Beiträge von ThaiGuru

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.mineweb.net/pics/logo.gif]

http://www.mineweb.net/fast_news/346693.htm

Harmony has Conops on 80% of SA production

By: Gareth Tredway

Posted: '10-SEP-04 15:43' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004

Harmony Gold, the biggest producer of South African gold, on Friday announced the successful negotiations with unions on the implementation of continuous operations at its Randfontein operations in Gauteng.

Including Randfontein, the company has already implemented conops at Free Gold, Evander, ARMgold, Elandsrand. The production from these operations represents about 80 percent of the company’s South African production, according to Harmony.

Conops refers to the practice where a mine operates on all the days of the year, including Sundays. Workers operate on a roster or shift arrangement which sees them work the same amount of hours per week and therefore the company needs to employ more people in order to facilitate working the additional days.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.mineweb.net/pics/logo.gif]

http://www.mineweb.net/sections/mining_finance/346702.htm

Mbeki swings at Anglo American

By: Jim Jones

Posted: '10-SEP-04 16:43' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004

JOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) -- South African president Thabo Mbeki’s attack on Anglo American and its chief executive Tony Trahar’s for Trahar’s recent comments on South Africa’s political risk have led to a diplomatic response from the world’s second largest mining group.

In an interview with the Financial Times earlier this week Trahar said he believed: “….the South African political-risk issue is starting to diminish - although I am not saying it has gone." It was to this juxtaposition of the words “political risk” and “South Africa” that Mbeki took exception and that gave rise to his acerbic written response on his ruling party’s website.

“Perhaps Mr Trahar has better information about the future of our country than all these (other investors), and we, have. Will he pass the information to them and us,to empower us to take better-informed decisions in future?” president Mbeki asked with scarcely disguised sarcasm.

The fact is that Anglo American itself has not invested in any significant greenfields projects in South Africa since its primary stock exchange listing and its corporate headquarters were moved to London in 1999. That move itself took several months of negotiations that led to an eventual relaxation of South Africa’s stringent exchange controls to allow the emigration.

Rather than invest itself in greenfields ventures, Anglo itself has increased its shareholdings in group companies such as Anglo Platinum, taken out the minorities of Anglo Coal and bought aggressively into iron-ore producer Kumba Resources.

Of course, group companies such as Anglo Platinum and AngloGold are investing in new capacity. And Anglo makes this point in its preliminary rebuttal of Mbeki’s article saying: “The company currently has new approved investments of some R26 billion. It has no uninvested surplus cash balances on which it is sitting and has reinvested in South Africa over R100 billion since January 1999.”

Anglo, Mbeki alleges, took advantage of the ability to exploit black labour during the apartheid years, in the process becoming the country’s largest diversified industrial/mining/financial group. Proffering an olive branch, Mbeki said that this was water under the bridge and that Anglo was now accepted as a good corporate citizen which would help the country’s economic development.

Fact is, and as Anglo executives and analysts have pointed out, for decades Anglo and other mining groups were virtually compelled to invest in industrial or financial interests because exchange controls largely blocked them from investing in mining outside South Africa itself. The truth of this is now seen by the fact that the likes of Anglo and General Mining (transmogrified into BHP Billiton) have sold non-core, non-mining assets to re-focus on their mining core competencies.

Anglo itself managed to develop abroad largely because it was paid in hard currency after its Zambian copper mines were nationalised 30-odd years ago. And now that its domicile is in London, the group seems set on rectifying the distortions of the years in which it was obliged to focus excessively on South Africa. Geographic diversification is the name of the corporate game.

Anglo executives in Johannesburg were not talking on Friday evening, confining their response to the group’s official statement.

Now corporate and political diplomacy will take over to pour oil on the waters troubled by the country’s president.

Anglo restates its confidence in South Africa’s political leadership wants to talk to government to come up with a joint approach to the issues

Skeptiker

Du befürchtest:

Zitat

"Dasgleiche gilt für die gigantischen Silbermengen, die in Form von Schmuck, Besteck, etc. um den Globus schwirren und zu Geld gemacht werden können. Diese für den Silberpreis negativen Einflussfaktoren lassen sich nur schlecht abschätzen"

Es ist absolut richtig, dass man nicht genau einschätzen kann, ab welchem Silberpreis die Besitzer von Silber in welcher Form auch immer anfangen Ihr Silber zum Einschmelzen zu bringen, respektive zum Silber Schrott Ankaufspreis der Händler zu verkaufen.

Die letzte mir bekannte grosse Welle von Silberverkäufen zum Einschmelzpreis fand 1979 bis 1980 statt, als die Silberpreise auf bis zu 54 Dollar pro Unze stiegen, und zum Beispiel für ein kursgültiges Schweizer Silber 5 Franken Stück, von Händlern bis zu 25.- Franken im Ankauf bezahlt wurden.

Also der 5 fache offizielle Wert dieses "Fünfliebers".

Damal 1979 als für ein Kilogramm Silber auf dem Höchststand sagenhafte 2900.- Franken bei der Bank bezahlt werden musste, war die finanzielle Verlockung für viele Silber Besitzer einfach zu gross, und sie verkauften ihr Silber.

Es waren zu dieser Zeit auch noch in den vielen Ländern dieser Welt, wenn auch bereits offiziell von "Blech Münzen" abgelösst, noch immer weltweit hundertausende von Millionen von Unzen Silber, in Form von Münzen im Umlauf.

Vielfach waren schon riesige Mengen an Silber Münzen eingezogen worden (Enteignet worden wäre eigentlich das zutreffendere Wort), und gegen billige fast wertlose Metallegierungs Münzen eingetauscht worden.

Die meisten gutgläubigen Menschen haben sich dazu überreden lassen, echtes werterhaltendes Geld wie ihre seit alter Zeit benutzten Silber Münzen gegen wertloses "Blech" einzutauschen, und haben sich nicht einmal als betrogen gefühlt. Es war mir damal wie heute nicht klar, warum es für die Zentralbanken, praktisch ohne nennenswerte Oposition möglich war die Bevölkerung so einfach ihres Silber zu entledigen.

Nun nochmal zu Deiner Befürchtung

Glaubst Du wirklich, dass Besitzer von sehr teurem Tafelsilber, oder Silberschmuck, für den üblicherweise bis zum 10, oder noch mehr fachen des Silber Preises bezahlt werden muss, plötzlich in grossen Mengen von den Besitzen zum Einschmelzen verkauft wird, wenn sich der Silber Preis zum Beispiel auf 12.- Dollar verdoppeln sollten?

1979/80 waren weltweit die Lager der Zentralbanken durch den "Rückruf" des Silber Geldes, und Umtausch in Blech Geld prall gefüllt mit physischem Silber. Heute sind diese ZB Silber Lager völlig abgebaut.

Das die USA ihr strategisches Silberlager von 730 Millonen Unzen völlig enthortet, sprich am Markt verkauft haben, ist bewiesen. Bewiesen ist auch, dass die Europäischen ZB über keine nennenswerten Silberbestände mehr verfügen. Wer diese Tatasache bezweifeln sollte, kann sich die Billanzen der ZB anschauen. Da ist heute praktisch kein Silber mehr vorhanden.

Eine der wenigen Zentralbanken neben Indien, die wahrscheinlich noch über nennenswerte Silber Bestände verfügt, ist China. Leider gibt es keine offiziellen Mengen-Angaben darüber. Dieses Bestände der chinesischen Zentralbank stammt noch aus der Zeit ende der 30er Jahre, als in China der Silberbesitz verboten, und eingezogen wurde. Die Chinesen wurden damals ebenfalls regelrecht ihres Silbers beraubt. Denn das Papier das sie für ihr Silber erhielten war schon bald praktisch wertlos. Besitze selbst noch einige dieser damals im gesammten asiatischen Raum weit verbreiteten Silber Geldes in Barren Form mit vielen Stempeln verschiedener Banken, und anderen ehemaligen besitzern.

Es liegt nahe, dass diese Silber Vorräte der ZB langsam aber sicher ebenfalls dem Ende nähern. Erstens weil schon so viel Zeit seit dem Silberverbot und Silbereinzug vergangen ist, zweitens weil die Chinesen immer wieder Silberlieferungen an den Westen bekanntgegeben haben, und von chinesischen Lieferungen in westlichen Zeitungsberichten die Rede war, drittens weil die Chinesen nach begründeten Aussagen von GATA , Silber gegen Gold geliefert haben. Zudem deckt die eigene Produktion den rasant steigenden Bedarf an Silber ebenfalls nicht.

Da die Chinesen bis jetzt nicht bekanntgaben netto Silber importiert zu haben, liegt der Schluss nahe, dass eben diese Silber lager dazu benutzt werden die höhere Nachfrage im Land zu decken. Ich bin überzeugt davon, dass an dem Tage wenn die Chinesen zum ersten mal zum netto Silber Importeur werden, es gleichzeitig auch der Tag sein wird, wenn man nicht nur von einem Silber Produktions Defizit wie jetzt, sondern vermutlich ohne jegliche Vorwarnung ein Silber Defizit Tatsache werden wird, mit allen plötzlichen Konsequenzen für die Silber Preise. Butler, (Spieler 0815 möge mir verzeihen), spricht im Falle dieses von ihm erwarteten Silber Defizites, von explodierenden Silber Preisen die bis auf 50.-, 100.-, oder mehr Dollar pro Unze betragen könnten. Ich selbst gehen davon aus, dass wir erstmal 12.- bis 30.- Dollar erreichen werden. Das wiederum wäre jedoch bei weitem noch nicht einmal das alte Hoch von 54.- im jahr 1979, als die Kaufkraft des Dollars bedeutend stärker war als heute.

Bis die Leute wieder wie 1979 ihr Silber einschmelzen lassen, und die verfügbare Menge an Silber dadurch nennenswert erhöht werden kann, glaube ich, müsste der Silber Preis diesmal noch höher stehen als 1979.

Ich selbst besitze mein physisches Silber bereits seit einigen Jahren, kaufe bei Gelegenheit nach Möglichkeit auch immer noch dazu. Ich habe dieses Silber als Langzeitanlage gekauft, und werde es bei erreichen von 12.-, oder 20.- Dollar pro Unze mit Sicherheit noch nicht verkaufen. Das kann ich Dir versichern.

Deine Befürchtung, dass das jetzt bestehende Silberproduktions Defizit durch Recycling gedeckt werden könnte, ist unbegründet, weil ganz einfach diese Mengen Schrott Silber dem Markt bei den heutigen wie ich überzeugt bin massiv unterbewerteten Preisen nicht in diesem Umfange zur Verfügung steht. Eine Ausweitung der globalen Weltsilberproduktion bei den heutigen Silber Preisen ist gleichemasen unwahrscheinlich, wie unrentabel. Dazu müsste Silber erstmals lange Zeit über 10.- Dollar pro Unze gehandelt werden, bis sich eine Mehrproduktion bemerkbar machen würde. Die Nachfrage nach Silber steigt aber jetzt schon, nicht zuletzt gerade wegen den jetzigen tiefen Silber Preisen. Historisch gesehen sogar total unterbewerteten Silber Preisen an. Vermutlich wird die Produktion weiter der Nachfrage hinterher eilen, bis die Silber Preise ein angemessenens Preis Nivau erreicht haben.

