Rohstoffnews

29 Okt 2004 13:17

29.10.2004 13:08:13 Gold steadier in Europe, focus on U.S. data

LONDON, Oct 29 (Reuters) - Gold rose in Europe on Friday, with prices tracking currencies after markets largely shrugged off the effect of China's interest rate rise on the U.S. economic outlook, dealers said.

Spot gold was at $426.20/426.70 per troy ounce by 1048 GMT, up from $424.20/424.70 quoted late in New York on Thursday, when the market tested down towards $420 while base metals slid on demand fears after the China rate news.

Dealers said gold's direction on Friday would be dictated by the euro/dollar's reaction to U.S. data, including gross domestic product (GDP) figures at 1230 GMT, that might offer clues on the pace of economic growth.

A weak figure could give the dollar another push lower, making gold more affordable for non-U.S. investors.

The euro was last at $1.2754.

"Gold has pretty much traded in a $426-427 range this morning and it seems that the market has made a good recovery after the euro weakened on China," one dealer said.

Barclays Capital analyst Kamal Naqvi noted in a daily report that Chinese demand had not been a major factor for gold or silver prices, so there was no direct implication from the interest rate rise.

Although Friday's focus was fixed on U.S. data, analysts said gold's safe haven appeal was highlihgted by uncertainty ahead of the U.S. presidential election next week.

"With no clear leader at the moment market volatility seems to be increasing rapidly with the outcome likely to have quite an impact on near-term price direction," James Moore of TheBullionDesk.com said in a daily report.

"Resistance should be found from $426-30, but gold really needs to close above the $418-20 level in order to prevent further weakness," he added.

Platinum, which had fallen to a three-week low on fears higher Chinese interest rates would slow demand for industrial raw materials, rebounded with the help of a firm Japanese market.

Spot platinum was last at $833.00/838.00 from $828.00/833.00 late in New York on Thursday.

Silver eased slightly to $7.13/7.16 from $7.14/7.17 last quoted in New York.

Palladium was broadly flat at $211.00/217.00 from $211.50/217.50 in the U.S. market.

29 Okt 2004 17:31

29.10.2004 16:55:15 Gold in Lauerstellung unter 425 Dollar

London, 29. Okt (Reuters) - Gold hat am Freitag nahezu zu unverändert tendiert. Die Märkte haben die gestrige Zinserhöhung der chinesischen Zentralbank, die Gold gestern unter Druck gesetzt hatte, weitestgehend verdaut, sagten Händler. Damit sollte Gold an sich in den Korridor zwischen 426 und 427 Dollar aufsteigen, doch scheine ein weiter sinkenden Ölpreis die Nachfrage zu dämpfen.

Zum europäischen Handelsschluss notierte Gold bei 424,75/5,50 nach 424,25/5,00 Dollar am Vorabend. In London wurde das gelbe Metall am Nachmittag mit 425,55 Dollar gefixt nach 426,20 Dollar am Vormittag und 424,40 Dollar am Donnerstagnachmittag.

Zum Wochenbeginn hatte Gold noch ein Sechsmonatshoch bei 430,20 Dollar je Feinunze erreicht.

Der am Nachmittag publizierte Index des US-Verbrauchervertrauens für Oktober, der weniger stark gesunken sei als im Vorfeld angenommen, habe keine nennenswerte Auswirkung auf den Goldpreis gehabt, sagten Händler weiter.

Technische Analysten sehen bei 426 bis 430 Widerstandslinien für einen Goldanstieg, während Verkäufe auf breiter Front erst unter der Zone von 418 bis 420 Dollar einsetzen sollten.

Eine Schweizer Grossbank gab den Gold-Kilopreis mit 16.318/16.568 (Vorabend 16.252/16.502) sfr an.

pma/ajs

29 Okt 2004 17:33

29.10.2004 17:05:18 UPDATE 1-Europe gold in ranges, wary ahead of US poll

(Updates to afternoon)

LONDON, Oct 29 (Reuters) - Gold traded in tight ranges on Friday in Europe, unmoved by the dollar's broad fall against the euro after data showing that the U.S. economy grew at a slower rate than expected in the third quarter.

Dealers said investors were wary of making big changes to positions ahead of of next week's U.S. election and after the market had shrugged off the effect of China's interest rate rise on the U.S. economic outlook.

Spot gold was at $424.95/425.70 per troy ounce by 1444 GMT, up slightly from $424.20/424.70 quoted late in New York on Thursday, when the market tested down towards $420 while base metals slid on demand fears after the China rate news.

"I think that people are very wary given that the market has been whipped around. Clearly they are watching currencies and the added complication of trying to work out implications for gold on the outcome of the election," Barclays Capital analyst Kamal Naqvi said.

The latest Reuters/Zogby opinion poll has President George W. Bush and challenger Senator John Kerry in a dead heat.

The dollar extended losses on Friday after the U.S. government said the economy advanced at a slower-than-expected 3.7 percent rate in the third quarter.

The euro was last at $1.2713. A softer dollar makes dollar-priced gold more attractive for non-U.S. investors.

JP Morgan said in a daily report that the gold market's rejection of a move to January's 15-year peak at $430.50 looked corrective and so further gains were likely.

"We can see the market extend to new highs in the weeks ahead," it said.

"We are looking to build a long position for such a break higher, with little in the way of important resistance till $464 and then $500."

Platinum, which had fallen to a three-week low on fears higher Chinese interest rates would slow demand for industrial raw materials, rebounded with the help of a firm Japanese market.

Spot platinum was last at $832.00/837.00 from $828.00/833.00 late in New York on Thursday.

Silver rose slightly to $7.15/7.18 from $7.14/7.17 last quoted in New York.

Palladium was broadly flat at $211.00/216.00 from $211.50/217.50 in the U.S. market.

29 Okt 2004 20:45

29.10.2004 Commodities News Summary

TOP NEWS
> UPDATE 1-LME copper up on dollar, receding demand [nL29395773]

LONDON - London Metal Exchange (LME) copper rose more than three percent to touch $2,840 a tonne on Friday on dollar weakness and reduced fears over Chinese demand, analysts said.

