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CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH
All is well. The DOW (10,585, up 88) and the DOG (2079, up 22) are blissfully motoring right along.
The dollar closed at 89.58, up .73 while the euro tanked to 119.93, off .89, gapping down and making a new low for the move.
The US economic news:
April 5 (Bloomberg) -- A gauge of U.S. service industries unexpectedly jumped to a record in March as orders and employment climbed, and a quarterly survey of chief executive officers showed their confidence in the economy is the highest in more than 20 years.
The Institute for Supply Management's index of financial services, construction, retail and other non-manufacturing enterprises rose to 65.8 in March from 60.8 the month before, exceeding the previous record of 65.7 in January. Readings higher than 50 indicate expansion in the report, which started in 1997.
More concerning Friday's booming US jobs report:
4/5 CHARLOTTE, N.C. - Bank of America Corp., which completed its merger with FleetBoston Financial Corp. last week, said Monday it will cut 12,500 jobs, or about 7 percent of its combined work force.
Approximately 30 percent of the cuts will come through attrition, the Charlotte-based bank said. The reductions will occur over the next two years and will begin this month. -END-
GATA’s Mike Bolser:
Hi Bill:
The Fed added $6.25 Billion in repurchase agreements today April5th 2004, an action that caused the repo pool to rise sluggishly to $28.83 Billion and also to raggedly keep the pool's 30-day moving average moving up.
The pattern of this up-turn in the pool's 30-day ma (red trace) is different from the past and tells me that the Fed is more worried about the DOW streaking back up than they are about a steep fall. On this point, I have ongoing talks with supporters about the strong appearance of an imminent DOW or NASDAQ fall as the latter hovers near its 200-day ma. If the NASDAQ falls through its 200-day ma (it would be the second such fall) they argue, in a credible manner that this is the classical appearance of a crash.
My answer is that the repo pool metric measures only the DOW and its responses to the Fed's injections of repurchase agreement funding that is subsequently utilized to purchase DOW index futures contracts, an action that supports the broader DOW index itself. The NASDAQ may well diverge from the DOW in a big way (as silver is beginning to do from gold) and I can't discount this possibility. However, the DOW itself can be supported by the Fed and as such will be the metric of first choice in the Fed's strategic plan. The rising Fed problems with a myriad of rigs beginning to come apart will eventually sink their intervention but the DOW will mysteriously still be high. The exact failure mechanism and especially its timing can't be known at this point.
Collective delusion, purposeful ignorance
The Fed has since 1987 been on an interventional agenda first with the creation of the PPT and then through a string of anti-free market constructs. Gargantuan interest rate derivative totals at JP Morgan Chase to steer rates, commodities sales to suppress their natural market prices and mask inflation and always to dissemble and obfuscate. At times the intervention seems to be center stage as the business journalists pretend not to see. I call this purposeful ignorance....they want the status quo so they ignore the rot.
Even one of my neighbors still clings to the "I don't care if the markets are rigged" attitude. He never heard of the Weimar Republic's demise, nor the France of John Law. For him it's "Damn the (financial) torpedoes...deficits don't matter".
It is possible to assemble facts and draw the wrong conclusion, over and over. I have mentioned here is the past the remarkable story of the rise of electronic transistors and the obsolescence of it's parent industry—vacuum tubes. Chet Raymo (the "R" in TRW, not the physicist) had the following to
say:
"Of the ten leading vacuum tube manufacturers, none participated in the transistor revolution".
They were then as delusional regarding the many benefits of the transistor as the Fed is today regarding the inevitable collapse of their fraudulent anti-free market interventions.
Mike
From The King Report
M. Ramsey King Securities, Inc.
Monday April 5, 2004 – Issue 2890 "Independent View of the News"
….We have never seen such a grossly misinterpreted Employment Report in our 30 years in this biz. But the nature of the wise-guy-dominated markets is to shoot first and analysis later. So if you don’t want to know the truth or if in the words of Jack Nicholson "You can’t handle the truth" ignore the following.
About release of the report, we immediately noticed some huge red flags. How could non-farm payrolls explode 308k when a) the unemployment rate increased to 5.7%; b) wage growth was less than expected at 0.1%; c) the "employed population ratio" actually FELL to 62.1% from 62.2%; d) the "employment participation rate" was unchanged at 65.9%; e) total employment was unchanged at 138.3m and most importantly f) the avg workweek fell 0.1 to 33.7, which is near a 40-year low (33.5)! (See table A-1.)
