Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Aus einer eher unerwarteten Richtung

Der Dollar Dominanz droht Ungemach!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

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http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040526/energy_eu_1.html

Reuters

EU says switch oil from dollar to currency basket

Wednesday May 26, 6:03 am ET

BRUSSELS, May 26 (Reuters) - World oil trade should be switched to a basket of currencies, including the euro, rather than be priced in dollars only, the European Commission said on Wednesday.

"If the oil price should be related to a value it should be a consequence of a basket of currencies involving the main oil consumption (nations)," Energy Commissioner Loyola de Palacio told reporters after a news conference.

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http://www.federalobserver.com/archive.php?aid=7849

May 26, 2004 Vol. 04, No. 146

Elite Bankers Now Pulling Plug On US Economy & Currency!

By Senator Tim Ferguson - Ferguson Report

Reprinted from Usury, Inc.

I have warned for a long time that the Federal Reserve is planning to destroy the U.S. economy by: printing the U.S. dollar in exponentially riskier quantities until it blows off the charts and crashes, and by easing credit and rates until the average individual and corporate debt loads are so enormous that the resulting massive distortions in the economy suddenly bring on an economic heart attack, leaving no possibility of a short or even medium-term recovery. That day is here!

weiter....

gogh

Meine Abelle habe ich Harmonie, wenn auch sehr, sehr ungern abgegeben.

Gekauft habe ich Abelle selber nie. Stammen ursprünglich noch von meinen Aurora Gold Aktien. Diese Investition in Aurora Gold, eine meiner früheren Kaufsempfehlungen, hat sich mit weit über 400% in ca. 3 Jahren, recht gut bezahlt gemacht. Was ich mit dem Erlös kaufen werde, nächste Woche sollte der Batzen eintreffen, weiss ich auch schon.

Es werden weitere SAMEX MINING SMXMF.OB, und FIRST SILVER Toronto: FSR.TO ins Portefeuille genommen.

Vielleicht reichts auch noch dafür um einige St. Barbara zu kaufen.

Wenn es donnert, und kracht, und niemand die SBM haben will, ist vielleicht gerade der Zeitpunkt um vorsichtig einzusteigen.

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http://www.morningstar.ca/glob…eid=ArticleID520200415501

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Gold still glitters

by Steven G. Kelman | 26 May 04 |

Short-term indicators point to higher price for bullion.

One thing is certain about gold: The price will be volatile.

Of course some gold bugs will flip that statement and argue that it is the value of currency that is volatile and that gold has a relatively constant purchasing power.

Supposedly a measure of purchasing power of an ounce of gold over the centuries has been the price of a top quality man's suit. I don't know what Christopher Columbus paid for his outfits but I seem to remember that I paid a lot more than $35 for a decent suit in the late 1960s when the gold price was still fixed at US$35 an ounce. I definitely paid less than $850 for a suit in early 1980 when speculators propelled bullion to a record level in U.S. dollar terms.

weiter....

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AngloGold Ashanti says Guinea halts Siguiri mining

Wednesday May 26, 3:32 PM EDT

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http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/n…&alias=/alias/money/cm/nw

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http://www.reuters.de/newsPack…oryID=517856&section=news

Teures Benzin trübt Stimmung der Verbraucher in Deutschland

Mittwoch 26 Mai, 2004 14:31 CET

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http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/0,1518,301636,00.html

TERRORANGST IN DEN USA

Ashcroft präsentiert neue Fahndungsliste

Die US-Regierung befürchtet, dass die Qaida für die kommenden Monate einen großen Anschlag auf amerikanischem Boden plant. Justizminister Ashcroft und FBI-Chef Mueller haben jetzt eine Liste von sieben Terrorverdächtigen vorgestellt, die eine "klare und aktuelle Gefahr" für das Land darstellten.

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Washington - Die Bedrohung sei durch verlässliche Informationen der Geheimdienste belegt, sagte Ashcroft am Abend in Washington. Das Terrornetzwerk al-Qaida sei "fast bereit" sei, die Vereinigten Staaten anzugreifen.

Zitat

"Diese beunruhigenden Erkenntnisse deuten auf eine spezielle Absicht hin, die USA hart zu treffen."

Der Direktor des Bundeskriminalamtes FBI, Robert Mueller, nannte namentlich sieben mutmaßliche Terroristen. Diese Männer seien bewaffnet und gefährlich.

Eine Erhöhung der nationalen Alarmbereitschaft wurde indes nicht angekündigt. Mueller sprach von einer "erhöhten Bedrohung für Einrichtungen der USA in der ganzen Welt". Es sei jedoch nicht klar, welche Form die Bedrohung annehmen werde. Ashcroft fügte hinzu, der Rückzug der spanischen Truppen aus dem Irak nach den Anschlägen vom 11. März in Madrid könne die Qaida dazu verleiten zu versuchen, Einfluss auf die US-Politik zu nehmen.