Early short covering in copper drove prices towards $2,820 a tonne, and buy stops were hit soon after weaker-than-expected U.S. GDP data were released at 1230 GMT, sending prices even higher.

- - - -

> UPDATE 1-Europe gold in ranges, wary ahead of US p [nL29263680]

LONDON - Gold traded in tight ranges on Friday in Europe, unmoved by the dollar's broad fall against the euro after data showing that the U.S. economy grew at a slower rate than expected in the third quarter.

Dealers said investors were wary of making big changes to positions ahead of of next week's U.S. election and after the market had shrugged off the effect of China's interest rate rise on the U.S. economic outlook.

- - - -

> CBOT wheat drops on speculative profit-taking [nN29550399]

CHICAGO - Wheat futures at the Chicago Board of Trade dropped early on Friday on speculative profit-taking, traders said.

Pit sources said commodity funds who had been buying the market earlier this week began selling wheat futures. R.J. O'Brien sold 400 December, Tenco Inc. sold 500 December and FIMAT Futures was selling December. At 10:17 a.m. CDT (1517 GMT), CBOT wheat was down 4 to 5-1/4 cents per bushel, with December down 4-3/4 at $3.17-1/2 per bushel.

- - - -

GRAINS/OILSEEDS/LIVESTOCK
> New EU grain mountain looms after big harvests [nL28713408]

PARIS - The European Union's grain mountain is set to swell again this season as low prices and ample supplies will force farmers to sell millions of tonnes into public storage from next week, analysts said on Friday.

The EU's grain intervention stores open their doors from November 1 to May 31 and officials are bracing themselves for hefty initial sales from farmers, struggling with big harvests at home and tough competition for markets abroad.

- - - -

> Brazil extends credit terms for soybean producers [nN29547965]

SAO PAULO, Brazil - Brazil's National Monetary Council reinstated late Thursday a credit mechanism for soybean producers that will help them sell their crops by extending the repayment terms of government backed financing.

The council, an organ of the central bank, said in a monthly meeting that soybean producers can repay their commodity backed federal loans in six monthly installments beginning 60 days after the harvest of their soy crop.

- - - -

> GMO cotton contaminates much of Brazil seed stocks [nN29301016]

SAO PAULO, Brazil - Contraband genetically modified cotton has tainted Brazil's conventional crop and now there are insufficient stocks of unmodified seeds, the Brazilian Association of Seed Producers said.

The association, known as Abrasem, is in discussions with the government to try to set a level of so-called GMO contamination under which cotton seed lots can still be classified as conventional.

- - - -

METALS > Russia RUSAL aluminium cuts raw material dependenc [nL29327067]

MOSCOW - The world's third largest aluminium firm, Russia's RUSAL, which has set its sights on becoming the top producer of the metal, said it is investing in foreign assets to cut its dependence on raw materials suppliers

On Thursday RUSAL launched a successful bid for a 20 percent stake in Australia's Queensland Alumina Ltd (QAL), sold by Kaiser Aluminium (KLU.DE) as part of a reorganisation aimed to emerge from bankruptcy as an aluminium products maker.

- - - -

> UPDATE 1-Canadian miners plan $1 bln Panama copper [nSP287007]

HAIKOU, China - Canada's Petaquilla Minerals Ltd. and its joint venture partners are aiming to raise around $1 billion to begin mining a large copper deposit in Panama, a senior company official said on Friday.

If realised, the project -- which has been given new life by copper prices that touched near 16-year peaks earlier this month -- would be the world's 14th largest copper mine, Dale McClanaghan, president and CEO of Petaquilla, told Reuters.

- - - -

> AngloGold Ashanti bullish on gold price [nL29112129]

JOHANNESBURG - The world's second biggest gold producer AngloGold Ashanti Ltd (/ANGJ.J) expects gold prices to remain robust on global political tension, high oil prices and the weak dollar, an official said on Friday.

"Overall the surrounding circumstances in global economies and politics that impact on investor sentiment to gold look strongly favourable in almost all respects to the gold prices," Marketing Director Kelvin Williams told a results conference call.

- - - -

> INTERVIEW-S.Africa platinum venture to spend R35 m [nL29575034]

JOHANNESBURG - An exploration joint venture in a platinum-rich area of South Africa plans to spend 35 million rand ($5.71 million) over five years as its seeks deposits worth mining, Canada's Platinum Group Metals Ltd (/PTM.V) said.

The area of the joint venture deal, announced this week, covers 67 square kilometres on the Bushveld complex, the world's biggest source of platinum, PGM President Michael Jones told Reuters.

- - - -

> Rio Tinto says China iron ore demand still strong [nWLB8122]

LONDON - Global diversified miner Rio Tinto (/RIO.L)(/RIO.AX) said on Friday iron ore demand from China remained strong despite government efforts to cool the steel sector.

"The outlook for iron ore is exciting. Market demand is strong despite the government action to reduce investment in the steel sector in China in May. We've seen no change in the level of demand for our products," Finance Director Guy Elliott said during an investor conference.

- - - -

COCOA/COFFEE
> Weather sours Ivory Coast cocoa crop hopes [nL29700988]

GRAND BEREBI, Ivory Coast - A long spell of inclement weather in the southwest of Ivory Coast has dimmed hopes of a repeat of last season's abundant cocoa crop, farmers and pod counters said.

"There was a lack of rain in June and July and when the rain came in August it was much heavier than normal and that is why there is less cocoa available now than at this time last year," said a pod counter in the region working for a British exporter.

- - - -

> Brazil's coffee trees to get more rain next week [nN29411328]

RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil - Brazil's main coffee belt will be dry this weekend, but more beneficial rain for crop flowering should fall at the start of next week, meteorologist Somar said Friday.

In a daily report, it forecast clear skies and warmer temperatures during the next couple of days.

01 Nov 2004 09:16

01.11.2004 08:44:57 Tokyo gold up on safe-haven buys ahead of election

TOKYO, Nov 1 (Reuters) - Tokyo gold futures rose sharply on Monday, supported by safe-haven buying as investors sought hard assets amid uncertainty over the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, traders said.

Portfolio managers showed interest in shifting their funds into precious metals as a series of polls showed a dead heat between U.S. President George W. Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry. The election will be held on Tuesday.

