Beiträge von GoldenCentury

Geschäfte mit dem Irak lohnen sich....Ivanhoe Energy (IVAN) im Moment 20% im Plus....

Ivanhoe Energy signs agreement with Iraq Ministry of Oil to evaluate Qaiyarah Oil Field

BAKERSFIELD, CA, Oct 13, 2004 (Canada NewsWire via COMTEX) -- Ivanhoe Energy
(Middle East) Inc., a subsidiary of Ivanhoe Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: IVAN and TSX:
IE), and the Ministry of Oil of the Government of Iraq have signed a memorandum
of understanding (MOU) for Ivanhoe to study and evaluate the shallow Qaiyarah
Oil Field in northern Iraq. The field's reservoirs contain a large proven
accumulation of 17.1 degree API heavy oil at a depth of about 1,000 feet.

Ivanhoe will evaluate the potential response of the Qaiyarah Field to the latest
in Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) techniques, along with the potential value that
could be added using Ensyn Petroleum International Ltd.'s heavy-to-light (HTL)
oil RTP(TM) conversion technology to produce higher quality, more valuable crude
oil. Ivanhoe has the exclusive rights to use Ensyn's technology in Iraq. The
work will include an assessment of the oil-in-place in the reservoirs, and the
optimum EOR/HTL methods to establish economically recoverable reserves at
Qaiyarah.

Ivanhoe President and CEO Leon Daniel said the company expects to complete the
study within a few months of receiving the required data from the Iraq Ministry
of Oil. "The Qaiyarah Field holds significant potential and may be an excellent
candidate for the application of the Ensyn HTL oil technology," he said. "We are
very pleased that the Government of Iraq has given Ivanhoe this key role in
evaluating the reservoir at Qaiyarah."

If the evaluation studies indicate development of the field is economically
viable, Ivanhoe will present a development plan and offer a commercial proposal
to implement an enhanced oil recovery program for Qaiyarah. The Ministry of Oil
is under no obligation to execute the project or to enter into formal commercial
negotiations at the completion of Ivanhoe's study.

Ivanhoe Energy trades on the NASDAQ SmallCap market with the ticker symbol IVAN
and on the Toronto Stock Exchange with the symbol IE.

FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS: This document includes forward-looking statements.
Forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements
concerning general industry and market conditions, fluctuations in oil and gas
prices, dependence on new product development, statements relating to the
continued advancement of Ivanhoe Energy's projects, and other statements which
are not historical facts. When used in this document, the words such as "could,"
"plan," "estimate," "expect," "intend," "may," "potential," "should," and
similar expressions are forward-looking statements. Although Ivanhoe Energy
believes that its expectations reflected in these forward-looking statements are
reasonable, such statements involve risks and uncertainties and no assurance can
be given that actual results will be consistent with these forward-looking
statements. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ from
these forward-looking statements include the potential that the company's
projects will experience technological and mechanical problems, new product
development will not proceed as planned, the Ensyn process to upgrade bitumen
and heavy oil may not be commercially viable, geological conditions in the
reservoir may not result in commercial levels of oil and gas production, the
risk associated with doing business in Iraq and other foreign countries, changes
in product prices and other risks disclosed in Ivanhoe's Annual Report on Form
10-K filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

RESERVES DATA AND OTHER OIL AND GAS INFORMATION: Ivanhoe's disclosure of
reserves data and other oil and gas information is made in reliance on an
exemption granted to Ivanhoe by Canadian securities regulatory authorities,
which permits Ivanhoe to provide disclosure in accordance with US disclosure
requirements.

The information provided by Ivanhoe may differ from the corresponding
information prepared in accordance with Canadian disclosure standards under
National Instrument 51-101 (NI 51-101). Further information about the
differences between the US requirements and the NI 51-101 requirements is set
forth under the heading "Reserves, Production and Related Information" in
Ivanhoe's Annual Report on Form 10-K.

VIEW ADDITIONAL COMPANY-SPECIFIC INFORMATION:
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/orgDisplay.cgi?okey=52163

13 Okt 2004 17:50

13.10.2004 17:45:51 Gold fällt in Europa zeitweise unter 410 Dollar

London, 13. Okt (Reuters) - Gold ist am Mittwoch in Europa vorübergehend unter 410 Dollar je Feinunze gesunken. Unter Druck kam das Edelmetall einerseits durch die Gewinne der US-Devise und andererseits durch eine allgemeine negative Tendenz an den weltweiten Rohstoffmärkten.

Anleger, die auf einen anhaltende Aufwärtsbewegung gesetzt hatten, nachdem Gold in der vergangenen Woche auf ein Sechsmonatshoch von 423,70 Dollar gestiegen war, zeigten sich enttäuscht. Technische Verkäufe drückte das gelbe Metall weiter, nachdem die Unterstützung bei 414 Dollar deutlich unterschritten wurde, begründeten Analysten den Abgabedruck. Der anziehende Dollar sorgte zudem für einen Rückzug von Investoren, die das in der US-Währung gehandelte Gold mit Fremddevisen bezahlen müssen.

Zu Handelsschluss in Europa stand Gold bei 411,95/412,80 Dollar nach 413,95/414,70 Dollar am Vorabend. Das Tagestief lag bei 409,70 Dollar. Das Nachmittagsfixing in London erfolgte bei 411,25 Dollar nach 412,45 Dollar am Vormittag. Am Dienstagnachmittag war Gold noch mit 414,70 Dollar gefixt worden.

Eine Schweizer Grossbank gab den Gold-Kilopreis mit 16.570/16.820 sfr nach 16.627/16.877 sfr am Vorabend an.

ish/par

13 Okt 2004 11:17

13.10.2004 11:05:41 Aluminium talk pushes Shanghai copper down

SHANGHAI, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Shanghai copper futures closed lower for the second straight session on Wednesday, as renewed talk that China would end rebates on aluminium exports helped copper contracts reverse early gains, traders said.

A slide in copper prices on the London Metal Exchange also hurt sentiment, they said.

Shanghai's most active January copper contract ended down 230 yuan at 28,630 yuan ($3,459) per tonne, after jumping 610 yuan in early morning trade.

"It was completely unexpected," said a Shanghai trader. "Aluminium prices suddenly plunged on those rumours late in the morning, ending the copper rebound abruptly."

By Wednesday's close, most aluminium futures had gone limit-down. The active December contract plunged 500 yuan to 16,480 yuan as combined aluminium volume rose to 50,172 lots from Tuesday's 32,640 lots.

The talk, which could not be officially confirmed, went that Beijing would stop paying eight percent value-added rebates for aluminium exports starting 2005, traders said.
Speculation of such a move had surfaced intermittently since the start of 2004 when China trimmed rebates from 15 percent.

Other copper contracts dropped between 230 yuan and 780 yuan on Wednesday as combined volume soared to a rare 311,034 lots from 157,806 lots on Tuesday, helped by volatile trading.

Spot copper in Shanghai plunged about 700 yuan to move in a range between 30,640 yuan to 30,770 yuan on Wednesday.

On the LME, copper futures shed about $45 in Wednesday's Asian trade. LME three-month copper was trading at $3,030/$3,040 a tonne by 0415 GMT after it had started the day around $3,075 and traded up before diving in the late morning.

Domestic copper futures prices closed limit-down on Tuesday on profit-taking sparked by renewed market speculation of an impending appreciation of the Chinese yuan currency.

China's foreign exchange watchdog denined the rumours after the market closed on Tuesday, but that did little to stabilise domestic metal prices, traders said.
The price ratio between the Shanghai January contract and the LME three-months stood at 9.41 at the close of the Shanghai market at 0700 GMT on Wednesday, edging up from 9.37 on Tuesday.

