Beiträge von GoldenCentury

28 Okt 2004 13:45

28.10.2004 13:27:36 Base metals fall on firm dollar, growth worries

* Base metals extend losses in LME first morning rings on dollar's further gains versus euro and slower growth prospects in China and other Asian countries. * China's central bank raised on Thursday its yuan interest rates in what analysts said was an attempt to rein in its economy. * Three-month copper down $62, or 2.2 percent, at $2,738 a tonne, and aluminium dips by $27 to $,1,743. * Nickel falls to $12,980 from $13,340. * Zinc loses $21 to $1,020 and lead down $23 at $850, while no trade for tin .

Ja,der Markt sieht es genauso........China gibts und China nimmts.......

28 Okt 2004 13:34

28.10.2004 13:19:29 Silver fixes sharply down, Europe gold dips on euro

* Silver fixes sharply down on Thursday at 706.00 cents per ounce compared with previous fix at 732.00 cents. Spot market drops to $7.05/7.08 by 1108 GMT from $7.14/7.17 quoted late in New York on Wednesday.

* Silver forward rates on Reuters page indicated at 1.750, 1.730, 1.710 and 1.580 for one, three, six and 12 months respectively.

* Spot gold dips to $420.90/421.65 by 1108 GMT from $423.55/424.30 late in New York on Wednesday, influneced by a drop in euro versus dollar after news China's central bank raises yuan interest rates.

* Spot platinum falls to $826.00/831.00 from $833.00/838.00 last quoted in New York.

* Palladium steadies to $212.00/216.00 from $211.00/217.00 in the U.S. market.

Hängt sicher auch hiermit zusammen:

28 Okt 2004 13:36

28.10.2004 13:28:59 FOKUS 1-Chinas Zentralbank erhöht überraschend Leitzinsen

Peking, 28. Okt (Reuters) - Chinas Zentralbank hat am Donnerstag überraschend erstmals seit neun Jahren die Leitzinsen erhöht, um die überhitzte Konjunktur des Landes weiter abzukühlen.

Der Schlüsselzinssatz für einjährige Yuan-Kredite werde um 27 Basispunkte auf 5,58 Prozent angehoben und der Satz für einjährige Anlagen im gleichen Ausmaß auf auf 2,25 Prozent, teilte die Notenbank am Donnerstag mit. Die Regierung bemüht sich schon länger, Investitionen und Kreditvergaben zu dämpfen. "Mit diesem Schritt wird offenbar eine sanfte Landung der Konjunktur verfolgt", sagte Volkswirtin Sarah Hewin von der American Express Bank in London.

An den Finanzmärkten reagierte der Dollar zeitweise mit kräftigen Kursgewinnen, ohne dass Analysten zunächst andere Erklärungen dafür parat hatten als das reine Überraschungsmoment. Der Euro verbilligte sich um mehr als einen halben Cent auf Kurse knapp über 1,26 Dollar. Am Rentenmarkt stiegen die Renditen.

Das Wachstum der aufstrebenden asiatischen Volkswirtschaft, das schon länger Öl- und Rohstoffpreise weltweit nach oben treibt, hatte sich zuletzt schon etwas abgekühlt. Im dritten Quartal war das chinesische Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) noch um 9,1 Prozent und damit etwas weniger als in den Vorquartalen gewachsen. Die Inflationsrate liegt bei rund fünf Prozent.

Die Zentralbank hob zudem die Begrenzung für Kreditzinsen auf. Bisher durfte der Ausleihesatz von Banken maximal 70 Prozent über dem Leitzins liegen.

iws/sws

28 Okt 2004 08:58

28.10.2004 06:53:10 UPDATE 1-Gold stuck in range in Asia,jewellers shy

(Updates to afternoon)

SINGAPORE, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Gold moved in a tight range in Asia on Thursday, licking its wounds after a pullback in crude oil prices and a rebound in the dollar sparked a heavy sell-off in New York's precious metals market.

Gold has lost around 1.6 percent since it touched a six-month peak of $430.20 an ounce on Monday, but dealers said many jewellery makers were keen to wait for prices to fall further.

Spot gold was at $423.20/423.70 an ounce by 0425 GMT, down slightly from $423.55/424.30 last quoted in New York on Wednesday, when gold fell $2.5 an ounce.

Rising oil prices have helped pushed up gold, which is traditionally seen as a hedge against inflation. Dealers expected the yellow metal to move in a $422 to $425 range for the rest of the Asian trading session.

"We might see a wider trading range in Europe but it will all depend on the oil prices and movements of the dollar," said one dealer in Hong Kong, a key bullion trading city in East Asia.

"I don't see much activity in Hong Kong because physical buyers are hoping for the price to move down to around $400. Gold is still consolidating at the current level and everyone is taking a wait and see attitude," he said.

Crude oil shed another 93 cents in Asia to $51.53 a barrel after data showed a a bigger-than-expected increase in U.S. crude oil supplies.