Gold also attracted safe-haven buying after the airing last Friday of a videotape from al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden.

"People still remember the last election when the result failed to come out smoothly and that could happen again this time," said Koji Suzuki, manager at Star Futures Securities.

Suzuki said investors were shifting their portfolio into gold and other precious metals rather than moving heavily into currencies and stock.

A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll on Sunday showed Bush and Kerry locked in a statistical tie.

The survey, which canvassed more than 1,000 likely voters, showed that Bush had 48 percent and Kerry 47 percent, with Bush's lead within the poll's 3.1 percent margin of error.

A Reuters/Zogby poll on Sunday showed that Bush and Kerry were deadlocked at 48 percent.

A slump in the dollar, a solid rise in the spot price and firmness in oil prices provided additional support for gold.

The benchmark October gold contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) closed up 17 yen per gram at a session high of 1,470 yen.

The contract has climbed about 1.8 percent from a one-month low of 1,444 yen hit on Thursday.

Other contracts closed 12 to 18 yen higher.

At 0651 GMT, spot bullion was quoted at $429.25/9.95 an ounce, up from $428.15/8.90 in New York on Friday.

The dollar continued to struggle after Friday's weaker than expected U.S. growth figures.

The initial government estimate of U.S. third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth was 3.7 percent, compared with analysts' expectations of 4.2 percent.

The greenback bounced back slightly against the yen on Monday
from a 6-½ month low of 105.77 yen hit on Friday, but stayed
bearish.

At 0651 GMT, it stood at 106.29/32 yen .

Platinum advanced in line with gold, with solid physical buying from end-users providing solid support.

But the metal lacked strong momentum to rise sharply amid a dearth of market-driving incentives.

"For gold, there are clear buying factors, but for platinum, the market now lacks factors to buy strongly," said a trader at a Japanese trading house.

"Physical buying appears to be emerging when the spot price drops to around $830, but the market lacks the energy to chase it on rallies," the trader said.

TOCOM platinum futures closed up 3 yen per gram at 2,794 yen. Other contracts closed up 3 to 15 yen.

Spot dollar-based platinum stood at $834/$839 compared with Friday's New York close of $832/$837.

Below are closing prices for TOCOM's most active precious metals contracts, with the day's turnover for each metal.

Closing prices are in yen per gram except for silver, which is in yen per 10 grams:

For open interest details please click

Closing price Turnover (lots)
GOLD 1,470 (up 17) 51,238
SILVER 247.7 (up 5.8) 3,930
PLATINUM 2,794 (up 3) 36,685
PALLADIUM 736 (unchanged) 676

01 Nov 2004 09:18

01.11.2004 07:04:55 Gold rises in early Europe, may crack $432

* Gold was higher in early European trading on Monday at $429.25/$430.00 at 0552 GMT, versus $428.15/$428.90 last quoted in New York on Friday. The metal may crack the upside target of $432, a 16-year high, depending on the euro's gains against the dollar, said dealers.

* The euro dipped to $1.2778 from $1.2790 in late New York trading. But the currency traded as high as $1.2830 in Asia, as uncertainties ahead of Tuesday's U.S. presidential election pressured the dollar.

* Spot silver rose to $7.28/$7.30 an ounce from $7.26/$7.29 last quoted in New York.

* Platinum was unchanged at $832/$837. Sister metal palladium was at $211.50/$216.50 an ounce, versus $210.50/$216.50 in the U.S. market.

01 Nov 2004 16:46

01.11.2004 16:22:51 UPDATE 1-Europe gold confined in ranges, U.S. poll in focus

(Updates to afternoon)

LONDON, Nov 1 (Reuters) - Gold stayed in a tight band in Europe on Monday after the price stopped 50 cents short of January's 15-year peak at $430.50 per ounce in Asian trade.

Dealers were focused on Tuesday's U.S. presidential election, which was encouraging investors to stay relatively light of dollar positions.

A softer dollar makes dollar-denominated bullion more attractive for non-U.S. investors.

Spot gold stood at $429.00/429.80 by 1513 GMT, compared with $428.15/428.90 quoted late on Friday in New York.

After testing higher ground at $430 in Asia, fund buying was spotted during Monday afternoon -- led by U.S. funds just after the COMEX market open -- but the rise fell short of key levels.

"There was good fund buying in early New York trading today that pushed gold up, though there was no real impetus from the currency side. I don't think that there will be much selling ahead of tomorrow's U.S. election," a European trader said.

A packed U.S. data calendar for this week including non-farm payrolls on Friday was expected to keep the dollar and gold fairly volatile traders said.

"The possibility of an indecisive (election) result is likely to keep volatility high. This coming together with the release of a new Osama bin Laden videotape over the weekend might help the gold price to crawl higher," Alexander Zumpfe of Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein said in a daily report.

But analysts also raised warnings about high speculative exposure to gold on the New York COMEX futures market, heightening fears of a brutal sell-off.

"Looking at a graph of speculative open interest over the last few years, large increases in open interest are often sustained for around 4-8 weeks before a correction occurs," John Reade of UBS Investment Bank said in a daily report.

"We have now seen net longs at a high level for four weeks, indicating that a corrective sell-off could occur in the next month or so," he added.

The euro was at $1.2769/72 , versus $1.2790 in late New York trading. The single currency touched a day's high of $1.2830.

Spot silver rose to $7.30/7.33, compared with $7.26/7.29 last quoted in New York on Friday.

Platinum was at $832.00/836.00, compared with $832.00/837.00 in New York. Palladium was at $207.00/211.00, versus $210.50/216.50 previously.

01 Nov 2004 16:50

01.11.2004 16:40:38 NY gold gains early on U.S. election uncertainty

NEW YORK, Nov 1 (Reuters) - COMEX gold futures rose slightly Monday morning in subdued trade before Tuesday's U.S. presidential election, with a reluctance by traders to hold long positions in the dollar propping up the safe haven metal.

By 10:29 a.m. EST, December gold climbed $1.30 to $430.70 an ounce at the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division, within a range of $428.70 to $431.60.

Gold was the hard asset some investors have turned to recently amid volatile financial markets, due to tensions over the outcome of the election, as well as overall dollar weakness and high oil prices, dealers said.

