What does all this mean for one’s portfolio and the price of various instruments:
1. 60/40 won’t cut it anymore and should be 20/40/20/20 instead, with the weights representing cash, stocks, bonds, and commodities.
2. Cash, while the curve remains inverted, is “king”. It provides a nice yield, has no duration risk, and, as Warren Buffet said, it has an option value.
3. Commodities should include three types of gold: yellow, black, and white.
Yellow gold is gold bars. Black gold is oil. White gold is lithium for EVs.
4. Commodities should also include a range of other stuff like copper,
cobalt, et cetera, and the general theme driving commodities is that...
5. ...after years of underinvestment, supply became extraordinarily tight,
just as we re-arm, re-shore, re-stock, and re-wire the grid (see here).
6. The U.S. dollar won’t be de-throned overnight...
7. ...but on the margin, de-dollarization and digitization (CBDCs) by BRICS+
central banks will reduce dollar dominance and demand for Treasuries.
8. The dollar’s strength or weakness should be thought of in the context
of the four prices of money (that is, par, interest, FX, and the price level):
9. The U.S. dollar will remain “FX” strong versus other DM currencies...
10. ...but will be become “price level” weak (that is, outright devalue)
versus commodities and “FX” weak versus most BRICs currencies...
...which will guarantee plenty of volatility in all four prices of money this decade.
Good luck in 2023 and beyond