In the currency market, the dollar lost some of its New York gains as a drop in oil prices only provided a short-lived impact. The euro was at $1.2716 versus 1.2713 in late New York trade.

Some currency dealers said dollar-selling would gain momentum if Democrat John Kerry defeated President George W. Bush in the U.S. presidential election, but others believed it would have little impact.

"The effect that the U.S. elections will have on the dollar are driving the market at the moment," said N M Rothschild in a report.

"And with only days to go before the November 2nd presidential elections, markets will become increasingly jittery as traders square positions."

"Also weighing on gold are fears that the largest speculative long positions on COMEX could be liquidated if prices fail to break higher soon," it said.

In Tokyo gold futures, the new benchmark October gold contract was trading at 1,447 yen per gram, down 16 yen.

Silver was at $7.12/7.15 an ounce, compared with $7.14/7.17 last quoted in New York.

Spot platinum was at $830/835 an ounce, compared with $833/838 last quoted in New York.

Sister metal palladium was at $213/218 an ounce, versus $211/217 in the U.S. market.

28 Okt 2004 09:00

28.10.2004 08:00:17 Gold eases in early Europe, watches oil and euro

* Gold fell slightly in early European trade on Thursday to $422.75/423.50 by 0555 GMT, from $423.25/424.30 last quoted in New York on Wednesday.

* Dealers expected a $422 to $425 range, with oil prices and the dollar's movements against the euro likely to provide direction. The euro was unchanged at $1.2713.

* Oil extended its retreat by more than $1 on Thursday after an unexpectedly large rise in U.S. crude inventories spurred speculative funds to take profits out of record high prices.

* Silver was at $7.12/7.15 an ounce, compared with $7.14/7.17 last quoted in New York.

* Spot platinum was at $830/835 an ounce, compared with $833/838 last quoted in New York.

* Sister metal palladium was at $213/218 an ounce, versus $211/217 in the U.S. market.

27 Okt 2004 23:01

27.10.2004 21:21:41 Gold Fields - Gericht soll Harmony-Übernahmeangebot blockieren

Johannesburg, 27. Okt (Reuters) - Der südafrikanische Bergbaukonzern Gold Fields(/GFIJ.J) wehrt sich gegen die unwillkommene Übernahme-Offerte des kleineren Konkurrenten Harmony Gold Mining(/HARJ.J).

Gold Fields hält das Angebot für gesetzwidrig und hat sich deshalb an das oberste Gericht des Landes gewandt. Das Gericht solle die Wirksamkeit der Offerte untersagen, teilte der Konzern am Mittwoch mit. Bereits am Vortag habe das Unternehmen die Wettbewerbsbehörde des Landes aufgefordert, die Übernahme-Offerte zu stoppen.

Zuvor hatte Harmony mitgeteilt, juristischen Rat eingeholt zu haben. Danach habe sich das Unternehmen korrekt verhalten. Eine Information der Wettbewerbsbehörde sei in diesem frühen Stadium nicht erforderlich gewesen. Harmony hatte vorige Woche angekündigt, den Konkurrenten Gold Fields für rund acht Milliarden Dollar übernehmen und damit zum größten Goldproduzenten der Welt aufsteigen zu wollen.

Auch Gold Fields habe sich juristisch beraten lassen, teilte der Konzern weiter mit. Danach entspreche die Offerte von Harmony nicht den rechtlichen Anforderungen. Darüber habe Gold Fields die südafrikanische Börsenaufsicht informiert. Gold Fields hat das Angebot von Harmony zurückgewiesen, weil dieses nicht dem wahren Wert des Unternehmens entspreche und nicht im Interesse der Aktionäre sei. Gold Fields stehe zu dem im August vereinbarten Zusammenschluss mit der kanadischen Iamgold(/IMG.TO).

fgc/bob

© Reuters 2004

27 Okt 2004 23:00

27.10.2004 21:02:51 NY gold finishes lower as oil and euro retreat

NEW YORK, Oct 27 (Reuters) - COMEX gold futures drifted further away from $430-an-ounce resistance to end lower on Wednesday, as a drop in oil prices and a rising dollar triggered selling in hard assets like the precious metals.

Silver, platinum and palladium prices also fell.

Gold for December delivery at the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division lost $2.00 to settle at $425.60 an ounce, after trading from $430.10 to $424.20. Estimated volume was 70,000 contracts.

Recently strong safe havens like gold fell out of favor and the dollar and equities rose as oil prices skidded after a higher-than-expected build in crude stocks last week.

"There seemed to be a knock-on effect from the lower oil and euro on the precious metals," said a trader at a large bank, adding that momentum quickly shifted lower in metals due to the many outstanding positions currently in those markets.

"Open interest (in gold and silver) has really skyrocketed over the last week, and based off the other commodities, we saw some liquidation here," said another trader, a broker at a COMEX metals firm.