Traders say investors tend to buy LME copper when that ratio exceeds 10.3, which typically includes import and shipping fees.

If the ratio is lower than 10.3, that indicates LME prices that are higher than costs of importing the metal, opening up the reverse of that arbitrage opportunity. ($1 = 8.276 Yuan)

© Reuters 2004

13 Okt 2004 10:05

13.10.2004 09:57:13 Tokyo gold, platinum fall but demand seen firm

TOKYO, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Tokyo gold futures slipped on Wednesday, pressured by a decline on the New York market, while platinum tumbled on news that a strike had ended at a South African producer.

However, market players said demand for both metals was steady, and that the declines were likely to be limited.

The benchmark August gold contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) fell 24 yen to 1,464 yen per gram after hitting a high of 1,469 yen.

The day's trough of 1,462 yen was the lowest level in about two weeks, and is almost 3 percent below a 12-year high of 1,503 yen marked on October 6.

Analysts said, however, that market sentiment was firm.

"Looking at it from the near and medium-term, there is steady demand for gold. I see this as a temporary position adjustment," a Tokyo analyst said.

Spot bullion wavered narrowly, and was quoted at $413.75/4.50 an ounce at TOCOM's closing bell against $414.25/415.00 in New York.

Gold closed down in New York on Tuesday as a strong dollar sparked fund selling.

December gold settled $6.80 lower at $416.60 an ounce on Tuesday.

Some analysts have said they no longer hold as strictly to the traditional view of gold buying as a hedge against inflation, but others have said that stronger crude prices remain a factor to support gold prices.

These analysts say TOCOM could test the 12-year high of 1,503 yen marked last week when crude oil tries to top $55.

Crude oil prices, ripe for a correction after an almost unbroken climb since mid-August, slipped on Wednesday but dealers cautioned that the decline might only be a temporary reprieve.

U.S. light, sweet crude was trading at around $52.30 a barrel, down from from Tuesday's all-time high of $54.45.

Elsewhere, TOCOM platinum fell across the board with most contracts falling by their daily limit of 80 yen per gram.

Spot platinum was at $829/834 versus $836/841 last quoted in New York.

News that a strike at the world's second-largest platinum producer had ended pushed prices lower, although market players continue to watch developments at top producer Angloplat (/AMSJ.J) where miners continued to stay off the job.

Workers at Implats (/IMPJ.J) agreed on Tuesday to a new wage offer to end a 12-day strike.

August palladium on TOCOM was at 789 yen, down 30 yen, while August silver was at 243.8 yen, down 9.6 yen.

In the currency market, the dollar was at 109.89/94 at 0630 GMT, compared with late U.S. trade at around 109.68 yen.

Below are closing prices for TOCOM's most active precious metals contracts, with the day's turnover for each metal.

Closing prices are in yen per gram except for silver, which is in yen per 10 grams:

For open interest details please click

Closing price Turnover (lots)
GOLD 1,464 (down 24) 105,315
SILVER 243.8 (down 9.6) 6,492
PLATINUM 2,846 (down 75) 77,759
PALLADIUM 789 (down 30) 1,072

12 Okt 2004 20:16

12.10.2004 16:17:11 NY gold and silver slip to 1-week lows on strong dollar

NEW YORK, Oct 12 (Reuters) - COMEX gold and silver futures fell to their lowest levels in a week Tuesday morning as a stronger dollar sparked speculative selling across the metals complex, traders said.

Platinum and palladium likewise sagged to their cheapest in a week as traders and players cashed in on recent price rallies.

December gold at 9:50 a.m. EDT (1350 GMT) was down $7.20 at $416.20 an ounce after breaking below chart support points at $421.50 and $420 and then $418.

"The markets are getting ahead of themselves and you're getting a swift technical correction in the metals," said AG Edwards & Sons commodity commentator James Quinn.

Gold extended its slide from Monday on more profit-taking from Friday's six-month peak at $426 that was fueled by surging oil prices and weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data.

A fresh rise in oil prices above $54 a barrel and a slippage in U.S. equities failed to lend much strength to the metal while the dollar firmed against the euro to hold near $1.23.

Dealers said that funds were trimming long positions in the precious metals after last week's sharp run-up.

"We broke a strong trend-line that was going back to the beginning of September at $417.60, basis spot, and with the open interest extremely high, there was a lot of pressure," said a head trader an international bank.

Spot gold last changed hands at $414.25/5.00, compared to Monday's close at $421.45/2.20. Tuesday's early London fix was at $418.20.

Dealers peg support in COMEX December gold at around $415 and then at $413.30 with resistance lurking up at $430.

In silver, COMEX December fell 18.7 cents to $7.07 an ounce, trading from $7.265 to $6.96. Spot hit $7.01/04 against $7.16/19 late Monday. The London fix was $7.025.

NYMEX January platinum lost $15 to $834 an ounce. Spot platinum was worth $836.00/841.00.

December palladium shed $9 to $222 an ounce. Spot hit $216.00/221.00.

© Reuters 2004

Die wahren Gründe liegen wohl eher im Ölpreis(fällt derzeit wie ein Stein)

11 Okt 2004 18:00

11.10.2004 17:51:06 Commodities News Summary

TOP NEWS
> Marchers attack French, U.N. troops in Ivory Coast [nL11661996]

BOUAKE, Ivory Coast - U.N. peacekeepers in Ivory Coast fired into the air and French soldiers blasted teargas to disperse stone-throwing demonstrators in the rebel-held town of Bouake on Monday, the French army and witnesses said.

- - - -

> Workers shut down Spain's Atlantic Copper plant [nL11536045]

MADRID - Striking workers shut down Atlantic Copper's smelting plant in Huelva, Spain, for the second time in three days on Monday with the latest of their programmed one-day strikes, company and union officials said.

- - - -

METALS
> Phelps Dodge to expand Cerro Verde mine in Peru [nWEN6661]

NEW YORK - Phelps Dodge Corp. (/PD.N) on Monday said it is planning an $850 million expansion to its Cerro Verde mine in Peru, which it expects to triple copper production at the mine.

- - - -

> China finds big lead-zine deposit in central Hunan [nPEK222996]

BEIJING - Chinese geologists have found a lead and zinc deposit with reserves estimated at 10 million tonnes in central Hunan province, the official Xinhua news agency reported on Monday.

- - - -

> UPDATE 1-India's NALCO completes aluminium smelter [nBM300911]

BOMBAY - India's state-run National Aluminium Company Ltd. said on Monday it had completed the first phase of an aluminium smelter expansion.

- - - -

> Spot alumina prices rise as China resumes buying [nHKG223798]

HONG KONG - Spot alumina prices to China have risen as Chinese buyers resume purchases after a week-long public holiday, traders said on Monday.

- - - -

> LME sees no change in stock reporting policy [nHAY137040]

LONDON - The London Metal Exchange (LME) has no plans to change its current warehouse stock reporting practice and will not issue details on off-warrant material, Neil Banks, exchange director of strategy, said on Monday.

- - - -

> Substitution to hit nickel, supply worry persists [nL1125014]

LONDON - High nickel prices could cause permanent damage to global demand due to increasing substitution, but ongoing concerns over future supply will keep the market volatile, CRU International said on Monday.

- - - -

> LME aluminium to average $1,760 in 2005-analyst [nL11654962]

LONDON - London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium prices will average around $1,760 a tonne (80 cents a lb) on expected firm fundamantals, analyst Adam Rowley of Macquarie Bank Ltd said on Monday.

