Beiträge von ThaiGuru

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

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    CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH II


    Silver input:


    Just a tidbit of info for our Midas group: E-bay is now selling 100 oz. bars of silver for $0.99 an ounce above spot price...... Hmmmm, sounds like a bullion bank trick to me. So Silver closes at $5.92 an ounce + .99 on top. Shortage is here folks. Still might be a good deal in the long run

    Tigger


    Hey Bill,

    I sent off emails to four silver companies in which I said:


    "If Silver Standard can invest approximately 20 percent of its cash and securities in physical silver, so can Pan American/Samex/Coeur/ECU."


    I recieved the following reply from Brenda Radies, VP, Corporate Relations of Pan American Silver Corp.


    Dear Mr. MacLean: Thank you for taking the time to write to us with your views of Mr. Butler's proposal to withhold some of our production. At the moment, all of our cash, and then some, is being used to reinvest in operations, to replace reserves, add resources and/or is earmarked to fund development projects immediately at hand. Given these immediate cash needs, it would be financially difficult for us to withhold cash flow. However, once the company is profitable and generating sufficient cash to fund our internal cash needs and organic growth, we will be in the position to consider the timing of our shipments and holding production back for the most favourable terms. You should note, however, that 75% of all silver mined is produced as a byproduct, which tends to be price inelastic. That is, gold, copper, lead and zinc mines produce silver as a byproduct and they don't increase or decrease their metal production based on silver price.


    That means that the primary producers like PAAS or CDE and to some exten Hecla, account for the minority portion of the 860 million ounces of silver produced from mines and scrap each year. So even if Pan American held back all of its production for a year (10-13 million ounces currently), it is not sufficient to move the silver price alone. Unless the large by-product producers choose not to sell their silver, our withholding of production may help us reap a better price it's true, but it's overall impact will not be large. That's why our strategy is to bring our costs down to weather the low end of the silver price cycle so that we have production underway that can capitalize on the price rises, as we were able to do when silver went to $8.50. There are other strategies and other views on this matter, but at this time, we feel this is the best way to provide leverage to silver price for those who want exposure through equity investment.


    This is a fairly brief answer to an involved question, but I hope it provides some insight into our views on the withholding of silver production. If you require further information, please feel free to contact me directly.


    Sincerely,


    Brenda Radies
    Vice-President, Corporate Relations
    Pan American Silver Corp.




    This is a first from the mainstream:


    http://www.EngineeringNews.com in South Africa


    May 19, 2005


    'Gold could hit $1 000/oz'


    Corporate & Merchant Bank’s (ACMB) chief financial markets strategist, Craig Zaayman, yesterday went against the consensus by saying that he envisages a gold price of $800/oz or even $1000/oz, given current international developments.


    Zaayman was speaking at ACMB’s financial market analysis presentation in Johannesburg.


    "Demand for gold is outstripping the production of gold by about 55% a year," Zaayman said.


    "Over the last ten years, this figure has averaged around 45% a year."…


    -END-


    GATA love that analysis!


    Top Gold Fund report from my friends and staunch GATA supporters Ferdinand Lips and JP Schumacher:


    Top Gold Monitor


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/go.pdf


    The gold shares have a hard time handling prosperity. The XAU gave up more than half its gains, closing at 84.42, up 1.46, as did the HUI, which closed at 186.39, up 3.10. Sarge noted:


    HUI topped and reversed and has traded lower since this hit the wires:


    1:51PM U.S. helicopter reportedly kills 40 Iraqis at wedding party : The Associated Press reports that a U.S. helicopter fired on a wedding party early Wednesday in western Iraq, killing more than 40 people, Iraqi officials said. The U.S. military said it could not confirm the report and was investigating. Iraqis interviewed on the videotape said partygoers had fired into the air in a traditional wedding celebration. American troops have sometimes mistaken celebratory gunfire for hostile fire.


    –END-


    Inflation talk is finally permeating Wall Street, which they hate because it means higher interest rates down the road. Higher rates means lower stock valuations.


    It also should mean higher gold prices. With oil perched to take out $42 per barrel, the dollar looking very toppy, and the Iraq mess worsening on a weekly basis, gold and silver should be flying. It is only a matter of time before they will be.


    GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!


    Appendix


    MIDAS


    May 15, 2004


    Time Bomb
    by Sean Corrigan


    Warren Buffett also frets on this.


    Not bad, for government work.....


    The BIS derivative survey reveals that, as of Dec 2003, the global derivatives market amounted to $234 trillion of notional contracts, of which some 75% - or $175 trillion - are interest rate-related (and 80%, or $142 trillion, of those OTC).


    Risk - much of it unquantifiable and much of it, no doubt in the hands of those who either can't understand it at all, or who are too reliant on flawed models, which are usually oblivious to non-linear, network effects - now stands some 2.7 times higher than it did when LTCM blew up in 1998.


    Over the year, the 1% Fed, the 0% BOJ, the 2% ECB and the 0-point-something SNB - in the pursuit of the harmful myth of 'macro-economic stability' - managed to encouraged a massive 41% jump in outstandings - a climb fully 3 ½ times faster than the change in OECD total GDP, which was estimated to have been $3.12 trillion (a figure itself flattered greatly by a decline in the USD which helped take 'real' growth from a paltry 2% to a nominal USD rate of 11.9%).


    It also means that the Global Casino Economy racked up a whisker under $22 in interrelated risk transactions for every $1 of estimated growth in its Physical counterpart in 2003 - surely testimony to a financial system spinning wildly out of control.


    Perhaps even more incredibly, that $234 trillion now amounts to $36,750 - or close to 10 months' income for the median household in the US - for every last one of the estimated 6.3-odd billion men, women and children on the planet, many of whom would be lucky to earn that sort of money in the course of three whole generations!


    O tempora! O mores!

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

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    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH


    The US stock market reversed course in the late going with the DOW going from up 100 and change to down 30 at 9837. The DOG gave up 30+ gains to close unchanged at 1898.


    Here is a good one to note:


    With a silly grin, I watch this 110 pt. Dow rally turn negative. CNBS wants to blame the sudden surge in oil prices today for the cause. However, my instincts tell me that it is more attributed to Intel’s shareholders voting today "for" the company to expense employee stock options. Why shareholders want this, is a puzzle to me since the stock could adjust downward 40% based on fundamentals. Realizing that this event may affect many other Silicon Valley companies like HWP and APPLE, some large institutions may see this as a watershed event for the beloved tech sector.


    Regards,
    W


    The dollar dropped .75 to 90.66 and the euro rose .65 to 120.


    A toppy dollar:


    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/US/64


    Oil surged to $41.50. It was a big day for commodities as the CRB leaped 4.80 to 271.85.


    Bonds closed weak with the June falling 22/32 to 104 15/32.


    Raise the rates, don’t raise them. China and the US are dancing to the same tune. Meanwhile, markets gyrate all over the place, up and down and down and up, adding up to a big zipdeedoodah.


    May 19 (Bloomberg) -- Copper rose for a third day in London amid news that China, the world's biggest copper user, may hold off raising interest rates that would have cut economic growth.
    Chinese inflation remains below 5 percent and policy makers want more time to assess the effectiveness of measures taken so far to cool an investment boom, according to central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan. –END-


    GATA’s Mike Bolser:


    Hi Bill:


    The Fed added $5.25 Billion in repurchase agreements today, May 19th 2004, an action that had no effect on the repo pool ($34.12 Billion).


    The DOW 30-day moving average has started down and we must watch this trend closely in order to detect any net change in the ma trend. The DOW still remains well below its ma and the Fed still hasn't reacted to strongly support it with repos. We are at an interesting flex point, the outcome of which we give us more information about how the Fed currently operates its repo machine.


    At this hour (11AM) the DOW has moved up to 10,090 in a smallish rebound. The 10-year treasury is sinking again and the 30-year bond yield hovers at 5.5% its recent high. These indicators tell us that the Fed isn't happy and that at some point it will be forced to raise the Fed Funds rate, an action that the "markets" won't like at all. It will mean that the Fed will be forced also to provide even more DOW repo support.


    Gold is doing a bit better today but we must be wary of future counter attacks and have a plan to profit from those inevitable events. Shorting the dollar index and taking a simultaneous long gold position (with a metal purchase or a vehicle that closely tracks the PM fix) is not a bad way to play their game.
    Mike


    Chuck checked in this morning:


    Good so far, and this while the shorts cover on an option expiration week and the bond market strong. I am certain that the record bond longs in the commercials mean that we will have a rally in the interest rates because of the market coming off and the dollar weakening as a result. Today may break the $6 rule if this happens. From what I can see, there is still a great hesitancy to buy anything speculative. Very nervous gold bulls. Chuck


    This bears watching:


    Reuters – May 19 – 11 AM central time:


    BEIJING China cranked up the pressure on Taiwan President Chen Shui-bianon Wednesday, the eve of his inauguration, telling him not to underestimate its warning that it will crush independence moves at any cost.


    For the third straight day, Chinese state media editorials and top scholars made doomsday prophecies as Chen prepared for his second four-year term.


    "Twenty-three million Taiwan people are being pushed towards the brink of danger by Taiwan separatists," the official Xinhua news agency said in a commentary.


    "If the 'Taiwan independence' activists miscalculate the situation...all the conditions for safeguarding peace across the strait will be lost," it said.


    "If this indeed happens, the Taiwan separatists who provoked the start of war will become the chief culprits for ruining Taiwan stability and prosperity and be condemned throughout the ages by the Chinese people."


    In his inauguration speech on Thursday, Chen is expected to discuss his intention to forge ahead with plans for a new constitution, which Beijing views as tantamount to a formal declaration of statehood.


    -END-


    Word of US market manipulation is spreading:


    From Ike Lossif of the Aegean Capital Group, Inc.:


    The market is the market of course, but the manipulation is getting increasingly blatant and out of hand. Particularly appalling is that the pro's know it, and understand how little it would take to bring it back under control, but as long as the money is flowing they will say nothing. But they will whine when the markets are deadly dull and the average investor once again shuns equities as they did in the 1970's.


    FRAUD AND DECEPTION IS THE ORDER OF THE DAY!


    I have always believed that the stock market is the heart of the capitalist system. The ability to raise capital by young companies thru the efficiency of the financial markets has enabled our country to achieve wealth unmatched by any other country in the post-Industrial Age. Unfortunately over the past decade, and especially over the past five years, the financial markets have been transformed into a huge casino and this is an understatement. In a recent email to me, Mr. Martin Goldberg, put it in much more blatant terms:


    "...with the stock market appearing like brothel with all the late trading, insider trading, program trading, accounting shenanigans, earnings management, insider selling, and media spin, etc., who in their right mind can hold Exxon Mobil (in a college savings account yet) when it goes to $36?"