It has held near a pivotal level around $430, as the tight U.S. election was putting investors off long dollar positions and oil stayed robust a few dollars below recent record highs above $55 a barrel.

"All eyes are on the election tomorrow," said a trader at a large bank. "If there is a clear-cut winner, I think gold should come lower."

A Reuters poll on Sunday showed President George W. Bush and his Democrat rival Senator John Kerry tied with 48 percent of the vote on the last day of the campaign.

A soft dollar supports dollar-denominated metals as prices become cheaper for those holding foreign currencies, while strong oil props up gold as a favored hedge against inflation.

Spot gold was worth $429.25/430.00, up from Friday's New York close at $428.15/8.90. Monday's late fix in London was at $428.85.

The dollar firmed a touch against the euro but then barely budged after U.S. personal consumption rose 0.6 percent in September, which was in line with expectations

The euro was at $1.2765 , off from $1.2790 late on Friday and below last Tuesday's eight-month high at $1.2840.

U.S. crude was quoted up 59 cents at $52.35 a barrel.

The growing mass of speculative net long positions in gold and sister-metal silver, and decreased fund buying potential as a result in those markets, raised the odds of a severe technical sell-off, analysts said.

Closely watched Commitments of Traders data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed the net fund long position in COMEX gold futures rose 6,981 contracts to 127,895 lots in the week ending Oct. 26.

"From the (144,253 contract) extreme from last April, we eventually saw a cycle of long liquidation that drove prices as much as $55 lower," said Tim Evans of IFR Markets.

"The market may take a few weeks to confirm a top here, but we think the remaining $5-$10 of upside potential is dwarfed by that downside risk."

Evans traced resistance in COMEX December gold to $432 an ounce, $433.40 and then $436.50, the contract's high dating back to April, with support at Friday's low at $425 and then at weekly lows of $421.70, $416.10 and $410.50.

December silver rose 6.0 cents to $7.365 an ounce, trading from $7.255 to $7.38. Spot silver fetched $7.32/35, above the previous close at $7.26/29. The London fix was at $7.24.

CFTC data showed fund net longs in silver futures edged up 606 to 56,093 contracts as of last Tuesday.

Resistance lurks at $7.53 and then the $7.84-8.07 area, IFR Pegasus' Evans said, with support at $7.06, $6.91 and $6.80.

January platinum gained $3 to $836 an ounce. Spot platinum was at $832.00/836.00.

Thinly traded December palladium eased 20 cents to $212 an ounce. Spot palladium hit $207.00/211.00.

© Reuters 2004

01 Nov 2004 17:12

01.11.2004 17:02:49 Gold tendiert um 430 Dollar-Marke

London, 1. Nov (Reuters) - Gold hat sich am Montag nach Gewinnen zur Markteröffnung wieder auf Sichtweite an sein 16-Jahreshoch herangetastet. Händler sagten, dass die üblicherweise enge Korrelation zwischen Gold- und Dollarkurs von den Unsicherheiten über den Ausgang der US-Präsidentschaftswahlen überlagert worden sei.

Zum europäischen Handelsschluss notierte Gold bei 429,50/430,30 nach 424,75/5,50 Dollar am Freitagabend. In London wurde das gelbe Metall am Nachmittag mit 428,85 Dollar gefixt nach 428,10 Dollar am Vormittag und 425,55 Dollar am Freitagnachmittag. Zu Beginn letzter Woche hatte Gold mit 430,20 Dollar ein Sechsmonateshoch erreicht; das 16-Jahreshoch liegt kaum höher bei 430,50 Dollar.

Vor allem Fonds haben sich nach Händlerangaben am Montag mit dem gelben Metall eingedeckt. Vor der Wahl in den USA sei keine breit angelegte Verkaufswelle mehr zu erwarten. Jedoch werde die Möglichkeit, dass die Wahl ähnlich wie 2000 keine unmittelbaren Sieger hervorbringen könnte, die Volatilität im Goldmarkt hoch halten. Dieser Umstand zusammen mit der jüngsten Videobotschaft Osama bin Ladens könnten Gold noch weiteren Antrieb geben.

Eine Schweizer Grossbank gab den Gold-Kilopreis mit 16.473/16.723 (Vorabend 16.318/16.568) sfr an.

pma/ajs

Das ist ein Wahlkampf,Öl verliert 2 Dollar innerhalb einer halben Stunde,lol!

01 Nov 2004 17:17

01.11.2004 17:10:00 NYMEX oil falls more than $1 on technical selling

NEW YORK, Nov 1 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures fell more than $1 Monday morning amid sharp technical selling.

At 11:12 a.m. EST (1612 GMT), NYMEX December crude futures were down $1.46 at $50.30 a barrel.

© Reuters 2004

Bis 49,40 habens sie's geschaftt,bravo! GWB kann schon den Sekt kaltstellen..............

01 Nov 2004 17:24

01.11.2004 17:22:25 Europe gold ends marginally down, eyeing US poll

* Spot gold eases slightly to end at $427.70/428.50 per troy ounce by 1615 GMT, compared with $428.15/428.90 quoted late on Friday in New York.

* Bullion little changed in Europe after market touched $430 in Asian dealings. Market wary of moving sharply ahead of U.S. presidential election on Tuesday.

* Silver down in line with gold at $7.21/7.24 by 1620 GMT, compared with $7.26/7.29 last quoted in New York on Friday.

* Platinum broadly flat at $832.00/836.00, compared with $832.00/837.00 in New York.

* Palladium falls to $207.00/211.00, from $210.50/216.50 previously.

01 Nov 2004 17:52

01.11.2004 17:49:45 NYMEX crude falls sharply as key $50 level yields

NEW YORK, Nov 1 (Reuters) - NYMEX crude and heating oil futures fell fast and hard Monday morning as traders and players took profits on recent gains before Tuesday's U.S. presidential election.

At 11:40 a.m. EDT (1645 GMT), NYMEX December crude was down $1.81 at $49.95 a barrel after breaching key support at $50 and slipping to a session low of $49.40.

"This selling carries the psychological impact of last week's sell-off. People are taking profits, with funds among them," said Ed Silliere, trader at Energy Merchant.

