Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

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Gold eyes $400 as investors shun dollar

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Thursday May 27, 11:08 AM EDT

By Veronica Brown

LONDON, May 27 (Reuters) - Gold is firmly back in vogue, with analysts expecting more price gains towards $400 an ounce as a sinking dollar and security worries highlight the metal's status as a safe-haven for investors.

Zitat

"The general environment is still so uncertain -- it's one where really no one is going to sell gold in a big way," Kevin Crisp, analyst with Koch Metals, said.

Crisp said financial market worries over Iraq and a warning from U.S. Attorney General John Ashcroft on potential U.S. targets for al Qaeda were also fuelling the rise by gold -- now trading around $393 an ounce.

Zitat

"If the market can keep up its current momentum then a test of $400 is perfectly possible," he added.

Zitat

"There's some evidence that the funds have become involved again...and the dollar is a key driving force," Societe Generale economist Stephen Briggs said.

John Reade of UBS Warburg said:

Zitat

"Commodities are generally picking up again after the China and U.S. interest rate issues collapsed, so that's taken away a negative factor for gold."

He said investors might find better levels to buy the metal but suspected further gains lay ahead.

Zitat

"I would say I'm two-thirds thinking of further upside."

UPS AND DOWNS

Bullion has had a bumpy ride in the last couple of months, moving in and out of investors' affections as portfolio insurance.

It was flavour of the month in early April when fund buyers attacked 15-year peaks over $430.00 as dollar weakness pulled money into metals.

A weaker dollar makes dollar-priced bullion less expensive for non-U.S. investors.

Then came a brutal sell-off as sky-high speculative interest gave way amid a resurgence of the U.S. currency as stronger economic data pointed to decent growth and expectations of a dollar-boosting interest rate rise.

China -- a major metals consumer and producer -- also figured heavily as commodities plunged in late April when fund buyers were spooked by measures taken to calm down China's rampant economy, which grew by 9.1 percent last year.

Analysts were saying bullion faced a protracted stay in the doldrums as the market touched a seven-month low of $371 in early May, but now the impact of oil prices testing record highs has put the dollar firmly on the defensive and gold back on course for the highs.

©2004 Reuters Limited.

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May 27, 2004 Thursday 12:30 PM

Gold futures shine, touching one-month high

Myra P. Saefong, CBS.MarketWatch.com; mailto:mpicache@marketwatch.com; Myra P. Saefong is a reporter for CBS.MarketWatch.com in San Francisco.

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Gold futures climbed as much as $7 an ounce Thursday to touch their highest level in nearly a month, as worries over possible terrorist attacks on U.S. soil combined with a weaker dollar fueled investor interest.

"We are seeing incredibly strong movements in gold right now -- lots of new inquiries based on the recent terrorism announcement," said Kevin Kerr, editor of Kwest Market Edge. http://www.kwestinternational.com/KWESTDAILYISSUE.html See the latest newsletter. The U.S. government warned Wednesday of a potential terrorist attack this summer. http://www.cbsnews.com/stories…5/terror/main619569.shtml See CBS News for more. The buying interest in the yellow metal, Kerr added, "could spur gold right through the $400 level, especially as we head into a long [Memorial] holiday weekend."

In the latest dealings, gold for June delivery rose $6 to trade at $394.30 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, the contract climbed as high as $395, its intraday best since April 28.

Gold now appears "determined to break out and may just have the new buying to do it," contended Kerr.

All in all, it's the perfect environment for gold bulls with low interest rates and "a slight perk in inflationary pressures," said John Person, editor of The Bottom Line. http://www.nationalfutures.com/ See the newsletter.

But while tensions in the Middle East and high energy prices provide underlying support for gold, "the resumption of the major downtrend in the U.S. dollar is the main driving force in the gold market right now," indicated Peter Grandich, editor of The Grandich Letter.

The dollar's sharpest move came against the Swiss franc Thursday after reports of explosives found near the site of this weekend's NATO meeting in the Slovak capital Bratislava.

Economic data spurs rise in industrial metals

Economic data released Thursday were upbeat and the figures, along with pressure from gold's climb, pulled industrial metals higher.

The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 4.4 percent in the first quarter, slightly faster than previously estimated, while the Labor Department reported a fall in the number of people filing for state unemployment insurance for the first time.

"I continue to believe base metals can do even better than precious metals," said Grandich, noting that "just about every day the aboveground supply of copper declines, along with other key industrial metals." http://www.grandich.com/ See the newsletter.

Zitat

"At the current rate, we could witness a parabolic rise in many base metals by year's end," he added.

July copper tacked on 4.05 cents, or 3.3 percent, to $1.272 per pound, while July silver traded at $6.17 an ounce, up 11.5 cents.

June palladium traded at $253 an ounce, up $2.25, and July platinum advanced $8.60 to $845 an ounce.

More key economic indicators are due out Friday, including consumer sentiment and personal income and spending figures.

The latest inventory data for metals showed declines in both copper and silver.

As of late Wednesday, copper supplies were down 1,630 short tons at 134,908 short tons, according to Nymex. Silver stocks were down 144,151 troy ounces at 119.7 million troy ounces.

But gold inventories stood at 4.45 million troy ounces, unchanged from the previous day.

Mining indexes up, again

In equities action, mining shares traded broadly higher, with key indexes for the sector setting up for a fifth-straight winning session.

The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index ($XAU) added 1.8 percent to 90.87.

The CBOE Gold Index ($GOX) also rose 1.8 percent to 80.80, and the Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI) moved up to 202.56, 1.8 percent higher.

Shares of Bema Gold (BGO) traded at $2.64, up 10 cents, or 3.9 percent. After the market closed Wednesday, Vancouver-based Bema said the results of a preliminary economic assessment of the Kupol project in Russia shows that the site "can be developed as a high-grade, low-cost gold and silver mine with robust project economics."

The study, which estimates an initial 12-year mine life based on the drilling to date, marks the start of the planning process for conducting mining and milling operations at Kupol, according to Bema.