    "Brothel?" That's a pretty strong word. Yet, it totally encapsulates the disgust of many professionals when it comes to the un-ending "late trading, insider trading, program trading, accounting shenanigans, earnings management, insider selling, and media spin" that seem to be the order of the day. A good example in my humble view is what took place on Friday, May 7, 2004. As many may recall, on that day the bond market plunged and so did many stocks at the NYSE. In fact, that day the NYSE experienced one of the worst breadth ratios ever, 12:1! On that day 256 issues advanced, while 3152 declined and the NYSE fell 119 points. Interestingly, NASDAQ and most notably the NDX held rather well. The NDX fell just 12.82 points, while the shameless talking heads at CNBC marveled throughout the entire day at the "strength" and "resilience" exhibited by tech, which they immediately interpreted to be a "good thing" for the market!


    At the end of the day, I looked under the surface to see how much strength there really was in tech. On that day NASDAQ had 832 advancing issues, 2343 declining issues, 587,109,000 shares made up the up volume, and 1,012,777,000 made up the down volume. To begin with I do not think a market with a breadth 3:1 in favor of decliners is a "strong" market, despite the blubbering to the contrary by the spin masters of CNBC and the like. Second, in examining the up volume that accompanied the up issues, this is what I found out:


    Just 18 stocks of the 832 advancing ones were responsible for 347,000,0000 shares of the 587,109,000 that made up the up volume. In other words, 2% of all advancing issues were responsible for 59% of all the up volume! Moreover, by some "strange" coincidence, all of those 18 stocks were components of the NDX!


    http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm


    -END-


    Auckland Ed notes:


    Did you see this on kitco....Ed


    Date: Wed May 19 2004 13:30
    trotsky (money supply) ID#377387:


    It has been brought to my attention, that recently, there has been an ominous spike in the M1 rate of change - what's noteworthy is that since 1997, similar spikes have only occurred at the depths of various financial crisis situations, from LTCM to 9-11. is anyone aware of a crisis? or is there a developing crisis that they're trying to head off at the pass, or one that's already acute but hasn't yet penetrated the market mind? or something that is happening sub rosa ? (note e.g. FNM's $10 billion off-balance sheet derivatives losses, which amount to 2/3rds of FNM's capital). very curious


    -END-


    In early April I was fortunate to be the keynote speaker at GATA supporter Rich Radez’s natural resource conference in Chicago. He sends fellow Café members his regards from China:


    Dear Bill,


    Greetings from Mudanjiang City, China. We are on the road again. Some of you may recall our reports from South Africa. We are the first gold share specialists from the US to visit this unknown province. We were 1 mile from the Russian border this morning. We the first to visit kilometer 88 in Venezuela, and the Hemlo and Carlin District. I and Dr. Roberts, who discovered the Carlin Trend, walked that trend many years ago. This province may have that very same potential. It adjoins Mongolia, the same trend that Ivanhoe is on runs into the western side of this province. There is also a major trend on the eastern side of the province which is the size of Spain. Tomorrow we will attend the official signing of an agreement that will give all mineral right of the province to Savor Resources (SVYR). This has never been done before by any mining company in any province. This panicked down move in gold shares has created a buying opportunity of a lifetime in many gold stocks like Savoy. The mining geological society of the province has identified 450 natural resource targets over the last 46 years. A recent article in the Northern Miner on China did not even cover Savoy. As always, I am way ahead of the crowd. I am impressed in the Chinese people, their work ethic, Savoy's management team, and the potential for a long term growth situation. What a better way to participate in China's growth than owning an undervalued, aggressive resource company. We are now in a global world, so you better start investing globally. More from China tomorrow. Yes, I do own this stock personally.


    Rich Radez
    rradez@danoyes.com


    An email from Mahendra to me last evening. I am working on a get together around 5:30 on May 27th in Dallas, which will be for Café members, GATA supporters and any press I can find:


    Dear Brother,


    Week day is over today and from tomorrow rising time is starting. From tomorrow on metal - no selling, no short, buyingggggg time, please tell everybody.

    Thanks & God bless
    Mahendra


    Derivatives:


    Bill,


    In analyzing the Comptroller of the Currencies Derivatives Report for year end 2003, I was interested to see that only three US banks hold 99% of the US derivatives contracts for gold and other precious metals.


    They are: JPM, Citibank, and HSBC.


    JPM has the most gold derivatives by far, controlling 53.4% of the total, with Citibank holding 21.1% and HSBC with 25.4%. HSBC increased their gold derivatives the most since the 2002 year end report, with a whopping 18.6% annual increase.


    The notional value of JPM's gold derivatives represent 6.5% of their TOTAL (not risk capital) assets, at 41,118,000,000. That's 41 billion dollars worth of gold derivatives, or at $390 per ounce, 105.4 million ounces of gold!


    JPM shifted their gold portfolio to the shorter term, increasing maturities of less than one year by 12.7%, and decreasing maturities of over 5 years by 25%. Maturities of 1 to 5 years were essentially flat. Overall, their contract values grew by 2.6%.


    The non-gold precious metals derivatives market is significantly smaller than the gold market, by almost a factor of 20. in non-gold precious metals contracts, HSBC is by far the leader with 63% of the total derivative contracts, which are not broken down among silver, platinum, palladium, etc., increasing their business by 60% in one year. JPM actually decreased their exposure by 26%, but Citibank, which is by far the smallest player, increased their non-gold derivatives exposure by 928%!


    Best,
    Jesse


    I asked Jesse if he would be kind enough to comment on the gold derivatives:


    According to the US Comptroller of the Currency report for year end 2003, three banks control 99% of the US precious metals derivatives contracts, of which the vast majority are gold. They are: JPM, HSBC, and Citibank. The total value of these contracts is over 81 billion dollars.


    The US gold derivatives of one year maturity or less held by these three banks have a contract value of 40.2 billion dollars, or approximately 187 million ounces of gold at today's prices. That's 3,235 metric tonnes. According to the April 2004 GFMS mining survey total GLOBAL production of gold in 2003 held nearly steady at 2,593 tonnes.


    This type of concentration of a global business in the hands of three banks is unprecedented. They are clearly in a position to dominate not only the US market for gold, but the global markets as well. This is not a 'free market.' It is obviously an oligopoly, and most likely in violation of antitrust trade standards in the US, if not in Europe, because of the huge unregulated concentration of market presence in the hands of a few corporations, and in an admittedly unregulated market at that!
    Jesse


    "JPM shifted their gold portfolio to the shorter term, increasing maturities of less than one year by 12.7%, and decreasing maturities of over 5 years by 25%."


    This fits in perfectly with what GATA has been pounding away at for some time. As the gold producers lift their hedges (longer term maturities), The Gold Cartel’s JPM replaces some of them with short term maturity derivatives.


    A ranting Café member. Sounds like me:


    Hi Bill:
    With the fundamentals favoring gold looming larger every single day, the gold bull appears ready, willing and able to resume romping and stomping, spurred on by physical market tightness, a fading dollar, rising interest rates, relentlessly escalating energy costs, declining real wages, officially neglected unemployment, continuing military misadventurism, etc. And all at the least opportune time for the fresh shorts and disgorged longs. From such damage as we have sustained do bull markets rear up and kick *ss.


    Fully expecting the $6 rule to be enforced today, and knowing that traders are also aware of this phenomenon, some selling, due solely to "the rule," is to be expected. Admittedly, it's difficult not to be cynical, with the repeated heavy-handed micro-mismanagement by the ESF/PPT of every market they are able to temporarily exert their autocratic control over. However, the artificial nature of the such intervention remains totally unsupported by deteriorating fundamentals, therefore I remain resolute in my core gold and silver positions, knowing that patience will be rewarded simply because the passage of time favors gold now and for a good long while, given the uncorrected excesses of our debt-based economy gone wild.


    If the current stock market rally has been facilitated to prevent the equity markets from daring to razz Greenspan's re-coronation, what does the rally in precious metals and the selling by the bond vigilantes suggest about the helicopter-money regime of Herr Bubblemeister?


    Gold is winning the battle today,
    Tom K


    GATA’s Sid Reynolds is on the case in Australia:


    RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) in below email explain why leased gold is not a lost asset. ie "Standard accounting treatment requires that the gold loan should be shown as an asset of the Bank in gold."
    ... "Standard accounting treatment!!??". I thought this conflicted with GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles).
    Regards,
    Sid


    Subject: Your enquiry about gold



    Dear Mr Reynolds,

    As with its other assets, primarily government bills and bonds and bank deposits, the Reserve Bank of Australia like other investors or fund managers lends cash, or in this case gold for a return. In the case of gold, all loans are fully collateralised by Government bonds. This collateral is topped up on a daily basis depending on movements in prices for gold the Australian dollar and the securities provided as collateral. Consequently, were our counterparty to fail, and this is unlikely as the banks with whom we deal have very high credit ratings, the Bank would be able to use this collateral to buy back the gold. As the loan is denominated in gold, the IMF regards it as part of Australia's Official Reserve Assets. Standard accounting treatment requires that the gold loan should be shown as an asset of the Bank in gold.


    For further information, you might refer to our 2003 Annual Report page 32; you can access the relevant section 'Operations in Financial Markets' from this link:


    http://www.rba.gov.au/PublicationsAndResearch/AnnualReports/
    AnnualReport2003/operations_financial_markets.pdf
    You may also find interesting the Media Release the Bank issued on 3 July 1997 related to its sales of gold.
    http://www.rba.gov.au/MediaReleases/1997/mr_97_13.html
    Hope this helps,


    Ken Broadhead
    Senior Community Relations Officer
    Media Office
    Phone 612 9551 9731
    Fax 612 9221 5528


    Orignal Message:


    I have received information from various sources that all of RBA's gold has been leased out. While this is not a problem on the surface, there are 3 problems ie -the Bullion Bank that RBA has leased to has sold the gold, so the gold is gone (this is like a tenant in a flat, selling the flat - how can the RBA permit the Bullion Bank to sell this gold that the Bullion Bank doesn't own) -if the gold is sold by Bullion Bank, then the gold is gone, so why doesn't it show up as a lost asset on RBA books (just as if RBA had sold it). It is bizarre that the RBA books still show it there as an asset when the gold has been leased then sold. -why bother leasing anyway? If gold is such a "relic", as many anti-gold CB's claim, why not just sell the lot, instead of getting the feeble 1%pa for leasing it. At least that way, you don't have to worry about getting it back, which could be a much higher prices since gold has increased over $100 per ounce in the last couple of years? Even the recent fall was due primarily to paper gold manipulation, which without physical to back it, is only a temporary drop.


