Western Areas WKN 854 633 ISIN ZAE000016549 WAR Oder Kebble´s Trojanisches Pferd

Aus MINING.MX vom 07.11.05

PDG hat Hälfte an South Deep, andere Hälfte WAR

Deshalb wird möglicher Barrick-merger Wirkung zeitigen:

S. Africans to vie for South Deep
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[miningmx.com] --A R61bn (US$9,2bn) takeover proposal by Canadian firm Barrick Gold for compatriot Placer Dome has kicked the consolidation of the world’s gold mining industry into motion again – with consequences for the South Africans.

One view is that Gold Fields – only just recovering from Harmony Gold’s unsolicited attentions – and even AngloGold Ashanti will become the next targets as the more powerful North American firms seek to outgrow each other.

“It’s no coincidence that Anglo American has expressed its interest in seeing its 51% stake in AngloGold Ashanti diluted,” said John Clemmow, an analyst at Investec Securities in London. “We can expect a bid for AngloGold Ashanti from Newmont.”

In the world of mining it’s important to be the biggest in market capitalisation and in annual gold output because mining stocks remain relatively small beer against oil, banking, retail and TMT stocks. Commanding the attention of mining-focused and general funds normally means being the biggest gorilla.

The Barrick/Placer Dome combination sees the world’s second and sixth largest gold producers combining to rank above Newmont Mining, which outbid AngloGold Ashanti in 2000 for control of Franco-Nevada and Normandy Mining. Harmony’s failed bid for Gold Fields would have put that entity on top in terms of output if it had been successful.
The only way…is to gobble each other up
Harmony CEO Bernard Swanepoel, who knows a thing or two about consolidation, commented that it will only accelerate. “Gold producers are depleting reserves faster than we’re discovering them. The rising cost structure driven by increased capital costs and diesel prices means that there’s a downward restatement of reserves worldwide.

“The only way for companies to stand still or to show signs of growth is to gobble each other up and to merge. I think that’s probably one of the few such steps that we’ll see in the next year to 18 months.” Swanepoel was speaking on Classic Business.

There’s even talk that Gold Fields will become back into the frame – as the target of AngloGold Ashanti, a merger that was heavily speculated about in 1999 but never materialised. Certainly, it’s thought that AngloGold Ashanti will be unlikely to compete with Barrick’s offer for Placer Dome.

“About 13% of Barrick’s offer is in cash ($1,2bn) and the rest is in equity. That would be difficult for AngloGold Ashanti to beat,” said another South African analyst who preferred not to be named. Having said that it’s likely Gold Fields will become an interesting chip for any number of other firms.

“If you look at all the pieces in the jigsaw, Gold Fields is one of the few companies still out there,” said Leon Esterhuizen, a gold analyst at Investec Securities in Johannesburg. “If I were Norilsk Nickel, I’d be buying Harmony’s 5% stake in Gold Fields to build my overall stake to 25% (Norilsk already owns 20%).”

The permutations are endless. However, one interesting certainty is that a successful bid for Placer Dome by Barrick would be positive for another South African gold share – Western Areas.

It owns 50% of South Deep, a mine on Johannesburg’s West Rand, but following a one-year delay in commissioning found itself short of capital funding and requiring R640m to pay back loans and complete its share of the capital. Placer Dome was giving thought to sue Western Areas for the shortfall until it was repaid in September.

“Given the history between Western Areas and Placer Dome there’s been some stagnation. But a new partner would give some forward momentum,” said David Davis, a gold analyst at Andisa Securities.

Undecided, however, is what Barrick would do with its stake in South Deep.

Though Barrick has been a frequent visitor to South Africa to assess various options, Clemmow said that Barrick is wary of the safety hazards connected to mining in South Africa. “Nobody likes to say it, but it’s true: why would anyone want to buy the death rate of an South African mine?”

For its part, Barrick has expressed an interest in retaining South Deep, partly because it accounts for about 13% of the combined entity’s total gold reserves of 150m oz. But if the company wants to part with its South African asset, it may turn into a bidding war between Gold Fields and AngloGold Ashanti.

Given that either company would also seek to control the entire asset

that could be positive news for Western Areas’ shareholders,
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who haven’t had much to cheer about lately.