- - - -

> Top performing tin seen strong again in 2005 [nL11671606]

LONDON - Tin, which has been the London Metal Exchange's (LME) best performer in the last three years, will continue to shine next year, analyst Peter Kettle of CRU International said on Monday.

- - - -

> Global zinc market seen in deficit in 2005 [nL11174955]

LONDON - The world zinc market will continue in deficit in 2005 due to strong demand, especially from China, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group said on Monday.

- - - -

> Strike ends at Wabush Mines after labor deal ratif [nWEN6656]

NEW YORK - Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (/CLF.N) said Monday a contract settlement at Wabush Mines in Canada was ratified by the United Steelworkers union.

- - - -

> Global lead market seen in deficit in '05 on China [nL11660892]

LONDON - The global refined lead market will remain in deficit in 2005 on steady demand for batteries, especially from China, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) said on Monday.

- - - -

> INTERVIEW-U.S. aluminum premiums forced up by shor [nL11642570]

LONDON -U.S. aluminium buyers are being forced to pay more as global demand outstrips supply by 750,000 tonnes this year and ships full of metal steam for China, the head of purchasing and sales for world leader Alcoa (/AA.N) said.

- - - -

GRAINS > Taiwan's MFIG to seek 56,000 T US corn on Tuesday [nTP218347]

TAIPEI - Taiwan's Members Feed Industry Group (MFIG) will tender for 56,000 tonnes of U.S. corn on Tuesday, a group official said on Monday.

- - - -

> UPDATE 2-EU says open to Russia, Ukraine talks on [nL1126774]

BRUSSELS/KIEV - The European Union is ready to discuss opening exclusive wheat import quotas for Russia and Ukraine for 2005, separate from their current arrangements, a European Commission official said on Monday.

- - - -

> Algeria not under pressure to buy market grains [nL11627198]

ALGIERS - Algeria, one of the world's largest cereals importers, has several months of stocks and is not under pressure to buy grains on the international market, Agriculture Minister Said Barkat said.

- - - -

> French grain trade seeks more China deals [nL11583223]

PARIS - France's wheat trade welcomed the first major export deal with China in years on Monday, but the amount was less than some hoped and more sales were needed to ease the country's big stockpile, traders and analysts said.

- - - -

COCOA/COFFEE/SUGAR
> Brazil's coffee belt set for beneficial wet week [nN11600160]

RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil, Oct 11 (Reuters)> - Widespread rain will fall on Brazil's southeastern coffee area this week, benefiting flowering of next year's crop, private meteorologists Somar forecast on Monday.

- - - -

> UPDATE 3-Ivory Coast's new cocoa price angers farm [nL11639289]

ABIDJAN - Ivory Coast set an indicative cocoa farmgate price of 390 CFA francs ($0.74) per kg on Monday for the start of the 2004/05 (Oct-Sept) season but farmers said it was too low and threatened to block exports.

11 Okt 2004 13:42

11.10.2004 12:20:35 Europe gold eases slightly, uptrend still intact

LONDON, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Gold backed down slightly in Europe on Monday morning after the market in Asia had failed to repeat last week's high of $423.70, but dealers were still bullish about further gains.

Dealers said that a firmer euro, high oil prices and general strength in other commodities could lure fresh investor cash into gold, sending prices up to new highs this week beyond the 15-year peak of $430.50 achieved in January.

Spot gold eased to $421.25/422.00 by 1002 GMT from $422.45/423.20 late in New York on Friday.

The market moved to its highest since early April on Friday as funds seized on a surging euro after weak U.S. jobs data cast doubt on the pace of monetary tightening there.

"There's been some light selling but things are looking fairly neutral after last week," one dealer said on Monday.

"The market is looking a little overbought but the commodities index is beginning to show that people are comfortable being long on gold," he added.

Soaring base and precious metals prices took the CRB Index of 17 commodity futures (.CRB) to a fresh 23 year high last Friday.

The euro was last at $1.2403, near Friday's high of $1.2433.

Oil prices stayed on the boil above $53 a barrel early on Monday, bolstered by persistent anxiety over OPEC member Nigeria and the nearly month-long loss of a quarter of U.S. Gulf of Mexico production.

Inflationary concerns sparked by the strong oil price have lured investors into bullion as a safe haven.

James Moore of TheBullionDesk.com said in a daily note that there was a risk of prices correcting lower due to speculators having extended their exposure on the New York COMEX gold futures market.

"The key however remains the $1.25 level in the euro, which with more dollar sensitive U.S. data out this week could be tested...with a drive higher indicating a test towards $430 and potentially the year's highs," he said.

Platinum firmed to $844.00/848.00, versus $841.00/845.00 in New York, while palladium slightly eased at $228.00/232.00 from $230.00/235.00.

Silver moved back slightly in line with gold to $7.24/7.27 compared with $7.25/7.28 in the U.S. market late on Friday.

11 Okt 2004 13:43

11.10.2004 13:15:47 Silver fixes up, Europe gold backs off peaks

* Silver fixed higher on Monday at 723.50 cents per ounce, compared with previous fix at 715.00 cents. Spot market dips slightly in line with gold to $7.22/7.25 per troy ounce by 1107 GMT from $7.25/7.28 in New York late on Friday.

* Silver forward rates on Reuters page indicated at 1.660, 1.675, 1.680 and 1.563 for one, three, six and 12 months respectively.

* Gold slips back in Europe to $421.20/421.90 per troy ounce by 1107 GMT, compared with $422.45/3.20 quoted late in New York on Friday.

* Market seen looking for further upward momentum after reaching six-month peak of $423.70 on Friday when a weaker than expected U.S. jobs report boosted the euro over $1.24.

* Euro last at $1.2393.

* Platinum firms to $844.00/848.00 from $841.00/845.00 previously.

* Palladium eases to $228.00/232.00 from $230.00/235.00.

08 Okt 2004 17:36

08.10.2004 17:09:26 UPDATE 1-Europe gold spikes to six month peak, eyes new highs

(writes through with quotes, details, prices)

By Veronica Brown

LONDON, Oct 8 (Reuters) - Gold shot to its highest since early April on Friday afternoon in Europe as funds seized on a surging euro after weak U.S. jobs data cast doubt on the pace of monetary tightening there, traders said.

With other commodities like base metals soaring, analysts said fresh investor cash could pump gold prices up to test new highs for this year beyond $430 per ounce.

Spot gold was at $422.65/423.40 by 1441 GMT after hitting a peak of $423.70 -- the highest since early April, when prices came within 10 cents of Janary's 15-year peak at $430.50.

Gold was at $417.80/418.55 late in New York on Thursday.

"We've had a bid tone to gold all week -- the market was looking for a catalyst to break through $420 and that was always going to be a weak jobs report," Barclays Capital analyst Kamal Naqvi told Reuters.

The euro jumped to top $1.2400 against the dollar after the U.S. government reported that businesses added 96,000 jobs to payrolls in September, well below Wall Street economists' forecasts for 148,000 new jobs.

Traders said the weak data supported expectations that the Federal Reserve would pause this year in its drive to lift interest rates, which would hurt the dollar and add gloss to gold.

"The euro rose to $1.24 so gold went up as expected. People will now be looking at whether the euro continues to run higher," a dealer said.

"Given that we're seeing other metals and energy commodities at the very least testing their highs for this year, or multi-decade or multi-year highs, its logical that the next target for gold would be the highs for this year," Naqvi added.