NYMEX December heating oil fell 6.16 cents to $1.4025 a gallon.

In London, Brent crude was down $2.18 at $46.80 a barrel.

Technical analysts said the market remained vulnerable to profit-taking pressure.

Last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said domestic crude stocks rose a more-than-expected 4 million barrels to 283.4 million barrels. That was the fifth straight week of an inventory increase, coming amid strong crude imports, and caused oil prices to fall almost $5 in two days.

In Nigeria, unions voted to strike from Nov. 16 to protest rising fuel prices. The country produces 2.3 million barrels per day of oil.

China's decision last week to raise interest rates and cool off its economy and U.S. government weekly inventory data showing U.S. crude stocks rose for the fifth week in a row eased some of the concerns over winter fuel supplies.

A Reuters survey released on Monday showed growth in manufacturing slowed from the euro zone to Japan in October.

December gasoline was down 3.95 cents at $1.289 a gallon. Support was seen at $1.285 with resistance at $1.35.

The New York Mercantile Exchange has launched a Brent crude futures trading floor in Dublin from Monday, starting from 1000 GMT.

© Reuters 2004

Man kann natürlich auch so rum argumentieren,lol..........

01 Nov 2004 17:57

01.11.2004 17:51:44 Börsianer - Erwartung von Kerry-Sieg drückt den Ölpreis

London, 01. Nov (Reuters) - Die Ölpreise haben nach wochenlangen Rekordständen am Montag erneut stark nachgelassen. Händler machten dafür die Erwartung eines Sieges des Demokraten John Kerry bei der US-Präsidentenwahl am Dienstag verantwortlich.

Der Preis für ein Barrel (rund 159 Liter) der führenden Nordseesorte Brent zur Lieferung im Dezember sank im Nachmittagshandel um 2,48 Dollar auf 46,50 Dollar. Auch US-Leichtöl ließ um 2,01 Dollar auf 49,75 Dollar je Barrel nach. "Die Erwartung ist, dass Kerry gewinnt, was den Ölpreis drückten würde", sagte ein Händler in London. "Der Markt ist sehr, sehr nervös vor der Wahl", sagte ein zweiter Händler zu der Preisentwicklung.

che/sws

01 Nov 2004 18:33

01.11.2004 18:20:17 Commodities News Summary

TOP NEWS
> CBOT wheat falls double-digits on fund selling [nN01566949]

CHICAGO - Broad-based selling by commodity funds drove Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures to double-digit losses early on Monday, traders said.

- - - -

> Harmony urges shareholders to approve Gold Fields [nWEN8721]

NEW YORK - Harmony Gold Mining Co (/HARJ.J) on Monday published an open letter to shareholders urging them to to vote in favor of its proposed merger with Gold Fields (/GFIJ.J) at a special meeting Nov 12.

- - - -

GRAINS/OILSEEDS/LIVESTOCK > UPDATE 1-Canada hog exports to rise after plant st [nN01712598]

WINNIPEG, Manitoba - Workers at Ontario's second-largest hog slaughter plant went on strike on Monday, their union said, meaning the province's marketer needs to find space for 28,000 hogs at plants in Quebec and the United States this week.

- - - -

> Jordan tenders to buy 100,000 T feed barley [nL0150176]

HAMBURG - Jordan's state grains buyer has issued a tender for the purchase of 100,000 tonnes of optional-origin feed barley, traders said on Monday.

- - - -

> UPDATE 1-S.Korea's MFG buys 50,000 tonnes China co [nSEO210541]

SEOUL - Members of South Korea's Major Feedmills Group (MFG) bought a total of 50,000 tonnes of Chinese corn for feed production through private talks in late October, traders said on Monday.

- - - -

> Israeli group tenders to buy up to 25,000 T maize [nL01685982]

HAMBURG - A consortium of Israeli private buyers has issued a tender to purchase between 20,000 to 25,000 tonnes of European-origin maize, European traders said on Monday.

- - - -

> UPDATE 1-Cyprus suffers rare locust invasion [nL01614463]

NICOSIA - Millions of marauding locusts made a rare show in Cyprus on Monday, alarming farmers who rushed for the pesticides to protect their crops.

- - - -

METALS > UPDATE 1-Stillwater Mining swings to profit in thi [nN01651336]

NEW YORK - Stillwater Mining Co. (/SWC.N), the sole U.S. producer of platinum and palladium, on Monday posted a third-quarter profit, reversing a year-earlier loss, on soaring metals prices.

- - - -

> UPDATE 1-Norddeutsche sees copper TC/RCs of $117-$ [nL01652419]

HAMBURG - Norddeutsche Affinerie (NAFG.DE), Europe's largest copper producer, said on Monday that copper treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) of between $117/11.7 cents to $120/12 cents have been reached in the spot market.

- - - -

> Norilsk opens nickel mine in Russian north [nL25506685]

ZAPOLYARNY, Russia - The world's top nickel producer, Norilsk Nickel (/GMKN.RTS), opened a new nickel mine on Monday in Russia's north in a move aimed to compensate for an ore output fall at its main mine there.

- - - -

> INTERVIEW-Van Dieman Mines sees quick tin start-up [nL29392537]

LONDON - Van Dieman Mines Plc, which will list on London's Alternative Investment Market (AIM) later this month, expects to be producing tin and sapphires from its Tasmanian operations within 12 months.

- - - -

> ANALYSIS-China aluminium export curbs hit small sm [nHKG130513]

HONG KONG - China's latest push to curb exports from its power-hungry aluminium sector will force many small smelters to sell up or close next year, but the country is still likely to produce up to 10 percent more metal in 2005.

- - - -

> UPDATE 1-Russia to approve Alcoa aluminium plant d [nL01697019]

MOSCOW - Russia will approve Alcoa's (/AA.N) takeover of the country's two biggest aluminium processing plants from RUSAL, but will continue to monitor the U.S. giant's dealings with Russian companies, officials said on Monday.

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COCOA/COFFEE > UPDATE 1-Few signs of Ivory Coast cocoa strike so [nL01398504]

ABIDJAN - Cocoa exporters in Ivory Coast were open for business on Monday as striking farmers seemed reluctant to restore road blocks or go to the ports on the morning of a public holiday in the world's top cocoa grower.