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May 27, 2004

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Business News May 28, 2004

Gold price in the local market to continue rise

Zakki P. Hakim, Jakarta

A combination of a falling rupiah and the rising international price of gold is pushing the price of the commodity up in the local market.

Experts say that the higher price trend here would likely continue, particularly if the rupiah continues to be under pressure.

A gram of 24 karat gold was offered on Wednesday at around Rp 115,000 (US$12.42), a 5.5 percent increase from last weekend's average price of Rp 109,000 in local markets.

Leo Hadi Loe, a consultant at the World Gold Council (WGC) in Jakarta, said the rising gold price here was triggered by higher gold prices in the international market.

He added that the weakening of the rupiah against the U.S. dollar had further put downward pressure on the price of the commodity.

Internationally the price of gold averaged at between $384 and $387 per ounce on Wednesday, higher than $376.50 per ounce a week earlier. The higher price was mainly due to the weakening of the dollar against other major currencies amid worries that soaring international oil prices would hurt the U.S. economy.

Leo predicted that the gold price at home would continue to rise mainly because of fears that the rupiah's woes will be around for some time.

He hopes the central bank will intervene in the currency market to help prevent a free fall of the local unit.

Zitat

"It's worrying to see while the dollar is weakening globally, the rupiah is falling," he said.

The rupiah ended at a fresh 19-month low of Rp 9,275 per dollar on Wednesday, compared to Rp 9,260 on Tuesday due to a combination of economic uncertainties at home and political jitters ahead of the July presidential election.

Leo said that the rising gold price would cut trade volume of the commodity in the local market by around 50 percent in the coming months.

In the last three months, the volume reached an average of 20 tons per month and might drop to 15 tons next month.

A Pau, a gold shop owner in Cikini, Central Jakarta, also predicted that the price here would continue to increase.

He was concerned, however, that the rising price would hurt business volume.

He also hopes the central bank and the government will take measures to help rescue the ailing rupiah.

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Bema Gold "buy," target price reduced

Thursday, May 27, 2004 11:23:21 AM ET
Canaccord Capital

NEW YORK, May 27 (New Ratings) - Analyst Steven Butler of Canaccord Capital maintains his "buy" rating on Bema Gold Corporation (BGO.TOR), while revising his estimates for the company. The target price has been reduced from $4.60 to $4.20.

Shares of Bema Gold Corporation, a precious metals company that operates in Canada, are currently trading at $2.54.

http://www.newratings.com/analyst_news/article_427241.html

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Gold –The Weekly Global Perspective w-e 28th May 2004
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold-Authentic Money - Authenticmoney.com

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The week blossomed, as gold recovered its dignity, rising, at the time of writing, to $395+. And the market had a veneer of normality about it. Only on the surface, so it turns out. Most of the large scale long positions were financed by the “carry trade” [the speculators who used cheap money to take positions from which to earn profits, via price movements]. With the prospect of interest rates rising, the risks to profits rose with them, hence the alacrity with which these positions have been closed. But the genuine Speculators have gone one step further and opened a 100 tonne “short” position as part of the selling process. Gold dropped to $372 at its worst, alongside falling, then drifting, equity and bond markets. When speculators have the fear of dropping prices in their nostrils, dropping prices spur them on and spurred on they were until they had unloaded 435 tonnes of gold including the 100 tonnes of ‘short’ positions. Add to this the 35 tonnes sold by Portugal in keeping with the “Washington Agreement” limitations. To relate just how huge this amount is recall just how much the “Washington Agreement” Central Banks agreed to limit their sales to per annum, yes, 400 tonnes! Speculators, so they are portrayed, unloaded nearly 20% more then that in six weeks.

The canny physical buyers came into buy, yes, but with no intention of holding prices up. They bought and sometimes robustly, but only on weakness. With the doldrums of the northern hemisphere expected from the end of May, there’s no hurry. As the week closed the gold prices alongside other markets recovered to some extent, taking the gold price over $380 again, and after drifting in that region for another week, continued to rise over $395, as we write. As the week draws to a close and “frantic Friday” leaps on us, look out for some fireworks!

The Euro is showing new strength taking gold with it, as the economic data is not as vigorous as hoped, despite a 4.5% G.D.P. growth rate to date [annualised]. The confidence drop in the U.S. economic recovery, in the face of the biting oil price, and waning economic data, sent the dollar on the decline, again.

Interesting that gold fell against the Euro on the fall and rose sharper than the Euro on the rise, trading around Euros 321.47 currently, up from a Euro 316 low.

At the time of writing gold stood at $394.35, and Euros 321.47 with the Euro itself worth $1.2267.

Whither do “Gold – Authentic Money” and its sister publications go now? We got it right by going where the market told us to!

Ulfur

Zitat

Recently, a Johannesburg analyst even speculated that some 80% of the country’s gold operations are currently unprofitable

Wenn das stimmen sollte, dass 80% aller Südafrikanischen Goldproduzenten bei den jetzigen Goldpreisen von 390.- bis 400.- Dollar nur mit Verlust Gold fördern, heisst das doch nicht mehr, und nicht weniger, das es für diese Tiefstpreise, bald kein Gold mehr geben dürfte.

Unrentable Goldproduktionen, werden über kurz, oder lang eingestellt werden müssen. Dadurch wird das physische Gold Produktions Defizit noch riesiger, als es jetzt schon ist mit seinen 1500 Tonnen Gold pro Jahr.

ERGO

Die Gold Preise müssen/werden massiv steigen, bis wieder in SA, dem wichtigsten Goldlieferanten der Welt, mit Gewinn Gold gefördert werden kann. Ein steigender Wechselkurs des SA Rand zum US Dollar wird zwar auch einen positiven Einfluss auf die SA Gold Minen Gewinnsituation haben. Doch denke ich, dass ein bedeutend höherer Goldpreis als heute zwingender von Nöten ist, und auch die wahrscheinlichere Variante von beiden ist.