COMMODITIES SURGE
Soaring base and precious metals prices and near record energy costs on Friday extended a rally in the benchmark Reuters CRB Index of 17 commodity futures further into levels last seen in early 1981.

Base metals were led by copper prices, which surged to their highest in nearly 16 years as a potential strike at a unit of the world's largest producer lured in fresh buying.

Platinum was firmer at $840.00/845.00 from $838.50/843.50 quoted late on Thursday in New York.

Support was still coming from labour unrest at the world's two biggest platinum producers Angloplat (/AMSJ.J) and Implats (/IMPJ.J).

Angloplat said late on Thursday it was confident of a deal with unions to end a week-long dispute.

Also on Friday, independent research group Virtual metals said that platinum could push up to $1,000 an ounce over the next six to nine months as tight supply worsened.

Silver zipped up, encouraged by the gains in gold and base metals to $7.25/7.28 from $7.16/7.19, while palladium also firmed to $233.00/238.00 from $228.50/234.50.

08 Okt 2004 17:33

08.10.2004 17:07:51 Commodities News Summary

TOP NEWS
> UPDATE 1-Chile's Codelco Norte supervisors' union [nN08289540]

SANTIAGO, Chile - The supervisors' union at Codelco Norte, the largest division of the world's largest copper miner, went on strike early on Friday, a company spokesman told Reuters.

- - - -

> COMEX gold rises to 6-month high on weak US jobs d [nN08356802]

NEW YORK - COMEX gold futures rose to a fresh six-month high Friday morning as a less-than-expected gain in U.S. September payroll jobs undercut the dollar and boosted investment in the safe-haven metal.

- - - -

> UPDATE 3-Copper nears 16-yr peak, Chinese buyers b [nL08361468]

LONDON - World copper prices soared to their highest in nearly 16 years on Friday as a potential strike at a unit of the world's largest producer lured in fresh buying.

- - - -

> COMEX copper races up 16-year peak as funds buy [nN08518070]

NEW YORK - The December COMEX copper contract rose to a high dating back to 1988 at $1.4650 per lb on Thursday as funds bought heavily, brokers said.

- - - -

> Labour unrest haunts global metals sector [nL07182713]

LONDON - The global metals industry is heading for tougher labour negotiations in the coming years as contracts expire at a time of higher metals prices but rising costs, analysts said.

- - - -

> Metals boom: Brave new world or meltdown ahead? [nL05609810]

LONDON - China's industrial revolution and prospects for huge Indian growth have fueled what some analysts see as a long-term metals boom which investors ignore at their peril.

- - - -

METALS
> UPDATE 2-Alcoa smelter to restart; stock rises [nN08515246]

NEW YORK - Alcoa Inc. (/AA.N) workers at the idled Wenatchee, Washington, aluminum smelter voted to accept a labor agreement that opens the way for the facility to resume operations, the company said on Friday.

- - - -

> Alcan to sell ores, concentrate trading division [nWEN6638]

VANCOUVER, British Columbia - Alcan Inc. (/AL.TO) has reached an agreement to sell its ores and concentrates trading division to the unit's management team, the world's second biggest aluminum producer said on Friday without giving a price for the deal.

- - - -

> UPDATE 2-Gold Fields says challenging Q1 to preced [nL08094805]

JOHANNESBURG - South African gold miner Gold Fields Ltd (/GFIJ.J) said on Friday first quarter results to the end of September would be "challenging", but the following two quarters could see a strong improvement.

- - - -

> Morocco's Managem starts Niger's gold mine [nL08101276]

RABAT - Moroccan Managem (/MNG.CS) mining firm has started operating the new Samira Hill gold mine in Niger which can produce a total of 618,000 ounces (19.2 tonnes), a company senior manager said on Friday.

- - - -

GRAINS > EU's Kyprianou signals little change in GMO policy [nL08203083]

BRUSSELS - The European Commission will treat approval requests for new genetically modified (GMO) foods based on science, the next EU food safety chief said on Friday, signalling that existing GMO policy is unlikely to change.

- - - -

> UPDATE 1-Japan wants more info before easing U.S. [nT188054]

TOKYO - Japan's Agriculture Ministry, considering conditions to resume U.S. beef imports, said on Friday it needs more information on how to tell the age of American cattle, as a U.S. explanation was insufficient.

- - - -

> UPDATE 1-Bulgaria exports 25,200 T wheat to Tunisi [nL08121900]

SOFIA - Bulgaria will export 25,200 tonnes of milling wheat to Tunisia via the Black Sea port of Varna next week from its abundant 3.8-million wheat harvest this year, a port official said on Friday.

- - - -

COCOA/COFFEE/SUGAR
> EU's former colonies slam sugar reform plan [nL08437135]

BRUSSELS - A group of Europe's former colonies lambasted proposals to reform the EU's 35-year-old sugar regime on Friday, saying the plans violated international treaty obligations and would cause huge socio-economic damage.

- - - -

> UPDATE 1-Mauritius cuts 2004 sugar production fore [nL08536226]

PORT LOUIS - Mauritius cut its 2004 sugar production forecast to 575,000 tonnes from an initial forecast of 590,000 due to poor weather, the Mauritius Chamber of Agriculture said on Friday.

- - - -

> East Africa poised to lead in specialty coffees [n]

ENTEBBE, Uganda - Small-scale farmers in East Africa are perfectly placed to exploit rapidly growing global demand for specialty coffees, a major conference of organic coffee farmers, exporters and roasters heard on Friday.

- - - -

> EU tender saw 68 bids for 314,500 T white sugar [nL08305306]

BRUSSELS - The EU's regular export tender attracted 68 bids for 314,500 tonnes of current series white sugar, member state officials said on Friday.

- - - -

> India seen big sugar importer two more seasons-ISO [nL0886829]

LONDON - India, the world's biggest sugar consumer, will likely remain a large scale importer for at least two seasons to come, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) said.

- - - -

08 Okt 2004 09:57

08.10.2004 09:53:40 TECHNICALS-Copper needs to confirm peaks on closing basis

--------------------------------------------------------------

3 MTH KERB CLOSE * SUPPORT * RESIST * RSI14 * MA10 * MA30
COPPER 3,046 * 2,994 * 3,100 * 83.2 * 2,999 * 2,865
ALUMINIUM 1,850 * 1,820 * 1,925 * 70.5 * 1,830 * 1,754
--------------- VIEWS FROM THE MARKET - Oct 8 ---------------

LONDON, Oct 8 (Reuters) - London Metal Exchange copper still needs to close above January 1995 highs in order to target peaks dating back to early 1989 above $3,100, traders and analysts said on Friday.

Copper flew higher in early trade as Chinese traders returned from a near week-long holiday eager to buy, while news that a unit of the world's largest copper producer was set to strike added fuel to the fire.

"The Chinese came back this morning and they started to buy all the way up to $3,085 a tonne, taking us up to new historical highs," a German trader said.

So far on Friday, three months copper has peaked at $3,087.50 a tonne.

Some analysts were becoming wary of copper's latest thrust higher, especially given the importance of key U.S. September payrolls data due out at 1230 GMT.

"In an environment where most are short dollar and long commodities, a strong payroll result could generate a very strong trading reaction," Martin Fewings, metals analyst with Mitsui Bussan, said in a daily report.

COPPER - Expected to post further gains despite overbought indicators, but needs to close above Jan 1995 peak in order to maintain rally.

"The RSI has pushed further into overbought territory, suggesting that we may see a period of consolidation or a corrective move," Angus MacMillan, metals strategist with Prudential Bache, said in a daily note.

