Beiträge von Kuddel

@ Aladin

Mir ist mehr an Fakten als an Gerüchten gelegen.
Die Fakten liegen auf dem Tisch und die sind nicht schlecht.
Können sich ändern - oder auch nicht. Wer weiß das schon ?

Kuddel

@ valueman

Danke für den Beitrag. Ich teile deine Ansicht voll und ganz.
Trotz chaotischem Management um CEO Swanepoel, der letztlich den Absturz verursachte, bleiben die Fakten, dass Harmony die größten Reserven/Ressourcen aufweist. Deshalb ist Harmony eher für Mittel- und Langfristanleger und nicht für Daytrader geeignet, denn auf längere Sicht wird Harmony wieder zu früherer Bewertung finden.

Sicher hat das zögerliche Verhalten der Reservebank verhindert, dass der Rand nicht schon im letzten Jahr schwächer wurde, jetzt kann man sich Leitzinssenkungen nicht mehr erlauben, um die Inflation im Griff zu behalten. Dennoch darf nicht übersehen werden, dass der Rand gegenüber dem USD rund 20 % verloren hat, wenn man den Höchstkurs des letzten Jahres nimmt.

Eine Randabschwächung wurde schon des öfteren prognostiziert und wird auch kommen. Nur wann - das weiß natürlich niemand. Wäre ja auch zu einfach, wenn man das konkret voraussagen könnte. Ich würde darauf auch keine Wette machen, denn das Vertrauen ausländischer Anleger in die südafrikanische Wirtschaft ist besser als manche Beiträge hier im Forum es beschreiben (Wirtschaftswachstum 5-6 %, Leistungsbilanzdefizit unter 4 % des BIP, Moody's Rating Baa).

Hoffen wir auf einen weiter steigenden Goldpreis und auf einen Turnaround aus eigenen Kräften von Harmony, dann freuen wir uns alle, die in Harmony investiert sind.

Kuddel

Hier ein interessanter Artikel über die Situation Südafrikas.
Quelle: Deka Bank, Oktober 2005, Ausgabe 4

Südafrika: Konjunkturbelebung am Kap

Emerging Markets Outlook Oktober 2005

Politik

‡ Allen Unkenrufen zum Trotz hat sich die Politik des Black Economic Empowerment bisher ohne ernsthafte Zerrüttungen der
südafrikanischen Volkswirtschaft vollzogen.
Im Gegenteil: Die Bewegung verspricht, zur Entwicklung einer schwarzen Mittelschicht beigetragen.

‡ Im Bereich der Arbeitsmarktliberalisierung und der Förderung von Aus- und Weiterbildung kommt die Regierung von Präsident
Thabo Mbeki nur schleppend voran. Die Arbeitslosenquote liegt über 25%.

Wirtschaft

‡ Mit dem Ende des Rand-Höhenflugs in der ersten Jahreshälfte hat sich die Konjunktur zuletzt wieder etwas belebt: Nach 3,5% im ersten Quartal legte das BIP im zweiten Quartal real um 4,8% zu.

‡ Wir rechnen mit einem Leistungsbilanzdefizit, das deutlich unter der Marke von 4% des BIP bleiben sollte. Die teuren Rohstoffe begünstigen die südafrikanischen Exporterlöse.

‡ Zuletzt steigender Inflationsdruck, begünstigt durch die hohen Energiepreise – im Juli stieg der CPIX um 4,2% yoy an
(Inflationsziel: 3 bis 6 %) –, schließt aus unserer Sicht für absehbare Zeit Zinssenkungen von Seiten der Notenbank aus.
Entsprechend hatte sich auch SARB-Präsident Tito Mboweni geäußert.

Länderrisiko

‡ Südafrikas Ratings befinden sich weiter im Aufwind: Zuletzt erhöhten Fitch und S&P ihre Südafrika-Ratings von BBB auf BBB+. Moody’s liegt mit Baa1 auf gleichem Niveau.

Finanzmärkte

‡ Bezüglich des Rand erwarten wir auf Sicht von sechs Monaten einen Kurs von EUR-ZAR 7,88 bzw. auf Sicht von zwölf Monaten EUR-ZAR 8,45.

