als Kommentar zum Artikel:
I commented on your last AG article and we went back and forth, going to try to go another few rounds as I put on my AG cheerleader hat and tow my perspective so other commenters here could see a dissenting opinion.
1) Price of silver. I feel you are missing a big piece of the puzzle here. I am looking for companies with good value and a tremendous upside for a year+ play. You may be looking for quarter over quarter short term analysis. If you are looking for a short term investment, it is hard to disagree with your perspective. I am looking for the long term, and am long AG options at $10 strike price for 1/22/2022. AG is a 60% silver producer, only matched by Endeavor (60%) and Impact (90+%). PAAS may be a volume producer, but they are only a 25% silver producer the last time I checked. IF silver goes to $50, AG has a much, much, much, much, much higher upside than PAAS. PAAS is a well-run company, but they made due with base metals. AG invested in HIG mills and improved their recovery rates to 90+% from 65%. Meaning - I am valuing a statistical probability of a much higher silver price 12+ months from now. That is my upside against my risk.
2) Tax situation. I think you are correct to mention this as a concern, but I read this had to do with an issue with their stream to Wheaton. From what I understood, they sold it at $4 or so per ounce to Wheaton based on a deal but the government wanted the tax of the true value of the silver, and not the $4 stream. Apparently, this was protected by NAFTA and this appears that the Mexican government is trying to shake them down. First Majestic has 5,000 employees and I can tell you that all miners are watching this. My personal belief here is that in arbitration this may be settled for pennies on the dollar. Neumeyer wanted this settled with embassies and it appeared the Mexican president is playing hardball. While I'm not sure what leverage AG may have. I do have legit concerns Mexico can turn more unfriendly towards mining if tax situations pop up everywhere. It is a LEGIT argument that Neumeyer should be operating in more than one country for this very reason.
3) Dilution. I think you are WAY off with this one. First, you didn't mention that $80m CAD was billionaire Eric Sprott buying in to AG which caused the dilution. Sprott liked how Neumeyer withheld silver and wishes other miners would do the same. You didn't like that move for Q2, but obviously Sprott (and me) did. This cash is important to have for several reason. First, you mention the mine life of one mine, but this cash also helps bring 4 mines back online that were higher cost mines. These were shut down with low silver prices, but make more sense with higher silver prices. Second, you didn't mention they have 30 drill rigs going for exploration, and that costs money. Third, to be cashed up during an M&A cycle gives Neumeyer a lot of flexibility to perhaps buy other companies to improve reserves. He also mentioned he would entertain buying outside of Mexico - which I think is his main idea here to diversify his jurisdictions and reduce the ability for a single government to turn his company off with the flick of a switch. If he's looking in Mexico, perhaps a Viszla (also Sprott loved) makes sense. You have Aftermath in Chile, Brixton in the US and Canada, and Reyna all Sprott liked companies that could be bought for exploration. You have GR silver and Bear Creek Mining. Silver One. Golden Minerals, Alexco, Silvercrest, Kootenay. Fourth - perhaps this tax resolution is settled for $30 million. Write a check. It's nice to have liquidity on hand.There is a debate on whether or not silver will hit $30, $40, $50...or even $100 at Neumeyer predicts. That is a legitimate discussion that could be had.As an investor, I'm looking at the best plays long term to capitalize on silver potentially hitting those highs. Here's what I see - ASSUMING much higher silver prices. If we are looking at silver at $24 for 4 straight years here and tax resolution not happening - hard to argue with many of your points. I see it differently.
1) Inside of 6-12 months, the tax resolution will be settled. This looks to have the share price down $3-5. Once this is announced, share price will move up, a lot.
2) Silver going to $30-$100 (or more). AG, Endeavor, and Impact have MUCH higher upsides due to their percent of silver produced. PAAS is well run, but having only 25% silver means there's a limited upside. Take out your calculator and spreadsheets and check the leverage to EPS when silver is $50. Silly. He was at $.04 EPS at $17 silver. At $50 silver it's just stooooopid money. Please...take out the Excel sheet and do the math. You will really have a moment.
3) Short interest now is 22%. I say..."good luck" when either of the two above items hit. Short squeeze will take share price up another $3 or more.
4) Tech. Their HIG mills have improved recovery, by a LOT. Take a look at their website and check out how they are complete pioneers in mining technology now.
5) Reduced costs. Less pay needed to get more concentrate. Lower fuel prices. Hydro damn built by one, LNG running another. While revenue is one side of the equation, costs are the other.
6) M&A - it seems Neumeyer may be active. Seemed interested in entertaining companies outside of Mexico to diversify. This can substantially improve their reserves and if done soon, prior to silver shooting the moon, this is has an incredible upside.
7) Experience. This guy has been doing this for a long, long time. All you see is dilution. I see him investing in technology and means of improving recovery while reducing costs. He is all over YouTube and when silver does shoot the moon, his face is plastered all over YouTube and investors will flock to AG first. His branding has no peers.
8 ) Robinhood - when silver does start moving north, and quickly, Robinhood will completely dominate purchasing. And First Majestic will benefit from that.
9) Exploration. With 30 drill rigs running on their properties, they are trying to expand out existing mines. This may have a significant effect on their reserves. And - this is Mexico - they may hit something BIG as well.I don't really think it's fair to compare AG to KL, given one is a primary silver producer with a byproduct of gold and the other is a gold producer when gold is at an all time nominal high and silver is at half of that. It would be a more fair comparison if silver was at $50 right now, and then I'd like to revisit that comparison. I'd take the Pepsi challenge on that.PAAS these days is a base metal producer with a byproduct of silver. So...might as well compare AG to Hecla.I am long AG. I have $10 strike price options for Jan 21 2022 and I think for that time frame, my investment will pay off massively. IF I was to buy AG shares now to try and flip them in 3 months, yeah, I might have a 5% gain. But you really seem to frame this as a terribly run company where your comparisons aren't fair and you completely miss out on the speculative upside which comes with the much higher silver price.