Open interest in COMEX gold rose 1,343 lots to 321,849 contracts as of Oct. 26. Silver's open interest rose 1,318 to 116,815 contracts.

The euro fell almost a full cent against the dollar as U.S. crude oil fell nearly $3 to $52.35 in the afternoon.

Mixed U.S. economic data and jitters surrounding the Nov. 2 presidential contest have helped prop up gold as an alternative investment.

However, players were concerned that a massive speculative net long position in the metals could prompt a brutal sell-off as fund-type accounts pared back their holdings.

Brokers pegged key support in December gold at $423 an ounce and resistance at $433 and then at $436.50, the peak set by the active contract back in April.

Spot gold tumbled to $423.55/4.30 from Tuesday's New York close at $426.05/6.80. Wednesday's afternoon London fix was at $428.25.

December silver fell 13.8 cents to end at $7.202 an ounce, moving between $7.445 and $7.17. Spot was worth $7.14/17, versus $7.29/32 previously. It fixed at $7.32.

Brokers traced support in COMEX silver to $7.12 with resistance at the $7.45/50 area.

January platinum shed $8.70 to $836.20 an ounce. Spot platinum hit $833.00/838.00.

December palladium eased to $214.50 an ounce, down 60 cents. Spot palladium was last at $211.00/217.00.

© Reuters 2004

27 Okt 2004 13:27

27.10.2004 13:20:47 Silver fixes higher, Europe gold holds steady

* Silver fixes higher on Wednesday at 732.00 cents per ounce compared with previous fixing at 731.00. Spot market flat from late New York levels on Tuesday at $7.29/7.32 by 1117 GMT.

* Silver forward rates on Reuters page indicated at 1.760, 1.700, 1.680 and 1.540 for one, three, six and 12 months respectively.

* Spot gold edges up to $426.90/427.50 per troy ounce by 1117 GMT, compared with $426.05/426.80 late in New York on Tuesday.

* Spot platinum firms to $842.00/847.00 from $841.00/846.00 last quoted in New York.

* Palladium at $212.00/217.00 versus $212.00/218.00 in the U.S. market.

Und hier schon die erste Meldung, die Saudis haben eine wilde Müllkippe aufgetan...

26 Okt 2004 21:00

26.10.2004 20:24:07 Saudi-Arabien - Neues Ölvorkommen entdeckt

Riad, 26. Okt (Reuters) - Saudi-Arabien hat nach den Worten seines Ölministers Ali Al-Naimi ein neues Ölvorkommen in dem Königreich entdeckt.

Bei dem Fund mit einer anfänglichen Durchflussrate von täglich 3000 Barrel (Barrel = knapp 159 Liter) handele es sich offenbar um superleichtes (sehr schwefelarmes) Öl, sagte der Minister nach einer von der staatlichen Nachrichtenagentur SPA verbreiteten Erklärung. Das Ölfeld liege 185 Kilometer südlich der Hauptstadt Riad. "Wir erwarten, eine höhere Förderung aus diesem Vorkommen zu erreichen," sagte Al-Naimi, ohne weitere Einzelheiten zu nennen.

Saudi-Arabien ist der weltgrößte Ölexporteur und führendes Mitglied der Organisation Erdöl exportierender Länder (Opec).

fgc/ast

© Reuters 2004

26 Okt 2004 17:12

26.10.2004 17:10:35 Gold kann Rekordkurs nicht fortsetzen

London, 26. Okt (Reuters) - Gold hat sich am Dienstag nach dem Höhenflug vom Wochenauftakt ein wenig abgeschwächt. Mit der Atempause bei der Dollarabwertung sei auch der Goldanstieg gebremst worden, sagten Händler. Der Fall der US-Währung war am Nachmittag nach Kommentaren der EU-Kommission, dass ein weiterer Anstieg des Ölpreises das Wirtschaftswachstum behindern könnte, gestoppt worden.

Nachdem sich Gold gestern nahe an das 16-Jahreshoch bei 430,50 Dollar je Feinunze herangetastet hatte, danach aber wieder abgab, schloss es am Dienstag in Europa auf 426,95/7,70 nach 428,25/429,00 Dollar am Vorabendabend. Am Nachmittag wurde Gold in London mit 427,50 Dollar gefixt nach 427,15 Dollar am Vormittag und 429,15 am Dienstagnachmittag.

Der anhaltende Dollarverfall, der Kursanstieg der Ölnotierungen, unsichere Finanzmärkte und Defizite in den Staatshaushalten bildeten ein positives Klima für Goldinvestitionen, schreiben die Analysten der Privatbank LB Swiss. Langfristig spreche zudem eine global stärkere Nachfrage für einen weiteren Anstieg des Goldpreises. Jedoch nehme bei Notierung über 430 Dollar der spekulative Druck zu, hiess es weiter.

