Bob Chapman
Silver production and recycling produced about 730 million ounces in 2003. Demand was approximately 775 million ounces for a shortfall of 45 million ounces. The deficit this year, thus far, leads us to believe the deficit will be 60 million ounces. The big question about silver is how much inventory is left. No one really knows. Seven years ago we estimated that by the end of 2003 there would be little inventory left, or perhaps only as much as 300 million ounces. What ever is left it isn’t very much. Seventy to seventy-five percent of silver production comes from the mining of gold, copper, lead and zinc as a byproduct. There are few pure silver mines in the world. When silver hit $8.20 an ounce four months ago, it was the highest price since August 1987. Based on the ever-shrinking inventory, lack of exploration for the last 15 years and increasing usage, silver is poised for higher price increases in the future. Newly mined silver production dropped more than 3% in 2003 with primary silver mines accounting for 26% of available silver. The price of silver over the past several months is acting as it did in 1978 just prior to the boom in prices that occurred in 1979-80. Each time prices retreat and back and fill it is at a progressively higher price level. When silver ran last time, it jumped from $10 to $20 an ounce in a very short period of time, because there were few sellers. Perhaps the market may act in a similar way again in 2004. Having been in these markets for 45 years, we believe there is a good chance of that happening. It is also our opinion that India will end its ban on silver exports. When Japan ended its ban consumption increased because market liquidity increased and we believe the same will happen in India. People do not want investments that are illiquid. Over the past 33 years, silver demand has exceeded supply by 5%. Based on that silver prices should average $15 to $20 an ounce in normal circumstances and in times of economic and financial turmoil, sell at much higher prices. Silver is inelastic. Supplies cannot increase quickly due to major price jumps. After $20 an ounce the price of silver is based on psychology. Since we became involved in silver in 1960, we haven’t put much faith in the gold-silver ratio, so we pass on the discussion. We do put faith in the belief that there is a silver cartel among the major dealers to suppress prices. The CFTC and our government are well aware of this, but it won’t be long before they will be eating their shorts. That short position in silver, like the gold bullion dealer short in gold, will catapult prices in the future. You can only manipulate markets for so long and finally markets win out. Today’s prices are as low as silver prices are going to get. You should own gold and silver coins and stocks. In gold coins, we prefer numismatic coins at this stage of the market. Ninety-five percent of silver 90% bags have been melted, making them semi-numismatic and they offer the lowest buying premium.
erschienen: 12.Okt.04
Die wichtigsten Aussagen:
- Die große Frage ist, welche Silbervorräte noch im Lager vorhanden sind. Dies ist nicht bekannt, wahrscheinlich ist nur wenig übrig.
- Aufgrund der niedrigeren Lagerbestände, dem Mangel an Exploration in den letzten 15 Jahren und der hohen Nachfrage ist bei Silber in der Zukunft ein Preisanstieg zu erwarten.
- In den letzten Monaten verlief der Preis von Silber wie 1978, unmittelbar vor dem Boom 1979-80 (!)
- Jedes Mal, wenn die Preise zurückgingen, gab es danach höhere Preisniveaus.
- Als Silber beim letzte Mal zu laufen begann, sprang es in kurzer Zeit von 10 auf 20 Dollar, da wenige verkauften. Der Markt wird evtl. ähnlich 2004 verlaufen.