Rede von Agustín Carstens
Generaldirektor, Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsausgleich
The rise of global inflation
https://www.bis.org/speeches/sp220405.pdf
Hab das heute mal durchgelesen.
-übelstes Geschwafel
-voller Lügen, die das Narrativ zementieren
-ekelhafter Speichellecker
-ekelhafter Besserwisser
auf Seite 9:
This brings me to the outlook for inflation. Where could inflation go from here?
We should not expect inflationary pressures to ease soon. In many countries, demand has not fully
rotated back to services. Bottlenecks remain in shipping, semiconductors and in countries where
the pandemic may keep part of the workforce away from production. Indeed, the full price impact
of the disruptions of 2021 may still be working its way through the system.
At the same time, new inflationary forces have emerged with a vengeance. Food, oil and many
other commodity prices have soared since the start of the war in Ukraine as supplies have dried
up. Some such increases will feed directly into higher consumer prices. Others, for example metals,
will further stretch global value chains. And inflation has its own dynamics. We have already seen
it broaden into services in many countries.
auf Seite 13:
The good news is that central banks are awake to the risks. No one wants to repeat the 1970s. It
seems clear that policy rates need to rise to levels that are more appropriate for the higherinflation
environment. Most likely, this will require real interest rates to rise above neutral levels
for a time in order to moderate demand.
The adjustment to higher interest rates will not be easy. In many countries, starting conditions
complicate matters. Households, firms, financial markets and sovereigns have become too used to
low interest rates and accommodative financial conditions, also reflected in historically high levels
of private and public debt. It will be a challenge to engineer a transition to more normal levels
and, in the process, set realistic expectations of what monetary policy can deliver.
Nor will the required shift in central bank behaviour be popular. But central banks have been here
before. They are fully aware that the short-term costs in terms of activity and employment are the
price to pay to avoid bigger costs down the road. And such costs represent an investment in
central banks’ precious credibility, which yields even longer-term benefits.
The shifts do underscore that central banks cannot single-handedly ensure global growth by
keeping an accommodative stance in all conditions. Amid low inflation, this perception became
commonplace. It is one central banks must continue to fight against, even more so in an
inflationary environment.
The key to higher sustainable growth cannot be expansionary monetary or fiscal policy. We must
strengthen the productive capacity of the economy. Indeed, this is well overdue. Many of the
economic challenges we face today stem from the neglect of supply side policies over the past
decade or more. Over the medium term, higher potential growth would make it easier for
indebted economies to withstand the higher nominal and real interest rates that are likely to
prevail in the years ahead. Central banks have done more than their part over the past decade.
Now is the time for other policies to take the baton.
-also Zinsen erhöhen (Volcker-Style)
-BSP stärken (mehr Waren erzeugen und Wachstum), wirkt der zu großen Geldmenge entgegen.
Ist irgendwie logisch, wird aber nicht aber nicht funktionieren. Zumindest nicht in Europa (Sozialkassen,..).
Ich kann nur sagen: der Zug verlässt jetzt den Bahnhof, haltet euch gut fest.