Beiträge von Ulfur

  • Für Elk-Spotter: Northland Resources - NAU

    Auszugsweiser Nachtrag eines Updates, etwa vom 18.09.


    Verifying the large IronOxideCopperGold Hannukainen deposit


    The 43-101 resource statement is the first updated independent stamp on Hannukainen, showing long mine life potential and indicating superb economics. We up target to 75 from 50. Strong Buy



    * The NI 43-101 published in August confirmed a large Iron Oxide Copper Gold (IOCG) resource (166mT) on Hannukainen.
    * Iron grades were lower than expected, leading to slightly higher cash cost. Copper and Gold grades also lower than expected. At current spot prices (Au 715 USD/Oz, Cu 7600 USD/t), the reported copper and gold grades translate to app. 360,000oz per annum gold equivalent production in addition to the iron. At our price assumptions (Au 650 USD/Oz, Cu 5000 USD/t), the copper & gold equ. grades are 270,000 Oz.
    * Despite the somewhat disappointing grades, the important issue to us is that the 43-101 for the first time gives mining investors an independent verification of this IOCG deposit, historically mined by Rautaruuki. We expect exceptional project economics from the by-products of copper and gold.
    * We believe in the iron ore super cycle, lasting at least another 2-3 decades as large emerging economies gradually comes out of poverty to enjoy economic prosperity. Short term, expectations are that iron ore price for 2008 increase 20-30% from 2007. The world can’t get enough ore for its infrastructure build-out, driven mainly by the BRIC’s growth.
    * The Company keeps adding world class people to its operation, recently including Stuart Pettifor (ex Director and acting CEO of Corus Steel) and Toumo Mäkelä (President of Outokumpu Mining Oy). We find management and board excellent, surely capable of developing Northland to a 1bnUSD sales company by 2012E.
    * Based on the new 43-101, we re-iterate our Strong Buy and increase our 12-month target from NOK 50 to NOK 75.
    * The recommendation was not presented to the issuer before dissemination


    Hannukainen & the 43-101 statement


    The Hannukainen deposit was mined in the eighties but abandoned when metal prices were low. It contains iron ore in addition to significant copper grades as well as some gold.


    The grades defined were lower than we had expected, and certainly so for gold. This is however of lesser importance as the grades are more than good enough to generate superb economics. The important matter was to get the first independently verified resource statement.


    Northland has previously said that around 4.5mT was mined historically, and the Finnish geological survey has a historic 60mT resource defined.


    The company has for more than a year been drilling with promising drill results. Combined with assaying of historic drill cores (stored by the Finnish Geological Survey), the 43-101 defined a total resource at the Hannukainen project area of 166mT. This is far more than we had hoped to see. There is still significant upside to these resources, because drilling continues to show promising mineralization. This is however of lesser importance, as the current definition translates to a minelife close to 20 years.


    The lower iron grades (in Laurinoja 2.5% lower Fe content than we had expected) means a higher strip ratio, which again leads to higher mining costs. The difference is rather insignificant, mined tonnage increase by 7%, equaling 1mT. At a mining costs of USD 8/ton this only yields an increase in the total cash cost of around 2.5%.


    More disappointing is the low gold grade, which leads to far lower gold production than we had reason to believe. It may be that production eventually delivers more gold than indicated in the 43-101 (surely indicated by recent drill results as well as historic production), but the 0.17 g/t of gold in Laurinoja will nevertheless produce around 45,000 Oz p.a. (5mT pellets p.a. from Laurinoja requires 9mT tonnage, containing 0.17 g/t yields 1.44m grams, equaling 49,117 Oz, then subtract some percents for dilution). At our gold price assumption of USD 650/Oz this gold can be sold for around USD 30m.


    The copper content is much more significant, yielding 28,000 tons p.a. (again assuming 5mT of pellet product and 9mT ore mined) – at our copper price assumption of USD 5,000 per tonne, this generates 140mUSD in additional revenues, translating to 215,000 Oz of gold equivalent revenues.


