Beiträge von keepitshort

BAAL
date: 14.Jan08 ,,, time: 00:51

danke für die mathematische Herleitung

im Computerzeitalter suchen wir hiefür die tools im Internet !!!

y07m03d08
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/hathaway030607.html

CPI-inflation-calculator: http://www.shadowstats.com/inflation_calculator
opent-content-for-all-our-readers:

http://www.shadowstats.com/section/commentaries

zur Ergänzung noch die real-rates:

http://www.goldseiten.de/conte…/artikel.php?storyid=6140

und als Ergänzung noch ein Beitrage irgendwo gehört:

Schau dir die Zins- und Inflationskurven von damals an und ziehe deine Schlüsse.

Aber prinzipiell gilt:

Die "nominalen" Zinssätze, die du bei der Bank erhältst, spiegeln nicht das vollständige Bild wider. Die Inflation muss mit einbezogen werden.

Wenn die Preise der Produkte, die man regelmäßig käuft, wie Nahrung, Benzin etc. um 5 % steigen und die Bank 5 % Zinsen gibt, ist das keine reelle Entschädigung.
In diesem Fall würden Wirtschaftswissenschaftler den "realen" Zinssatz - den inflationsbereinigten Zinssatz - tatsächlich "maximal" mit Null beziffern.

1979 lagen die Zinssätze für kurzfristige Anleihen bei 8 %, aber die Inflation lag bei 13 %, also lagen... die "realen" Zinssätze bei minus 5 % pro Jahr. Ist es da ein Wunder, dass die Leute Ihr Geld schnell im Goldmarkt anlegten, als Papiergeld zu halten?

1981 aber hatte der damalige FED-Vorsitzende Paul Volker die Zinsen für die kurzfristige Anleihen bis auf 15 % erhöht und die Inflation damit auf 6 % gedrückt, also lag der Realzinssatz bei fast plus 9 %.
Noch vor 1982 ging der Goldpreis auf unter 400 Dollar zurück. Logisch oder?

Heute (Nov2007)steht der nominale Zinssatz in den USA ca. um die 4 %. Zur gleichen Zeit liegt die Inflation nominal ebenfalls bei ca. 4% … und von amtierenden Fed-Vorsitzende Ben Bernanke weiss man, dass er die Zinsen wahrscheinlich noch 2 bis 3-mal in den nächsten 6 Monaten senken wird (Inflation bleibt bei ca. 4,0% und die Zinsen werden gesenkt somit entstehen negative Realzinsen). Auf Teufel komm raus! Um das angeschlagene System weiter intakt zu halten und die Konjunktur wieder anspringen zu lassen. Das Geldmengenwachstum liegt bereits irgendwo zwischen 12-19%, nach verschiedenen Quellen. Also jenseits von Gut und Böse.

Die "offiziellen" Realzinssätze liegen in USA aktuell also nahe Null … und viele Investitions-Gelder sind bereits vom Bargeld in Gold gewandert und es werden weiter Milliarden aus Dollar rausgehen.
Das diese Massen an Geld nicht nur in Gold und Silber gehen, sondern auch in Euro, SFR, Yen und Yuan, sehen wir ja bereits.

Sobald ein seriöser Notenbanker irgendwann mit der Inflation ernst macht und die Zinsen beherzt erhöht, wird das Gold zusammenbrechen, egal wie hoch es vorher gestanden hat. Aber im Moment sind wir meilenweit davon erntfernt.

__________________
Grüße
Golden Earring

----- Diese Zeilen sind an alle "Verunsicherte" gerichtet, die in den Medien mit ihrer vermeintlichen Informationenfülle, die "aussagefähigen Informationen", vermissen.-----

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/barbera/2006/0808.html

Today's WrapUp by Frank Barbera 08.08.2006
08-Aug-2006

The Fed May Not Be Done

As we see in the chart of Homestake Mining, from a January 2nd, 1973 low of $1.91, HM (Homestake-Mining) advanced to a high on August 19th, 1974 of $11.60, a gain of 507.32% in less than two years!!

