haywood zu knt mir price target von 10 cad
Given our firm belief in the value of Kora, and the capacity of the geology to deliver further resource growth (underpinned by the 2020 PEA outcomes for the expansion) we have increased our target price to $10.00 (from $6.15).Our target is predicated on a 1.0x NAVmultiple to our Corp. NAV7% (Haywood Base Case), which following an update to our Kainantu mine model on the basis of the PEA update, increases to C$9.98/sh from $6.33/sh, previously. With the Stage 3 PEA now in hand, we now await the delivery of aFeasibilitystudy, which is expected to be completed by mid-2021.
As ahighlight, we notethat the Phase 3 expansion study outlined a NAV >20% higher than our previous expectations. Published metrics came in ahead of our estimates on CAPEX, grade, and costs, driving a NPV5% of US$1.6 billion using a price of US$1,600/oz Au, which compared to our previous estimate of US$1.35 billion using a long-term price of US$1,650/oz.
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RECOMMENDED ACTION We recommend accumulating shares at current levelsWe reiterate our Buy rating and revised target price of $10.00/sh (from $6.15/sh). We believe K92 offers Tier-1 asset exposure through its high-grade Kainantu Gold Mine in PNG, which is progressing towards near-term production growth in Q3/20.We anticipate K92 will continue to garner interest from investors seeking a growing production base and near-mine resource expansion opportunities.Given K92’s cheap valuation relative to peers, we believe the Company is well positioned for share price appreciation.
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Blue Lake Porphyry Au-Cu targetThe Blue Lake porphyryAu-Cu target represents one of several porphyry targets on the Company’s property (e.g., Yompossa, A1 and Yonki; see Figure 3) and was initially drill tested last year. The target exhibits spatially overlapping geochemical anomalism (Au-Cu) together with the presence of enargite-bearing breccia and vuggy silicarock in outcrop,and a diagnostic EM signature. Early drilling tested to 600 metres and revealed a Au-Cu mineralized propylitic altered zone below an advanced argillic lithocap (see Figure 6). This drilling commonly ended in Au-Cu mineralization with follow up drilling this year looking to test for potassic ‘core’ of the system.
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Valuation and Target PriceOur target price of $10.00per share is based on a ~1.0x multiple to our fully financed after-tax corporate net asset value (NAV)7%of $9.98per share. In deriving our corporate NAV7%, we have outlined two mining scenarios, the first (Stage 2) is based on the nearly completed mine expansionto a capacity of 400,000 tpa, and the second (Stage 3) is based on a conceptual mine plan that outlines a much larger mining operation utilizing a new 1 Mtpa processing plant. We have modelled the start of production for Stage 3at Kora and Kora North toin early-2023. Stage 3will include the construction of a new and larger processing facility using a similar flow sheet with throughput capacity of2,750tpd producinggold, silver, and copper concentrate andgold and silver dore.We anticipate a ~14-yearlife of mine for the overall production of 3.4Moz gold, 5.9Moz silver, and 265.6Mlb copper (~4.0Moz gold equivalent). K92currently has ~C$28.7million in cash and trades at a 0.68x multiple to our fully financed after-tax corporate NAV7%estimate of $9.98per share. Comparatively, other gold/copper-developer peers in Haywood’s coverage universe trade between 0.63x and 1.27x corporate NAV estimates.
http://cdn.ceo.ca.s3-us-west-2…m/1fip82q-KNTAug62020.pdf
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