    Combined copper and gold revenues from Laurinoja can thus be calculated to USD 170m. Translated to gold equivalent revenues it would equal ~250,000 Oz of gold production p.a., a significant operation by itself. Since the mining cost already has been accounted for by the iron ore, the by-products of copper and gold are extremely profitable. This is the beauty of IOCG mines. They are few and far between, when found they can amass their owners a fortune if the tonnage and grades are good. In this case the deposit seems very promising, and the beauty of it all is it’s (still) badly understood and hardly marketed towards the stock market.


    This 43-101 statement for the first time enables investors to buy into a defined IOCG deposit and thereby digest the superb quality of Northland’s assets.


    Triggers going forward


    * Investor trip 19-20 September
    * Other analysts initiating coverage during the autumn and winter
    * Company news rest of the year includes more drilling data (from several deposits) and possibly also a scoping study on Stora Sahavaara
    * Company roadshow towards US investors and probably also UK during the autumn/winter
    * Possibly also analysts on site visit later this autumn
    * Much higher iron ore prices for 2008 (may be seen already late 2007), up 20-30% (?)
    * Feasibility studies late 2008 on Stora Sahavaara and Hannukainen
    * Possibly a Barsele trade sale next 12-18 months
    * Project rollout

  • DOMINION Mining (DOM). eine Austral-AU-Domina die´s bringt

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.insomniacmania.com/news/news_2306_1.jpg]


    Die Domina hat´s Gogh ganz schön eingeheizt.


    Das soll mit Hilfe ausgefeilter Analysetechnik so schnell nicht nochmal vorkommen: Nachkäufe von LAF und Southwestern Res. sehen vielversprechend aus. Auch GBS Gold International, die ich noch nicht weiter kenne, läßt mit einem Quartalsverlust von 10 Mio Aud noch Großes erwarten.


    Nachrichtlich für Kamikaze-Investoren: HIG im Trading Halt.

  • Straits Resources

    Diese Kapitalerhöhung, um die üblen Hedges bei der Tritton Grube wegzukriegen, sieht doch ganz anders aus, als die verzweifelte Aktion bei Lafayette.


    Aktienanzahl wurde um ca. 15% erhöht, um 134 Mio A$ einzunehmen, um u.a. die Hedgeverpflichtungen bei Tritton, die ca. 78 Mio US-$ (=88 Mio A$) aus dem Geld sind, abzulösen. Endlich fällt dieser Mühlstein weg.


    Danach folgt noch eine Kaperhöhung um max. 12 Mio A$ für Altaktionäre zum gleichen Preis von 4,7 A$.


    Aktie steigt um 4,3%.

  • Sitz u. Pits in Australia (Goldminen)

    Bombe geplatzt!


    Neuer Investor, bisherige Shareholder werden Minderheitsaktionäre.


    In Stage 1 werden Aktien auf 4 Milliarden Stück verwässert, in Stage 2 anscheinend auf 11 Mrd, so daß die bisherigen Aktien nur noch 9% der Firma ausmachten.


    Habe den Deal noch nicht verstanden, aber klar ist, ein böser Hedger hat wieder sein verdientes Ende gefunden.


    Aktie um 40% gefallen auf 0,027 A$.

  • Highlands Pacific

    Aus M. Siegels Kommentar vom 28.09.:


    Beurteilung: Highlands Pacific ist mit ihrer Produktion im Kainantu Projekt völlig gescheitert. Derzeit versucht die Gesellschaft mit dem Verkauf ihres Anteils am Ramu Nickelprojekt zu überleben. Ob dies gelingen kann, bleibt offen. Wegen der unsicheren Aussichten und des drohenden Konkurses stellen wir Highlands Pacific zum Verkauf und stellen die Aktie auf Beobachten.

