Beiträge von s3cr3tos

11.03.2014

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Vom 14.02.2014:

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The Rosen Market Timing Letter:

http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-co…-TIMING-LETTER-011014.pdf

Besonders der Langfrist Chart ist interessant:

[Blockierte Grafik: http://abload.de/img/longterm_dow_gold_silfbs2t.png]

Aktuelles von Ron Rosen bei KingWorldNews: http://kingworldnews.com/kingw…_Prediction_For_2014.html

Rosen: “2014 will be the year of the upside explosion in gold and silver. 2014 will also be the year the S&P tops and the stock markets endure a historic plunge...."
“As I have previously mentioned to you, the S&P will lose a stunning 2/3 of its value. On the flip side, gold has bottomed and it will take off to the upside in a huge explosion. Everything I’ve learned over 60 years of following the markets tells me this is exactly where we are. "
"So the peak is in or will be in within a matter of days or weeks for the Dow, and the corrective bottom for gold has been completed. Gold will not break the recent lows because nobody can turn back the tide, not even the Federal Reserve. The chart below shows gold’s advance since the start of this century. Notice the powerful ‘French Curve.’ This is why the bottom for gold is already cemented in place (see chart below)."

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John Butler Video Interview (Matterhorn Asset Management)

Part 1:
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Part 2:
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Actuelles Interview mit Jim Sinclair:

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Hier sagt Jim Sinclair, was er für die nächsten Jahre erwartet:

My Dear Friends,

The entire financial and social episode from 2008 to 2020:

The Great Flushing 2008 - took place with the forced bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers that guaranteed an eventual and total meltdown of the legacy OTC derivative fraud (which is still to come) as the means of the following;

The Great Leveling 2014-2016 - is coming which will eliminate the Middle Class. Main Street is already eliminated.

The Great Reset 2016-2020 - will come as a product of the BRICS which the West will first oppose then adopt as their own idea.

http://www.jsmineset.com/2013/…e-unfolds-from-2008-2020/

Schaut mal was Richard Russell bei Kingworldnews heute sagt:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingw…Change_In_The_Future.html

Richard Russell: “This site will be about the Dow formation that we see below. This formation is known as the “megaphone formation” or the “broadening formation.”

[Blockierte Grafik: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/10/1_Richard_Russell_-_Expect_Massive,_Radical_Change_In_The_Future_files/KWN%20Russell%209%3A30%3A13.jpg] 

The broadening formation is indicative of a market in turmoil, with sentiment swinging wildly from one way to the other. Incredibly, the broadening formation has appeared in every major bear market since 1929. It appeared prior to WWII in 1929. It appeared in 1957 and 1965-66. We saw a broadening top in 1987 and again in 1998-2000. The most recent broadening formation we saw was in 2004 to 2008.

I have long speculated about the sentiment basis of broadening formations. Each broadening formation is made up of three rising waves and two corrective waves. As far as sentiment is concerned, I believe broadening formations are the result of wildly swinging reversals in sentiment from bearish to bullish -- and then bearish, and finally a huge swing back to extreme bullishness. This final wave of optimism is the market's kiss of death, since this final rising wave takes stocks far above known values.

The current broadening formation is unique in that it is, by far, the largest broadening formation that I have ever seen. Note that wave D to E has not yet touched the upper trendline. Frankly, I don't know whether it is necessary for the Dow to make contact with the upper trendline in order to complete the formation.

If the Dow is to touch the upper trendline of the formation, the Dow will have to advance to at least 16,000, which would be an all-time high. An interesting thesis here is that earnings alone are not the reason for the Dow advancing. What is driving this market higher is an increase in price/earnings. In other words, earnings have not been rising, but what has been boosting the market is investors’ sentiment. Investors have been increasingly bullish on the market, and therefore, they have been willing to pay more and more for the same amount of earnings.

I've written about this before. The major swings in stock prices are often a result of drastic changes in the price/earnings ratio. Investors become too bullish or too bearish about stocks. When they become too bullish, this thrusts stocks into the dangerously overvalued zone. The opposite is true when investors become too bearish. Charles Dow wrote that unless there was some special reason, stocks were overvalued when dividends sank below 3.5%.

Back to the broadening formation: In past cases, the bear market associated with a broadening formation carried to the lower trendline of the formation. So let's consider that the current broadening formation follows the typical pattern. In that case, we might expect the Dow to top out anywhere from its current position to a level around 16,000 or even a bit higher.