In den kommenden Monaten stehen in den USA mehrere öffentliche und politische Großereignisse an, angefangen mit der Einweihung des neuen Mahnmals für den Zweiten Weltkrieg in Washington am kommenden Samstag. Im Juni findet im Staat Georgia das G8-Gipfeltreffen der sieben größten Industriestaaten und Russlands statt, es folgen im Juli der Parteitag der Demokraten in Boston und im August der Parteitag der Republikaner in New York. Im November findet die Präsidentschaftswahl statt.

Ein ranghoher Antiterrorexperte hatte zuvor bereits gesagt, die US-Behörden befürchteten für diesen Sommer einen größeren Terroranschlag. Der Regierung lägen Geheimdienstinformationen vor, wonach sich Qaida-Mitglieder oder andere Terroristen bereits in den USA befänden und den Anschlag vorbereiteten. Angaben über Zeitpunkt, Ort oder Methode des geplanten Anschlags gebe es nicht. Es seien aber die beunruhigendsten Informationen seit den Anschlägen vom 11. September 2001. Der Experte bezeichnete die Informationen als äußerst glaubwürdig. Größte Sorge der Regierung ist nach Angaben des Gewährsmanns, dass die Terroristen im Besitz einer biologischen, chemischen oder atomaren Waffe sein könnten.

Der Minister für Heimatschutz, Tom Ridge, bestätigte heute im Fernsehsender NBC, dass sich in den vergangenen Wochen die Berichte über die Möglichkeit eines Anschlags auf die USA gehäuft hätten. Die Informationen bewegten sich allerdings im Rahmen dessen, was in den vergangenen Jahren üblich gewesen sei, betonte Ridge.

Das FBI richtete eine Arbeitsgruppe ein, die sich mit den Informationen befassen soll. Damit soll vor allem verhindert werden, dass Hinweise auf Terroranschläge nicht beachtet werden, wie dies vor dem 11. September der Fall war.

Die Äußerungen der Minister rücken den Kampf gegen den Terrorismus wieder in den Blickpunkt der Öffentlichkeit, den US-Präsident George W. Bush zu einem seiner zentralen Wahlkampfthemen gemacht hat. Zuletzt waren Bushs Umfragewerte vor dem Hintergrund von andauernden Kämpfen in Irak und Foltervorwürfen gegen US-Soldaten auf einen Tiefpunkt gefallen.

Curt Anderson, AP

Zitat

Auch die Bank of America selbst sowie die Revisionsgesellschaften Grant Thronton und Deloitte & Touche sollen angeklagt werden. Die Vorwürfe reichen von Kursmanipulation über die Weitergabe falscher Informationen bis hin zur Beihilfe zum betrügerischen Bankrott.

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,301600,00.html

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http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?t…id=4985000&action=article

Breaking news

2004-05-26 21:34 GMT:

Mining shares climb; Bema posts study results

SAN FRANCISCO (AFX) -- Shares of metals mining companies closed mainly higher, marking a four-session winning streak among the industry's indexes. The Amex Gold Bugs Index climbed 1.1 percent to close at 198.98, a fresh one-month high, with a 3.3 percent climb in shares of Coeur d'Alene Mines leading the gains. Shares of Bema Gold closed at $2.54, up 0.8 percent ahead of the results of a study on a key project in Russia. After the market closed, the Vancouver-based miner said the results of a preliminary economic assessment of the Kupol gold and silver project shows that the project "can be developed as a high grade, low cost gold and silver mine with robust project economics." This story was supplied by CBSMarketWatch. For further information see http://www.cbsmarketwatch.com

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http://news.goldseek.com/Inter…Forecaster/1085602575.php

International Forecaster May, 2004 (#4) - Precious Metals & More

By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster

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US MARKETS

As the Fed creates massive amounts of aggregates, the administration creates ever-larger deficits daily. There is no sign that either the Fed or the Bush neocons are going to ease up anytime soon. Irrespective of government statements, inflation is running at about 9.5%. Currently inflation is rising faster than interest rates and we expect that to continue as long as the Fed massively feeds the system and Mr. Bush and Congress create newer and bigger deficits. This is similar to the way it began in the late 1960s at the beginning of gold’s last great run. Today we have record budget and current account deficits that dwarf those of that period. Congress and the administration have no inclination to in any way cut spending and on top of that, we have perpetual war for perpetual peace. The stock market will top out finally this fall as the prolonged bear market rally is completed. If the Fed continues its madness as it did in the 1970s then interest rates could again reach a Fed fund level of 16.39%. We are currently at 1%. Today we have a nation that although they won’t admit it, lives in fear of its government. Where else today can you say something misinterpreted by an employer at an airport and be prosecuted? Where else can you have your phone tapped for writing the IF? Only in America. These are not universal values; these are the trappings of a police state. If you put all the above together you come up with a crisis and that is where we are headed.

Exporting dollars is becoming a major American industry; $30 billion goes to Latin America every year and of that $14.5 billion goes to Mexico. Fifty percent of those sending funds home make $20,000 or less a year, but send home 10% of their income.

