Beiträge von Waldfrosch

  • Wie geht es auf dem Goldmarkt weiter

    Jason Hommel meldet sich mal wieder zu Wort



    by Jason Hommel


    Excellent Market Opportunities
    Why I'm not worried.
    Silver Stock Report
    by Jason Hommel, August 16, 2007


    My portfolio has suffered a 15% drop since July 31st. I suppose this is not too bad, considering that others in the precious metals industry have lost 50% to 60%. And I suppose this is great, considering that some who invested in junk mortgages have lost everything.


    Three times in the past 7 years, my portfolio has suffered 50% drops, and recovered to gain over 1000%. So, hopefully, this is about the bottom. After all, many mining stocks are literally dirt cheap, and trading at 52 week lows.


    I do not sell out of the sector; I never have, not in 7 years. I trade, but only to trade one stock for another, never holding more than about 5% in cash. The reason is because I can never predict these short term moves. Tomorrow, things could go up 10%, across the board in the metals stocks, who knows.


    All I know to do is to invest long term, and to buy things that are dirt cheap. My stocks were cheap yesterday, and they are even better bargains today.


    My top stock pick, and largest holding, remains Baja Mining. I own 588,700 shares.


    hat jemand dort subscribed und kennt sein Portfolio? 8)

  • Wie geht es auf dem Goldmarkt weiter

    Gold Looks Very Predictable Here


    By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks





    -- Posted Wednesday, 27 June 2007 | Digg This Article




    Rick’s Picks


    Tuesday, June 27, 2007


    “Phenomenally accurate forecasts”


    Comex Gold has been moving with near-absolute fidelity to our Hidden Pivot targets lately, so there is little reason for subscribers to agonize over where the “Auggies” may be headed next. The answer, unfortunately but obviously, is lower. But the good news is that this particular phase of gold’s decline has the potential not only to engender a low that can be bottom-fished aggressively with a micro-tight stop-loss, but also to carve out an intermediate-term bottom. The precise target is repeated in the Touts section of today’s newsletter for those of you who may have missed it the first time around.






    Chat room regulars will already know that our Hidden Pivot price targets for gold rarely miss, and that even when they do, it is usually by no more than a tick or two. Sometimes these turning points seem so very predictable that we designate them as “hula numbers,” the implication being that, if they should fail to work exactly as forecast, we will subject ourselves to the humiliation of donning a grass skirt and dancing a hula in Times Square in the middle of February. :D :D :D We have yet to lose this bet, but neither are we eager to overdo it, since Times Square in the middle of winter is not an especially appealing place for the partially clad. Nevertheless, we are sufficiently confident in the current downside target to suggest that it be leveraged aggressively by anyone who feels that gold has gotten the better of him or her in recent months. Happy hunting!


    scheint wert sein hier subscriber zu werden, kennt den Rick wer?

  • Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

    We have received several inquiries today, so I decided to take some time away from my work on the July edition of The Morgan Report to address the metals markets.


    Mr Morgan,
    How about a special "emergency" email/comment to you subscribers on the current silver market conditions. Is it now a bear market? In times like this we need to know your latest position?


    Sincerely yours,
    Paul


    This is one of several comments we received today. First let us review what we stated in the June issue.


    Quoting:


    As always, you need as much specific information as possible to help with
    your investment decisions. Here is how we currently see the precious
    metals markets. The structure of the market is such that the trend remains
    up as long as gold does not close below $648.00 and silver does not close
    below $12.62 basis the cash price (spot). If these levels hold, then this
    will be the area of finishing off the base building for a further up move.


    However, we are not going to be convinced that we are finally in our next
    leg up until we see gold over $684.00 and silver over $13.94 again. Bottom
    line: buy throughout the summer/fall on weakness, and if silver and gold
    fall hard, buy more!


    Today gold closed at $643.70 and silver closed at $12.34. As we often state one day does not make a market but we have closed below the technical levels outlined and most of our subscribers know we adhere to a three day rule, meaning any support or resistance level that is penetrated needs to be verified by the market. We want to watch and if the metals remain below $648 for gold and $12.62 for silver we will have a strong probability that both of these markets are going lower.


    Are we in a bear market?


    No we are not in a bear market.


    To be in a bear market would require the major up trend lines to be pierced and we are a very long way from that taking place. This of course is part of the "problem" because from a technical perspective only gold could drop to perhaps $525 and silver to the $10.00 level and we would still be in a bull market!




    The blue arrow is pointing to approximately $525 and shows the amount of movement gold could go down and still be above the major up trend line. Notice also that gold is resting on the 50 day moving average, however silver pierced it today see chart below.




    Looking at silver we could see silver move down to $10.00 and still remain in a major up trend, however silver did move under the 50 day moving average a strong hint this market may be going lower. Again we MUST apply the 3 day rule and watch.


