ja bitte, oder nein ich kauf ihn mir selber wenn sich meine Gold+Silber OS verzehnfacht haben und der dollar noch was wert ist (weil die dann auch nix mehr wert sind-harhar.) gibt von ABN aber auch Quanto-OS (währungsgesichert-wieso notiert ein Wert in einer Währung und nicht umgekehrt?) allerdings leicht überteuert die Bande-aber langfristig-i.S.v. wie gefräßig der Dollar in the long run ist zahlen sich die weit mehr aus als jeder andere...
was mich freut ist die Suche nach Sicherheit seitens der Investoren, und Risikoaversionsaufkommen, das sind gute Vorboten für Edelmetalle....
ich hab mal meine PUT OS verkauft, haben zumindest Verluste meiner heiligen Silber-OS abgefangen...tolle Investmentstrategie...
den fetten crash erwarte ich erst ab Ende August..der jetzige wird abgefedert durch positive Quartalsergebnisse die ja zu 70% rosig und saftig präsentiert werden und sonstige Feuerwerke. der Doppelboden wird noch geformt, so wie immer wenn man sich die vergangenen chartmuster ansieht. unter 12, unmöglich. USD iih, Öl aaah, milk, wheat, mais, egg, alles teurer, China=Jahr des Schweines=Goldkaufnachfrage², Indien Monunernte großartig, big demand und das kommt alles ab Sept. und so viel Optionen schwelen noch mit kleinem Ameisenkopf und dem Speer in der Hand die den Goldpreis nach oben schiessen können. vorausgesetzt Amerika läuft nicht in die Rezession und das ist mM der einzige Grund wieso Gold so lustlos und laternenlos seit Wochen durch die Steppen zieht. wenn hier der Richtige Weg eingeschlagen wird in Richtung Hyperinflation (das ja Ben Bernanke versichert hat, das ihn zum HeliBen machte) dann ist der Ausbruch echt geglückt. August gilt es durchzustehen und nachzukaufen 
kam am Mittwoch in meiner mailbox an:
Are we heading for a 2007 market crash?
They say history doesn’t repeat it merely rhymes. If that’s the case, we may be setting up for a 2007 market crash. Take a look at this 1987 stock market crash picture:
1987 stock market crash picture (dow top; bonds below)
Chart 1 - 1987 stock market crash picture (dow top; bonds below)
Since the early 80s the stock and bond markets had been motoring along nicely. Bonds made a high in early 1986 and had been building a top formation into 1987 (not shown). Then in early 1987 Bonds moved lower out of their top formation. The weakness continued until early May when all told the Bond market received a 15% haircut.
The stock market however wasn’t phased. It was quite content to plough ahead even in the face of a deteriorating bond market. In fact, once bonds made a short term bottom in May the stock market celebrated and rallied to fresh highs.
The summer of 1986 saw bonds and stocks rally together — until July. Bonds began declining again (I’m sure the expectation was a double bottom as the stock market continued to surge).
Then came Fall (excuse the pun). Bonds broke below their May lows in September and the market finally sat up and noticed. From then on out it was Katy Bar the Door - the stock market proceeded to tumble into what culminated as the largest 1 day decline in history - Black Monday 19th of October 1987.
Fast forward to today:
2007 market crash? (dow top; bonds below)
Chart 2 - 2007 market crash? (dow top; bonds below)
Bonds made a high at 115 in late 2006 and have been trending lower ever since. The stock market likewise has been unfazed (except for a brief hiccup in March) and has been boldly moving higher.
We are now entering an especially interesting phase in relation to 1987. Bonds began their latest leg down in earnest in March at which time the stock market surged higher — eerily similar to 1987. Now, Bonds have been staging a moderate bounce since June and if the 1987 picture is to unfold again, the minor rebound would be close to over.
If bonds turn lower (as they very well could because of the weak Dollar) I would take that as the first sign of caution. If bonds break below their June lows I would take it as a MASSIVE warning.
Not co-incidentally, gold stocks are beginning to come alive!
Stock Market Outlook:
Asset Allocation Equities (ex-resources):
7% (4% stocks; 3% Put Options) : 93% cash *
(07/15/2007) 7% (4% stocks; 3% Put Options) : 93% cash
Credit contagion is definitely spreading and the stock market is waking up to the ramifications.
Those damn sub prime woes just won’t go away! As mentioned in last week’s letter, credit spreads are on the move and the repricing of debt is no longer confined to sub prime paper but is spreading to higher rated mortgages and corporate debt. The contagion is spreading!
That’s not good news for the banks. For banks, debt instruments are equivalent to their inventory and the latest credit problems are causing all sorts of bother.
Banking Index has been lagging the S&P500 (blue) since March
Chart 3 - Banking Index has been lagging the S&P500 since March
Now I don’t know about you, but I’ve never met a stock bull market where the banks haven’t made out like bandits. It just doesn’t happen! Therefore the break to new lows in the Banking index tells us that the stock market may be in for some rough times ahead.
It’s no coincidence that the Japanese Yen has been rallying whilst the homebuilding stocks have sunk to new lows as the above credit issues are playing out. This implies that a good dollop of Yen carry trade was used to finance the recent credit binge. [I also note that the level of private equity bids has dried up significantly.]
So put it all together for us Greg, where is this blasted stock market going?
Well first let me say it is uncanny how the market draws one in. Last week I put out this newsletter’s first non-resource stock recommendation. Obviously, the market had drawn me in the point where I felt it was a safe bet. And whilst the jury is still out on AOB, the last 10 days have not been kind and the stock is currently down 15%. Point being that the market pulls everyone in before it unleashes hell.
