Beiträge von ThaiGuru

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    May 26 - Gold $388.10 down 10 cents - Silver $6.04 down 2 cents


    Early Gold Surge Crushed By Cabal/HUI Up 9 In Row


    "More than any time in history, Mankind faces a crossroads.


    One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness,
    The other to total extinction.



    Let us pray that we have the wisdom to choose correctly"
    -Woody Allen


    Surprisingly, gold came in very firm, quickly running up almost $4 on the day. However, as always, it gradually sold off after the first half hour/hour, this time into the 9:30 AM OTC options expiry. Also, as often is the case, Goldman Sachs was the designated capper for The Gold Cartel this morning, putting out their "DO NOT PASS GO" sign. Once that sign went up, gold was finished, down she went. Wonder how long it will be before The Gold Cartel is forced to let bullion trade like a normal market – having gold surge in the first 60 minutes, set back, then go and make new highs, closing $10 higher for the trading session?


    Perhaps as a result of renewed terrorists threats, gold was very firm in the early going before news came out which was all dollar bearish, gold bullish and stock market bearish. Here it is:


    May 26 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. orders for durable goods fell 2.9 percent in April after two consecutive gains, still keeping demand at a level that supports growth in manufacturing, a government report showed. A drop in bookings for commercial aircraft and automobiles led the decline.
    Orders for products made to last at least three years decreased in value to $191.3 billion after jumping 5.7 percent in March and 3.9 percent in February, the Commerce Department said in Washington. Excluding transportation equipment, orders fell 2.1 percent, the first drop in five months, after a 6.3 percent rise. Compared with a year earlier, all orders rose 12.4 percent.


    May 26 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. sales of new houses fell 11.8 percent in April to the slowest pace in five months as mortgage rates rose.
    Some 1.093 million new single-family homes were sold last month at an annual rate, compared with a record 1.239 million in March, the Commerce Department said in Washington. Sales of 1.085 million in 2003 made it the best year ever.
    Higher finance costs may start to slow the pace of new-home buying, economists say. The average rate on a 30-year mortgage has jumped by almost a percentage point from a nine-month low of 5.38 percent reached in March as demand for goods and services rose and companies added workers. An improving labor market may help limit the slowdown in housing. –END-


    Both of those numbers were substantial negative surprises. If those numbers weren’t bad enough, the oil inventory numbers surprised also:


    *The DOE was looking for the crude stocks to rise 1.6 million barrels, gasoline to rise 1.6 million barrels and distillates to rise 1.2 million barrels.


    *What they got was crude coming in flat, gasoline falling 700,000 barrels and distillates falling 500,000 barrels.


    Resistance between $390 and $395 proved to be effective today. We need a move through $395 to give gold some serious legs.


    Not much else to bring your way regarding gold. The open interest rose a sizeable 6346 contracts to 252,665, which indicated new spec buying yesterday with the crooks taking the sell side. Same drill today.


    Silver came in higher and then drifted off, looking to fill the gap it left yesterday. It may have in the futures pits, missing by only a penny in the cash market. The silver open interest fell 25 contracts to 88,330.


    Time to watch the silver warehouse stocks. They are finally below 120 million ounces, having dropped around 750,000 ounces the past two days.


    A very sharp and successful floor silver trader, one who trades on the technicals, says if silver trades on the upside tomorrow at any time, it should take out key resistance at $6.17, basis the July contract and then head for $7.

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    http://news.goldseek.com/Inter…Forecaster/1085602575.php