    Regards,
    Sid Reynolds


    ====

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

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    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    The John Brimelow Report


    (?) acts; also useful Faber & Bianco


    Wednesday, May 19, 2004


    Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $6.80, PM $$7.99, with world gold at $377.95 and $ 379.55. Ample for legal imports. The rupee firmed today and the Indian stock market rose 2.7% as the business community exulted over the likely appointment of a Prime Minister deemed reformist and pro-business. Various authorities made positive noises, and even the Monsoon obliged by making an early appearance in the South! Since the old Venerosian "wealth effect" concept works best in India, this is positive for the friends of gold.


    World gold surged during Japanese hours, not due to TOCOM operators as far as the statistics show. Volume slumped 25% to a miserable 16,035 Comex equivalent, and the active contract closed up only 1 yen. Open interest slipped 357 Comex equivalent. World gold, however was $3.55 above NY’s close at the end in Tokyo.


    After a dull day in which ample selling came forward:


    UBS:


    "speculators sold June and August Comex futures."


    ScotiaMocatta:


    "fund offering capped the market…New York dealers were scale down buyers, absorbing much of what the funds sold. "


    TheBullionDesk:


    "The emergence of fund selling eventually force gold to a low of $375.25 but the usual source of bargain hunter and physical buying prevented further falls leaving gold to close the day at $375.80",


    experienced observers were woken up by an abrupt 2.4% surge in gold equities in the final hour of NY trading. Astonishingly enough, a broad-based rally in commodities and related equities got under way as soon as trading recommenced.


    One humbly wonders at the prescience of markets.


    Mark Faber has published a valuable critique of the Greenspan Fed years, evaluating it as a sequence of bubbles. How valuable advance knowledge of these bubbles would have been! Bianco Research has a useful TIPs spread chart today, plotting it against the 10 year actual CPI level, and pointing out:


    Zitat

    "for the first time the marketplace believes inflation will be greater over the next ten years than it was over the previous ten."


    JB

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

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    May 19 - Gold $382.50 up $7 - Silver $5.90 up 24 cents


    Gold/Silver Pop, $6 Rule AGAIN, Gold Shares Continue Up Move


    Zitat

    The meaning I picked, the one that changed my life: Overcome fear, behold wonder...Richard Bach, author Jonathon Livingston Seagull


    The obviousness of the gold scandal grows by the day. We opened up $3 to $4 higher in the Comex gold pits and quickly ran up $6 and change when The Gold Cartel implemented its $6 rule as always. That was it for the entire rest of the day except for a few brief forays above $7. After the first half hour of trading, gold was only allowed to go up an additional 50 cents.


    An explanation of the $6 rule for new Café members:


    For the past couple of years gold advances have been limited to $6+, while there is no limit to how gold is crushed to the downside. Only one time has gold been able to escape this rule. The day after it was sent right down again as punishment. A gain of $7.20 or so on the day still qualifies within the $6 rule parameters. $8 and up would decisively break it.


    Meanwhile, we see yesterday’s mysterious gold share move in the last 45 minutes telegraphed what was coming today. The crooks on Wall Street continue to play with the gold/gold share market as if it is their private casino. They rig the games any time they want and take the markets up and down when they want, fleecing you in the process. Can it be any more blatant?


    From yesterday’s MIDAS:


    "There is nothing better for a market than to turn around like the HUI did for no apparent reason. Wouldn’t surprise me if word was sent out to the cabal crowd to cover shorts and get on the long side."


    Clearly the word did go out to the cabal crowd and they cleaned up, just like they did on May 5th and 6th. From the MIDAS on the 6th with gold closing down $5.40:


    Orchestrated Gold Share Sell-off Yesterday Predicted Today’s Action


    Dear Congressional Staff member (sometime in 2006 again):


    It’s a day later and you will be able to recognize (by what transpired the past 18 hours) how obvious and extensive the manipulation of the gold market really was. As noted in yesterday’s commentary the gold shares collapsed in the last 30 minutes for no apparent reason. The US stock market was quiet, as were all the financial markets. Only the gold shares were battered in a bout of program trading. What you need to do is find out who the major gold share sellers were and then tie them to a pattern over the years


    The hardest core conspiracy theorists in the GATA camp emailed me last evening categorically stating gold was going to be mauled today by The Gold Cartel as a result of yesterday’s obnoxious ploy by this bunch of crooks. They were dead on, as usual. Once again the junta stole money from honest Americans. Clearly The Gold Cartel head maestro put out the late word yesterday to his colleagues in the cabal that gold was to be hit hard today, which is why Goldman Sachs was selling during the Comex session. This latest manipulation could be the second most blatant one after the Bank of England gold sale auction announcement in 1999. What we have here is nothing less than a criminal operation run by a bunch of white-collar thugs. They must be punished and some need to be put in jail. The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee now has 7 plus years worth of evidence on these bums and will be happy to bring much of it to Washington to present to your investigating committee.


    ***


    All need be done here is to change the goldshare/gold from sales to buys to have this fit perfectly for yesterday and today. What a joke! This is a screaming scandal and the regulators do nothing. They are beyond contempt.


    The bullish consensus numbers came out today and they are just that: bullish, very much so. Gold was 29, silver 23, euro 21 and Canadian Dollar 22. Rarely does gold ever get this low.


    The gold open interest rose 510 contracts to 253,647, while the silver open interest fell 645 contracts to 89,376.


    A bottom for gold?


    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/64


    Silver came out of the box strongly also and never looked back, closing right off its highs for the session. It has all sorts of gaps on the upside to shoot for. Other than the antics of the cabal crowd, it would not be down at these levels and should not stay down below $6 too much longer.


    Sure looks line a bottom for silver:


    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/74


    It’s now 3 PM central time. Gold is down 90 cents in the Access market, which leaves us up a net $6.10 for the day. Sheesh!

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

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    CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH II


    From Dave Lewis in his "Morning Thoughts" commentary:


    One of the elements of Lemetropolecafe's daily Midas report I find most helpful in my own analysis is John Brimelow's coverage of the physical demand for gold in India, China and other regional centers. Lately, Mr. Brimelow's commentary has been pointing to heavy Indian Gold imports and the collapse of India's main stock market over the past few days has proven, at least thus far, the virtue of those Gold investments.


    According to press reports the catalyst for the sell-off was the surprise loss of the BJP incumbents to the Congress Party led by Sonia Gandhi. Given the recent loss of support, according to recent polls, for the Bush administration here in the US I can't help but wonder if this change of sentiment might have financially ominous implications for our markets here at home. The initial response of the Indian authorities was to shut down stock trading, which reminds me of the virtues of holding assets, like the precious metals, which aren't tied into the system. As savers found most recently in Argentina, the virtue of Gold sometimes isn't apparent until you really need, by which time it might be too late.


    From a broader perspective, the ever increasing reliance of the financial intermediation process on political support and vice versa lends itself to volatility of this nature. While unfortunately, to borrow a well worn economic metaphor, the horses are long gone from the barn and thus closing the door will do little, the importance of a separation of financial and political power may now become more evident, particularly if the current, in my view, faux attempt to limit credit growth continues to weigh on global stock markets.


    With US authorities apparently willing to try to hold up the US$, inflation will, to an extent, be exported. However, the willingness of foreigners to take this bitter economic medicine is not infinite. Having, quite successfully, urged the adoption of US style financial markets ideology, US policy makers may soon find that their foreign counterparts are caught in exactly the same trap that they are trying to avoid. To the extent that political support is generated, in part, through the financial markets and to the extent that democracy has spread sufficiently such that a stock market swoon invites political change, inflationist policy makers seems caught on the horns of a dilemma.


    That is, they can try to rein in the credit creation process to contain rising inflationary pressures but at cost of a stock market decline and by extension loss of political control. Alternatively, they can ignore the inflationary pressures and keep the markets up while the loss of purchasing power of the currency foments more political dissension. Milton Friedman's answer to the dilemma in the arena of wages was to take advantage of the common man's lack of understanding of the inflationary process and its causes and let inflation run.


    While there are still a few months before the November election, the writing may already be visible on the wall. Attempts to jam the markets to inspire a ballot box result can go horribly wrong, particularly if the incumbent party loses. I'm quite interested to see the response of the new Indian government to this equity market decline. It seems to me as if the race to devalue fiat currencies just got a bit hotter. It is, I believe, worth noting that every fiat money scheme in history has eventually collapsed for just such reasons. The power to create money, as opposed to earning it, is always eventually abused. Got Gold?


    Dave Lewis
    http://www.chaos-onomics.com


    From Richard Russell, sound familiar?


    Question -- "Russell, with galloping inflation in prices and the money supply, why isn't gold going through the roof?


    Answer -- When gold hit its highs during the first quarter of 2004 too many people got aboard. Ads for gold dotted the newspapers. A lot of weak hands moved into gold. The decline in gold that began in March washed out most of the speculators.


    A second possible reason for gold weakness is as follows. Almost every central bank in the world has been printing paper money. Just as the central banks and the various governments don't want their constituents to know they are debasing their currencies, they also don't want gold to rise. The one thing that tells the public that inflation is raging is steadily rising gold.


    Therefore, the central banks, their "friends" in the commercial banks, and the brokers with close government connections have done everything possible to keep gold from rising. But holding the natural forces down is like stepping on a spring. When the foot is taken off the spring, the compressed energy is released. Somewhere ahead, gold will fully express itself. But it will happen without the blessings of the central banks or the various governments.


    -END-


    In other words, gold will explode when The Gold Cartel is blown out of the water and carried out on GATA’s stretchers.


    The gold shares came out of the block like gangbusters and then sold off when gold was pummeled on the instructions of The Gold Cartel. The XAU only ended up with a pitiful .25 gain to 81.46, while the HUI gained 2.70 to 180.88. It could not get through key resistance at 184, making a 183.83 high for the day.


    HUI


    http://bigcharts.marketwatch.c…&o_symb=hui&freq=1&time=8


    The big picture for our camp continues to improve in almost every way imaginable. We know why gold is not streaking for $500 and who has knocked it down to these levels. With the cash market so strong, their efforts to keep gold down have to be strained somewhat. All we can do is monitor the situation and stay positioned for the historic move which is on the way.


    GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!


    Appendix


    Mahendra was right on about predicting a big surge today. He wasn’t counting on The Gold Cartel stopping it cold in the most blatant of fashions... (Written to his members yesterday)


    Dear Members,


    At this current stage investors are confused by very many issues like: -


    The USA trade deficit
    Stock market uncertainty
    The impending rise in interest rates?
    Housing market bubble; more rise or collapse?
    Currencies uncertainty and the question of real value
    Higher oil prices and its impact
    USA elections, Iraq war and falling metal prices etc.
    What to do with money if one has cash or what decisions should be made at this point when things are not clear and one has already invested money in any sector.
    Yes, I will presently come onto these points but first let me start with the good news concerning metal prices because I owe a lot (love and support) to the metal community and would like to give them the right path and guidance at this point. Metal prices have suffered quite heavily in the last 32 days even when oil prices were going up and the stock markets started trading in the zone of uncertainty. Economically, the USA is entering into a worst period and I hope that Greenspan and other key economists are aware of this. If however they don't know or are trying to ignore it, then I think that we are going into a most unfortunate economic melt down period and people's wealth (that is paper currencies that are factory made but not gold since it is part of nature) will be wiped-out. Soon gold will become the most powerful currency and finally the US$, the EURO and the POUND (paper currencies will lose the battle against Gold. In fact I will use a strong word and say that paper currencies will SURRENDER to gold.


    The astrological wave is indicating the way to go but if we chose to go against it then we shall be entering into a major crisis: Here is small note on what I see.


    All metals should rise (they are down because of external forces or the use of shorting gold on paper contract by key bank or authority with support of big trader. They can short gold because they don't care even if prices goes up because they can print more Dollar to short more gold on the trading floor or computer. They want to make sure that gold must stay down. They can keep running a factory 24 hours and printing more and more - may that be the reason why paper prices are going up???????.......). But this is ending soon because they want go with wave, they want to hold the hand of gold and that is what Jupiter is indicating. Why upward trend will come read below statement.


    Oil should rise (prices are rising). There must be some connection with the Iraq war and indeed that is why the war was started in the first place. I see biggest supply threat is coming from middle east.


    If you read my 2002, 2003 and 2004 World and Financial prophecies, I have very clearly stated in the USA sections that the country can only survive if it is in control of both OIL and GOLD. I think that the USA is unfinished in the battle to control oil. Let us also see what they will do with gold.


    Today my comments will surprise everybody. In my prophecy, I clearly discern that the reason behind the current downward trend in gold prices is neither speculative nor is it that people have lost faith in it. I see the commencement of a big game plan in gold instituted by the higher authority (may be Federal Reserve) in which they will play a key role. I see before they can start, they want to first throw out the common investor from the metal market.


    The oil prices rise of 2004 which I predicted last year is coming true. Therefore, the gold and silver prices rise is definitely on the way and I am 100% sure that I will soon pass this final test of my work.


    Stock market – As you all know, my predictions on the USA and the world markets are very negative from the Middle of 2004 (you can find more details in my book) and this will bring about a major crisis in the BANKING AND FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS SECTOR. Next year many big ones may be forced to close down.


    Housing Market – A major downward trend will soon start in the USA and EUROPEAN house markets. Many will decide to give back to banks and this will result in a major negative impact on the banking sector.


    Currency Meltdown – Paper currency will lose its charm like the Zimbabwean Dollar did in the last four years, sliding from 8 to 5000 against a US Dollar. I see the same scenario unfolding for all key (including US$, Euro, Pound) currencies against GOLD.


    There will be a rise by Asian countries and Russia and they will adopt a negative attitude towards the super power and also strive to acquire oil and gold because they shall come to the realisation that their economies cannot be sustained without both these natural products. If you didn’t know, then you better be informed - Two years back I made the prediction that an oil war would be waged (USA-IRAQ) and that soon after this a great war for GOLD would begin and last 40 years.


    I don’t want to write much more because I know that my English is not that good but I am sure Bill Murphy will better explain to you in further details on http://www.lemetropolecafe.com on 27th of May. This is because I am going to see him in Dallas on 27th MAY (any date change we will let you know) and we have plenty to discuss.


    If you want to read in detail on all these areas you can go through my book "2004 World and Financial prophecies".


    Let us now see what this week says:


    GOLD:


    I am still very upset with my India trip because it was due to this that I was unable to properly guide you on the short term. While in my book I have said "get out from metal and metal stocks around 28th March and re-enter on 12th of May", I never indicated it in my newsletter in regard to gold though I did it on silver. I know it has cost you a lot but I hope that you will forgive me for that mistake and I am sure that my advice and guidance will play a key role in recovering your loses.


    During this week Gold will steadily go up except for one day when it will have a scary downward trend. It will however strongly recover on the same day or the next. Those who don’t like uncertainty can buy gold on FRIDAY and hold for 42 days.


    SILVER:


    Silver is still trading at sale or discounted prices. Obtain it because below $5.80 is almost like getting it for free. NOW FIRST TARGET IS $6.38.


    PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM:


    For the last one month I have been advising you to stay away from these metals but we are now very near to an upward trend. Those who want to start putting money in these metals should try their luck on Friday.


    OIL:


    After having achieved the predicted price target in the first quarter of 2004 in Silver, gold and currencies, last week oil also fulfilled the first target of $40. Last week I recommended that one could hold up to $42 but then it would go down thereafter for some time before starting the journey for $50. This week I hold the same predictions as last week concerning oil.


    CURRENCIES:


    Last week I took a break and did not give predictions on currencies because after three years of 98% accuracy on currencies I went little bit wrong in the last six weeks. But all price predictions will be fulfilled. My astrological calculations say that for this week there will be signs of a bit of a downward inclination in the US Dollar but from next week the downward journey will start for sure.


    COFFEE:


    Prices should start moving up anytime now because news of bad weather is on the way.


    WORLD EVENTS:


    After undergoing a harmful phase in the last 40 days of uncertainty in middle-east and Iraq, I now see the start of a more positive and peaceful period for the world. The first good news I foresee and which will surprise many concerns the USA- it will start calling back its soldiers from Iraq.


    Many people are asking what I see regarding India’s future after the election results because last year I saw and predicted the events unfolding currently. I predicted that Sonia Gandhi/Congress party would win and that Vajpayee would face defeat. Many of my friends warned me ‘MAHENDRA you are taking a big risk’ but my response was as always- that I only predict what I see. I never go along with the flow of the current trend or laws of probability. This is why I am predicting a great rise in metal prices though many are warning me that I am committing a big mistake.


    I see a smooth period for India and there is nothing to worry about. Relations with Pakistan will improve more.


    FINAL NOTE:


    After achieving success in one’s career, one should always start to search for her/himself. This can be achieved through meditation and good Karma because each day we are getting closer and closer to the final destination. We are powerless regarding this and have got no choice but to depart. Time will remain constant, always there and everything else will remain but we won’t be here. Know yourself therefore and enjoy life by way of good Karma, love and peace. Hate, war, anger and ego shall not result to any good but only serve to bring evil closer to you, your family, society and country.


    Once again I exhort you to enjoy peace and love….


    Thanks & God Bless
    Mahendra


    http://www.mahendraprophecy.com


    Hi Bill Murphy!


    More and more I'm coming to regard this life and death struggle to survive the coming man-made financial holocaust as a gigantic game of chess. (Did you read the 2nd.half of my last memo, after the bit about abbreviations?) Feel free to quote any of this stuff I send you and I'm happy to be counted as a GATA committee-man or Crusader! I was in my local coin shop yesterday buying $300 worth of silver rounds - an Australian 50c piece struck in 1968 - and Steve (the owner) was saying that although 50 million coins were minted only 32 million were issued because on the opening day they already had 58c worth of silver in them! So the Government immediately began buying them back! (It takes 3 silver "rounds" to make an ounce of silver and last week they were AU$10 for 3 and this week AU$9 or $3 each or $300 for my 100 coins.)


    With the Aussie dollar at US.68c and silver at US$5.70 = AU$8.87 it's about the most efficient way to buy silver right now here. Now here's the interesting bit: Steve said he sells thousands of these coins every week in the trade and they are going to melt to make up bars of silver for the futures business! He guesses there are only about 5 million left and at this rate they'll start to have numismatic value. Oh! that the rest of our currency held its value like our humble 50c round! (Our 50'c are now the same large size but hexagonal and cupro-nickel clad silver look-a-likes.)


    Even a mint condition silver round is only a $1 so he's going to get me a couple. The beauty of these coins is they will always be coin of the realm and therefore can't go below 50 cents. If you want me to source you some I'd be happy to arrange it for you.


    Getting back to the great game: I can't believe these very rich and powerful people don't know exactly what they are doing. They know the fate of the Weimar Republic - they won't be running around with wheelbarrow loads of paper money to buy loaves of bread! They'll be alighting from their regular limos with bars of gold buying up bakeries! The only way we can beat them is to get there first - to the gold and the silver. Which means the futures market is possibly already too risky - but how else can we leverage our meagre funds?


    The GATA army should, I believe, use silver futures to make thousands but every so often, as profits build up TAKE DELIVERY. I'm fearful they'll change the rules, as they did with the Hunt Brothers. So we should taper off our futures trading. If I'm right, right now both gold and silver will start roaring up and it will be us competing with these bastards to buy the stuff! They'll still short it massively from time to time to scare the price down - we should spot these times and short it also with tight stop-losses in place, then double our longs at the bottoms and ride them up and keep taking delivery!


    You and GATA have been like Noah building the Ark. It's too late to save those who won't listen. They are doomed. We should seriously consider where to go apres le deluge.America is not going to be a pretty place. Australia perhaps? New Zealand? I don't care to think of 240 million Americans baying for your blood because you were right! It would be ironic for you to be killed by a mob you tried to help after surviving assassination by the Reserve Bank's hit men....It really will be like Atlas Shrugged with the looters and moochers. Wasn't Ayn Rand prescient about gold?


    Love, Roger.

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

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    CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH


    No late Hail Mary rally this time for the stock market. Instead, the Hail Mary was answered by the convenient find of Sarin at exactly the right time for the market, and the PPT managed to keep the US stock market from collapsing. The DOW closed down 106 to 9907 and the DOG fell 28 to 1177.