The use of drugs to control attention deficit and hyperactivity problems in preschool children jumped 49% in the past three years. All children on ADHD drugs increased by 23% in children under five. The money being spent on ADHD is eclipsing spending on drugs for asthma and infections. At the same time, the use of antibiotics grew only 4.3%, while the use of antidepressants rose 21% and the use of medicines for autism and other conduct disorders jumped 71%. The most eye-popping change was a 369% increase in spending on ADHD drugs for children under five. Their parents are too lazy to deal with normal child behavior. New drugs, such as Strattera, Adderall and Concerta only require one dose in the morning and the kids are like zombies all day. It is estimated that almost 10% of American children are being poisoned with these drugs just so teachers won’t have to bother to correct them. By the time they are 10-15 years old they are ready for suicide.

A federal advisory committee says Congress should pass laws to protect the civil liberties of Americans when the government sifts through computer records and data files for information about terrorists. A better idea of course is to terminate Patriot Acts I & II. Currently agencies are collecting and using personally identifiable information on persons for national security and law enforcement purposes. The programs are mirror images of the Pentagon program named, Total Information Awareness, now euphemistically known as, Terrorism Information Awareness, which makes each citizen a potential terrorist suspect. In data mining our government has no intention of protecting individual privacy. The only solution is to do away with Patriot Acts I & II. If we are going to have these Acts then Congress must pass legislation protecting our rights and demand court orders for data mining, search and seizure. What is happening is that anyone who speaks or writes negatively about government is subject to harassment and entrapment. We know because government has already tried unsuccessfully to use it against us.

In our latest insanity, the US Postal Service is honoring EID Muslim holiday season with a commemorative first-class holiday postage stamp. The stamp should be boycotted.

Get ready for the administration to blame the cost of energy for the fading of the recovery. The Fed and the Bush neocons were too early in their timing. They have nothing for an encore except not raising interest rates and the Fed pumping $2 to $3 trillion into the economy.

The Bush neocons are well on their way to dismantling the anti-trust laws in our country. Mergers and acquisitions abound as the consolidation of companies continues leading to more and more concentration. Any strong company is fair game for internationalist corporatist interests. The profitable assets are removed, the carcass sold off and its employees left without jobs. Retirement funds and benefits are cut or lost, as is present and future healthcare. The mergers in telecommunications and the media are affected to kill the chance of any real news being reported. Halliburton, Bechtel and the Carlyle Group are running our country. There is no integrity left in journalism and anyone who reports the truth is hounded into silence. Today America is a scary place and we don’t see any improvement anytime soon.

Surprisingly Alan Greenspan is going to stay as Chairman of the Fed, as he was re-nominated by George W. Bush.

Due to offshoring and lower vehicle sales, major auto manufacturers are forcing contract houses to take a near 50% cut in billing rates or lose the business. New year will be a disastrous year for auto producers.

GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM, PALLADIUM AND DIAMONDS

The CFTC has found no evidence of manipulation of silver futures prices, as alleged by some investors. Of course, the evidence of manipulation is overwhelming. The commission had received over 500 letters and e-mails alleging a handful of market makers had colluded to suppress prices. The CFTC says supplies from mines and recycled scrap fell short of demand for the 15th straight year, with the gap widening to 72 million ounces.

The Senate passed legislation last week 95-3 and sent it to the House, which would lower the capital gains tax on precious metals from 28 to 20%. It applies to collectibles such as gold, silver, platinum and palladium. This puts these metals on the same tax plain as stocks and bonds.

JP Morgan Chase, Citibank and HSBC hold 99% of the US derivatives contracts for gold and other precious metals. JPM has 53.4%, Citibank 21.1% and HSBC 25.4%. In the last year, HSBC has increased their positions by 18.3%. All three banks represent the black nobility of Europe, the Illuminated ones. JPM has $41 billion worth of gold derivatives, at $390 an ounce, 105.4 million ounces of gold. The total value of contracts for the three banks is over $81 billion. About half, $40.2 billion, or 187 million ounces, which is 3,235 tons has one 1-year maturities or less. This kind of concentration is unheard of. If three brokers had these kinds of stock positions they would be put out of business. This is market manipulation, plain and simple.

You buy stocks when nobody wants them. A survey by MBH Commodity for gold dropped to under 10% bulls on a 10-day basis, a record low number of bulls for the 17 years of the survey’s history. A correction from $420 to $375 is just a correction, not a collapse. It happens in all markets. In the shares it’s way over done. Most of the major of middle-tier producers are down 25-30% and exploration stocks are off 50-80%. Gold shares are purchased for the long haul. If you bought near the top, buy more. It is only a matter of time before the shares go back up as fast as they came down.

More for subscribers....

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May 26 - Gold $388.10 down 10 cents - Silver $6.04 down 2 cents

Early Gold Surge Crushed By Cabal/HUI Up 9 In Row

"More than any time in history, Mankind faces a crossroads.

One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness,
The other to total extinction.