Am schnellsten käme Südafrika durch eine Bekanntgabe einer Gold Liefer Sperre in den Genuss von höheren Goldpreisen, die die dortigen Produzenten aus der jetzigen Verlustzone bringen würde, und Massenentlassungen bei der Gold Minen Industrie gleichzeitig verhindern könnte. Selbst eine dadurch nötige staaatliche Entschädigung an die Goldproduzenten, repektive die staatliche Übernahme und Bezahlung der laufenden Goldproduktion, wäre unterm Strich auch für den südafrikanischen Staat ein Gewinn, weil die Bezahlung in Papier Geld *Fiat Money* erfolgen würde, im Tausch gegen echtes Geld, GOLD! Später, falls überhaupt erwünscht, kann dieses Gold nach, und nach für bedeutend höhere Marktpreise verkauft werden.

Einige werden vielleicht einwenden, dass so eine Lösung einfach nicht machbar sei, wegen Lieferverträgen, und zwischenstaatlichen Vereinbarungen, etc.

Ich denke es ist sehr wohl machbar!

Niemand kann allen ernstes von Südafrika langfristig verlangen, einen ganzen Industriezweig mit hundertausenden von direkt, und indirekt abhängigen Arbeitsplätzen, wie die SA Goldindustie, mit Verlust echtes Geld (Gold) fördern zu lassen, nur um dieses Gold danach, sogar noch mit Verlust, gegen Papier ohne Deckung (US Dollar) einzutauschen zu lassen, weil einige wenige grosse Gold Bullion Banken auf Grund ihrer riesigen Gold Derivativ Bestände, plus die FED, Weltbank, IMF, BIZ, etc., wegen ihrer monetären Wünsche, es gerne so sehen möchten, und fast täglich durch einen leicht zu beeinflussenden Papier Goldhandel versuchen der ganzen Welt ihre gewünschten Gold Tiefstpreise aufzuzwingen, und dabei nicht müde werden uns allen die angeblichen Vorteile von ungedecktem Papier *Fiat Money* gegenüber echtem Geld wie Gold, vorlügen zu wollen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

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May 27 - Gold $396 up $6.90 - Silver $6.18 up 14 cents

Waiting For The Fire/UP 10 In A Row For The HUI

We never know how high we are
Till we are called to rise;
And then, if we are true to plan,
Our statures touch the skies...Emily Dickinson

GO GATA!!

Mahendra called yesterday afternoon to let me know he had arrived in Dallas. He was in a jovial mood and said he was waiting for "the fire" today. Perplexed, I queried what he was talking about. He informed me that gold and silver were going to take off today. Fire it was.

Gold came in firm and roared from there, rising $6.90 in the early going when The Gold Cartel instituted its $6 Groundhog Day Rule for the umpteenth time. For the third trading session in a row, gold surged in the first half hour/hour and was then capped by the price managers from there on in. It is sickening how this can happen time and time again and the mainstream gold world maintains their silence. What a useless bunch!

The dollar was clobbered as the convincing breach of its 50 and 200-day moving averages had traders dumping the greenback. It closed at 88.71 down 1.10, while the euro rocketed 1.61 to 122.68.

Watching the HUI gold share action has been a fine predictor of late as to what The Gold Cartel has in store for the gold market the next day. An email from a fellow Café member last evening:

Bill,
Tradition continues. We got our last 10 minute rally in HUI, so we can look for gold to rally tomorrow.
W

Then with three hours still to go in the gold trading this morning:

Hi Bill,
This six dollar phenomenon is the most rare statistical anomaly I have ever witnessed in any market in my 20 years of study. Since we know markets are free of undue influence or manipulation (see CFTC et al), perhaps it is a millennial conjunction of planetary confluence. Very peculiar.
Regards,
Tom

Dan sums it up perfectly:

Comex Floor Rules
*Section 4, Paragraph 2; Rule 2G:
Gold's effective daily limit will be set at a maximum gain of $6 and change. Intraday movements above this limit are permitted by the exchange with the understanding that closing prices must conform to this limit under penalty of exchange disciplines which may include some or all of the following:
a.) Loss of member privileges.
b.) Suspension from the trading floor
c.) Raised margin requirements and fees
d.) Exclusion from the Comex Christmas dinner party

Any additional questions should be directed to the trading desks of J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs who welcome all customer inquiries in this matter. Please be assured that all comments, whether favorable or unfavorable, receive the same, unbiased, impartial attention.

****

The gold open interest fell a surprising 8565 contracts to 244,100. Hard to tell what happened yesterday. What is important to note is gold has rallied $25 off its lows with the open interest continuing to contract. On balance the specs have not poured into the long side. They were too traumatized on the drop from $430 for many of them to jump back in yet. This might change when gold takes out its

200-day moving average at $397, basis the Aug contract. We could easily get 70,000 new spec longs which could take gold back up to $430 and beyond. Time to smile. That is all ahead of us!

Today’s gold surge blew through formidable technical resistance between $390 and $395. A move above its cash basis 200-day moving average of $395.80 should send gold off to the races

Silver followed gold on the open, weakened noticeably versus gold, and then drifted right back up. Here too the traumatized specs continue to exit the market. The silver open interest dropped 2700 contracts yesterday to 85,630. We have these incredibly bullish fundamentals and few want to play because of what happened weeks ago.

Last night I had the pleasure of dining with Mahendra, Nanik Gangaram from Madrid, Spain, and my friend Charles Pace of Pace Securities. Nanik, also a Hindu, flew in for the Mahendra party tonight. Mahendra regaled us with how he comes up with what he does and why. A very shrewd and charming fellow. We had a great time to be continued this evening.

What wonderful timing for Mahendra to be making a presentation. The guy is on some kind of roll. I am re-presenting part of what he wrote to his subscribers late last week…. Gold up to maybe $398.80, silver a gift at $5.80, coffee to make a move, the US stock market to rally, the dollar to be hit hard, and stay away from oil because it will be all over the place this week. You might like to know that Mahendra’s highest paying clients are institutional money managers located all over the world.

