Rohstoffnews

29 Sep 2004 16:49

29.09.2004 16:48:44 UPDATE 5-Oil falls from $50 as US crude stocks swell

(Adds U.S. inventory report, updates prices)

LONDON, Sept 29 (Reuters) - Oil prices dropped from record highs above $50 a barrel on Wednesday as weekly U.S. inventory data showed a surprise increase in crude stocks, easing fears over stretched international supplies.

New York crude futures fell 80 cents to $49.10 a barrel following Tuesday's surge to a record $50.47. London Brent dropped 75 cents to $45.70 a barrel.

Prices tumbled after U.S. government stockpile data showed U.S. commercial crude oil inventories swelling by 3.4 million million barrels last week to 272.9 million -- the first rise in nine weeks.

Analysts on average had expected a draw of 3.8 million barrels, as companies struggled to recover production on the Gulf of Mexico and the offloading of imports on the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port in the wake of Hurricane Ivan.

"That's very bearish," said Ed Silliere of Energy Merchant Corp. "The imports are higher than we anticipated."

Fears over stretched global supplies were underlined this week when rebels seeking autonomy in Nigeria said they would declare war in the oil-rich Niger delta, home to most of the country's 2.3 million barrels per day output.

Rebel leader Mujahid Dokubo-Asari was in the Nigerian capital Abuja on Wednesday for talks with President Olusegun Obasanjo.

Asari told Reuters that his militia's offensive, due to be launched on Friday, would be suspended if an agreement was reached on self-determination and resource control for the vast delta region.

While a government agreement on those terms is highly improbable, the move to hold peace talks was being read in oil markets as a positive signal.

Oil companies have ignored Asari's instruction to leave the delta, but stepped up security in the vast area of mangrove swamps and creeks. So far only a small volume of oil output has been closed.

"We suspect that the oil price will soon push to $52-$53 a barrel, and possibly higher depending on whether trouble does develop in Nigeria and/or renewed attacks on pipelines in southern Iraq," said David Thurtell at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Economic powers are putting a brave face on the impact of high prices, saying there is little evidence yet of harm to the strong growth that has fuelled this year's rise in world energy demand.

"The oil price is very high these days, but we have not seen that it has great effect on the world economy yet," German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder said.

Average U.S. prices for the year so far of $39 a barrel, adjusted for inflation are near those of the Arab oil embargo in 1973-1974. But they remain much lower than the record $80-a-barrel annual average high following the 1979 Iranian revolution.

Tuesday's move above $50 prompted top OPEC exporter Saudi Arabia to announce it would boost its official production capacity by 500,000 bpd, to 11 million bpd.

The new capacity is not expected to make any immediate impact on actual production with Riyadh already having said it would meet demand for 9.5 million bpd this month and next.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which controls more than half of global crude exports, is already producing at its highest rate since the late 1970s.

© Reuters 2004

29 Sep 2004 16:53

29.09.2004 16:51:14 Gold steigt im Handelsverlauf auf über 414 Dollar

London, 29. Sep (Reuters) - Der Goldkurs hat am Mittwoch mit 414,15 Dollar dank eines zur US-Währung gestiegenen Euro den höchsten Stand seit Mitte April diesen Jahres erreicht.

Nach einer einsetzenden leichten Erholung des Dollar setzten bei Fonds dann allerdings Kaufstopps ein, so Händler. Mit wieder etwas entspannteren Ölpreisen und einer nachlassenden Nachfrage nach Gold als Inflationsschutz stand die Entwicklung am Devisenmarkt im Vordergrund.

Die Feinunze Gold stand zum Handelsschluss in Europa bei 412,65/413,30 nach 412,25/413,10 am Vorabend. In London erfolgte das Nachmittagsfixing bei 412,95 Dollar nach 411,55 Dollar am Vormittag und 411,70 Dollar am Dienstagnachmittag.

Eine Schweizer Grossbank gab den Gold-Kilopreis mit 16.585/16.835 (16.543/16.798) sfr an.

Platin sackte nach Gewinnmitnahmen im asiatischen Handel, die durch zurückgehende Befürchtung von Lieferproblemen in Südafrika ausgelöst worden waren, auf 843,00/848,00 von 871,00/876,00 Dollar im New Yorker Handel. ish/ajs

© Reuters 2004

30 Sep 2004 17:48

30.09.2004 17:40:24 Commodities News Summary

TOP NEWS
> UPDATE 1-Europe gold scores new 5-1/2 month peak [nL30562680]

LONDON - Gold scaled new 5-1/2 month peaks in Europe on Thursday, moving above $417 an ounce as funds seized on a struggling dollar to extend their positions in bullion, dealers said.

Silver responded strongly as funds spread their purchases, with the industrial and precious metal moving to levels last seen five weeks ago around $6.90.

- - - -

METALS > UPDATE 4-S.Africa Implats hit by strike, Angloplat [nL30343700]

JOHANNESBURG - Work at the world's second largest platinum producer ground to a halt on Thursday as workers launched a strike against Impala Platinum (/IMPJ.J), but a planned stoppage at Angloplat (/AMSJ.J) was delayed again.

Workers started the Implats stoppage late on Wednesday, when wage talks reached deadlock between union officials and Implats, which accounts for nearly a third of world platinum supply.

- - - -

> Codelco sets record copper premium for Europe in 0 [nL30249564]

LONDON - Chile's state-owned Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, has set 2005 copper cathode premium for Europe at $115 a tonne, a record high, an official with its London office said on Thursday.

This compared with its 2004 premium of $60 over the London Metal Exchange cash price.

- - - -

> Chalco set to lift alumina price by 200 yuan -trad [nL30185917]

LONDON - The world's No.2 alumina producer, state-owned Aluminium Corp of China Ltd. (Chalco) (/2600.HK), is set to lift its prices by more than five percent in response to higher import prices, traders said on Thursday.

Chalco, the country's dominant supplier, will charge another 200 yuan ($24) a tonne for 2004 alumina contracts, taking its sales price to 4,130 yuan ($499) from 3,930.

- - - -

> Spain workers to strike at Atlantic Copper smelter [nL30250662]

MADRID - Workers at Atlantic Copper's smelting plant in Huelva, Spain, have called strikes for four days in October to protest against a company plan to cut 75 jobs, a union leader said on Thursday.

An Atlantic Copper spokeswoman confirmed the company had presented a plan to cut jobs but declined further comment.

- - - -

GRAINS/LIVESTOCK > Frost across northern US Midwest may damage corn, [nN30505818]

CHICAGO - Frosty weather on Saturday and early next week across the northern Midwest may harm some of the immature U.S. corn and soybean crops, a private forecaster said Thursday.

Temperatures early Saturday across the northwestern U.S. Midwest were expected to hit lows of 28 to 35 degrees Fahrenheit, while equivalent readings were forecast for the western Corn Belt on Monday and Tuesday and the eastern belt on Tuesday and Wednesday, said Meteorlogix forecaster Joel Burgio.

