Die Minderproduktion im ersten Quartal war keine Ausnahme. Die letzte Präsentation vom Juni vermeldet eine drastische Herabstufung des diesjährigen Produktionsziels von früher erwarteten 500-600 koz auf nur noch 290-350 koz. Auf die Ausreden im nächsten Quartalsbericht darf man schon gespannt sein. Vermutlich wird auf Kapazitätserweiterungen für die nächsten Jahre bei Lefa verwiesen. Das hatten wir bei Masara auch schon: 2005 wurde die Produktion für 07/06-06/07 auf 100-120 koz geschätzt (von Pareto), jetzt wurde die Schätzung für das Kalenderjahr 2007 auf magere 40-60 koz zurückgenommen.
Pareto Update:
Delayed production growth, but the gold values are intact.
When Crew delivers on its revised production profile next year, the underlying values defend NOK 20-25 per share. 12-18 month target NOK 25.
Crew recently announced changes to production targets for 2007, most importantly missing its projected Lefa production by 100-150,000 Oz. This came as a big surprise and the stock was hammered. Most of the downside is taken out.
• The value of the gold in the ground is intact, in fact the company has over the last few weeks delivered encouraging drilling results from its exploration program in Guinea.
• The ramp up at Lefa will be delayed by 9-15 months, this because new impellers and gear systems will have to be manufactured. The positive consequence is that reengineering will be done with optimized flowsheet leading to higher tonnage capacity. The capacity increase is estimated to between 50-100,000 Oz p.a..
• Our peer group comparison shows that Crew should defend values around NOK 20/share when looking to 2008.
• The company will probably have to demonstrate production ramp up before investors are willing to re-price the stock towards peers. In that sense Crew has become a waiting game, another year will go by before we can reach our target price, unless there is a takeover situation.
• The bid on Meridian gold last week shows that consolidation continues at good pace, its valuation would defend Crew Gold values of around NOK 25 per share.
Crew is set to deliver strong production growth and it is a highly undervalued company relative to peers when this happens. We re-iterate Buy and NOK 25 share price target.
• The recommendation was not presented to the issuer before dissemination.
SUMMARY.
Crew in mid May announced changes to production targets for 2007, missing its annual gold output by 100-150,000 Oz. and delaying ramp up by 9-15 months.
We believe Crew still has a good equity story. It will take longer than previously expected, but its value relative to peers when looking into 2008E is deep discounted. A stand alone value would justify NOK 20/share, and an acquisition scenario could realize NOK 25 or more.
The negative surprise. Breakdown at Lefa during final commissioning, leading to delays of 9-15 months.
Crew recently announced changes to production targets for 2007, missing its annual gold output by 100-150,000 Oz. This came as a big surprise and the stock was hammered from NOK 16.5 to NOK 12.
Clearly, Crew had ambitious growth targets for 2007. Stepping up production in one year from 150,000 to 600,000 ounces would have been far more than any other medium sized gold company targeted, and ultimately Crew failed.
The key reason leading to the shortfall relates to last minute technical break down during the final commissioning stage at Lefa. We had people on site just a few weeks prior to the negative news, and at that time 90-95% of commissioning was complete without bigger problems. As throughput reached full blast the plant did not handle the volumes, and impellers as well as gear systems broke down under the higher pressure.
When Crew bought into Guinor, the capex budget on the Lefa plant was USD 144m, including 7m in contingencies. After the acquisition there has been several cost overruns. The capex was on the first such occasion upped to USD 166m, a few months later the figure was revised to around 180mUSD. The latest news takes the figures well above 200m, in addition the re-engineering also involve capacity upgrades, meaning the total plant expenditure on Lefa becomes around USD 220m.
Disregarding the capacity upgrade, the cost has thus increased by 50% relative to projection given when Guinor was acquired.
One may of course also ask what technical due diligence Crew had done beforehand on the equipment, and whether the Guinor management (including the site managers) were overly optimistic, but we will probably never get an exact answer. This is now history and most likely also sunk costs. The cost overruns are big but one should not be very surprised when projects like these come at higher costs. Considering that a new plant probably today would cost USD 400m or more, this 2nd hand plant is still a good investment.
The ramp up at Lefa will be delayed by 9-15 months, this because new impellers and gear systems will have to be manufactured. The positive consequence is that re-engineering will be done with optimized flowsheet leading to higher tonnage capacity. The capacity increase is estimated to between 50-100,000 Oz p.a..
The gold values are intact and attractively valued
Gold companies’ reserves and resources are valued highly relative to the underlying commodity price, particularly for producing goldmines, because gold is discounted at a low discount rate. Gold is the ultimate currency.
For the Lefa project, the gold in the ground is still there, and the company is running the new plant, albeit at low capacity. Getting the plant up and running to full capacity is no rocket science. It will happen, Lefa will produce 300,000 and 400,000 Oz per annum, and probably also much higher output will be reached after the 2 years due to increasing grades from satellite deposits. The discounted value of the production cash flow is hardly affected by the production delay.
Crew Gold’s equity story is therefore still good. Crew is set to deliver strong production growth and it is a highly undervalued company relative to peers when this happens. We also expect Crew to be an attractive take candidate when the company demonstrates its potential.
In the meantime (next 9-12 months) it will be a waiting game, hopefully with some good newsflow on project progress and drilling - both at Lefa and Apex. Crew has in fact recently had two positive drilling updates from the area.