Eine Schweizer Grossbank gab den Gold-Kilopreis mit 16.355/16.605 (Vorabend 16.393/16.643) sfr an.

pma/ajs

© Reuters 2004

26 Okt 2004 17:10

26.10.2004 17:00:42 UPDATE 1-Gold falters in Europe as euro sags vs dollar

LONDON, Oct 26 (Reuters) - Gold backed off in Europe on Tuesday as the market consolidated Monday's sharp euro-led gains, but dealers were still looking for bullion to shoot for a near 16-year peak beyond $430 per ounce in coming sessions.

Spot gold eased to $426.85/427.60 per troy ounce by 1441 GMT from $428.25/429.00 quoted late in New York on Monday. The market scored a fresh six-month peak on Monday at $430.20.

Bullion was pulled down in the afternoon by the euro, which hit session lows against the dollar on Tuesday, after a European Commission report said a sharp and further rise in the euro could cut into economic growth.

Underlying support was still seen coming from high oil prices that polished the metal's allure as an inflation hedge.

"Gold found a bit of selling with people taking profits on the back of a slip back in the euro," one dealer said.

Earlier on Tuesday, the dollar fell to eight month lows against the euro, with overall pressure from oil prices ($54 a barrel) that stoked fears on the outlook for economic growth in the United States.

Consumer confidence board figures released on Tuesday fell to 92.8 in October, below economists' expectations for a median reading of 94.0.

"The figures were no surprise, the point was that everyone knew they would fall because of the impact from oil," another trader said.

Alexander Zumpfe of Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein said in a daily report that there were nerves in the market about the prospect of moving to multi-year highs due to high speculative exposure at current levels.

"However, given the current upward trend and the overall environment of dollar weakness and oil price strength, higher prices cannot nonetheless be ruled out," he said adding that April's peak of $430.40 needed to be taken out before 1988 levels could be achieved.

Silver backed down in line with consolidatory moves on gold to $7.27/7.30 from $7.33/7.36 in New York on Monday.

Platinum eased to $842.00/846.00 from $846.50/851.50, while palladium stood at $214.00/218.00 from $214.00/220.00.

© Reuters 2004

26 Okt 2004 13:28

26.10.2004 13:17:20 Silver fixes down, Europe gold eases from peaks

* Silver fixes lower at 731.00 cents per ounce compared with previous fixing at 744.00 cents. Spot market eases in line with moves on gold to $7.29/7.32 per troy ounce by 1110 GMT from $7.33/7.36 quoted late in New York on Monday.

* Silver forward rates on Reuters page indicated at 1.747, 1.705, 1.708 and 1.523 for one, three, six and 12 months respectively.

* Spot gold eases to $427.00/427.75 by 1110 GMT, from $428.25/429.00 in New York on Monday.

* Gold down after hitting a six-month peak on Monday at $430.20, market still eyeing gains to near-16-year peaks above $430.50.

* Platinum eases to $844.00/848.00 from $846.50/851.50, while palladium at $214.00/218.00 from $214.00/220.00.

26 Okt 2004 10:03

26.10.2004 09:54:02 Tokyo gold down as dollar finds floor, oil falls

TOKYO, Oct 26 (Reuters) - Tokyo gold futures backed off on Tuesday as the spot price ran out of steam after the dollar regained some ground versus the yen and as oil prices fell from record highs, but sentiment for the yellow metal stayed bullish.

Precious metals drew safe-haven interest amid uncertainty about the outcome of the U.S. presidential election next week.

"Today's drop was mainly caused by falls in (dollar-based) spot prices, but sentiment is bullish," said Tadashi Hashimoto, general manager at Nissho Iwai Futures.

"Precious metals should draw strong safe-haven demand until we know the results of the presidential election."

The benchmark August gold contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) closed down 2 yen per gram at 1,472 yen. The prompt October contract expired at 1,469 yen, also 2 yen lower than Monday's settlement.

Other contracts closed down 3 to 7 yen.

Precious metals were mostly under pressure as spot gold drifted off a high above $430 per ounce hit the previous day.

At 0724 GMT, spot bullion was quoted at $427.00/7.75 an ounce against $428.25/9.00 in New York.

Gold hit a six-month peak at $430.20 an ounce on Monday.

The yellow metal continued to draw demand as a hedge against inflation with oil prices staying buoyant.

The dollar tumbled to fresh eight-month lows against the euro on Tuesday, down for a 10th straight day on worries about the U.S. economy and gaping trade deficit.

Analysts said the dollar was under pressure from a range of factors, including uncertainty about the election and comments from European officials that suggested they were comfortable with a higher euro.

The euro, which has gained close to 5 percent in the past three weeks, rose as high as $1.2842 .

The dollar was little changed at 106.72 yen against a six-month low of 106.22 marked on Monday. It has slipped about 4.5 percent against the yen in little over three weeks.