Hallo Tambok

...Undecided, however, is what Barrick would do with its stake in South Deep.

...That could be positive news for Western Areas’ shareholders

...it may turn into a bidding war between Gold Fields and AngloGold Ashanti..... das glaube ich weniger,die wollen auch raus aus dem Scenario und investieren lieber im Ausland wo mehr Profit ist.

Placer ist nicht glücklich mit Western Areas warum sollte es Barrick sein besonders bei den grossen Kosten und hedging die WAR hat.

Barrick hat bestimmt kein grosses Interesse an Western Areas, es sei denn man weiss das der Rand bald fällt und es die Absicht der Amerikaner ist die RSA Minen ueber Barrick zu schnappen.

Man teilt dann die Minen auf im Interesse der weiteren Manipulation des POG und hat seine eigenen Hausminen.

Da kommt nicht viel raus fuer den kleinen Investor.

MalcomX,

die Maskerade ist leicht übertrieben.

Nachher erkennen Dich selbst die Hasen nicht mehr wieder.


Gruss

Tambok

"Die meisten und schlimmsten Übel, die der Mensch dem Menschen zugefügt hat, entsprangen dem felsenfesten Glauben an die Richtigkeit falscher Überzeugungen."

Bertrand Russell

"........Barrick sein, besonders bei den grossen Kosten und hedging die WAR hat.

Barrick hat bestimmt kein grosses Interesse an Western Areas, es sei denn man weiss das der Rand bald fällt und es die Absicht der Amerikaner ist die RSA Minen ueber Barrick zu schnappen.

Man teilt dann die Minen auf im Interesse der weiteren Manipulation des POG und hat seine eigenen Hausminen."

Da steht schon viel drin.


Barrick sind Weltmeister im Hedging. Die werden mit den

leidigen WAR Hedgings am ehesten fertig.

Und 25 Mio Unzen in einer komplett funtkionierenden Mine,

da ist man die Restitutionssorgen mehrere Jahre los.

Falls es noch jemand interessiert, neues vom Kebble Mord:

http://www.mg.co.za/articlePag…/breaking_news__national/

http://www.mg.co.za/articlePag…lumnist__john_matshikiza/

So ganz zufällig stehen die beiden letzten Postings

wohl nicht hintereinander.

???? doppelt haelt besser, ein Bericht ueber den Mordfall, der andere ueber sein feudales Leben und seine heroische Bestattung.
Er war schon ein Nationaler Held der Brett, er hat alle mit 4 cents bei WAR sitzen lassen.

""Anyway, Kebble’s funeral was yet another of those post-apartheid party events when you were not sure whether it was supposed to feel like a wedding, a funeral, or someone’s 21st birthday party. ""

Impressionen von Afrika oder (Western Areas) ?

Dali 1938-39. Oil on canvas, 91,5 x 117,5 cm.
Museum Boymans-van Beuningen, Rotterdam

Ja, das ist ein Bild, egal ob LaMancha oder Afrika.

Altmeisterlich angefangen und dann in die Moderne ausgebüchst.


Bei den zusammenhängenden Postings dachte ich

in der Reihenfolge:

1. Kebble muß weg

2. South Deep wird fungibel

Tambok

Ich habe einige super gemalte Kopien von Dali, die in Thailand sind Meister darin. Die malen fuer eine Woche fast alles nach, nicht mal 120 Euro zahlt man dafuer. Nur ein Kenner blickt da durch, wie bei den Uhren.

Ich wuensche Dir nur das Beste mit Western Areas, nur der Rand kann die Rettung bedeuten fuer alle RSA Minen.
Mein Sorgenkind bleibt die Rangy, ansonsten bin ich raus aus Afrika..

Gruss

XAX

Artikel ist chaotisch um nicht zu sagen bekloppt.

Tatsache aber heute 6,75 Rand/USD

Aus BUSINESS DAY vom 08.11.05

Vodafone deal ‘could boost SA’s reserves’
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SA’s gold and foreign exchange reserves rose only slightly last month, but economists expect the Reserve Bank’s accumulation of dollars to pick up as funds flow into the country from British cellphone company Vodafone’s planned acquisition of an additional stake in cellphone company Vodacom.

