Mehr über die Vollidioten:
DRDGOLD to roll dice, again
[Droopy würfelt, abermals ]
David McKay
Posted: Mon, 19 Mar 2007
[miningmx.com] -- DRDGOLD CEO, John Sayers, said the beleaguered gold company would be recapitalised – without selling more shares – by end-March, but questions still persist about one of the JSE’s most battle-hardened and controversial companies.
At the centre of everything related to DRDGOLD is the major worry the 112-year old company is dying a slow death.
Avoiding this fate requires DRDGOLD to complete a first crucial step of restructuring its balance sheet, badly struck by the R783m impairment charge on Vatukoula, the Fiji mine it mothballed in November and indirectly owns through its 79% stake in Emperor Mines.
...
The consensus among gold analysts is that DRDGOLD will liquidate its investment in Emperor Mines by agreeing to sell its 20% stake in the Porgera mine to Barrick Gold, a Canadian firm.
Barrick has applied additional pressure on DRDGOLD by declaring significant capital expenditure for Porgera, no doubt a negotiating tactic to whittle down what it must pay to DRDGOLD.
“I’m acutely aware. That’s why we’re keeping the competitive process going,” said Sayers. This is also perhaps why Porgera has been paraded before Harmony Gold. Bernard Swanepoel, Harmony Gold's CEO, told Miningmx last week he had been offered by the mine but wondered what value he could provide. It's quite likely he'll be outbid by Barrick Gold.
The other main asset in Emperor Mines – Tolukuma – is less important to the overall picture, so the extent to which DRDGOLD’s balance sheet is remediated hangs squarely on Porgera.
How much will the company get for the asset?
That’s difficult to answer with analyst estimates ranging from $212m $320m. Sayers said debt left for Emperor Mines to settle is about R600m[ca. 81Mio USD]. There’s also a hedge book in Emperor Mines estimated by JP Morgan in a 1 March note to total R200m[27 Mio USD]. “That’s probably a bit high,” said Sayers when asked to comment on the hedge liability.
But it’s reasonable to suppose DRDGOLD will emerge from the Porgera sale with net proceeds of at least R650m[ca. 87 Mio USD]. The firm’s Australasian strategy would then become a thing of the past, leaving it to kickstart new business in Africa. In the meantime, it would have to survive on its South African mines that are old and lumpy.
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As for DRDGOLD’s other South African assets, it has had to withdraw from higher grade areas in Blyvoor owing to seismicity. ERPM is variable. And all this at record rand gold prices.
You can see why DRDGOLD, though cash-flush, would be vulnerable to its own operational weaknesses and possibly to an asset-strip by a hostile party.
On Africa, Sayers said DRDGOLD was looking for exploration: “We’re veering towards exploration rather than an existing mine. But the approach is broad. For every 100 targets you may emerge with two,” he said.
“I’ve been the CFO of two major listed companies on the JSE. I’ve been through tough times before,” said Sayers who was financial director at Nampak from 1996 to 2004 and Altron Ltd before that.
But these are extremely tough times for DRDGOLD.
The company is now worth about 45% less than a year ago, and it’s been in reverse for years based on evidence supplied by JP Morgan.
It says that in 2001, when the gold price was about half its current level, DRDGOLD produced 1.1 million oz compared with the 544,000 oz it produced in its 2006 financial year and with a gold price around $600/oz.
Over the same period, shares in issue have increased to 338 million from 94 million as the company has tapped shareholders for funds.
http://www.miningmx.com/gold_silver/688247.htm
Hier erscheinen die Schulden Emperors günstiger als weiter oben dargestellt. Einen kleiner Schuldenteil wird vielleicht dem Käufer Vatukuolas aufgebürdet; womöglich sind andere Assets doch verwertbarer als befürchtet.
Wenn DRD aus dem ca. 80%igen EMP Anteil netto 87 Mio USD erlösen könnte, entspräche dies etwa einem EMP-Aktienwert von 0,104 USD oder 0,13A$ ( jetziger Kurs 0,092-0,097A$)