Mahendra from late last week:

GOLD

In the course of last week, the performance of gold was in harmony with what I had predicted and unvarying with what I saw in my planetary combinations. Last week's trend has granted me additional confidence and even made it easier to write this week's newsletter. This is in view of the fact that as I was writing my book last September, I saw the commencement of a reverse trend for gold and its stocks from 17th May (after uncertain trend in April to till 12 May). Indeed, the short term prediction that I made while I wrote the newsletter last week affirmed a reverse trend.

Having written and sent the newsletter last week, I diligently watched the movements of metal prices. Price movements from Monday to Thursday confirmed 14 out of a total 15 key astrological points and I immediately sent alert emails to all my members, and on my website notifying a strong rise on Friday. This is because I wanted everyone to gain and be on the positive side.

Whenever 10 to 13 points match, this is always a strong indication that the market trend will move accordingly in a particular direction. However, a 14 or 15 points match indicates 100% certainty of a particular trend and in this case the predictions can never be wrong, yet the points hardly ever match to such a degree of precision.

I see gold prices steadily moving up during this week and it is quite probable that they might even touch $398.80. Indications resulting from my astrological calculations say that one can either hold investments in gold or buy at this level.

NOTE: Compared to gold, gold stocks will have a stronger upward move in the next three months.

June gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/64

SILVER:

Prices of silver will move up fairly strongly and any thing around the $5.80 mark is really a bargain price at which to put in money.

NOTE: Silver and silver stocks will strongly rise in the next 2 Months and also many will surprise it ignorant toward gold. Let me remind you once again that Silver is on the top of my investments list for 2004, the second in line being Oil, while the third is either Gold or Coffee.

July silver:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/74

STOCK MARKET:

I see a short term resurgence whereby we shall witness the commencement of an upward trend in the USA, Asia and the European stock markets. One should cover short positions on Monday or one may buy. This recommendation is however valid for only this week as my long-term prediction remains dismal.

June S&P
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SP/64

CURRENCIES:

From Tuesday the USD will begin a down ward journey against all other key currencies. I believe that this single line is sufficient to guide currency traders make the appropriate decisions during this week.

June dollar:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/US/64

OIL:

This week oil will remain volatile, down on one day and up in the next. My recommendation is that you desist from trading, while those who bought on my advice can sell their holding at this point.

July crude oil:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CO/74

COFFEE:

Last week, the performance of coffee was good. Indeed, the time for it to be up and on the rise has come.

July coffee:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CF/74

Doesn’t get better than that!

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The John Brimelow Report

Huge seller meets huge buyer; =?

Thursday, May 27, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $3.21, PM $$3.78, with world gold at $390.80 and $391.10. Below legal import point. The Shanghai Gold Exchange is showing very low premiums at present also.

TOCOM continued sluggish. Volume did jump 51%, but only to the equivalent of 16,673 Comex lots. Open interest slipped the equivalent of 78 Comex lots. The active contract was up 10 yen. World gold went out $3.75 above NY at $391.75, reflecting activity during Japanese hours, but not, evidently, on TOCOM. (NY yesterday traded 139,903 lots, or 85,857 net of switches –very heavy. Open interest dropped a startling 8,566 lots.)

Yesterday, of course, gold failed to sustain the pre options-expiry surge, and finished on its lows. Standard London says:

"Gold made another pass at $392…However with the market long, looking for test of the 200 day moving average at $395, and no follow through buying emerging, the bids crumbled and with (possible) light producer selling around the price fell back to $388 before ending the day just 10 cents higher at $388.30 bid."

(Perhaps there is a producer stupid enough to block the price of its product breaking up through an important technical level, but is there one big enough nowadays, given yesterday’s volumes? Presuming, of course, ABX really has retired from championing hedging.)

Today, of course gold started moving up again strongly in the early Asian day (around 10 PM NY time). As noted above, the Asian nations themselves show no sign of originating the move, which has continued today on very heavy volumes. Estimated volume was 135,000, or 99,000 net of switches. Once again, however the buying refrained from decisively breaching the $395 level.

This looks like Western Hemisphere capital pools getting active again. On the basis of their two previous charges, they could buy some 200 tonnes of "paper" (Comex) gold. Clearly, the large seller obviously active might have to work quite hard.

From the Central Bank world comes an announcement by the Dutch that they are helping themselves to a 100 tonne slice of the next 5 year Washington Accord selling ration. This is not significant: only a move to exceed the 2500 tonnes envisaged matters. Perhaps more important is the extraordinary spectacle depicted in John Crudele’s NY Post column today of Fed Governor McTeer exulting in breaking accounting regulations and the law for reasons of expediency immediately post 9/11:

""We couldn't collect the checks," he noted, "but we pretended we were collecting the checks and we gave credit for those checks, [and] created [an] enormous amount of float — which by law we're supposed to treat as a real cost to us…. since we're more a public institution than a private institution, we decided not to put our cost situation ahead of the public good," McTeer concluded."

(See http://www.nypost.com/cgi-bin/printfriendly.pl or see below) Obviously, this does nothing to sustain confidence in the integrity of Central Bank behavior.

JB

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CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW continued its run, finishing the day at 10,205, up 95, while the DOG managed an 8 point win to close at 1985.

The bonds continued their rebound, gaining 28/32 to 107 1/32.

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:
The Fed added $20.796 Billion in both permanent open market operations and temporary operations. This action caused the repo pool to fall a bit to $43.45 Billion. However this fall won't happen until 5PM today. Until then the pool will hover around $68 Billion during the day and this is why we see the DOW well up today (vis futures buying by the Fed';s primary dealers) as I suggested in last night's MIDAS report.