    More negative US employment news is on the way:


    By Eric Auchard

    NEW YORK, May 17 (Reuters) - The movement overseas of U.S. white-collar jobs over the next few years is accelerating faster than previously expected, Forrester Research said on Monday, fueling a highly charged election-year issue.


    Technology market researcher Forrester said in a report titled "Near-Term Growth of Offshoring Accelerating" that it expects the number of U.S. business service and software jobs moving offshore to reach 588,000 in 2004 from 315,000 in 2003….


    -END-


    GATA’s Mike Bolser:


    Hi Bill:
    The Fed added $9.5 Billion in repos today May17th 2004, an action that caused the repo pool to rise to $42.37 Billion. The DOW continues to weakly track side ways while the repo pool's 30-Day ma continues gently up adding support as it goes.


    With the day's India stock market excitement the Fed added a modest bit of repos not appearing too concerned. The DOW is still headed up albeit flat for the moment. Even the Fed knows when not to fight and when to pile on.


    The burgeoning geopolitical mess continues to encourage those looking to commodities for safety and especially precious metals. The big buying opportunity for gold and silver has waned a bit but the trend is clearly up with a low probability of any serious pull-back.


    It is important to appreciate that during the gold cartel's counter attacks they expose them selves to the greatest vulnerability as they increase their selling. They not only face the prospect of a central bank member balking but they also face the likelihood of a refinery bottleneck delay that slips past the legal default limits of the LBMA or the COMEX. There are big potential problems when customers ask for but do not get their metal.
    Mike


    India share holders were battered:


    May 17 (Bloomberg) -- India's biggest stock markets halted trading after record declines on concern that the nation is headed for political instability and a slowdown in its economic program, including delays to asset sales.
    The National Stock Exchange and Mumbai Stock Exchange were shut for an hour, the first time the two Mumbai-based exchanges halted trading together, after stocks plunged on concern a new Congress-led government won't sell profit-making state-run companies…. – END-


    Absurdity is running amok when it comes to US financial markets in almost all regards. Bill King from his King Report last evening on the CPI:


    Because the calculation of CPI has been altered something like 9+ times over the past few years, any attempt to compare current CPI with prior CPIs is invalid. What CPI measured a decade or so ago is far different than what it measures today. This also makes GDP comparisons dubious.


    BLS has gasoline prices falling 0.3% in April and energy increasing only 0.2%. BLS says ex-seasonal adjustments gasoline prices increased 3.7%. BLS has energy prices up only 5.6% y/y and food +3.4% y/y/. Apparel prices were +0.6% but after seasonal adjustments they are zero. Did you know that BLS has club membership fees down 1.5%, which keeps recreation costs benign?


    Once again we must ask, ‘where can we get a seasonal-adjusted checkbook?’ At year end, seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted should be equal. They seldom are… For the first 4 months of 2004, BLS has CPI +4.4% SA; the core is +3% SA.


    "Partially offsetting these increases were declines in the indexes for fruits and vegetables and for nonalcoholic beverages, each down 0.6 percent." How is that vegetables prices almost every month are down sharply? They should be free by now. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm


    The 40%+ increase in dairy products to record levels is not reflected in the CPI. As we often note, the BLS in its CPI release admits that it can and will omit spike in prices. "Extreme values and/or sharp movements which might distort the seasonal pattern are estimated and removed from the data prior to calculation of seasonal factors…For the fuel oil, natural gas, motor fuels, and educational books and supplies indexes, this procedure was used to offset the effects that extreme price volatility would otherwise have had on the estimates of seasonally adjusted data for those series. For the Nonalcoholic beverages index, the procedure was used to offset the effects of labor and supply problems for coffee. The procedure was used to account for unusual butter fat supply reductions, decreases in milk supply, and large swings in soybean oil inventories affecting the Fats and oils series. For the Water and sewerage maintenance index, the procedure was used to account for a data collection anomaly and dry weather in California. For Dairy products, it mitigated the effects of significant changes in milk production levels and higher demand for cheese. For Electricity, it was used to offset an increase in demand due to warmer than expected weather, increased rates to conserve supplies, and declining natural gas inventories."


    The above BLS admission alone is sufficient reason to discredit the validity of CPI.


    Last week we tried to emphasize that although the market is priced for several rate hikes and commentary notes this each day, the behavior of Easy Al, as represented in the monetary aggregates, is diametrically opposite a tightening mode. We presented charts that show M2 is surging in 2004. The evidence strongly implies Easy Al is replicating the egregiously bone-headed policy of the late ‘70s when Art Burns tried to fool the markets by talking tough against inflation and marginally raising interest rates while he recklessly pumped out the credit…Last week M2 went postal, surging $41B and M3 exploded $58.3B. The media and The Street are quick to state M2 is growing 4.4% y/y, below the Fed’s 5% target. But they’re silent or ignorant of the fact that for 2004 M2 is growing at an 11.65% rate. Is that characteristic of tightening? Tax rebates could be 1.5-2% of the y/y increase. PS – Now there is no refi kick to M2.


    The Chicago Department of Consumer Services shows a ‘basket of groceries’ in Chicago increased from $48.06 for the week ended 4/2/04 to $48.53 for the week ended 4/30/04, 0.98% increase for the month.


    http://www.ci.chi.il.us/Consum…ceUpdates/foodbasket.html


    A year ago the price was $47.62. But the inflation just showed up in the first week of May. For the week end May 7, 2004, the price has soared to $50.56. For the week ended May 9, 2003, the price was $45.84. Ergo food prices in Chicago by this measure are up 10.3% y/y. Looks like those escalating raw material costs are now being passed on to consumers.


    http://www.ci.chi.il.us/Consum…eUpdates/foodbasket8.html


    Fed officials and intractabulls profess to be unconcerned about oil and gasoline prices. However the only other times that oil has reached $40 hostility in the Middle East threatened to disrupt supplies. The 1979-80 oil spike was due to the Iranian Islamic revolution. Desert Storm in 1991 produced the second $40 spike. Oil prices quadrupled in 1973-74 on an OPEC embargo due to the 1973 Middle East war and general inflation in the US. This time it really is different; oil’s surging prices are demand driven.


    News out of Russia:


    Ufaleynickel -- the second largest nickel and cobalt producer in Russia
    (after Norilsk Nickel) has stopped production. The reason - sharp deficiency
    of coke. Coke prices in Russia have gone up fourfold in 2004 from $95 to
    $380 per 1000 kilogram.
    In 2003 Ufaleynickel produced 7,500,000 kilograms of nickel and 2,400,000
    kilograms of cobalt. –END-


    Monday, May 17, 2004. Page 5.
    Transneft Warns of Export Peak


    By Dmitry Zhdannikov and Richard Ayton
    Reuters


    Russian crude oil exports have hit a ceiling and after many years of growth, the world's second-largest exporter cannot raise shipments unless new pipelines are built, oil pipeline monopoly Transneft said on Friday.


    Transneft head Semyon Vainshtok said in an interview that Russia, the only major non-OPEC producer to boost output significantly in recent years, may need to curb production growth very soon because of export pipeline bottlenecks.


    Vainshtok, Russia's oil export chief, said Transneft was already delivering just over 4 million barrels per day of crude, and warned he needed to expand the system by at least 800,000 bpd to sustain growth. –END-……


    This article is important enough to run the entire piece:


    Will oil prices double this summer?


    Saudi Arabia: Saturday, May 15 - 2004 at 08:48


    At the end of last week Russian oil producers threw in the towel saying they could not deliver any more oil. Oil prices spiked to the highest levels in 21 years. But this may just be the start of an old fashioned oil crisis.


    http://www.ameinfo.com/news/Detailed/39561.html


    Over the past 30 years the world has been through several major oil shocks, or oil crises in which the cost of a barrel of oil suddenly shot up causing consumer and asset price inflation, higher interest rates, and then an economic downturn or outright recession.


    Is that where we are suddenly heading in this optimistic summer of 2004 when all the world's economies are growing again after a major post-Millennium slowdown?


    Certainly capital markets voted with their feet last week, and investors headed to the exit doors. But this may just a sign of things to come.


    One statement earlier last week from Opec sent a chill down the spine of market watchers. This was a declaration from the oil cartels' president that there was nothing Opec could do about rising prices in current circumstances.


    For those who respect the Saudi Arabians as the great swing producers of the oil market this is very sobering. If Opec can not release enough oil to satisfy the thirst of an expanding world economy led by China and perhaps India, then who can?


    Russia? We got the answer on Friday last week. The Russians are up to 9.3 million barrels per day, and can add no more supply. They are at their physical limit.


    Add in very real threats of supply disruption in the Middle East and we saw Iraq exports dip by 500,000 barrels per day last week due to another sabotage incident, albeit just for a few days and you have a very precarious supply and demand equation.


    Now what can happen to reduce demand to meet available supply? Answer: higher oil prices.


    Oil prices will therefore rise to such a level that the global economy contracts and the supply and demand equation is in balance. The mechanism involved in depressing global oil demand is consumer and asset price inflation caused by high oil prices which will necessitate higher interest rates.


    In the interim period the question of how high oil prices go actually depends on how long the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates at their present ridiculously low levels. It was, after all, excessively low interest rates that sent demand for oil to present unsustainable levels in the first place.


    Given that this is a US Presidential election year, and the Fed has no desire to dampen this year's economic success story, we might see oil prices surge a lot higher before the inevitable medicine of high interest rates is taken. And the higher oil prices rise the more aggressive those interest rate rises will have to be.


    On the other hand, in order for the oil producers to invest in new capacity to meet rising real global demand for oil then we will probably continue to see oil prices well above the depressed levels of the 1990s. Otherwise, there will just be another supply and demand crunch, and another business slowdown or recession.


    So higher oil prices are probably here to stay, and today's shock headline might be tomorrow's planning baseline. In the meantime, oil prices could double this summer.


    -END-


    The Netherland’s Eric Hommelberg:


    Hi Bill,


    Last Friday I send you some notes regarding the extreme oversold condition in Gold shares and the ‘big picture’ view. The main point is : An extreme oversold condition doesn’t last for a long period of time, no matter if the primary trend is up or down. History shows sharp HUI bounces after such extreme oversold conditions as we’re witnessing today.


    An other graph which illustrates painfully clear the extreme oversold condition in Gold is the Gold/Oil ratio.


