Beiträge von bognair

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    - any leverage investing such as futures and options are a double edged sword, it cuts both ways. One must be highly experienced in order to exploit these opportunities, otherwise, focus on accumulating wealth over time. Talk to a specialist in the futures/options business before you plunk down a few thousand for a lottery jackpot.


    - stock options, in particular leap options, are better choices. But you must buy them ITM (in the money) or at least ATM (at the money) to be effective. Deep OTM (out of the money) options are a waste of money unless we get a huge move. You can buy these leaps inside your IRA/RRSP, but only use part of your portfolio. The same rule applies in all trading, buy on a buy signal, and get out on a sell signal. Since leaps are long term, you can buy them once a daily buy signal is confirmed, and hopefully we get a weekly buy signal after that, then hold them until a sell signal on the weekly chart.


    JC



    noch ein Chart von gestern N8:
    WAS HAT WOHL MORGAN STANLEY ALLES IN SEINEM INDEX ??

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    XAU Volume Analysis


    3/13/2004


    Volume analysis compliments my trading model, because it allows me to be aggressive or conservative depending on the messages I get looking at daily volume on the PM stocks. Ideally, we want to see increasing volume during a rally, and decreasing volume on a sell off, in a bull market, and the opposite in a bear market. The time I really pay attention is when the market is in the process of topping and bottoming, and volume tells us a lot about these process.


    Here’s the $XAU daily chart, I have to manually add the volume up because volume is not available, yet...


    Notice $XAU is still on the BSBS from early Feb, and MACD has not crossed down for a sell signal like the $HUI has.


    - $XAU topped in early Jan, and the volume was very heavy during the month long sell off, with a first low at 46.2 million.
    - 2 days later, the low was tested at 36mil, when a high or low is tested on lighter volume, its deemed successful. The resulting rally was good, which gave us a 15% ROI.
    - Next low occurs on Mar 3rd with volume at 30mil, again, much less than both previous lows and a short bounce resulted, which generated our short term buy signal.
    - On Fri, the low was tested with volume at 27mil, and again, at less volume, and at the same time, put in a double bottom. (actually, Fri’s low was higher by 3 pennies, close enough) This is our second short term buy signal.


    Stepping back, what do we see here?


    - we have gradually put in higher lows and each time at declining volume, what does that mean? It means the market is getting very good support. There are more buyers than sellers at each progressing higher low, and because selling is drying up, progressingly lower volume.
    - Each of these four lows are “grenades” pointing up, some call them “tail chasers”. Grenades are bullish, especially the white ones, they indicate an intraday reversal, meaning shares changing hands from the weak to the strong hands, I call them dumb money and smart money.
    - Sell offs are littered with these down grenades, signs of selling pressure.
    - Rallies are peppered with these up grenades, signs of buying pressure.
    - During the sell off in January, we had 6 down grenades and only 2 up grenades, with both up grenades near the bottom.
    - Since the Feb bottom, we had 8 up grenades, and only 2 “mini” down grenades.


    So, does this look like the time to buy and own gold shares, or time to sell and run for the hills? You make the call.


    JC

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    ...As of 3/12, we are on a BSBS on the gold chart, bouncing off the uptrend line with a breakout of a falling wedge, today gold came down to test the breakout, we’ll know by next week if this test is successful and as long as this buy signal holds, we should see a new up leg testing the recent high at the minimum. Add to the fact that PM stocks always lead at major reversals, if the POG is to breakdown, the $HUI should have broken down taking out the Feb low already, and today was a perfect opportunity to do that but $HUI snapped back at the close despite gold losing $5 today. Also, my congrats to those who held till MOC, thus not joining the crowd in panic selling early in the day. An unnecessary loss is bad, but having no positions in the market after it has reversed will lead to chasing it down later at higher prices, and the whole vicious cycle of buying high and selling low repeats. Yes, people lose money in a bull market too.


    CHART 2


    This 3 year daily chart is a Mona Lisa. If this chart does not make you want to jump up and down, you need some Viagra.