Predicting exact DOW movements is difficult because the support mechanism is elastic, sometimes stretching before taking full effect. This lag is really not tradable other than to take a week's long view and more importantly to appreciate where the Fed's ultimate target lies. I see that target as 11,750 on Labor Day but this could just be a mirage caused by over pessimism on my part. I base my prediction on a collection of knowledge and a history of tactical Fed observations. One obtains a sense of their intentions.

Alert

There has been a slight but unmistakable change in one of my long-term metrics that suggests an alteration in the Fed's planned gold retreat. The very high COMEX volume yesterday combined with other developments to convince me that the Fed may be attempting to reduce the rise rate of gold. It's too early to determine what that new rate will be but either this change is a fluke or we may be in for a bit less growth rate in the precious metals. It is far too early to make any sell trading decisions and in any event we need to get a sense of the new cycles prior to any action.
Mike

Chuck checks in from Mexico:

Sorry I haven´t written you but it´s hard to keep a real feel on the markets apart from watching them from home. But my take is that we are moving up nicely without any real enthusiasm, which is good, in the precious metals. There has been very little movement in the Rydex flow, and the smaller exploration still behave as though gold will never emerge out of its bear market of the past 25 years. Using GSS as a proxy, and the enormous short position that you mentioned, I am definitely expecting some explosive days on the upside. The shorts must still feel pretty smug and comfortable.

As far as the stock market is concerned, you must wonder what anyone is thinking, but that question is self answered. I would think that we´ll have a real shot up on gold before this sets back. The enthusiasm is just not there yet. Chuck

Houston’s Dan Norcini:

Hey Bill:
Open interest is a bit of a puzzle for me today. Huge short covering taking place as evidenced by the sizeable drop. My guess is by funds as we are now back to and above levels where they were putting these shorts on. Nice to see those fund shorts losing their derrieres. Serves them right for letting the cartel play them like a violin and sucker them into short selling under $390 and lower. Sometimes they need to turn their black boxes off and pay attention to the fundamentals instead of worshipping at the altar of the technical analysis god.

Some longs are leaving also. I have the feeling that might be the commercial longs lifting some as they put quite a few on down below $380. I do suspect however that our "friends" at the cartel are in the process of selling and selling and selling once again. Looks like the "Open for Business" sign is back out on display. No way they are covering any further shorts. We have seen the low point in the number of commercial shorts for some time in my opinion. From here on out, that number is going to be steadily increasing again as they go back to playing the same game that they have played for the last two years now.

Did you notice that the $6.00 uptick rule also happens to coincide nicely with resistance near the 200 day moving average? How convenient for our "friends" today.

Also, look over at the bonds - they are now over 3 full points off the recent low and have flipped all the technical indicators back to bullish once again. Right on schedule according to the plan. Now they will need to continue to stabilize the DOW which also has turned the indicators up to positive from deeply oversold areas. So we are back to a rising DOW and lower interest rates once again. Amazing. One has to hand it to these guys. They are quite good at what they are doing. Even managed to steer crude oil down a bit with all the jawboning from the Saudis to give stocks a lift and firm the bids under the bonds.

What I am really anxious to see is if the BOJ is going to get back into business after a two month hiatus if the yen continues to rally as the dollar sinks. If so, it is conceivable that we could see the carry trades come back in force and bonds right back up near 109 or higher once again. And who said that one needs to buy tickets for a movie to get some entertainment. This is more fun to watch than the latest sequel to Shrek.
Best,
Dan

Gold important:

Hi Bill,
This article, published in the May issue of the UK's Portfolio International magazine, quotes the views of Peter Rose, MD of NM Rothschild & Sons and is GOLD BULLISH. This completely contradicts the SUPPOSED bearish signal given by Rothschild's withdrawal from the London price fixing committee. It also adds weight to the argument that Rothschild sees little future in the hedging business and prefers to be long Gold. Who understands the extent of the short position better than they do? Makes you think, doesn’t it?

Regards
Chris Hall (Trinity Holdings)

Investors Should be Going for Gold

Peter Rose, managing director of NM Rothschild & Sons (CI) believes gold is back in fashion as a hedge against inflation for private investors

May 2004 issue

The factors that led to growth in investor demand for gold in 2003 could play a key role in determining the level of investor interest this year. There were three principal reasons last year:

- The political back-drop was favourable with tensions high not least because of terrorist threats
- Economic and financial concerns, in particular the future prospect for equities and bonds
- The US economy and its twin deficits, with the prospect of higher inflation down the road

Perhaps the greatest of the economic drivers has been the weakness of the US dollar, especially against the euro.

WHY BUY GOLD NOW?

Over time gold has proved beyond doubt to be an important hedge against inflation. More recently, during the second half of the 1990s, the price declined dramatically, and just as dramatically has begun a resurgence.

The main reason was the extraordinary strength of the US dollar until very recently. This drove manufacturing offshore and attracted high levels of imports, and, as a result, the US trade deficit ballooned.

That was manageable at a time when booming equity markets were attracting large inflows of foreign capital to balance the trade outflows, but the sharp correction in equity markets in mid-2002 has put severe pressure on the dollar.

Compounding the problem was the success of the world's central bankers in fighting inflation in the past 15 years. Gold's role as a hedge against inflation is often cited as one of the major reasons for investor purchases, but since the mid-to-late 90s with virtually no inflation, investor demand dropped dramatically.

Over the past couple of years, inflationary potential has clearly been building up in the US economy.

This does not mean that the US is returning to rampant inflation, but more importantly that with the decline in inflation rates now over, investors are once again returning to a measured view of the importance of gold in underpinning risk in a balanced portfolio.

HOW TO INVEST IN GOLD

At a simple level you can invest in gold by buying coins or small bars.

You can keep these yourself or you can ask your bank to hold them for you, in which case your bank will charge you for storage charges and insurance.

By its nature, if you choose to hold gold bars or gold coins yourself, rather than holding them at your bank, you may find you have to answer many anti-money laundering questions when you need to sell.

