Beiträge von GoldenCentury

05 Nov 2004 19:11

05.11.2004 19:00:51 Gold auf neuem 16-Jahre-Hoch

London, 05. Nov (Reuters) - Im Gefolge eines schwachen Dollars hat der Goldpreis am Freitag einen neuen 16-jährigen Höchststand erreicht.

Zum Schluss des europäischen Geschäfts notierte Gold bei 432,35/433,10 (Vorabend 430,55/431,30) Dollar. Das Tageshoch lag bei 433,90 Dollar, dem höchsten Wert seit August 1988. Das Nachmittagsfixing in London erfolgte bei 431,00 Dollar nach 428,75 Dollar am Morgen. Eine Schweizer Grossbank gab den Gold-Kilopreis mit 16.330/16.580 (Vorabend 16.303/16.553) sfr an.

Ein Händler bei Kleinwort Wasserstein in London erklärte, mit steigenden Kursen nehme zwar immer die Gefahr zu, dass Gewinne mitgenommen würden. Dennoch schliesse die Bank einen Test der Kursmarke von 437,50 Dollar nicht aus.

Mittelfristig sei ein Goldpreis von 461/464 Dollar nicht ausgeschlossen, hiess es bei JP Morgan.

Charttechnisch gesehen befinde sich zwischen 435 und 437,50 Dollar eine Widerstandszone, so Experten. Falls dieser, allerdings starke Widerstand gebrochen werde könne, sei rein charttechnisch der Weg frei bis auf 465 Dollar.

Ob diese Perspektive realistisch sei, sei dahingestellt, so der Chartexperte. Auf jeden Fall dürfte Gold am Montag im Handel in Asien weiter anziehen.

Auf 460 Dollar lautete der Goldpreis zuletzt Anfang Juni 1988. Im Januar davor waren 470 Dollar verzeichnet worden.

ajs

© Reuters 2004

05 Nov 2004 16:21

05.11.2004 16:00:38 Commodities News Summary

TOP NEWS
> NY gold retreats from highs on strong jobs report [nN05676780]

NEW YORK - Gold futures fell more than 1 percent in New York on Friday, pulling back from Thursday's 16-year highs, after a surprise 337,000 jump in October U.S. non farm payrolls lifted the dollar.

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> London cocoa leaps 3.5 pct on Ivory Coast bombing [nL05591010]

LONDON - London cocoa futures moved sharply higher on Friday on reports that Ivory Coast's army had resumed aerial bombing of rebels in the north of the world's top cocoa grower, traders said.

LIFFE's benchmark December contract jumped 3.5 percent higher to 922 pounds a tonne at 1440 GMT.

- - - -

> Strike starts at Phelps Chile copper mine [nN05325009]

SANTIAGO, Chile - Union workers at the El Abra copper mine in Chile, a unit of the U.S.-based Phelps Dodge Corp. (/PD.N), began a strike early Friday after rejecting the company's final contract offer, the company said.

Two unions at the mine, which produces 230,000 tonnes of copper a year, represent about 85 percent of the staff working in production-related jobs.

- - - -

GRAINS/OILSEEDS/LIVESTOCK > Ukraine sees record 2004 clean grain crop [nL0515361]

KIEV - Ukraine's 2004 grain crop is likely to reach a record 42.5 million tonnes clean weight compared with 20.2 million in 2003, Agriculture Minister Viktor Slauta said on Friday.

- - - -

> Netherlands, Germany, Belgium await dioxin tests [nL05425949]

AMSTERDAM - The Netherlands, Germany and Belgium are awaiting results of tests on whether animals and meat have been contaminated with cancer-causing dioxin after discovering it in potato feed, authorities said on Friday.

A total of 162 Dutch cattle, pig, sheep and goat farms, eight farms in Belgium and three in Germany have been shut as a precaution after officials discovered earlier this week they all bought a potato feed product that was contaminated with dioxin.

- - - -

METALS > UPDATE 1-Vedanta to consider developing Konkola De [nL05534045]

LIVINGSTONE, Zambia - London-listed Vedanta Resources Plc on Friday finalised a deal with Zambia to pay $48.2 million for a majority stake in Konkola Copper Mines, and said it would consider developing the Konkola Deep Mine.

- - - -

> Gold to stay a small player in cenbank reserves [nL05216878]

LONDON - Gold has put in an impressive performance over the past three years, with prices up some 65 percent, but it looks set to stay a small-bit player in central bank reserves.

Officials from the Swiss and Austrian national banks said on Friday at a two-day conference in London that gold had played a role in the past, but its lack of liquidity and historically low returns were its main downfalls.

- - - -

SOFT COMMODITIES > Wet weekend for Brazil coffee farms to aid new cro [nN05OFWEAT]

RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil - A new cold front this weekend will bring widespread rain to farms in Brazil's main southeast coffee belt, aiding development of coffee buds after flowering, meteorologists Somar said on Friday.

- - - -

> Supermarket price war hits German coffee trading [nL05550892]

HAMBURG - A sudden round of retail coffee price cutting this week has put German roasters under immense cost pressure compelling them to turn to cheaper coffee origins, traders said on Friday.

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05 Nov 2004 13:45

05.11.2004 13:20:16 Silver fixed steadier, gold pauses at $430.00/oz

* Silver fixed at 736.00 cents an ounce on Friday, compared with previous fix at 725.50 cents. Spot market quoted at $7.36/7.39 from $7.39/7.42 in New York. * Silver forward rates on Reuters page indicated at 1.907, 1.855, 1.858 and 1.710 for one, three, six and 12 months respectively. * Gold at $430.00/430.75, up from $428.95/429.70 last quoted in New York. Supported by weak dollar close to 8-1/2-month lows. Prices under yesterday's 16-year high of $432.95, ahead of U.S. employment data at 1330 GMT. * Platinum indicated at $840/845, down from $845.50/850.00 last quoted in New York. * Palladium quoted at $211.00/216.00, little changed from $211.00/215.00.

05 Nov 2004 09:22

05.11.2004 08:16:00 Tokyo gold gains as dollar slumps, eyes on US data

TOKYO, Nov 5 (Reuters) - Tokyo gold futures edged up to a
1-½ week high on Friday as the dollar's fall near a record low
against the euro encouraged solid short-covering, overwhelming
declines in oil prices, traders said.

The bullish trend in dollar-based spot precious metals prices also provided overall support to metals prices on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM), but the market was careful about bidding too heavily ahead of U.S. jobs data later in the day.

"Sentiment is bullish. People who had cut their positions before the U.S. presidential election were buying back on views that the dollar would stay weak," said Kaname Gokon, research section manager at Okato Shoji Co. Ltd.

"We've seen a big slide in oil prices, which could be making traders nervous about buying gold too heavily, but for now the market is eager to cover positions."

The benchmark October TOCOM gold contract closed 1 yen higher at 1,464 yen per gram. The key futures contract climbed as high as 1,471 yen -- the highest since Oct. 26.

Other contracts closed 2 to 4 yen higher.

Traders said further strength in spot bullion could attract more bids into TOCOM gold.

