Beiträge von keepitshort
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background-information: negativ-real-rates
http://www.mybudget360.com/ine…h-rising-wage-inequality/
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.mybudget360.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/fed-debt-as-a-percent-of-gdp.png]
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der Inflationsindikator bei http://www.stockcharts.com zeigt auch eine positive white candle-stick ratio TIP:IEF
und wenn du den heutigen Marktpuls fühlen willst
http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/futboard/
hier gibt der silber-future und auch der oil-future ein positives Bild
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real-interest-rates
page-27
In GOLD we TRUST 2013 – Extended Version
Negative Real Interest Rates as the Perfect
Backdrop for Goldhttp://www.incrementum.li/wp-c…RUST_2013_Incrementum.pdf
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hier nochmal in deutscher Sprache
Seite-24 negative Realzinsen sind positiv für den Goldpreis
https://produkte.erstegroup.co…ndex.phtml?ID_ENTRY=21714
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Charts:
The bull market is not over! The silver price is in an oversold position, as shown above, which is far worse than in 2008 or in 2001. Such extremes have always been followed by strong movements to the up-side. After 2008, silver rose more than 400% while some gold and silver shares jumped 2,800% (First Majestic Silver).
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Charts: S&P500 in Relation zum HUI
http://www.safehaven.com/artic…pportunity-in-gold-stocks
Using data from the Barron's Gold Mining Index (BGMI) and the HUI Gold Bugs Index (HUI) we put together a chart of all of the major declines in gold stocks. We also annotated the ensuing recoveries.
Niedergang bei gold-stocks. Wir kennzeichneten die darauf folgenden Erhohlungsphasen mit A= 324% , B= 606%, ...
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(..)The two were negatively correlated from 1972 through 1978. The gold stocks turned down in the middle of 1972 while the S&P 500 continued to make new highs for almost six months. While the S&P had its nasty bear market, the gold stocks absolutely exploded by nearly 400%
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http://www.sprottgroup.com/tho…0%9Cwar-on-gold%E2%80%9D/
The next salvo in the war on gold occurs this Monday July 1st when “The All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation” (representing 90% of jewelers in India) declares a ban on its members selling gold bars and coins. It’s almost unbelievable that this retail federation would impose an all-out ban on purchasing gold for investment purposes, but all is fair in love and war. However, Indians aren’t phased and are shrugging off this ban and investing their rupee’s in silver instead.
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http://www.caseyresearch.com/g…inning-indias-war-on-gold
In silver, the Commercial net short position declined by another 9.3 million ounces...and is now down to an unbelievably low 20.5 million
ounces. Reader E.W.F. put yesterday's report in some sort of historical perspective with these comments..."In silver, the Commercial net short position hasn't been this low since February 2, 1993...more than twenty years ago! The silver raptors hold the largest net long position in the history of the data...and the non-commercial net long position hasn't been this low since April 15, 2003...more than ten years ago."+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++http://www.goldseiten.de/artik…tigem-Anlass.html?seite=2
Betrachten Sie mit mir die Netto-Leerverkäufer der Commercials (Gegenspieler der Spekulanten)
im Silber-Future. Wir sehen ein Tief, welches wir nur im Sommer 1997 bislang sahen und
ich bin gespannt auf die Daten, die morgen veröffentlicht werden:[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseiten.de/bilder/upload/gs51ccbcac25eeb.png]
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http://ericsprott.blogspot.de/
Recommended Websites
Blog Archive ( nur mal zum schnellen durchlesen )
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++++++++++++++++++++++++++hier sind auch einige video-clips
http://www.sprott.com/market-insights/eric-sprott/
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history-facts:
http://etfdailynews.com/2013/0…-opportunity-in-silver-2/
The US government in 1950 had 5 billion ounces of silver in its strategic stockpile, now it has ZERO.
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http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-more-case-silver
The last big squeeze that we had in silver was in March and April of 1987. Over that six week period in 1987 the price of silver literally doubled. The 1987 experience illustrates the kind of pain that shorts can suffer, and that just goes to show that you never want to mess with the bull.”
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The Copper King: An Empire Built On Manipulation
Smashing The Shorts
Hamanaka's manipulation was common knowledge among many speculators and hedge funds, and that he was long in both physical holdings and futures in copper. Whenever someone tried to short Hamanaka, however, he kept pouring cash into his positions, outlasting the shorts simply by having deeper pockets. Hamanaka's long cash positions forced anyone shorting copper to deliver the goods or close out their position at a premium.He was helped greatly by the fact that, unlike the U.S., the LME (London Metal Exchange) had no mandatory position reporting and no statistics showing open interest. Basically, traders knew the price was too high, but they had no exact figures on how much Hamanaka controlled and how much money he had in reserve. In the end, most cut their losses and let Hamanaka have his way. (Read more about open interest in Discovering Open Interest - Part 1 and Part 2.)
Mr. Copper's Fall
http://www.investopedia.com/ar…mr-copper-commodities.aspNothing lasts forever, and it was no different for Hamanaka's corner on the copper market. The market conditions changed in 1995, in no small part thanks to the resurgence of mining in China. The price of copper was already significantly higher than it should have been, but an increase in the supply put more pressure on the market for a correction. Sumitomo had made good money on its manipulation, but they were left in a bind because it still was long on copper when it was heading for a big drop.