    International Forecaster May, 2004 (#4) - Precious Metals & More


    By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster


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    US MARKETS


    As the Fed creates massive amounts of aggregates, the administration creates ever-larger deficits daily. There is no sign that either the Fed or the Bush neocons are going to ease up anytime soon. Irrespective of government statements, inflation is running at about 9.5%. Currently inflation is rising faster than interest rates and we expect that to continue as long as the Fed massively feeds the system and Mr. Bush and Congress create newer and bigger deficits. This is similar to the way it began in the late 1960s at the beginning of gold’s last great run. Today we have record budget and current account deficits that dwarf those of that period. Congress and the administration have no inclination to in any way cut spending and on top of that, we have perpetual war for perpetual peace. The stock market will top out finally this fall as the prolonged bear market rally is completed. If the Fed continues its madness as it did in the 1970s then interest rates could again reach a Fed fund level of 16.39%. We are currently at 1%. Today we have a nation that although they won’t admit it, lives in fear of its government. Where else today can you say something misinterpreted by an employer at an airport and be prosecuted? Where else can you have your phone tapped for writing the IF? Only in America. These are not universal values; these are the trappings of a police state. If you put all the above together you come up with a crisis and that is where we are headed.


    Exporting dollars is becoming a major American industry; $30 billion goes to Latin America every year and of that $14.5 billion goes to Mexico. Fifty percent of those sending funds home make $20,000 or less a year, but send home 10% of their income.


    The use of drugs to control attention deficit and hyperactivity problems in preschool children jumped 49% in the past three years. All children on ADHD drugs increased by 23% in children under five. The money being spent on ADHD is eclipsing spending on drugs for asthma and infections. At the same time, the use of antibiotics grew only 4.3%, while the use of antidepressants rose 21% and the use of medicines for autism and other conduct disorders jumped 71%. The most eye-popping change was a 369% increase in spending on ADHD drugs for children under five. Their parents are too lazy to deal with normal child behavior. New drugs, such as Strattera, Adderall and Concerta only require one dose in the morning and the kids are like zombies all day. It is estimated that almost 10% of American children are being poisoned with these drugs just so teachers won’t have to bother to correct them. By the time they are 10-15 years old they are ready for suicide.


    A federal advisory committee says Congress should pass laws to protect the civil liberties of Americans when the government sifts through computer records and data files for information about terrorists. A better idea of course is to terminate Patriot Acts I & II. Currently agencies are collecting and using personally identifiable information on persons for national security and law enforcement purposes. The programs are mirror images of the Pentagon program named, Total Information Awareness, now euphemistically known as, Terrorism Information Awareness, which makes each citizen a potential terrorist suspect. In data mining our government has no intention of protecting individual privacy. The only solution is to do away with Patriot Acts I & II. If we are going to have these Acts then Congress must pass legislation protecting our rights and demand court orders for data mining, search and seizure. What is happening is that anyone who speaks or writes negatively about government is subject to harassment and entrapment. We know because government has already tried unsuccessfully to use it against us.


    In our latest insanity, the US Postal Service is honoring EID Muslim holiday season with a commemorative first-class holiday postage stamp. The stamp should be boycotted.


    Get ready for the administration to blame the cost of energy for the fading of the recovery. The Fed and the Bush neocons were too early in their timing. They have nothing for an encore except not raising interest rates and the Fed pumping $2 to $3 trillion into the economy.


    The Bush neocons are well on their way to dismantling the anti-trust laws in our country. Mergers and acquisitions abound as the consolidation of companies continues leading to more and more concentration. Any strong company is fair game for internationalist corporatist interests. The profitable assets are removed, the carcass sold off and its employees left without jobs. Retirement funds and benefits are cut or lost, as is present and future healthcare. The mergers in telecommunications and the media are affected to kill the chance of any real news being reported. Halliburton, Bechtel and the Carlyle Group are running our country. There is no integrity left in journalism and anyone who reports the truth is hounded into silence. Today America is a scary place and we don’t see any improvement anytime soon.


    Surprisingly Alan Greenspan is going to stay as Chairman of the Fed, as he was re-nominated by George W. Bush.


    Due to offshoring and lower vehicle sales, major auto manufacturers are forcing contract houses to take a near 50% cut in billing rates or lose the business. New year will be a disastrous year for auto producers.


    GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM, PALLADIUM AND DIAMONDS


    The CFTC has found no evidence of manipulation of silver futures prices, as alleged by some investors. Of course, the evidence of manipulation is overwhelming. The commission had received over 500 letters and e-mails alleging a handful of market makers had colluded to suppress prices. The CFTC says supplies from mines and recycled scrap fell short of demand for the 15th straight year, with the gap widening to 72 million ounces.