When dissecting the numbers we learned that NSA service job wages fell 8 cents and they accounted for 230k of the 308k job growth. Leisure & hospitality wages NSA fell 4 cents; and NSA avg hours worked fell 0.3. Something is obviously wrong. Healthcare contributed 36k jobs, leisure & hospitality 28k, retail 47k, government created 31k and the phantom jobs estimated to be created by small business was 153k! This is now known as the business birth/death rate. Apparently a large number of workers entered the workforce in order to force the unemployed rate higher, but still something seemed incredibly wrong.
After the close, our good friend and astute, no nonsense economist, ex-Fed official and investment adviser (at Van Hoisington Management), Lacy Hunt, provided the answers to the conundrum. Of the 308k jobs created, 296k are temporary or part-time jobs! Let us repeat and let’s be very clear, almost all jobs created in what is heralded as a great employment report are part-time jobs. "In March, the number of persons who worked part time for economic reasons increased to 4.7 million, about the same level as in January. These individuals indicated that they would like to work full time but were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find full-time jobs. (See table A-5.)" People want full-time but can’t find it. Lacy opines that Congress did not renew unemployment benefits so many people took whatever they could get. This accounts for the surge in people entering the workforce. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t05.htm Lacy noticed other salient points in the report. The average weekly paycheck in February for the private sector was $524.58; in March it fell an astounding 88 cents to $523.70. The area of job growth shows even worse numbers. The average weekly paycheck for leisure & hospitality workers is $225.55. Retail is $364.50. Now everything fits and conforms, especially to the large fundamental trend of persistent lowering of US living standards as those in Asia increase. This is great news for Bush and the US!?! And this is reason for TV broken-clock jackasses to hoot and holler?!? But there is more.
"The index of aggregate weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls fell by 0.1 percent in March to 99.0 (2002=100). The manufacturing index was down by 0.3 percent over the month to 94.1. (See table B-5.)"
In the Employment report there is this illumination in Table A-7: "NOTE: Detail shown in this table will not necessarily add to totals because of the independent seasonal adjustment of the various series. Beginning in January 2004, data reflect revised population controls used in the household survey." So we checked to see why the caveat. "More unemployed" increased 182k; but in the table, men age 20+ saw unemployment increase 182k. Women age 20+ had a 142k increase in unemployment. That totals 346k more unemployed by real math, but not BLS math. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t07.htm
The Employment Report is 180 degrees from what is being propagated. As we have regularly stated, especially during Slick’s term: 1) due to the proliferation of ‘fast money’, operators and investors react to headline data and news without thought or analysis and 2) commentators, pundits, gurus etc. tend to rationalize market moves rather than analyze the data or events. PS – The hedge fund industry is headed for a major reorganization and philosophical change. Too many knee-jerk lemmings try to quickly make small percentage moves under huge leverage. And we don’t want to get into the ‘fund of fund’ gatekeepers that are populated by many with no trading, investing or business experience.
Now let’s see who in the industry does the requisite analysis of the employment report and has the nerve to say the emperor has no clothes. But you now know the facts and reality. The market will realize this in due time, and it won’t be a pleasant adjustment. Wells Fargo (Minneapolis) economist Sung Won Sohn is the only other economist that we saw mention that part-time jobs were most of the jobs gain.
Construction jobs increased 71k in March. Midwest Research notes "Industrial construction volumes (millions of sq ft) reached their highest level in over 2 yrs during 4Q03; vacancy rates have flattened out, but remain at/near 9-yr highs." Despite 9-year highs in vacancy builders keep building. Of course it’s due to Easy Al’s bubble policies. Giving cheap money to builders is like giving cheap beer to frat boys. Most will consumer it even when it is imprudent and self-destructive. This explains why bubbles, let alone reflated bubbles, are so pernicious. They encourage mal-investment in areas with over-capacity, which just exacerbates the big-picture problems and eventual adjustment…Midwest Research also notes that scrap iron prices fell almost 15% in March, the first decline in 9 months due to the absence of Chinese buying. The evidence is clear that Chinese officials want to slow down its economy. http://www.midwestresearch.com/disclosures/index.asp
The ECB refrained from lowering rates on Thursday. The market expected a cut because Euro economic fundamentals, especially Germany, are receding. We’d guess the ECB has joined the BoE, BoC and BoJ fear of inflation camp. Good thing the Fed sees no inflation and they can remain patient…Weekend reports say the BoE might hike rates this week due to inflation, especially in British homes.