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01 Nov 2004 21:23

01.11.2004 21:07:17 NY gold closes lower on oil's fall before election

NEW YORK, Nov 1 (Reuters) - COMEX gold futures settled lower on Monday, pressured by a firmer dollar and a drop in oil prices, though the safe haven metal stayed propped up by uncertainty over the neck-and-neck U.S. presidential contest.

December gold fell $1.20 to $428.20 an ounce at the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division, after trading in a range from $431.60 to $427. Estimated volume was 51,000 contracts.

"We had fairly light trade all day today. People have gotten themselves where they want to be in front of the election and are now going to just wait it out. I expect an even quieter day tomorrow," said Paul McLeod, a precious metals vice president at Commerzbank Securities.

Gold lost some of its safe haven appeal, backtracking from the $430 level, as the ailing dollar inched up against the euro while crude oil fell sharply.

Oil fell below $50 a barrel on speculation that an election win for Senator John Kerry could ease the geopolitical friction that helped fuel this year's record breaking rally.

A Reuters poll on Sunday showed President George W. Bush and his Democrat rival Senator John Kerry tied with 48 percent of the vote.

A firm dollar hurts demand for dollar-denominated gold because it gets pricier for those holding foreign currencies. Lower oil cuts interest in gold as a hedge against inflation.

McLeod said he expected gold on Tuesday to keep to a range from about $425-to-$430 in more action muted by the election.

"The long-term trend is still up, but I think in the short-term there is a chance for a bit of a correction before we push onward again," he said.

"The vulnerability is more to the downside but I don't think we'll break any of our long-term trends, and we continue to look for price improvement through the rest of this quarter and into next year."

Technically, Tim Evans of IFR Markets pegged resistance in December gold at $432 an ounce, $433.40 and then $436.50, the contract's high dating back to April, with support at Friday's low at $425 and then at weekly lows of $421.70, $416.10 and $410.50.

Spot gold fetched $426.75/7.50, below Friday's New York close at $428.15/8.90. Monday's late London fix was at $428.85.

By midafternoon, the euro slid to $1.2745 , down from $1.2790 late on Friday and well off last Tuesday's eight-month high at $1.2840.

U.S. crude sank $1.84, or 3.6 percent, to $49.92 a barrel.

COMEX December silver rose 2.5 cents to $7.33 an ounce. Spot silver priced at $7.32/35, above the previous close at $7.26/29. London's fix was at $7.24.

Evans saw resistance lurking at $7.53 and then the $7.84-8.07 area, with support at $7.06, $6.91 and $6.80.

January platinum lost 60 cents to finish at $832.40 an ounce. Spot platinum was at $832.00/836.00.

Thinly traded December palladium eased $1.45 to $210.75 an ounce. Spot palladium hit $207.00/211.00.

© Reuters 2004

02 Nov 2004 10:04

02.11.2004 09:26:30 Tokyo gold weighed down by oil, platinum weak

TOKYO, Nov 2 (Reuters) - Tokyo gold futures slipped on Tuesday after falls in oil prices induced heavy liquidation as inflation fears faded.

The fall in benchmark U.S. light crude oil futures below $50 a barrel dealt a psychological blow to yen-based gold futures on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) and investors quickly unwound long positions.

The dollar's slight recovery and an easier spot bullion price added to the bearish mood in TOCOM gold, which then spread to other precious metals and pushed platinum down to its lowest level since late July.

"The falls in crude oil have had a big psychological impact on gold as the rise in oil had basically started the uptrend," said Tatsuo Kageyama, an analyst at Kanetsu Asset Management.

"Gold is becoming less sensitive to the bearish dollar as the market appeared to have factored this in already."

Traders said investors and fund managers had piled up massive positions in gold and were looking for a reason to unwind them ahead of the results of the U.S. presidential election.

A series of polls showed that the presidential race between incumbent George W. Bush and Democratic Senator John Kerry was extraordinarily close.

The benchmark October gold contract closed down 11 yen per gram at 1,459 yen. Other contracts finished 7 to 13 yen lower.

At 0731 GMT, spot gold was quoted at $425.00/5.75 an ounce from $426.75/7.50 last quoted in New York. It had hit a one-week high of $430.15 on Monday.

The key crude oil contract fell below $50 a barrel on rising U.S. oil inventories and recovering U.S. Gulf output.

TOCOM platinum fell to a three-month low.

"Platinum has been losing attraction due to views that demand for industrial use would fall in the future," said a senior trader at a Japanese trading house.

"Physical demand was expected to emerge around current levels, but apparently we haven't seen much buying."

Traders said most end-users were expected to refrain from buying until the spot price dropped below $800 per ounce.

Spot dollar-based platinum stood at $824/$829 on Tuesday compared with $832/$836 in New York on Monday.

TOCOM platinum futures closed down 38 yen per gram at 2,756 yen. Other contracts closed 20 to 50 yen lower.

"The trend in the global economy looks strong, but recently we've seen some signals indicating that the economy might not be as strong as earlier expected," the senior trader said.

The initial U.S. government estimate of U.S. third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth was an annualised 3.7 percent, compared with analysts' expectations of 4.2 percent.

Below are closing prices for TOCOM's most active precious metals contracts, with the day's turnover for each metal.

Closing prices are in yen per gram except for silver, which is in yen per 10 grams:

For open interest details please click

Closing price Turnover (lots)
GOLD 1,459 (down 11) 80,883
SILVER 246.3 (down 1.4) 2,810
PLATINUM 2,756 (down 38) 83,893
PALLADIUM 731 (down 5) 498

02 Nov 2004 13:50

02.11.2004 13:19:51 Silver fixes down, Europe gold range-bound

* Silver fixes lower at 719.50 cents compared with previous fix at 724.00 cents. Spot market dips to $7.18/7.20 by 1206 GMT from $7.32/7.35 late in New York on Monday.

* Silver forward rates on Reuters page indicated at 1.918, 1.870, 1.810 and 1.628 for one, three, six and 12 months respectively.

* Spot gold dips to $425.25/426.00 per troy ounce by 1206 GMT, compared with $426.75/427.50 quoted late in New York on Monday.