Das wird genau dann der Fall sein, und genau derjenige Silber Preis sein, der bewirkt, dass es kein Silber Produktions Defizit mehr gibt.

Also die Silber Produktion und die Nachfrage nach Silber müssten sich im Lot halten.

Von diesem Preis sind wir jedoch noch weit entfernt.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

Thom

Wollte eigentlich Spieler0815 heute nochmals detailierter Antworten, doch Deine heutigen Postings zum Thema Silber sind bereits so zutreffend formuliert, dass ich selbst darauf verzichten kann.

Deine Aussage zu Siegel früher auch als Pionier in Sachen Gold-, und Silber Aktien unter "Gold Hotline" bei W:O bekannt, stimme ich überein.

Es scheint so als ob Du meine Gedanken lesen kannst.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

afm

Anmerkung zu Deinem Thema Swissair, resp. Swiss

Die Swissair war früher ein Parade Beispiel für Seriosität, Zuverlässigkeit, Qualität, Sicherheit, Rentabilität, und war gleichzeitig der Stolz des überwiegenden Teils der Schweizer Bevölkerung. Swissair war auch ein Werbeträger par exelance für die Schweiz als Ganzes.

Dann begann die Zeit als Kuh Swissair "gemolken" wurde. Es gab sehr viele Melker die sich ihre Milch geholt haben. Die Berater Firma McKinsey http://www.mckinsey.com/war eine der ersten, das Management labte sich ebenfalls intensiv an dieser Milchkuh. Im Melkrat der Swissair sassen ebenfalls Melker, und eine Melkerin Vreni, die dafür gesorgt haben dass die Milchkuh immer schön Milch gab. Die Knechte tranken ebenfalls stetig immer noch mehr Milch. Das Heu das die Kuh zum fressen benötigte wurde der Swissair von den vielen stolzen Schweizern bezahlt, die sicher waren, sie würden auch zum Melken kommen. Dazu kam es leider nicht mehr, die Kuh war vom vielen Melken völlig erschöpft, wurde immer störrischer, und der Michstrom drohte zu versiegen.

Ein sehr teurer Rindvieh Doktor wurde zur Behandlung der Kuh Swissair hinzugezogen, doch der konnte ihr auch nicht helfen.

Da kamen die Melker zum Schluss, dass es besser sei die Kuh zu schlachten, daman wenigstens noch das Fleisch essen wollte.
Obwohl die Kuh bereits im Schlachthof angekommen war, nahmen die Melker, Knechte weiterhin das Heu der um die Kuh besorgten Schweizer dankend entgegen, und verteilten es unter sich.

Die vielen erbosten Schweizer die nun ihr Heu zurück haben wollten, wurde gesagt es sei leider kein Heu mehr da, da die Kuh bereits alles gefressen habe.

Hernach wurde eine neue Kuh namens Swiss angeschafft, da man kein Geld hatte sie zu bezahlen, und die meisten Swissair Heuspender kein Interesse an der neuen Kuh mehr hatten, kamen die Melker auf die Idee etwas von ihrem früher lange Jahre erhaltenen Milchsegen zusammen zu legen, und die staatliche Rindviehverwaltung, und die kantonale Viehzuchtanstalt um Hilfe zu bitten, doch bitte den Rest mit Steuergelder zu bezahlen, oder wenigstens mir Kreditgarantien zu helfen . Und so geschah es auch.

Die neue Kuh Swiss konnte nun gemolken werden, und wenn diese Kuh auch ganz aufhört Milch zu geben, kommt sie ebenfalls in den Schlachthof.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/images/mast_6.gif]

http://www.nationmultimedia.co…eme=A&usrsess=1&id=120615

Ob diese Meldung Auswirkungen auf den Goldpreis haben wird, kann ich jetzt nicht abschliessend beurteilen. Auf unser aller Wohlergehen, und unsere Lebensgewohnheiten hingegen wird diese Meldung mit Sicherheit Auswirkungen haben.

Wenn dieser hochansteckende tödliche Hüner Grippe Virus H5N1, der angeblich von Hühnern auf Menschen nicht direkt übertragbar sein soll, wie uns die Aerzte wiederholt versicherten, nun eben doch für Menschen zur unberechenbaren tödlichen Gefahr wurde, und bereits das erste Opfer forderte, wie man heute aus der thailändischen Zeitung entnehmen kann, möchte ich eigentlich auf einen anderen Planeten auswandern, und beten, dass es ein Einzelfall bleiben wird.

Andernfalls gute Nacht Freunde.

ThaiGuru

Breeder dies from bird flu

Published on Sep 10, 2004

The H5N1 strain of bird flu has killed a young fighting-cock breeder in the central province of Prachin Buri, authorities said.

The 18-year-old man fell ill on August 31 after 30 of 100 of his roosters perished, Public Health Minister Sudarat Keyuraphan said yesterday.

The man died on Wednesday night and lab tests confirmed yesterday that the cause was the lethal H5N1 strain, Sudarat said.

The dead man and his 16-year-old male friend from the neighbourhood in Kabin Buri were on the watch list for H5N1, she said. The younger man was sent to the district hospital yesterday morning but tested negative for H5N1.

Duangkamol Sajirawattanakul

THE NATION

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The US stock market continues on a slow road to nowhere. The DOW lost 24 to 10,298, while the DOG jumped 19 to 1870.

The dollar closed slightly higher at 88.83, up .03, and the euro gained .05 to 121.92. The Gold Cartel has put gold right back in its place as far as the euro is concerned.

08:30 Jobless claims for w/e 9/4 reported 319K vs. consensus 345K
Prior week revised to 363K from 362K.
* * * * *

The number of unemployed on the benefit rolls after claiming an initial week of aid rose by 20,000 to 2.898 million in the week ended Aug. 28, the latest for which figures are available.

08:30 August Import/Export prices reported 1.7% vs. consensus 0.6%
Prior reading revised to 0.3% from 0.2%.
* * * * *

10:00 July Wholesale Inventories reported 1.3% vs. consensus 0.6%
Prior reading was 1.1%.
* * * * *

10:30 API reports crude oil inventories +602K barrels
Distillate inventories reported +1.6M barrels, while gasoline inventories reported (4.5M) barrels.
* * * * *

10:31 DOE reports crude oil inventories (1.4M) barrels vs. expectations (1M) barrels
Gasoline inventories reported (2.5M) barrels vs. consensus (875K) barrels. Distillate inventories reported +200K barrels vs. consensus (1.125M) barrels. Oct. crude is trading higher to $43.20 in reaction to the data.
* * * * *

Bad day for the oil bears as it rose $1.80 per barrel to $44.57. Yes, some of this is due to concerns over Hurricane Ivan; however, it is ALWAYS something and is likely to be this way for a very long time.

Intermediate and long-term interest rates made a U-turn this afternoon.

Treasuries Lower Following 'Ugly' Auction

By Wayne Cole
Reuters
Thursday, September 9, 2004
http://www.reuters.com/newsArt…e=topNews&storyID=6195998

NEW YORK -- Treasuries prices turned lower in choppy trade on Thursday as an auction of U.S. government debt drew almost no private demand, leaving the dealer community holding a pile of paper.

"It was an extremely ugly auction. And that's something nobody wants to see, not the Street and certainly not Treasury given the amount of borrowing they have to do," said Sadakichi Robbins, head of global fixed-income trading at Bank Julius Baer.

The sale of $9 billion in reopened 10-year Treasury notes went at a high yield of 4.195
percent, well above expectations, and drew bids for only 2.12 times the amount on offer, down from August's 2.90 level. –END-

A heads-up on the auction from Canada's Rob Kirby:
Bill;
I was just reading the details of the 10 yr auction. Foreign central banks only bought 2.6% of the auction, primary dealers a record 96.4 % of the auction and yet the bid to cover was up a little bit at 2.12 ? These numbers do not make any sense at all? Foreigners have been buying on average somewhere north of 40 % of government bonds auctioned lately. US savings are inadequate to take down this much of the auction. Without foreign participation the bid to cover connot be this high. Can I smell fudged numbers a burnin here?
best,
Rob

Follow up from Rob:

Bill;
Just to elaborate on the rationale. Over the past number of auctions foreign buying has been anywhere from 38% to 54% of the winning bids - with 2 - 2.5 bid to covers. This time it clearly looks like they (foreigners) didn't show up at the auction at all - but we're told the bid to cover is still 2.12? So roughly 40% of the usual bidders didn't show up, the auction was figuratively horrible with a 4.195 average bid but the clowns want us to believe there were 2.12 in bids for every dollar auctioned. Well, not frikkin likely. This might in part explain the build in the repo pool - with dollars being added to help 'slop up' (monetize) excess debt. I personally, do not believe the auction results as published - IMO they are completely incredulous.
best,
Rob

From the inane Mr. Snow, who sounds like a parrot that awoke out of hibernation like Rip Van Winkle, spouting the party line of years gone by:

U.S. Treasury chief says backs strong dollar

WASHINGTON, Sept 9 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow on Thursday declined to comment on a two-year downtrend in the dollar against the euro and yen and reiterated his support for a strong greenback.

"One thing that I don't do as Treasury secretary is comment on relative values of the various currencies," Snow said in an interview on the CNBC cable television network. "But I often reiterate our policy, which is the policy of a strong dollar, a policy that we've stood behind since my first days in office." -END-

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

The Federal Reserve today, September 9th 2004, added $15.25 Billion in temporary repurchase agreements, an action that shot the repo pool back up to $59.265 Billion and kept the pool's 30-day ma rushing higher. The DOW's 30-day ma is keeping pace upward as well.

Last week I mentioned that the last time there was a sustained up move of repo pool totals was in December 2003 and the DOW took off on a 700 tear as a result. The chart shows this in good detail. Normally, there are seemingly random spikes above the ma red line. In my opinion, these occasional spikes up and down are just computer algorithm command repo issuances designed to APPEAR random when the goal is to establish a MOVING AVERAGE pattern as the main support lever. When the Fed wishes to actively steer the DOW or any of the other strategic commodities or indexes they depart from the norm to set up a sustained over-the-ma line condition like we see today.

I can't determine from this data WHICH index the Fed is actively supporting but a good rule of thumb is to watch the one that's moving (Always down for commodities like oil and always up for paper like the dollar but mostly bonds and the DOW). This suppression of commodities is, after all, the Fed's principal "monetary policy".

The outlandish US cotton subsidies of $3.9 Billion per year fit right in with government interventional philosophy. Of course, US cotton farmers wouldn't object to their free paper money without which they would wither under competition. Nor do the Fed's primary dealers hesitate to trash commodities through their numerous propaganda outlets. It is a war between strategic commodities and un-backed paper money and the most strategic commodity of all is gold.

Yesterday brought another deep vee for the MCDI as a close colleague noted. Recall, theses deep vees usually happen 30-60 minutes before 10AM and 12PM showing as either a spike or a dive to what seems to be a pre-determined point. This odd pattern has been noted by observes for years and was mistakenly attributed to derivatives targeting. As impossible as it may seem, these deep vees are simply the Fed moving the MCDI to their desired daily target. There is no relationship to associated daily news items and this fact continues to confound TA and fundamental analysis. The deep vees fits exactly with interventional analysis. So far all odd trading patterns, those way out of the ordinary, have eventually succumbed to interventional analysis and this should not come as a surprise.