At 0651 GMT, spot gold was quoted at $429.30/$430.00 an ounce compared with $428.95/9.70 in New York on Thursday.

On Thursday, gold bullion hit a 16-year high, reaching $432.95 an ounce.

TOCOM gold has also been supported by Japanese retail investors, who have been diversifying their assets into gold ahead of the end of a government guarantee on bank deposits, the so-called "payoff", next year, traders said.

Gold gained safe-haven attraction as the dollar was put under pressure following the re-election of President George W. Bush on worries over widening current account and budget deficits in the United States, traders said.

The dollar nudged towards a record low against the euro and slumped against the Japanese currency at around 106 yen .

The euro was quoted at $1.2881/85 , which was near the record high of $1.2927 marked in February.

Both precious metals and currency markets are focusing on economic indicators for clues about the health of the U.S. economy, with key employment data for October due at 1330 GMT.

A Reuters poll showed U.S. non-farm payrolls rose by 169,000, compared with an increase of 96,000 in September.

The U.S. light crude oil contract for December delivery fell well-below the closely watched level of $50 a barrel, although that failed to put pressure on gold.

Gold had received support from bullish oil prices as the yellow metal was bought as a hedge instrument against inflation.

October TOCOM platinum futures finished up 10 yen per gram at 2,794 yen. The October contract climbed as high as 2,828 yen but met strong profit-taking pressure.

Other contracts closed up 10 to 37 yen.

Spot dollar-based platinum stood at $839/$844 compared with $845/$850 in New York on Wednesday.

Below are closing prices for TOCOM's most active precious metals contracts, with the day's turnover for each metal.

Closing prices are in yen per gram except for silver, which is in yen per 10 grams:

For open interest details please click

Closing price Turnover (lots)
GOLD 1,464 (up 1) 55,568
SILVER 248.7 (up 3.2) 4,337
PLATINUM 2,794 (up 10) 48,382
PALLADIUM 735 (up 340

04 Nov 2004 17:28

04.11.2004 17:26:55 NY gold rises to approach 16-year peak as dollar drops

NEW YORK, Nov 4 (Reuters) - COMEX gold futures rose sharply Thursday morning as a plunging dollar after the U.S. presidential election sparked fund buying and renewed global interest in the safe-haven metal.

At 11:21 a.m. EST (1621 GMT), December gold on the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division was up $6.80 at $432.20 an ounce after backtracking from a peak of $434 which marked its loftiest since April when gold hit a 16-year high of $436.50.

The morning's peak represented gold's highest price since July 1988, according to Reuters charts.

"There's fund buying kicking in here with the weaker dollar," James Quinn, AG Edwards & Sons commodity commentator, said.

Gold, often seen as a safeguard in financial markets in turbulent times, rose as traders sold the dollar on worries over the country's widening current account deficit following the re-election of President George W. Bush.

A weak dollar tends to make gold more affordable for non-U.S. buyers.

The dollar came within a hair of a record low against the euro. Midmorning in New York, the euro rose to $1.2871 from about $1.2717 on Wednesday afternoon.

"Fundamentally, the euro was strong under the Bush administration and the dollar was weak, and should still be," said one bullion trader.

Traders said the market now focused on Friday's monthly U.S. employment report as they tracked moves in the dollar and crude oil.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls for October due Friday are expected to show an increase of 169,000 jobs.

Oil inched up 2 cents to $50.90 a barrel.

Spot gold raced to a 16-year peak at $432.75 an ounce before backing off to $430.05/0.80 versus $425.50/6.25 late Wednesday in New York. The afternoon fix in London was $430.50.

December silver jumped 28.2 cents to $7.44 an ounce, within a $7.15 to $7.495 range, but below from the Oct. 25 high of $7.53. Spot silver touched $7.39/42, up from $7.14/17 previously. The London fix was $7.255.

NYMEX January platinum climbed $21.70 to $850 an ounce. Spot platinum traded at $845.00/850.00.

December palladium rose $5.50 to $216 an ounce. Spot palladium hit $211.00/215.00.

© Reuters 2004

04 Nov 2004 17:14

04.11.2004 17:00:47 Commodities News Summary

TOP NEWS
> Gold clears $430 hurdle, highest since Aug 1988 [nL041659]

LONDON - Gold bullion prices broke higher on Thursday in Europe, rising to levels last seen in August 1988 on investment fund buying as a sickly post-election dollar fell to 8-1/2 month lows, traders said.

They said the market also benefited from technical buy signals, with the clearance of stubborn resistance at $430.00 kick-starting another upward move.

- - - -

> NY cocoa rises 5 pct on Ivory Coast fighting [nN04257205]

NEW YORK - U.S. cocoa futures rose five percent Thursday morning, with the front-month contract hitting a seven-week high on renewed fighting in the world's top cocoa grower Ivory Coast, traders said.

At 8:29 a.m. EST (1329 GMT), most-active December cocoa was up 5 percent at $1,534 a tonne on the New York Board of Trade, dealing from $1,520 to $1,538 which marked the highest since Sept. 22.

- - - -

> Bush win seen leading to more U.S. trade pacts [nN03187512]

WASHINGTON - President George W. Bush is expected to pursue an aggressive agenda of new trade agreements during his second term, even if he reshuffles his trade team, U.S. industry officials said on Wednesday.

Bush's re-election will allow the United States to push forward on world trade talks and a long list of other trade deals without significant delay, the officials said.

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GRAINS/OILSEEDS/LIVESTOCK > Egypt's GASC buys 180,000T U.S., Argentine wheat [nL04704911]

CAIRO - Egypt's main official wheat buyer on Thursday bought 120,000 tonnes of U.S. soft white wheat and 60,000 tonnes of Argentine wheat for December 16-31 shipment.

Mahmoud Abdel-Hamid, vice-chairman of the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), said he paid $142.98/tonne FOB for 120,000 tonnes of U.S. soft white wheat from United Harvest and Louis Dreyfus, for shipment from the U.S. West coast.

- - - -

> China drought withers crops, energy, tourism [nPEK213150]

BEIJING - A drought in southern China has withered crops, emptied reservoirs, cut power supplies and is threatening tourism, local officials said on Thursday.

In the hardest-hit region of Guangxi, where some officials have labelled the drought the worst in 50 years, 1,100 reservoirs have gone dry and hydropower generation cut dramatically.

- - - -

> Dutch dioxin scare extends into Germany, Belgium [nL0411354]

AMSTERDAM - The Dutch farm ministry sealed off more livestock farms on Thursday after discovering cancer-causing dioxin in animal feed that had also been exported to Germany and Belgium, authorities said.

A total of 162 Dutch cattle, pig, sheep and goat farms, eight farms in Belgium and three in Germany had bought a potato feed product that was contaminated with dioxin.

- - - -

METALS
> Alcan profit rises to beat estimates [nN04688725]

MONTREAL - Third-quarter profit rose at Alcan Inc. on higher aluminum prices and shipments that helped it beat soaring energy costs, the company said on Thursday, as it outstripped analysts' estimates.