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/517.gif]


    This ratio is at an extreme low right now and again, such extremities won’t stay for a long period of time ! So what gives ? Oil going down or Gold catching up ? I would like to remind people that such extreme bearish sentiment (panic, bullish consensus <10%) as we’re witnessing lately is typical bottom stuff. Remember the Gold sell-off in March 2003 ($390 to $320) ? Well, back then there was panic all over the place too. A good example of what pain people suffered in March 2003 is shown below : (taken from JSMineset.com)



    Sunday, March 16, 2003, 9:18:00 PM EST


    Too much pain from gold stocks


    Author: Jim Sinclair


    Q: Jim, I simply cannot take the pain in gold shares.


    I have a lot of respect for your opinions. I still want to believe you that we are in a bull market for gold. But today I gave up. I sold all my gold mining stocks. There is only so much pain I can take.


    A: I am so sorry, but I certainly understand. I feel your pain and wish you all the best whichever way you go. Please stay in touch.


    Well, sounds familiar right ? Remember, March 2003 was a bloodbath for Gold shares as well as it is today ! Remember that the time to buy is when blood is in the streets (Nathan Rothchild). Remember that extreme overbought/oversold conditions don’t stay there for a long period of time (Jesse Livermore). Remember that de HUI bounced off like a rocket (>50%) after previous bloodbaths. In March 2003 I suggested in my piece "Nasdaq vs XAU" that : "one should expect then a sharp upside reversal of the XAU. Downward risk is extremely low:" END. Well, that was March 2003, today I would suggest the same !
    Best,
    Eric


    Auckland Ed over the weekend:


    Hi Bill:
    I finally decided to bite the bullet and update my portfolio today.
    Interesting findings compared to last year.
    Date Gold Shares Silver Shares
    Last Year 1/1/03 to June 1/03 -19% -7.5%
    This year 1/1/04 to today -25% -9.0%
    Then look at this!!!!
    Last Year June 1/03 to 1/1/04 +72% +91%
    In other words we went through the same thing last year and then the shares took off on a huge tear. This year is marginally worse but I expect the coming gold rally will make us forget last year. I'm projecting 400-425 on the HUI from 177 today. No one believes that's possible, but then again many "goldbugs" have sold their shares.
    I think we should keep track of the gold advisors. Let's see WHEN they turn bullish. So far NONE of them (as far as I know) have called the bottom and said BUY BUY BUY.
    Cheers from Auckland, Ed


    Saturday, May 15, 2004
    Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal


    For tax break, senators put peddle to the metal


    STEPHENS WASHINGTON BUREAU


    WASHINGTON -- Investors selling gold, silver and other precious metals would pay fewer taxes on their profits under legislation approved this week by the Senate.


    A corporate tax bill lowers the capital gains tax on precious metals from 28 percent to 20 percent.


    The Senate approved the bill 95-3 and sent it to the House, where negotiators will try to work out differences between the Senate and a House versions.


    The metals tax break would apply to "collectibles" such as gold, silver, platinum and palladium. Sens. Harry Reid, D-Nev., and John Ensign, R-Nev., sought the change, arguing that investors in precious metals should be subject to the same lower rate as holders of stocks and bonds.


    "Many people avoid investment opportunities in precious metals because of the extra tax burden," Reid said in a statement.


    Ensign said the provision would level the playing field for investment in the mining industry. "This bill is based on the principles of fairness and healthy economic growth," he said in a statement.


    Nevada is the third-largest gold producer in the world, after Australia and South Africa.


    -END-


    When the precious metals financial market scandal breaks in the future, CFTC Commissioner Gorham should be held to account:


    Dear Bill,
    This morning's Orlando Centinel (financial page) contains an article on "Silver" from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
    In response to more than 500 letters to the Commission that alleges a handful of big players colluded to keep silver prices lower than they should be. Michael Gorham said in a letter to silver investors, " the CFTC has closely monitored the silver market and we have found no evidence of manipulation. Those making the allegations have provided no proof of manipulation", Gorham said.
    At least someone felt the need to respond.
    Sincerely,
    Lee Waite


    A Café member sees it this way:


    Bill,
    talk about adding insult to injury. The cabal went to work on both gold and silver exactly 12 minutes after the London market closed. Both metals went straight down before rebounding a bit at almost the exact time. Can you find the e-mail of that guy who published that response to the complaints about the manipulation in the silver. Either that guy is a total moron or totally corrupt. Most likely both. I don't understand how the authorities can let this problem persist.
    Dave K.

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    The John Brimelow Report


    CFTC data votes up


    Monday, May 17, 2004


    Indian ex duty premiums: AM $8.27, PM $7.42, with world gold at $379.25 and $380. Comfortably above legal import levels. India experienced a wild day on the financial markets. The Bombay Stock Exchange closed down 11%, having been down 15% at one point, and the rupee had to be supported by the Reserve Bank. In the short run, any temptation by the moneyed classes to buy shares rather than gold must have been quenched.


    Japan tolerated a quite rapid fall in the yen this morning quite well. Obviously supported by off shore gold buoyancy, the active contract rose 8 yen, with overall volume jumping 132% to the equivalent of 25,595 Comex contracts: $US gold was $2.80 above NY at the close. Open interest fell the equivalent of 1,091 Comex. (NY on Friday traded 44,807 lots; open interest fell 1,902 contracts.)


    The more sophisticated observers are deeply impressed by the reversal in the net Spec positions on Comex as evidenced by the CFTC data. UBS says:


    "Gold cotr showed an increase in gross shorts of 1.7moz and a fall in Gross longs of 0.7million ounces to leave the net long position at 8.08Moz, down 2.4Moz and the smallest net long position since July 2003 …The fall in the net long is at the high end of our expectations …we suspect that there has been more short selling and long liquidation since then…We now estimate that the net long position is between 7 and 8 million ounce."
    (JB emphasis)


    NM Rothschild observes:


    "The CFTC figures showed a surprise 1.1 million ounce rise in the speculative… short position in the week to 11th May. …with the gold price now below the 200-day moving average it appears to have triggered new speculators to enter the market initiating short positions. With the gross speculative long position now at 14.14 million ounces against the gross speculative short position of 7.19 million ounces the extent of the over bought situation has been substantially reduced."


    Readers of these pages know that a substantial short interest build has been apparent for some time.


    The (in my view) most astute observer on these matters says:


    At 118 tonnes the net long is smallest since 22 July last year. Gross large speculator shorts are at their largest since 17 April 2001. Since 6 April around 330 tonnes liquidated from large spec net long, and a price $43 lower is the consequence…That gold speculator sentiment is so far out of out-of-synch now with macro soul mates [euro and long bond…] is probably the deciding factor in favour of the [bold] presumption that the next very large move is up."
    (JB emphasis)


    JB

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com



    May 17 - Gold $379.20 up $2.50 - Silver $5.65 down 6 cents


    Can It Get Any More Ridiculous?


    He who loses wealth loses much; he who loses a friend loses more; but he that loses his courage loses all...Miguel De Cervantes


    GO GATA!!!


    Just when you think the antics of The Gold Cartel and Working Group on Financial markets can’t get any more absurd or blatant, they do! This morning’s pathetic effort to crush gold and prop up the DOW was ridiculous in so far as its obvious transparency.


    As a result of the death of the interim president of the transition council in Iraq, financial markets were in turmoil around the world. The Nikkei fell more than 300 points, the European markets were sharply lower and the dollar was hit hard. Meanwhile, the Indian stock market tanked 11% and had to be shut down at one point.


    When trading opened in the US, the DOW was hit for 140 points in the early going and a slow reacting gold market rallied $6.50 when The Gold Cartel implemented its $6 Rule for the umpteenth time. That was it for gold for the day. Then, out of nowhere the PPT began their usual PUPPET SHOW when the US stock market is in deep trouble.


    From Sarge:


    10:30AM: After setting new session lows over the past half an hour, the major averages have bounced off their worst levels of the morning on the heels of a Reuters report indicating that the U.S. Military has found an artillery round loaded with Sarin nerve agent in Iraq...


    So how does finding a Sarin filled artillery shell translate into a 70 point rally in the DOW? This has to be the hokiest reason I have seen for a DOW rally (and HUI bashing and almost $1 drop in crude). Sheesh. This gets more unreal by the hour –END-


    From Yahoo Market Finance:


    11:00AM: The market continues to pare its losses, with the Dow and Nasdaq trading within only a short reach of their best levels of the morning... The timing of the improvement in the market's standing off its earlier lows coincided with the announcement that the U.S. Military has found Sarin nerve agent in Iraq, as well as some technical considerations. –END-


    So, within two weeks we have:


    *Bin Laden offering gold grams via a tape as a reward, which was never confirmed.


    *Barton Biggs, formerly of Morgan Stanley, coming out on CNBC with the US market plunging and stating the market was the most oversold in 20 years. The stock market changed course dramatically and the DOW closed higher. Of course, Biggs' statement was incorrect as noted by Bill King in his commentary:


    "Some technicians have challenged Barton Biggs for stating ‘the stock market is now more oversold than at any time in the last 20 years’ on CNBC last Thursday. The statement is preposterous. The ’87 crash, the ’89 mini-crash, Desert Storm, the Asian Contagion, the 9/11 aftermath and October 2002 were all far more oversold than the recent minor decline."


    *The US claiming a Weapons of Mass Destruction find, a Sarin Gas artillery shell which happened to be laying on the side of the road just as the DOW was plunging more than 140 points. What timing! What a bunch of crap! The Working Group on Financial Markets has sunk to a new low as has the financial press for not questioning how so many miraculous and perfectly timed stories keep appearing when they are most needed by Wall Street.


    Finding a WMD and reporting on it as Rumseld's credibility is under the severist scrutiny as a result of the New Yorker piece and the turnover plans in Iraq are on the shakiest of grounds as a result of the assassination. Too much of a coincidence for me, any way you cut it.


    Oh yes, don’t forget the time they found Osama bin Laden’s number two man and surrounded him in Afghanistan. The markets rebounded on that one too. Course the guy escaped.


    US financial markets become scarier and more Orwellian by the day. This hits home:


    David Barsamian interviews Noam Chomsky
    The Progressive, May 2004
    http://www.progressive.org/may04/intv0504.html


    Q: Why do so many people in the United States just go along with U.S. policy?


    Chomsky: What's striking is that this view is accepted without coercion. If you're living in a dictatorship or under kings and princes or in a place run by murderous bishops, you'd better take that view or you're in deep trouble. You get burned at the stake or thrown into the gulag or something.


    In the West, you don't get in any trouble if you tell the truth, but you still can't do it. Not only can't you tell the truth, you can't think the truth. It's just so deeply embedded, deeply instilled, that without any meaningful coercion it comes out the same way it does in a totalitarian state.