Government simply can't afford to allow a small group of speculators to hold the market keys to their entire economic future. President Clinton expressed this dismay very early in his administration (1993) when he lamented "20-something bond traders held all the financial power". What we didn't know at the time was he had already taken steps with his financial hit-man Robert Rubin, to remove the bond trader's power. Gold was the key. Before the bond market could be subdued, gold HAD to be broken and as we see in
retrospect, it was.

Georgia

Watch carefully the next official appearance of Sergei Ivanov, the erudite Russian defense minister. Doubtless, it will send an un-mistakable message to the West. I expect such an appearance next week. Putin is under withering internal pressure from his generals to reverse US Georgia encroachment and we may even see a wider Russian strategic position being set-up.

Oil

Oil continues over $42 and all the Wall Street propaganda says that doesn't matter. Well, oil over $40 does matter and it will stay over $40 because the Strategic Petroleum Reserve was effectively drained during the last run up and the average cost to refill it is well over $40 per bbl thus there will be no deep fall in the oil price unless the oil derivatives guys want to take a bath.

Natural gas in New Zealand

I won't link the story but the Maui field in New Zealand is nearing depletion within the next 20 months or so and that means they will lose 25% of the electric power generation capacity within months, not years ( Most if not all electricity comes from Ngas). There has been no budget for purchasing external supplies. There's a lesson here. Energy is important and sweeping it under a rug does no good. Perhaps NZ can lead the way with a careful rationing plan as they become more efficient. Unlike some, they have no armies to get energy from others.

Generators and looming hurricanes

Florida braces for another monster hurricane. It sends shivers. There are still 100,000 people in the Tampa bay area out of power and getting pretty upset about it. West Palm Beach is worse off. One cannot find generators of any kind and even Honda warns (on their website) Florida residents not to order online expecting delivery any time soon.

Is there a "delete" button for hurricanes?
Mike

But, there is no inflation:

Bill,
I was reviewing my local paper about the construction of a new high school. Here's an excerpt:

"The overage from the budgeted amount is attributed to a rise in the costs of commodities, said Bruce Caughey, Douglas County School District's communications director. For example, reinforcing steel has risen from $325 a ton to $950 a ton since 2002; structural steel has risen from $1,500 per ton to $2,300 per ton; metal studs, plumbing pipes and gypsum-based drywall have all tripled in price; concrete has risen $10 per cubic yard; and carpet contractors are expecting their fifth price increase for the year from carpet manufacturers. The increases to the budget each time have averaged 3 percent to 8 percent, he said."
Regads,
Vinny

World Gold Council stuff:

Bill,

If you go on the WGC website and use their search engine for the following search strings the results are stunning:

Search string Results

Ernst Welteke 14
BIS 80
Andy Smith 6
Mitsui 8
Tim Wood 45
Jessica Cross 17
Robert Rubin 10
Barrick 49
Bill Murphy 0
Chris Powell 0
Reg Howe 0
John Embry 0
Jim Sinclair 0
Harry Schultz 0
Jim Puplava 0
Adam Hamilton 0
Edward Griffin 0
GATA 0
Lemetropolecafe 0

Now why would a supposedly PRO-GOLD organization turn up many hits for well known anti-gold people/organizations and turn up absolutely ZERO hits for the well known pro-gold commentators/organizations. Is that a coincidence??????

Regards
Adrian

There were some requests for Golden Star Resources ($4.40, up 9 cents) contacts from shareholders about their support of the World Gold Council. My friend Alan Marter, their CFO, can be reached at amarter@gsr.com and both Alan and CEO Peter Bradford can be reached at 1 800 553 8436.

The Chicago Natural Resource/ Technology Conference is coming up on October 23rd at the Rolling Meadows Holiday Inn. This past April I was the Keynote Speaker and the conference was most enjoyable. Can’t make it this year, however it should be a good one. For information:

Eric R. Radez
Investment Representative
David A. Noyes & Co.
317-633-1738
eradez@danoyes.com

The gold shares bobbed up and closed on their highs of the day, finishing with a bit of a flurry. The XAU gained .54 to 92.31, however, the HUI leaped 3.12 to 201.48.

There is every reason for both gold and silver to be headed for the moon. ONLY the constant price-capping interference of The Gold Cartel and friends is keeping their prices from doing so. By next week we ought to see more signs the cabal is in trouble and gold and silver on their way to MUCH higher levels.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

The John Brimelow Report

Many buyers; ? seller

Thursday, September 09, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.46, PM $ 7.19, with world gold at $399.60 and $399.20. Very high; lavish for legal imports: India must be a heavy importer at these prices.

TOCOM interest in gold fled as quickly as it arrived; Volume fell 53% to only the equivalent of 17,451 Comex lots, the active contract closed down 8 yen, and open interest fell the equivalent of 1,142 lots. World gold was down 40c from the NY close. (NY yesterday traded 48,661 lots; open interest dropped an abrupt 7,472 contracts to 249,239 lots.)

Yesterday, as Refco Research admits,

"noticeable bank selling into the advance kept the December contract in check above 402."

Observing

"with the fund longs so recently scalded and bank selling resurfacing, gold will need some fresh news to make a more committed move higher." (JB emphasis)

they understandably elect to play the obviously possible bounce by buying silver:

"Buy 2 December silver at market; risk close 8.0 cents below entry. Expect 6.45."

There are almost no Central Bank owners of Silver.

Judging by the quite violent swings in Open Interest, powerful forces are swirling around the gold market, little reflected in the price. But there is no reason to suppose this will impress the Middle Eastern/Indian buyer of physical. Sooner or later, the seller will have to decide if he will supply this relentless off take at these prices. Post 2000 experience suggests a retreat to demand-repressing higher prices fairly shortly. Also, the eradication of the spec longs, considering TOCOM and NY together, is proceeding rather rapidly.

JB

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

September 9 - Gold $397.90 down $1– Silver $6.14 down 2 cents

Market Lockdowns Continue

Zitat

"Nobody grows old merely by living a number of years. We grow old by deserting our ideals." --Samuel Ullman

A typical gold trading session during a spec liquidation. Rallies to take out $400 were rebuffed last evening by cabal forces, as were attempts to take out unchanged today on the Comex. Yesterday the open interest dropped another 7472 contracts to 249,239 as the specs continue to run for hills. Today’s capping most likely encouraged more of them to do the same.

In the past when we have had spec liquidations such as this one, the market has never rallied back up immediately. The lone exception, one which occurred months ago, was met by staunch Gold Cartel resistance below $410 and gold was sent right back down, nullifying the unusually fast gold price turnaround.

For the most part the trading during this session was blah. However, on a positive note, cabal sellers who sold above $408 were seen as buyers on dips today. Another positive is that these liquidations aren’t getting the bad guys very far. The cash market is just too strong. Years ago The Gold Cartel would take gold down $30 off its highs on a break like this. Not happening these days.

Look for strong physical market buying to come out of Hong Kong any day now.

Some follow up news out of London from our STALKER sources. The silver price break was definitely engineered by England’s Royal Mint, who WAS caught short the market. Seems they have a "sloppy" operation with a tendency to book orders without first locking in their prices. They were caught last spring and on this last run-up. How they are able to call in their markers and slaughter silver when they most needed it done is beyond me. I can only confirm that they have been able to do so.

The good news is the London market remains very tight and our dealer source says it is so tight he is having to come to the US to secure supply. This dealer is still looking for silver to rally 30%+ before year-end.

Of note is Morgan Stanley, who you will recall predicted silver was going to crap out to $6.10, is bullish and salivatingly so. While this is only a hunch on my part as a veteran commodity trader, this Morgan Stanley call of $6.10 less than two weeks ago has to be related to the Royal Mint in some way. The big boys got together and said we are going after the specs and bail out the Mint (part of their team). Now that the Mint has covered on the break, silver can resort to a more proper supply/demand equilibrium level – one far higher than here.

The silver open interest dropped a sizeable 3382 contracts to 83,353. The large specs have been vanquished once again. While silver still could not manage a higher close, it popped 6 cents late as locals were caught short.

The bigger issue of what is going on out there in US financial land is the apparent lockdown of all our financial markets. The Working Group on Financial Markets and the market rigging apparatus seems to have gone into full gear to keep everyone comatose until after the election. James McShirley commented on this in last night’s MIDAS.

Sure seems like the case to me. Whenever the bonds appear to break down or break out, they reverse. The same with the dollar. Gold should be flying yet all rallies are capped by Goldman Sachs and the rest of the cabal. Each time the US stock market was about to break down this summer, it was rescued by humongous futures buying. As oft-stated here, this is what economic fascism is all about. Father and the Orwellians know what is best for the rest of America. What is so bothersome is our leaders run around the world rah-rahing America’s free markets, free press and democratic ideals. Yet, we actually have a system in place which no one in America voted for. It is not right. Then, when someone like GATA or Sprott Asset Management objects in its super report, "NOT FREE, NOT FAIR: The Long-Term Manipulation of the

Gold Price," no one in the American financial market press will give the report the time of day. Why? Because we have no free press. We have a controlled press, just like we have controlled markets. This will all end VERY badly!

There are no trends which last in the major US financial markets:

September dollar
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/US/94

S&P weekly
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SP/W

Treasury bond weekly
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/TR/W

Gold weekly
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/W

Spieler0815

Aus Deinem letzten Posting

Zitat

Bezogen u.a. auf SSRI , PAAS, - Siegel, der von Silberminen relativ wenig hält., da er befürchtet, daß sie mit ihrem Kursanstieg einen Silberanstieg vorweggenommen haben, der so nicht eintreten wird und die Minenkurse deshalb einbrechen werden.

Mir ist sicherlich bekannt, dass Siegel früher mal in einer seiner öffentlichen Frage und Antwort Chats erwähnte, dass einige Minen einen Preis von 10.- Dollar pro Unze vorweg nehmen würden. Ob er nun genau die SSRI und die PAAS erwähnt hatte, kann ich ohne die Aufzeichnungen von damals durchzusehen, nicht mehr mit Bestimmtheit sagen. Es scheint mir im Moment nicht einmal sicher, ob er überhaupt konkrete Beispiele genannt hatte. Falls er diese von Dir heute genannten Minen erwähnt haben sollte, wäre Siegel von den Tatsachen überrollt worden, das diese beiden Minen heute nach wie vor ganz oben stehen, Paas wird heute sogar teurer gehandelt, als damals als die Silber Unze im März dieses Jahres mit fast 8.50 pro Unze gehandelt wurde.

Sehr viele andere Silberminen haben jedoch dieses Jahr vom Höchst preislich bereits bis zu 50%, oder sogar noch mehr nach unten korrigiert, z.Bsp. Mac Min, CDE, Hecla, SMRL, First Silber, etc. , und nehmen mit Sicherheit zur Zeit keinen Silber Preis von 10.- Dollar mehr voraus. Das scheint Dir vermutlich entgangen zu sein. Dass Siegel relativ wenig von Silberminen halten soll, daran kann ich mich beim besten Willen nicht erinnern, und bei den heutigen gefallenen Preisen kann ich es mir nicht vorstellen. Vielleicht kannst Du mir ja diese Siegel Aussage noch in den Thread stellen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

Silbertaler

Die wichtigste Aussage im Zeitungsbericht zu dem komplett aufgebrauchten strategischen Silber Reserven der USA scheint mir die darin von US Senator Mike Crapo, R-Idaho gemachte Aussage zu sein, für was die Amerikaner konkret dieses Silber zu einem sehr grossen Teil verwendet haben.