Alcan is the world's second-largest primary aluminum maker after Alcoa Inc.

- - - -

SOFT COMMODITIES > Farmers' strike ends in Ivory Coast, deal [nL0479772]

ABIDJAN - Unions representing Ivory Coast's striking cocoa farmers said on Thursday they had ended their industrial action after agreeing a deal on funding for cocoa cooperatives in the world's top grower.

- - - -

> Tate & Lyle to boost low-carb sweetener output [nL04527837]

LONDON - British sugar and sweetener maker Tate & Lyle (/TATE.L) met forecasts with a 9.2 percent rise in half-year pretax profit before exceptionals and said it would build a second sucralose plant to meet strong demand for the new sweetener.

The company, which makes a range of branded sugars and syrups, soft drink sweeteners and industrial starches, said it had seen exceptional growth in sucralose as obesity concerns boost demand for sweeteners in low-carbohydrate food and drinks.

- - - -

04 Nov 2004 17:12

04.11.2004 16:49:35 Gold überwindet 430 Dollar - Höchster Stand seit August 1988

London, 04. Nov (Reuters) - Gold ist am Donnerstag im Gefolge eines schwachen Dollar über 430 Dollar je Feinunze auf den höchsten Stand seit mehr als 16 Jahren gestiegen. Händler sprachen von Käufen durch Fonds.

Gegen Handelsschluss in Europa notierte Gold bei 430,55/431,30 Dollar nach 424,45/425,20 Dollar am Vorabend. Das Tageshoch lag bei 432,95 Dollar, dem höchsten Wert seit August 1988. Das Nachmittagsfixing in London erfolgte bei 430,50 Dollar nach 426,30 Dollar am Vormittag und 423,50 Dollar am Mittwochnachmittag.

Motor für den Höhenflug des gelben Metalls war einmal mehr der schwache Dollar. Ein schwacher Dollar macht das in der US-Devise angeschriebene Gold für Anleger aus anderen Währungsräumen attraktiver. Nach der Wiederwahl von US-Präsident George W. Bush setzten die Devisenmärkte auf eine Fortsetzung der bisherigen amerikanischen Politik, was zu einer weiteren Abschwächung der US-Währung führen dürfte. Für viele Investoren rückten nun wieder die strukturellen Probleme der USA wie die Zwillingsdefizite im Staatshaushalt und der Leistungsbilanz in den Vordergrund. Darüber hinaus verdichteten sich die Anzeichen, dass die amerikanische Wirtschaft im zweiten Halbjahr und 2005 an Dynamik verlieren dürfte.

"Wenn es Druck auf den Dollar nach unten und beim Öl nach oben gibt, dann steigt Gold", sagte Ross Norman von TheBullionDesk.com.

Dazu komme, dass der Fall der 430-Dollar-Marke auch technisch ein Kaufsignal gewesen sei. Der nächste Widerstand wird nun im Bereich 435/437 Dollar geortet, einem Niveau, das zuletzt Mitte 1988 gesehen wurde. Dann sei allerdings auch mit Gewinnmitnahmen zu rechnen, hiess es. Danach sei der Weg dann frei bis 450 Dollar, hiess es.

Eine Schweizer Grossbank gab den Gold-Kilopreis mit 16.303/16.553 (Vorabend 16.192/16.442) sfr an.

par/ish

04 Nov 2004 13:26

04.11.2004 13:14:39 Silver fixed higher, gold firm on weak dollar

* Silver firms to fix at 725.50 cents an ounce on Thursday compared with previous fix at 704.50 cents. Spot market quoted at $7.25/7.28 from $7.14/7.17 in New York. * Silver forward rates on Reuters page indicated at 1.905, 1.853, 1.858 and 1.705 for one, three, six and 12 months respectively. * Gold advances to $427.00/427.75, well up from $425.50/426.25 last quoted in New York. Driven higher by weak dollar, which near $1.2870 against euro , around 8-1/2-month lows. * Platinum indicated at $839/843, up from $826.50/831.50 last quoted in New York. * Palladium quoted at $210.00/214.00, compared with $206.50/212.50.

04 Nov 2004 09:19

04.11.2004 09:11:27 Tokyo gold edges up; Bush re-election, oil support

TOKYO, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Tokyo gold futures posted gains on Thursday, drawing fresh bids after the re-election of U.S. President George W. Bush, with crude oil's climb above $50 per barrel also providing support.

Platinum futures on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) rose more than 1 percent, the strongest performer among TOCOM precious metals, on short-covering following a series of liquidations over the past week, traders said.

But the market was wary about bidding the white precious metal too heavily ahead of a supply and demand forecast by precious metals refiner Johnson Matthey (/JMAT.L) due later in the month, traders said.

Firmness in spot gold and platinum prices also supported TOCOM prices as the dollar continued to struggle near recent lows after Bush was re-elected for a second term.

"With Bush being re-elected, geopolitical concerns stay and the lingering twin deficit problem is expected to undermine the dollar, which would support gold," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, associate director at Nihon Unicom Corp.

The October TOCOM gold contract closed 4 yen higher at 1,463 yen per gram from Tuesday's close of 1,459 yen. The Tokyo market was closed for a public holiday on Wednesday.

The key contract moved in a range of 1,459 to 1,465 yen. Other contracts finished 1 to 6 yen higher.

At 0718 GMT, spot gold was quoted at $426.65/7.15 an ounce from $425.50/6.25 in New York on Wednesday.

With the election behind it, the market was shifting its focus to economic indicators for clues about the health of the U.S. economy, particularly jobs data due on Friday, and to the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next week.

"Ahead of the jobs data and FOMC, it's tough to boost long positions too heavily," Kikukawa said.

A Reuters poll showed U.S. non-farm payrolls rising 169,000 in October, compared with a rise of 96,000 in September.

Analysts said any reading above 250,000 or below 100,000 would be a surprise for the market.

The dollar continued to struggle against major currencies.
The greenback was at $1.2833/36 against the euro, not
far from the 8-½ month low of $1.2842 hit in late October.

The dollar was at 106.24/27 yen , slightly up from late New York levels but under downward pressure.

The key U.S. light crude oil contract for December delivery was fetching $50.50 a barrel.

TOCOM platinum futures met solid short-covering after dropping to a three-month low on Tuesday, but the market was not convinced about the outlook for the white metal.

The trend in the global economy has stayed strong, but recently there have been some signals indicating the economy might not be as strong as earlier expected, undermining sentiment for platinum, traders said.

October TOCOM platinum futures finished up 28 yen per gram at 2,784 yen. Other contracts closed up 23 to 37 yen.

Spot dollar-based platinum stood at $834/$839 compared with $826.50/$831.50 in New York on Wednesday.

Below are closing prices for TOCOM's most active precious metals contracts, with the day's turnover for each metal.