‡ Südafrika ist ein klassischer investment grade-Kredit. Wir erwarten für den südafrikanischen Teilindex eine Bewegung parallel zum BBB-Segment des EMBIG.

BUSINESS REPORT VOM 4.10.2005

Mal eine neue Variante !!!

Report speculates on motives for Kebble's killing
September 28, 2005

Johannesburg - Mining magnate Brett Kebble was murdered on Tuesday night amid a billion rand scandal that has his name written all over it, Moneyweb reported.

"Hundreds upon hundreds of millions of rands are missing and while some auditors scurry for the details, and some others resign, some of the beneficiaries may have taken fright," the financial website said on Wednesday.

"For weeks, there has been the overwhelming sense of a cover-up. Kebble, however, had no end of plain old-fashioned enemies, of the kind that would not hesitate to exact revenge."

Kebble, who had become known as the "new Barney Barnato", was on the way to house of his partner, Sello Rasethaba, when he was shot five times at around 9.00pm.

He found by a passerby on a bridge over Johannesburg’s M1 freeway less than a kilometre from his home in Illovo.

One of the last people to see Kebble alive was his communications strategist, Dominic Ntsele. Ntsele arrived at Kebble's home at 7.00pm.

Moneyweb said according to a regulatory filing by Randgold Resources with the Securities and Exchange Commission in Washington on June 30 this year it was made clear that 14.4 million shares that Randgold & Exploration (R&E) claimed to hold in Randgold Resources had gone missing.

The claim was repeated last Friday.

The "missing" shares - currently worth $225 million - were sold under the direction of Kebble, mostly, according to certain investors who have studied the action in great detail, during and around the third quarter of 2004.

Kebble, who was forced out as the chief executive of R&E (and also JCI Limited and Western Areas) on August 30, had sold the shares without the permission of either his board of directors or shareholders in R&E.

There appears to be a fair chance that at least some of the money went to Anglo American, for a bunch of Western Areas shares that Kebble had band-aided into an empowerment entity, Inkwenkwezi, via Bookmark, a shadowy financial entity, Moneyweb said.

R&E’s audited financial statements for the year to December 31, 2004 are yet to be published.

R&E was suspended from the JSE on August 1, and delisted from the Nasdaq in the US last Wednesday night because it had failed to post its results.

"It is becoming increasingly apparent that Kebble had little, if any, intention of ever publishing R&E’s audited 2004 figures," Moneyweb said.

R&E’s new chief executive officer, Peter Gray, on the Thursday of the past week announced the withdrawal of R&E’s preliminary (unaudited) 2004 results, published on April 29.

On the same day, R&E’s auditors, Charles Orbach & Co., resigned.
Kebble insisted that the stock had been "lent" and would be returned to R&E in mid-2006.

The website said Kebble was known to give special and detailed attention to ensuring that people important to him were paid plenty of money.

In the year to March 31, 2004, the directors of JCI were paid R12 million, double the amount paid the year before.

"Consulting and management fees," which are nowhere explained, rose to R54 million from R23 million. - Sapa

@ Alle

Gehen die schon wieder auf Tauchstation ??
Die Webseiten "www.motogoldmines.com.au" und "www.motogoldmines.de" sind jedenfalls nicht erreichbar.
Würde ja gerne mal mehr nachlesen als in den Boards.
Habt ihr andere Informationen ??
kuddel

Pardon, C D Y

Ein wenig mehr Substanz wäre schon beruhigender.
Wann ist der nächste Kapitalbedarf ??

C R Y RESOURCE CORP.
ANNUAL FINANCIALS
............................... 31.10.2004.....2003.....2002.....3Yr.Growth.% Change
Total Revenue ($000): .. 285.........53..........3......... 852.90
Earnings before
Interest & Tax ($000):....-9,323....-1,713....-1,268.....N/A
Profit/Loss ($000):.........-9,323....-1,713....-1,197.....N/A
Earnings per Share:......-0.26......-0.08...... -0.09.......N/A
Total Assets ($000):......24,232....8,878.....1,770......274.50
Dividends Per Share:......0.00.......0.00.........0.00
Return on Com. Equity:....-58.48...-33.66....-116.30
Employees:...........................4..........N/A...........0