Zur Zerschlagung des grossen Silber Preisanstieges, der bis auf 54 Dollar pro Unze beim Silber 1979 führte, (Gebr. Hunt) und der Goldpreisexplosion 1980, der bis auf 850.- Dollar führte.

Das wird auch heute noch gemacht, nur gibt es dazu NOCH keine Beweise, jedoch viele Indizien die das bestätigen, und belegen.

Zitat

Crapo said the American Eagle is the world`s most successful silver coinage program. It was a creation of then-Sen. Jim McClure, R-Idaho, to thwart Carter and Reagan administration-era threats to dump the entire Strategic and Critical Materials Stockpile of silver on the open market.
Both Carter and Reagan auctioned silver during the 1979-1980 price runup in order to shore up the treasury and quash the silver and gold markets, which were threatening the US Dollar.

Skeptiker

Werde morgen auf Deine Bedenken bezüglich Recycle Silber, und den wie Du fälschlicherweise zu vermuten scheinst, Unmengen von Silber in Form von Schmuck und Besteck die vorhanden sein sollen, und den Silber Markt überschwemmen könnten.

Zeitungsberichte lassen daruf schliessen, dass die Amerikaner den Chinesen Gold im Tausch gegen Silber lieferten!

Silbertaler

Zu Deinem letzten Posting habe ich ein wenig in meinem Archiv gewühlt, und einen Zeitungs Bericht zur Tatsache, dass Amerika nach über 40 Jahren Silberverkäufen ihre gesammten riesigen strategischen Silbervorräte von 730 Millionen Unzen Silber aufgebraucht haben, und nunmehr Amerika zum ersten Mal ab ende 2002 wieder mindestens 10 Millionen Unzen physisches Silber am Markt kaufen muss, um ihre Silber Eagles weiter prägen zu können. Bill Clinten hat das Gesetz unterschrieben, und die US Mint hat bereits wiederholt Silber gekauft.

Meldung zu Silber Käufen werden, resp. wurden damals ebenso wie viele wichtige Meldungen zum Gold, und Silber Geschehen heute, sofern sie positiv für die Preise auswirken könnten, von den grossen Nachrichten Agenturen meistens völlig ignoriert. Für Gold, und Silber negative Meldungen werden hingegen jeweil weltweit intensiv, und wiederholt verbreitet.

Der Link des damaligen Berichtes führt heute, aus welchen Gründen auch immer, ins Leere!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

Good Morning!
Monday
June 10, 2002

http://www.cdapress.com/story.asp?str=6494

Bill would create new silver market

Strategic stockpile will be empty in two months

By DAVID BOND
Staff writer

KELLOGG -- Legislation before Congress will enable the federal government to become a net silver buyer for the first time in four decades.

The bill sponsored by representatives from three of the nation`s silver-producing states, would create a new market for domestically produced silver in government-minted coins. It is good news, if preliminary, for North Idaho mines -- many of which have been idled amid slumping metal markets.

The initiative was prompted by news that the U.S. government`s 730 million-ounce strategic stockpile of silver -- accumulated in the years immediately following World War II -- will be empty within the next two months.

Since 1986, the stockpile has quietly walked out of the U.S. Treasury, been stamped into rounds by Sunshine Minting Co. and struck by the U.S. Mint into 1-ounce investment coins - at the rate of about 10 million troy ounces per year.

Since its congressional authorization, the U.S. Mint`s coin program has consumed 137.5 million ounces of the white metal. At current consumption rates, the stockpile will be gone by the end of July, Sen. Mike Crapo, R-Idaho, told The Coeur d`Alene Press.

Zitat

"With the depletion of silver reserves in the Defense Logistics Agency Stockpile, it has become necessary for the Department of the Treasury to acquire silver from other sources," Crapo said.

The American Eagle program has netted more than $264 million to the Treasury since its 1986 enactment, Crapo said. But now that the government`s silver is gone, the Mint should be authorized to replace it from the market.

Crapo said the American Eagle is the world`s most successful silver coinage program. It was a creation of then-Sen. Jim McClure, R-Idaho, to thwart Carter and Reagan administration-era threats to dump the entire Strategic and Critical Materials Stockpile of silver on the open market.
Both Carter and Reagan auctioned silver during the 1979-1980 price runup in order to shore up the treasury and quash the silver and gold markets, which were threatening the US Dollar.

Crapo`s legislation, co-sponsored by Sen. Wayne Allard of Colorado and Sen. Harry Reid of Nevada calls for a continuation of the American Eagle coinage program. It additionally would allow the U.S. Mint to buy silver off the open market "while not paying more than the average world price," Crapo said.

"I feel very positive about this legislation. This is a benefit to the Treasury and to the silver mining industry. The fact that my co-sponsor, Sen. Reid, is Senate Majority Whip, is also encouraging," Crapo told The Coeur d`Alene Press.

Based on the Mint`s current consumption rate, the legislation would create a market for 10 million ounces of silver annually - the equivalent of two Sunshine mines.

A Crapo staffer told The Coeur d`Alene Press on Friday that the legislation could contain language requiring the Mint to purchase silver from US refiners, if it complies with current trade treaties.
At current consumption rates, the Mint would need to buy, at the mill-head, about one-fifth of all American silver production.
The legislation, as-yet unassigned a bill number, is printed and will be introduced next week, Crapo told The Coeur d`Alene Press on Friday

P.O. Box 7000 / 2nd & Lakeside / Coeur d`Alene, Idaho 83814 / 208-664-8176

Spieler0815

Du schreibst:

Zitat

Anders sieht das mit den Minen aus, die zT einen Silberpreis von 10 Dollar vorwegnehmen

Könntest Du den Lesern hier bitte einige konkrete Beispiele von Silberminen nennen, bei denen Du einen Aktienpreis vermutest, der einen Silberpreis von 10.- Dollar pro Unze vorweg nimmt?

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/images/gslogo.jpg]

http://news.goldseek.com/AuthenticMoney/1094762002.php

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/A…Money/authenticmoney1.JPG]

Gold –The Weekly Global Perspective w-e 10th September 2004

By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold-Authentic Money - Authenticmoney.com

[Blockierte Grafik: http://news.goldseek.com/AuthenticMoney/julian.jpg]

That was the week that was

This week the $ / Euro play continues to allow the hedge funds to hold sway over the market, as gold hovered round support levels and then fell below them, only to challenge these, now resistance levels, immediately after the very different words from Greenspan. His words of warning certainly lowered expectations of a rate rise in the near future, sending the $ down through its support levels.

The market was thin, through the week, so the hedge funds, with small activities dictated the moves and dealers positioned themselves, by pricing in expected moves, quickly. Like a sea with changing tides, the waves sent mixed signals to the players. With the Technical picture still on a knife’s edge, the market was skittish and the funds saw an opportunity. They saw the break in support and went short with some vigour, only to turn round and cover the shorts as Greenspan’s words turned them around. Normally they would have had a great price impact, but a market that wants to hold its level and rise, because of fundamentals factors, cannot be pushed down for long. Greenspan’s comments did just that. If tomorrow is another “Frantic Friday”. It will be a churning one seeking direction. The question will be then, will it find it?

Short term prospects for the price:

The tone has changed, without doubt. Greenspan’s confidence in the recovery is nowhere near the levels it was last time he spoke and the time before, even with his positive remark, “the expansion has regained some traction”. The market will have to absorb his comments carefully and adjust to the nuances he gave. No wonder the long term [10yr] T-bond rates have been dropping whilst the market talked itself into rising rates. Should you question this perspective, have a look at one of his earlier in the year speeches. We expect to see this adjustment in perceptions continue not just in the short term but the medium and long term too.

But first there may be hesitation in the market’s actions as it re-evaluates the big picture, before acting. The funds will do their best to ‘whip up the surf’, as they tried to do in the last week [unsuccessfully] in gold. Our advice to make sure you are ready for the Autumn [not the fall], is sound and those who do understand the market are ready and are taking positions. Are you? [Look at our services below, to see where you can get ready]

The Euro broke upwards through resistance, this week after the chairman’s speech to close to $1.22. Most expected $ strength, which did not come allowing the gold price in Euros to stay above Euros 326, still.

With the physical market buying on dips, as all professionals do, they will not be pushed into a position where they have to pay more. They will pick the time to buy, using the futures and options markets to smooth their supply requirements, so do not expect a flood of buying from them to dominate. That flood will steadily take from the markets as tides affect the sea, but they will leave the wave making hedge funds et al, to define the very short term prices.

We give the definitive short term Technical picture with price guidance in our new “Changing Tack – The Metals”, Changing Tack – The Indices” and “Changing Tack – The Ratios”. We have other publications, which may suit you better, so please contact us directly for details. See below for our medium and long term Technical picture services.

At the time of writing gold stood at $399.10 and Euros 327.32. The Euro itself is worth $1.2193.

Large Scale Speculators.

With momentum players going short, then changing direction later in mid week, the tendency for the large scale speculators was to reduce their exposure overall. The market saw some long positions liquidated in a move that was interpreted as ‘looking for direction’. The net position pulled back, if we add in the moves after the numbers were taken, last week Friday, of around 342 tonnes, down from 367 tonnes the previous week.

This indicates to us that the “Sons of Gwalia” position has now been squared with the banks. Clearly they are not going to venture out again until they hear the Trade deficit tomorrow and the retail figures next week. They will watch the impact on the $ of these numbers before their next play.

China – The Central Bank Governor speaks on Gold!

Considering that China and its approaching 2 billion people are growing in wealth at a dynamic rate perhaps one of the most important statements made about gold was made this week. In no uncertain terms, the Governor of the Bank of China has shown that the government of China, is determined to increase the levels of gold held in China, by Chinese citizens.

It is a lot easier to encourage this than for the Central Bank to go into the open market to acquire gold for its reserves.

In his speech to the London Bullion Market Conference in Shanghai, the Chinese Central Bank Governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, made it absolutely clear that the Chinese government wanted its citizens to own gold! Trading in gold will provide another choice for individual investors who keep their money in bank accounts due to a lack of desirable investment options, the official Xinhua News Agency quoted the central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, as saying.

Trading by individual investors [in gold] would unlock some of the 1.2 trillion yuan (U.S.$145 billion; Euro 119 billion) now kept idle in bank savings accounts, he confirmed the governments position with these remarks in particular, taken from his speech this week.

"China will speed up the opening of its gold market to bring gold exchanges more in line with international practice," ……………."China's gold market will eventually become one inseparable part of the international gold market." …………. He then gave motive for the citizens of China for turning to gold, saying, “Futures gold trading will provide gold consumers and buyers a channel to protect against price shifts," ……."It may also give those who want to take profit on betting on price trends another investment channel."………”trading of the physical commodity would allow individuals to hedge their investments against swings in inflation”. Earlier this year, he had indicated that by further developing the gold market, creating safety and a highly efficient gold trading system and exploring new trading products with investment and hedging functions, the Chinese gold market would fulfil a transition from the present spot market to a comprehensive financial market.