And I think hell is close to being unleashed!
Dollar (blue); Bonds (green); s&p500 (red) each affecting the other after a 3 month time lag.
Chart 4 – Dollar (blue); Bonds (green); s&p500 (red) each affecting the other after a 3 month time lag.
The following intermarket picture needs some explaining.
What we have noticed and written about before is the lag time between the Dollar, Bonds and the Stock Market. To be specific:
• The US Dollar (top blue line) began its current down leg in January and made a short-term bottom in late April (black vertical line). It has subsequently broken below the April bottom but we’ll discuss that later.
• Bonds (green line) began their current down leg roughly 3-months later in March and bottomed in June.
• The S&P500 (red line) started consolidating around June and made a nominal new high in July (approximately 3-months after Bonds began to fall). If the above intermarket correlation holds and they tend to be strong correlations, the next 3 months will not be kind to the stock market. The knock-on effect from a lower Dollar and higher interest rates is coming to bear on the stock market.
Of further concern is the length of time the Dollar has spent probing critical support at 80. In other words, the longer a market probes support, the greater the probability that support will give way. Regardless, the fact that the Dollar has been trending lower since mid-June implies that bonds will reverse lower in a month or so and challenge their recent lows which is sure to spook the stock market further.
The final word – IF (and that’s’ a big if) bonds reverse lower over the next 3-4 weeks and subsequently take out their June lows, the 1987 market crash scenario discussed above will take centre stage.
Strategy: Look to add some put options on a close below the current consolidation at 1490 on the S&P500.
Gold and Energy Market Outlook:
Asset Allocation 78% resource stocks / 22% cash *
Prior allocation (07/15/2007) 70% / 30%
The fundamental question we need to ask ourselves is do we believe this breakout in Gold stocks is real?
Lets recap:
Last week we said that a close above 370 on the Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI) would cause us to begin buying Richmont Mines Inc. (TSX – RIC; AMEX – RIC) and Australian Gold explorer Goldstar Resources (ASX – GDR). The HUI did close above 370 and we did begin buying but the HUI was unable to hold onto 370 and has subsequently pulled back over the last few days.
If we believe this is the real deal then we should be thankful for an opportunity to buy these stocks cheaper than before. If that’s not the case and we are about to embark on an extended drop, this would not be a good time be increasing exposure.
What we do know however is that we are witnessing a flight to quality and a decreased appetite for risk on behalf of market participants.
We note that credit spreads are widening which is a good indication that investors are demanding more yield for higher risk. We also know that Bonds have caught a bid in a flight to safety out of the stock market. What many investors don’t realize is that yields on 5 year notes are falling quicker than yields on 30-year notes. This implies that investors are fleeing to bonds in general but to shorter maturities in particular – another sign of increased risk aversion. [This by the way is causing the yield curve to widen again which if you remember from past letters is positive for Gold].
Lest we not forget the Dollar!
The Dollar index continues to hold on by its fingertips. The probability of a break below support increases the longer we go without a meaningful bounce. Therefore, another sign of risk aversion is the continued movement out of the Dollar and into the Euro.
So is this the real deal for Gold?
I would say it is!
There is no doubting that the trend is towards increased risk aversion and ofcourse nothing is more risk averse than Gold. However, for the time being, investors prefer the comforts of treasuries and foreign currencies. When they realize that this credit problem knows no boundaries and foreign currencies are merely pieces of paper backed by further debt and empty promises they’ll wake up to the value of Gold as the ultimate safe haven.
In other words we need to grit our teeth, continue to add sensibly to our position and hold on until Gold catches a bid as it invariably will.
Short term outlook:
HUI – 370 nemesis continues
Chart 5 - HUI – 370 nemesis continues
In my opinion, the most likely outcome is a 2 – 3 week pullback in sympathy with a falling stock market — a case of throwing the baby out with the bath water – and then Gold Stocks reverse higher to challenge the old May high at 400.
What I will be watching for closely at 400 is confirmation from our faithful indicators that further strength in the gold stocks is likely (which admittedly has not been very gold positive lately):
• Gold should be outperforming Industrial metals and Oil
• Yield curve should be widening
• Credit Spread widening
• Inflation expectations rising
The Silver Market
Silver looks interesting at these levels:
Silver has once again bounced of its 50 week moving average
Chart 6 - Silver has once again bounced of its 50 week moving average
One has to marvel at the power of charts.
A chart is completely emotionless. Take the above Silver chart for example. Readers will remember the drop in April 2006 from $15 to $10. A 30% haircut. Ouch! But on the chart it’s just a series of lines moving downwards with no sign of the fear we endured at the time!
What I’m getting at is regardless of emotions, Silver has consistently bounced off its 50 week moving average. Believe it or not, this has been the case with Silver for the entire duration of the bull market since 2001. Based on the recent bounce, it looks like further strength is in store for Silver.
Strategy & Portfolio Update:
Hold off on further buying until the Gold and Stock market picture evolves a little more. Watch those stop closely and don’t be afraid to pull the trigger if they are hit!
Last week I recommended buying into Richmont Mines Inc. (TSX – RIC; AMEX – RIC) and Australian Gold explorer Goldstar Resources (ASX – GDR). In this letter I will profile Richmont and in the next letter Goldstar.
http://gregsmarketletter.com/
Vorsicht..subprime Kandiat, aber ich arbeite bei einem broker 
![:]](https://goldseiten-forum.com/wcf/images/smilies/pleased.gif "Freude"){kind=small}
q.e.d.