"As long as the dollar is bearish, precious metals will be supported, but a sharp drop could raise concerns about the domestic economy," Hashimoto said.

Japan's export-led economy could be undermined by an excessively strong yen, which could depress share prices and cut demand for precious metals for industrial use.

TOCOM platinum dropped as the strength of the yen induced profit-taking by yen-based investors.

But the trend stayed bullish given the overall optimism in the precious metals market.

Sentiment was supported after the prompt October contract expired above 3,000 yen, traders said.

The key August contract closed down 19 yen at 2,877 yen. Others closed down 7 to 24.

Below are closing prices for TOCOM's most active precious metals contracts, with the day's turnover for each metal.

Closing prices are in yen per gram except for silver, which is in yen per 10 grams:

For open interest details please click

Closing price Turnover (lots)
GOLD 1,472 (down 2) 73,696
SILVER 249.2 (down 4.2) 6,636
PLATINUM 2,877 (down 19) 30,517
PALLADIUM 746 (up 5) 738

26 Okt 2004 09:13

26.10.2004 08:07:00 Gold little changed in early Europe, eyes euro

* Gold hardly moved in early European trade on Tuesday and was at $428.00/428.50 by 0558 GMT, versus $428.25/429.00 last quoted in New York on Monday.

* Dealers said gold was taking a breather before another attempt at a 16-year high above $430, helped by the weak U.S. dollar and high oil prices.'

* The euro, which has gained close to 5 percent in the past three weeks, rose as high as $1.2842 in Asia. It was trading at $1.2803, compared with $1.2805 in late U.S. trade.

* Silver was at $7.29/7.32 an ounce, compared with $7.33/7.36 last quoted in New York.

* Spot platinum was at $849/854 an ounce, compared with $846.50/851.50 in New York.

* Sister metal palladium was at $214/219 an ounce, versus $214/220 in the U.S. market.

Die Wahrheit liegt auf'm Platz..........Kingsgate

Auf Presentation(PDF) klicken, markanter Gewinnrückgang.........

Grüsse
GC

25 Okt 2004 17:50

25.10.2004 17:45:07 Commodities News Summary

TOP NEWS
> UPDATE 1-Gold surges near 16-year highs, euro fans [nL25344316]

LONDON - Gold was within reach of its highest level in nearly 16 years on Monday, fired by a resurgent euro and inflationary fears fanned by sky-high oil prices, dealers and analysts said.

"I don't think we've seen anything yet," Ross Norman of TheBullionDesk.com told Reuters in a telephone interview.

- - - -

> NY gold hits 6-1/2-mo. high early, on oil, dollar [nN25395327]

NEW YORK - Gold futures shot to 6-1/2-month highs Monday morning as an ailing dollar plunged against its rivals, and the precious metal had plenty of room to stretch higher amid soaring oil prices, traders said.

At the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for December delivery jumped $4.10 to $429.70 an ounce at 10:29 a.m. EDT, trading from $426.60 to $432.

- - - -

Europe gold ends on solid ground, off six-mth peak [nL25686476]

* Gold ends firm after hitting fresh six-month peak in Europe on strong euro versus dollar and inflation worries fanned by high oil prices.

* Spot gold ends at $427.85/428.60 per troy ounce by 1515 GMT after hitting six-month peak earlier at $430.20. That compared with $423.95/424.70 quoted late in New York on Friday.

- - - -

> Bird flu kills 14-year-old Thai girl [nBKK110445]

BANGKOK - Bird flu has killed a 14-year old Thai girl, raising the country's toll from the disease to 12 this year, the Public Health Ministry said on Monday.

- - - -

METALS > UPDATE 2-BHP Billiton approves $1.6 bln copper,iro [nSYD100548]

MELBOURNE - BHP Billiton Ltd./Plc. (/BHP.AX) (/BLT.L), the world's biggest miner, has approved a $990 million copper project in northern Chile and a $575 million iron ore expansion in Western Australia, ramping up production to meet hot global demand.

- - - -

> UPDATE 2-Harmony Q1 headline loss misses expectati [nL25552355]

JOHANNESBURG - South African miner Harmony (/HARJ.J), seeking to acquire bigger rival Gold Fields (/GFIJ.J), posted a worse-than-expected first-quarter headline loss per share of 110 cents on Monday, but the group's cost cutting pleased investors.

- - - -

> UPDATE 3-Harmony posts Q1 loss,but cost cuts pleas [nL25552355]

JOHANNESBURG - South African miner Harmony (/HARJ.J), seeking to acquire bigger rival Gold Fields (/GFIJ.J), posted a worse than expected first-quarter loss on Monday, but the group's cost cutting pleased investors.

- - - -

> UPDATE 1-Boliden sees healthy metals outlook for Q [nL25550892]

STOCKHOLM - Swedish mining and smelting firm Boliden (/BOL.ST) said on Monday that its fourth quarter results would be strong as global demand for copper and zinc remains healthy.