The moves have been taking place steadily over the last year, but for the inscrutable government, through the key official in this matter, the Chinese government has become unequivocal on gold.
For the solidly determined nature of the Chinese government, this could not be a stronger pro-gold statement than it is! The ramifications go far further than the simple projection of a tripling of gold purchases in China to 600 tonnes within a decade. 600 tonnes would cost a mere $7.716 billion of the $145 billion Zhou referred to, a paltry 5% of this amount. If the Chinese hear his words and act, it will not be a ‘slow boat’ that takes it there, but 600 tonnes of gold will reach China in a lot quicker time than a decade!

But of deep significance is the now disclosed attitude of the Central Chinese Bank towards gold. There positive attitude is not merely accommodating gold keen citizens, but seen in the context of the changing attitude of Central Banks towards gold, no doubt it should positively influence many other Central Bankers globally, on their thoughts towards gold, as a reserve asset and an alternative to the $!

Transactions on the Shanghai Gold Exchange totalled 235.35 tons valued at 22.96 billion yuan (US$2.7 billion; euro 2.3 billion) last year. In the first seven months of this year, trading volume jumped to 363.76 tons valued at 36.9 billion yuan (US$4.5 billion; euro 3.6 billion).

Hedgers beware - Aussie Gold shares after “Sons of Gwalia”

The aftermath of the fall of the “Sons of Gwalia”, has been similar to the fortunes of Barrick, prior to turning against Hedging. The stark reality of the risk taken on by hedgers when they went too far in their hedging was a down rating of the performance of the share. The same seems to be happening to Aussie shares. Do not be surprised to see a further lowering of hedging levels even amongst those who have and still are lowering their hedging levels! Pierre Lassonde, the president of the world’s biggest gold company Newmont Mining, fuelled the fire. “Gold hedge books are real liabilities that will continue to grow and likely sink more gold companies,”

The U.S. Recovery.

It seemed a week ago so ‘cut and dried’. The near certainty that a 25 basis point interest rate rise and the sustainability of the recovery was apparently established! We all expected Mr Greenspan to give us words of confidence in the future. The whole year we have been told the recovery has taken off, that it is sustainable and the future looks good. Then came the speech from the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. He gave us small items of comfort, but occasionally cloaking them with a warning that it was not going to last into the medium and the long term. He told us, “Consumer spending and housing starts bounced back in July after weak performances in June, although early readings on retail sales in August have been mixed”…… “In the manufacturing sector, output has continued to move up in recent months, though part of that rise likely reflected an increase in inventory investment. In the labour market, though job gains were smaller than those of last spring, non-farm payroll employment growth picked back up in August”……. “Nevertheless, the outlook for oil prices remains uncertain. Higher prices have damped the consumption of oil--for example, U.S. gasoline consumption, seasonally adjusted, fell about 200,000 barrels a day between April and July. But the growing concerns about long-term supply, along with large prospective increases in demand from the rapidly growing economies of China and India, both of which are expanding in ways that are relatively energy intensive, have propelled prices of distant futures to levels well above their ranges of recent years”………..

“Nonetheless, the prospects for the federal budget over the longer term remain troubling. As yet, concerns about the budget do not appear to have left a noticeable imprint on the financial markets.”………. “These developments, however, do not warrant complacency about the fiscal outlook. With the baby boomers starting to retire in a few years and health spending continuing to soar, our budget position will almost surely deteriorate substantially in coming years if current policies remain in place.”…….

This has been entirely consistent with our expressed views for the bulk of this year, sad to say. This speech in our opinion has certainly removed the doubts about Mr Greenspan’s integrity, with the elections approaching, for it is unreserved in its castigation of governments and their failure to prepare for the future. His picture of the future pulled no punches, whilst pointing out the positive, stating that effective controls should be in place to ward off the potential disasters of the ‘baby boomer’ retirement bomb. We recommend you read his words directly to get the sense of the dangers the future poses.

It reminded us of the story of the man who fell off the 50 floor building, who was heard to say as he passed the 12th floor, “So far, so good”. We will be pointing out the ramifications of his speech for gold, in the next issue of “Gold – Authentic Money” & “Gold – Authentic Money – Gold’s Macro Economic scene” .

Beware of the dressing up of this picture, or the elimination of key parts of what was said and the dangers of Mr Greenspan’s own opinions being wrong. Let’s face it, while consumption was strong in July, it was boosted by large and unsustainable auto incentives, and the evidence suggests August was a disappointing month for retailers. Indeed, even the numbers from the chain stores were extremely poor, with one economist expressing scepticism about the August Payroll figures, saying the increases came form the ‘seasonals’. The International Council of Shopping Centers said same-store sales rose just 1.1% last month, below an already reduced forecast of 1.5%. In addition, more than 80% of the non-farm payroll gain in August came from government estimates of new business start-ups. In addition with Ford laying off 800 workers and more expected, and Delta Airlines cutting 7,000 jobs and implying bankruptcy was possible, it is getting difficult to believe we have the strong recovery all were punting in the first half of this year. As we said earlier, we doubt we will see another rate hike before the election, even tough the bulk of the market is still talking Fed rates up. This sent the $ through its support levels!

Silver $6.14

The price broke down this week, heading quickly for $6.00 as we thought it would. This after a thin week where total speculative positions only dropped 9 million ounces down from a total of 347 million ounces. There are many silver bulls out there who may well be right in the longer term, but right now the bears are in charge.

Platinum $827

Barely any change in the total speculative position with a 1,000 ounce increase in total speculative positions. With the metal moving slightly better than, but still in tandem with, the Euro, the picture will continue to reflect the overall precious metals picture.

The London Gold Fix

Gold Fix 9th September a.m. $399.25 E 327.791

9th September p.m. $398.70 E 327.528

[Blockierte Grafik: http://allafrica.com/img/static/aa-trans_200x116.gif]

http://allafrica.com/stories/200409090390.html

Gold Fields to Target SADC, South America

Business Day

(Johannesburg)

September 9, 2004

Posted to the web September 9, 2004

John Fraser , Resources Editor
Johannesburg

Mine group plans to expand existing projects

WORLD No4 gold producer Gold Fields is expected to target future international acquisitions in SA's neighbours and in countries on the west coast of South America, CE Ian Cockerill said yesterday.

Cockerill said the group planned to grow through expansion of existing projects and exploration, and also by acquisition, and he highlighted the two regions as the likely destinations for corporate activity.

Gold Fields is preparing to reverse-list into Canada's Iamgold, after which its operations in SA and its neighbours will be run from Johannesburg, while its global operations will be run from North America, with Iamgold being renamed Gold Fields International.

Cockerill told an analysts' briefing in London yesterday that Mvelaphanda had a 15% stake in Gold Fields' South African operations, and that this partnership would offer Gold Fields new opportunities elsewhere in the Southern African Development Community .

"There is no lack of opportunities in this region," he said.

Countries with interesting prospects included the Democratic Republic of Congo, Tanzania and Madagascar.

When asked about international opportunities for Gold Fields International, Cockerill said he was "not fixated" on acquisition targets in any particular region.

But he said Gold Fields was underrepresented in the Americas, and that there were attractive gold deposits on the west coast of South America.

The group was planning to develop the Cerro Corona gold mine in Peru, which would give it a foothold in the region, "and we will continue to look at increasing our exposure there".

Once established, it would be easier to assess and pounce on further projects.

Gold Fields would look more widely for quality assets, but the region it acquired new projects in was less important than the assurance that future acquisitions enhanced shareholder value.

He said there had been a fall-off in South African production since 2000, but suggested this was a natural response to the ore bodies being in deep-level, mature mines.

The decline in South African production would be more than compensated for by expansion elsewhere.

But Gold Fields wanted to focus on "a few, high-quality ore bodies", and was not interested in assembling a "telephone directory of mines".

"If you have too many mines, the mines start to manage you; you don't manage the mines," he said.

Cockerill said that as well as planning to boost production by 1,5-million ounces a year over the next five years Gold Fields also wanted to grow the market, suggesting that as a senior player in the gold industry he believed that Gold Fields had to take some responsibility for boosting demand.

This would be through helping to grow the gold jewellery market, and for investment gold items.

Cockerill said although the group sought to expand outside SA, suggestions that it had an exit strategy from SA could not be "further from the truth".

It was wise for resource companies not to have all their eggs in a one-country basket, and the volatility of the rand was one factor behind Gold Fields' wish to have more mine projects in dollar-denominated regions.

The decision to reverse-list into Iamgold had been the best option, but Gold Fields had also considered a more direct initial public offering listing of its international assets offshore.

Spieler0815

Ob Du nun glaubst es gäbe Silber im Ueberfluss, oder nicht, ist Deine eigene Schlussfolgerung. Ob Du selbst an steigende, oder fallende Silberpreise glaubst ist ebenfalls Deine Sache, und Du kannst hier im Thread auch Deine Ansichten zum Silber nach Lust und laune posten.

Wenn Du aber jetzt plötzlich unrichtige, und nachweislich falsche Behauptungen zum Silber Verbrauch verbreitest, und suggerierst ein Produktionsdefizit existiere gar nicht, ist das nicht nur mehr Deine Sache. Es ist nicht nur unseriös, unsachlich, sondern zeugt davon, dass es Dir nicht darum gehen kann zum Thema Silber beitragen zu wollen.

Auf was stützt Du eigentlich Forderungen nach Beweisen für ein Silber Defizit!

Wenn Du die Aussagen von Butler, und meine eigenen genau liest, kannst Du unschwer festellen, dass von einem

Silber Produktions Defizit

gesprochen wurde, und NICHT von einem Silber Defizit !

Dieses Silber Produktions Defizit ist eine Tatsache

und wird jedes Jahr vom Silber Institut mehrmals veröffentlicht, der offiziellen Vertretung des Silberproduzierenden, und Silberverarbeitenden Gewerbe. Diese Zahlen die quartalsweise veröffentlicht werden, und

seit 14 Jahren in Folge ein Silber Produktions Defizit ausweisen,

sind ja wohl Beweis genug, dass weltweit weniger Silber produziert, als von den silberverbrauchenden, oder silberverarbeitenden Firmen weltweit benötigt wird.

Da ich auf Grund Deiner Postings annehmen muss, dass Dir das Silberinstitut noch nicht bekannt ist, hier noch der Link:

http://www.silverinstitute.org/

Den Silber Bugs ist diese Tatsache seit Jahren bekannt, und deshalb investieren sie bereits seit längerer Zeit in Silber, und nicht erst dann, wenn als naheliegendes Ergebnis des seit 14 Jahren bestehende Silber Produktions Defizites es sich in ein wirkliches Silber Defizit verwandeln wird. Es ist bei einer weiterhin bestehen, und auch gerade jetzt wieder stark steigenden Nachfrage nach physischem Silber, bei gleichzeitigem weltweiten Silber Produktions Rückgang (Beide Tatsachen kannst Du ebenfalls beim Silber Institut nachlesen), keine Frage OB es zu einem Silber Defizit kommt, sondern nur eine Frage WANN dieser Zustand eintreten wird.

Dich mögen die Aussagen von Butler nerven, und auf den Wecker gehen. Du wirst vermutlich auch nicht der einzige bleiben der das so sieht. Das ist jeweil eine Ansichtssache!

Meiner Ansicht nach, hat sich Butler wie nur ganz wenig andere Leute neben ihm, für die Sache der Silber Bugs eingesetzt, und mich nervt er keineswegs. Ich bin mir persönlich absolut sicher, dass die Vorwürfe an die Seite der Silberpreis Manipulateure mehr als nur zustreffend sind. Auch wenn es für Leute die sich mit Silber noch wenig auseinandergesetzt haben, oder Personen die einfach nicht verstehen können, oder wollen, was nicht schwarz auf weiss bewiesen ist, oder von der offiziellen Presse als Wahrheit publiziert wird, etwas schwer zu verstehen ist.