A simpler method will be to hold an account in gold at your bank in the same way that you hold amounts in foreign currency. However you are exposed to the creditworthiness of the bank as well as the price of gold.

Finally, you could buy units in a collective investment vehicle which specialises in investing in the shares of gold mining firms.

But, while they are subject to the same risk factors that influence the prices of most other equities, there are additional risks that are specific to the mining business generally, and to individual mining companies specifically.

-END-

From Sarge, but there is no inflation:

I just got back from taking the entire family for our yearly eye exam.

SHEESH!!

The optometrist raised his exam fees by a minimum 28.5% since our last visit!! What cost me $189 last year just cost me $249. An exam for contact lens for the oldest daughter was raised more than 40%. All told the exams cost me an average of 31% more than a year ago. I queried the doctor. He said his rent (from Wal*Mart) had been jacked up a substantial amount. He also said that his malpractice insurance had doubled to $13,000 a year. He told me that all the doctors he knew were making 22% less right now than they were a year ago just because of malpractice insurance premium increases.

THEN . . . I went to get some new lenses for the kids and some contacts and a new set of frames for myself. Last year I bought 5 sets of frames, 5 sets of lenses, a pair of sunglasses and contacts for about $425.

I just paid over $370 for 1 set of frames, three sets of lenses, 1 pair of sunglasses and contacts. According to what I paid for things a year ago, I had been prepared to walk out of the Vision Center for under $200. Needless to say I was shocked when the girl asked me for $370.

But there is NO inflation!!

Wonder if I can get a government subsidy or something? I need Al to send me some of that helicopter money. Maybe two helicopters full!! Sheesh!!

The Chinese factor:

Hi Bill
This may have been mentioned on your site recently, but had an anecdotal story that I thought was interesting.

Ran into a friend yesterday, who recently bought a small building. He wants to remodel before he moves his business in and needs 9 yards of concrete to level the floor. His contractor called the concrete company and they said 4-6 weeks wait. He asked why and was told that China is buying all of the concrete. He then called every supplier in the phone book and same story. He then called Cemex directly, who is one of the largest suppliers in Florida and they told him that thousands of concrete companies all over the U.S. have gone out of business because there is no concrete.

Maybe this is old news, but hadn't heard this before.
Best Regards
Kurt Paine

Bullish silver news:

Hi Bill,
This is extremely bullish for silver and I haven't seen it mentioned anywhere. John Whitney, CEO of Itronics, BB:ITRO, has a unique perspective on silver usage for film processing. His company is paid to dispose photochemical waste fluids. It then virtually de-metallizes those fluids and creates both .999 silver bars and a high quality fertilizer from the residual.

On moneytv.net's show from LA during the week ending Apr 30, he claims Itronics saw a 66% increase in photochemical waste fluids last fall from existing customers and the growth rate has continued into this year.

He stated that there has been an increase in film processing because digital cameras are causing people to take more pictures and then have them printed on Silver Halide paper.

Itronics' real world experience belies the conventional thinking that digital cameras will cause a decrease in silver usage. When investors realize that there is an increase in demand for silver due to digital cameras, the metal and silver stocks should fly.

Here's the link to the show http://www.emergingcompany.com/volume8week17rdsl.ram The interview begins at 3:15 into the show.
Dan Cervo
I do own shares in Itronics

Some thoughts for the future:

Hi Bill,
With the US dollar tanking badly today, Dan Norcini's dollar commentary yesterday was incredibly timely. Barring perpetual intervention, the dollar is dog meat. Gold is asserting itself in spite of obvious intervention. The Dow is behaving like a puppet of the PPT; acting independent of its fundamentals.

As I consider the finally-receding floodwaters of the swollen Des Plaines River here in Northern Illinois, I reflect upon the many measures taken by local authorities to protect the public from the recent disastrous flooding. These included advance planning, coordinated public announcements of weather forecasts and water levels, road closings, evacuations, and provision of emergency support services for those unfortunate enough to be impacted.

The analogy of a storm or flood has been used to describe the expected upcoming correction to our financial economy. Given how the Federal Reserve and the US Government have created, exacerbated, and then denied altogether the current economic malfeasance and upcoming economic reckoning, should they have been in charge of the flood abatement effort here, then the consequences surely would be different: the flood would have inundated the unalerted populace along the river; accurate and timely forecasts of the weather or river flood levels would have been censored, giving no advance warning; emergency supplies and sandbags would have been "leased out" during the last flood-free interval and would not be available for emergency relief, many unaware victims would have drowned in their vehicles on dangerous flooded roadways because they were not informed of the clear and present danger; barricades and detour warning signs would have disappeared suddenly and mysteriously, leaving people unaware of the dangers ahead; and helpless flood victims would have been quarantined to their already flooded homes.

Had the extremely capable and dedicated emergency management relief agencies here acted as the deceptive Fed and its minions in government have done in matters of critical economic importance, the flooding disaster would have been much greater. Clearly the parallels and implications for our dangerously leveraged economy are evident. When the economic levee breaks, we should remember that the PTB have been working overtime to ensure that few possess nor are even aware of any safe haven, should one become necessary during the economic hard times apparently dead ahead for Americans.
GATA get some more gold!
Tom K

How true this is:

Bill,
Have you ever seen a more "worthless" piece of research? With gold at $393+, they recommend the stocks with an expected gold range of $370-390. Then, they select Barricks as their top pick! Gee, that "Indian wedding" demand would sure be at the top of my list of reasons for strong demand!! How about "fabrication demand???"

This provides more documentation that Wall Street research isn’t worth the paper it is printed on.
Regards,
W

Merrill sees gold trade in $370-390 range in near term (ABX) By Emily Church

LONDON (CBS.MW) -- Merrill Lynch told clients it sees gold equities "attractively valued." As for the metal, the broker said: "Looking ahead, in the sluggish fabrication demand environment post the Indian wedding season, we expect bullion trade within a $370-$390/oz range in the near term. Longer term, we expect bullion to rise to the $415/oz level by early-mid-fall due the anticipated seasonal rebound in fabrication demand (a trend which has occurred 13 of the past 15 years)." Merrill said its "favorite" senior gold stock is Barrick Gold (ABX) .