Let us pray that we have the wisdom to choose correctly"
-Woody Allen

Surprisingly, gold came in very firm, quickly running up almost $4 on the day. However, as always, it gradually sold off after the first half hour/hour, this time into the 9:30 AM OTC options expiry. Also, as often is the case, Goldman Sachs was the designated capper for The Gold Cartel this morning, putting out their "DO NOT PASS GO" sign. Once that sign went up, gold was finished, down she went. Wonder how long it will be before The Gold Cartel is forced to let bullion trade like a normal market – having gold surge in the first 60 minutes, set back, then go and make new highs, closing $10 higher for the trading session?

Perhaps as a result of renewed terrorists threats, gold was very firm in the early going before news came out which was all dollar bearish, gold bullish and stock market bearish. Here it is:

May 26 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. orders for durable goods fell 2.9 percent in April after two consecutive gains, still keeping demand at a level that supports growth in manufacturing, a government report showed. A drop in bookings for commercial aircraft and automobiles led the decline.
Orders for products made to last at least three years decreased in value to $191.3 billion after jumping 5.7 percent in March and 3.9 percent in February, the Commerce Department said in Washington. Excluding transportation equipment, orders fell 2.1 percent, the first drop in five months, after a 6.3 percent rise. Compared with a year earlier, all orders rose 12.4 percent.

May 26 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. sales of new houses fell 11.8 percent in April to the slowest pace in five months as mortgage rates rose.
Some 1.093 million new single-family homes were sold last month at an annual rate, compared with a record 1.239 million in March, the Commerce Department said in Washington. Sales of 1.085 million in 2003 made it the best year ever.
Higher finance costs may start to slow the pace of new-home buying, economists say. The average rate on a 30-year mortgage has jumped by almost a percentage point from a nine-month low of 5.38 percent reached in March as demand for goods and services rose and companies added workers. An improving labor market may help limit the slowdown in housing. –END-

Both of those numbers were substantial negative surprises. If those numbers weren’t bad enough, the oil inventory numbers surprised also:

*The DOE was looking for the crude stocks to rise 1.6 million barrels, gasoline to rise 1.6 million barrels and distillates to rise 1.2 million barrels.

*What they got was crude coming in flat, gasoline falling 700,000 barrels and distillates falling 500,000 barrels.

Resistance between $390 and $395 proved to be effective today. We need a move through $395 to give gold some serious legs.

Not much else to bring your way regarding gold. The open interest rose a sizeable 6346 contracts to 252,665, which indicated new spec buying yesterday with the crooks taking the sell side. Same drill today.

Silver came in higher and then drifted off, looking to fill the gap it left yesterday. It may have in the futures pits, missing by only a penny in the cash market. The silver open interest fell 25 contracts to 88,330.

Time to watch the silver warehouse stocks. They are finally below 120 million ounces, having dropped around 750,000 ounces the past two days.

A very sharp and successful floor silver trader, one who trades on the technicals, says if silver trades on the upside tomorrow at any time, it should take out key resistance at $6.17, basis the July contract and then head for $7.

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The John Brimelow Report

Only Option expiries? & Important Bianco

Wednesday, May 26, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $4.09, PM $$3.42, with world gold at $388.90 and $390.60. Below legal import point. Clearly the season, the weaker rupee, and the firmer world gold price have had an effect. Confidence amongst the more affluent in India has been badly shaken by the fall of the BJP Government: net foreign sales of Indian shares have been reported every day for three weeks. Presumably at this point this will abate.

Some evidence that other parts of the world buy gold too emerged from Japan’s April import data today: gold imports of 6.8 tonnes were reported, 134% above last year and almost triple the previous month. While small in relation to years past, the steepness of the inflection supports the idea that April’s price slide stimulated widespread purchasing of physical. Reuters quotes a ‘senior official at a Japanese bullion house’ as saying:

Zitat

"In general, demand for gold among retail investors remains strong"

TOCOM itself lost interest in gold on seeing yesterday’s sluggish price action in the West. Volume plummeted 67% to equal only 11,028 Comex lots; open interest slipped the equivalent of 519 Comex lots, and the active contract fell 8 yen. World gold was up 90c above the NY close at the end of the Japanese day. (NY yesterday reported volume of 108,784 contracts, of which about 35,000 could be attributed to switches; open interest rose 6,346 lots.)

Yesterday, in ScotiaMocatta’s words,

Zitat

"(Gold) was unable to conquer 390.00 as option related selling put a cap on the market."

This point of view is expressed remarkably widely by Bullion Bank commentators. Of course, if this activity does occur, then it would be poor housekeeping on the part of the manipulators to stand back and let gold rise after the expiry. Traders would come to expect this, making the task at the next option expiry more difficult.

Memory does not supply an example of a notable and sustained rise in gold right after an option expiry.

However, the huge volume traded yesterday even after a conservative reckoning of the switches (involving doubling the reported number) and, more particularly, the big open interest increase, makes one suspect a seller with a different motivation. Refco Research apparently sensed this too. Grumbling that:

Zitat

"…options expiry…gives gold no further excuse. Weakness in the dollar due to elevated crude oil should be driving gold higher…Given the current geopolitical situation…"

they sold their model portfolio June long (from $379) on the open this morning.