Die Einsicht, dass es von Vorteil ist physisches Silber, den derivativen Instrumenten, wie sogenannten Silber Zertifikaten der Bullion Banken vorzuziehen, wird leider immer noch viel zu wenig verstanden, und führt dann manchmal sogar zu ganz grotesken Vergleichen, bei denen Kartoffeln mit Silber verglichen werden.

Als Anhang die neuste Veröffentlichung des Silber Institutes!

Wie Du unschwer festellen kannst Spieler0815, wurden weltweit von allen Minen folgende Silber Mengen produziert ! Produktion gegenüber 2002 rückläufig!

2002 = 596.4 Millionen Unzen Silber
2003 = 595,6 Millionen Unzen Silber

Die totale Silber Nachfrage war jedoch bedeutend höher! Die Nachfrage gegenüber 2002 steigend!

2002 = 845.8 Millionen Unzen Silber
2003 = 859.2 Millionen Unzen Silber

Die Differenz wurde durch Recycling Silber, und Regierungsverkäufe ausgeglichen. Die Zahlen kannst Du ebenfalls ersehen.

Die diesjährigen Zahlen werden aller Wahrscheinlichkeit nach mit Sicherheit wieder ein Silber Produktions Defizit ausweisen. Die Nachfrage nach Silber dürfte sich im laufenden Jahr 2004 sogar überproportional erhöht haben, und die Produktion vermutlich wiederum Rückläufig sein, oder bestenfalls stabil bleiben.

Das bei BEWIESENEM Sachverhalt eines bereits seit 14 Jahren bestehenen Silber PRODUKTIONS DEFIZIT, die Vermutung mehr als naheliegt, dass der bestehende Nachfrage Ueberhang nicht unendlich weiter durch Regierungs-Silber-Lieferungen gedeckt werden kann, ohne dass die Quellen an Regierungs Silber eines Tages völlig erschöpft sind. Ueber den Zeitpunkt kann man sich Unterhalten, und gegenteiliger Meinung sein, nicht aber ob ein Silber Produktionsdefizit besteht, oder nicht, wie Du es leider gemacht hast.

Gruss

Thaiguru

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

THE WORLD GOLD COUNCIL MUST GO!

This is going to be brief and right to the point. The World Gold Council has to be one of the most ineffectual organizations in history. Worse than that, it has stood in the way of organizations such as GATA that have worked to expose the most important aspect of the gold market: the manipulation and suppression of the gold price itself. Can there be any more important issue to the shareholders of the companies that support this so-called council?

With all that is going on in the world these days that is probably going to send the price of gold to the moon, the WGC comes out this past week with a $17 million jewelry promotion. Much criticism was sent their way in years past about their failure to address gold as money and its growing role as a strategic investment vehicle. To promote gold's jewelry aspect is almost harmful in the area where it could help the most. Sure, many people in India, Asia, and the Middle East buy HIGH-CARATAGE jewelry, partly as a form of investments They will continue to do so. What needs stimulating is Western investment demand. Promoting the jewelry aspect of gold IS a NEGATIVE to most investors in the west for gold jewelry represents high mark ups, lower gold content and a lousy investment – one that loses 40% of its value or more once the buyer leaves walks out of the jewelry store.

Bottom line is the WGC is a nauseating failure of an organization and must go. Their exchange traded fund entity scheduled to debut on the NYSE is so far behind schedule, it is farcical. As I understand it, the WGC has gone through a "quiet period" during this registration process. Brilliant move! If this so, and since they filed this new entity 18 months ago, they have been rendered useless (which they always are anyway) during this period of time. Why are their members paying them $3 per ounce of gold produced to do nothing? It is a complete waste of money.

The World Gold Council only has 22 members but they include some of the most influential gold companies -- Anglogold, Barrick, Newmont, Gold Fields, and Placer Dome. Then there are smaller companies like Golden Star Resources, which much to my consternation remains a member.

I believe that Golden Star CEO Peter Bradford is one of the finest executives in the gold industry and deserves many accolades for turning GSS (my first or second largest share holding) from an exploration play into a mid-tier gold producer. Late last year Golden Star was the high flyer from a stock appreciation standpoint among the smaller producers. But since Golden Star's bid for Iamgold was rebuffed, the GSS share price has languished and lost its standout status.

Surely, the costs incurred in the takeover effort will have to be written off. That's the way the cookie crumbles. Yet it's time to get this superb company on the move again -- time to cut costs. Golden Star Resources has become a player and has grown up. As a substantial shareholder and one who has brought perhaps a thousand or so other shareholders to the company, I urge Golden Star to get out of the World Gold Council. It is a waste of our shareholder money.

I have spoken to Peter about this as well as to Golden Star's very able CFO, Alan Marter. In this regard, I urge all Café members who are GSS shareholders to contact the company on this matter if you feel like I do. Enough is enough. Perhaps we can influence the company in some way so that it may be more profitable and we can start something -- maybe the establishment of an organization that really will represent gold shareholders around the world.

My colleague Chris Powell sent out this dispatch last week. Chris has a wonderful talent of laying out the picture clearly with very few words:

8p ET Thursday, September 2, 2004

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The World Gold Council purports to be the representative of the gold community but until today it had had virtually nothing to say for three months -- not a word about Sprott Asset Management's report confirming the manipulation of the gold price, not a word about the collapse of Sons of Gwalia because of excessive hedging, not a word about Blanchard & Co.'s lawsuit against Barrick Gold and JP Morgan Chase for manipulating the gold market, and barely a word about Argentina's defiance of the International Monetary Fund by purchasing 42 tonnes of gold for diversifying its foreign exchange reserves.

And as the world financial system creaks, groans, and trembles all around, what was today's WGC statement about?

It was about another advertising campaign for gold jewelry -- anything except analysis of what really matters to gold's future, liberating the price and thereby restoring monetary and investment demand and adding to individual liberty throughout the world.

Today's statement from the gold council is appended. The council calls its jewelry campaign "Speak Gold." It might better be called "Speak No Evil."

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *

World Gold Council unveils £10m global advertising campaign

September 2, 2004

http://www.gold.org/news.php?id=3329273

The World Gold Council (WGC) has unveiled its latest £10 million international advertising campaign, "Speak Gold," designed to stimulate consumer demand for gold jewellery in key global markets.

Acclaimed photographers Michael Yamashita, William Albert Allard, Jodi Cobb, and Joel Sartore, were asked to capture the emotional role played by gold jewellery in the lives of women all over the world……

-END-

Some feedback from Café members on the World Gold Council:

Bill,
The WGC Speak Gold campaign is worse than just misguided effort. It is in my opinion a denigration cloaked as a promotion. By using adjectives such as "ordinary" and "everyday lives" they reduce gold to mere common status, and in fact take away the exclusivity gold should carry. Ordinary people are getting pushed to the wall with inflation and monetary debasement and yet they launch "jewelry for the common woman". Ordinary people are far more interested in real wealth protection than bobbles and adornments. The WGC not just ordinary stupidity but a deliberate insidious message in my opinion. Much like the tobacco industry educating children on the dangers of smoking. The WGC is the last organization that should be educating anybody, yet they keep getting millions to misinform. That is no accident, IMO.
Best wishes,
James McShirley

Hi Bill,
As per your request at bottom of Midas, I sent my below email to all those media email addresses.
Regards, Sid

Subject: FW: WGC in avoidance mode

Hi all,
For some strange reason the WGC (World Gold Council, who is supposedly pro-gold) won't reply to any emails which explain the illegal downward manipulation of the gold price. This manipulation is explained in my attached concise proof.doc, which I called Gold Manipulation for Dummies, so anyone can understand. It is also explained in the recent highly acclaimed Sprott report (at http://www.sprott.com then click on Special Report) , which WGC still has yet to comment on.

NB: The WGC does reply to other emails (not related to manipulation) - I have tested this already.

Clearly, either:

a) WGC doesn't believe in gold price manipulation, which is fine, but they won't explain why they disagree... or

b) WGC is too scared to accept manipulation (because an exploding gold price would destroy some hedgers & derivative banks such as Barrick, J P Morgan... and of course Sons of Gwalia who GATA predicted a year ago would collapse and have done so)... or

c) WGC is actually anti-gold (eg part of the manipulation scam), despite saying they are pro-gold.

Could you all send this email to the following email addresses:

Katharine.Pulvermacher@gold.org
jill.leyland@gold.org
info@gold.org

If they don't reply (as I suspect) please send it more than once.
Regards, Sid

Bill,
If I can take you away from the TCU football game, Dallas Cowboy Preseason game and George Bush money spending marathon speech; all happening simultaneously' and of most importance to Dallas Texans, I enjoyed your email regarding the World Gold Council.

As one who has enough interest in Gold to attend your Washington DC press club presentation a few years ago amongst other gold events I must admit that I had never been to the World Gold Councils web site. I went their tonight. One of the curious features of their site, I noticed right off, is their 13 most frequently asked questions. None of which mentioned GATA. Makes me wonder: "Frequently asked by whom?" Their silly frequently asked questions prompted me to pose a question of my own to the World Gold Council by email:

I noticed at your web site you have the 13 most frequently asked questions.
One question I hear all the time, but I did not see on your list of most frequently asked questions, is who is the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee?
Who are they and how do you support them?

I'm not holding my breath waiting for an answer.

Yo Gata! Yo Murphy!
Greg

The gold shares continue to weave and bob with little conviction. The smaller golds remain comatose.

The XAU lost .38 to 91.77 and the HUI gave up .94 to `98.36.

The euro put in an outside key reversal day to the upside:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/EC/94

The incredibly bullish news brought to your attention over the past many days has not gone away. Neither have the Arab, Chinese and Indian cash market buyers. The case for owning old is going off the charts. I will be stunned and dead wrong if gold and silver are not FLYING by next week!

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Appendix

http://www.nationalreview.com/…/bartlett200409080940.asp

September 08, 2004, 9:40 a.m.
Creative Accounting Only Goes So Far
Unsound transactions are going to catch up with the government.

A new report from the Congressional Budget Office explains that the deficit is a virtually meaningless measure of the government’s indebtedness. The main reason for this is that the federal government uses cash accounting rather than accrual accounting. What this means is that the government can acquire massive debts far into the future with virtual impunity. The government can also, in effect, cosign for loans and provide insurance that could potentially cost taxpayers hundreds of billion of dollars without it ever showing up in the budget until a check has to be written.

By the CBO’s reckoning, the federal government’s true debt last year was $8.5 trillion — more than twice the debt held by the public, which we generally think of as the national debt. That figure came to $4 trillion, only slightly more than the $3.9 trillion in future benefits owed to government employees and veterans.

But even the $8.5 trillion figure is much too low because it excludes the really big debts that are owed for Social Security and Medicare. Since these obligations extend far into the future, the only way they can realistically be quantified is by using a statistical method called present value. This takes account of the fact that $1 fifty years from now is worth much less than $1 today. Future debts need to be discounted to put them into today’s dollars.