- - - -

> UPDATE 1-China cracks down on alumina imports [nSP112352]

HONG KONG - Aluminium smelters in China with capacity below 100,000 tonnes a year will be banned from directly importing alumina, a circular issued by the Ministry of Commerce showed on Monday.

- - - -

> EU's proposed chemicals policy "unworkable"-ALFED [nL25561456]

LONDON - The requirements of the European Union's (EU) new chemicals policy, known as REACH, may prove to be unworkable, ALFED, the UK aluminium industry group, said on Monday.

- - - -

GRAINS/OILSEEDS/LIVESTOCK > INTERVIEW-U.S. hopeful of beef ban lift in S. Kore [nTP164800]

TAIPEI - The United States expects South Korea to make concrete steps towards lifting an import ban on U.S. beef at high-level meetings in Seoul this week, following moves by Japan and Taiwan, a senior USDA official said on Monday.

- - - -

> French farmers block fuel depots, demand more aid [nL25578432]

PARIS - French farmers were blockading an increasing number of fuel depots on Monday as they demanded more government help to ease the impact of soaring oil prices, union leaders said.

- - - -

> UPDATE 1-China expects $10 bln surplus, textile fr [nPEK63039]

BEIJING - China expects its trade surplus to be around $10 billion in 2004, and sees friction over textile exports topping the list of trade troubles next year, a senior Commerce Ministry official has said.

- - - -

> UDPATE 1-Chalco says Q3 avg alumina sales price up [nHKG55243]

HONG KONG - Aluminum Corp of China Ltd. (/2600.HK) (Chalco), the world's No.2 alumina producer, said on Monday its third-quarter average alumina sales price rose 39 percent from the year-ago period amid a global shortage.

- - - -

COCOA/COFFEE/SUGAR > Ivory Coast exporters open, strike still suspended [nL25485579]

ABIDJAN - Unions representing Ivory Coast's striking cocoa farmers met cooperatives on Monday to discuss a government funding offer while leading exporters took delivery of beans as normal.

- - - -

25 Okt 2004 17:25

25.10.2004 17:20:26 Gold verfehlt neues 16-Jahre-Hoch nur knapp

London, 25. Okt (Reuters) - Gold hat zum Wochenauftakt um Haaresbreite ein neues 16-Jahre-Hoch verfehlt. Im Schlepptau der Dollarschwäche stieg das gelbe Metall am Montag im Tagesverlauf bis auf 430,20 Dollar je Feinunze und ging damit auf Tuchfühlung zum im Januar erreichten 430,50 Dollar, was damals dem höchsten Stand seit 16 Jahren entsprach.

Bis zum Handelsschluss büsste Gold in Europa büsste Gold dann wieder leicht ein und notierte zuletzt bei 428,25/429,00 Dollar nach 422,75/423,50 Dollar Freitagabend. Am Nachmittag wurde Gold in London mit 429,15 Dollar gefixt nach 429,00 Dollar am Vormittag und 422,80 am Freitagnachmittag.

Der neue Rekordstand bei Gold sei in Reichweite gekommen, weil der anhaltende hohe Ölpreis die Inflationsängste nähre, sagten Händler. Jedoch vergrössere sich mit jedem Schritt über die Marke von 430 Dollar auch die Gefahr von spekulativen Verkäufen stark. Es komme nun hauptsächlich darauf an, ob der Euro, der zum Dollar den höchsten Stand seit Februar erklommen hat, das jetzige Niveau halten könne. Sollte dies der Fall sein, könnten die nächsten Haltelinien bei 435 und 440 Dollar den Höhenflug des gelben Metalls stoppen.

Eine Schweizer Grossbank gab den Gold-Kilopreis mit 16.393/16.643 (Freitagabend 16.455/16.705) sfr an.

pma/par

© Reuters 2004

25 Okt 2004 17:19

25.10.2004 17:09:36 NY gold hits 6-1/2-mo. high early, on oil, dollar

NEW YORK, Oct 25 (Reuters) - Gold futures shot to 6-1/2-month highs Monday morning as an ailing dollar plunged against its rivals, and the precious metal had plenty of room to stretch higher amid soaring oil prices, traders said.

At the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for December delivery jumped $4.10 to $429.70 an ounce at 10:29 a.m. EDT, trading from $426.60 to $432.

Gold was benefiting from its status as a classic safe-haven investment as the dollar flirted with a record low versus the euro while oil held strong near its record above $55 a barrel.

Rising crude oil prices and worries about the U.S. current account deficit were weighing heavily on the greenback, which boosted demand from overseas for precious metals because they are priced in dollars.

Oil itself rocketed higher as a threat by Norwegian oil employers to halt output from the world's third biggest exporter stoked supply fears.

"The rally in the gold is basically on the weakness in the dollar, the news out of Norway and the oil moving higher," Frank Aburto, a trader at F.C. Stone, said.