Closing prices are in yen per gram except for silver, which is in yen per 10 grams:

For open interest details please click

Closing price Turnover (lots)
GOLD 1,463 (up 4) 43,018
SILVER 245.5 (down 0.8) 5,006
PLATINUM 2,784 (up 28) 39,491
PALLADIUM 727 (down 4) 874

04 Nov 2004 08:51

04.11.2004 06:27:55 UPDATE 1-Gold extends gains in Asia, U.S. data eyed

(Updates to afternoon)

SINGAPORE, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Gold rose in Asia on Thursday, helped by volatile oil prices and some buying in Japan, but activity was slow as dealers awaited the release of key U.S. economic data ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting next week.

Spot gold was at $427.10/427.85 an ounce by 0454 GMT, compared with $425.50/426.25 in New York, where it rose about $5 on Wednesday because of the dollar's fall.

The dollar traded near recent lows after the U.S. presidential election was resolved with President George W. Bush re-elected for a second term. The euro was little changed from New York's level at $1.2821.

The market is awaiting the monthly U.S. employment report on Friday, while watching the dollar and oil, dealers said.Crude oil retreated after rising above $51 on Wednesday but fears of inflation lingered.

The benchmark October gold contract was up two yen per gram at 1,461 yen, after rising to 1,465, as Tokyo gold futures reopened after a market holiday.

Yukuji Sonoda, a precious metals analyst at Daiichi Commodities in Tokyo, said dollar-priced gold would gain if Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) acted against market expectation that it would increase interest rates. "Gold price will depend on the FOMC policy," said Sonoda.

Fed is widely expected to raise short-term interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting on Nov. 10.

A rise in U.S. interest rates usually makes dollar-based assets more attractive. But a firmer dollar makes dollar-priced gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, reducing its safe-haven appeal.

Dealers said gold would find support at around $418 an ounce but the market lacked fresh impetus to regain $430 because of limited demand from jewellery manufacturers.

Platinum was at $832/837 an ounce, up from $826.50/831.50 an ounce last quoted in New York. Sister metal palladium was at $210/215 an ounce, compared with $206.50/212.50.

Silver was at $7.20/7.22 an ounce, versus $7.14/7.17 in New York.

04 Nov 2004 08:52

04.11.2004 07:11:38 Gold adds $1 in early Europe, focus on currency

* Gold opened at $426.75/427.50 in Europe by 0601 GMT on Thursday, up from $425.50/426.25 last quoted in New York, aided by volatile oil prices. Dealers awaited the release of key U.S. economic data ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting next week.

* The euro was little changed from New York's level at $1.2818.

* The market is awaiting the monthly U.S. employment report on Friday, while watching the dollar and oil. Crude oil retreated after rising above $51 on Wednesday but fears of inflation lingered.

* Platinum was at $832/837 an ounce, up from $826.50/831.50 an ounce last quoted in New York.

* Sister metal palladium was at $210/215 an ounce, compared with $206.50/212.50.

* Silver was at $7.19/7.21 an ounce, versus $7.14/7.17 in New York.

03 Nov 2004 21:11

03.11.2004 21:02:25 NY gold ends up on soft dollar before Bush win

NEW YORK, Nov 3 (Reuters) - Gold futures in New York ended higher and off two-week lows on Wednesday, boosted by the dollar's fall before Democratic Senator John Kerry conceded the closely contested U.S. election to President George W. Bush.

December gold finished $4.60 firmer at $425.40 an ounce at the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division, after trading from $419.40 to $426.40. Estimated volume was 46,000 contracts.

"Gold was responding to the weakness in the dollar and the fact that (gold) had a big drop the day before," said David Rinehimer, head of commodities research at Citigroup Global Markets. "There didn't seem to be much reaction to the news of the concession by Kerry."

December gold futures fell $7.40 on Tuesday before the election, with the shakeout dragging down COMEX open interest sharply. Outstanding positions fell 14,354 contracts to 313,532 contracts as of Nov. 2.

Senator Kerry conceded defeat Wednesday afternoon and said he hoped America could begin a healing process after a bitter election campaign.

Gold traders likely will now turn their attention to Friday's monthly U.S. employment report while they continue to track moves in the dollar and oil, since the election is out of the way, analysts said.

"I'd be cautious about being long here, because if this employment report is better-than-expected and U.S. rates start going up, I think the dollar can come back, and there might be some downside in the energy market," Rinehimer said.

A soft dollar boosts dollar-denominated gold by making it cheaper for non-U.S. traders. Bullion is also regarded as a haven in times of economic and political uncertainty.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls for October due on Friday are expected to show an increase of 169,000 jobs.

Midafternoon in New York, the euro rose to $1.2817 .

Refco analyst Tom Boustead pegged major resistance in December gold futures at around $432, with support down at Tuesday's low of $418.

The December gold contract hit a 15-year high in April at $436.50 on heavy speculative buying in precious metals.

Oil, meanwhile, shot up $1.28 to $49.85 a barrel at midafternoon.

Spot gold last fetched $425.50/6.25 an ounce, compared with $420.00/420.75 on Tuesday in New York. The London afternoon fix was at $423.50.

December silver rose 13.8 cents to $7.158 an ounce, trading from $6.985 to $7.19. Spot silver hit $7.14/17, up from $6.97/7.00 previously. The fix was at $7.045.

January platinum gained $1.70 to $828.30 an ounce. Spot platinum touched $826.50/831.50.

Thinly traded December palladium was unchanged at $210.50 an ounce. Spot palladium was at $206.50/212.50.

© Reuters 2004

03 Nov 2004 18:03

03.11.2004 17:38:04 Commodities News Summary

TOP NEWS
Europe gold closes up, focus on US poll result [nL03159993]

* Spot gold firms to end at $423.45/424.20 per troy ounce by 1615 GMT, compared with $420.00/420.75 last quoted on Tuesday in New York, where the market dropped as low as $416.75, in part due to a firmer dollar.

* Bullion see-saws alongside euro/dollar with major focus on U.S. election result. Euro last at $1.2789 against the dollar.

- - - -

CBOT corn fractionally mixed, focus on soy moves [nN03181737]

CHICAGO - Chicago Board of Trade corn futures were fractionally mixed early on Wednesday with traders taking their cue from the volatile moves in the soy market, pit sources said.

At 10:20 a.m. CST (1620 GMT), CBOT corn futures were 1/4 cent per bushel lower to 1/2 higher, with December down 1/4 at $1.99-1/2 per bushel.

- - - -

GRAINS/OILSEEDS/LIVESTOCK > Better harvest weather soon for US Midwest corn an [nN03170055]

CHICAGO - Better weather for harvesting the U.S. corn and soy crops is on the way, a private forecaster said Wednesday.

- - - -

> Jordan postpones tender to buy 100,000 T barley [nL0399314]

HAMBURG - Jordan's state grains buyer has postponed a tender for the purchase of 100,000 tonnes of optional-origin feed barley which was due to close on Wednesday, European traders said.

- - - -

> UPDATE 1-Tunisia buys 150,000 tonnes soft wheat in [nL03641586]

HAMBURG - Tunisia's state-run Office des Cereales bought 150,000 tonnes of soft wheat in a tender for at least 50,000 tonnes that closed on Wednesday, traders said.