  • Celtic resources, 569 801

    Celtic Resources Could Find It Has More Than One Suitor


    An interesting situation has arisen at Celtic Resources where the board has announced that Severstal Resurs, the second largest steel company in Russia, has made a bid of 220p per share. This is simply an opening gambit ...


    Anyway if it gets control of Celtic at this price it will have got a real bargain according to brokers Fox Davies Capital. In August when the first purchase was announced they put a target price of 417p on the shares.
    ...
    http://www.minesite.com/nc/min…re-than-one-suitor/1.html


    >Zieht man die Cashposition von 60Mio USD oder 56p/Aktie ab, beträgt die Marktkap 104 Mio Pfund, was für einen 90 koz Produzent, der Ende nächsten Jahres 150 koz erzeugen will, nicht viel wäre. <

  • Crew Gold Corp. WKN A0B L46 ISIN CA2265341057 CRU

    Kuddel,


    ich hoffe auch noch, daß Crew wieder aus dem Loch rauskommt, in das es sich gegraben hat.



    Bloomberg Artikel:


    Crew Gold Delays Acquisitions Until Mine Starts, Shares Recover


    By Stewart Bailey


    Sept. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Crew Gold Corp., which is developing Guinea's biggest gold mine, said acquisition plans for this year have been delayed until the mine is operating at full capacity and the company's share price recovers from a collapse.


    Chief Executive Officer Jan Vestrum said in February the company planned production of 500,000 ounces of gold in 2007 and would make an acquisition to help it reach annual output of 1 million ounces by 2010. The stock has dropped 30 percent this year, trailing the 21 percent gain of the Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index, which tracks the world's 16 largest gold producers.


    Crew, based in Vancouver, expects to produce 380,000 ounces to 420,000 ounces of gold from the Lefa mine in Guinea by 2009, Vestrum said today in an interview in Denver. The Masara mine in the Philippines will yield as much as 180,000 ounces by then, and the Nalunaq site in Greenland will produce 100,000 ounces, the company said in an Aug. 15 statement.


    ``Until we have Guinea up and running, there is no likelihood we'll do any mergers and acquisitions,'' Vestrum said. ``With the share price where it is, no.''


    The company has rejected approaches from investment bankers seeking to take advantage of the depressed share price, Vestrum said. Crew's shareholder structure, which includes about 19 percent held by Norwegian industrialist Jens Ulltveit-Moe and other investors ``very well-known'' to Crew's management, makes it unlikely a hostile bid would succeed, he said.


    Ulltveit-Moe, who acquired 1.69 million new shares in the company on Sept. 18, will have an ``active role'' in Crew, Vestrum said. He may also assist in corporate activity ``sooner or later,'' he added.


    Crew shares rose 8 cents, or 4.7 percent, to C$1.78 as of 1:45 p.m. in Toronto Stock Exchange composite trading.


    To contact the reporter on this story: Stewart Bailey in New York at sbailey7@bloomberg.net .
    Last Updated: September 24, 2007 17:32 EDT
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/…r=CRU:CN&sid=aiRYi5QoPL9Q

  • Sitz u. Pits in Australia (Goldminen)

    LAF hat die Zusagen einiger Großaktionäre erhalten, so daß es erst mal weitergeht.


    Die Situation bleibt schwierig, so daß einige die Wiederaufnahme des Handels genutzt haben, um auszusteigen. Damit ist die Aktie um weitere 20% auf 3,2 Aussiecent abgesackt.


    Seit ihrem Hoch im März 05 mit etwa 25 Cent je Aktie hat die Tretmine etwa 87% ihres Wertes verloren.

  • Crew Gold Corp. WKN A0B L46 ISIN CA2265341057 CRU

    Na, da ist es günstig, daß die Analyseabteilung einer Finanzierungsbank von Crew noch nicht den Optimismus verloren hat.


    Update von Pareto


    Dirt cheap, upping to Strong Buy


    Crew has been hammered down on production delays and cost overruns. The share price is now well below NAV. We expect strong re-rating over the next 6 months when Lefa finally ramps up.