"We are looking at a target of $430 at this moment in spot gold and maybe then $450, if we follow what the rest of the world is saying."

At midmorning, the euro was up at $1.2778 , but still off from the Feb. 18 record high of $1.2927.

Meanwhile, big fund-type accounts extended the massive net speculative long position in New York gold futures in the latest week. Analysts were concerned that the glut of longs was getting burdensome to the market and could lead to a sell-off.

Closely watched Commitments of Traders data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued after Friday's close showed the net fund long stance rose 5,777 lots to 120,914 lots as of Oct. 19.

The exposure is the fifth highest ever, said Tim Evans, senior commodity analyst at IFR Markets.

"There is potential for further buying up to the 144,253 contract extreme from April 6, or for an even larger position, depending on the market's ability to either attract new players or for existing players to pyramid to an even larger position size," he added.

"However, the flow in does not look all that robust here, and there is also risk of long liquidation, especially if crude oil and the dollar reverse course."

Evans traced resistance in COMEX December gold to $432 an ounce and then April's 15-year high at $436.50, with support at $423-421, $416.10 and then at the low from Oct. 13 at $410.50.

Meanwhile, crude was near a new all-time high above $55 a barrel on Monday.

Spot gold fetched $428.05/8.80, above Friday's New York closing level at $423.95/4.70. Monday's afternoon London fix was at $429.15.

December silver traded at $7.37 an ounce, up 3.7 cents, within a range of $7.36 to $7.53 range, on the back of gold's gains.

Evans viewed slight resistance at $7.42, followed by the $7.80-$8.00 area, while support rested at $7.15 and then at $6.91.

Spot silver hit $7.33/36, versus its prior late quote at $7.28/31. It fixed on Monday at $7.44.

January platinum rose $5.1 to $850 an ounce. Spot platinum touched $847.00/851.00.

December palladium advanced $2.60 to $218.55 an ounce. Spot palladium climbed to $215.00/219.00.

© Reuters 2004

25 Okt 2004 14:37

25.10.2004 14:30:21 Gold licks at near 16-year highs, euro fans gains

By Veronica Brown

LONDON, Oct 25 (Reuters) - Gold was within reach of its highest level in nearly 16 years on Monday, fired by a resurgent euro and inflationary fears fanned by sky-high oil prices, dealers and analysts said.

"I don't think we've seen anything yet," Ross Norman of TheBullionDesk.com told Reuters in a telephone interview.

"With the euro where it is, oil where it is and tension ahead of the U.S. election I think we could see another attempt at $430.50 and it might just poke through," he added.

Bullion, which hit a 15-year peak on January 6 at $430.50, has traded steadily higher this year, extending a bull cycle that has stretched out since 2001 when prices fell towards $250.

Having struck a fresh six-month peak earlier on Monday at $430.20 per ounce, dealers said fund buyers would try and push for the January 6 peak and beyond to levels last seen in 1988, emboldened by a rampant euro making the metal more attractive.

The market's upswing has been influenced by a weaker dollar, geo-political uncertainty, producers buying back previously sold forward production and sky-high oil prices fanning inflationary worries.

"Oil is playing a part but the dollar is the big mover in gold," Peter Hillyard, head of European metal sales at ANZ Bank, told Reuters. He spoke after benchmark U.S. light crude set a fresh peak of $55.67 a barrel.

"The market believes $430-plus (for gold) will be penetrated and, depending on who you talk to, there are people saying $500. I think that's a little overdone," he added.

The euro rose on Monday to within once cent of record highs against the U.S. dollar hit in February.

Record oil prices and worries about the widening U.S. current account deficit have hit the dollar -- making gold less expensive for non-U.S. investors.

The rising price of gold was not expected to have an immediate impact on jewellery prices.

Even though analysts had noted the supportive factors behind gold's drive up, they also raised concerns about massive speculative exposure which could spark a sharp sell-off further out.

Commitments of Traders data, issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and showing how much of the metal speculators have bought, showed the net speculative long position in New York's COMEX gold futures market rose to 120,914 contracts as of October 19, from 115,137 contracts on October 12.

"Gold is set to break the year high of $430.50 on dollar weakness -- but there is little else behind the move at the moment. Speculators appear to be fully loaded, or very nearly so," John Reade of UBS investment bank said in a daily report.

"For investors looking for a play on dollar weakness there are probably lower-risk alternatives available."

© Reuters 2004

25 Okt 2004 13:42

25.10.2004 12:58:41 Europe gold eyes 16-year highs as euro surges

LONDON, Oct 25 (Reuters) - Gold hovered near its highest for almost 16 years in Europe on Monday, fired by a resurgent euro against the dollar amid worries about the U.S. economy.

Dealers said January's peak of $430.50 an ounce was in sight as inflationary fears fanned by high oil prices also gripped the market, but growing speculative exposure heightened the risks of selling.