- - - -

> UPDATE 1-Dutch shut 140 farms over dioxin scare [nL03113149]

AMSTERDAM - The Dutch agriculture ministry on Wednesday temporarily shut 140 cattle, pig, sheep and goat farms after cancer-causing dioxin was discovered in milk produced by two of them, the ministry said.

- - - -

> UPDATE 1-Ukraine ups 2004 grain crop forecast to 4 [nL03131737]

KIEV - Ukraine's government increased on Wednesday its 2004 grain crop forecast to 45 million tonnes from the previous estimate at 40-44 million.

- - - -

> Ireland recalls imported feed over bone traces [nL03706404]

DUBLIN - Hundreds of tonnes of cattle feed imported by Ireland from Germany have been recalled after samples were found to contain bone fragments, the Irish agriculture ministry said on Wednesday.

- - - -

METALS
> Alcoa resumes alumina shipments from Jamaica [nN03167238]

NEW YORK - Alcoa Inc. (/AA.N), the world's biggest aluminum producer, resumed shipping alumina this past weekend from its Jamaican refinery and port, which were damaged by Hurricane Ivan, a company spokesman said on Wednesday.

- - - -

> China spot copper supply increases on imports [nHKG247836]

HONG KONG - Availability of spot copper has increased in Shanghai in the past two days after a cargo for about 20,000 tonnes of imported copper was released to the market, traders said on Wednesday.

- - - -

> UPDATE 3-Gold Fields lambasts Harmony's bid as poo [nL03092651]

JOHANNESBURG - South Africa's Gold Fields Ltd. (/GFIJ.J) went on the offensive against Harmony Gold's (/HARJ.J) $7.46 billion hostile takeover bid on Wednesday, saying its financially strapped rival faced a cash crunch.

- - - -

> Workers at Alcan's Sebree plant approve contract [nN03165135]

NEW YORK - A majority of unionized workers at Alcan Inc.'s (/AL.TO) aluminum smelter in Sebree, Kentucky, ratified a new five-year labor agreement, a United Steelworkers of America official said Wednesday.

- - - -

> Norilsk Nickel 2004 gold output to slip to 34-35 T [nL03293011]

MOSCOW - Gold output at Russian metals giant Norilsk Nickel (/GMKN.RTS) will slip to about 34 tonnes in 2004 from 35.5 tonnes in 2003 due to bad weather and a mine closure, a company official said on Wednesday.

- - - -

SOFT COMMODITIES > UPDATE 1-Ivory Coast cocoa exporters shut as strik [nL03615364]

ABIDJAN - Warehouses of leading cocoa exporters in Ivory Coast ports were closed on Wednesday in anticipation of further strike action by cocoa farmers who are demanding a higher, guaranteed price for their beans.

- - - -

> UPDATE 1-World 04/05 coffee output at 117.9 mln ba [nL03167833]

LONDON - Global coffee production in 2004/05 may increase to 117.9 million 60-kg bags from 107.3 million the previous year, rebounding above consumption thanks to higher Brazilian output, German analyst F.O. Licht said on Wednesday.

- - - -

> Brazil Coffee--Smaller new crop, higher prices see [nNO466140]

RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil - Brazilian coffee prices should shrug off short-term swings in world futures markets and pursue a firmer trend due to a projected smaller crop next year, traders said Wednesday.

- - - -

> Cuban sugar minister confirms late mill start-up [nN03173902]

HAVANA - Cuban Sugar Minister Ulises Rosales del Toro said mills would open late for the coming harvest, in the latest indication that drought damaged the crop, the official news agency Prensa Latina reported on Wednesday.

- - - -

© Reuters 2004

03 Nov 2004 16:42

03.11.2004 16:34:36 NY gold up on lower dollar as US election unclear

NEW YORK, Nov 3 (Reuters) - Gold futures climbed from two-week lows on Wednesday morning, as investors turned to the safe-haven metal amid a broad retreat by the dollar due to the closely contested U.S. presidential election.

December gold at the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division was up $3.90 at $427.70 an ounce at 10:16 a.m. EST (1516 GMT), trading in a range of $419.40 to $426.40.

President George W. Bush's campaign declared victory on Wednesday over Sen. John Kerry and claimed a second term in the White House, but Kerry refused to concede until all ballots were counted in the important undecided state of Ohio.

"We are getting some short-covering coming in here," said Refco metals analyst Tom Boustead, who added that a weaker dollar versus the euro and firmer crude oil attracted buyers to the yellow metal.

"I would have thought that a Bush victory would have been a bit negative for gold, but what I think happened was a lot of selling just went out of the market yesterday and we're rebounding from that."

The dollar fell against the euro and other major currencies as markets awaited an election verdict. The euro was at $1.2791, up about 0.3 percent on the day.

A weaker dollar boosts dollar-denominated gold by making it cheaper for non-U.S. traders. Bullion is also regarded as a haven in times of economic and political uncertainty.

"The boys hopped on the rally up with the euro more than anything else," one COMEX gold broker said. "The floor kept wanting to buy it, and silver also popped higher.

"I think there was a giant long spec position that got out of the market in front of the election, because it looked like it was going to be decisive, and then it surprised the hell out of everybody that it wasn't," the broker added.

While the election result was hanging in the balance, the gold market also likely would be awaiting direction from the closely watched monthly U.S. employment report due on Friday.

Refco's Boustead pinpointed major resistance in December gold futures at $432 an ounce and support at Tuesday's low of $418.

The December gold contract hit a 15-year high in April at $436.50 on heavy speculative buying in precious metals.

Oil, meanwhile, held firm but still was below $50 a barrel, with U.S. crude up 23 cents at $49.85 a barrel at midmorning.

Spot gold changed hands at $423.15/423.90, compared with $420.00/420.75 on Tuesday in New York, where bullion had fallen to $416.75 as traders unloaded long positions in the dollar.

Spot gold fixed at $423.50 in the London afternoon.

December silver rose 11.0 cents to $7.13 an ounce, trading from $6.985 to $7.19. Spot silver fetched $7.09/12, up from $6.97/7.00 previously. The fix was at $7.045.

January platinum gained $3.90 to $830.50 an ounce. Spot platinum hit $828.00/833.00.

Thinly traded December palladium rose 50 cents to $211 an ounce. Spot palladium fetched $208.00/214.00.

© Reuters 2004

03 Nov 2004 16:15

03.11.2004 16:07:32 UPDATE 6-Gold higher in Europe as U.S. poll unfolds

(Releads, updates prices, commentary)

By Veronica Brown

LONDON, Nov 3 (Reuters) - Gold forged higher in Europe on Wednesday, with investors buying into the safe-haven metal on the back of a rising euro as dealers awaited a clear result from the U.S. presidential election.

President George W. Bush's campaign declared victory over Democratic Senator John Kerry and claimed re-election to a second term in the White House on Wednesday, but Kerry refused to concede until all ballots were counted in Ohio.

Spot gold moved up to $424.45/425.20 per troy ounce by 1440 GMT after spiking up to $425.05 earlier.

That compared with $420.00/420.75 last quoted on Tuesday in New York, where bullion had fallen to $416.75 at one stage.