Assuming that a major bear market will begin from wherever the Dow tops out, we can assume that the Dow will decline to at least the right end of the lower trendline of the broadening formation. If that holds true, then we can expect the bear market will take the Dow down to at least 5,000. That would represent a horrendous loss, although not nearly as bad as the 1929 to 1932 bear market.

I've searched my mind to try to understand what a bear market to Dow 5,000 might mean. In the first place, I think such a bear market could involve a new monetary system. I also think a huge bear market would see the balance of international power shift from the US to China. Finally, the giant megaphone formation that I show could be an advance message to the effect that we must all be ready for massive and radical change.

Question -- How do you think we should prepare for these massive changes that you foresee? I'm not really sure, but my first response is that we must abolish greed and become spiritual. Currently, it seems to me that the emphasis is on profit, growth at any price, power, greed and wealth.”

Wird es so kommen? Wir werden es sehen

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Money as Debt - Geld aus Schulden

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Hallo zusammen,

schaut mal was Ron Rosen bei KingWorldNews prognostiziert:

It will be 20 years, from 1994 to 2014, before the S&P 500 and the DJIA return to their long term trend line. This will represent a 66% decline from the all-time high for both averages. Thank you Chairman Greenspan:

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Dieser 66% Verlust hätte auf den PE Ratio des S&P die Auswirkung, dass dieser von aktuell 23 auf seinen langfristigen Mittelwert von ca. 7 bis 8 fällt (= 23 * (1-66%)). Langfristige Entwicklung des PE Ratio des S&P siehst du in folgendem Chart (oder hier immer aktuell: http://www.multpl.com/

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/images/dr20100408a.jpg] 
Dieser 66% Verlust hätte auf die Dividendenrendite des S&P die Auswirkung, dass diese von aktuell 2% auf 6% steigt (= 2% / (1-66%)). Das liegt in dem Berecih, wo historisch gesehen Aktien wieder günstig Bewertet sind:

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Wenn der Preis von Gold unverändert bliebe, hätte dieser 66% Kursverlust die Auswirkung, dass der Dow Gold Ratio (angenommen, der Dow fällt um einen ähnlichen Prozentsatz) von aktuell ca. 8 auf ca. 3 fällt. Wenn sich Gold verdoppelt (Gold 3.500 Dollar) fiele es auf 2, wenn sich Gold verdreifacht (Gold 5.000) fiele es auf 1. In der Historie ist dieses Ratio immer in die Nähe dieses Wertes gefallen:

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.denaria.es/wp-conte…2/03/dowgoldratio2006.jpg] 
Das Gold Silver Ratio ist im Mittel in der Vergangenheit immer so auf 16-20 gelegen. Das hiesse der Silverpreis läge um ein 6 bis 9 faches höher, also bei 200 bis 300 Dollar.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://cmds.lima-city.de/gold-silber-ratio.gif]

Wird es so kommen? Wir werden es sehen

VG

s3cr3tos

Hallo, ich habe ebenfalls eine Münze von meiner Bank bekommen, die ich komisch finde,

1. hattet ihr das auch schon mal?

2. Ist dies bedenklich, Schlägt sich ein solcher Zustand stark auf den Verkaufspreis nieder?

3. Wie kann sowas zustande kommen?

Danke für eure Meinung...Bilder im Anhang...die Münze ist von '86

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Da stimme ich zu, hier eine Graphik, die zeigt, wo wir uns im aktuellen Goldbullenmarkt befinden:

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Eigentlich ein Verbrechen was gerade abgeht...unglaublich...

jedenfalls hier noch ein Artikel von Peter Denk:

http://www.hartgeld.com/media/pdf/Denk-Bankendaemmerung.pdf

[Blockierte Grafik: http://s3cr3tos.beepworld.de/files/euro_cdu_1999.jpg]

Hallo Bembelpetzer, vielen Dank genau das benötige ich, und diese Graphik hatte ich schon gefunden.

Gibt es denn die Werte auch als Zeitreihe? Ich benötige die Daten, also nicht als Graphik...

Auf der Seite konnte ich keine Downloadmöglichkeit finden...

Weiss da jemand weiter?

Hallo zusammen,

ich bin auf der Suche nach Renditen (Yields) von Staatsanleihen für Deutschland und Italien seit 1950 (constant maturity, 10y oder 5y zB)

Kann mir da jemand weiterhelfen, wo ich diese Daten herbekommen könnte?

Danke und Grüße an alle.

ich würde die Aufteilung so lassen wie sie ist.

Jim Sinclair gefällt mir sehr gut:

http://jsmineset.com