Es gab mal einen Song:
"It´s all over now"
Die Platte kann der DJ schon mal raussuchen.
Ich denke sowohl HAR als auch GFI- Aktionäre können gut darauf tanzen.
gogh
REUTERS 01.02.05
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Norilsk move signals collapse of Harmony bid
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Tue February 1, 2005 4:08 PM GMT+02:00
JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - Harmony Gold's hostile bid for Gold Fields is terminally ill, signalled by Russian Norilsk Nickel's reluctance unconditionally to tender its Gold Fields stake, fund managers and analysts say.
Sixth biggest gold producer Harmony, which launched its all-share bid in October, said on Tuesday Norilsk would not have to fulfill its vow to hand over its 20-percent Gold Fields stake if Harmony failed to get a majority of its rival.
"I think Harmony's offer is pretty much dead in the water. They have two choices, they either have to to abandon it or increase it and try to pursue it," an analyst said.
Harmony, seeking to create the world's top-ranking gold company by buying number four Gold Fields, got 11.5 percent of Gold Fields in the first stage of its offer, but received virtually no shares in the second stage as the bid value tumbled.
"I think the thing is probably over, I can't see them getting 30 percent excluding Norilsk," said a fund manager who holds Gold Fields shares, but declined to be named.
Norilsk had signed an "irrevocable agreement" to sell its stake to Harmony, but agreed on a "clarification" after Harmony scrapped a condition that it needed a majority of Gold Fields.
"For me it's a negative, because if Norilsk were so sure the bid was going to succeed they would just tender," said Patrice Rassou, fund manager at Old Mutual Asset Managers, which owns around five percent of Gold Fields.
"I don't think Harmony will get the 50 percent, so in a way Norilsk is saying they would rather have Gold Fields (shares) than Harmony."
Norilsk has already succeeded in one of its main objectives when it teamed up with Harmony by helping shoot down Gold Fields proposed merger with Canada's Iamgold in December, analysts said.
Now that the value of Harmony's bid has tumbled by around 40 percent, Norilsk would rather hold on to its stake and seek to merge its gold assets with those of Gold Fields, they added.
HARMONY RESISTS HIGHER OFFER
Harmony, which posts second quarter results on Thursday, is in a fix after the value of its bid slid by around $3.5 billion since it was launched to around $5.1 billion on Tuesday.
The offer is under water by around seven percent, meaning investors would get more for their Gold Fields shares by selling them on the open market then tendering them to Harmony.
Rassou reiterated he would need a much higher offer to tender his Gold Fields stake to Harmony, joining other shareholders calling for a sweetener.
But loss-making Harmony can ill afford one and last week, Harmony's biggest shareholder African Rainbow Minerals said it would oppose any higher bid.
Harmony Chief Executive Bernard Swanepoel told Reuters on Monday the offer -- which was extended until March 18 awaiting approval from competition authorities -- was full and fair, and there was no reason to increase it.
He also said the low level of acceptances was not surprising since most shareholders decide at the very last minute whether to accept takeover offers.
If Harmony fails to get a majority of Gold Fields and Norilsk does not tender its stake, it will be left with a sizeable minority stake.
Analysts said the best path for Harmony would be to sell the shares, since it could use the cash after bleeding red ink for five quarters due to a strong rand cutting export income and making many of its mines uneconomical.
This would be the equivalent of an expensive rights issue, analysts said.
But Rassou said such a sale on the open market might be difficult since it would depress the price.
"If the market knows there's an overhang, then I don't know how they'll realise the stake, it's a bit tricky for them," he said.