After holding steady in Asian trade, the market was buoyed in Europe by currency gyrations on uncertainty over the U.S. presidential result, dealers said.

"Gold found good buying interest on the back of a firmer euro right after U.S. markets opened and at the moment it is running into resistance around $425," a European trader said.

"A very close vote (in the U.S. poll)...continues to lend support to gold," he added.

Dealers put key support at $418 and resistance at $428.

The euro firmed against the dollar as markets awaited a verdict on the presidental race, but U.S. stocks soared at Wednesday's opening as investors bet that Bush would be declared the presidential winner.

A weaker U.S. currency makes dollar-priced gold cheaper for non-U.S. investors, while bullion is also regarded as a haven in times of economic and political uncertainty.

The euro was at $1.2794 , versus $1.2725 in late U.S. trade.

DOLLAR SEEN UNDER PRESSURE
Dealers said fundamentals such as the record U.S. current account deficit were likely to prevail and keep pressure on the dollar whoever won the U.S. election.

Gold hit a one-week high at $430.15 on Monday, just 35 cents short of January's 15-year peak of $430.50, driven by a weaker dollar and strong crude oil prices that stoked fears of inflation.

Barclays Capital said the euro would probably resume its upward path, supporting gold.

"Should a clear winner emerge soon, our FX strategists believe the dollar is likely to rally further in the next couple of days. However, thereafter, they are looking for renewed EUR/USD strength," Barclays said in a daily report.

Dealers were also looking ahead to U.S. nonfarm payrolls data for October on Friday, which are expected to show an increase of 169,000 new jobs.

In other metals, platinum rose to $828.00/832.00, versus $823.50/828.50 quoted in New York late on Tuesday.

Palladium was flat at $208.00/214.00.

Silver rose slightly in line with gold to $7.11/7.14, versus $6.97/7.00 in New York.

03 Nov 2004 13:28

03.11.2004 12:53:31 UPDATE 5-Gold higher in Europe as U.S. poll unfolds

(Updates prices, adds European commentary, details)

By Veronica Brown

LONDON, Nov 3 (Reuters) - Gold probed higher in Europe on Wednesday as dealers scrutinised the currency market ahead of a result from the closely contested U.S. presidential election.

Spot gold stood at $422.60/423.30 per troy ounce by 1127 GMT, compared with $420.00/420.75 last quoted on Tuesday in New York, where bullion had fallen to $416.75, in part due to a firmer dollar as traders unloaded long positions.

The metal was fixed in London at $422.20.

"People are still waiting to see what happens with the election and there could still be a few days of arguing yet," Simon Weeks, precious metals director at ScotiaMocatta, said.

"There's still a lot of uncertainty out there and I think on that basis gold is going to find support on dips," he added.

Dealers put key support at $418 and resistance at $428.

President George W. Bush's campaign declared victory over Democratic Senator John Kerry and claimed re-election to a second term in the White House on Wednesday, but Kerry refused to concede until all ballots were counted in Ohio.

The dollar firmed against the euro after White House chief of staff Andy Card said he was convinced President Bush won re-election in Tuesday's vote.

A stronger U.S. currency makes dollar-priced gold more expensive for non-U.S. investors, but bullion is also regarded as a haven in times of economic and political uncertainty.

The euro was at $1.2717 , versus $1.2725 in late U.S. trade.

DOLLAR SEEN UNDER PRESSURE
Dealers said fundamentals such as the record U.S. current account deficit were likely to prevail and keep pressure on the dollar whoever won the U.S. election.

Gold hit a one-week high at $430.15 on Monday, just 35 cents short of January's 15-year peak of $430.50, driven by a weaker dollar and strong crude oil prices that stoked fears of inflation.

Alexander Zumpfe of Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein said in a daily report that the U.S. poll would be central to trading over the rest of the day and prices would be volatile.

"Our FX strategists believe that once confirmation of a Bush victory hits the wires this will lead to a relief rally for the dollar," he said.

"However, since nearly everything is possible on these kinds of day, a higher gold price looks also possible in case the dollar loses ground," he added.

Dealers were also looking ahead to U.S. nonfarm payrolls data for October on Friday, which are expected to show an increase of 169,000 new jobs.

In other metals, platinum was at $824.00/828.00, versus $823.50/828.50 quoted in New York late on Tuesday.

Palladium was flat at $208.00/214.00.

Silver rose slightly in line with gold to $7.00/7.03, versus $6.97/7.00 in New York.

03 Nov 2004 10:34

03.11.2004 10:12:59 UPDATE 4-Gold nudges higher in Europe as US poll unfolds

(Adds early European comment, changes dateline, byline, )

By Veronica Brown

LONDON, Nov 3 (Reuters) - Gold edged higher in Europe on Wednesday morning with dealers scrutinising the currency market ahead of a result from the closely contested U.S. presidential election.

Spot gold stood at $421.10/421.80 per troy ounce by 0839 GMT, compared with $420.00/420.75 last quoted on Tuesday in New York, where it had fallen to $416.75, in part due to a firmer dollar as traders adjusted long positions.

"Everybody is just waiting for the election to be over -- we don't think that the result will have a great impact on the dollar, or on precious metals," MKS Finance analyst Frederic Panizzutti said.

Dealers pegged key support at $418 an ounce and resistance at $428 an ounce.

President George W. Bush moved close to victory over Democratic Senator John Kerry and re-election to a second term in the White House, according to television network projections, but questions over provisional ballots in Ohio delayed a final verdict.

"It appears that a clear victory for Bush is seen as a short term bullish for the dollar, while a repeat of the 2000 recount debacle could weigh on the dollar," said Martin Mayne, associate director at N M Rothschild in Sydney.

The dollar trimmed earlier gains against major currencies in early European trade as markets awaited an outcome from the U.S. poll. A stronger U.S. currency makes dollar-priced gold more expensive for non-U.S. investors.

The euro was at $1.2689 , versus $1.2725 in late U.S. trade.

DOLLAR SEEN UNDER PRESSURE
Dealers said that whoever wins the election, fundamentals such as the record U.S. current account deficit were likely to prevail, keeping pressure on the dollar.

Gold hit a one-week high at $430.15 an ounce on Monday, just 35 cents short of January's 15-year peak of $430.50, driven by a weaker dollar and strong crude oil prices that stokes fears of inflation.

Dealers were also looking ahead to U.S. nonfarm payrolls data for October on Friday, which is expected to show an increase of 169,000 new jobs.

Some analysts pegged an upside target at $432 an ounce, a 16-year high, but any price gains may not be sustainable because of falling demand from jewellery manufacturers as well as investors.

In other metals, platinum was at $824.00/828.00, versus $823.50/828.50 quoted in New York late on Tuesday.

Palladium was flat at $208.00/214.00.

Silver rose slightly in line with gold to $7.00/7.03, versus $6.97/7.00 in New York.

02 Nov 2004 21:21

02.11.2004 20:40:56 NY gold, silver end at 2-week low before US vote

NEW YORK, Nov 2 (Reuters) - COMEX gold futures closed at two-week lows on Tuesday, responding to a firmer dollar and higher equities, as the closely contested U.S. presidential election got underway, trade sources said.