But he noted that diverging short-term moving averages pointed to further gains.

"Technically, a close above $3,055 is needed to maintain upside momentum and provide a platform for further forays towards $3,100 and above," Robin Bhar of Standard Bank London said in a report.

Overnight news that Chile's Codelco Norte unit had failed to settle a contract dispute by a Thursday deadline with a union, setting the stage for a strike, was also supportive.

Workers at Atlantic Copper in Sapin, owned by Freeport McMoRan Copper and Gold (/FCX.N) have also been on strike this week.

Another strike was also looming at Southern Peru Copper Corp (SPCC), after the failure of talks designed to avert further industrial action this month after a 13-day strike in September.

By 0736 GMT three months copper was up $29 at $3,075/3,080.

ALUMINIUM - Similar to copper, needs to close above $1,850 to maintain upside momentum and attract further speculative buying.

MacMillan said further gain would target $1,875/80, then $1,895/1,900.

JP Morgan said in a daily metals technical report that it expected the rally to continue toward $1,895/1,920, but reject the high.

"A subsequent breakdown through $1,780/70 will confirma that a medium-term top is in place."

Bhar said the trend remained positive but he did not expect the straight-line advance to be sustained for much longer.

By 0741 GMT three months aluminium was up $10 at $1,860/1,863, but had so far failed to top Thursday's fresh nine-year peak at $1,877.

Bei Gold gehts langsam in die überhitzte Zone (Bullish Consensus:80!)

07 Okt 2004 21:23

07.10.2004 21:20:10 TECHNICALS - COMEX/NYMEX metals technical indicators

GOLD SILVER PLATINUM PALLADIUM COPPER
DEC DEC JAN DEC DEC

Close Oct. 07 $419.50 $7.217 $828.30 $233.45 $142.75
High 421.70 7.300 850.50 236.00 *143.85
Low 418.80 7.165 837.00 226.50 141.95

5-DAY M.A. 419.20 7.054 842.50 225.17 141.07
20-DAY M.A. 412.10 6.575 844.40 217.44 135.28
50-DAY M.A. 406.80 6.631 842.90 217.04 129.96

9-DAY R.S.I. 63.77 78.46 42.33 75.57 86.02
14-DAY R.S.I. 64.44 76.94 44.69 71.62 82.52

Note: Data calculated from previous close. Previous high and low include ACCESS trading from previous session. Indicators are based on the time periods recommended by their developers or commonly used by technical analysts. Moving averages are simple moving averages. RSI formulas include a smoothing factor utilizing an exponential moving average (EMA), determined to be the industry standard. All calculations can be made using Reuter Graphics or Reuter Technical Analysis products.

Contract High 436.50 8.480 908.00 345.00 *143.85
Contract Low 290.00 4.440 759.00 203.50 74.20
First Notice Day Nov 30 Nov 30 Jan 01 Dec 01 Nov 30
Expiry Date Dec 29 Dec 29 Jan 26 Dec 27 Dec 29

BULLISH CONSENSUS ON October 05: 24 Month Range
Low Hi
Gold 80 from 77 on September 28 13 - 91
Silver 64 from 54 on September 28 13 - 89
Platinum 65 from 71 on September 28 14 - 95
Copper 84 from 81 on September 28 08 - 88

* Bullish Consensus, Copyrighted, Market Vane Corporation, P.O. Box 90490, Pasadena, CA 91109-0490. Phone +1 626 395 7436. The survey expresses a percentage of bullish sentiment among analysts and advisors. The company said 50 percent is considered support in a bull market and resistance in a bear market. Data are most recent available.

For prices, double click on: -2

For related news, double click on: [GOL] [MTL] [MET] [MIN] [GOL/X] [PLA/] [COP/X] [MINT] ["DLA"]

For updated CFTC Commitment of Traders report, double click on for the latest week's data and for the previous week's data. Futures/options data is on and .

07 Okt 2004 17:45

07.10.2004 17:44:19 Commodities News Summary

TOP NEWS
> UPDATE 3-Copper near 10-year peaks, spurs metals r [nL07665103]

LONDON - World copper prices neared 10-year highs on Thursday, driving other metals towards new peaks, as funds lured by supply shortages and hopes of increased demand poured fresh money into the London market.

- - - -

> UPDATE 1-INTERVIEW-India bought up to 200,000 t ra [nL07489290]

LONDON - Indian millers bought 150,000 to 200,000 tonnes of October/November delivery Brazilian raw sugar in the past month, said Vinay Kumar, managing director of India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd.

- - - -

> LME breaks metals mould with plastics [nL06652344]

LONDON - The London Metal Exchange (LME) will trade plastics futures next year, optimistic that these markets will find a natural home in an exchange which has traded metals contracts for more than a century.

- - - -

> Europe gold nudges higher at close, eyes oil, dlr [nL07669347]

* Spot gold pushes up slightly to end in Europe at $418.30/419.05 by 1515 GMT, compared with $417.75/418.50 quoted late in New York on Wednesday.

- - - -

> Profit taking caps strong LME price rises [nL0789700]
* Base metals remain steady in first afternoon trading rings.
* Prices lifted by fund buying but profit taking caps firmer
advances.

- - - -

METALS
> Top Turk court rejects Newmont (/NEM.N) appeal [nL07549912]

IZMIR, Turkey - Turkey's top administrative court on Thursday rejected an appeal by U.S. company Newmont Mining Corp (/NEM.N) to reopen a gold mine it operates, which local residents say harms the environment.

- - - -

> Russia No.3 copper producer 9-mth o'put 94,500T [nL07198273]

YEKATERINBURG, Russia - The Russian Copper Company, the country's third largest producer of the metal, refined 94,500 tonnes of cathode copper in the first nine months of 2004, the company's spokesman said on Thursday.

- - - -

> UPDATE 1-INSG sees '05 world nickel output up, bal [nL07141425]

AMSTERDAM - The world primary nickel production is set to increase next year, fully covering an expected rise in global consumption compared with a deficit this year, the International Nickel Study Group forecast on Thursday.

- - - -

> UPDATE 1-Union seals Northam wage pact, hopeful on [nL07425157]

JOHANNESBURG - A South African union said it had sealed a wage pact with small platinum producer Northam (/NHMJ.J) and saw good chances for a deal later on Thursday to end a week-long strike against the world's biggest platinum producer Angloplat (/AMSJ.J).

- - - -

> UPDATE 1-Japan buys 125,000 tonnes wheat at tender [nT157874]

TOKYO - Japan's Agriculture Ministry said on Thursday it had bought 125,000 tonnes of milling wheat from the United States and Canada at a weekly tender.

- - - -

GRAINS > UPDATE 1-Egypt's GASC says buys 110,000 T U.S. whe [nL07529720]

CAIRO - Egypt's main official wheat buyer said on Thursday he had bought 110,000 tonnes of U.S. hard red winter wheat for Nov.16-30 shipment.

- - - -

> U.S. exporters sell 115,000 tonnes corn to unknown [nWAT001945]

WASHINGTON - Private exporters reported the sale of 115,000 tonnes of corn to unknown destinations for the 2004/05 marketing year, the U.S. Agriculture Department said on Thursday.

The marketing year for corn began on Sept. 1.

- - - -

> UPDATE 2-Australia sells 1 mln tonnes of wheat to [nSYD62437]

SYDNEY - Australia's monopoly wheat exporter AWB Ltd. (/AWB.AX) said on Thursday it had signed a contract to sell 1 million tonnes of wheat to Iraq.