    The Senate passed legislation last week 95-3 and sent it to the House, which would lower the capital gains tax on precious metals from 28 to 20%. It applies to collectibles such as gold, silver, platinum and palladium. This puts these metals on the same tax plain as stocks and bonds.


    JP Morgan Chase, Citibank and HSBC hold 99% of the US derivatives contracts for gold and other precious metals. JPM has 53.4%, Citibank 21.1% and HSBC 25.4%. In the last year, HSBC has increased their positions by 18.3%. All three banks represent the black nobility of Europe, the Illuminated ones. JPM has $41 billion worth of gold derivatives, at $390 an ounce, 105.4 million ounces of gold. The total value of contracts for the three banks is over $81 billion. About half, $40.2 billion, or 187 million ounces, which is 3,235 tons has one 1-year maturities or less. This kind of concentration is unheard of. If three brokers had these kinds of stock positions they would be put out of business. This is market manipulation, plain and simple.


    You buy stocks when nobody wants them. A survey by MBH Commodity for gold dropped to under 10% bulls on a 10-day basis, a record low number of bulls for the 17 years of the survey’s history. A correction from $420 to $375 is just a correction, not a collapse. It happens in all markets. In the shares it’s way over done. Most of the major of middle-tier producers are down 25-30% and exploration stocks are off 50-80%. Gold shares are purchased for the long haul. If you bought near the top, buy more. It is only a matter of time before the shares go back up as fast as they came down.


    More for subscribers....

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    http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?t…id=4985000&action=article


    Breaking news


    2004-05-26 21:34 GMT:


    Mining shares climb; Bema posts study results


    SAN FRANCISCO (AFX) -- Shares of metals mining companies closed mainly higher, marking a four-session winning streak among the industry's indexes. The Amex Gold Bugs Index climbed 1.1 percent to close at 198.98, a fresh one-month high, with a 3.3 percent climb in shares of Coeur d'Alene Mines leading the gains. Shares of Bema Gold closed at $2.54, up 0.8 percent ahead of the results of a study on a key project in Russia. After the market closed, the Vancouver-based miner said the results of a preliminary economic assessment of the Kupol gold and silver project shows that the project "can be developed as a high grade, low cost gold and silver mine with robust project economics." This story was supplied by CBSMarketWatch. For further information see http://www.cbsmarketwatch.com

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    http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/0,1518,301636,00.html


    TERRORANGST IN DEN USA


    Ashcroft präsentiert neue Fahndungsliste


    Die US-Regierung befürchtet, dass die Qaida für die kommenden Monate einen großen Anschlag auf amerikanischem Boden plant. Justizminister Ashcroft und FBI-Chef Mueller haben jetzt eine Liste von sieben Terrorverdächtigen vorgestellt, die eine "klare und aktuelle Gefahr" für das Land darstellten.


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    Washington - Die Bedrohung sei durch verlässliche Informationen der Geheimdienste belegt, sagte Ashcroft am Abend in Washington. Das Terrornetzwerk al-Qaida sei "fast bereit" sei, die Vereinigten Staaten anzugreifen.


    Zitat

    "Diese beunruhigenden Erkenntnisse deuten auf eine spezielle Absicht hin, die USA hart zu treffen."


    Der Direktor des Bundeskriminalamtes FBI, Robert Mueller, nannte namentlich sieben mutmaßliche Terroristen. Diese Männer seien bewaffnet und gefährlich.


    Eine Erhöhung der nationalen Alarmbereitschaft wurde indes nicht angekündigt. Mueller sprach von einer "erhöhten Bedrohung für Einrichtungen der USA in der ganzen Welt". Es sei jedoch nicht klar, welche Form die Bedrohung annehmen werde. Ashcroft fügte hinzu, der Rückzug der spanischen Truppen aus dem Irak nach den Anschlägen vom 11. März in Madrid könne die Qaida dazu verleiten zu versuchen, Einfluss auf die US-Politik zu nehmen.