The Bank said yesterday that gross reserves increased by just $157m last month to $19,7bn after it bought $164m in foreign exchange and the value of gold reserves dropped $7m as a result of a month-on-month decrease in the gold price.

Net reserves, also known as the international liquidity position, rose $163m to $16,22bn.

Standard Bank economist Shireen Darmalingam said the modest rise in foreign exchange reserves was expected as “the weakening of the (rand) made it less attractive to accumulate reserves at a greater pace”.

The rand weakened by about 5% against the dollar last month.

Soaring imports meant the Bank’s import cover ratio was lagging, Darmalingam said.

It declined to 14,7 weeks (3,66 months) in September from 15,3 weeks in August.

Efficient Group economist Nico Kelder said the Bank’s policy not to “aggressively increase their reserve holdings is an indication that it is content with its reserve position”.

Älterer Artikel ais MININGMX vom 31.10.05
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Barrick bid quickens SA pulses

Posted: Mon, 31 Oct 2005
[miningmx.com] -- BARRICK Gold played down speculation its $9.5bn hostile bid for Placer Dome would see it dispose of Placer’s 50% stake in South Deep, a mine which at 45 million oz comprises 20% of Placer’s total gold resources. “We’re quite interested in the turnaround that seems to be coming from South Deep,” said Greg Wilkens, CEO of Barrick Gold.

“It will take some time to understand the challenges in depth and improve the situation,” said Wilkens of South Deep, an operation which runs to 2.9km underground. “It’s a great opportunity on the upside and there’s great value potential if we get South Deeps to operate better.”

But analysts were unconvinced. “They’re going to sell it,” said Steve Shepherd, an analyst at JP Morgan.

If Barrick successfully buys Placer Dome, it will increase its costs to $246/oz from its current $225/oz. By releasing its South Deep stake, which is the highest cost producer in South Africa, Barrick returns to its pre-takeover cost base.
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“At the moment I would be extremely cautious in taking anything Barrick says as binding,” said John Clemmow, an analyst at Investec Securities in London. “I would suspect, given Barrick’s reluctance in the past to be involved in deep level mining, particularly in South Africa, that if the price was right they'd sell,” he said.

“South Deep has been put on the block and this is an ideal opportunity for Gold Fields,” said Dennis Tucker, a corporate banker for Investec who helped construct Harmony Gold’s bid for Gold Fields, a hostile takeover begun just over 12 months ago.

While it doesn’t make sense to pay a 27% premium for Placer Dome only to sell a large slug of resources, it’s possible it could conclude a joint venture with Gold Fields or AngloGold such that the Canadian firm derived a royalty without the South African liability.

There was also the question of whether Barrick’s move for Placer Dome would trigger a response from AngloGold Ashanti.

Steve Lenahan, spokesman for AngloGold Ashanti declined to comment. “We are not saying anything and this shouldn’t be construed as meaning anything either way,” he said.

Last week, AngloGold Ashanti was perceived to have won greater licence to grow its business following an announcement by Anglo American, which owns 51% of the gold unit, that it would accede to being diluted down.

In the eyes of some analysts, this raised the possibility that AngloGold Ashanti might conduct its own merger and acquisition activity with greater momentum, a development that instantly connected it with a bid for Placer Dome, or Barrick Gold.

Now, however, AngloGold Ashanti’s potential targets are involved in mating dance of their own, but the likelihood is that AngloGold Ashanti would be unable to compete with Barrick.

“AngloGold's paper is more lowly rated than those of its rivals, so it would be more dilutive to AngloGold to do it [a rival bid to Barrick],” said Clemmow. “Most of the shareholders of Placer are based in North America as are those of Barrick. AngloGold has an ADR over there, but North American institutional shareholders would have to be convinced to take AngloGold's paper,” he said.

“AngloGold would be unlikely to compete with Barrick. But it could create a competitive situation between Gold Fields and AngloGold for South Deep,” said Shepherd. “As for Barrick, it is likely to become the darling of the world’s gold industry again,” he said.

The proposed takeover could hasten acquisitions of other similar sized gold mining companies such as Australian firm, Newcrest.

