das wird den Silbermarkt bewegen
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http://www.safehaven.com/article/37662/dollar-weakens By: Alasdair Macleod | Fri, May 15, 2015
There has been significant volatility in bond markets this week, with yields along the curve steepening, and the difference between two and ten year Treasury yields increasing from 1.2% to 1.6% since early February. A widening differential (known as a steeper yield curve) is normally associated with bond markets discounting higher rates of inflation, or increased financial uncertainty, or both. So if the yield curve continues to steepen, the dollar is likely to weaken further so long as the Fed is reluctant to raise interest rates. I expect this topic to receive growing attention in the coming months.
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http://www.safehaven.com/artic…/economic-expansion-ahead by: Puru Saxena | Fri, May 15, 2015
Although we do not possess a crystal ball, we are of the view that before the end of this bull-market, the Shanghai Composite will surpass its all-time high recorded in October 2007.
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http://www.safehaven.com/article/37658/bond-bubble-bursting
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http://www.safehaven.com/artic…llish-scenario-for-stocks by: Chris Ciovacco | Thu, May 14, 2015
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http://www.safehaven.com/artic…ity-shakes-bond-investors by: Elliott Wave International | Wed, May 13, 2015
Euro-Bond-Market is in a correctin-phase after an overbought-market-territory
Many bonds that are perceived to be the safest credit risks guarantee investors a loss. To our knowledge this has never occurred on such a widespread basis in the history of finance. Yields on nearly a third of the euro area's $6 trillion of government bonds are below zero, which means that bond buyers are guaranteed to lose money if they buy these bonds and hold them to maturity.
The risk of widespread defaults also lurks in the world's credit markets.
Here's what well-known hedge fund manager Stanley Drunkenmiller recently said:
Back in 2006/2007, 28% of debt being issued was B-rated. Today 71% of the debt that's been issued in the last two years is B-rated. So, not only have we issued a lot more debt, we're doing so with much [lower standards].
All told, the world's credit markets are on very unstable ground. Expect that ground to get even shakier in the months ahead.
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http://www.safehaven.com/artic…o-turn-screws-on-us-shale
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http://www.safehaven.com/artic…o-turn-screws-on-us-shale
The rise in oil prices came despite Saudi Arabia's best efforts at flooding the market. There are several reasons for this. First, demand is starting to kick back in, which is soaking up some of that extra crude flowing around. Refinery throughputs are at three-month high, with 92 percent of refining capacity in use.
A few other contributors to higher oil prices came in the form of a stronger-than-expected economic performance in Europe, as well as monetary stimulus in China. Both of those developments indicate stronger demand for oil in the months ahead. OPEC forecasts demand for 2015 to rise by 1.18 million barrels per day, an upward revision from previous estimates, and a higher rate of growth from last year's 0.96 million-barrel-per-day increase.
Another reason for higher prices is that the U.S. dollar has weakened a bit, and since oil is priced in dollars, a weaker dollar translates into higher prices.
Also, on the supply side, until May U.S. producers managed to steadily increase output, achieving gains in efficiency that kept production flowing even though rigs fell out of service.
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http://www.safehaven.com/artic…cess-trouble-in-bond-land
Our Pivot of April 9th noted that the reversal would be a global event and that the "European Central Bank is full of unsupportable positions". Our April 22 comment was that the loss of liquidity in the US market could be "Tied to an equally significant loss in global [bond] markets".
More specifically, the reversal in spreads that could be accomplished by June could be as "interesting" as the one in 1998 that took down LTCM.
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