    BCB – bullish cycle bottom
    BCT – bullish cycle top


    - since POG bottomed in April 2001 at $255, it has established 4 bullish cycles, and if the current BCB holds, we are at the start of the 5th bullish cycle.
    - All these BCB’s are major buy signals, and all BSBS except the first one.
    - All these bullish cylces are text book bull market, with a typical “right translation”.
    - Support and resistance has also been text book perfect, with each BCT providing support for the next BCB.
    - Correction from each BCT has been exactly 8 weeks, every and each one of them.
    - All BCT’s and BCB’s have occurred during the first week of a month.


    Folks, these are not projections, forecasts, or predictions. This is what has been and is happening, and until the current pattern and rhythm breaks down, it doesn’t get any easier or better to be a trader/investor for this golden bull.
    I’ve been a pure trader these past three years, because deep down I still don’t trust this bull market, like many others. But, I think I have convinced myself to hold a core position, say 50% of my portfolio, and only trade the other half using short and intermediate signals, because, so far, this new bull has been very orderly and predictable, but sooner or later, when the general public gets wind of this and start piling in, we may lose our positions if we try to be cute.
    And to the futures traders, based on the current pattern, the risk/reward is extremely attractive for some incredible profits.
    POG is currently at $395, with BCB at $388, a single contract of gold will run you a risk of $800 using $387 as stop.
    10 contracts x $800 = $8000.
    Upside target is the 1980 high at $850, therefore potential profit is 10 x $45000 = $450,000.
    This is not short term trading, this is a position investment using leverage. Once you are in, you hold your position until this bull market is over. When do we know its over? When there’s a bearish cross on the daily chart.
    This is pure gamble, risking $8000 for a potential ½ million or more, and should only be with money you can afford to lose, but the risk/reward is outrageous, a once in a life time opportunity. Just think, only if you met me when gold made its BCB at $275, or $300, or $325…you would now raise your stops and sit back to enjoy the action;.its not too late.


    Those of us who trade gold stocks should also consider the above scenario by holding a core position, because if this bull market is to continue, once a BCB is in, we won’t see these prices again for a very long time. A golden plan for your golden years.


    A follow up on the Warren Buffett shareholders report.
    If you read the report carefully, you know Mr Buffett is bullish on gold, indirectly. Why? Because since 2002, he has invested 12 billion in the Forex (foreign exchange) market in five different foreign currencies. Well, foreign currencies move inversely to the US dollar, and so does gold. He also bought 1 billion worth of junk bonds denominated in Euro, for a total of 13 billion of hedge against his US holdings. Why didn’t he just buy gold or gold stocks? If you recall….


    - in 97 when words got out that Mr Buffett bought a huge amount of silver (rumor was 25% of available supply), silver prices spiked up. He has leased out the silver since and remains very low profile about it.
    - The above reason is probably why he doesn’t buy gold, instead, buying foreign currencies.
    - The most important factor is, there is simply not enough gold or silver stocks in the market. I’m serious.


    Lets do some numbers…
    - the daily average dollar volume in the precious metal market is about 600 million dollars. (do your own research if you don’t trust my numbers)
    - the current total market cap for the entire PM sector is estimated at 100 billion. MSFT alone is 275 billion!
    - If Mr Buffett wants to own PM stocks, his 12 billion will buy him 12% of the entire market cap.
    - To do that, he has to buy all the PM stocks everyday for 20 trading days, or a calendar month. He cannot.
    - Like a fund manager, he will have to put in large block bids, perhaps 10% of the daily float. Therefore, he can only buy 60 million worth in one day, and that will take 10 calendar months to complete his transaction…..
    - Imagine what that would do to the price of PM stocks? Can you say double? Triple? Or more?
    - This is why PM stocks are so volatile, it only takes a few large transactions to move the stocks 10 to 20% either way, without any news or fundamental changes within the stock or the POG.
    - Folks, we don’t need a Warren Buffett, if this gold bull continues, this is exactly the scenario when Wall street and main street starts accumulating gold shares, and like any asset bubble, they will. Nobody can resist a bull market.


