der bipartisan infrastructure investment and jobs act ist wohl nun verabschiedet.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/bri…-investment-and-jobs-act/
darin enthalten sind 12 milliarden us-d für den nuclear sektor - 6 mrd um abschaltungen zu vermeiden sowie 6 mrd für die sogenannten "advanced reactors".
für die, die es nicht wissen was das office of nuclear energy unter advanced versteht
https://www.energy.gov/ne/advanced-reactor-technologies
https://www.energy.gov/ne/arti…eactor-designs-watch-2030
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Hedge Funds Are Betting on Uranium
“Funds such as Ben Melkman’s New York-based Light Sky Macro, Anchorage Capital and Tribeca Investment Partners have been positive on the outlook for the raw material, as a global energy crunch highlights the role of nuclear power in a transition away from fossil fuels,” a Financial Times article notes.
We’ve been patiently waiting for something to happen for a long time,” said Ben Cleary of Tribeca Investment Partners in Singapore. “Clearly there’s speculative money coming back into the sector, there were massive price moves in September.”
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Uranium Story Part 11: Commercial Inventories
There’s typically limited information on commercial inventories held by utility companies. Confidentiality of producers, consumers and governments prevent us from having exact numbers. However, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the USA and the Euratom Supply Agency (ESA) provide estimates. Both agencies monitor the total sales volume of uranium/nuclear supply. In addition, the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) jointly publish the “Red Book” on uranium production and demand.
Through these sources we can obtain uranium inventories kept in the USA and Europe by civilian nuclear power plants. Table 2.6 below was pulled directly from the Red Book.
[Blockierte Grafik: https://esurien.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Table-2.6-Uranium-Inventories.jpg]
I went ahead and pulled 2020 numbers from the EIA and ESA, and created two tables with both metric tons of uranium and equivalent pounds of U3O8.
Note, one metric ton of uranium is 2,599.79 English lbs. of U3O8.
[Blockierte Grafik: https://esurien.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/US-inventories.jpg][Blockierte Grafik: https://esurien.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/EU-inventories.jpg]
Remember, the USA consumes about 48 million lbs. of U3O8 per year for their nuclear fleet. That is basically a quarter of the world’s demand of 180 million lbs. For 2020, commercial inventories in the US was 107 million lbs. of U308 which could last about 2 years. In Europe, their annual requirements are 13,793 tU (36 million lbs. U3O8). Thus, with 110 million lbs. in inventory, they have about 3 years of supply. Combined, the US and Europe are about half of annual global uranium consumption.
Interpreting Inventory Volumes
Note, both the USA and Europe uranium inventories are in a downtrend over the past 5 years. More importantly, these inventories are “uranium equivalent” volumes. This means that the uranium inventory is in different stages of the fuel cycle. Converting U308 to actual nuclear fuel can take 2 years. In short, not all inventory is ready for use in a plant. The clock ticks.
Indeed, two to three years is not a very long time in the uranium space. I cannot stress enough that these inventories are for emergencies. In fact, an idled mine can take 2 years to restart, such as Cameco’s McArthur River, and production takes months to ramp up. If the mine is not even built, it can take 3-5 years of permitting and construction before producing a single pound. Further, a new mine can take decades from discovery to actual production.
Many idled mines won’t start up without higher prices in the $60/lb. or more range. In fact, it might take $80/lb. U3O8 to incentivize producers to even start the process. Adding to the challenge is a pandemic, a labor shortage, and a supply chain crisis. Sprott’s Physical Uranium Trust is also eating up uranium in the spot market, depriving utilities. ANU Energy is starting up in Kazakhstan to do the same, thinning the market further.
Finally, there is the upcoming 2023-2024 contracting cycle. Utilities have to renegotiate contracts for dwindling production. They may last a few years from their commercial inventory but if mines don’t produce, not everyone may get supplies covered. Low supply and high demand results in higher prices.
Tick-tock…
bh bh
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. kl kann evtl mit macassa einen großteil von fosterville auffangen, ausserdem gab es auch hier vielversprechende exploration. dazu detour und eine großartige bilanz ... da hätten sie ohne probleme bessere übernahmen tätigen können. faustregel derzeit ca 450. mio cad für 100.000 oz produktion.