    In den kommenden Monaten stehen in den USA mehrere öffentliche und politische Großereignisse an, angefangen mit der Einweihung des neuen Mahnmals für den Zweiten Weltkrieg in Washington am kommenden Samstag. Im Juni findet im Staat Georgia das G8-Gipfeltreffen der sieben größten Industriestaaten und Russlands statt, es folgen im Juli der Parteitag der Demokraten in Boston und im August der Parteitag der Republikaner in New York. Im November findet die Präsidentschaftswahl statt.


    Ein ranghoher Antiterrorexperte hatte zuvor bereits gesagt, die US-Behörden befürchteten für diesen Sommer einen größeren Terroranschlag. Der Regierung lägen Geheimdienstinformationen vor, wonach sich Qaida-Mitglieder oder andere Terroristen bereits in den USA befänden und den Anschlag vorbereiteten. Angaben über Zeitpunkt, Ort oder Methode des geplanten Anschlags gebe es nicht. Es seien aber die beunruhigendsten Informationen seit den Anschlägen vom 11. September 2001. Der Experte bezeichnete die Informationen als äußerst glaubwürdig. Größte Sorge der Regierung ist nach Angaben des Gewährsmanns, dass die Terroristen im Besitz einer biologischen, chemischen oder atomaren Waffe sein könnten.


    Der Minister für Heimatschutz, Tom Ridge, bestätigte heute im Fernsehsender NBC, dass sich in den vergangenen Wochen die Berichte über die Möglichkeit eines Anschlags auf die USA gehäuft hätten. Die Informationen bewegten sich allerdings im Rahmen dessen, was in den vergangenen Jahren üblich gewesen sei, betonte Ridge.


    Das FBI richtete eine Arbeitsgruppe ein, die sich mit den Informationen befassen soll. Damit soll vor allem verhindert werden, dass Hinweise auf Terroranschläge nicht beachtet werden, wie dies vor dem 11. September der Fall war.


    Die Äußerungen der Minister rücken den Kampf gegen den Terrorismus wieder in den Blickpunkt der Öffentlichkeit, den US-Präsident George W. Bush zu einem seiner zentralen Wahlkampfthemen gemacht hat. Zuletzt waren Bushs Umfragewerte vor dem Hintergrund von andauernden Kämpfen in Irak und Foltervorwürfen gegen US-Soldaten auf einen Tiefpunkt gefallen.


    Curt Anderson, AP

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    http://www.morningstar.ca/glob…eid=ArticleID520200415501


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    Gold still glitters


    by Steven G. Kelman | 26 May 04 |


    Short-term indicators point to higher price for bullion.


    One thing is certain about gold: The price will be volatile.


    Of course some gold bugs will flip that statement and argue that it is the value of currency that is volatile and that gold has a relatively constant purchasing power.


    Supposedly a measure of purchasing power of an ounce of gold over the centuries has been the price of a top quality man's suit. I don't know what Christopher Columbus paid for his outfits but I seem to remember that I paid a lot more than $35 for a decent suit in the late 1960s when the gold price was still fixed at US$35 an ounce. I definitely paid less than $850 for a suit in early 1980 when speculators propelled bullion to a record level in U.S. dollar terms.


    weiter....

    gogh


    Meine Abelle habe ich Harmonie, wenn auch sehr, sehr ungern abgegeben.


    Gekauft habe ich Abelle selber nie. Stammen ursprünglich noch von meinen Aurora Gold Aktien. Diese Investition in Aurora Gold, eine meiner früheren Kaufsempfehlungen, hat sich mit weit über 400% in ca. 3 Jahren, recht gut bezahlt gemacht. Was ich mit dem Erlös kaufen werde, nächste Woche sollte der Batzen eintreffen, weiss ich auch schon.


    Es werden weitere SAMEX MINING SMXMF.OB, und FIRST SILVER Toronto: FSR.TO ins Portefeuille genommen.


    Vielleicht reichts auch noch dafür um einige St. Barbara zu kaufen.


    Wenn es donnert, und kracht, und niemand die SBM haben will, ist vielleicht gerade der Zeitpunkt um vorsichtig einzusteigen.