    Crew has been hammered on disappointing project progress (particularly on Lefa), we now find the share price has fallen to levels that warrants a Strong Buy recommendation.
    The current resources base, including reserves, is close to 10mOz. Our NAV based on this is around 30% higher than the current valuation, NOK 12/share. This increases when Lefa gets fully commissioned, because production ounces in the gold world are slightly more valuable and because the market then also will factor the Apex ramp up.
    Most mining companies with good exploration results are valued at a premium to their NAV, this should also be the case when Crew delivers strong production ramp up. The market may well be ready to discount its nuts and bolts long before they are all pulled together early next year.
    The company expects a resource update on Lefa during 3q, and the annual yearend reserve and resource update is to be completed in 1q08. These updates should increase resources significantly, and the geology holds so promising data such that longer term exploration targets are aggressive.
    Looking to DCF, we arrive at a low case value of NOK 21/share. This is based on what we find is a likely minimum minelife of the various projects, partly based on existing resource base and partly based on discussion with its engineers and geologist. If the company continues to expand its resource base (very important for the Apex property which today has very low resource base), a much longer minelife is realistic and the DCF value may well exceed NOK 30/share. Maintaining USD 4 target, we up to Strong Buy
    The recommendation was not presented to the issuer before dissemination.


    Crew has been hammered on disappointing project progress (particularly on Lefa), we find the share price to have fallen so much as to warrant a Strong Buy recommendation. The energy and money put into its projects has a far higher value than its current share price implies. There is some short term financing risk, the company will probably need another USD 50m in fresh cash by yearend. This may be done through an equity offering or a new bond - the model assumes debt. This is a small amount relative to the company’s financial gearing and also relative to its market capitalization. We believe the operational disappointment, combined with fear of a highly dilutive share issue, has pushed the share price to highly attractive levels.


    The current resources base, including reserves, is close to 10mOz. The company expects a resource update on Lefa during 3q, and the annual yearend reserve and resource update is to be completed in 1q08. These updates should increase resources significantly. The geology is very promising both at Lefa and Apex, and the company has quite aggressive longer term exploration targets.

  • Crew Gold Corp. WKN A0B L46 ISIN CA2265341057 CRU

    Nun ziehen auch die bislang so optimistischen Analysten nach.


    We reduce our target price to NOK 13 (17) on the back of less visibility in the short-term during the ramp-up. This has made us more cautious, and we want to see more production before we include the aggressive growth going forward. However, Crew Gold is still a growth story, and we believe that there is more chance of hiking up our long- term assumptions than adjusting them downwards. We stick to our BUY. Less visibility during the ramp-up has made us more cautious with our forecast. Low visibility and high uncertainty in the ramp-up at Lefa and the expansion programme at Masara have made us lower our production estimates and increase our cash cost projections in the short-term (down 40koz in '07 and 145koz in '08 ). We want to see management prove its ability to get Lefa and Masara to reach a steady state before we include a more aggressive long-term growth (long-term production target is down by 9%).Crew Gold's cash situation is stretched, despite its stake in Crew Minerals We believe that Crew Gold has to produce 45-50koz during a quarter to break even at Lefa and our production estimates for Q3 and Q4'07 are now 34koz and 45koz (down from 48koz and 67koz, respectively). Our analysis shows that Crew will use all its funds during Q3 and Q4'07, and we believe it is likely that it will need extra financing. Production focus should not be on the coming quarters Due to the ramp-up, production is hard to predict at Lefa and we therefore argue that the most important milestone is the completion of the ramp-up and the run rate going forward. We believe the ramp-up will be completed during Q2'08, with a run rate at Lefa in Q3 of 360koz-390koz, depending on the grade. The current drilling at Lefa indicates higher grade and continuing strong reserve growth, which highlights Crew as a growth case.Our DCF value returns a value of NOK 11.4, but peers justify a value of NOK 13.5. However, based on our new production estimates for 2008, peer valuation points at NOK 17.