    Orwell had some words about this in his unpublished introduction to Animal Farm. He says straight, look, in England what comes out in a free country is not very different from this totalitarian monster that I'm describing in the book. It's more or less the same. How come in a free country? He has two sentences, which are pretty accurate. One, he says, the press is owned by wealthy men who have every reason not to want certain ideas to be expressed. And second--and I think this is much more important--a good education instills in you the intuitive understanding that there are certain things it just wouldn't do to say.


    -END-


    The US is going disconnect, not only as far as the gold market is concerned, but in the way our country is conducting its financial markets and news related material. It really has gone Orwellian.


    JUST IN, seems to clearly prove the point about the Orwellian bit:


    From Sarge:


    PEANUT GALLERY:


    Did everyone happen to see this sentence in the Reuters report about that Sarin laced shell??


    "A detonation occurred before the IED could be rendered inoperable. This produced a very small dispersal of agent," he said.


    The incident occurred "a couple of days ago," he said.


    The news was two days old!!!


    http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmp…on_re_mi_ea/iraq_sarin_11


    It would have been hard to concoct a more bullish gold scenario than we had this morning:


    *The dollar sharply lower
    *Sharply lower stock markets around the world, creating financial stability concerns
    *oil climbing close to $42 per barrel
    *Growing US inflation concerns
    *An Iraq disaster which has longer term negative implications
    *AND - "Physical demand is fantastic," said Bernard Sin, chief precious metals trader at MKS Finance SA in Geneva.


    Before the Iraq disaster, gold was up $1.90 when I went to sleep last evening. Therefore, with all that transpired since last evening, gold managed to put on a whopping 60 cents. AND – this is with the specs having already reduced their positions dramatically over the past month, which has firmed up the technicals for gold.


    None of this matters, of course, when the Orwellians running US financial markets want to denigrate gold as a go to vehicle when there is obvious stress in the financial markets. The "Reverse Gold Barometer" revealed itself once more. Just when gold ought to perform superbly, the bad guys sit all over it as they did today. "Massive trade selling" shoved gold down once the $6 Rule was put into effect. What trade?? Not gold producers. The Gold Cartel!


    The gold open interest fell 1932 contracts to 253,299.


    The silver open interest rose 775 contracts to 91,821.


    Oil closed in new high ground by day’s end at $41.44, up 14 cents. The dollar was tagged for .62 points to 91.16, above its 200-day moving average of 90.92. The euro gained 1.28 to 119.98.


    Silver was bombed and couldn’t recover. This market has been very difficult to play as the manipulators seem to be able to toy with it at will, at least for the time being.


    Hello Canada. We are ripping you off too. We import a great deal of energy from you all and can’t have your currency going up while oil is soaring. So look what we did to you today even as the dollar was hit hard against most other currencies:


    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CD/64


    Take that!

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Gott sei Dank ist die Thai Börse jetzt auch geschlossen.


    Thailand heute im Minus mit 4.61%


    Bratmaus


    Wenn Du lieber möchtest?


    Es ist alles nur purer Zufall, dass bei einem fallendem Dollar Kurs, oder Gold Preis positiven Meldungen, Gold immer nur gerade maximal ca. 6.-Dollar ansteigt. Selbst auch dann wenn Gold positive Meldungen, und ein fallender Dollar Kurs zusammen treffen.


    Es ist alles auch nur purer Zufall, dass bei steigendem Dollar Kurs, oder irgendwelchen haarsträubenden angeblich Gold negativen Meldungen, der Goldpreis immer gleich 10.-, 14.-, 17.-, oder noch mehr Dollars fällt.


    Wohlgemerkt bei etwa gleicher prozentualer Veränderung in die eine, oder andere Richtung beim Dollar Kurses.


    Gruss


    ThaiGuru

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://us.i1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/fi/main4.gif]


    http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040517/markets_global_2.html


    Reuters


    GLOBAL MARKETS-Asia stocks tumble, oil hits new high


    Monday May 17, 2:44 am ET
    By Ian Geoghegan


    SINGAPORE, May 17 (Reuters) - Asian stocks tumbled on Monday, on fears that record high crude oil prices, a slowing Chinese economy and an early U.S. interest rate hike would choke off economic growth.
    India's stock market was in free-fall on political uncertainties and trading was suspended after stocks slid 15.5 percent, wiping out $40 billion in market value. Stocks in oil-dependent South Korea, Taiwan and Japan dropped three to five percent.


    Financial market bookmakers expected Europe's leading exchanges to open about 0.5 percent lower, while Nasdaq 100 futures were off more than one percent, pointing to Wall Street falls.


    The U.S. dollar eased against both the euro and the Japanese yen, pushing up the price of safe-haven gold. Crude oil notched up to a fresh high, while Japanese government bonds gained as investors fled stocks.


    Taiwan's main TAIEX (Taiwan:^TWII - News) share index slumped 5.1 percent to a nine-month closing low, hit by the oil price surge and a warning by China that it would crush any independence moves by President Chen Shui-bian "firmly and thoroughly at any cost".


    Seoul's benchmark Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) (KSE:^KS11 - News) dived 5.14 percent to a seven-month low of 728.98, while Tokyo's Nikkei stock average (^N225 - News) fell 3.18 percent to 10,505.05 -- down 13.6 percent since hitting a 33-month closing high on April 26.


    Crude oil futures (CLc1) hit an all-time high of $41.65 a barrel, up 27 cents from Friday's New York close. There are worries that tight world oil supply may fail to meet peak summer driving demand for gasoline in the United States.


    The Dow Jones industrial average (^DJI - News) notched its third straight weekly fall on Friday as investors fretted about rocketing oil prices and rising interest rates.


    An MSCI index of Asian markets beyond Japan (^MSCIAPJ - News) was down 2.97 percent, its lowest since October.


    Bombay's 30-share Sensex index (Bombay:^BSESN - News) crashed 15.5 percent, or 786 points, after falling six percent on Friday. News that smaller communist parties would not join a new Congress-led government added to uncertainty over the pace of privatisations and economic reform. India was Asia's best performing market after Thailand in 2003.


    "There's a lack of buyers, volumes are thin, and everyone's in a panic," said Navin Roy, a dealer at TAIB Securities. "We need the Congress party to make a strong statement affirming its commitment to the reform process."


    Matsushita Electric Industrial Co (Tokyo:6752.T - News), which makes Panasonic products, shed 2.75 percent after earlier gaining on a newspaper report it and Toray Industries Inc (Tokyo:3402.T - News) would invest 90 billion yen ($786 million) to build the world's biggest plasma display panel (PDP) factory and quadruple output.


    UFJ Holdings Inc (Tokyo:8307.T - News), the smallest of Japan's "big four" banks, lost over 10 percent on reports it would post a net loss in its business year which ended in March.


    Financial and industry sources told Reuters UFJ may cut its earnings estimate for the year that ended in March for a second time due to the rising cost of cleaning up bad loans. Local media said UFJ Bank's president and other top executives may quit.


    By 0612 GMT, the dollar was at 113.80 yen (JPY=), down almost one yen from the day's high of 114.65 yen, with dealers citing selling related to interest payments on U.S. Treasury bonds.


    The euro traded at 136.15 yen (EURJPY=R) close to a two-month high of 136.25. Against the dollar, the single currency (EUR=) firmed to $1.1966.


    Analysts said the dollar's slip, coming after Friday's weaker-than-expected U.S. consumer sentiment data, would probably be only temporary as that report was unlikely to alter the prospect of higher U.S. interest rates.


    The yield on the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) (0#JPTSY=JBTC) fell over three basis points from Friday's level to 1.455 percent.


    JGBs have benefited from the view that higher interest rates in the United States and China might put the brakes on economic growth and hurt corporate profits -- a view that has depressed the Tokyo stock market.


    Spot gold (XAU=) firmed over $3 an ounce to $379.50.

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Indien jetzt schon bei 15.52% Wertverlust


    http://finance.yahoo.com/m2?u


    Das kann ja wohl nicht nur am Wahlsieg der Oposition unter Gandi liegen?


    Ein einziger Tag, und 15.52% der gesammten Indischen Börsenbewertung haben sich in Luft aufgelöst!


    Das hat Gold trotz massivster Preis Manipulation in den gesammten letzten Wochen zusammen gerechnet nicht erlebt.


    Das ist alles nur der Beginn einer Entwicklung, die schlussendlich alle in die Sicherheit des physischen Goldes führen wird. Die Inder machen es uns gerade wieder einmal mehr vor.


    Falls jemand glauben sollte 15.52% Werteverlust an der Börse Indiens, die übrigens von nicht wenigen Anlageberatern, und weltbekannten Anlalysten immer wieder auf's neue empfohlen wurde, sei nicht mit europäischen Börsen zu vergleichen, könnten schneller als manchem lieb sein kann, gezwungen sein ihre heute noch bestehende Überzeugung noch gewaltig revidieren zu müssen.


    Die indische Börse hatte übrigens bereits am letzten Freitag massiv an Wert verloren!


    Gruss


    ThaiGuru

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Früher liess Eichel doch des öftern vernehmen, dass die Wirtschaft Deutschlands sich im Aufschwung befinde. Nun sagt er auf einmal was ganz anderes, und wiederspricht sich in seinen Aussagen sogar selbst:


    "Der Aufschwung sei noch nicht so robust"


    "Jedoch müsse man im Abschwung Defizite hinnehmen"


    "Im Aufschwung muss man dann umso härter konsolidieren."


    Fals ich die Worte Eichels nicht missverstanden haben sollte, heisst das doch nichts anderes als, dass ein Wirtschaftsaufschwung der von Eichel früher verkündet wurde, eben gar noch nicht greifbar ist?



    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.reuters.de/images/reuters.gif]


    http://www.reuters.de/newsPack…oryID=511654&section=news


    Stoiber fordert Sparprogramm für den Bund


    Sonntag 16 Mag, 2004 16:03 CET


    Berlin (Reuters) - Angesichts der Milliardenlöcher im Bundeshaushalt hat Bayerns Ministerpräsident Edmund Stoiber ein Sparpaket von fünf Prozent in allen Bereichen gefordert.