With this background a powerful discussion of the Bond market from Bianco Research commands attention. Entitled:

Zitat

"What Does The Bond Market Know That The Fed Doesn’t?"

It notes that the ISI Duration Survey

"a measure of how fixed-income institutional money managers have positioned their duration versus their respective benchmark index…is at its lowest level since 1990, meaning institutional managers are currently more bearish on fixed income than they have been in almost 15 years."

Observing in addition, a

"recent dramatic plunge in dealers’ net positions of fixed income. They are now net short the bond market for the first time in almost 15 years."

Bianco rejects the obvious contrarian argument, arguing

Zitat

"…leveraged money is now driving the bond market to a greater degree than traditional managers’ opinions about economics or inflation. It also warns us of the potential pitfalls that could overcome the bond market when the Fed threatens to, or actually does, raise the funds rate."

And cheerfully concludes

Zitat

"Bottom line: The bond market’s problem is inflation. This is why interest rates have soared in recent weeks (and the yield curve has parallel shifted higher). The main way to eliminate this fear is for the Fed to aggressively return the funds rate to a neutral stance. The problem with aggressive Fed policy is the bond market is so leveraged that anything that would flatten the yield curve (such as an aggressive Fed) could create a host of problems in the financial sector. These are tough problems, which are the result of overly accommodative policy by the Fed."

In these circumstances, one might wonder why gold is not rising – despite trading such heavy volume. Perhaps, one day soon, it will.

(Some of gold’s friends, of course, offer a ready explanation!)

JB

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CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

Despite a batch of unfriendly market news, the DOG gained 12 to 1976 and the DOW only fell 8 to 10,109.

The dollar finished slightly lower, the euro slightly higher. Bonds, however, rose a ½ point to 106 5/32. The CRB was flat and oil fell to $40.70 as specs took profits. Continued strength appeared in the Mahendra coffee market, which has been shooting straight up. July closed at 80.15 cents, up another 2.35 cents:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CF/74

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

The repo pool rose to $47.40 Billion as the Fed added $4.75 Billion today May 26th 2004. The Fed also announced another permanent open market operation which ill be posted tomorrow. In addition, tomorrow will bring a very big expiration and therefore a likely very large offsetting repo day. It will be over $24 Billion. With liquidity at that level I see the DOW rising strongly tomorrow.

Things seem set up for an end to the recent DOW weakness and I expect it to regain the target line headed to 11,750 on Labor Day 2004. Whether that aides the incumbent is another matter.

With respect to gold, it is up, however not as much as I expected. Perhaps this time around the cartel's actions had a greater effect than they expected. All this means is the day of reckoning has been extended a bit as they doubtless conserved a bit more metal in the gold war.

I see that housing has taken a hit (Thanks to Ed Steer for the piece):

May 26 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. sales of new houses fell 11.8 percent in April, the biggest monthly drop in more than a decade, as mortgage rates rose and prices soared to a record.

+

The entire housing boom can end very quickly as it is linked directly to interest rates and rate expectations. When that happens the shock waves will be profound indeed. There are $27 Trillion in interest rate derivatives at a single trading house (JP Morgan). They were constructed to keep rates low just as their $41 Billion in gold derivatives were designed to keep gold low.

The counter parties to this looming disaster, the CDOs (Collateralized Debt
Organizations) which serve as "insurance" to the contracts can't possibly absorb the level of default that will occur thus triggering a wave of defaults throughout the credit "industry". BTW since when is printing pieces of colored paper and then "lending" them to "customers" a business?

It will all fail in a spectacular manner on a day they least expect.
Mike

Houston’s Dan Norcini:

Hi Bill:
The U. S. Dollar Index Chart illustrates the very strong potential for the soon-ending of the 3 1/2 month Dollar bear market rally.

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FOR A LARGER, MORE LEGIBLE VERSION OF THIS CHART CLICK HERE (183KB)

As you can see by referencing the chart, the up move in dollar is losing momentum as illustrated by a near textbook perfect case of divergence. Divergences are not a fool proof trend reversal signal; however, they should never be ignored as they are warning signs of a loss of momentum. You will notice that this particular indicator has already generated a sell signal which has been confirmed by a trendline break. Both of the two previous sell signals in this dollar rally have proven to be very short lived and would not have generated much in the way of profits. Still, this one bears watching as we have now seen two consecutive closes beneath the uptrend line drawn off the February and April lows shown in white on the chart. That is not without significance.

A person approaching this market from a pure technician's standpoint, would be selling the dollar based on this setup. They certainly would not be buying. It is pretty obvious to me from the tape that someone was buying the dollar at its lows today. Technically speaking, there is no reason to do so as the dollar is no where near reaching oversold status. That is what leads me to believe that we might have seen some mild intervention taking place as a sort of stabilizing activity.

