...........kann niemand voraussagen,jedoch wird intensiv in richtung Wiedereröffnung gearbeitet.Dass sich diese Bemühungen nicht im Kurs wiederspiegeln könnte folgenden Grund haben.
BoNY/Mellon hatte sich mehr als 10% aller BCL Aktien (+ 40 Mill Shares) in AU ausgeliehen u. ohne zu transferieren daraus + 120 Millionen ADRs ausgegeben.(bei einem Freefloat von 100 Mill St) Die akt. Top 100 Shareholderliste vom 30 Juni, umfasst 95% aller ausgegebenen Shares. ( http://www.bougainville-copper.eu )
In den letzten 10 Jahren gab es keine grossen Veränderungen in der Top 100 Shareholderlisten. (Einsehbar am ende der jährlich veröffentlichten Geschäftsberichte unter http://www.stocknessmonster.com.au
Ausserdem sollen noch ca. 10 Mill BCL Aktien seit Jahrzehnten als Original psychische Shares im Besitz der Bougainviller befinden. Da stellt sich die Frage woher die 20 Mill. seit anfang des Jahres in AU und D gehandelten Shares herkommen.
M.M. nach besteht immer noch eine grosse BoNY Shortposition u. also ein Interesse an niedrigen Kursen.
Ein Hinweis könnte sein dass die BoNY genau zu dem Zeitpunkt das ADR Programm gecancelt hat als sich durch die Initiative von Ex-Präsident James Tanis Bemühungen zur Wiedereröffnung der Pangunamine abzuzeichnen begannen.Die ADR Besitzer wurden vor die Wahl gestellt ihre ADRs gegen eine Gebühr von 5 Ct pro Share (bei einem Kurs von 0,50 AUD) in Originalaktien zu tauschen. Ansonsten gab es 50 AUct als Abfindung.
Bei der BoNY hatte wohl niemand damit gerechnet dass ein Grossteil der ADR Besitzer ihre ADRs zum Tausch einreichen würden.
Kommt es in den nächsten Monaten auf Bougainville zu einer Einigung das BCA (Bougainville Copper Agreement) neu zu verhandeln so konkretisiert sich die Wiedereröffnung was mit steigenden Kursen einhergehen dürfte.
In diesem Fall könnte es zu einem gigantischen Short-squeeze kommen.
Battle intensifies over Bougainville copper
Quelle: The Australian, 16.7.2011
Claims that Rio Tinto funded the civil war and fostered atrocities
on Bougainville are being resurrected as a hurdle to the reopening
there of the copper mine, whose proven reserves are worth at least
$50 billion.
Today the opposition to the mine is strongest overseas,
especially among Australia's trade unions and non-government
organisations. The Australian Greens have also joined the attacks.
This is happening just as the reopening, after a full renegotiation
of the terms, is winning overwhelming support on impoverished
Bougainville; more than 97 per cent support it, according to
Bougainville president John Momis.
The day after SBS One's Dateline program about Bougainville was
broadcast on June 26, the Bougainville Copper Ltd share price
slumped 18 per cent.
German investor Axel Sturm, possibly the company's largest
individual shareholder, said "confidence in BCL, which is equated
with confidence in Bougainville and its people, has been severely
damaged. Months of re-polishing Bougainville's image [have] been
spoiled within a few hours."
The program hinged on a 10-year-old affidavit signed while
he was in opposition by Papua New Guinea's prime minister Michael
Somare, whose family announced this week that he will retire
because he is seriously ill in a Singapore hospital.
Somare, who was foreign minister as Bougainville lurched into civil
war, signed the affidavit that claimed "the actions taken by PNG to
reopen the mine were not done for any public benefit except
derivatively as the money the government made in its joint venture
with BCL would trickle down to benefit the PNG citizenry".
The mine provided the PNG government with about 20 per cent of its
annual income when it was forced to close 22 years ago.
Somare signed the affidavit that said that Rio "controlled the
government" of which he was a part. It said: "BCL was directly
involved in the military operations on Bougainville, and it played
an active part. It supplied helicopters, which were used as
gunships, the pilots, troop transportation, fuel, and troop
barracks. It knew bloodshed was likely to occur because it
instructed the government of PNG to reopen the mine 'by whatever
means necessary'."
It said that although BCL participated in "the atrocities", "no
provision in the peace agreement addresses or resolves any civil
liability or international law claim, which I understand are the
issues in this litigation".