- - - -

> UPDATE 1-S.Korea seeks 100,000 tonnes rice for Nor [nSEO199442]

SEOUL - South Korea's Agricultural and Fishery Marketing Corporation (AFMC) has issued a tender to buy 100,000 tonnes of non-glutinous long-grain white rice, an AFMC official said.

- - - -

COCOA/COFFEE/SUGAR > UN policy sours Third World sugar exporters-lobby [nL07647355]

OSLO - A U.N. drive to cut sugar consumption and obesity in the West while funding sugar production in the Third World is damaging to poor nations, a lobby group said on Thursday.

- - - -

> EU sells 105,250 T white sugar at tender - trade [nEUSUG1]

LONDON - The European Union sold 105,250 tonnes of white sugar at a maximum rebate of 45.375 euros per 100 kg at Thursday's tender, traders said.

- - - -

> Florida's citrus crop to take hard hit from hurric [nN07331111]

NEW YORK - Florida's citrus crop took a severe beating from the hurricanes that raked the Sunshine State recently, said analysts on Tuesday in forecasting what a federal government report due out next week has in store for the state's $9.1 billion citrus industry.

- - - -

> False claims "erode confidence in organic coffee" [nL07379131]

ENTEBBE, Uganda - Most consumers in rich nations are attracted to organic and fair trade products but are put off by a baffling array of categories and sometimes fraudulent product claims, a coffee conference was told.

- - - -

> German 3rd-qtr cocoa grind up 10.6 percent [nL07627881]

HAMBURG - Germany's third-quarter 2004 cocoa grind rose 10.6 percent on the year to 59,987 tonnes, confectionery industry association BDSI said on Thursday.

© Reuters 2004

Die deutschen Meldungen zum Goldpreis kommen gewohnt dümmlich daher:

07 Okt 2004 17:36

07.10.2004 16:56:33 Gold scheitert am Widerstand bei 420 Dollar

London, 07. Okt (Reuters) - Gold hat sich am Donnerstag trotz eines Allzeithochs beim Ölpreis kaum verändert gezeigt. Nach dem Scheitern am technischen Widerstand bei 420 Dollar sahen Händler das gelbe Metall zunächst im Abwärtstrend. In Europa stieg Gold im Verlauf bis auf 419,80 Dollar per Feinunze und fiel dann zum Handelsende auf 417,15/417,90 Dollar wieder etwas unter den Vorabendstand von 418,80/419,30 Dollar. In London erfolge das Fixing am Nachmittag bei 418,10 Dollar nach 417,90 Dollar am Vormittag und 418,45 Dollar am Mittwochnachmittag.

Ein hoher Ölpreis schürt generell Sorgen vor einer Geldentwertung und kann bei Anlegern eine verstärkte Bewegung zu Gold als Inflationsschutz auslösen.

Der Goldkurs könne bis auf 414 Dollar zurück fallen, sagte ein Händler. Dies sei nach dem Anstossen bei der Marke von 420 Dollar wohl der faire Wert. Der allgemeine Trend nach oben sei für das Edelmetall aber noch intakt. Es gebe noch Potenzial für eine Rally bis auf 430 Dollar, hiess es am Markt.

Eine Schweizer Grossbank gab den Gold-Kilopreis mit 16.845/17.095 (16.903/17.153) sfr an.

ish/och

07 Okt 2004 16:10

07.10.2004 16:07:21 Early COMEX gold moves in circles before jobs data

NEW YORK, Oct 7 (Reuters) - Gold futures were listless Thursday morning, consolidating little changed near six-month highs as traders kept their powder dry for Friday's September U.S. employment data, the key economic report of the month.

Gold dipped at the open on news of a drop of 37,000 in claims for unemployment benefits last week, which shored up the dollar from overnight slippage, and perhaps foreshadowed a good payrolls number Friday.

"We're churning water here," said a floor broker. "We're not attracting any new buying in the market right now. If you're not in the market, what are you going do at these levels?"

At 9:18 a.m. EDT, December gold was up 20 cents at $420.20 a ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division, trading in a narrow $419.00-$421.70 range.

On Wednesday, the contract hit $422.20, the highest price since April 13, when it was retreating from 16-year highs on the first of that month.

The COMEX broker said floor players were putting scale-up sell orders above the market and waiting. "If the market goes to them, that's it. It could be touch-and-go here today."

Economists polled by Reuters expect the government to report Friday that nonfarm payrolls had risen by 148,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate remained steady at 5.4 percent.

The report will be the last snapshot of how the labor market is faring before the Nov 2. presidential elections. The political uncertainty has unsettled financial markets.

With the dollar struggling, stock markets moving sideways, oil above $52 a barrel and Iraq looking like a quagmire for the United States, investors have sprinkled gold in their portfolios as risk insurance.

Hedge funds and other speculators also played from the long side in precious metals.

"Volatility in the currencies and price gains in the other commodity markets continue to keep the precious metal in an active mood," wrote James Moore of theBullionDesk.com.

"Gold seems comfortable trading around its current levels and still has the potential to move higher, with $430 set to become the next target once $425 is cleared," he wrote. "For now, I think, we are waiting for the dollar movements created by Friday's data."

Spot gold fetched $418.25/9.00, up from the close at $417.75/8.50. London's morning fix was $417.90.

December silver was 1.5 cent firmer at $7.26 an ounce, after reaching its highest price since April 19 at $7.30 from a low of $7.18.

Silver has risen 20 percent since bottoming at $6.07 on Sept. 13. The market is much less liquid than gold and speculators can move prices more easily.

Spot silver was flat at $7.20/23. It fixed at $7.13.

January platinum was off $1.30 at $844.50 an ounce. Spot was last quoted at $841.00/846.00.

December palladium was up $7.50 at $235 an ounce. Spot palladium last traded at $229.00/234.00.

© Reuters 2004

07 Okt 2004 14:37

07.10.2004 14:30:43 US jobless claims drop last week despite hurricane

WASHINGTON, Oct 7 (Reuters) - The number of people filing for initial U.S. jobless aid fell 37,000 last week despite continued elevated claims in Southeast states struck by a rash of hurricanes, the government said on Thursday.

Initial jobless claims fell to 335,000 last week from a revised 372,000 in the prior week, the Labor Department said, and well below economists' forecast for a drop to 350,000 from the originally reported 369,000 in the week ended Sept. 25.

The closely watched four-week moving average, which irons out week-to-week volatility, rose for the fourth straight week, climbing to 348,500 in the week ended Oct. 2 from 344,250 in the previous week.

The moving average rose to its highest since 355,500 in the week ended Feb. 28.

There were no special factors to explain the overall drop in new claims, but Florida and other Southern states hit by a rash of hurricanes reported high levels of claims, a Labor Department spokesman said.

Hurricane Jeanne, which made landfall on Sept. 25, was the fourth severe storm to strike Florida in six weeks.

The number of people continuing to seek claims fell
1,000 to 2.86 million in the week ended Sept. 25, the latest
week for which data are available, and the lowest since 2.79
million in the week ended July 10.

© Reuters 2004

07 Okt 2004 10:15

07.10.2004 09:58:33 TECHNICALS-Gold seen holding ahead of U.S. data

---------------------------------------------------------------

SPOT NY CLOSE * SUPPORT * RESIST * RSI14 * MA10 * MA30
GOLD 417.75/8.50 * 414.00 * 421.00 * 68.9 * 414.58 * 407.68
SILVER 7.20/7.23 * 7.00 * 7.35 * 81.5 * 6.80 * 6.52
PLAT 841.50/6.50 * 825.00 * 875.00 * 50.2 * 848.95 * 847.77
----------------- VIEWS FROM THE MARKET - Oct 7 ---------------

LONDON, Oct 7 (Reuters) - Gold looks set to remain in a $414-420 an ounce range on Thursday as traders await U.S. jobs data at the end of the week.