Silver, platinum and palladium futures also rode gold's coattails lower.

December gold at the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division settled down $7.40 at $420.80 an ounce, after trading from $428.80 to $418.00, which marked its lowest price since Oct. 19.

Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management, said thin trading conditions this week in precious metals due to doubts about the election result meant few buyers were around, and that allowed prices to work sharply lower.

"It was just the funds getting out," he said. "Everyone knows that the funds are horribly long, and today they said, 'Gee, here we are at $428 and there is an election -- let's sell some.'"

December gold shot to a 15-year high in April at $436.50, but the market in the last few weeks has faltered on attempts to break decisively above resistance around $430 an ounce. However, brokers said prices are underpinned in the short-term by support at $416 and $410.50.

Voters turned out in unusually large numbers to deliver a verdict on President George W. Bush, a Republican, and Democratic Senator John Kerry after a bitter White House race that has stayed too close to call.

Dealers and analysts have said a clear-cut election result or a Kerry win could give the dollar a boost -- which likely would pressure gold -- while a protracted outcome could drag the currency lower.

The dollar rose against the euro as traders priced in a possible brief boost to the currency in the event of a quick polling result. At midafternoon, the euro fell to $1.2682 .

Oil fell below $50 a barrel, adding to a week-long slide that cut more than $5 off record-high prices, as some traders pocketed profits ahead of the election.

A firm dollar typically pressures dollar-denominated gold as it becomes pricier for traders holding foreign currencies. Lower oil weighs on gold as fewer investors turn to it as a hedge against inflation.

Spot gold was last quoted at $420.00/0.75 an ounce, well below Monday's New York close at $426.75/7.50. Tuesday's afternoon London fix was at $424.20.

December silver plummeted 31.0 cents to end at $7.02 an ounce, in a range from $7.33 to $6.92 -- its lowest since Oct. 19. Spot silver sagged to $6.97/7.00, down from $7.32/35 previously. London's fix was at $7.195.

January platinum slid $5.80 to $826.60 an ounce. Spot platinum was lower at $823.50/828.50.

December palladium was down 25 cents at $210.50 an ounce. Spot palladium fetched $208.00/214.00.

© Reuters 2004

02 Nov 2004 18:52

02.11.2004 18:11:38 Commodities News Summary

TOP NEWS
> COMEX gold falls 2 percent early as dollar climbs [nN02411982]

NEW YORK - Gold futures plunged about 2 percent by midmorning on Tuesday, as traders tracked a firmer dollar while the closely contested U.S. presidential election got underway.

- - - -

> Europe gold ends down in thin trade, focus on US p [nL02438822]

* Bullion drops in thin trade with many investors sidelined as U.S. presidential polling day gets under way. Dealers say uncertainty may prop up bullion as a safe haven. Clear, swift result seen as short-term dollar bullish and so gold bearish.

- - - -

GRAINS/OILSEEDS/LIVESTOCK
Oil World sees global soyoil output above usage [nL02656641]

HAMBURG - Global 2004/05 soyoil output is likely to rise to 33.29 million tonnes and so exceed estimated season consumption of 32.96 million tonnes, Hamburg-based newsletter Oil World said on Tuesday.

- - - -

> Dutch farmers agree on GMO crop separation rules [nL02178925]

AMSTERDAM - The main Dutch farming organisations have agreed on rules on how to separate biotech, organic and traditional crops, which could pave the way to growing GMO crops in the Netherlands, they said on Tuesday.

- - - -

> Oil World sees weak soybean prices [nL02579322]

HAMBURG - Global 2004/05 soybean crops are likely to exceed consumption and put downward pressure on prices, Hamburg-based newsletter Oil World said.

- - - -

> Israeli firm tenders to buy feed wheat and barley [nL02152034]

HAMBURG - A private Israeli buyer has issued a tender to purchase 40,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 20,000 tonnes of feed barley, European traders said on Tuesday.

- - - -

> Tunisia seeks to buy at least 50,000 T wheat-offic [nGHA247966]

TUNIS - Tunisia's state-run Office des Cereales said on Tuesday it was tendering to buy at least 50,000 tonnes of soft wheat.

- - - -

> UPDATE 1-Germany offers 561,258 T grain for EU int [nL02555865]

HAMBURG - German farmers offered 561,258 tonnes of grain for European Union intervention subsidies on the first day of the new purchasing season, intervention buying agency BLE said on Tuesday.

- - - -

> Iran's SLAL passes in 50,000 T feed barley tender [nL02677843]

HAMBURG - Iran's state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has rejected all offers in a tender for 50,000 tonnes of feed barley and made no purchase, European traders said on Tuesday.

- - - -

> UPDATE 1-Manila's 05 rice imports seen lower despi [nMN281116]

MANILA - The Philippines, one of Asia's largest rice buyers, is likely to import less in 2005 despite the possible recurrence of the El Nino weather pattern.

- - - -

METALS > Gold mine stocks down on precious metal price slip [nN02731206]

NEW YORK - Stock in gold mining companies fell on Tuesday as the price of the precious metal -- a traditional hedge in times of war and economic uncertainty -- dropped to a two-week low.

- - - -

> Harmony urges Gold Fields CEO to reevaluate bid [nN02731067]

NEW YORK - The chief executive officer of South Africa's Harmony Gold Mining Co. (/HARJ.J) on Tuesday urged the head of takeover target Gold Fields Ltd. (/GFIJ.J) to reevaluate Harmony's unsolicited bid, reiterating that it would find at least $161.7 million (1 billion rand) in savings.

- - - -

> LME contract aimed at U.S. carmakers is winner [nL02153559]

LONDON - An aluminium alloy contract aimed at U.S. automakers but traded on the London Metal Exchange (LME) has > proven a big winner and could point the way to more regional offerings, traders say.

- - - -

> LME issues guide to rules on prompt tightness [nL02462992]

LONDON - The London Metal Exchange (LME) said on Tuesday it had sent members a simplified guide to its procedures for dealing with disorder on the market, especially prompt tightness.

- - - -

> Spain copper mine eyes 130,000 T concentrate/yr [nL02123132]

MADRID - The new owners of a copper mine in southern Spain estimate they can extract 130,000 tonnes of copper concentrate a year fom the unit, which is set to open soon, the director of the firm said on Tuesday.

- - - -

COCOA/COFFEE > UPDATE 1-Ivory Coast exporters closing, strike to [nL02561403]

ABIDJAN - Cocoa exporters in Ivory Coast began closing their doors on Tuesday after union leaders said they should stop working because a farmers strike in the world's top cocoa producer was set to resume.

- - - -

> German 5th factory beet test shows positive trend [nL0238385]

HAMBURG - The fifth test on beet arriving at German sugar refineries this season continued the overall positive trend seen earlier, figures from German industry association WVZ showed on Tuesday.

- - - -

> INTERVIEW-India should permit coffee imports to fu [nBM288514]

NEW DELHI - India should permit coffee imports at low tariffs to improve the health of the ailing industry through increased domestic consumption by offering consumers a better brew, a top trade official said on Tuesday.