Spot gold stood at $429.90/430.60 by 1050 GMT after hitting a six-month peak of $430.20 at one stage. That compared with $423.95/424.70 quoted late in New York on Friday.

Silver was also trading around six-month peaks at $7.45/7.48 compared with around $7.30 in New York on Friday.

"The market is looking very well bid with the euro, I think people will try and get up to the January high and beyond on gold, but it really depends on whether the euro can hold," one trader said.

The euro rose to $1.2819 , near mid-February's record high of $1.2927 and making gold more attractive to non-U.S. investors.

Oil hit an all-time peak above $55 a barrel, fuelling concern about U.S. growth and the U.S. economy's ability to attract investors.

Analysts said gold had to make a move beyond $430 or face heavy speculative selling.

"The gold market appears to be reaching make or break point as the weight of recent speculative interest battles with support generated through the drown trending dollar and rising oil prices," James Moore of TheBullionDesk.com said in a daily report.

"Resistance is...likely to be found at $435/440 although further price gains will ultimately depend on advances by the metal's main catalyst, the euro," he added.

On Friday, the Commitments of Traders data issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed the net speculative long position in COMEX gold rose to 120,914 contracts as of Oct. 19, from 115,137 contracts on Oct. 12.

Spot platinum was at $853.00/858.00, compared with $841.00/846.00 last quoted in New York.

Palladium was at $214.00/219.00, versus $213/218 in the U.S. market.

25 Okt 2004 13:40

25.10.2004 13:32:38 Silver fixes up, Europe gold around six-month peak

* Silver fixes sharply higher at 744.00 cents per ounce compared with previous fixing at 720.50 cents. Spot silver trades around highest in six months, in line with sharp moves up on gold, at $7.44/7.47 per troy ounce by 1112 GMT, compared with around $7.30 in New York late on Friday. * Silver forward rates on Reuters page indicated at 1.744, 1.686, 1.686 and 1.504 for one, three, six and 12 months respectively. * Spot gold hovers under fresh six-month peak hit earlier at $430.20. Last at $428.75/429.50 at 1112 GMT from $423.95/424.70 quoted late in New York on Friday. * Euro surges beyond $1.2800 against the dollar, making gold more affordable for non-U.S. investors. * Dealers say market poised to pounce on January's then 15-year peak of $430.50 and beyond if euro can hold gains. * Spot platinum firms to $851.00/856.00, compared with $841.00/846.00 last quoted in New York. * Palladium slightly higher at $214.00/219.00, versus $213.00/218.00 in the U.S. market.

22 Okt 2004 21:06

22.10.2004 20:38:50 NY gold settles flat at week's end, silver firms

NEW YORK, Oct 22 (Reuters) - COMEX gold futures erased morning losses to end flat Friday while silver edged higher with the strong euro, but profit-taking kept the metals from returning to the 6-1/2-month peaks they scaled on Thursday, dealers said.

At the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, December delivery gold ended unchanged at $425.60 an ounce, after keeping to a narrow band between $423.20 and $426.50.

Gold was consolidating in a roughly $5 trading range due to a lack of significant U.S. economic data during the day to sway financial markets, analysts said.

Refco analyst Tom Boustead expected gold to stay in its recent range as long as COMEX December holds between key support at $423 and first resistance at $428. The next upside targets lie at $430 and then $433, which represents a 15-year peak for futures reached back in April.

With runaway oil prices and the dollar in a downtrend, investors boosted gold futures to $427.50 an ounce on Thursday, its highest mark since April.

The euro charted fresh eight-month highs against the greenback on Friday to trade at $1.2636 in the afternoon, which was up from the previous close at about $1.2615.

"I would have expected a bit more positive price action given the euro," commented Paul McLeod, a precious metals vice president at Commerzbank Securities.

Gold tends to benefit from dollar weakness as dollar-denominated metals get cheaper in non-U.S. currencies.

But an already large fund net long position in gold may have given the market pause on Friday before it takes another stab at higher prices, McLeod said.

"(Gold) kind of got out ahead of itself -- it had a bit of run before the euro made the play upward -- so it's been more of a rebalancing impact over the last couple of days," he added.

Meanwhile, crude hit a record high $55.50 a barrel.

Spot gold priced at $423.95/4.70, barely changed from Thursday's New York close at $423.85/4.60. The afternoon London fix was at $422.80.

COMEX December silver rose 2.3 cents to $7.333 an ounce, within a $7.20 to $7.37 range. Spot silver reached $7.38/31 versus its previous late quote at $7.27/30. It fixed Friday at $7.205.

NYMEX January platinum fell $6.90 to close at $844.90 an ounce. Spot platinum hit $841.00/846.00.

December palladium lost 95 cents to $215.95 an ounce. Spot palladium traded at $213.00/218.00.

© Reuters 2004