Poor Martha Stewart gets cheesed for a few thousand dollars while 9/11 profiteers and the people who had the employment report early on Friday made millions. S&P futures started to soar at 7:20 CST; USUs started tanking at 7:24. At one point bonds fell 4 handles on the panic. This should give late-night sweats to Fed, banking and brokerage officials. If bonds can collapse that fast on the perception the Fed might hike rates 25 bps (on a grossly misinterpreted report at that) what will transpire when a serious problem, rate hike or market-generated surge in rates occur? To avoid a series of LTCM mishaps, risk models better be run with something other than rate assumption that reflect the halcyon times of the past many years. PS – Journalists get the data at 8Am CST. The WH and various officials have the report by Thursday afternoon.
The ECRI "US Future Inflation Gauge" jumped to 118.8 in March from Feb’s 115.7, which was revised higher. Every reading since June has been revised higher. There is profound significance here beyond the surface issue of increasing inflationary pressure. The founder of ECRI, Geoffrey Moore, was Easy Al’s mentor and one of his professors. Al reportedly still closely follows Moore’s work. But Al has to ignore inflation due to the big-picture of unserviceable debt and the intractable diminution of US living standards due to the ascent of Asia and other developing countries. http://www.businesscycle.com/freedata.php
-END-
More on that phony jobs report:
Hi Bill.
You said:
"What blows me away is how anyone could believe such a perfectly timed, positive report after what these same people have dished out on Iraq and the PPI! If the jobs picture is picking up that much for American workers, great. Seems a real stretch to me."
Yup. And don't forget what John Crudelle said in the passage you quoted the day before the employment report was released: that the Bureau of Labor Statistics had, in the prior month's report, mysteriously deleted 300,000-plus jobs. He was scratching his head wondering why they would do that, but now we know why: to produce a bad jobs report which would lure his opponent to go on the attack about the unemployment picture, after which the deleted jobs would conveniently reappear in the next report, making him, i.e., Kerry, look like a fool.
And, of course, all of the in-crowd are cliqued up together, so the bears at COMEX undoubtedly received a heads-up about the jobs report, with enough lead time to enable them to lure a bunch of long specs into gold/silver and short specs into the dollar, so they could pick their pockets when the report came out.
It's out and out fraud, of course, and the taking of the property of another by stealth, or force, or fraud is a violation of property rights. But where's the real surprise? Under fascism, the government reserves the right to violate property rights "in the public interest," and, naturally, the politically connected elite sees itself, not you or I, as the exclusive proponents of that interest. Thus Bush sees his reelection as "in the public interest," and the fiat money gang sees the ruination of those who support real money to be "in the public interest." Unlike poor Martha Stewart, whose perfectly reasonable actions were clearly self-serving, the elitists are regarded as selfless servants of mankind, and thus are permitted to plunder the country down to the bare walls without legal consequences.
Mitchell Jones
Yet, even more on the "report leak."
Bill,
Just finished reading today's Midas report and there are two things I would like to point out to you. As a trader in the ring we are always aware that the numbers hit the tape at 8:30 am straight down, so at 8:29 almost all the traders that trade their own accounts "flatten out" and wait on the number. Yesterday we didn't have a chance as all hell broke loose and I glanced at the clock and it read 8:29: 32 a full twenty-eight seconds before the number should have been released. I will call anyone a liar to their face who swears the number was not leaked!!!!
Secondly my Daughter graduated in May 2003 from Loyola In New Orleans. She graduated Magna Cum Laude with a degree in public relations, as of today she is still looking for a job. I talk to her 3 or 4 times a week and I want someone else to tell her that the job market is good because I refuse to lie to my own child.................GO GATA!!!!!!!!!!!!! -END-
I received on the following about Tom McClellan:
The author of the McClellan Market Report, in his latest piece, dated 4/2/04 is looking for a major top NOW. He goes on to say Monday is the ideal date target and that this will be the start of a projected 5-year bear market in gold. He's an excellent technician (and I might add a long term gold bug)I myself am a true believer who reads Dines; Russell; Taylor; Van Eden and a host of others, so I'm not some nervous nellie waffling in the wind. Keep up your fine work. I'm a stockbroker and I have very large gold positions for myself and my clients. Steve
McClellan is very highly regarded and I am sure deservedly so. However, what good is technical analysis in a market which has been rigged for 8 years? It can be valuable in the short-term to gauge market swings, but big picture-wise, it is useless. Garbage In, Garbage Out. Market technicians are looking at an illusion when it comes to gold and silver. The gold and silver prices are where they are because they have been artificially suppressed for many years. The only reason the silver price is taking off now is the crooks don’t have enough silver physical ammo to keep it down any longer. They have hit the wall. Eventually, the same thing will happen with gold. Market technicians such as McClellan and Prechter will be blown out of the water.
1. Teil