* Bullion still trading in tight ranges, with activity seen stalled ahead of U.S. presidential election. Dealers say uncertainty may prop up bullion as a safe haven. Clear Bush win seen as short-term dollar bullish and so gold bearish, with reverse seen for Kerry victory.

* Platinum drops to $826.00/830.00, from $832.00/836.00 last quoted in New York.

Palladium at $209.00/213.00 from $207.00/211.00 previously.

Die Leasing-Sätze schrauben sich weiter nach oben,das bedeutet weitere Turbulenzen....

HINTERGRUND: US-Wahl entscheidet auch über neuen Höhenflug beim Goldpreis

FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX) - Das bange Warten an den Goldmärkten kurz vor der Wahlentscheidung in den USA gilt nach Einschätzung von Experten nicht in erster Linie der Frage, ob Amtsinhaber George W. Bush oder der Herausforderer John Kerry das Rennen machen wird. "Die enorme Spannung" gelte vielmehr einer möglichen Wiederholung der Patt-Situation von vor vier Jahren und einem neuen Höhenflug beim Goldpreis, sagte Rohstoffexperte Christoph Eibl von Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein.
Eine neuerliche Hängepartie bis zur Entscheidung über den künftigen US-Präsidenten sei "extrem schlecht" für den US-Dollar, sagte Eibl. Die Dollarschwäche ist nach Einschätzung von Experten der "Treibstoff für eine Goldrallye". Erst am 25. Oktober sorgte die Kursschwäche der US-Währung beim Goldpreis für ein Rekordhoch bei 429 Dollar. Am Tag der Wahlentscheidung notierte der Preis für eine Unze in London bei 425,20 Dollar.
DER DOLLAR IST DER SCHLÜSSEL FÜR DEN GOLDPREIS
"Der Dollar ist der Schlüssel für den Goldpreis. Für die weitere Entwicklung hängt alles von der US-Währung ab". sagte Rohstoffexperte Wolfgang Wilke von der Dresdner Bank. An den Rohstoffmärkten ist der Dollar die gängige Währung für den Handel mit dem Edelmetall. Sollte nach der Wahlnacht mit einem weiter fallenden Dollar EURUS.FX1 beim Goldpreis die Marke von 430 Dollar nach oben durchbrochen werden, könnte die Feinunze nach Einschätzung von Wilke bis zum Jahresende auf 450 Dollar klettern.
Ein Wahlsieg des Herausforderers Kerry würde allerdings nach Einschätzung des Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein Experten einen fallenden Goldpreis zur Folge haben. "Dann kann der Preis für die Feinunze durchaus um zehn Dollar sinken", sagte Eibl. Bei einem Wahlsieg des Amtsinhabers Bush würde es dagegen nicht nur politisch wenig Veränderungen geben. "Dann dürfte sich auch der Goldpreis erst einmal seitwärts bewegen".
SORGE VOR DEM US-HAUSHALTSDEFIZIT
Während der Amtszeit von George W. Bush hatte der Goldpreis allerdings eine eindrucksvolle Kursentwicklung hingelegt. Im April 2001 notierte die Feinunze noch bei 257 Dollar. Das aufgeblähte Haushaltsdefizit schürte nach Einschätzung von Experten die Inflationsgefahr in den Vereinigten Staaten. Vor allem Großinvestoren hätten in den vergangenen Jahren zunehmend in Gold investiert.
Außerdem verfolgen die Anleger akribisch jede Äußerung von Vertretern der asiatischen Notenbanken. Alleine in Japan taxieren Experten die Währungsreserven des Landes auf 800 Milliarden Dollar. Im Gegensatz zu europäischen Notenbanken verfügen die asiatischen Zentralbanken nur über sehr geringe Goldreserven.
Rohstoffexperte Carsten Roemheld von Adig Investmentfonds rechnet bei den asiatischen Notenbanken fest mit einem Umschichten von Dollarreserven in Goldbestände. Zusammen mit der Sorge der Anleger über eine weitere Abschwächung der amerikanischen Wirtschaft sorge das "für eine mittelfristig bessere Tendenz beim Goldpreis". Bis zum Jahresende erwartet auch Roemheld einen Preis je Feinunze bei 450 Dollar./jkr/js/hi
--- von Jürgen Krämer, dpa-AFX ---

02 Nov 2004 17:26

02.11.2004 17:25:27 Europe gold ends down in thin trade, focus on US poll

* Bullion drops in thin trade with many investors sidelined as U.S. presidential polling day gets under way. Dealers say uncertainty may prop up bullion as a safe haven. Clear, swift result seen as short-term dollar bullish and so gold bearish.

* Spot gold slides late to end at $421.05/421.80 per troy ounce by 1615 GMT, compared with $426.75/427.50 quoted late in New York on Monday.

* Silver down in line with gold to $7.04/7.07 by 1620 GMT from $7.32/7.35 late in New York on Monday.

* Platinum drops to $824.00/828.00, from $832.00/836.00 last quoted in New York.

Palladium at $208.00/212.00 from $207.00/211.00 previously.

02 Nov 2004 17:27

02.11.2004 16:42:47 NY gold retreats early as dollar gains ground

NEW YORK, Nov 2 (Reuters) - Gold futures fell in light trade on Tuesday morning, as dealers tracked a firm dollar while Americans turned out in large numbers to vote as the tight presidential election drew to a close.

December gold at the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division reached $423.70 an ounce by 10:40 a.m. EST (1540 GMT), off $4.50 on the day, trading between $428.80 and $423.20.

"The market is drifting a little bit here, but I don't think we're going to do much. It's very quiet," said James Quinn, an AG Edwards & Sons commodity commentator, who pegged support at the $423-424 area and resistance up around $430.

"The dollar is a little bit firmer and I think we're going to be dollar-sensitive today," he said.

As the tight presidential race came down to the wire, the final Reuters/Zogby three-day national tracking poll showed President George W. Bush leading his Democrat rival. Sen. John Kerry, by 48-47 percent -- well within the margin of error.

Dealers and analysts have said a clear-cut election result or a Kerry win could give the dollar a boost -- which would likely pressure gold -- while a protracted outcome could drag the currency lower.