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    http://www.federalobserver.com/archive.php?aid=7849


    May 26, 2004 Vol. 04, No. 146


    Elite Bankers Now Pulling Plug On US Economy & Currency!


    By Senator Tim Ferguson - Ferguson Report


    Reprinted from Usury, Inc.


    I have warned for a long time that the Federal Reserve is planning to destroy the U.S. economy by: printing the U.S. dollar in exponentially riskier quantities until it blows off the charts and crashes, and by easing credit and rates until the average individual and corporate debt loads are so enormous that the resulting massive distortions in the economy suddenly bring on an economic heart attack, leaving no possibility of a short or even medium-term recovery. That day is here!


    weiter....

    Aus einer eher unerwarteten Richtung


    Der Dollar Dominanz droht Ungemach!


    Gruss


    ThaiGuru



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    http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040526/energy_eu_1.html


    Reuters


    EU says switch oil from dollar to currency basket


    Wednesday May 26, 6:03 am ET


    BRUSSELS, May 26 (Reuters) - World oil trade should be switched to a basket of currencies, including the euro, rather than be priced in dollars only, the European Commission said on Wednesday.


    "If the oil price should be related to a value it should be a consequence of a basket of currencies involving the main oil consumption (nations)," Energy Commissioner Loyola de Palacio told reporters after a news conference.

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    http://www.mineweb.net/fast_news/325271.htm


    Barclays gets gold fix seat


    By: Gareth Tredway


    Posted: '26-MAY-04 12:40' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004


    Barclays Capital, the Barclays Bank investment banking division, has bought the seat in the London Gold Market Fixing, vacated by NM Rothschild and Sons just over a month ago, says Reuters.


    The amount paid for the seat was not disclosed, but analysts told the newservice that seats have been bought in the past for around £1 million. HSBC, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank and Scotia-Mocatta hold the other four seats.


    Since Rothschild’s withdrawal on April 16, after chairing the fix for 84 years, it has gone through some radical changes. The fixing is now done twice daily over the telephone by the member firms. Previously, members would gather in the London offices to fix the gold price. The chairmanship will also be rotated annually, starting with Scotia-Mocatta from May 5.

    gogh


    Habe selbst keine St. Barbara Mining Aktien, und befasse mich auch sehr wenig mit dieser Firma. Einer Meldung vom 24. Mai, 2004 nach findet gerade ein Machtkampf um die Ablösung des erfolglosen Managements bei St Barbara Mining statt. Der Hauptaktionär Resource Capital Funds betreibt die Ablösung von CEO Miller, unter dem *SBM* in den vergangenen 2 Jahren zur am schlechtesten performenden Gold Minen Aktie an der australischen Börse geworden ist.


    Heute ist SBM in Australien etwas gestiegen.


    Gruss


    ThaiGuru


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    http://www.theage.com.au/artic…/05/23/1085250866693.html


    Calls for St Barbara Mines shake-up


    http://www.theage.com.au/artic…/05/23/1085250866693.html

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    http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1085537610.php


    China Controls Silver


    By: Theodore Butler

    First, a quick word on the Commitments of Traders (COT) - it’s spectacular. The latest COT shows the total COMEX dealer net short position in silver has been reduced by 33,000 futures contracts (165 million ounces) on the wolf pack engineered sell-off, from over $8/oz. Gold's COTs show a breathtaking reduction of 140,000 contracts on the engineered $50 decline. The brain-dead tech funds served as the accommodating patsies, once again. Now the decks appear to have been cleared for a liftoff to a powerful rally.


    I hope there is not the slightest doubt in anyone's mind as to why we sold off so sharply. This downward move occurred for one reason and one reason only - to allow the dealers to cover as many of their short positions as possible. The good news is that they did in spades. As such, the market structure now allows for a rally of significant proportions. The mother of buy signals in silver is alive and well. Gold and copper look poised for a dramatic up move as well.


    My analysis of the silver market revolves principally around using the published statistics and facts issued by the most accepted sources, and then using that data to reach my own conclusions. While I admit that my conclusions are generally at odds with most conventional analysts, very rarely will you hear me dispute the underlying facts and statistics published by industry professionals and insiders. Please keep that in mind in the following discussion.


