Update vom 26.Mai.2005-05-31
Rating: Strong Buy
Risiko: High Risk
Kurs (USD): 1,23
Kursziel (USD): 1,70
6-Monats-Kursziel 11 NOK (derzeit 8 NOK)
12-Monats-Kursziel 15 NOK
- We believe the current valuation mainly takes into account the gold mine in Greenland. Over the next 6 months we expect Crew’s news flow to increase valuation by almost 50% to NOK 11. Given that Crew delivers on its milestones, we believe that the share can double in 12 months
• Main value drivers are expected to be the Apex gold mine and the Mindoro Nickel Project, both located in the Philippines. Their potential should be visible in 2-6 months
• For Apex, we soon expect a lifting of subjects to the deal. We also expect assessments underpinning that the resource holds mineable and economic resources at least close to 1.5m Oz, potentially vastly more. This should open investor eyes, demonstrating a potential of 20 years+ of mining. At a cash cost around USD 217/Oz when plant upgrades are finished, Apex alone could well be worth NOK 6.5 per share.
• On the back of strong Nickel demand and prices, we expect Crew within 6 months to find a sponsor for a definitive feasibility study for the Mindoro nickel project. This could be a major value booster to this vast industrial project
• We further expect the Nalunaq Gold Mine over the next 2 quarters to demonstrate good production levels, with increasing volumes, grade and reduced cash cost. We also expect clear indications of resources more than doubling from the current 0.52mOz, indicating the resource potential of the Nalunaq mountain, possibly worth >NOK 7/share
• Other assets in the Crew portfolio also have interesting potential, among these are other gold projects in Greenland
• The risks are high but so are the rewards. We re-iterate our Strong Buy and 6mo/12mo target of NOK 11 and 15/share.
…
Investment summary - key value drivers
Crew’s equity story has developed strongly over the last year, and its main ambition is now to become a midsized gold producer during FY 2006 and develop a solid platform in Crew Minerals. Key deliverables in getting there will be:
1. Secure steady Nalunaq revenues & profits, based on annual gold production exceeding 100,000 ounces, and decreased cash cost through increased production and strict mining dilution control
2. Restart the gold production at Apex to produce 50,000 ounces annually within 6 months, thereafter increasing volumes through a plant upgrade to 100-120,000 Oz. during fiscal year 2006
3. Acquiring another gold producing asset with annual production capacity of around 100,000 ounces, and finally;
4. Long-term realization of Philippine potential, with completion of a definitive feasibility study for the Mindoro nickel project, which should be in place over the next 12 months.
By FY 2007, these 4 key elements will:
• propel Crew to a mid-tier gold producer – producing >300,000 ounces of gold annually
• lay the foundation of a split into two separately listed companies; Crew Gold and Crew Minerals
• Create 2 entities with combined market capitalization between NOK 2bn and 2.5bn
When fully up and running by 2007, the Nalunaq and Apex resources will together produce in excess of 200,000 ounces per year. Becoming a mid tier gold producer requires another 100,000 ounces in production. The management has been very explicit recently that it aims to acquire such producing assets within 12 months.
…
We do however believe there is strong upside to several of Crew’s assets. Our most optimistic cases point to values north of NOK 30 per share, but a more sober consideration of the medium term upside with our current knowledge is around NOK 12-15 per share. A positive outcome of the Mindoro Nickel project would drive that value substantially higher.
We believe there is solid upside and high likelihood of a positive news flow. During the last conference call management claimed the company had never been in a better position on Mindoro and a breakthrough could be only a couple of months away.
We re-iterate our Strong Buy and our NOK 11 share price target.