If we can judge properly from the charts, we should be very close to seeing the dollar rollover with the resumption of its longer term downtrend. That should give gold the push it needs to knock out $395 and then the psychological $400 barrier.

The only question that remains in my mind is what the financial authorities are planning in regards to the dollar at this point. Are they willing to let it resume its downtrend in the hopes of improving the current account deficit or are they willing to stabilize it in here and further blow out that account adding to its already horrendous deficit.
Best,
Dan

Look out if this ever comes to pass:

EU says switch oil from dollar to currency basket

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040526/energy_eu_1.html

BRUSSELS, May 26 (Reuters) - World oil trade should be switched to a basket
of currencies, including the euro, rather than be priced in dollars only, the European Commission said on Wednesday.

"If the oil price should be related to a value it should be a consequence of a basket of currencies involving the main oil consumption (nations)," Energy Commissioner Loyola de Palacio told reporters after a news conference.

From The King Report last evening:

We have mentioned that more and more people are talking and writing about the mendacity of government economic data. It appears we have moved to the next stage where economic and statistical professionals reveal second-hand accounts of pressure on government statisticians to rig the numbers. The next stage will be the appearance of first-hand accounts of the manipulation.

Jim Willie (non de plume for a PhD statistician with over two decades of corporate experience including stints at Staples and Digital Equipment) writes "The Hat Trick Economic Report". He offers some insight into the fraud that is AKA government economic statistics in his current letter:

"After much corporate experience, it is easy for me to see how political pressure and influence can come to falsify the Gross Domestic Product, Consumer Price Index, and Jobs Reports, to make them look good…All too often, economists operate as charlatans who bask in the limelight of public light, who have sold out their integrity for power and status. Surely, many function with competence in a true spirit of adherence to the truth in data, and wish to fully utilize the leverage of refined filters from advanced statistical methods. Some of the best economists are people whom you never hear about, whose identities are unknown, whose work is designed to capture enormous profits for private brokerage firms and hedge funds…The system has failed us. Institutional economists have fast become a political priesthood, which has sold out solid defensible analysis methodology in favor of adaptive malleable political ideology."

"A competent former colleague escaped from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, replete with war stories. Steve reported first-hand experience on dynamic scoring, whereby rising components in price are substituted by more stable alternatives. We joked over lunch about substituting cat food for beef steak. He talked about the heavy hand of directors to keep the CPI low, since federal budget costs (raises, Social Security, pensions) are tied to cost of living adjustments."

"A current friend used to work at the Cleveland Federal Reserve. Randy is one very sharp fellow, at work in a private consulting firm after 20 years of govt service…He claims the NY Fed is shockingly behind the times in analytic methods, with evidence being constant mention of mfg capacity slack and productivity as excuses for low interest rates, despite large scale layoffs and the service outsource trend. Talk centers on their earned reputation of not possessing skills with the PC or email. They still live in the 1980 decade, reliant upon old formulas and assumptions no longer relevant with a fast changing economic structure disturbed by globalization forces." http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/monday.htm

"I have followed developments of major changes in recent years being made regarding how key indicators are measured and reported -- such as for GDP, national income, inflation, productivity, savings, and other important economic items. Criteria changes in the 1990s have been most dramatic, and the truth about the validity of those changes is now coming out. Basically, many of today's economic measurement items have no relation to the past. Such gives a false sense of economic matters appearing better off than they actually are, when compared to the past. This causes many to make wrong decisions regarding current economic trends -- potentially a very dangerous situation." Michael Hodges in "Statistical Revisionism and Wizardry – a danger to a nation" http://mwhodges.home.att.net/statistic-wizardry.htm#top

More evidence of the US productivity miracle: Reuters: "A motion sensor found on Philadelphia rail tracks that raised concern about possible terrorism was planted by an employee hoping to be warned of approaching bosses while he slept on the job, officials said on Monday."

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmp…40524/us_nm/odd_rail_dc_1

Gold report:

Bill
I can almost see the tears in Jessica Cross's eyes as she describes the 50 $ plunge in the POG, (or perhaps crocodile tears).
However this report does have some interesting stats and comments on the current hedge positions of producers, with the caveat that we may wish to suspect the motivations of those involved, (Mitsui, JC), based on our observances of their stance in the gold market in recent years.
http://www.virtualmetals.co.uk/Pages/other/THBQ104.pdf
Best
Alan

Ms. Cross still refuses to reconcile why the gold derivatives are going up, or staying relatively static, while the gold producers continue to lift hedges. Some phony expert she is.

More evidence GATA is correct and Ms. Cross is full of it, GATA’s Mihaly of the Netherlands:

Hi bill,
just some info about central bank gold holdings....As you can see, the United Arab Emirates sold the last gold & Lithuania swapped all their gold. It just keep on going and going....and the list is getting longer and longer....

United Arab Emirates (UAE).