    As you know, there has been significant information recently on the flow of silver from the government of China's central bank, the People's Bank of China (PBOC). The leading silver statistical research organizations, GFMS and CPM, both report on the amount of the sales of government owned silver by the PBOC, acknowledging that it is this silver that principally satisfied the deficit since 1999. Even the CFTC, in their recent 9 page response denying a silver manipulation, confirmed GFMS' statement that China sold large quantities of government owned silver.


    On page 5 of the recently released 2003 annual report from Pan American Silver (whose chairman is the recent past president of the Silver Institute), the company states that more than 300 million ounces of silver have been sold from official Chinese government holdings since 1999. I accept and believe to be true all these statements from these industry insiders. What I don't accept is the nonchalance and ho-hum reaction to this government selling by China. Clearly this selling is dumping, in addition to being manipulative to silver prices. Without this official government selling from China, the silver would have had to come from free market inventories, and only at sharply higher prices. In effect, the Chinese central bank is controlling and determining the price of silver.


    But there is no legitimate economic explanation for the Chinese government to participate in the manipulation of silver. Only uneconomic explanations are plausible. While I don't want to dwell on all the uneconomic possibilities, I will say that I don't think their selling of silver is completely understood by them, certainly not at the highest levels of government. I think it is highly likely that the People’s Bank of China has been hoodwinked into selling their silver, much as the US Government was tricked into disposing of its silver stockpile over the past 60 years. Tricking governments out of silver is a recurring historical fact.


    The sad fact is that due to China's certain long term economic growth, it won't be long until it must import silver at any price for industrial consumption. Having sold silver for the past five years at under $5/oz, it would not surprise me to see China pay 10 and 20 times that amount to buy in the future. And I'm sure that China is being used by the silver wolf pack at the COMEX, to give their short sales quasi-legitimacy.


    But one day soon, China will sell government silver no more, either because they run out, or wake up to the deception that has been foisted on them. When that occurs, there will be no way to meet the deficit, except from free market supplies at shockingly higher prices. The enclosed letter should be self-explanatory.




    May 25, 2004


    The Honorable Zhou Xiaochuan


    Governor


    The People's Bank of China


    No. 32 Chengfang Street


    Xi Cheng District


    Beijing, China


    Post Code 100800


    Dear Governor Xiaochuan:


    I write to alert you to a grave economic harm that threatens not only the citizens of your nation, but also many world citizens. The harm comes from the damage to the world's silver producers and consumers caused by your Bank's policy of selling or leasing official government silver inventories.


    For many years, the silver market has operated in a structural deficit, with consumption outpacing production, necessitating the draw down of world inventories in order to balance. According to respected international research firms, and confirmed by leading silver industry officials, and even the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, your Bank has provided the vast majority of the inventories satisfying the silver deficit. It has been reported that your bank has sold or leased more than 300 million ounces of silver, since 1999.


    Without the silver selling/leasing from your Bank, silver prices would have been much higher, since there were no other inventories available to be sold at the very depressed prices of the past five years. In fact, the People's Bank of China's selling has been below the world marginal cost of production, and has harmed producers of silver. This selling appears to meet the criteria for being classified as dumping.


    Ironically, since silver is such a vital industrial material, it is likely that your country will, at some point, be buying silver for many times the price you are selling it at. I can think of no legitimate economic reason for your country to dispose of a valuable asset that was accumulated over many hundreds of years, in such a manner.


    There is no doubt in my mind that your country was tricked into selling your silver at depressed prices, much like my country, the US, was also deceived into dumping billions of ounces. I know that your Bank's silver sales were not done with your full knowledge or approval. For the sake of your citizens I hope you still have a good amount of their silver remaining, unlike the US, which has none left.


    If you investigate this matter, I'm sure you will find large international financial institutions behind the fire sale of your country's silver. I think you will perform a great service to your citizens if you look into and then terminate the unnecessary and uneconomic disposal of one of your country's most valuable assets, at give-away prices.


    Respectfully yours,


    Ted Butler



    -- Posted 25 May, 2004


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