- - - -

> World grain markets on hold till early 2005-analys [nL302446]

GENEVA - World grain markets will continue to feel supply-driven price pressure for the next few months but bullish trends could re-emerge around February next year, a leading analyst said on Thursday.

Large corn (maize) and wheat crops around the world have depressed prices and markets have little upside until the new northern hemisphere crop cycle and possibly China returns as a net importer, Dan Basse, President of AgResource, told the Global Grain 2004 conference.

- - - -

> EU seen on course to approve more gene foods [nL29183509]

BRUSSELS - The European Union's executive arm will open the door to imports of more genetically modified (GMO) foods over the next 12 months despite deep divisions among the EU's 25 member states over the whole issue of biotechnology, diplomats say.

The EU's quirky process for taking decisions means the rifts among national governments make it easy for the executive Commission to apply the rubber stamp to GMO applications.

- - - -

> India's soybean output seen up on area rise, rains [nBM21016]

BOMBAY - India's soybean output is likely to rise 5.5 percent to 7.31 million tonnes in the winter season from a year ago because of a rise in crop area and improved rains in September, an industry official said on Thursday.

But soymeal exports from this year's harvests are expected to fall to about 3 million tonnes from 3.45 million in the previous year on rising domestic consumption, Rajesh Agrawal, chairman of the Soybean Processors Association of India, told Reuters.

- - - -

> UPDATE 1-IGC ups wheat, coarse grain output foreca [nL30158801]

LONDON - The International Grains Council (IGC) upped its forecast for world wheat output for the fourth month in a row on Thursday, reflecting expectations of bigger crops in Europe.

In its latest report, the IGC said global wheat output would come in at around 615 million tonnes this season, one million tonnes higher than its August estimate and 11 percent up on the 554 million estimated for 2003/04.

- - - -

> EU's Turkey study underlines farm, trade problems [nL30630830]

BRUSSELS - Turkey needs to liberalise its protected farming sector and drop restrictions on EU imports of items like beef as part of long preparations to join the bloc, a European Commission study said on Thursday.

- - - -

SOFT COMMODITIES
> Ivory Coast Oct-Aug cocoa beans exports slide [nL3033059]

ABIDJAN - Ivory Coast cocoa bean exports totalled 999,864 tonnes from October to August of the 2003/2004 season, down about seven percent from the same period last season, port data showed on Thursday.

- - - -

> EU sells 213,000 T white sugar at tender -trade [nEUSUG1]

LONDON - The European Union sold 213,000 tonnes of white sugar at a maximum rebate of 45.415 euros per 100 kg at Thursday's tender, traders said.

- - - -

> Madagascar suffers collapse in vanilla income [nL30155739]

ANTANANARIVO - Madagascar, the world's top vanilla producer, is facing a collapse in export earnings following a slump in last year's surging prices, a top industry official said on Thursday.

- - - -

© Reuters 2004

30 Sep 2004 22:06

30.09.2004 21:57:20 COMEX gold rises to 5-1/2-month high, '04 top eyed

NEW YORK, Sept 30 (Reuters) - The price of gold rose to a 5-1/2-month high above $420 an ounce in New York futures trade on Thursday, as investors switched from dollars to precious metals amid rising oil prices and concerns about inflation.

At the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for December delivery peaked at $420.80 an ounce in late trade, its highest level since April 13, when gold was retreating from multi-year highs above $430 earlier that month. The benchmark contract settled up $5.70 at $420.40.

"There's a lot of new investment dollars and the liquidity gets a little bit skittish. But, all in all, any trader, in any market in the world, would always like increased volumes and that's what's being visited on us now," said a gold trader at a large commercial bank. "Obviously, the main driver continues to be dollar nervousness."

December gold broke above its Aug. 20 $416.80 peak in electronic trading, before open-outcry business began.

Estimated gold futures volume was a busy 70,000 contracts.

Dealers had their eyes on $436.50, the high for the contract set as gold reached its best prices in a decade and a half. That was on April 1, days after the euro reached a life-time high.

"We're seeing the beginning of metals pushing on their own fundamentals," said Paul McLeod, a precious metals vice president at Commerzbank Securities. "It's not hurting that it's quarter-end and there might be some additional window dressing. But it feels like it's more than that."

Oil prices have taken over in recent weeks as the important influence on gold. Investors sought an asset that can hold its value against inflation and speculators jumped on the move.

NYMEX crude oil futures cleared $50 a barrel for the first time this week and closed Thursday at $49.64.

Spot gold climbed to $418.00/8.75 from the previous close at $412.65/3.40 and London's afternoon fix at $415.65.

Dealers said physical demand for gold was strong from India, which is entering the festival season, and from the Middle East, where high oil prices have created extra wealth that is finding its way into gold bar investments.

"I think they are comfortable with the psychological aspect of gold being over $400. I don't think they are going to pull back just because it's broken above $410," McLeod of Commerzbank said.

December silver rose 24.3 cents to $6.938 an ounce, trading from $6.665 to $6.98, its best level since Aug. 20.

Silver futures this week broke above an important technical down-trend line, drawn off the bull-market high at $8.48 on April 2, when silver hit its highest level since 1987.

Spot silver closed at $6.88/91, up from Wednesday's $6.65/68. The fix was $6.665.

October platinum went up $14.50 to $861 on worries about supply from South Africa. Spot was at $858/863.

Operations at the world's second largest platinum producer ground to a halt on Thursday as workers began a strike against Impala Platinum (/IMPJ.J). And the National Union of Mineworkers in South Africa called for a strike to begin Thursday night against world number one platinum producer Angloplat (/AMSJ.J), after wage talks collapsed.

December palladium rose $4.85 to $224.75 an ounce. Spot palladium traded at $218.50/224.50.

© Reuters 2004

01 Okt 2004 14:27

01.10.2004 14:25:12 Platinum market keeps cool as strike hits S.Africa

By Eric Onstad

JOHANNESBURG, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Strikes against the world's two biggest platinum producers in South Africa are likely to be short-lived, but a market squeeze could develop if they extend longer than a week or two, analysts said on Friday.

The market reaction has so far been muted after unions declared work stoppages over wages in recent days against both the world's biggest platinum producer Angloplat (/AMSJ.J) and number two Implats (/IMPJ.J).

"There's a lot of metal circulating in the market, it'll take a little while before the market tightens up at all," said Jeremy Coombes, general manager of marketing at London-based refiner Johnson Matthey (/JMAT.L).

Platinum prices were bid at $862 per ounce at Friday midday, recovering from a low of $846 earlier in the week. But this is well off a 24-year peak of $942 per ounce touched in April.

The two firms together account for two-thirds of world supply, but it was unclear how many workers were downing tools at Angloplat on Friday.

But even if both firms are shut down by workers, the market has more cushion now than in recent years as supply and demand are more balanced after years of deficit.

The market might even see its first surplus for several years in 2004 due to diminished buying of platinum jewellery in Asia after prices ramped up and also from increased mine output.