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.financialsense.com/Market/barbera/2006/images/0808.h5.gif]

time will tell

April 06, 2007
Gold, Silver, and Stock Bears
by Adam Hamilton

http://www.safehaven.com/article-7311.htm

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/hamilton040607.html

So while the Dow 30 shed 45% in 1973 and 1974, an enormous and devastating loss, did gold plunge in sympathy ??? like it did for a few days five weeks ago in the latest mini-panic??? Heck no! Gold soared in a majestic and powerful bull market and more than tripled while the general stocks swooned. The curious popular belief today that precious metals will suffer during a general-stock bear is a total myth, pure fabrication.

es gibt da irgendwo im Internet einen Inflationsrechner
da kann man dann 50.- US-Dollar von 1980
in Dollars vom Jahr-2008 umrechnen.

aber hier nochmal mal ein bischen inflation-history

gibt ja genügend Beispiele für Inflation und Papiergeld

hier mal ein Bezug zur Kriegsfinanzierung

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Weber/dec052006.html

That meant that after 1810 Gresham's Law had left America's monetary system in a mess. There were no US gold or silver coins and only the Spanish fractional silver coins circulated. This was to prove ruinous in the War of 1812. Not enough silver and no gold circulated, so individual banks printed paper money to finance the war. This caused horrible inflation. Prices soared by an average of 50% during the war. Worse, after August, 1814 banks did not have to pay out gold or silver at all if people holding the paper money came to ask for it. This act exacerbated the inflation, which in turned caused mal-investments (as it always does). And this resulted in America's first Depression, the Panic of 1819. The month of August, 1814 was terrible for America. This was the month where an invading British army entered Washington DC and burned the White House and Congress to the ground.

repetition-drill
silver-history
trading-experience

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/baltin110606.html

When silver passed $50 the COMEX officials first mandated that the margin requirements were raised to 100%, when that did not slow the market to their satisfaction they mandated that the exchange would only accept liquidation orders (selling-orders). This forced the longs to sell as no new long buy orders could be entered. The result of this rule change was that silver plummeted! It went limit down for a number of weeks on end before it again resumed trading in the mid-$30 range. The longs, who earlier had amassed substantial profits, were then faced with staggering losses as they could not exit their trades. They were locked in! Each contract consisted of 5,000 ounces of silver. Thus, when silver fell from over $50 to below $40, the losses amounted to over $50,000 per contract. Numerous individuals went bankrupt overnight. Will it ever happen again? You bet your life it will. It happened in sugar in the 70's, lumber in the 80's and most recently in Natural gas and was in reality the prime cause for Enron going bankrupt. However, when trading futures, recognize that one's losses are not limited to their margin requirements.

vielleicht kannst Du mir hier weiterhelfen

habe EDR.to Endeavour-silver stocks
die laufen wirklich nicht so gut

jetzt wollte ich 50% der EDR.to verkaufen
und dafür 50% in XRC.V Exeter
und 50% in RCT.V Rochester
investieren

bei XRC.V Exeter hat man allerdings das Argentinienrisiko

würdest Du so einen deal machen ???

also bei der EDR.to
sieht die 200-Tage-Linie nicht so schön aus !!!

repetition-drill
silver-history

wer diesen Bericht liest
versteht die nachfolgenden Sätze besser.

http://www.dollardaze.org/blog/?p=56

Silver - Poor Man’s Gold
By Mike Hewitt
Published originally on Dollardaze.org on Nov 12, 2006.