Even with discounting, however, the figures are massive. The CBO estimates the unfunded liability for Social Security at $7.2 trillion. But this is virtually nothing next to the $37.6 trillion cost of Medicare. In short, we would need to have about $45 trillion in the bank today earning interest in order to pay all the promises that have been made for future Social Security and Medicare benefits — over and above the future taxes and premiums that will be collected to fund these programs.

To put these numbers into a form that is comprehensible, the CBO has made a calculation of the future gross domestic product that will be produced over the same time period. These are the actual resources from which Social Security and Medicare benefits will be paid. The CBO estimates that we would have to raise taxes by 6.5 percent of GDP immediately and forever to maintain these programs in perpetuity. This year alone, that would mean a tax increase of $800 billion.

This is why I believe it was utter insanity for the White House and Congress to have enacted an expansion of Medicare for prescription drugs last year. This one unconscionable action increased the long-term liability of Medicare by 1 percent of GDP forever.

A key reason why they were able to get away with this idiotic action was that all the costs come well in the future — the program doesn’t even begin until 2006 and then phases-in for a few years before being fully effective. Thus, for a time, Republicans were able to promise something-for-nothing. It’s only a matter of time before taxes are sharply increased so that the elderly can get for free what the rest of us have to pay for ourselves.

It goes without saying that if any private corporation had behaved the way the government has, it would soon find its executives being sentenced by a federal judge. It is illegal for businesses to keep their books the way the government does, hiding their long-term liabilities from shareholders the way the government disguises its indebtedness from voters.

Writing in the Nebraska Law Review last year, George Washington University law professor Cheryl Block compared bookkeeping by the federal government to bookkeeping by businesses involved in corporate scandals. She found little difference. Congress, she wrote, "has been guilty of using accounting devices remarkably similar to those used by Enron, WorldCom and others to ‘cook the books’ and to mislead the public with regard to government finances."

At least when a corporation misbehaves, there is an ultimate market check in the form of bankruptcy. Creative accounting can only go so far in covering up transactions that are fundamentally unsound. But national governments never go bankrupt and don’t have to worry about customers buying their goods and services for revenue. They just raise taxes or print money and keep on going. "As a result, temptations for the government to engage in creative accounting may be even greater than those in the private sector," Block suggested.

It’s worth keeping this in mind the next time some congressional demagogue denounces corporate dishonesty.

— Bruce Bartlett is senior fellow for the National Center for Policy Analysis. Write to him here.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The US economic news continues to be dismal and Greenspan’s testimony was less than exhilarating, yet the DOW only lost 29 to 10,313, while the DOG dropped 8 to 1851. If it weren’t for the PPT the US stock market would be MUCH lower than where it is. In time their efforts will fail. Look out below!

Greenspan before Congress:

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Wednesday the U.S. economy has "regained some traction" after faltering during the second quarter, hinting strongly the central bank will raise interest rates when its top policy-makers next meet Sept. 21.
But in testimony to the House Budget Committee, Greenspan implied the Fed sees no reason to accelerate the pace of "measured" interest-rate increases the Fed has followed since June. "Despite the rise in oil prices through mid-August, inflation and inflation expectations have eased in recent months," he said in prepared remarks.

The US economic news CONTINUES to fail to meet expectations:

09:09 WMT not changing holiday sales view despite a weak August - Reuters
Company is presenting at the Goldman retail conference currently; Bloomberg reports that the CEO says gas prices and terrorism concerns are hurting consumer spending.
* * * * *

Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Delta Air Lines Inc., calling bankruptcy ``a real possibility,'' will cut as many as 7,000 jobs, or 12 percent of its workforce, as part of a plan to shave $5 billion in costs by 2006.
Delta, the third-largest U.S. airline, will eliminate most flights at its Dallas-Fort Worth base and expand operations in Atlanta, Cincinnati and Salt Lake City, Chief Executive Gerald Grinstein said in a speech to employees broadcast over the Internet. –END-

Coca-Cola lowered its expectations for the coming quarter.

REUTERS Economy in many US regions slowed in July, Aug-Fed

WASHINGTON, Sept 8 (Reuters) - The economy in many areas of the United States grew at a slower pace in late July and August as household spending softened, the Federal Reserve said in a report on Wednesday.

"Economic activity continued to expand in late July and August, although several districts indicated that the pace had slowed," the Fed said in its "beige book," an anecdotal look at the U.S. economy from the perspective of its 12 regional banks.

The Fed said in the report that a softening in household spending reflected "lackluster retail sales and some cooling in new and existing home sales." –END-

15:00 July Consumer Credit rises $10.9B to $2.04T
Expectations were for an increase of $7.5B. Prior reading revised to $4.3B from $6.6B.
* * * * *

Bellwether Intel made another 52-week low close at $19.72, down 17 cents. Texas Instruments warned after the close, saying cell phone sales are disappointing.

Meanwhile, the situation in Iraq is near chaos:

U.S. Conceding Rebels Control Regions of Iraq
By Eric Schmitt and Steven R. Weisman
The New York Times

Wednesday 08 September 2004

WASHINGTON - As American military deaths in Iraq operations surpassed the 1,000 mark, top Pentagon officials said Tuesday that insurgents controlled important parts of central Iraq and that it was unclear when American and Iraqi forces would be able to secure those areas….. –END-

Two more US soldiers were killed today along with scores more of Iraqis.

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:
The Federal Reserve added $4.5 Billion in temporary repurchase agreements today, September 8th 2004, an action that reduced the repo pool a bit to $57.515 Billion. It is still VERY high and the pool's 30-day moving average has turned sharply up. This indicates a firm Fed application of repo support that is directly associated with the recent DOW up turn. The DOW's ma is also moving back up. Taking a DOW Diamond position for the September expiration, however distasteful that may seem, isn't a bad idea at this moment.

This DOW movement and repo match is similar to the pool's up spike in December that took the DOW up with it. It seems to me like the Fed has refocused away from oil derivatives (If that's where the excess repo funding went) towards the DOW in earnest. Do not be short.

DIVG

The PM Fix was $396.30 and € 329.15 with the common dollar index up a bit. I get my clean DIVG at 12:30PM but this prelim looks like the cartel might be slipping the DIVG a bit.

My Thursday deadline for being in your favorite gold vehicle may be stretched out a bit, giving folks a little longer to buy in at the mini cycle low. It's like picking the exact day of a bottom swing and as such one shouldn't focus too much on the minutia. I'll have the clue I want by closing time today.

The Fed in May exited their retreat plan (set since Feb), topped on July 2 and then came back down and turned around on August 17th. Since the 17th we have bounced a bit but are getting set for another turn perhaps down, perhaps flat. IF it is down then I know how far to down move will go and it won't last more than two weeks. I'll have more later in the day on this topic.
++++++++++++++++++++++

The Wall Street propaganda machine is well-oiled and ready to pounce on any off message article such as John Embry's recent piece. They simply shunt it to the side. Others challenging the official view of things find similar sledding:

Graham Says White House Hid Sept. 11 Info
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: September 7, 2004 Filed at 10:48 p.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/aponlin…nal/AP-Graham-Saudis.html

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Former Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Bob Graham accused the White House on Tuesday of covering up evidence that might have linked Saudi Arabia to the Sept. 11 hijackers.

Graham's charges, made in a new book and at a news conference arranged by the John Kerry campaign, were rejected by Republicans as ``bizarre conspiracy theories.'' The Saudis said Graham's claims were unsubstantiated and reckless.
++++++++++++++

The above story is useful to gold bugs as it reveals the response of those controlling the news to any "message" contradiction. Play the "conspiracy" card. I'm not evangelizing here but there is a mountain of unanswered 911 questions, not least of which is the conspicuous Bin laden/Bush oil link; the aided exit from Tampa during private flight grounding orders; the link from the Saudi firm Delta Oil to the commission's chair Kean (Amerada Hess is partnered with Delta Oil); and the huge short selling of American and United Airlines the week before 9/11.

It is my view that ignoring the identity of the 9/11 short sellers is like omitting the name Oswald from the JFK assassination probe.

Graham was a long term member of the House Intelligence Committee and had ample access to classified information.

Don't ever expect Wall Street to acknowledge the gold "problem". They will be buried by a wall of physical buyers who have given up on their "good economy" nonsense.

The twin hurricanes that hit and a third still threatening Florida have had a serious effect on the fall tourism season and hence Florida's economy. So much so that Jeb Bush has launched an ad campaign luring customers. That's a bit much with 50,000 Tampa customers still without power, the food stores shelves denuded of perishables and West Palm Beach residents in shock from similar but much worse conditions.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

More later,…….

Hi Bill:
Last week's Thursday, September 9th deadline for being IN has been extended for about a week to September 17th but no longer (to be safe) so folks now have a bit more time to acquire their favorite gold investment. This occurred because the Fed seems to be turning the metric I follow from up to downwards after their bounce on August 17th.

Given the heavy physical buying information flowing into the café this additional Fed down press maneuver makes no logical sense at all, especially in light of the bond top last Thursday. All I know is what the Fed has done and it affords another buying opportunity at a time when other major indexes are turning. If I'm wrong then this move is only a flat phase and players won't be hurt by waiting. If I'm right then some additional bullion or equity discounts will be garnered. Selling gold equities at this point is NOT recommended.

We can say by inspection that the Fed is whip-sawing the COMEX gold market by running it up, then down then up again. The COMEX speculators really don't like this whip-saw one bit and have run away. It wrecks their computer models. In my experience the Fed does things for a reason and this prep work is looking more and more suspicious.

I'm still concerned that all this bullion selling is a set-up for a big event right around $400 per ounce.
+++++++++++++

Georgia Boiling, Putin's Rage

For months I have been warning that Vladimir Putin is very unhappy with the US for meddling in Georgia. Recently, sources inside Russia have directly criticized the US for indirectly aiding Chechen terrorists.

Today the gloves came off with the following angry Putin speech. In it, Putin accused the US of interacting with Chechen terrorists, giving asylum to rebel ministers and accused the UK providing asylum to the envoy (Zakayev) of the leader of Chechen terrorists (Maskhadov). Putin came ever-so-close to accusing the US of being directly involved with the Beslan atrocity. The phrase that Russia was... "one of the greatest nuclear powers
of the world" was conspicuous.

This situation is very serious and represents one more foreign policy land mine that the administration has carefully sought out and then...stepped on. Delusional is the only word for the Bush policy of attempted Russian destabilization.

Wednesday, September 8, 2004. Page 1.
Putin Lashes Out at the U.S.
By Simon Saradzhyan
Staff Writer
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2004/09/08/002.html

President Vladimir Putin accused the United States of undermining Russia's struggle against terror by meeting with Chechen separatists and rejected calls for a public inquiry into whether authorities mishandled the hostage-taking in Beslan.

Putin told a group of Western policy analysts Monday night that his administration has repeatedly complained about meetings between U.S. officials and representatives of Chechen separatists, but to no avail.

-END-

Mike

Gold demand news:

Taiwan's demand for gold increases 19%

CNA , TAIPEI
Monday, Sep 06, 2004,

Taiwan's demand for gold during the second quarter of this year increased 19 percent compared to a year earlier, according to the latest report released by the World Gold Council (WGC). –END-

What goes around comes around! JP Morgan Chase and Citigroup Inc. are both Gold Cartel heavyweights and both were cited as defendants in Reg Howe’s lawsuit in Boston Federal Court years ago. Both have been stiffed in the Daughters of Gwalia matter by their own nefarious greed and crooked ways. Let’s hear some Bronx cheers for the bums:

Wednesday September 8, 6:26 PM

Gwalia Says Total Liabilities A$862M, May Sell Tantalum

PERTH (Dow Jones)--The administrators of collapsed gold and tantalum miner Sons of Gwalia Ltd. (SGW.AU) said Wednesday that total liabilities are now estimated at A$862 million, with operations continuing on a "business as usual basis".