Bernard Swanepoel, Harmony Gold CEO, withdrew his company’s name from a competing bid for Placer Dome, but said Barrick’s bid was part of wider trend in consolidation. Speaking on SAfm, a week nightly business radio programme, Swanepoel said reserves depletion across the world would lead to similar efforts at “gobbling each

@ Aladin,

nun leider bin ich noch in Rangy und ICI investiert, muss sie wohl abschreiben: Man braucht eben eine größere Anzahl von Minen um " Flops " zu verkraften.An Angolgold und Gold Fields werde ich wohl festhalten.

gruss hpoth

Warte noch Hpopth, ich halte die Rangy bis Klarheit ueber den Verbleib von RR Aktien besteht. Die muessen ja irgenwo hingekommen sein und die Fragen stellt man im kommenden Meeting bei AFL.

Ich glaube das ist bald, 15 November

Da ist auch kein Trading mit JCI und Randgold in Johannesburg.

Trading Stop ???

Ich muss eh warten bis die wieder gehandelt wird.

Die sollten gleich die ganze Erbmasse die sie schnappen koennen nehmen vom Kebble Estate, schaetze er hat das Geld mit Diamanten schon ins Ausland geschafft wo sie keiner anfassen kann.

Ciao

XAX

BUSINESS REPORT vom 09.11.05

Barrick bid may transform Western Areas' future
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The $9.2 billion (R62 billion) bid by Canadian gold company Barrick for peer Placer Dome is good news for Western Areas. Western Areas is the locally listed 50 percent shareholder in South Deep, which is one the world's largest unexploited gold ore bodies.

Analysts at JP Morgan and Andisa Securities have said that the historical relationship between Placer and Western Areas has not been the best, and both agree that Barrick as a new partner would be good for Western Areas.

While a new partner might go a long way to improve the relationships at the mine, analysts agree that for the first time since September 2003, management has been able to make a noticeable dent in the costs per kilogram.

If Barrick decides to sell the stake in South Deep, there will be opportunities for local companies. The holder of Placer's stake will have pre-emptive rights on Western Areas' stake, which would be good for Western Areas' share price. The construction of the massive gold mine had been the dream of murdered businessman Brett Kebble.

When Kebble was asked in his last interview if he would have chosen Placer as a business partner again his response was "that is the most vexing question".

Kebble blamed the late commissioning and the R1 billion that was overspent on South Deep as part of the reason his business empire had started to disintegrate, leading to his multiple resignations from the companies he ran. However, there are still deep rifts that Western Areas will need to cross before it will be a sought-after share.

One of these is the restructuring of its hedge book, which is about R1.6 billion in the red. The only people making any money out of Western Areas at the moment are its hedge book underwriters American International Group commonly known as AIG, and Investec.

While Kebble has been criticised for the gold he sold forward at a fixed price in the now famously toxic Western Areas hedge book, David Davis, an analyst with Andisa, says the hedge book looked good at the time and paid for a large part of the construction of the mine.

The restructuring of the hedge book will have to be renegotiated with the banks and will come at a price. To show how this hedge is hurting the company you only need to look at the September quarter results, which show that while the spot gold price was R92 229/kg, Western Areas was only getting R74 352/kg.

Added to this, its rights issue, which is expected to raise R640 million, will not really be enough money to pay back the R370 million it owes JCI and fund its near-term capital expenditure requirements.

JP Morgan has estimated that Western Areas will need to spend as much as R950 million over the next five years, and that money is going to have to come from somewhere. So it may not yet be the time to rush into the shares just yet then - this mine will have a life of a whopping 70 years - and remember that Allan Gray, the wily value-hunting investor, has a large exposure to Western Areas. NS

Analysts at JP Morgan and Andisa Securities have said that the historical relationship between Placer and Western Areas has not been the best, :D, and both agree that Barrick as a new partner would be good for Western Areas.

Sicher, die kennen die Kaffer noch nicht.

Man braucht wieder einen Bloeden zum zahlen.

Barrick soll mal uebernehmen, die koennen dann ihr Geld in die Grube werfen, mir soll es recht sein. Erstmal muss Placer uebernommen werden bevor WAR weiteres Geld sieht.

JP Morgan has estimated that Western Areas will need to spend as much as R950 million over the next five years, and that money is going to have to come from somewhere.

Mfg

XAX