    Peace and profits…


    JC

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    El toro d’oro


    3/12/2004


    The golden bull, indeed.
    As gold stock traders, our signals come from the $HUI, however, understanding the movement of the price of gold (POG), and being familiar with its charts, will help to ease the fear and provide confidence at times when the market sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish. It ain’t hard to understand the constant fear we gold traders often find ourselves in, after all, its been a 20 year bear market for gold, and I bet if tech stocks just came out of a 20 year bear market, you’ll feel the same way.


    In past articles, I have pointed out the fact that the POG always lags gold stocks in major market tops and bottoms, and the most interesting phenomenon is the fact that all major reversals for the POG has occurred during the first week of a month, since this new bull started in 2001. I’m very bullish at the moment, encouraged by my analysis on the POG, and feel that we are at a major buying opportunity, unless current technicals deteriorate, which will not take long to find out. The next two charts will show you where we are right now.


    CHART 1:

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    ...und immer wenn die lease rates steigen, steigt silber schnell, danach wenn es wieder zu günstigeren, alten normal-lease rates kommt, is die nachfrage so gross, dass der zins nicht ansteigt, sondern auf niedrigem niveau zementiert wird, um somit den preis NACH dem anstieg (der SOWIESO gestiegen wäre, aber unaufhaltsam war, und mit höheren LR mit-verstärkt, aber danach wieder LR runterzufahren, kommt vielen genehm und die nachfrage danach muss enorm sein, denn der silberpreis korrigierte danach immer relativ stark nach unten.


    naja, hat jemand nen kommentar,für das szenario, dass die 30jährigen T-BOND-Preise in den nächsten Jahren extrem stark ansteigen?


    das 3eck von denen is mehr als 10 Jahree lang!!! Der Ausbruch glückte ende 2002! Seit dem PULLBACK zurück zur Spitze und seit etwa 3 Monaten stark am ausbrechen.


    Hier der chart, der sich 2mal vergrössern lässt:

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Thursday, March 11, 2004


    Friday 12 March can be worst day for.....


    Dear Members,


    Friday (12 March) is a day to watch for all metals, especially gold and silver. If both metals close down on Friday, which is what I am expecting, then I see a downward trend commencing for gold and silver prices for three days during next week. However, if they move up, then I do not know what upside price to predict especially concerning silver because next week prices can sky rocket.

    As you are aware, I have very much been in favour of silver compared to gold this year. If these metals look weak on Friday's opening, then one must get out from gold and silver for the short term. On the other hand if they close up, then you should hold your investments and I will update you on Monday through the newsletter.

    Thanks and God Bless,
    Mahendra

  • Aktuelles Depot von ibidum (4. Säule)

    Ich sehe zB noch sehr gute Aktienkurssteigerungspotenziale bei Biotech- und pharmazeutischen Unternehmen. Insbesondere halte ich von RESEARCH-Organisationen sehr viel - nicht weil es fundamental tolle und in die richtige Richtung arbeitende Unternehmen sind, sondern weil es dieses Jahr mE doch so manchen, dicken "Durchbruch" geben wird...


    aber leider lässt es mir meine zeit nicht zu, passende Unternehmen zu suchen, und mir bekannte 3 (Innogenetics, Umicore, und noch irgendwas gutes, fällt mir grad nicht ein...) genauer zu untersuchen und einzusteigen.


    aber wenn jemand ein Unternehmen kennt, das etwas interessantes in der Pipeline bereits hat oder in der RESEARCH-Abteilung entwickelt, dann... nur raus damit...


    von anderen Brachen habe ich mich noch nicht überzeugen lassen.

  • Goldfund

    wenn du dir die Müh noch machst, die einzelnden Symbole deren Listings in Vancouver und/oder Toronto rauszusuchen, dann fällt die Suche in meiner Canada-Liste leichter und ich poste hier deren charts - BEI INTERESSE