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http://www.resourceinvestor.co…-market?t=precious-metals
Still, photographic film remains a big consumer in the silver marketplace. The medical sector uses film primarily for x-rays, and it has held up very well. But don't hold your breath hoping for a resurgence in this sector either. As the new technology becomes cheaper, more and more hospitals and other users of x-ray film will convert to the digital world, too.
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In the year 2003 photographic consumption worldwide represented roughly a little over 32% of total end-product fabrication demand in silver. Now it is down to only 9%. Fabrication demand is currently at about 81% of consumption of annual production.Irgenwo gelesen:
Es gibt auch den investment-demand also Silberbarren, Silbermünzen die der silver-investor kauft und dieser Markt ist auch wichtig -
http://seekingalpha.com/articl…a-turnaround?source=yahoo
Based on the: semi-backtracking by the Fed (through Hilsenrath and other Fed members); the reaction in the market; and the statements by a guy who knows bonds better than perhaps anyone (even Bill Gross), I expect the Fed to modify its tapering plan in terms of timing and scope. If the Fed backtracks on its QE tapering comments, I think that you will see a rally in precious metals, with shorts providing a squeeze.
In the same article Gundlach went on to address silver specifically:
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herausfordernde Darstellungen mit geringer Fehlerquote
können zu Verbesserungsvorschlägen führen ( so versuche ich zu arbeiten )ratio TIP:IEF kann man als inflation-indicator nutzen
$WTIC ist Rohölpreis
$silver ist der SilberpreisPPO(1,90,1) ist hier der Abstand vom ratio TIP:IEF zur 90-Tage-Linie in Prozent ausgedrückt
step-by-step:
step-1: ratio Tip:IEF is an inflatin-indicator
step-2: TiP:IEF is on the same level like October-2011 and Jun-2013
step-3: conclusion: The inflatin-situation is October-2011 is like in June-2013
step-4: the oil-price in June-2013 is at 93 Dollar ....
... the oil-price in October-2011 is at 78 Dollar at a lower levelstep-5: the oil-price has a relation to inflation...
.... but the oil-price has a positiv correlation with the chinese manufacture-market ( FXI ) -
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Solar panels are now a major source of silver demand, accounting for 4.5% of total silver purchases in 2012.
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Comex--> physical-gold-delivery
Shanghai-Goldexchange --> physical gold deliveryhttp://www.wallstreet-online.d…skussion-zum-thema-silber
17.06.13 16:20:11 -
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Silver Investment Demand: The Ticking Time Bomb
http://www.silverseek.com/arti…d-ticking-time-bomb-12170
[Blockierte Grafik: http://67.19.64.18/news/2013/6-10sa/image002.gif]
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++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++If you look at the column next to the U.S., you will notice that nearly 75% of its pension fund asset allocations are in equities, bonds and bills.
http://www.silverdoctors.com/t…n-to-own-precious-metals/
[Blockierte Grafik: http://srsroccoreport.com/wp-content/uploads/Pension-Fund-Asset-Allocation.png]
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++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++The economist Irving Fisher somewhat famously and regrettably opined in 1929 (right before the stock market crashed) that a new corporate model and economic era was in play that had led to a “permanent plateau of prosperity.” The rest is history.
http://www.silverdoctors.com/c…ngerous-bubble-territory/
[Blockierte Grafik: http://media.peakprosperity.com/images/Corporate-profits-GDP.jpg]
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http://www.silverdoctors.com/c…ngerous-bubble-territory/
Citizen Add to that the fact that there is an 80% correlation between the rise in the SPX and the Money supply over the last year. No meaurement of the large corporations would support the rise in the S&P and DOW. The Nikkei just crashed yesterday and its entire upward surge was the Yen QE Japan will suffer greatly from this QE exercise and what is really amazing is that some experts realize that it is not enough. Their entire financial system is unsustainable and will crash. Their bond market is in a bad rate bubble. Our could soon follow as the 10 UST just broke 2%. If the Yen and USD note rates continue upwards then the Yen will fail and ours could easilt collapse as a follow on to that event. The PMI in Chine just went below 50 That little engine that could now won’t The top 3 economies with 25-30 trillion in GDP are very wobbly.
We’ll all retire when silver hits $100-200. -
charts, charts,charts !!!
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chinesische Goldnachfrage
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/…onsidering-chinese-demand
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phyische Goldlieferung an der Comex und an der Shanghai-gold-exchange
http://www.goldminerpulse.com/…hangePhysicalDelivery.php
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Leute stehen in einer Warteschlange um physisches Gold zu kaufen
warum kaufen die keine spanischen Staatsanleihen oder italienische Staatsanleihen ???
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/…ple-waiting-line-buy-gold
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What arbitrage could be occurring in COMEX? As with my analysis of GLD, I make no claims to special knowledge. I do not know who is doing what. I have heard no whispers from big traders in London, and have no inside information from the regulators or banks. I don’t talk to large aquatic mammals. I am only doing some basic detective work.
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1371219525.php
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