Some dealers in Asia expect a surplus of 200,000 ounces this year after a deficit of 600,000 ounces last year.

"Now is also not a bad time to run the risk of a production interruption ... with the market showing signs of returning to oversupply, the risk of losing a hundred thousand ounces of platinum may be worth taking," UBS London-based analyst John Reade said in a research report this week.

REFINING CONTINUES
Analysts say during some past platinum strikes, firms have kept their refinery operations running with skeleton staff, using ore stockpiles and material in the long pipeline to keep producing refined metal.

Implats Chief Financial Officer David Brown told Reuters that minimal amount of refining was occurring. "There is obviously no new ore being mined but there is some residual processing that is taking place," he said.

Angloplat said on Friday output was not yet affected, but the union insisted that most workers were observing the strike.

The two sides might settle their differences after several days of posturing, said an analyst in Johannesburg who declined to be named.

"My gut feel is that this strike is going to be very short-lived, the gap is very small...The companies are trying to flex their muscles and see how committed the unions are."

The firms, which have over several years consistently granted above-inflation wage deals, want to draw a line in the sand, especially when they are being hit by a strong rand that cuts export income, the analyst added.

Implats and Angloplat together produce over four million ounces of refined platinum per year out of global output of 6.1 million ounces.

Reade estimated that a strike at both producers would cost 60,000-80,000 ounces of platinum per week.

During an extended strike, some consumers will be able to hold out with their own stocks while others would have to seek supplies held by investors.

It was impossible to know the level of platinum stocks, but after several years of market deficits, they certainly have declined, Coombes said.

"General market stocks have been falling and the market is not as liquid as it used to be," he said. "The question is, of those stocks that remain, where are they?"

The first indication of a squeeze in the market would likely come through higher lease rates, Coombes added.

© Reuters 2004

04 Okt 2004 10:04

04.10.2004 10:02:20 TECHNICALS-Gold seen firm, eyes dollar/oil

---------------------------------------------------------------

SPOT NY CLOSE * SUPPORT * RESIST * RSI14 * MA10 * MA30
GOLD 418.85/9.60 * 414.00 * 421.00 * 78.4 * 412.13 * 406.54
SILVER 6.89/6.92 * 6.70 * 7.00 * 84.7 * 6.58 * 6.47
PLAT 858.00/2.00 * 825.00 * 875.00 * 51.9 * 852.50 * 849.10
----------------- VIEWS FROM THE MARKET - Oct 4 ---------------

LONDON, Oct 4 (Reuters) - Gold's direction will remain tied to the dollar and oil prices, with last week's positive performance setting the precious metal up to test $420/25 an ounce, traders said on Monday.

Early trade was very subdued, slipping against late levels at the end of last week in New York as the dollar firmed a little and oil prices fell back under $50 a barrel.

"Light oil and dollar related profit taking has been seen from Asian players this morning, but overall gold seems happy to follow the course of least resistance, which for the time being is higher," James Moore of TheBullionDesk.com said in a daily note.

GOLD - Chart analysts see prospects for further gains.

"This view is given added weight by the fact that the 10-day and 30-day moving averages, having crossed last week, are now diverging," Angus MacMillan, metals strategist with Prudential Bache said in a weekly note.

He noted however that recent buying activity had pushed the RSI well into overbought territory.

"It is very hard to give a forecast given the quiet trading conditions," a German trader said.

"We have to keep an eye on the oil price, but we need some fresh impetus to get us going again."

He noted gold priced in euros (XAUEUR=R) remained strong, trading at 337.00 euros an ounce, not far from a peak of 339.44 at the end of August.

The dollar gained to trade around $1.2370, up from levels of $1.2417 at the end of last week, with little market-moving news coming from Friday's meeting of the Group of Seven industrial nations.

Benchmark oil futures were steady at $49.70/bbl, slightly off Friday's close above $50.

If gold manages to crack $420/25, it will then look to take out a peak at $430.40 from April, which was 10 cents off January's 15-year high.

At 0748 GMT spot gold was quoted at $417.00/417.75, down from New York's close on Friday of $418.85/419.60.

SILVER - Upside seen limited given overbought indicators. Will continue to take its lead from gold and the base metals complex.

"Expect further scale up selling to appear from (Friday's) high ($6.94) to $7.00," ScotiaMocatta said in a report.

MacMillan pegged support at the 200-day moving average around $6.47.

At 0752 GMT spot silver was quoted at $6.85/6.88, down four cents.

PLATINUM - Drifts lower and seen mainly stagnant, gleaning support though from ongoing labour disputes in South Africa.

"While the strike activities...are unlikely to cause a physical shortage in the short term, it should nevertheless continue to lend psychological support to the metal," Alexander Zumpfe of Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein said in a report.

At 0755 GMT spot platinum was quoted at $853.00/858.00, a loss of $3.00 on New York's close

04 Okt 2004 11:54

04.10.2004 11:40:31 Copper pares gains on stock rise in LME pre-market

LONDON, Oct 4 (Reuters) - Copper prices were braked by stock increases in Monday's early pre-market on the London Metal Exchange (LME), while fund buying shored up zinc and aluminium, traders said.

Analysts expected a period of consolidation, with further gains possibly ahead, after the sharp jump in prices of most metals last week.

Copper was buoyant in early trade, peaking at $3,015.50 a tonne, before news of inflows into Singapore warehouses caused a wobble.

"The fact that stocks are up has taken the shine off a little bit," one trader said. "We've just got to keep an eye on stocks over the next couple of days. This could be the start of more coming in."

LME inventories rose 8,350 to 100,150 tonnes on Monday.

Three months was quoted at $2,996/3,001 by 0908 GMT, up $1 on Friday's evening kerb close.

Sempra Metals economist John Kemp said fund interest in New York COMEX copper had jumped to its highest in several months.

The number of funds with positions of all types was running at its highest since October/November 2003, while the average position was the highest since February 2004 and well above the norm for the past 10 years.

"The significant increase in fund involvement is probably a source of fragility," he said in a report. "It is unlikely the funds will boost their position much further."

Technically. however, copper's performance had opened the way for a re-test of March's near nine-year high of $3,055. Copper peaked at $3,019 last Thursday.

The cash/threes backwardation remained firm at $130/135, up from $125/135 at the end of last week.

Traders said fund buying buoyed aluminium and zinc in early trade, although the former then gave up most of its gains after copper fell.

Aluminium was last quoted at $1,824/28, up $4. Zinc gained $23 to $1,130/33, not far from last week's six-month high of $1,140.

Robin Bhar of Standard Bank London said in a daily report that talk continued to circulate of surplus aluminium in Asia in the process of being warranted, which could be reflected soon in rising stocks.

Aluminium stocks in LME warehouses have more than halved since the start of the year, totalling 682,800 tonnes as of Monday.

Lead added $4 to $910/915 a tonne. Tin shed $100 to 9,050/9,150.