Liabilities including A$490 million of financier and counterparty debt, A$235 million owed to U.S. noteholders and A$70 million to trade creditors, they said in a statement. Earlier estimates had put the total debt at almost A$700 million…..

Besides the hedging debt, Sons of Gwalia was last month estimated to owe US$170 million to U.S. pension funds, following a private note placement in 2000 arranged by J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM).

Citigroup Inc. (C) is understood to be the company's biggest hedging counterparty, with an exposure of between A$100 million and A$150 million.

-END-

To the venerable Mr. Richard Russell:

From: Wistar Holt [mailto:wholt@holtshapard.com]
Sent: Wednesday, September 08, 2004 10:08 AM
To: 'staff@dowtheoryletters.com'
Subject: Wistar Holt @ Holt & Shapard Capital Management. St. Louis, Mo.

Dear Richard,

As much as I respect you for your experience and market wisdom, I have to point out that you appear to be showing signs lately of selective memory. Yesterday (and often), you supported your "deflation" forecast, referencing that day’s decline in gold and silver (as well as higher bonds and lower CRB.) However, you ignored the fact that copper was much stronger (remember, this economic indicator is amongst the best) and stocks were much stronger. One can certainly not claim that the equity market is forecasting deflation or else the indices would be plummeting by now.

All of this is leading me to a point. Most of us supporters of GATA (Gold Anti-Trust Action) and James Sinclair clearly believe that the gold and silver markets are manipulated excessively by the bullion banks, central banks, and the ESF. The metals daily declines have absolutely nothing to do with deflation forecasts. Presently, the fundamentals are extremely bullish for the following reasons:

1. Expanding budget, trade, and current account deficits
2. Sharply rising debt and declining savings rates
3. Sprott Asset Management gold manipulation documentation
4. Argentina gold purchase of 42 tons
5. USB report claiming European central banks will only sell ½ of the amount of gold approved by the second Washington Agreement
6. Sons of Gwalia declaring bankruptcy with excessive gold hedges
7. Expansion of gold trading and accumulation in China

Most of us believe that the ESF is also behind the "stabilization" of the U.S. dollar (they don’t want it either too strong or too weak), as well as the equity markets. This is the reason we witness such volatility and inconsistency in the markets. Intel’s significant negative news is suddenly a moot point and the market soars? The dollar surprisingly rallies following very negative consumer confidence and ISM data? This is a joke!

At times you subtly reference "manipulation," or as you call it the "zutz." If you do feel it exists, perhaps elaborating on that explanation provides a clearer rationale to your audience than trying to apply fundamental logic, when there are counterbalancing forces at work.

Sincerely,

Wistar W. Holt
Holt & Shapard Capital Management, LLC
212 N. Kingshighway Blvd. Suite 1027
St. Louis, MO 63108
(314)367-6300 / (877)367-6300
http://www.holtshapard.com/

GROUNDHOG DAY ALL OVER AGAIN

If anyone thinks every day seems like groundhog day the last 3 months in the trading markets here might be the reason why. I took a closing settlement from June 1 and compared it to a settlement around September 1st. By the way, can you spot the non-rigged market in the bunch?

June 1st September 1st

DJU4 (Dow) 10,195 10,171
SPU4 (S-P) 1121 1119 (9-2)
DXU4 (dollar) 89.16 88.92
CLV4 (crude) 41.10 42.15
GCZ4 (gold) 398.00 399.40 (9-7)
SIZ4 (silver 6.10 6.19 (9-8)
LBU4 (lumber) 366.90 446.30

What are the odds of all the above financial instruments being essentially unchanged 3 months forward? Lumber on the other hand is all over the map and winds up 22% higher? Don't blame lumber prices on hurricanes either, lumber had been doing multiple limit-ups prior to the hurricane season. Lumber is not rigged because of 2 things, it is not a proxy or a threat to the Wall Street paper instruments and the lumber mills actually DESIRE a higher price and will not sabotage that happening. They have the benefit of a housing bubble (demand) and have control of production (supply). They legitimately hedge, but would never commit for years of production at outlandishly low prices. They are vociferous in their belief in lumber. If the lumber industry had a WGC type equivalent they would advocate buying lumber for crafts and hobby use, while ignoring the billions of board feet that could be consumed in homebuilding. Rigged vs. non-rigged? Only Wall Street, the FED, ESF, JPM, Goldman Sachs (and fortunately GATA) know for sure.

Yours truly on a perfect $2 collar day,
James McShirley

Heads-up:

Hi Bill,
You're so very right in last night' Midas in saying "To this day there has not been ONE serious treatment of the brilliant Sprott report by the financial market press around the world." The only news publication doing any reporting seems to be Business Times in Singapore. The article is already archived and the site requires a password.

Per the Singapore Press Holdings web site "SPH publishes 14 newspapers in the four official languages and six lifestyle magazines. Everyday, 2.78 million people, or 90 per cent of those above 15 years old, read one of these. Its online editions of six main SPH newspapers enjoy some 120 million pageviews a month."

Canada report lends support to gold 'conspiracy' - August 26, 2004
... In a document titled 'Not free, not fair: the long-term manipulation of the gold
price,' John Embry, the chief investment strategist at Sprott Asset Management ...
http://business-times.asia1.co…ory/0,4574,126643,00.html

- 43k -similar pages
Regards,
Greg

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

The John Brimelow Report

Happy Indians; Bianco on Authorities and Markets

Wednesday, September 08, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.49, PM $8.21, with world gold at $398.45 and $396. 90. Extremely high. India is clearly a very active importer at these prices.

The same is apparently true for silver also. Several commentators remark on the strength of physical demand after the price slide, including Mitsui-London:

"This morning…with an initial fall of 10c, the silver has found very good physical support coming in, especially from the Indians."
(Mitsui is a big silver shipper to India.)

TOCOM gold sprang into life, for reasons that are not clear. Volume surged 88% to the equivalent of 40,866 Comex lots, for once exceeding platinum by value traded. The active contract fell 15 yen, but world gold actually edged up 70c from the NY close. Open interest was fairly steady, falling the equivalent of 421 Comex lots to equal 89,779 lots. (NY yesterday traded 64,186 lots; open interest fell 3,958 to 256,711 contracts,)

Yesterday (and again this morning) gold overseas was reasonably firm, but was mauled in NY. Observers, as usual blame "funds". Refco Research:

"From open on the COMEX, gold futures largely ignored a soft tone in the dollar and trekked lower on fund long liquidation (and selling). Bank buying (short covering) into weakness helped limit the decline."

UBS:

"…funds continued the selling they started on Friday. Despite the huge selling the market was countered with good physical demand, holding the $397 support…Gold closed near the lows. The Asian market showed good bids again but the market run into more fund selling near $399. Europe started timid around $398.50 and is waiting to see if the physical demand will be enough to support the profit taking wave."

Volume yesterday did turn out to be heavy. (Unusually, the Comex estimate was exceeded by the actual by 50%, having made the reverse error about Friday.) Open interest contraction slowed, suggesting Refco is right in sensing shorting present as well as capitulation. If heavy, this would open the way to a steeper recovery than otherwise.

(At this writing -12-25 PM – gold, having bounced $4, has traded sideways just under $400 for just over an hour. A very odd pattern!)

With Wall Street preparing for a bout of Greenspan-worship, it was timely to read a skeptical comment from Bianco Research this morning, which also draws attention to the inter-relationship between the authorities and politically sensitive markets:

"Comment - Alan Greenspan has been fond of saying that the oil market has been dominated by speculators who pushed the price to nearly $50. He often cites the CoT report as evidence. Now the BIS is echoing (or maybe just repeating) Mr. Greenspan.

"The data…tells a different story…We believe that if any one group was behind the move higher, it was the Hedgers. Their net position was extremely net short last March. As prices moved higher, they began to cover, or buy back, their short positions. That, more than any action by large speculators, helped drive oil prices higher. A similar development occurred in June 1999. Once again, the Hedgers were at an extreme net short position. This bet on a peak in the price of crude oil failed…

"Furthermore, while Greenspan is fond of blaming hedge funds and other leveraged speculators for higher crude oil prices, he's quick to dismiss any notion that his policy of holding the target federal funds rate below its "neutral rate" (which most believe is at least 3%) is causing any speculation in interest rates. (JB emphasis)

"To put it bluntly, it looks like Greenspan/BIS are not actually doing analysis but justifying current policy. They believe high crude oil prices do not reflect well on their policy choices so they simply attribute the aberrant rise in prices to speculation. In much the same way, they believe that rampant speculation in short-term interest rates also does not reflect well on them or their policies, so they announce that there is no such speculation in short-term interest rates.

"One wonders what "announcements" Greenspan will make later today."

JB

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

September 8 - Gold $398.90 up $2– Silver $6.16 down 2 cents

Goldman Sachs Stuffs Gold Rally / World Gold Council Must Go!

Zitat

We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office...Aesop (620 BC-560 BC), Greek slave and fable writer

GO GATA!!!

Buying surfaced in Hong Kong (as expected here) last evening, however when the dollar rose sharply vis-à-vis the euro, gold sold off going into the Comex open. Weak specs were flushed out early as gold fell to the $395 level and then reversed course for two reasons:

*the extremely firm physical market
*the dollar reversed course very sharply

It seems traders were waiting for Greenspan to give his usual Wall Street spin presentation before Congress this morning and to sell the dollar on his delivery. The dollar eventually fell .44 to 88.80, while the euro gained .75 to 121.82. With the euro rebounding off a 120.25 low, gold was spurred on.

The "fast funds" were early buyers along with SoGen. Once gold cleared unchanged, it made a beeline for $400. Then GOLDMAN SACHS along with Deutsche Bank SIMULTANEOUSLY began to sell "thousands" of contracts to stem the advance. It is almost ALWAYS Goldman Sachs, along with someone else, stopping gold when it builds a head of steam. I have been reporting on this constant price-capping at strategic moments by Goldman Sachs for 6 years and only three weeks after The Café opened for business. During this entire time, no one outside the GATA camp has reported on this blatant routine by one particular firm. Like Aesop stated when it comes to thieves, "the great ones are appointed to office." Ex-CEO of Goldman Sachs, John Corzine, is now Senator Corzine representing the noble state of New Jersey.

Goldman Sach’s selling, along with its allies, was enough to peter out the gold rally. Considering the magnitude of the dollar sell-off and euro rally, today’s positive day left a very unsatisfying taste. The euro has gone up 1.20 during the last two US trading sessions and gold has gone down $3.10. However, the floor was very satisfied with the close.

The gold open interest fell 3958 contracts to 256,711 as the specs exit the gold market right on cue and as expected – their pockets picked by the cabal for around the 50th time in a row.

Silver continued to purge some of its last holdout specs. As a result, while it turned around after staring at $6, it could not close higher for the session. There was just too much spec pressure late in the day.

This market is SOLD OUT!