Mine production of new silver rose by only 4 percent from 1990 to 1999, while total fabrication demand increased by 22 percent during the same period. The main question for the silver market was the rate at which above-ground stocks of bullion and coins were being consumed by the widening gap between fabrication demand and conventional supply,

time-will-tell

The Industrial Scrimmage
for Dwindling Supplies
David Zurbuchen
http://www.silverinscripture.com/IndustrialScrimmage.html

As a precursor to this brief article, many of you may already be familiar with the dramatic
rise in palladium prices over a four year period beginning in 1997. By the year 2001, the
metal had risen from just above $100/oz to a high of $1100/oz. This was a result of
industrial users (e.g. Ford Motor Company) panicking about a lack of supply and
consequently building the necessary inventories so that factories would not need to be
shut down. Silver should experience a similar price rise due to future industrial
desperation, only unlike palladium, which has since cooled off, the industrial scrimmage
for silver will be only one of many unique forces putting pressure on the price. This should
then result in significantly higher (relative terms) and much longer sustained gains in silver.

Vorschau ins Jahr-2008

http://www.cartoonstock.com/se…n=And&Artist=Not+Selected

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.cartoonstock.com/lowres/hsc4334l.jpg]

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.cartoonstock.com/lowres/hsc4324l.jpg]

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.cartoonstock.com/lowres/hsc1078l.jpg]

für viele von Euch ist dies reine Wiederholung
von bereits bekannten Fakten

http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/intersection.html

The Silver Intersection
Richard Karn
the Emerging Trends Report
November 3, 2006

There is, however, some controversy regarding just how much of a price increase can be absorbed into manufacturers" cost structure and then just what substitution for silver would result. By way of examples of substitution, which is by no means exhaustive, stainless steel has long replaced sterling and silver-plated flatware, aluminum and rhodium have been used to replace silver in mirrors and other reflective surfaces, and tantalum in surgical plates, pins and sutures.[14] Aluminum has also been used as a substitute in some photovoltaic applications. Copper-phosphorus-antimony alloy has been used as a substitute for silver in brazing.[15] However, many primary applications of silver, such as photography, electroplating, printed circuitry and catalyst use in the plastics and petrochemical industries, simply do not have replacements at this point.

A Little Something Called 'Epithermal Deposition'

http://www.silverinscripture.com/articles.php?id=30

Note: Platinum, Palladium, and Aluminum all have resource bases in excess of 100 years of production, and as such they are not displayed.

If the U.S Geological Data can be trusted, then silver is the rarest of all the metals left in the world, in relative terms, with a maximum of 29 years left of production using current resource numbers. Many argue that a dramatic increase in the price of silver will soon be leveled with the ramping up of production. There are several problems with this argument, especially in light of the above data.

http://www.silverbrothers.com/

http://www.investmentrarities.com/01-04-05.html

WEEKLY COMMENTARY
January 4, 2005

FRIEDMAN’S THEORY
By Theodore Butler

Also in silver we have a unique geological circumstance, known as "epithermal deposition", which holds that most of the silver in the earth’s crust was deposited near the surface. Consequently, there is less silver available the deeper you go. For a mineral (like-silver) mined and exploited for five thousand years,

silver-history

bei silverinscripture.com gibts echt gute Reports

http://www.silverinscripture.com/archives.php#silver

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/zurbuchen112105.html

Speaking of 1980, (the year silver peaked at $150/oz in inflated terms) in that year all the governments of the world could claim a collective silver stockpile of about 2 billion ounces. Today, the total world government supply has shrunk to an estimated 200 million ounces (Silver Survey 2004 pg. 32), an amazing 98% decrease in a period of just 25 years. It appears that the U.S wins the boobie prize in silver liquidation, as it has managed to sell the largest stockpile in the history of the world (6 billion ounces in 1930) in just 72 years. That's correct, the US stockpile ran dry in 2002, after systematically selling its silver into the market for over seven decades. In fact, the US government now has to purchase about 10 million ounces of silver every year in order mint its popular 1 ounce Silver Eagles.

Doctor Dinero's Discussions
email: thedoctordinero@yahoo.com
January 19, 2004
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/dinero011904.html

1oz-Gold = 3500 Dollar

1800 US-Dollar als target-range
reicht mir schon

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/images/dinero011904d.jpg]

@EdelMan
Betrifft: 18.Oct2005 time: 22:12

mW.in Venezuela / "Chavez-Land"

so eine Info ist sehr interessant
vielen Dank !!!