Nickel drifted down to $15,750/15,900 from $15,900, but was seen subdued as traders licked their wounds after last week's extreme volatility.

The metal gained nearly $1,600, or 10 percent, last Thursday, only to give back most of that in the following session.

04 Okt 2004 17:51

04.10.2004 17:19:39 Commodities News Summary

TOP NEWS
> UPDATE 1-Angloplat says platinum strike starts to [nL04623674]

JOHANNESBURG - A strike at the world's biggest platinum producer Angloplat (/AMSJ.J) has started to hit output, but only 30-40 percent of the workforce is taking part, the firm said on Monday.

- - - -

> UPDATE 2-Platinum drops sharply in Europe despite [nL0480103]

LONDON - Precious metal platinum dived to its lowest in more than nine weeks on Monday in Europe as the market ignored comments from the world's biggest producer saying that strike action was affecting output, dealers said.

- - - -

> UPDATE 2-Bird flu kills nine-year-old Thai girl, 3 [nBKK17246]

BANGKOK - Asia's bird flu epidemic, which experts fear could spawn a human pandemic, has claimed its 31st victim, a nine-year-old Thai girl who had contact with infected chickens at home.

- - - -

> Fear stalks village of Thai bird flu victim [nBKK13744]

KAMPHAENG PHET, Thailand - In a crowded hospital lobby in northern Thailand, masked patients wait to see the doctor, worried that the smallest cough could lead to death.

- - - -

METALS > INTERVIEW-Outokumpu sees no squeeze in nickel mark [nL01563121]

STOCKHOLM - Finland's Outokumpu (/OUT1V.HE) has not seen a squeeze in the market for nickel -- crucial for stainless steel manufacturers -- and that prices should fall by the second half of 2005, its president told Reuters on Friday.

- - - -

> UPDATE 1-India's National Aluminium raises product [nBM30336]

BOMBAY - State-run National Aluminium Company Ltd. , India's second-largest aluminium maker, said on Monday it had raised metal prices by 2,500 rupees per tonne.

- - - -

> FEATURE-Brazil gold rides new investment wave [nN03438498]

RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil - A new wave of miners and investors, attracted by higher bullion prices and a clampdown on illegal small-scale mining, is reviving Brazil's run-down gold mining industry.

- - - -

> Billion-dollar copper lawsuit starts in UK court [nL0489139]

LONDON - A lawsuit between Japan's Sumitomo Corp and metals broker Credit Lyonnais Rouse (CLR), the final legacy of 1996's multi-billion-dollar copper market scandal, started on Monday in Britain's High Court.

- - - -

GRAINS/LIVESTOCK
> France expected to announce big China wheat deal [nL04230732]

PARIS - A major grain export deal with China should be announced this weekend during a visit to the country by President Jacques Chirac, French traders said on Monday.

- - - -

SOFT COMMODITIES
> Licht sees flat 04/05 world sugar output yr/yr [nL0496531]

LONDON - World sugar output is expected to remain little changed year-on-year at 143.9 million tonnes in 2004/05, and demand is seen up two to three million tonnes, possibly to 144-145 million, German analyst F.O. Licht said.

- - - -

> UPDATE 1-Funds set sights on sugar, ABN AMRO says [nL0479209]

LONDON - Hedge funds are pouring fresh money into sugar markets on the promise of better returns than alternative investments, Netherlands-based bank ABN AMRO said on Monday.

"Hedge funds are the new kings of the sugar market and are set to influence prices in the medium term," ABN AMRO said.

- - - -

> Ivory Coast main cocoa harvest gathers pace [nL03588371]

OURAGAHIO, Ivory Coast - Ivory Coast's main cocoa harvest is gathering pace but growers are reluctant to sell beans before a new minimum indicative price is set for 2004/05, farmers and buyers in a major growing region said.

- - - -

© Reuters 2004

04 Okt 2004 17:53

04.10.2004 17:33:21 Europe gold closes sharply down, platinum tumbles

* Spot gold falls to end at $412.75/413.50 per troy ounce by 1515 GMT, compared with $418.85/419.60 late in New York on Friday.

* Gold under pressure from firm dollar versus the euro , softer oil price below $50 a barrel and large spec exposure. Euro last at $1.2267.

* Platinum tumbles to lowest in over nine weeks at $815.00/820.00 by 1528 GMT from $858.00/862.00 in New York late on Friday.

* Platinum market players sell despite news that production at the world's biggest producer Angloplat (/AMSJ.J) has started to be affected by a strike.

* Silver falls in line with losses in gold to $6.71/6.74 from $6.89/6.92 late on Friday in New York.

* Palladium follows platinum down to $213.00/218.00 from $218.50/223.50 previously.

05 Okt 2004 10:06

05.10.2004 09:57:38 TECHNICALS-Gold seen in narrow range, eyes dollar

---------------------------------------------------------------

SPOT NY CLOSE * SUPPORT * RESIST * RSI14 * MA10 * MA30
GOLD 418.85/9.60 * 414.00 * 421.00 * 78.4 * 412.13 * 406.54
SILVER 6.89/6.92 * 6.70 * 7.00 * 84.7 * 6.58 * 6.47
PLAT 858.00/2.00 * 825.00 * 875.00 * 51.9 * 852.50 * 849.10
----------------- VIEWS FROM THE MARKET - Oct 5 ---------------

LONDON, Oct 5 (Reuters) - Gold is seen steady in a range on Tuesday, with short-term direction still tied to currency moves, traders and analysts said.

The market would also watch oil prices, with New York's benchmark crude contract popping back over $50 a barrel overnight.

Traders said the market had come under pressure the previous day in the absence of any declarations from Friday's G7 meeting about gold sales by central banks.

The dollar hit one-week highs agains the euro on Tuesday, although currency markets were awaiting comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan on the U.S. economy later in the day.

GOLD - Seen range-bound, with risk skewed to the upside.

"The key and main issue is going to be the dollar/euro," said Frederic Panizzutti of MKS Finance in Switzerland.

He said gold might test $418 an ounce if the euro strengthened significantly during the day.

"We're in a $412-418 range for now and only a sharp recovery in the euro could help gold to move back up and over $418," Panizzutti said.

ScotiaMocatta put support from Monday's low of $411 down to $408, with a break of that opening the way to a test of $405.

Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein said the previous day's selling had stalled recent upward momentum.

"We don't rule out further selling into rallies over the next couple of days although upcoming physical demand should give support."

The euro was quoted at $1.2283/86 by 0738 GMT, off its one-week low of $1.2257 hit in New York on Monday.

Benchmark oil futures were higher at $50.26/bbl.

At 0741 GMT spot gold was quoted little changed at $413.75/414.50, from New York's late quote on Monday of $413.80/414.55.

SILVER - Seen vulnerable to long liquidation having failed to crack its $7.00 target the previous day.

"Expect support from (Monday's) low $6.67 to $6.65, although a convincing break will encourage further selling with a goal of $6.51," ScotiaMocatta said.