- - - -

02 Nov 2004 17:26

02.11.2004 17:25:27 Europe gold ends down in thin trade, focus on US poll

* Bullion drops in thin trade with many investors sidelined as U.S. presidential polling day gets under way. Dealers say uncertainty may prop up bullion as a safe haven. Clear, swift result seen as short-term dollar bullish and so gold bearish.

* Spot gold slides late to end at $421.05/421.80 per troy ounce by 1615 GMT, compared with $426.75/427.50 quoted late in New York on Monday.

* Silver down in line with gold to $7.04/7.07 by 1620 GMT from $7.32/7.35 late in New York on Monday.

* Platinum drops to $824.00/828.00, from $832.00/836.00 last quoted in New York.

Palladium at $208.00/212.00 from $207.00/211.00 previously.

02 Nov 2004 17:27

02.11.2004 16:42:47 NY gold retreats early as dollar gains ground

NEW YORK, Nov 2 (Reuters) - Gold futures fell in light trade on Tuesday morning, as dealers tracked a firm dollar while Americans turned out in large numbers to vote as the tight presidential election drew to a close.

December gold at the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division reached $423.70 an ounce by 10:40 a.m. EST (1540 GMT), off $4.50 on the day, trading between $428.80 and $423.20.

"The market is drifting a little bit here, but I don't think we're going to do much. It's very quiet," said James Quinn, an AG Edwards & Sons commodity commentator, who pegged support at the $423-424 area and resistance up around $430.

"The dollar is a little bit firmer and I think we're going to be dollar-sensitive today," he said.

As the tight presidential race came down to the wire, the final Reuters/Zogby three-day national tracking poll showed President George W. Bush leading his Democrat rival. Sen. John Kerry, by 48-47 percent -- well within the margin of error.

Dealers and analysts have said a clear-cut election result or a Kerry win could give the dollar a boost -- which would likely pressure gold -- while a protracted outcome could drag the currency lower.

The dollar firmed as traders trimmed short positions before the election and crude oil edged lower. The euro slipped below $1.27 .

Oil moved nearer to $50 a barrel, adding to a week-long slide that cut more than $5 off record-high prices, as some traders pocketed profits ahead of the election.

A firm dollar tends to pressure dollar-denominated gold as it gets costlier for traders holding foreign currencies. Lower oil weighs on gold as fewer investors turn to it as a hedge against inflation.

Thebulliondesk.com said in a daily report gold stayed on the defensive as traders paused to see what direction the neck-and-neck U.S. election takes.

"We should see gold in a win/win situation over the uncertainty that may arise," it said. "Gold should retain its uptrend, although a little long liquidation, if there is a clear winner cannot be discounted, creating a temporary setback."

Spot gold changed hands at $423.45/4.20, below Monday's New York close at $426.75/7.50. Tuesday's afternoon London fix was at $424.20.

December silver sank 17.0 cents to a session low at $7.16 an ounce, off from a high at $7.33 earlier. Spot silver fetched $7.12/15, above the previous close at $7.32/35. London's fix was at $7.195.

January platinum fell $5.40 to $827 an ounce. Spot platinum reached $824.00/828.00.

December palladium rose 50 cents to $211.25 an ounce. Spot palladium traded to $208.00/212.00.

© Reuters 2004

HINTERGRUND: US-Wahl entscheidet auch über neuen Höhenflug beim Goldpreis

FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX) - Das bange Warten an den Goldmärkten kurz vor der Wahlentscheidung in den USA gilt nach Einschätzung von Experten nicht in erster Linie der Frage, ob Amtsinhaber George W. Bush oder der Herausforderer John Kerry das Rennen machen wird. "Die enorme Spannung" gelte vielmehr einer möglichen Wiederholung der Patt-Situation von vor vier Jahren und einem neuen Höhenflug beim Goldpreis, sagte Rohstoffexperte Christoph Eibl von Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein.
Eine neuerliche Hängepartie bis zur Entscheidung über den künftigen US-Präsidenten sei "extrem schlecht" für den US-Dollar, sagte Eibl. Die Dollarschwäche ist nach Einschätzung von Experten der "Treibstoff für eine Goldrallye". Erst am 25. Oktober sorgte die Kursschwäche der US-Währung beim Goldpreis für ein Rekordhoch bei 429 Dollar. Am Tag der Wahlentscheidung notierte der Preis für eine Unze in London bei 425,20 Dollar.
DER DOLLAR IST DER SCHLÜSSEL FÜR DEN GOLDPREIS
"Der Dollar ist der Schlüssel für den Goldpreis. Für die weitere Entwicklung hängt alles von der US-Währung ab". sagte Rohstoffexperte Wolfgang Wilke von der Dresdner Bank. An den Rohstoffmärkten ist der Dollar die gängige Währung für den Handel mit dem Edelmetall. Sollte nach der Wahlnacht mit einem weiter fallenden Dollar EURUS.FX1 beim Goldpreis die Marke von 430 Dollar nach oben durchbrochen werden, könnte die Feinunze nach Einschätzung von Wilke bis zum Jahresende auf 450 Dollar klettern.
Ein Wahlsieg des Herausforderers Kerry würde allerdings nach Einschätzung des Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein Experten einen fallenden Goldpreis zur Folge haben. "Dann kann der Preis für die Feinunze durchaus um zehn Dollar sinken", sagte Eibl. Bei einem Wahlsieg des Amtsinhabers Bush würde es dagegen nicht nur politisch wenig Veränderungen geben. "Dann dürfte sich auch der Goldpreis erst einmal seitwärts bewegen".
SORGE VOR DEM US-HAUSHALTSDEFIZIT
Während der Amtszeit von George W. Bush hatte der Goldpreis allerdings eine eindrucksvolle Kursentwicklung hingelegt. Im April 2001 notierte die Feinunze noch bei 257 Dollar. Das aufgeblähte Haushaltsdefizit schürte nach Einschätzung von Experten die Inflationsgefahr in den Vereinigten Staaten. Vor allem Großinvestoren hätten in den vergangenen Jahren zunehmend in Gold investiert.
Außerdem verfolgen die Anleger akribisch jede Äußerung von Vertretern der asiatischen Notenbanken. Alleine in Japan taxieren Experten die Währungsreserven des Landes auf 800 Milliarden Dollar. Im Gegensatz zu europäischen Notenbanken verfügen die asiatischen Zentralbanken nur über sehr geringe Goldreserven.
Rohstoffexperte Carsten Roemheld von Adig Investmentfonds rechnet bei den asiatischen Notenbanken fest mit einem Umschichten von Dollarreserven in Goldbestände. Zusammen mit der Sorge der Anleger über eine weitere Abschwächung der amerikanischen Wirtschaft sorge das "für eine mittelfristig bessere Tendenz beim Goldpreis". Bis zum Jahresende erwartet auch Roemheld einen Preis je Feinunze bei 450 Dollar./jkr/js/hi
--- von Jürgen Krämer, dpa-AFX ---