The market would remain supported by any dollar weakness, while fresh record high oil prices above $52 a barrel were also supportive.

"Though the uptrend is intact, market players are likely to wait for tomorrow's U.S. payroll data for the next direction," Alexander Zumpfe of Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein said in a daily report.

Standard Bank London said a breach of the upper end of the trading range during New York hours could be possible if oil continued to go up.

The euro had firmed to $1.2307/10 by 0736 GMT, up from around $1.2290 in late U.S. trade.

Financial markets were all awaiting Friday's U.S. September non-farm payrolls report, which was expected to show 148,000 new jobs, versus the 144,000 added in August.

GOLD - Range-bound, with bias to the upside.

"While the downside is unlikely to be tested as long as oil remains firm, a break through to the upside might bring a test of the next resistance levels at $423 and $425," Zumpfe said.

ScotiaMocatta expected further selling to emerge at initial $420 resistance.

At 0740 GMT spot gold moved up to $419.00/419.75 from New York's late quote on Wednesday of $417.75/418.50.

SILVER - Seen continuing upside assault given firm tone in gold, high oil prices and buoyant base metals.

First resistance pegged at previous day's near-six-month high of $7.21, followed by $7.25 and then $7.35.

Silver peaked in early April at $8.43.

Standard Bank said in its report that the $8 target was well within silver's sights.

At 0745 GMT spot silver had edged up one cent to $7.21/7.24.

PLATINUM - Seen continuing slow but steady recovery after a sharp fall earlier in the week towards $820.

Zumpfe expected the metal to hold in a $840-855 range on Thursday, noting platinum had run into selling at $850 in Asian markets earlier.

At 0747 GMT spot platinum was quoted firmer at $846.00/851.00, versus New York's previous $841.50/846.50.

07 Okt 2004 10:17

07.10.2004 10:10:19 Tokyo gold softer but still bullish; silver surges

TOKYO, Oct 7 (Reuters) - Tokyo gold futures backed off slightly from a 12-year high on Thursday after the spot dollar-based price drifted down on the strength of the greenback, but the underlying trend for the metal stayed bullish.

Yen-based silver futures traded on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) surged by their daily 7 yen limit in most contracts for the second day in a row as the metal benefited from the bullish gold and oil prices, traders said.

"Gold failed to gain on strong oil, which was offset by the strength of the dollar, but sentiment is bullish," said Chen Chaur-Shi, vice president at Nihon Unicom's research section.

Chen said bullish oil should keep gold as a hedge against inflation, with fears growing given a surge in the Reuters CRB Index (.CRB), a basket of 17 commodity futures tracked closely by investors, to a fresh 23-year high on Wednesday

The benchmark August TOCOM gold contract closed 3 yen lower at 1,499 yen per gram. It hit a 12-year high of 1,503 yen on Wednesday.

Other contracts closed down 1 to 6 yen.

At 0735 GMT, spot gold was quoted at $419.25/$420.00 per ounce against $417.75/8.50 in New York on Wednesday.

Key August silver futures closed at 253.9 yen per 10 grams. They have gained more than 8 percent from a week ago.

Traders said low liquidity in TOCOM silver could have exaggerated the upswing, although underlying sentiment was bullish in line with gold.

Crude oil rose to a fresh record high of $52.43 a barrel in ACCESS electronic trading in late Asian trade on a lower than anticipated increase in U.S. crude supplies and a draw in heating oil stocks ahead of the winter.

The dollar's strength put some pressure on the spot precious metals price, which weighed on TOCOM prices.

The market wants to see U.S. jobs data to help determine the outlook for the dollar as a clue for gold and other precious metals, traders said.

The non-farm payrolls report for September is expected to show 148,000 new U.S. jobs, versus the 144,000 added in August.

The dollar edged lower to $1.2301/04 against the euro , from late U.S. level.

The greenback also eased to 111.16/22 yen .

TOCOM platinum futures were unchanged to slightly firmer as the world's two biggest platinum producers in South Africa have been on strike since last week, but the market was careful about chasing it actively, traders said.

Key platinum August futures closed unchanged at 2,935 yen per gram.

Below are closing prices for TOCOM's most active precious metals contracts, with the day's turnover for each metal.

Closing prices are in yen per gram except for silver, which is in yen per 10 grams:

06 Okt 2004 20:37

06.10.2004 17:15:08 Commodities News Summary

TOP NEWS
> LME aluminium sets 9-year high on fund buying [nL06634763]

LONDON - Aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) jumped above $1,860 a tonne, the highest since August 1995, on fund buying, traders said on Wednesday. At 1247 GMT, LME three month aluminium was trading at $1,863/64 a tonne, up $30 from the previous day's late kerb close of $1,833.

- - - -

> NY copper surges to 9-3/4-year high on fund buying [nN06390115]

NEW YORK - Copper futures charged up to highs dating back to January 1995 on Wednesday, on a strong demand outlook at the same time supplies are declining and further threatened by labor strikes, traders said.

A drop in already low exchange warehouse inventories coupled with the possibility of strikes at two separate copper facilities, acted as catalysts to buy copper.

- - - -

METALS
> LME lead prices hit contract high on fund buying [nL06468614]

LONDON - Lead on the London Metal Exchange (LME) jumped above $950 a tonne, the highest since it was denominated in dollars in the early 1990s, on fund buying, traders said Wednesday. At 1230 GMT, LME three month lead was trading at $950/51 a tonne, up from the previous day's late kerb close of $925.

- - - -

GRAINS/LIVESTOCK
> EU farm union calls for bloc-wide GMO crop rules [nL06643095]

BRUSSELS - Europe needs hard-and-fast rules on how to separate biotech, organic and traditional crops instead of a string of national laws that are tailored to local conditions, EU farmers' organisation COPA said on Wednesday.

- - - -

> Winter outlook mixed for US as El Nino looms [nN06364841]

WASHINGTON - Warmer than normal temperatures are forecast to blanket the western United States and Plains states this winter, but it is unclear whether the Northeast and Midwest will face warmer, colder or normal winter weather, U.S. government forecasters said on Wednesday.

- - - -

> Pakistan may import extra one mln tonnes wheat [nISL103130]

KARACHI - Pakistan may import another one million tonnes of wheat to maintain strategic reserves, Pakistani Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz was quoted as saying on Wednesday.

The official APP news agency said Aziz made the remarks while presiding over a meeting of the cabinet's Economic Coordination Committee, Pakistan's top economic decision-making body.

- - - -

COCOA/COFFEE/SUGAR > Physical sugar-Indians shop for raws, breather see [nEUSUG2]

LONDON - Indian buyers sought raw sugar aggressively this week and are set to buy more to compensate for a dismal crop and falling stocks, but they may pause in the face of rising prices, European traders said on Wednesday.

- - - -

> Row over certification hinders organic coffee boom [nL06041342]

ENTEBBE, Uganda - Western demand for organic coffee is growing fast, but the industry is being held back by wrangles over who should pay for the costly process of certifying beans, farmers and buyers were told on Wednesday.

06 Okt 2004 20:38

06.10.2004 20:33:49 COMEX gold ends near flat, consolidates gains

NEW YORK, Oct 6 (Reuters) - COMEX gold settled little changed on Wednesday, capped after hitting a six-month high overnight by a firmer dollar and by profit-taking after a one-month gain of better than 6 percent.

