at an annual rate of 15% which is a five year doubling time!), and other policies are leading us.

Thus if The Cartel leaders know what they are doing what is their End Game?

The only rational conclusion to draw is that they expect (and may even be pushing) the Dollar to go into further and further decline, and to continue their other policies, until there is a Systemic Crisis. (Very short-term, Deepcaster earlier Forecast the U.S. Dollar to “bounce” into the 1st Quarter of 2008 - - a Forecast that is being fulfilled - - but that does not affect the fact that The Primary Trend for the U.S. Dollar is down.)

And we expect that systemic crisis will likely lead The Fed-led Cartel to implement the final and dramatic stage of its apparent “End Game” plan which Deepcaster describes in detail in his June, 2007 Letter posted at http://www.deepcaster.com (path: Latest Letter>Archives). Consult Deepcaster’s Letter for details, including the backup documentation.

The “Real Numbers” as of November, 2007

That the U.S. economy is headed in the direction of stagflation is pretty clear from the shadowstats.com November, 2007 statistics.
According to shadowstats.com, Real Consumer Price Inflation is running in excess of 11% a year and, as we commented above, the money supply figure (M3) is increasing at 15% per year, or a doubling time of about 5 years. Moreover, GDP growth is a negative number. It would appear that The Cartel-charted-course (which we describe in our June Letter) toward a hyperinflationary Recession/Depression as a catalyst for a painful transition into the apparent “End Game”, is on track.

To be sure, this course involving an explosion of the money supply (“money from helicopters” to use the phrase associated with Chairman Bernanke) and the massive and increasing use of derivatives to intervene in a wide variety of markets is fraught with danger.

Deepcaster, Warren Buffet and Jim Sinclair have all pointed out the dangers. Indeed, Sinclair has aptly described the financial system as sitting on a “$20 trillion trembling mountain of derivatives…think Weimar Republic.” Unfortunately Jim Sinclair and Warren Buffet are correct.

In sum, with The Cartel’s increasing use of derivatives comes an increasing risk of a financial meltdown.

We had such a harbinger of one in August with the credit market freeze up of August, 2007 but The Cartel was able to rescue its major International Bank and Wall Street clients from this one.

So far The Cartel has staved off a systemic meltdown. But, alas, it may well not always be so.

Deepcaster

December 14, 2007

Hier ein Economic Indicator Update von Dundee, Mr. Murenbeeld :

Er sieht den Dollar ...nach der ""Vitaminspritze"" der ZB's, wieder bei 1.50 zum Euro in 2008.

Die Frage ist wie lange dauert die Rally vom USD und wie hoch geht der noch..... 78 - 79 USDX ...oder etwa noch hoeher bevor er wieder schnell auf 72 -73 faellt.?
Mahendra sagt er geht sogar ueber 80 und mehr aber das kaufe ich ihm nicht ab. Wenn das so kommt dann koennen wir einpacken und der POG koennte dann bis auf 700 $ fallen wo die 200 MA ist und das Ende vom Bullen unterhalb dieser Marke.

Wer das richtiges timing hat kann einen Fiatgeld Gewinn einfahren wenn er im richtigen Zeitpunkt USD verkauft und in SFR/Euro/CAD wechselt.
Man koennte auch am Hoechstpunkt physisches Gold mit USD kaufen.

Mein erstes Kursziel ist 1.42/Euro und 1.17/SFR sowie 1.035 CAD.
Ob ich die sehe ist eine andere Frage, jedenfalls wird dann der gruene Fiat eingetauscht was die letzte Gelegenheit darstellt USD los zu werden.
Meister wie Jim Rogers und Onkel Harry Schultz machen den selben Zug und verklopfen dann die restlichen USD assets die sie haben.

Solange der Dollar stark ist bleibt Gold schwach, in Euro/SFR/CAD sollte sich Gold und Silber halten bis die PPT $ Show vorbei ist.

Auf kurz oder lang sehe ich den USD mit Paritaet mit dem SFR 1:1.
Leider bis mitte-ende Januar haben die Gold/Silberbugs eine harte Zeit dann sollten wir aus dem tiefen Loch wieder raus sein.
Am besten schaut man bis dort hin nicht auf die Spots oder Aktien und denkt oder macht an was anderes zum abschalten.
Das PPT kann noch trillionen $ gegen Gold werfen, solange die es noch koennen kann man nicht viel erwarten und man muss geduldig abwarten bis diese Manipulation zu ende geht und Gold/Silber sich freistrampelt und die 1000 $ anzielt in 2008.

http://www.murenbeeld.com/Downloads/0712-EconomicMonitor.pdf