-END-

Yes, W, there is a more worthless piece of research out there, believe it or not.

Gold has shot its bolt
By: Stewart Bailey
Posted: '26-MAY-04 16:00' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004

JOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) -- Jeff Christian

"A price over $400/oz is not sustainable in the long run unless the world goes to hell in a handbasket. The average long-term clearing price of gold is between $320/oz and $380/oz," says Christian…

But Christian says that at gold prices of $350/oz or higher, there is a wealth of new capacity waiting to be unleashed on a market that has already seen higher prices dent all-important physical demand.

His best guess is that over the next five years, as mining companies continue to notch up exploration budgets and capital spending, the mining industry could see a net increase of some 20% or more in gold production. At the same time, jewellery demand that has already shed some 20% over the last three years on the back of higher prices, will wilt further. Central Bank sales, the second most important source of supply - ahead of scrap recycling and after new mine production - will also remain a depressing factor. Global government gold reserves currently represent about 35 years of gold supply, which is worrying when one considers that large developed countries have sent a clear signal that gold no longer plays the central role in their monetary policies.

"People are starting to wake up to this," says Christian.

http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/325328.htm

-END-

Gold supply disruption:

Guinea forces halt to AngloGold Ashanti mine

The Guinean government has halted production at AngloGold Ashanti Ltd new Siguiri mine after stopping it from moving gold out or bringing diesel into the facility, the South African company said on Wednesday.

"The government of Guinea has placed an embargo on all imports and exports by the Siguiri mine, including the export of gold bullion and the import of diesel," the company said in a statement.

"AngloGold Ashanti management is seeking urgent discussions with the government of Guinea to discover the reasons for the embargo and jointly with government to pursue an urgent resumption of mining activity." No one in the Guinean government was immediately available for comment on the issue.

AngloGold Ashanti, the world's second biggest gold producer which is majority owned by diversified miner Anglo American Plc, said the embargo had brought production at the mine in northern Guinea to a complete standstill.

It said Siguiri produced 58,000 ounces of gold in the first quarter of 2004 - 49,300 ounces of that for AngloGold Ashanti, or 3 percent of the company's global quarterly production. It bought an 85 percent stake in the mine one month ago.

AngloGold Ashanti, the biggest South African-based gold miner, said diesel was urgently needed to maintain critical pumps to avoid environmental damage through cyanide leaks.

The company said it was currently constructing a pumping plant at the mine which would increase output by 50 percent…

-END-

The HUI closed higher again for the 10th day in a row, yet acted very lethargic. Still no real excitement out there. The XAU rose to 90.47, up 1.22.

Gold has rallied $25 and few in the investment world are paying attention or seem to care. The Café Sentiment Indicator remains about a 4 and many of the small exploration companies are being hit with stale investor selling. Quality exploration companies like Samex (68 cents, up 4 cents) and J-Pacific Gold (34 cents Cdn, up 1 cent) are barely off their lows. Mahendra said silver was a gift at $5.80. So are the share prices of these companies and other smaller quality gold companies.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

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May 27, 2004

Gold vs. Fiat: Demanding A Divorce!

by Alex Wallenwein

http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=1584&pv=1

Spieler0815

Zitat

Dürfen wir uns demnächst auch bei anderen Unternehmen, vorzugszweise zB. Durban auf eine Übernahmeschlacht gefaßt machen ?

Was bringt Dich auf diesen Gedanken bei Durban?

Gruss

ThaiGuru

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http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/sc…pl?/current/0527135n.html

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FOR: GOLDEN STAR RESOURCES LTD.

TSX SYMBOL: GSC
AMEX SYMBOL: GSS

MAY 27, 2004 - 18:23 ET

Golden Star Announces Proposal For Combination With IAMGold

DENVER, COLORADO--(CCNMatthews - May 27, 2004) - Golden Star
Resources Ltd. ("Golden Star") (TSX:GSC; AMEX:GSS) announced
today that it has proposed a business combination with IAMGold
Corporation ("IAMGold") (TSX:IMG; AMEX:IAG) whereby shareholders
of IAMGold would receive 1.15 Golden Star common shares for each
IAMGold common share, being a premium of 13% to IAMGold
shareholders based on the closing market prices for the common
shares of IAMGold and Golden Star on the Toronto Stock Exchange
on May 27, 2004.

A transaction would be conditional, among other things, on Golden
Star having had an opportunity to perform due diligence on
IAMGold to confirm that there is nothing material and adverse
from what is disclosed in publicly available documents (which due
diligence is expected to be completed in short order once Golden
Star receives full access to necessary materials) and receiving
appropriate levels of support from IAMGold's directors and
shareholders. The transaction would also be subject to
regulatory approval.

"We believe that the proposed business combination between Golden Star and IAMGold is more beneficial to IAMGold and its shareholders than the previously announced combination between IAMGold and Wheaton River Minerals Ltd. which is scheduled to be voted upon by the shareholders of those companies on June 8, 2004" said Peter Bradford, President and Chief Executive Officer of Golden Star. The proposed business combination between Golden Star and IAMGold would result in a combined company with the
following attributes:

- a new, unhedged intermediate gold producer focused on West
Africa;

- growing production of approximately 800,000 ounces in 2005 and
beyond;

- potential synergies resulting in cost savings estimated at
approximately US$8 million annually;

- a strong balance sheet with approximately US$200 million in
cash and cash equivalents; and

- an experienced management team with a history of successfully
acquiring, constructing and operating gold mining assets in West
Africa.

In addition, Golden Star believes that the proposed combination
would be accretive to both IAMGold and Golden Star.

Golden Star has indicated that it would be pleased to meet with
the Board of Directors of IAMGold at its earliest convenience to
discuss the proposed combination and its benefits for IAMGold's
shareholders.