At 0745 GMT spot silver was quoted unchanged at $6.72/6.75.

PLATINUM - Seen shaky after Monday's $40 sell-off.

"Though trend indicators are now pointing south, the question is whether this consumer interest is strong enough to help platinum to find a bottom around $820 or whether there is more selling to come," Dresdner's Zumpfe said.

He saw a target of $800 in the event of selling.

Platinum fell as low as $815 an ounce on Monday, its lowest since July 30, disregarding news that work stoppages at the world's largest producer Angloplat could affect output.

At 0749 GMT spot platinum was quoted at $828.00/833.00, gaining $2.00 on New York's close.

05 Okt 2004 11:47

05.10.2004 11:45:01 Base metals barely budge in subdued LME premarket

LONDON, Oct 5 (Reuters) - London Metal Exchange (LME) base metals put in a mixed performance on Tuesday during routine premarket trade.

Dealers attributed low liquidity to the absence of Chinese players, with markets there closed until Thursday for a national holiday.

Copper nosed back into positive territory after warehouse stocks fell on Tuesday. Given the metal's widening backwardation, some had feared further rises after the previous session's inflow of over 8,000 tonnes.

Three months gained $2 to $2,985.5/89.5 a tonne by 0936 GMT, but lacked the impetus to regain the psychological $3,000 level.

"There's really not much happening. They're all holding quite well," one trader said.

Base metals saw impressive gains across the complex last week as investment funds returned to buy.

Traders were waiting for further direction later in the day when Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is due to comment on the state of the U.S. economy.

Later in the week, non-farm payrolls would be scrutinised.

"Nearer term, the metals are likely to consolidate current levels in the absence of Chinese liquidity," Martin Fewings, base metals analyst with Mitsui Bussan said in a report.

Aluminium stuck to narrow ranges, with price dips still seen well supported. The metal was indicated at $1,825/28 from $1,823.

Nickel added $25 to $15,600/700 a tonne, with further inflows of full plate cathode into the Gothenburg warehouse keeping the market on the defensive.

Analysts said nickel was attempting to find an equilibrium level following last week's extreme volaitlity.

"The broad uptrend remains in place and will be negated only by a close below $14,200," Robin Bhar, metals analyst with Standard Bank London, said in a report.

Lead gained $19 to $925/29, while tin dropped $100 to $9,050/9,100.

Traders said zinc continued to attract CTA-type buying, gaining $9.5 to $1,137/40, having earlier scored a fresh six-month peak at $1,142.50 a tonne.

05 Okt 2004 16:08

05.10.2004 16:01:36 COMEX gold up early, weak dollar restores confidence

NEW YORK, Oct 5 (Reuters) - COMEX gold steadied Tuesday after its pullback from last week's highs, helped by a weaker dollar, another record oil price, and concern that these could foreshadow inflation.

At 9:20 a.m. EDT (1320 GMT), December gold was up $1.70 at $417.30 an ounce, winning back some of Monday's $5.60 decline. The range was $414.50 to $418, with traders keeping Friday's 5-1/2 month high at $421.90 in sight.

Spot was quoted at $415.35/6.10, up from $413.80/4.55 at the close. London's early fix was $414.25.

"It's a little bit of buying off the crude and we're making new highs on the euro. It held $413.30 yesterday and it's trying to inch back up here, but there's no volume," a floor broker said, mentioning a technical level arising from several recent daily lows and highs.

At the NYMEX energy pits, oil came within 10 cents of $51 a barrel Tuesday morning on the ACCESS electronic trading system. Gold has been following crude. Investors see it as a store of value if soaring energy costs spread in the economy, and undermine the dollar's purchasing power.

"It's knocking on the door there. Basically we're trading within a small range in gold this morning," said Frank Aburto, a bullion trader with F.C. Stone. "It's just marking time. But to me, it looks a little steadier for the day at least."

Gold has also been supported by instability in Iraq, fears of al Qaeda attacks and uncertainty before the November U.S. presidential election.

Funds loaded up on the safe-haven metal, but have not built a long position as big as the extreme seen early this year when gold futures reached 16-year highs above $430 an ounce.

December silver was up 8.0 cents at $6.845 an ounce, trading from $6.72 to $6.85. On Friday it touched $7.00 for the first time since Aug. 20, but fell sharply on Monday.

Spot silver fetched $6.78/81, up from $6.72/75 late Monday. The fix was $6.735.

NYMEX January platinum was up $6 at $835 an ounce, finding its footing after a $31 fall Monday. Spot was at $832.00/836.00.

December palladium was up $2.60 at $219.70 an ounce. Spot palladium last traded at $214.00/218.00.

© Reuters 2004

05 Okt 2004 18:14

05.10.2004 18:05:57 Commodities News Summary

TOP NEWS
> UPDATE 1-Platinum firms restart wage talks on endi [nL05647992]

JOHANNESBURG - The world's two biggest platinum producers said on Tuesday they were going back to the negotiating table to try to end strikes that started last week.

- - - -

> EU to review national GMO bans from moratorium era [nL05640525]

BRUSSELS - Six EU governments face pressure to scrap national bans on certain gene-spliced foods that had been approved for growing and processing before the bloc began its 1998-2004 biotech ban, officials said on Tuesday.

- - - -

> COMEX copper firms on prospects for Chile strike [nN05397845]

NEW YORK - U.S. copper futures posted moderate gains Tuesday morning as they took a half-hearted cue from prospects for a Chilean strike later this week and a softer dollar, traders said.

- - - -

> Europe gold ends on firm note, eyes dollar/euro [nL05191751]

* Spot gold rises to $415.60/416.35 per troy ounce by the European market close on Tuesday at 1515 GMT, against $413.80/414.55 quoted in New York late on Monday.

- - - -

> Crop-munching African locusts head north and west [nL0514530]

NDANDE, Senegal - Swarms of desert locusts which have ravaged crops across impoverished West Africa are expected to move north over the coming weeks, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) said on Tuesday.

- - - -

METALS > UPDATE 4-Australia's BHP plans up to A$1.5 bln buy [nSYD32511]

MELBOURNE - BHP Billiton Ltd./Plc. (/BHP.AX) (/BLT.L), the world's largest diversified miner, said on Tuesday it would buy back up to A$1.5 billion ($1.1 billion) of its Australian-listed shares, driving the stock to a record high.

- - - -

> UPDATE 1-Codelco sees 2005 copper output at 1.7 ml [nN04252338]

VINA DEL MAR, Chile - Chile's state-owned Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, expects to produce about 1.7 million tonnes of copper in 2005, similar to expected 2004 volumes, the company's chief executive said on Monday.

- - - -

> RusAl to invest $1 bln in Venezuela bauxite/alumin [nN05286145]

CARACAS, Venezuela - Russian aluminum producer RusAl plans to invest $1 billion in a project to mine bauxite in Venezuela and build a 1-million-tonne alumina plant in the South American country, Venezuelan Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel said Tuesday.