    Study this chart carefully, notice when silver finally bottomed out in September 2003 right at the 200 day average it moved above $5.50 and very quickly shot up to the $8.40 level. Next silver kissed the major up trend in September 2005 near $7.00 and shot up to the $15 level by May 2006. Do you think silver could touch the $10 level, only to shoot up to $22 over eight months?


    First, let us state the 3 day rule is not perfect and the market could get a good bounce tomorrow June 27th, 2007 and this would not really prove anything, basically the best stance to take is to wait a few trading days say 3-5 and see what the market does. The next issue of the Morgan Report should be posted Sunday night or Monday July 2nd.


    The bull market can be tough indeed, I was on two radio shows today and Dow Jones London contacted us to give our take on the sell off. What is important to remember is the fundamentals have not changed, the reason you invested in the precious metals to begin with remains the same. Secondly, and very importantly large secular bull markets normally touch the major up trend line somewhere in the middle to late in the cycle. So it is possible to touch or get close to the major up trend line at some point.


    The tough question is what action to take? First we were buyers of stocks today. Would not take a position in the metals themselves without seeing more trading. As we have stated in the past two issues plan to accumulate over the summer and into the fall. We said in the June issue to plan out your strategy to be fully invested by year end 2007. This has not changed.


    "Be right, Sit tight"


    This is the inscription on the pen all of us who attended the Bob Bishop "roast" at the Vancouver Gold show received as a memento. Bob Bishop was one of the more famous newsletter writers in this sector and highly regarded by all. I agree with Bob, you are right it is tough to sit when the market moves strongly against you but there is no need to panic, the precious metals are the best investment in these uncertain times.


    Sincerely,
    The Silver Investor

  • Call-Optionsscheine auf Silber

    Zeit diesen alten thread wieder wachzuküssen


    Ende Juni ist der Zug abgefahren, bis dahin dümpeln wir vielleicht noch um die 13 rum, danach schnallt den Gurt an, denn dann schießt Silber (und Gold) nach oben. Ich hab mich schon mal abgesichert mit meinem langjährigen Liebling (meine Freundin:-) LZ 0907, strike 12 EUR


    50% sind hier locker drinnen, ohne totalverlustgefahr so wie die "Vollpfosten" die sich hier herinnen knock out OS kaufen und das risk-return Verhältnis total ausklammern...



    beim letzten Auszucker vor ca.2-3 Wochen hat der OS innerhalb Tagen 50% gewonnen...diesmal wirds nochmehr wenn wir das langmonatige Dreieck nach oben verlassen!


    übrigens Hochachtung dass sich die Go(e)ldpreisdrü(u)ckmaschinerie heute wagt ins offene Messer zu laufen wo der USD wiedermal Gras fressen muss, die verschießen sinnlos Munition weil sich Gold+Silber heute sicher wieder bis zu die Tageshöchststände zurückhantelt!


    8o

  • Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

    schöner chart silver, da ich seit gestern im Besitz dieses Buches bin von Clif Droke, das sensationell viele paraboloide Formen in charts herauslöst und analysiert


    http://www.clifdroke.com/books/book21.mgi


    und es in diesem Buch nur so von wilden paraboloiden Figuren wimmelt habe ich hier auch mal eine dazugefügt.


    Rein fundamental sehe ich noch eine Ausspülung Ende Juni, v.a. getrieben vom letzten Aufschrei des sterbenden Tieres USD, ausserdem müssen die Aktienmärkte die US-Krise erst einpreisen und das zieht Gold unweigerlich runter, die nächsten Tage sollten sich die bugs aber die Hände reiben :P


    würde auch dem Grundsatz entsprechen dass der Bullenmarkt erst nach der letzten Ausspülung nach oben ausbricht (war 2005 zumindest so)


    Der china selloff sollte an den normaläugigen Aktienmärkten vorbeiziehen wie ein einzelner Regentropfen im Amazonas, der nächste Auslöser für den Aktienmarkteinbruch ist der Wurm selbst: US, jetzt sollen angeblich verstärkt die Makrodaten hereinkommen von den manipulierenden Witzfiguren.

  • Wie geht es auf dem Goldmarkt weiter

    Why Silver will Soar above $230/oz.
    Silver Stock Report
    by Jason Hommel, May 14, 2007



    "The CPM Silver Yearbook 2007" was released today.
    http://www.cpmgroup.com/


    To summarize CPM's press release:


    They conclude that net silver investment demand was about 60 million ounces for 2006, up from 2005, and expected to continue to rise into 2007.


    Investor demand is from India, the Middle East, and the West, as a part of protection from inflation, and a participation in the commodity boom.


    Silver mine supply is expected to increase slightly, 3%, to 520 million ounces.


    India's central bank selling of about 60 million ounces of silver over a few years is now finished.


    Warren Buffet sold his 130 million ounces prior to the introduction of the Silver ETF's purchase of about 130 million ounces, so those investment moves tended to balance each other out.