UAE sells remaining gold reserves for higher price.

posted on 10/04/2004

http://www.uaeinteract.com/news/default.asp?ID=140#11603

The UAE has taken advantage of a surge in gold prices late last year to sell its remaining gold reserves, and experts described it as a wise investment measure. The move nearly five months ago was the latest in a series of sales of gold reserves by the Central Bank as part of a strategy intended to diversify its investment portfolio, make more profits, and offset any decline in return from low interest rates.

The Central Bank's gold reserves were valued at as high as Dh666 million (US$181.5 million) two years ago but were halved to Dh333 million (US$90.7 million) at the end of 2002 before they were again slashed to Dh166.5 million (US$45.4 million) last May.

Lithuania (Lithuania became the first of the Soviet republics to declare its independence)

Central Bank of Lithuania

2000 annual report:

http://www.lbank.lt/eng/publications/annual2000/vi.pdf

p. 43:

Gold was invested into 6-month time deposits.

At the end of 2000, gold holdings consisted of 186,308.97 Troy ounce, or USD 47.1 million1.

2003 annual report:

http://www.lbank.lt/eng/public…/finanual/afs_2003_en.pdf

Transactions related to gold swaps are accounted for in the same way as repurchase agreements.

Gold holdings changed due to differences in the weight of gold bars arising on settlements of gold lending transactions. All gold holdings as at 31 December 2003 are related to swap transactions, which mature in 2004.
greetz,
mihaly

Good work, as always, Mihaly. It is amazing how many countries don’t have any gold left. They have either sold it, or swapped it out. Once again we have more concrete evidence that the GATA gold loan/swap numbers of 16,000+ tonnes is right on the money. This is very important as it means there is an end game for The Gold Cartel, more like a Kaputzkie game!

This is very strange. Goldman Sachs has now come out twice as being very gold friendly on both bullion and the shares, yet, it caps every rally. They are working both sides of the fence. It does make one wonder if they know their own Gold Cartel is near the end of their rope!

07:46 Gold sector reiterated attractive at Goldman
Citing a positive outlook for gold prices, noting the U.S. dollar is the key driver, and that interest rate concerns are overdone. High oil prices should support gold. Forecast gold price trading range of $380-$450/oz. over next 12 months. Note Goldman upgraded the sector to attractive on 4/26.

This one is very interesting and offers conflicting points of view on silver. Of most interest to me is this input confirms the silver information brought to your attention months ago regarding the Chinese and their use of silver derivatives.

From Australia:

Hi Bill!
Just talking this morning to a major silver recycler ( now called Silvertech Ltd.) here in Adelaide - they process about half a tonne a week. He said the digital imaging has already made huge inroads into his business and when newspapers and hospitals swing over to it soon it will even more dramatic. He said "If I were investing in anything it wouldn't be silver!" In answer to my question, he didn't think there was any shortage of supply but he did concede he'd heard the Chinese are big buyers via futures. Just an opposing (sobering) viewpoint. Roger M.

Part of the oil problem:

Bill if you recall my last e-mail regarding the extra production would only be high sulpher content or heavy oil-few takers. Ample supply was a polite way to say
we dont want your garbage oil.

Mark

Saudi offers additonal crude to US refiners, some decline

U.S. refiners were contacted last week by Saudi Aramco President Abdullah Jumah to take extra barrels of Saudi crude for June loading and outside existing term contracts.

USA's largest oil refiner ConocoPhillips says it turned down the offer, indicating ample supplies at the company. The company turned down the offer of Saudi crude on ground that it was too heavy for use in ConocPhillips refineries. –END-

8:45a ET Wednesday May 26, 2004

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

James Turk, founder of GoldMoney.com, editor of the Freemarket Gold & Money Report, and consultant to GATA, has done new analysis on the performance of the U.S. dollar and finds that it is "on the precipice." Turk writes:

"So the jury is still out as far as the dollar's bear-market rally is concerned. But the verdict may be delivered any day now. It's likely to be 'curtains' for the dollar if the Dollar Index closes below 89.30.
So be prepared because that is where the dollar is headed, even if it continues to take its time getting there."

You can find Turk's analysis in the "Founder's Commentary" box at the top left of the GoldMoney home page here:

http://goldmoney.com

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

Gold seen soaring to more than $1,000 an ounce by end of decade; Strategist even more upbeat on silver

By Allan Robinson
The Globe & Mail, Toronto
Wednesday, May 26, 2004

TORONTO -- The price of gold could soar to more than $1,000 (U.S.) an ounce by the end of the decade, John Embry, chief investment strategist and portfolio manager at Sprott Asset Management Inc., told analysts yesterday.

The bullish forecast made at a Toronto Society of Financial Analysts meeting in Toronto came as bullion has slumped to $388.30 an ounce from more than $426 early this year.

The growing deficits in the United States will eventually result in the creditor nations deciding that they no longer want to hold U.S. dollars, Mr. Embry said. "When that day comes, the U.S. dollar is going to come under incredible downside pressure," he said. "The U.S. debt situation is unprecedented for a mature nation."

By the end of this year, Mr. Embry expects gold to reach $500 an ounce.