- - - -

> UPDATE 1-S.African DRD lays off 1,619 workers, cos [nL05562777]

JOHANNESBURG - South African gold miner Durban Roodepoort Deep (DRD) (/DURJ.J) said on Tuesday it had laid off 1,619 workers in a restructuring of its loss-making Blyvoor mine.

- - - -

GRAINS/LIVESTOCK > UPDATE 1-S.Korea's Nonghyup Feed buys max 155,000 [nSEO146554]

SEOUL - South Korea's Nonghyup Feed Inc. has bought between 145,000 and 155,000 tonnes of optional-origin corn for feed production for December arrival, traders said on Tuesday.

- - - -

> EU's next farm chief names 3 Danes to inner circle [nL0547582]

BRUSSELS - Incoming EU agriculture chief Mariann Fischer Boel has named three fellow Danes to top positions in her inner circle to help advise her over the next five years, officials said on Tuesday.

- - - -

> Brazil 05/06 soy export registers shadow of yr ago [nN30585997]

SAO PAULO, Brazil - Brazilian soybean and product registrations for export in 2005/06 (Feb/Jan) were a mere pittance of registrations at this time last year, Brazil's Vegetable Oils Industry Association (Abiove) said on Tuesday.

- - - -

> Indonesia eyes biodiesel as palm oil output grows [nJAK312651]

JAKARTA - Indonesia is exploring the biodiesel market as world palm oil demand stagnates, especially as it plans to double palm oil area to 10 million hectares over the next 30 years, officials said on Tuesday.

- - - -

COCOA/COFFEE/SUGAR > French teargas stone-hurling Ivory Coast militants [nL0593944]

ABIDJAN - Demonstrators hurled rocks at French soldiers outside their base in Ivory Coast's main city of Abidjan on Tuesday and troops used teargas to try to disperse them.

- - - -

> India seen boosting sugar demand into 2005 - FAO [nL05275075]

LONDON - India, the world's biggest sugar consumer, is expected to raise sugar imports later this year and in 2005 to compensate for declining stocks after a poor harvest, a United Nations sugar expert said on Tuesday.

- - - -

> Conroy finds more gold mineralisation in Ireland [nL0585578]

LONDON - AIM-listed Irish based Conroy Diamonds and Gold (/CDG.L) Plc said on Tuesday it found more high-grade gold mineralisation in the Armagh-Monaghan Gold Belt.

- - - -

> UPDATE 1-Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals 1,379,894 T by [nL05618108]

ABIDJAN - Cocoa arrivals at ports in Ivory Coast reached 1,379,894 tonnes between the start of the 2003/04 (Oct-Sept) campaign and September 15, official data from the Coffee and Cocoa Bourse (BCC) showed on Tuesday.

- - - -

06 Okt 2004 10:11

06.10.2004 09:57:37 TECHNICALS-Gold seen in narrow range, eyes dollar

---------------------------------------------------------------

SPOT NY CLOSE * SUPPORT * RESIST * RSI14 * MA10 * MA30
GOLD 418.00/8.75 * 414.00 * 421.00 * 68.2 * 413.73 * 407.29
SILVER 7.05/7.08 * 6.94 * 7.15 * 78.1 * 6.71 * 6.49
PLAT 837.00/2.00 * 825.00 * 875.00 * 49.4 * 849.15 * 848.00
----------------- VIEWS FROM THE MARKET - Oct 6 ---------------

LONDON, Oct 6 (Reuters) - Gold could make further progress towards $420/25, traders said on Wednesday, although they did not expect this to happen during European trading hours.

Spot gold began to firm overnight in New York, aided by oil scoring fresh record highs above $51. The Japanese market followed suit, taking the metal to a near six-month high of $420.20.

But selling emerged in early European trade, knocking gold back down to almost unchanged.

"Europe is playing it much more on the sell-side. It's the same pattern we've seen over the past few days," one trader said.

He did not think gold had much of a chance of moving back above $420 until New York's market, which has much greater speculative activity, opened later in the day.

Oil prices were holding firm around $51 a barrel on Wednesday.

"I wouldn't rule out a move back above $420 though profit- taking is currently coming in. I guess the market is now waiting for today's oil inventory data," another trader said.

"Should oil continue to strengthen, I could imagine that $420 and higher will see a comeback."

Inventories of winter fuels in the U.S. are due to be released at 1430 GMT, with analysts expecting a decline.

The euro was little changed from the previous session, with many dealers reluctant to take on large positions ahead of September U.S. jobs data at the end of the week,

GOLD - Seen with potential to add to recent gains, but faces tough resistance at $420.

"Expect further selling in front of $420, however a break above should lead to a test of $422.50 with potential to see $425.00," ScotiaMocatta said in a report.

A relative strength index in the low 60's suggested there was still plenty of room for prices to rise before the market become overbought, ScotiaMocatta added.

At 0739 GMT spot gold was quoted little changed at $418.35/418.85, from New York's late quote on Tuesday of $418.00/418.75.

SILVER - Could add to overnight gains that took silver back above $7.00/oz to its highest since mid-April.

"Expect support from (Monday's) low $6.67 to $6.65, although a convincing break will encourage further selling with a goal of $6.51," ScotiaMocatta said.

At 0740 GMT spot silver was similarly stagnant at $7.04/7.07 from $7.05/7.08.

PLATINUM - Seems to be forming a bottom in the mid-820s area.

"The overall firm precious metals complex is likely to support platinum as well and we forecast the metal to hold within a broad 834-855 range," Alexander Zumpfe of Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein said in a report.

But HSBC's Alan Williamson was less optimistic and thought platinum could come under even more pressure when ongoing strikes in main producer South Africa end.

"Selling the rallies in platinum looks a reasonable short-term strategy, we believe."

At 0715 GMT spot platinum was quoted firmer at $844.00/849.00, versus New York's previous $837.00/842.00.

06 Okt 2004 12:05

06.10.2004 11:59:41 Base metals drift within range, seen hesitant

LONDON, Oct 6 (Reuters) - Base metals prices were mixed during Wednesday's pre-market on the London Metal Exchange (LME), ahead of what was expected to be a routine options declaration, traders said.

Copper had a brief spurt higher in early trade, regaining the $3,000/T level, before dipping back, while aluminium struggled to make headway due to overhead trade selling.

"There's really no need to move the market (for options declaration) as all the big ones are already in-the-money," one trader said.

Robin Bhar, metals analyst with Standard Bank, said it was surprising options activity had not picked up as the market emerged out of the slow summer period, tight supply and a bullish price outlook.

"Calls continue to outweigh puts by a factor of 1.7 times, surggesting tha market participants are still bullish," he said in a report.

Copper was $12 firmer at $3,000/05, with liquidity still affected by the absence of Chinese traders due to a national holiday there.

Several traders and analysts felt the red metal was preparing for another attack on March's 8-3/4 year high around $3,050. But it would first have to punch through tough resistance at $3,020.