Traders said the overbought market was reluctant to keep buying before Friday's important September U.S. employment report.

"People are exceedingly aware that it's coming out and that it is four weeks before the election and are concerned that perhaps there will be a very good figure," said Graham Leighton, a precious metals vice president at Societe Generale.

December gold hit $422.20 an ounce in ACCESS electronic trade overnight, besting Friday's $421.90 peak. It was the highest price for the contract since April 13, when it was retreating from 15-year highs on the first of that month.

The contract closed up 20 cents at $420.00, after bottoming at $417.50 in open-outcry trade.

Investment funds and traders have April's $436.50 peak for the December contract in the cross hairs. Bulls are counting on continued weakness in the dollar, record high oil prices and geopolitical tensions before the November U.S. presidential elections to keep gold in favor as a safe haven.

"There is not that much selling over the market," a COMEX broker said. "Everybody is looking at the crude. People are getting convinced here that you can't sell it, so you're getting some added buying inside here. We're just asking ourselves: 'Where is this thing going to go?'"

The net speculative long position in futures is getting huge again. But traders said this week that funds have room to keep buying before they reach the extremely overextended situation seen during the run to the 2004 highs.

"Open interest is exceedingly large and the number of spec longs is more than it's been for six months," Leighton said. "They are nervous that we're close to the highs for the year coming into these (jobs) numbers."

Spot closed at $417.75/8.50, just off Tuesday's $418.00/8.75. London's afternoon fix was $418.45.

December silver went up 14.3 cents to $7.245 an ounce, reaching its highest price since April 19 at $7.28, up from a low of $7.08. It extended Tuesday's 5-percent breakout rally. Dealers said speculators saw silver as a technical buy, being far less overbought than gold.

Spot silver rose to $7.20/23 from $7.05/08 at the previous close. The fix was at $7.15.

NYMEX January platinum went up $6.60 to $845.80 an ounce. Spot was last quoted at $841.50/846.50.

December palladium was $2.55 firmer at $227.50 an ounce. Spot palladium last traded at $221.00/227.00.

06 Okt 2004 12:05

06.10.2004 11:59:41 Base metals drift within range, seen hesitant

LONDON, Oct 6 (Reuters) - Base metals prices were mixed during Wednesday's pre-market on the London Metal Exchange (LME), ahead of what was expected to be a routine options declaration, traders said.

Copper had a brief spurt higher in early trade, regaining the $3,000/T level, before dipping back, while aluminium struggled to make headway due to overhead trade selling.

"There's really no need to move the market (for options declaration) as all the big ones are already in-the-money," one trader said.

Robin Bhar, metals analyst with Standard Bank, said it was surprising options activity had not picked up as the market emerged out of the slow summer period, tight supply and a bullish price outlook.

"Calls continue to outweigh puts by a factor of 1.7 times, surggesting tha market participants are still bullish," he said in a report.

Copper was $12 firmer at $3,000/05, with liquidity still affected by the absence of Chinese traders due to a national holiday there.

Several traders and analysts felt the red metal was preparing for another attack on March's 8-3/4 year high around $3,050. But it would first have to punch through tough resistance at $3,020.

"Price action would suggest that we are in for a big move away from current levels very soon. Forward producer selling is capping any rally at the moment," LME broker IFX said in a report.

Others were less convinced.

"It might have another push, in thin volume. Personally I think they (funds) have already taken it far enough. It's the beginning of a new quarter, but they have already thrown a lot of money at it," the trader said.

"But there are a lot of people sitting there waiting for higher prices and if we don't get them, they'll throw in the towel and start to reduce their positions."

Copper remains supported by a tight supply situation, reflected in a ballooning cash/threes backwardation, which moved out to $133/145 on Wednesday, versus $124 at the start of the week.

Aluminium crept into the plus column to trade just $2 firmer at $1,835/38 a tonne.

Traders expected it to remain in a $1,815-45 trading range for now, but analysts said it would need to close above the upper end of that to engender more substantial gains.

"Timing is right for fresh highs for LME week, although a higher copper price will be required," IFX said.

Nickel gained $100 to $15,700/15,800 a tonne, while tin lost $30 to $9,020/89.

Lead was quoted at $930/35 from $925, while zinc gained $14 to $1,136/40.

06 Okt 2004 10:11

06.10.2004 09:57:37 TECHNICALS-Gold seen in narrow range, eyes dollar

---------------------------------------------------------------

SPOT NY CLOSE * SUPPORT * RESIST * RSI14 * MA10 * MA30
GOLD 418.00/8.75 * 414.00 * 421.00 * 68.2 * 413.73 * 407.29
SILVER 7.05/7.08 * 6.94 * 7.15 * 78.1 * 6.71 * 6.49
PLAT 837.00/2.00 * 825.00 * 875.00 * 49.4 * 849.15 * 848.00
----------------- VIEWS FROM THE MARKET - Oct 6 ---------------

LONDON, Oct 6 (Reuters) - Gold could make further progress towards $420/25, traders said on Wednesday, although they did not expect this to happen during European trading hours.

Spot gold began to firm overnight in New York, aided by oil scoring fresh record highs above $51. The Japanese market followed suit, taking the metal to a near six-month high of $420.20.

But selling emerged in early European trade, knocking gold back down to almost unchanged.

"Europe is playing it much more on the sell-side. It's the same pattern we've seen over the past few days," one trader said.

He did not think gold had much of a chance of moving back above $420 until New York's market, which has much greater speculative activity, opened later in the day.

Oil prices were holding firm around $51 a barrel on Wednesday.

"I wouldn't rule out a move back above $420 though profit- taking is currently coming in. I guess the market is now waiting for today's oil inventory data," another trader said.

"Should oil continue to strengthen, I could imagine that $420 and higher will see a comeback."

Inventories of winter fuels in the U.S. are due to be released at 1430 GMT, with analysts expecting a decline.

The euro was little changed from the previous session, with many dealers reluctant to take on large positions ahead of September U.S. jobs data at the end of the week,

GOLD - Seen with potential to add to recent gains, but faces tough resistance at $420.

"Expect further selling in front of $420, however a break above should lead to a test of $422.50 with potential to see $425.00," ScotiaMocatta said in a report.

A relative strength index in the low 60's suggested there was still plenty of room for prices to rise before the market become overbought, ScotiaMocatta added.

At 0739 GMT spot gold was quoted little changed at $418.35/418.85, from New York's late quote on Tuesday of $418.00/418.75.

SILVER - Could add to overnight gains that took silver back above $7.00/oz to its highest since mid-April.

"Expect support from (Monday's) low $6.67 to $6.65, although a convincing break will encourage further selling with a goal of $6.51," ScotiaMocatta said.

At 0740 GMT spot silver was similarly stagnant at $7.04/7.07 from $7.05/7.08.

PLATINUM - Seems to be forming a bottom in the mid-820s area.

"The overall firm precious metals complex is likely to support platinum as well and we forecast the metal to hold within a broad 834-855 range," Alexander Zumpfe of Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein said in a report.

But HSBC's Alan Williamson was less optimistic and thought platinum could come under even more pressure when ongoing strikes in main producer South Africa end.

"Selling the rallies in platinum looks a reasonable short-term strategy, we believe."

At 0715 GMT spot platinum was quoted firmer at $844.00/849.00, versus New York's previous $837.00/842.00.

@hpoth

Wenn das immer so funktioniert kannst Du das jedes mal so machen!

Gruss
GC