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://wwwi.reuters.com/images…76_RTRDEOP_1_PICTURE0.jpg]


    "Für die schnelle Sanierung des Etats hilft jetzt nur noch das Rasenmäherprinzip", sagte der CSU-Chef dem Magazin "Der Spiegel". Nur Forschung und Entwicklung sollten ausgenommen werden. Erstmals schloss Stoiber Kürzungen der Eigenheimzulage und der Pendlerpauschale nicht aus. Bundesfinanzminister Hans Eichel (SPD) lehnte ein Sparprogramm erneut ab. Zugleich schloss er vorerst eine Erhöhung der Mehrwertsteuer aus, die von den Grünen für die Zukunft erneut ins Gespräch gebracht wurde. NRW-Ministerpräsident Peer Steinbrück (SPD) wandte sich gegen Steuererhöhungen.


    STEUERN SPRUDELN IM APRIL KRÄFTIGER


    Die jüngste Steuerschätzung hatte ergeben, dass Bund, Länder und Gemeinden bis 2007 mit 61 Milliarden Euro weniger Steuern auskommen müssen als bislang erwartet. Allein in diesem Jahr fehlen dem Bund nach Schätzungen Eichels bis zu elf Milliarden Euro. Als "sehr positiv" bezeichnete ein Sprecher Eichels die Entwicklung der Steuereinnahmen im April. Er bestätigte einen Medienbericht, dass die Steuereinnahmen im Vergleich zum Vorjahresmonat um 8,6 Prozent zugelegt hätten. Im März waren die Einnahmen noch um 6,9 Prozent zurückgegangen.


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://wwwi.reuters.com/images…76_RTRDEOP_1_PICTURE0.jpg]
    .
    .
    [Blockierte Grafik: http://wwwi.reuters.com/images…76_RTRDEOP_1_PICTURE1.jpg]


    Stoiber forderte von der Bundesregierung eine globale Minderausgabe von fünf Prozent für den Bundeshaushalt 2005. Kürzungen seien auch im Kinder- und Jugendhilferecht oder bei der beruflichen Weiterbildung möglich. In der aktiven Arbeitsmarktpolitik ließen sich nach seinen Worten 5,75 Milliarden Euro sparen. "Eigenheimzulage und Pendlerpauschale sind in ihrer bisherigen Ausgestaltung sicher kein Tabu", sagte Stoiber weiter. Dies seien aber Steuererleichterungen, die zur Finanzierung der von der Union geplanten großen Steuerstrukturreform eingesetzt werden müssten. Sie dürften nicht herangezogen werden, um Haushaltslöcher zu stopfen.


    EICHEL: KONJUNKTUR FÜR SPARPAKET NICHT ROBUST GENUG


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://wwwi.reuters.com/images…76_RTRDEOP_2_PICTURE2.jpg]


    "Ein neues Sparpaket wäre zurzeit falsch", sagte Eichel der der "Frankfurter Allgemeinen Sonntagszeitung". Der Aufschwung sei noch nicht so robust, dass er durch ein Sparprogramm belastet werden dürfe. Die Regierung werde ihren Konsolidierungskurs beibehalten. Jedoch müsse man. im Abschwung Defizite hinnehmen, die durch geringere Steuereinnahmen und Mehrausgaben am Arbeitsmarkt entstünden. "Im Aufschwung muss man dann umso härter konsolidieren." Der Zeitpunkt für harte Sparmaßnahmen werde derzeit im Kabinett erörtert.


    Ein Sprecher Eichels wies einen "Spiegel"-Bericht als "übliche und kreative Spekulation" zurück, wonach Eichel für 2005 eine Neuverschuldung von 24 Milliarden Euro plant. Die Haushaltsgespräche seien erst angelaufen. Klarheit werde es am 23. Juni mit dem Kabinettsbeschluss zum Etatplan 2005 geben.


    Der nordrhein-westfälische Ministerpräsident Steinbrück erteilte Forderungen nach höheren Steuern eine Absage. Das Ziel von 1,5 Prozent Wirtschaftswachstum in diesem Jahr sei erreichbar. "Jede Diskussion um Steuererhöhungen macht das kaputt", sagte Steinbrück dem Bonner "General-Anzeiger" (Montagausgabe). Die anspringende Konjunktur dürfe jetzt nicht belastet werden.


    Grünen-Fraktionschefin Krista Sager brachte erneut eine Erhöhung der Mehrwertsteuer ins Gespräch, die aber nicht zum Stopfen von Haushaltslöchern benutzt werden dürfe. "Wenn die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung in Deutschland sich nachhaltig verbessert hat, kann man darüber nachdenken, die Mehrwertsteuer zu erhöhen, um die Lohnnebenkosten weiter zu senken", sagte Sager dem Bremer "Kurier am Sonntag". Sie forderte, den Subventionsabbau fortzusetzen. Das Finanzministerium hatte jüngst intern eine Mehrwertsteuererhöhung um bis zu fünf Prozentpunkte ins Gespräch gebracht, um unter anderem den Beitrag zu Arbeitslosenversicherung zu senken. Ein entsprechender Vorschlag war nach Angaben aus Regierungskreisen bei Bundeskanzler Gerhard Schröder (SPD) auf Ablehnung gestoßen.

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.herald.co.zw/images/zimplogorotate.gif]The Herald Online [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.herald.co.zw/images/mweb_logo.gif]


    http://www.herald.co.zw/index.…=31973&pubdate=2004-05-17


    Monday, 17 May 2004


    US$67,3m gold delivered to RBZ


    Deputy Business Editor


    THERE has been an increase in gold deliveries with 5,13 tonnes of the precious metal worth US$67,3 million having been delivered to the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe during first quarter of the year compared to 3,4 tonnes worth US$39 million recorded during the same period last year.


    In growth terms, the statistics, which were compiled by a local consultancy firm, represent increases of 50,6 percent and 72,6 percent in volume and value terms, respectively.


    Mines and Mining Development Minister Mr Amos Midzi said deliveries were expected to rise during the second quarter of the year owing to stringent measures employed by the Government to plug leakage in the sector.


    "The notable improvement in gold production levels and delivery for the first quarter of the year have been largely due to the concerted efforts by the Government, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, legal forces and players in the mining industry, in plugging most of the previous loopholes.


    "We anticipate that gold inflows would further increase in the second quarter of the year as the initiative by the Government starts paying off, said Ambassador Midzi.


    He added that laxity in the regulation of the mining industry during the previous years and inadequate policing, saw the country being prejudiced of tonnes of the precious mineral worth billions of dollars in both foreign and local currency.


    Ambassador Midzi said Government would continue to make consultations with various experts and stakeholders on the course of action to be taken to maintain the rise in gold production and delivery.


    Some of the countrys top gold mines are Independence Gold Mine and Freda Rebecca Mine.


    Gold remains one of the countrys strategic reserves given its impact on the foreign exchange generation.


    In his monetary policy statement, the governor of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, Dr Gideon Gono, raised the gold support price from $60 000 to $71 000 per gram for producers who elect to sell 100 percent of the precious metal in exchange for local currency.


    The support price applies to both small and large-scale producers. For producers wishing to retain some of their proceeds in foreign currency accounts, 50 percent of their proceeds is sold in foreign currency at the going international gold price and retained in the bank accounts.


    Twenty-five percent of the proceeds is sold to Government at $824 per US dollar for priority payments and the remaining 25 percent is sold at the gold support price of $71 000 per gram, or at the auction rate, or at the foreign exchange floor price, whichever is higher.


    Dr Gono also scrapped the three-percent levy paid to the Government by gold producers in a bid to enhance viability.


    Gold prices weakened significantly in the first half of March – dipping to below the US$400 per ounce mark several times during that period.


    However, golds bullish trend resumed late March and ended the month at almost US$424, significantly higher than the US$405 average in February.


    Gold had eased to around US$394 per ounce by April 21. The minerals current pull back stems from a rebound in the US dollar as Japan intervened heavily in the foreign exchange markets to slow the strengthening of its currency and expectations that interest rates in the US may be hiked following the release of positive economic reports during April.


    Gold has an inverse relationship with the US dollar, with gold prices tending to weaken when the US dollar strengthens.


    Meanwhile, platinum prices have continued to firm and by April 21, its price had risen to levels above US$944 an ounce on continued speculative buying and due to the metals strong fundamentals.


    Some analysts expect the metal to break the US$1 000/ounce mark during 2004 and could even move above the record high of about $1 050/oz set in the first quarter of 1980.


    In the base metals category, nickel, which had been outperforming other base metals on international markets, fell by 10,7 percent in March to around US$13 922 per tonne and by April 20, the metal had slipped to just above US$12 800 per tonne.


    The decline in March added to a weak performance in February and brought prices six percent lower than their level in December 2003.


    The rising cost to stainless steel producers, which use nickel for rustproofing flatware, kitchen sinks, appliances, has encouraged the investigation and use of cheaper alternatives, such as manganese and chrome.


    Prices of these substitutes, however, have also risen sharply and these metals are more difficult to work with than nickel.


    All of which suggest that there will be continued strong demand for nickel from the stainless steel industry, which will limit any further decline in nickel prices.


    Another factor that contributed to the recent retreat in nickel prices was the month-long strike at Spains Acerinox, the worlds third largest stainless steel producer and a major consumer of nickel.


    Copper gained 12 percent in March to US$3 105 and is up 36 percent since December 2003.


    Copper prices have stabilised in the US$3 100 per tonne to US$3 200 per tonne in April.

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/image/logo.gif]


    http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/e…-05/16/content_331094.htm


    Association promotes 18K gold


    (eastday.com)


    Updated: 2004-05-16 10:25


    The World Gold Council will promote K-gold jewelry -- 75 percent pure gold or 18K -- in China after a warm response to the jewelry which debuted in Shanghai last September, said council officials on May 14 in town.


    The 18K gold jewelry trade accounts for up to 5 percent of the country's total gold consumption and officials expected the figure to grow to up to 15 percent in three to five years.


    "K-gold was introduced to Beijing earlier this week and will be brought to other major cities such as Chengdu, Dalian, Wuhan or Guangzhou earlier next year," said Albert L. H. Cheng, managing director of World Gold Council Far East.


    The London-based global advocate for gold launched K-gold jewelry first in Shanghai with three partners, Hong Kong-based Chow Sang Sang Jewelry Co Ltd, Chow Tai Fook Jewelry Co Ltd and Shanghai-based DH Splendia Jewelry. It has added five additional partners.


    Though many Chinese covet 24K gold products as a hedge against inflation, young generations are interested in fashion jewelry, said Cheng.


    "I thought gold jewelry a bit vulgar, but I decided gold jewelry fashionable and eye-catching after I saw K-gold jewelry on TV," said Zhao Yun, a 23-year-old local resident