In a press release issued today, Coeur d'Alene Mines Corporation
("Coeur d'Alene") announced that it has proposed a business
combination with Wheaton River Minerals Ltd. ("Wheaton River").

Golden Star has entered into an agreement today with Coeur
d'Alene pursuant to which Golden Star and Coeur d'Alene have
agreed that, in the event of the completion of both the Golden
Star combination with IAMGold and the Coeur d'Alene combination
with Wheaton River, the break fees, if both payable under the
agreements between IAMGold and Wheaton River, will be netted such
that Coeur d'Alene will pay to Golden Star a fee of US$26 million
on the terms and conditions set out in the agreement.

Golden Star's financial advisors are BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc.

Conference Call and Simultaneous Webcast

A conference call and simultaneous webcast are scheduled for
Friday, May 28, 2004 at 8:00 a.m. Toronto time.

/T/

Call-in numbers: North America toll-free: 800-299-8538
International: 617-786-2902
Passcode: 394 52332

Webcast: http://www.gsr.com or through CCBN's Investor
Distribution Network,
or at http://www.companyboardroom.com

A replay of these conference calls will be available from 10:00 a.m.
Toronto time on Friday May 28, 2004 until June 28, 2004.

Replay numbers: North America toll-free: 888-286-8010
International: 617-801-6888
Passcode: 434 90897

/T/

An investor presentation summarizing this transaction will be
available on Golden Star's website at http://www.gsr.com immediately
preceding the conference call at 8:00 a.m. Toronto time on Friday
May 28, 2004.

About Golden Star

Golden Star holds a 90% equity interest in the Bogoso/Prestea
open-pit gold mine and the nearby Wassa gold project, which is
expected to commence production mid-year. Both mines are located
in Ghana in the immediate vicinity of two of IAMGold's joint
venture mines. In addition, Golden Star has a majority interest
in the currently inactive Prestea Underground mine in Ghana as
well as gold exploration interests elsewhere in West Africa and
in the Guiana Shield of South America. Golden Star has
approximately 139 million common shares outstanding.

Cautionary Statements

Statements Regarding Forward-Looking Information: Some statements
contained in this news release are forward-looking statements
within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform
Act of 1995. Investors are cautioned that forward-looking
statements are inherently uncertain and involve risks and
uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ
materially. Such statements include comments regarding estimated
production, synergies and the accretive nature of the
transaction. Factors that could cause actual results to differ
materially include timing of and unexpected events during
construction, expansion and start-up; variations in ore grade,
tonnes mined, crushed or milled; variations in relative amounts
of refractory, non-refractory and transition ores; delay or
failure to receive board or government approvals; timing and
availability of external financing on acceptable terms;
technical, permitting, mining or processing issues; fluctuations
in gold price and costs; the business of Golden Star and IAMGold
may not be integrated successfully or such integration may be
more difficult, time-consuming or costly than expected; expected
combination benefits from the Golden Star/IAMGold transaction may
not be fully realized or realized within the expected time frame.
There can be no assurance that future developments affecting the
Company will be those anticipated by management. Please refer to
the discussion of these and other factors in our Form 10-K for
2003. The forecasts contained in this press release constitute
management's current estimates, as of the date of this press
release, with respect to the matters covered thereby. We expect
that these estimates will change as new information is received
and that actual results will vary from these estimates, possibly
by material amounts. While we may elect to update these estimates
at any time, we do not undertake to update any estimate at any
particular time or in response to any particular event. Investors
and others should not assume that any forecasts in this press
release represent management's estimate as of any date other than
the date of this press release.

This press release does not constitute an offer to buy or sell,
or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, any of the
securities of Golden Star or IAMGold. Such an offer may only be
made pursuant to a registration statement and prospectus filed
with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and offer to
purchase and circular filed with Canadian securities regulatory
authorities. Golden Star plans to file with the U.S. Securities
and Exchange Commission a Registration Statement on SEC Form S-4,
and expects to mail an Offer Circular and Prospectus to IAMGold
stockholders concerning the proposed business combination with
IAMGold. WE URGE INVESTORS AND SECURITY HOLDERS TO READ THE
REGISTRATION STATEMENT, THE OFFER CIRCULAR AND PROSPECTUS AND ANY
OTHER RELEVANT DOCUMENTS TO BE FILED WITH THE SEC AND CANADIAN
SECURITIES REGULATORY AUTHORITIES, BECAUSE THEY WILL CONTAIN
IMPORTANT INFORMATION. Investors and security holders will be
able to obtain the documents free of charge at the SEC's website,
http://www.sec.gov. In addition, documents filed with the SEC by Golden
Star will be available free of charge from Golden Star Investor
Relations, 10901 West Toller Drive, Suite 300, Littleton,
Colorado USA 80127-6312, telephone no. (303) 830-9000.

-30-

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT:
GOLDEN STAR RESOURCES LTD.
Peter Bradford
President and Chief Executive Officer
+1 303 894 4613
or
GOLDEN STAR RESOURCES LTD.
Allan Marter
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
+1 303 894 4631
or
GOLDEN STAR RESOURCES LTD.
Bruce Higson-Smith
Vice President Corporate Development
+1 303 894 4622

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AngloGold gets emotional over Guinea mine closure
May 28, 2004

By Nicky Smith

http://www.businessreport.co.za/index.php?fArticleId=2092351

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www2.cdn-news.com/database/fax/2000/energold.gif]

TSX VENTURE SYMBOL: EGD

MAY 27, 2004 - 18:35 ET

Energold Announces Exceptional First Quarter Results

http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/sc…pl?/current/0527137n.html

[Blockierte Grafik: http://images.bloomberg.com/nav/bblogo.gif]

Wheaton, Iamgold Receive Separate Takeover Bids (Update3)

http://quote.bloomberg.com/app…d=aKgIbcJ1blbk&refer=home