"Price action would suggest that we are in for a big move away from current levels very soon. Forward producer selling is capping any rally at the moment," LME broker IFX said in a report.

Others were less convinced.

"It might have another push, in thin volume. Personally I think they (funds) have already taken it far enough. It's the beginning of a new quarter, but they have already thrown a lot of money at it," the trader said.

"But there are a lot of people sitting there waiting for higher prices and if we don't get them, they'll throw in the towel and start to reduce their positions."

Copper remains supported by a tight supply situation, reflected in a ballooning cash/threes backwardation, which moved out to $133/145 on Wednesday, versus $124 at the start of the week.

Aluminium crept into the plus column to trade just $2 firmer at $1,835/38 a tonne.

Traders expected it to remain in a $1,815-45 trading range for now, but analysts said it would need to close above the upper end of that to engender more substantial gains.

"Timing is right for fresh highs for LME week, although a higher copper price will be required," IFX said.

Nickel gained $100 to $15,700/15,800 a tonne, while tin lost $30 to $9,020/89.

Lead was quoted at $930/35 from $925, while zinc gained $14 to $1,136/40.

06 Okt 2004 20:37

06.10.2004 17:15:08 Commodities News Summary

TOP NEWS
> LME aluminium sets 9-year high on fund buying [nL06634763]

LONDON - Aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) jumped above $1,860 a tonne, the highest since August 1995, on fund buying, traders said on Wednesday. At 1247 GMT, LME three month aluminium was trading at $1,863/64 a tonne, up $30 from the previous day's late kerb close of $1,833.

- - - -

> NY copper surges to 9-3/4-year high on fund buying [nN06390115]

NEW YORK - Copper futures charged up to highs dating back to January 1995 on Wednesday, on a strong demand outlook at the same time supplies are declining and further threatened by labor strikes, traders said.

A drop in already low exchange warehouse inventories coupled with the possibility of strikes at two separate copper facilities, acted as catalysts to buy copper.

- - - -

METALS
> LME lead prices hit contract high on fund buying [nL06468614]

LONDON - Lead on the London Metal Exchange (LME) jumped above $950 a tonne, the highest since it was denominated in dollars in the early 1990s, on fund buying, traders said Wednesday. At 1230 GMT, LME three month lead was trading at $950/51 a tonne, up from the previous day's late kerb close of $925.

- - - -

GRAINS/LIVESTOCK
> EU farm union calls for bloc-wide GMO crop rules [nL06643095]

BRUSSELS - Europe needs hard-and-fast rules on how to separate biotech, organic and traditional crops instead of a string of national laws that are tailored to local conditions, EU farmers' organisation COPA said on Wednesday.

- - - -

> Winter outlook mixed for US as El Nino looms [nN06364841]

WASHINGTON - Warmer than normal temperatures are forecast to blanket the western United States and Plains states this winter, but it is unclear whether the Northeast and Midwest will face warmer, colder or normal winter weather, U.S. government forecasters said on Wednesday.

- - - -

> Pakistan may import extra one mln tonnes wheat [nISL103130]

KARACHI - Pakistan may import another one million tonnes of wheat to maintain strategic reserves, Pakistani Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz was quoted as saying on Wednesday.

The official APP news agency said Aziz made the remarks while presiding over a meeting of the cabinet's Economic Coordination Committee, Pakistan's top economic decision-making body.

- - - -

COCOA/COFFEE/SUGAR > Physical sugar-Indians shop for raws, breather see [nEUSUG2]

LONDON - Indian buyers sought raw sugar aggressively this week and are set to buy more to compensate for a dismal crop and falling stocks, but they may pause in the face of rising prices, European traders said on Wednesday.

- - - -

> Row over certification hinders organic coffee boom [nL06041342]

ENTEBBE, Uganda - Western demand for organic coffee is growing fast, but the industry is being held back by wrangles over who should pay for the costly process of certifying beans, farmers and buyers were told on Wednesday.

06 Okt 2004 20:38

06.10.2004 20:33:49 COMEX gold ends near flat, consolidates gains

NEW YORK, Oct 6 (Reuters) - COMEX gold settled little changed on Wednesday, capped after hitting a six-month high overnight by a firmer dollar and by profit-taking after a one-month gain of better than 6 percent.

Traders said the overbought market was reluctant to keep buying before Friday's important September U.S. employment report.

"People are exceedingly aware that it's coming out and that it is four weeks before the election and are concerned that perhaps there will be a very good figure," said Graham Leighton, a precious metals vice president at Societe Generale.

December gold hit $422.20 an ounce in ACCESS electronic trade overnight, besting Friday's $421.90 peak. It was the highest price for the contract since April 13, when it was retreating from 15-year highs on the first of that month.

The contract closed up 20 cents at $420.00, after bottoming at $417.50 in open-outcry trade.

Investment funds and traders have April's $436.50 peak for the December contract in the cross hairs. Bulls are counting on continued weakness in the dollar, record high oil prices and geopolitical tensions before the November U.S. presidential elections to keep gold in favor as a safe haven.

"There is not that much selling over the market," a COMEX broker said. "Everybody is looking at the crude. People are getting convinced here that you can't sell it, so you're getting some added buying inside here. We're just asking ourselves: 'Where is this thing going to go?'"

The net speculative long position in futures is getting huge again. But traders said this week that funds have room to keep buying before they reach the extremely overextended situation seen during the run to the 2004 highs.

"Open interest is exceedingly large and the number of spec longs is more than it's been for six months," Leighton said. "They are nervous that we're close to the highs for the year coming into these (jobs) numbers."

Spot closed at $417.75/8.50, just off Tuesday's $418.00/8.75. London's afternoon fix was $418.45.

December silver went up 14.3 cents to $7.245 an ounce, reaching its highest price since April 19 at $7.28, up from a low of $7.08. It extended Tuesday's 5-percent breakout rally. Dealers said speculators saw silver as a technical buy, being far less overbought than gold.

Spot silver rose to $7.20/23 from $7.05/08 at the previous close. The fix was at $7.15.

NYMEX January platinum went up $6.60 to $845.80 an ounce. Spot was last quoted at $841.50/846.50.

December palladium was $2.55 firmer at $227.50 an ounce. Spot palladium last traded at $221.00/227.00.

07 Okt 2004 10:15

07.10.2004 09:58:33 TECHNICALS-Gold seen holding ahead of U.S. data

---------------------------------------------------------------

SPOT NY CLOSE * SUPPORT * RESIST * RSI14 * MA10 * MA30
GOLD 417.75/8.50 * 414.00 * 421.00 * 68.9 * 414.58 * 407.68
SILVER 7.20/7.23 * 7.00 * 7.35 * 81.5 * 6.80 * 6.52
PLAT 841.50/6.50 * 825.00 * 875.00 * 50.2 * 848.95 * 847.77
----------------- VIEWS FROM THE MARKET - Oct 7 ---------------

LONDON, Oct 7 (Reuters) - Gold looks set to remain in a $414-420 an ounce range on Thursday as traders await U.S. jobs data at the end of the week.