However, Rabbie Namaliu, the prime minister during the first
four years of the conflict, told Inquirer that the Iroquois
helicopters used by the PNG army were deployed under an agreement
he signed with Australia's then-prime minister Bob Hawke in
Canberra.
Nicole Allmann, now living in Queensland and who watched the SBS
program, said: "The four Iroquois helicopters that were given to
the PNG Defence Force by Australia were operated, maintained and
crewed by Heli Bougainville for the PNGDF. "I worked for Heli
Bougainville during the crisis and did all of the invoicing. I
invoiced the PNG Defence Force for this and not BCL."
Namaliu said that "under the state of emergency laws, the
controller can command access to any logistics support he
requires".
By the time the government deployed troops, BCL's staff had left
Bougainville leaving vehicles behind, some of which were
commandeered. "To suggest that Rio did it deliberately is factually
wrong. When I heard about those claims, I thought the whole thing
was rather unfair. And Sir Michael is not in a position to make any
response."
But after the SBS program Western Australian Greens Senator
Scott Ludlam demanded: "Rio Tinto must reveal the full extent
of its involvement in the Bougainville war. And the Australian
government must also explain its own role, and what it knew about
the role of BCL. It's time for the whole truth behind it to be
known."
Ludlam claimed that the war drove half of the population from their
homes, and that "the conflict claimed 15,000 lives". This total
remains guesswork, although many did die who would have survived
sickness before the war. Many additional deaths also occurred on
mainland PNG because of the impact on health care of the sudden
loss of government income.
A report in Socialist Alternative earlier this year said "it
is a sign of the madness of capitalism that Rio Tinto did not close
down BCL". The publication praised union efforts at the Rio Tinto
annual meeting in Melbourne last year to oppose the mine's
reopening. The union members included "a delegation of miners from
Hunter Valley, maritime workers from the Victorian branch of the
MUA", and the CFMEU (Mining and Energy section). It said that "if
you wondered why socialists say Australia is the major imperialist
power in this region, here's your answer", the Bougainville
conflict.
The BCL executive chairman Peter Taylor, who is also now
president of the Australia PNG Business Council, denied the
allegations made in the affidavit signed by Somare. He recently led
a business delegation to Bougainville, in what was the first visit
to the island by a BCL chairman for more than 20 years.
Somare's affidavit is being used in a class action initiated a
decade ago in California, being conducted by the famous
contingency fee lawyer Steve Berman. This action, another barrier
to reopening the mine, has already been struck out once, but has
been reintroduced because it has become a crucial test case for the
extraterritorial reach of US courts.
Its original US connection was that it was backed by Alexis
Holyweek Sarei, a former Catholic priest and diplomat who
married an American former nun, Claire. He said that if he returned
to PNG from California, where he was living, he risked "grave
harm". But he did return, and a year ago was elected to the
Bougainville parliament, which strongly backs the reopening. He is
one of the 20 people named in the action.
Lawrence Daveona, an executive member of the Panguna Landowners
Association that represents the people who own the mine site,
has declared the association's full support of the moves to
renegotiate the Bougainville Copper Agreement, and its opposition
to the court case. The case, which accuses Rio Tinto -- 53.58 per
cent owner of BCL, with 19.06 per cent owned by the PNG government
and 27.36 per cent by other shareholders -- of war crimes, was set
up by US lawyer Paul Stocker, now 87, a friend of Somare who
once lived in PNG.
Stocker has said: "I can't think of anything (Rio) did that
wouldn't make Adolf Hitler happy." The case claims Bougainvilleans
who worked for the mine, "all of whom were black", operated in
"slave-like" conditions.
Mekere Morauta, PNG prime minister when the class action was
filed, said at the time that even if successful if would not be
enforceable in PNG because of the Compensation Act there.
Bougainvilleans will vote within four years on whether they
want to split from PNG. This heightens the stakes for the reopening
of the mine, with Bougainville wishing to secure the lion's share
of the revenues, and also possibly some or all of PNG's equity.
The determination of BCL to reopen the mine itself,
underlined by chairman Taylor, creates a formidable obstacle to
potential competitors. China is the likely buyer of most of the
mine product, and Chinese interests have been associated with
Bougainville. Momis was formerly PNG's ambassador to China.
But last weekend a group of Chinese businesspeople who had
expressed an interest in investing in real estate on Bougainville
were barred by landowners from visiting the mine site at Panguna.
One landowner, former combatant Chris Uma, said: "We did not
fight for the Chinese to come over."