Bei der Durchsicht der guten Anlage - Information fällt besonders auf,
daß die 4.größte Position Bolivar Gold ist,mit beachtlichen 5,94%.
Sie hat ihre Vorkommen mW.in Venezuela / "Chavez-Land"

den Report sollte jeder lesen

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/baltin110606.html

What a rush! I reminisce about buying 100 silver futures contracts when silver was trading at about $5.00 an ounce. Then, just prior to its amazing run the locals briefly sold silver off to below $4.85. They took silver to $0.05 below my stop-loss level and stopped me out, for a $50,000 loss

...

..

Thus, when silver fell from over $50 to below $40, the losses amounted to over $50,000 per contract. Numerous individuals went bankrupt overnight. Will it ever happen again? You bet your life it will. It happened in sugar in the 70's, lumber in the 80's and most recently in Natural gas and was in reality the prime cause for Enron going bankrupt
...
..
.

Consequently, when the U.S. government announced on January 1, 1980 that Americans would once again be allowed to own gold bullion, all the investors that got in below $500 knew that the ball game was all over. On that fateful day, everyone who believed that a great influx of buying would result from the lifting of sanctions, were sadly mistaken.

XETRA-Gold-Handel
das Gleiche wie bei Optionsscheinen

wenn es interessant wird
und die Preise extrem volatil werden

dann können die Emittenten keine Preise mehr ermitteln

und ihr könnt dann eine gewisse Zeit nicht mehr Kaufen oder Verkaufen.

Prinzip:
Ihre gebt mir Euer Geld
und ich mache die Regeln für den Kauf und Verkauf
der Gewinner werde ich dabei sein
Solche Spielchen wird man dem Privatmann gerichtlich verbieten
aber je grösser die Bank um so leichter die gerichtliche Zulassung.

Golden Earring
hat das gut dargestellt mit den negativen Realzinsen im Jahr 1979
und den Bezug zu der Realzinsentwicklung im November-2007

Eldorado
hat noch den link zum Beitrag von Jim Willi reingestellt mit der
Entwicklung der $UST2Y (two year Treasury yield)
und der Fed-funds-rate

und wer sich hierfür interessiert
sollte den link hier noch anklicken
wie sich die Fed-funds-rate entwickelt
in Bezug zu den (two year Treasury yield) $UST2Y

http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=8536

die FED wird weiter die fed-funds-rate senken
-100 Basispoints-Differenz-linke-y-Achse = 1,00 % Zinsdifferenz

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.safehaven.com/images/dorsch/8536_c.png]

eigentlich müsste ich alle meine Silberminen verkaufen

warum ???

http://www.stockcharts.com

Symbol: $WTIC für Rohöl

Chart Attribute:
Type: Performance
Range-time: 3years

Size: landscape

indicators:
MACD
und

indicator
price-performance /// parameter: $silver /// position: behind-price

dann seht ihr schön
wie in letzter Zeit
der prozentuale Anstieg beim Öl
dem prozentualen Ansteig beim Silber entspricht

Fazit: der MACD ist beim Öl im overbought Bereich
also müsste Öl konsolidieren und somit
könnte das Silber-Manipulations-Team bei
Silber ein Blutbad anrichten.

Verkaufen ja oder nein ?

I would say uncharted territory !!!

http://www.safehaven.com/article-8767.htm

No, the situation today is completely different:

* In August 1979, Paul Volcker became the chair of the Federal Reserve and start to fight inflation by radically raising interest rates. Today, Chairman B. Bernanke, in an effort alleviate the pain in the ailing banking system, is aggressively lowering interest rates.
* 28 years ago, the United States was the biggest creditor nation in the world. Now, the opposite is the case - US is the largest debtor. This, along with the Fed policy is causing the dollar to fall to historic lows.
* Gold may appear to be overextended but this is not the case in real terms. In fact, gold should be around $3,000/oz in order to reach its inflation adjusted highs. Only then will there be a real reason to worry about a possible end of the gold bull market.