David Chapman, a technical analyst at Union Securities Ltd., also thinks gold is headed for $500 an ounce. "I believe it could still get there this year despite the pullback," he told the analysts.

But he is even more positive on silver. "Hold on to the silver group; it is going to double a long time before gold does," he said.

The rise in interest rates should not hurt gold stocks as long as the increases in rates are below the rate of inflation, Mr. Embry said in an interview following his speech to the analysts. If the rate-setting body of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board were to hike rates aggressively ahead of inflation, there would be a short-term downside risk to gold, he said.

Mr. Embry also doubts that rising interest rates will result in more gold hedging activities by mining companies or investment funds. Short-term rates have not risen high enough to result in more hedging and gold producers are not likely to hedge gold in a bull market environment, he said.

In the past, mining companies have used low gold-lease rates to sell gold forward in order to raise money to finance the construction of new gold mines.

The efforts by other countries around the world to keep their currencies below that of the U.S. dollar for competitive reasons will lead to a massive debasement of money, Mr. Embry told analysts. "Gold will ultimately rise sharply against all major currencies, which will be declining in a climate of competitive devaluations in beggar-thy-neighbour policies," he said.

Mr. Embry thinks that central bank selling of bullion is coming to an end and that the lack of new mining projects on the drawing boards will offset any reduction in jewellery demand because of a slowdown in the world's economies. "There are very few projects out there ready to go right now."

In addition, the capital cost of new mining projects is soaring and the mines currently in operation are extracting lower grades of ore than they have in the past when the richest zones were mined when bullion prices were low, Mr. Embry said. Some mines are coming to the end of their mine life, he said.

Who wouldn’t want to own some gold and silver shares after reading what John Embry has to say?

With about twenty minutes to go, the HUI was down slightly on the day and I took the "HUI" out of my MIDAS title. Not so fast! It spurted late to close at 198.98 up 2.13, with a 200.39 high reached when gold was $3+ higher. That makes it 9 days in a row of higher HUI closes! The XAU gained .84 to 89.25.

A very strange chart formation over the last two weeks in the HUI:

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.c…&o_symb=hui&freq=1&time=8

Little by little the gold shares are running away from those who are out and want back in. Gold continues to be capped by the bad guys, yet it seems their task of holding gold down will be a difficult one. Between geopolitical concerns, US terrorist threats, a wobbly dollar, a rolling over US economy, incredibly low US interest rates, etc., The Gold Cartel has their hands full.

Gold, silver and the shares could really roar at any time.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

Der Goldpreisanstieg hat wohl allen die Sprache verschlagen?

Ist ja auch heute bemerkenswertes geschehen.

Die 6.- Dollar Regel konnte, oder wollte heute ausnahmsweise vom Gold Cabal nicht mehr "bewerkstelligt" werden. Gestern 388.10 Dollar, und heute rauf auf 395.- Dollar, das ist ein Plus von 6.90 Dollar. Ist noch nicht viel drüber über den 6.- Dollars Tagesanstieg beim Gold, doch das dürfte bald auch noch Realität werden. Dass Kitco heute den gestrigen Schlusskurs in den USA nicht verzeichnet, ist sicher auch wieder nur ein weiterer "Computer Fehler"?

Mit etwas Zuversicht, werden wir morgen vielleicht schon wieder die 400.-Dollar Linie erreichen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif]

Der Silberpreis scheint sich auch gerade wieder, nach einer der grössten Preismanipulationen überhaupt, in den vergangenen Wochen, mal vorerst wieder Richtung 7.- Dollar pro Unze auf den Weg zu machen.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.kitco.com/images/live/silver.gif]

Noch eine gute Meldung aus Südafrika!

Durban Roodepoort Deep *DROOY* wird höchstwahrscheinlich die Gold Produktion in der East Rand Proprietary Mines (ERPM), die Durban zu 40% gehört, auf ende Juni wegen Unrentabilität einstellen. Bis anhin erhielt die Mine vom Staat noch eine Subvention, die zur Wasser Entsaugung der Mine bezahlt wurde. Nachdem diese Subvention vom Staat nicht mehr bezahlt wird, rendiert sich der Goldabbau noch weniger.

Eine Goldproduktionseinstellung würde Drooy finanziell sehr gut bekommen. Drooy erspart sich dadurch cirka 7.2 Millionen US Dollar im Jahr, oder ca. 3 US Cents pro Aktie an Verlusten mit ihrer 40%igen Beteiligung an der ERPM Mine.

Zusätzlich ergibt sich aus einer Stillegung der Mine für den Goldmarkt eine weitere Reduktion auf der Gold Angebotsseite von ca. 3.4 Tonnen Gold pro Jahr. Soviel Gold hatte bis anhin die ERPM Mine in etwa im Jahr produziert.

Die Anleger begrüssen diese geplante Stillegung anscheinend bereits mit starken Zukäufen.

Durban steht zur Zeit mit über 9% im Plus!

http://ichart.yahoo.com/b?s=DROOY