The market would remain supported by any dollar weakness, while fresh record high oil prices above $52 a barrel were also supportive.

"Though the uptrend is intact, market players are likely to wait for tomorrow's U.S. payroll data for the next direction," Alexander Zumpfe of Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein said in a daily report.

Standard Bank London said a breach of the upper end of the trading range during New York hours could be possible if oil continued to go up.

The euro had firmed to $1.2307/10 by 0736 GMT, up from around $1.2290 in late U.S. trade.

Financial markets were all awaiting Friday's U.S. September non-farm payrolls report, which was expected to show 148,000 new jobs, versus the 144,000 added in August.

GOLD - Range-bound, with bias to the upside.

"While the downside is unlikely to be tested as long as oil remains firm, a break through to the upside might bring a test of the next resistance levels at $423 and $425," Zumpfe said.

ScotiaMocatta expected further selling to emerge at initial $420 resistance.

At 0740 GMT spot gold moved up to $419.00/419.75 from New York's late quote on Wednesday of $417.75/418.50.

SILVER - Seen continuing upside assault given firm tone in gold, high oil prices and buoyant base metals.

First resistance pegged at previous day's near-six-month high of $7.21, followed by $7.25 and then $7.35.

Silver peaked in early April at $8.43.

Standard Bank said in its report that the $8 target was well within silver's sights.

At 0745 GMT spot silver had edged up one cent to $7.21/7.24.

PLATINUM - Seen continuing slow but steady recovery after a sharp fall earlier in the week towards $820.

Zumpfe expected the metal to hold in a $840-855 range on Thursday, noting platinum had run into selling at $850 in Asian markets earlier.

At 0747 GMT spot platinum was quoted firmer at $846.00/851.00, versus New York's previous $841.50/846.50.

07 Okt 2004 10:17

07.10.2004 10:10:19 Tokyo gold softer but still bullish; silver surges

TOKYO, Oct 7 (Reuters) - Tokyo gold futures backed off slightly from a 12-year high on Thursday after the spot dollar-based price drifted down on the strength of the greenback, but the underlying trend for the metal stayed bullish.

Yen-based silver futures traded on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) surged by their daily 7 yen limit in most contracts for the second day in a row as the metal benefited from the bullish gold and oil prices, traders said.

"Gold failed to gain on strong oil, which was offset by the strength of the dollar, but sentiment is bullish," said Chen Chaur-Shi, vice president at Nihon Unicom's research section.

Chen said bullish oil should keep gold as a hedge against inflation, with fears growing given a surge in the Reuters CRB Index (.CRB), a basket of 17 commodity futures tracked closely by investors, to a fresh 23-year high on Wednesday

The benchmark August TOCOM gold contract closed 3 yen lower at 1,499 yen per gram. It hit a 12-year high of 1,503 yen on Wednesday.

Other contracts closed down 1 to 6 yen.

At 0735 GMT, spot gold was quoted at $419.25/$420.00 per ounce against $417.75/8.50 in New York on Wednesday.

Key August silver futures closed at 253.9 yen per 10 grams. They have gained more than 8 percent from a week ago.

Traders said low liquidity in TOCOM silver could have exaggerated the upswing, although underlying sentiment was bullish in line with gold.

Crude oil rose to a fresh record high of $52.43 a barrel in ACCESS electronic trading in late Asian trade on a lower than anticipated increase in U.S. crude supplies and a draw in heating oil stocks ahead of the winter.

The dollar's strength put some pressure on the spot precious metals price, which weighed on TOCOM prices.

The market wants to see U.S. jobs data to help determine the outlook for the dollar as a clue for gold and other precious metals, traders said.

The non-farm payrolls report for September is expected to show 148,000 new U.S. jobs, versus the 144,000 added in August.

The dollar edged lower to $1.2301/04 against the euro , from late U.S. level.

The greenback also eased to 111.16/22 yen .

TOCOM platinum futures were unchanged to slightly firmer as the world's two biggest platinum producers in South Africa have been on strike since last week, but the market was careful about chasing it actively, traders said.

Key platinum August futures closed unchanged at 2,935 yen per gram.

Below are closing prices for TOCOM's most active precious metals contracts, with the day's turnover for each metal.

Closing prices are in yen per gram except for silver, which is in yen per 10 grams:

07 Okt 2004 16:10

07.10.2004 16:07:21 Early COMEX gold moves in circles before jobs data

NEW YORK, Oct 7 (Reuters) - Gold futures were listless Thursday morning, consolidating little changed near six-month highs as traders kept their powder dry for Friday's September U.S. employment data, the key economic report of the month.

Gold dipped at the open on news of a drop of 37,000 in claims for unemployment benefits last week, which shored up the dollar from overnight slippage, and perhaps foreshadowed a good payrolls number Friday.

"We're churning water here," said a floor broker. "We're not attracting any new buying in the market right now. If you're not in the market, what are you going do at these levels?"

At 9:18 a.m. EDT, December gold was up 20 cents at $420.20 a ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division, trading in a narrow $419.00-$421.70 range.

On Wednesday, the contract hit $422.20, the highest price since April 13, when it was retreating from 16-year highs on the first of that month.

The COMEX broker said floor players were putting scale-up sell orders above the market and waiting. "If the market goes to them, that's it. It could be touch-and-go here today."

Economists polled by Reuters expect the government to report Friday that nonfarm payrolls had risen by 148,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate remained steady at 5.4 percent.

The report will be the last snapshot of how the labor market is faring before the Nov 2. presidential elections. The political uncertainty has unsettled financial markets.

With the dollar struggling, stock markets moving sideways, oil above $52 a barrel and Iraq looking like a quagmire for the United States, investors have sprinkled gold in their portfolios as risk insurance.

Hedge funds and other speculators also played from the long side in precious metals.

"Volatility in the currencies and price gains in the other commodity markets continue to keep the precious metal in an active mood," wrote James Moore of theBullionDesk.com.

"Gold seems comfortable trading around its current levels and still has the potential to move higher, with $430 set to become the next target once $425 is cleared," he wrote. "For now, I think, we are waiting for the dollar movements created by Friday's data."

Spot gold fetched $418.25/9.00, up from the close at $417.75/8.50. London's morning fix was $417.90.

December silver was 1.5 cent firmer at $7.26 an ounce, after reaching its highest price since April 19 at $7.30 from a low of $7.18.

Silver has risen 20 percent since bottoming at $6.07 on Sept. 13. The market is much less liquid than gold and speculators can move prices more easily.

Spot silver was flat at $7.20/23. It fixed at $7.13.

January platinum was off $1.30 at $844.50 an ounce. Spot was last quoted at $841.00/846.00.

December palladium was up $7.50 at $235 an ounce. Spot palladium last traded at $229.00/234.00.

© Reuters 2004