The dollar firmed as traders trimmed short positions before the election and crude oil edged lower. The euro slipped below $1.27 .

Oil moved nearer to $50 a barrel, adding to a week-long slide that cut more than $5 off record-high prices, as some traders pocketed profits ahead of the election.

A firm dollar tends to pressure dollar-denominated gold as it gets costlier for traders holding foreign currencies. Lower oil weighs on gold as fewer investors turn to it as a hedge against inflation.

Thebulliondesk.com said in a daily report gold stayed on the defensive as traders paused to see what direction the neck-and-neck U.S. election takes.

"We should see gold in a win/win situation over the uncertainty that may arise," it said. "Gold should retain its uptrend, although a little long liquidation, if there is a clear winner cannot be discounted, creating a temporary setback."

Spot gold changed hands at $423.45/4.20, below Monday's New York close at $426.75/7.50. Tuesday's afternoon London fix was at $424.20.

December silver sank 17.0 cents to a session low at $7.16 an ounce, off from a high at $7.33 earlier. Spot silver fetched $7.12/15, above the previous close at $7.32/35. London's fix was at $7.195.

January platinum fell $5.40 to $827 an ounce. Spot platinum reached $824.00/828.00.

December palladium rose 50 cents to $211.25 an ounce. Spot palladium traded to $208.00/212.00.

© Reuters 2004

02 Nov 2004 18:52

02.11.2004 18:11:38 Commodities News Summary

TOP NEWS
> COMEX gold falls 2 percent early as dollar climbs [nN02411982]

NEW YORK - Gold futures plunged about 2 percent by midmorning on Tuesday, as traders tracked a firmer dollar while the closely contested U.S. presidential election got underway.

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> Europe gold ends down in thin trade, focus on US p [nL02438822]

* Bullion drops in thin trade with many investors sidelined as U.S. presidential polling day gets under way. Dealers say uncertainty may prop up bullion as a safe haven. Clear, swift result seen as short-term dollar bullish and so gold bearish.

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GRAINS/OILSEEDS/LIVESTOCK
Oil World sees global soyoil output above usage [nL02656641]

HAMBURG - Global 2004/05 soyoil output is likely to rise to 33.29 million tonnes and so exceed estimated season consumption of 32.96 million tonnes, Hamburg-based newsletter Oil World said on Tuesday.

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> Dutch farmers agree on GMO crop separation rules [nL02178925]

AMSTERDAM - The main Dutch farming organisations have agreed on rules on how to separate biotech, organic and traditional crops, which could pave the way to growing GMO crops in the Netherlands, they said on Tuesday.

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> Oil World sees weak soybean prices [nL02579322]

HAMBURG - Global 2004/05 soybean crops are likely to exceed consumption and put downward pressure on prices, Hamburg-based newsletter Oil World said.

- - - -

> Israeli firm tenders to buy feed wheat and barley [nL02152034]

HAMBURG - A private Israeli buyer has issued a tender to purchase 40,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 20,000 tonnes of feed barley, European traders said on Tuesday.

- - - -

> Tunisia seeks to buy at least 50,000 T wheat-offic [nGHA247966]

TUNIS - Tunisia's state-run Office des Cereales said on Tuesday it was tendering to buy at least 50,000 tonnes of soft wheat.

- - - -

> UPDATE 1-Germany offers 561,258 T grain for EU int [nL02555865]

HAMBURG - German farmers offered 561,258 tonnes of grain for European Union intervention subsidies on the first day of the new purchasing season, intervention buying agency BLE said on Tuesday.

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> Iran's SLAL passes in 50,000 T feed barley tender [nL02677843]

HAMBURG - Iran's state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has rejected all offers in a tender for 50,000 tonnes of feed barley and made no purchase, European traders said on Tuesday.

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> UPDATE 1-Manila's 05 rice imports seen lower despi [nMN281116]

MANILA - The Philippines, one of Asia's largest rice buyers, is likely to import less in 2005 despite the possible recurrence of the El Nino weather pattern.

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METALS > Gold mine stocks down on precious metal price slip [nN02731206]

NEW YORK - Stock in gold mining companies fell on Tuesday as the price of the precious metal -- a traditional hedge in times of war and economic uncertainty -- dropped to a two-week low.

- - - -

> Harmony urges Gold Fields CEO to reevaluate bid [nN02731067]

NEW YORK - The chief executive officer of South Africa's Harmony Gold Mining Co. (/HARJ.J) on Tuesday urged the head of takeover target Gold Fields Ltd. (/GFIJ.J) to reevaluate Harmony's unsolicited bid, reiterating that it would find at least $161.7 million (1 billion rand) in savings.

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> LME contract aimed at U.S. carmakers is winner [nL02153559]

LONDON - An aluminium alloy contract aimed at U.S. automakers but traded on the London Metal Exchange (LME) has > proven a big winner and could point the way to more regional offerings, traders say.

- - - -

> LME issues guide to rules on prompt tightness [nL02462992]

LONDON - The London Metal Exchange (LME) said on Tuesday it had sent members a simplified guide to its procedures for dealing with disorder on the market, especially prompt tightness.

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> Spain copper mine eyes 130,000 T concentrate/yr [nL02123132]

MADRID - The new owners of a copper mine in southern Spain estimate they can extract 130,000 tonnes of copper concentrate a year fom the unit, which is set to open soon, the director of the firm said on Tuesday.

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COCOA/COFFEE > UPDATE 1-Ivory Coast exporters closing, strike to [nL02561403]

ABIDJAN - Cocoa exporters in Ivory Coast began closing their doors on Tuesday after union leaders said they should stop working because a farmers strike in the world's top cocoa producer was set to resume.

- - - -

> German 5th factory beet test shows positive trend [nL0238385]

HAMBURG - The fifth test on beet arriving at German sugar refineries this season continued the overall positive trend seen earlier, figures from German industry association WVZ showed on Tuesday.

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> INTERVIEW-India should permit coffee imports to fu [nBM288514]

NEW DELHI - India should permit coffee imports at low tariffs to improve the health of the ailing industry through increased domestic consumption by offering consumers a better brew, a top trade official said on Tuesday.

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