    It was pointed out that new investor demand is a significant change and is helping to explain the dramatic increases in the silver price.


    My thoughts on this:


    The amount of money in U.S. banks, M3, is about $12 trillion. Net silver demand was 60 million ounces at about $11/oz., or $660 million dollars. So, the money that is going into silver to protect itself from inflation is equivalent to 0.00005% ($660 million out of $12,000,000 million!) of what could be spent on silver, in the U.S. alone.


    So, I think a ridiculously tiny amount of paper dollars has shifted into silver, so far.


    If 1% of U.S. money supply, M3, attempts to buy silver to protect itself from inflation, that would be $120 billion dollars.


    All the silver expected to be mined in the world for 2007, is 520 million ounces. At $14/oz., that's $7 billion dollars.


    If 520 million ounces of silver were allocated to $120 billion dollars of investment demand, with no silver left over for any industrial demand, then silver would cost $230/oz. ($120,000 million/520 million oz.)


    The current rate of inflation is a 10% increase of M3 per year. Therefore, a future of 1% of money going towards investment demand for silver would still only be the beginning of the rise in the price of silver.


    The Federal Reserve, and Ben Bernanke, are desperate to control people's expectations of inflation. Look what Bernanke said last year (see the second to last paragraph, at this link):
    http://www.federalreserve.gov/…2006/20060605/default.htm



    "The best way to prevent increases in energy and commodity prices from leading to persistently higher rates of inflation is by anchoring the public’s long-term inflation expectations."



    In other words, Bernanke said, "The best way to prevent inflation from getting out of control, is to control everyone's thoughts about inflation."


    Inflation expectations will lead people to buy silver. If people buy silver, the price of silver will go up. As silver goes up, inflation will get worse. As inflation gets worse, people will buy more silver. What will stop it? Mind control?


    As I explained yesterday, I have a well-researched religious belief that the world will return to using gold and silver as money, before Jesus returns at the rapture before the tribulation.
    http://bibleprophesy.org/summary.html


    I know that some of the vocal minority think that anything the Bible says is fantasy. Excuse me. Paper money is the fantasy.


    The reality of the situation is that today in the real world, there is not enough silver, and way too much paper money. Paper money will fail. Silver will not. Holders of real silver will become wealthy beyond what we can even imagine.

  • Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

    hi Goldfreunde


    irgendwie sehe ich hier einen parabolischen Ansatz im letzten Wipfel, der mich neben der Tatsache dass das reine unkorrelierte Gold eigentlich irre stark fiel die letzten Wochen. Die Korrelationsobjekte USD, Öl, auch Industriemetalle sind eindeutig zugunsten Gold ausgefallen und das massivst, und diese zeigen von der Technik eine Fortführung an.


    Gold sitzt rum und dreht den Golddaumen am Webstuhl der das Muster schon kennt und nur noch wartet es zu manifestieren


    ich vermute die Errektion auf die ich schon seit Monaten warte in mittelfristigen Aufwärtskampfversuchen ist da (siehe parabolische Manier im chartteil rechts) , die Erruption lässt noch auf sich warten..


    Verkaufen = verlieren 8o,
    Kaufen = Kewinnen :]


    Gold bless you

  • Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

    ich finde es komisch dass ich schon 100erte Artikel auf diversen Goldseiten las, aber noch keiner kommentierte wie sich Edelmetalle in Rezessionen verhalten. Dass Amerika auf eine zusteuert bzw. bei Zugrundelegung korrektem Zahlenmaterial bereits seit Jahren in einer steckt - dass die Rezession also hochaktuelles Thema spricht keiner an, seltsam eigentlich, normalerweise kracht doch Gold und SIlber hier mit ab, oder? kurzfristig also heisses Eisen diese Metalle sagt auch der da unten :rolleyes:

  • Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

    da wart ich lieber noch bis die Minen 10% weiterkrachen dann beginn ich alles aufzukaufen, sitz doch nicht mit meinen fetten A-backen auf Werte wo ich zu 100% weiß dass sie sinken müssen wenn ich davon ausgehe dass es historisch betrachtet bei so einem schrecklichen Kracher am 1.Tag die Märkte mindestens 4-5 Wochen brauchen um Verlorenes wiedergutzumachen, den letzten derartigen Einbruch gab es on 09/11 und wie lang haben wir da gebraucht zur Rückkehr???


    immer logisch denken und nicht stur..dh es ist sehr wahrscheinlich dass die Minen bald ihr nächstes Krachkonzert im Geigenfidel des Aktienmarktes einfach lächerlich nachjodeln


    seid ihr plötzlich zu Aktienmarkt-bugs mutiert oder glaubt ihr dass die nächsten Wochen Gold so viel steigt (wo doch auch positiv korreliert mit AKtienmarkt) dass die Minen sich gerade so über Wasser halten? ;(