Kuddel

Nun ja, die Finanzen sehen ja nicht so besonders schnuckelig aus:

Crystallex International
ANNUAL FINANCIALS
2004C$ 2003C$ 2002C$ 3Yr.Growth% Change
Total Revenue ($000): 21,341 11,525 14,313 -15.76
Earnings before Interest & Tax ($000):
-58,903 -40,999 -15,553 N/A
Profit/Loss ($000): -60,654 -61,487 -56,460 N/A
Earnings per Share: -0.35 -0.52 -0.67 N/A
Total Assets ($000): 260,119 134,274 182,368 23.83
Dividends Per Share 0.00 0.00 0.00
Return on Com. Equity: -56.65 -92.16 -60.59
Employees: 300 300 N/A

Trailing 12 Month Results
12 Months endedJun 30, 2005, us$ Jun 30, 2004, us$ %Change
Total Revenue ($000): 25,813 4,813,487 -99.49
Profit/Loss ($000): -73,797 -38,102,785 99.82
Earnings per Share: -0.41 -0.54 30.21
Dividends Per Share 0.00 0.00
Number of Shares: 193,824,653 179,968,598

Kuddel

@ Aladin

Wir sollten doch nicht übertreiben, oder stimmt dein Umrechnungskurs nicht ?
Hier ist meine Rechnung (Pick'n Pay Waterfront, Gardens, oder sonstwo, die Preise sind alle gleich bei PP):

Rasierschaum 200ml: ? (brauch ich nicht)
Filet Rind 1kg 13 Euro (= ca. 8 Euro)
Gegrilltes Huhn 8 Euro (= 1/2 Hähnchen 3-4 Euro)
Milch 1 liter 80 cents (= 40 cents)
Pizza take away 6 Euro (= 3-4 Euro)
Zigaretten 2 Euro (? rauche nicht)
Sandwich 3 Euro ( = max. 2 Euro)
Mineralwasser 0.75 1.50 Euro (1,5 Liter = 0,40 Cent))
Bohnenkaffee 1kg 20 Euro (Eduscho = 5 Euro)
40 Teebeutel (Kamille) 3 Euro ( = 2 Euro)
Schokolade (imp) 3 Euro (kostet die Schweizer !!)
Wein ab 8 Euro ( = ab 1,50 Euro)
Waschpulver 1 kg 5 Euro (ab 2 Euro)

Es gibt übrigens auch gute südafrikanische Produkte, man muss keine teuren Importe kaufen.

Gruß Kuddel

@ Aladin

Wo kaufst du denn ein ??
Schau doch mal beim Pick'n Pay vorbei !!

Kuddel

Nun dauert es schon ein paar Monate, da kommt es auf ein paar mehr oder weniger auch nicht an - oder ? Hauptsache Ende gut - alles gut.

Norilsk may extend Gold Fields expiry date, says Swanepoel
April 11, 2005

Russia's Norilsk Nickel might have a strong interest in extending a key deal to support Harmony's $.4.8 billion (R30 billion) hostile bid for Gold Fields, Bernard Swanepoel, Harmony's chief executive, said on Friday.

Many analysts have written off the possibility that Norilsk, Gold Fields' largest shareholder, would extend the May 20 expiry of a deal to tender its Gold Fields' stake to Harmony.

Without an extension, Harmony's bid is likely to fail since a ruling from competition authorities is not due until roughly mid-May.

But Swanepoel said the situation was more complex than many realised as Norilsk could have many reasons to keep Harmony's bid alive.

This included keeping in play the rivalry between Harmony and Gold Fields, which Swanepoel said had boosted Gold Fields' shares.

"Norilsk is in a good position. They know what Harmony's alternative is and they are awaiting Gold Fields' alternative. If Gold Fields doesn't come up with an alternative, then you could argue that Norilsk has a real interest in extending the irrevocable."

Swanepoel said his recent talks with Norilsk went deeper than previously made known and the two sides had agreed on the conditions under which Norilsk would extend its commitment.

Previously Harmony has merely said that it had agreed during a meeting last month with Norilsk that it was too early to decide on extending the deal.

"In my interactions with Norilsk, we are very clear on what the circumstances are under which it would make a lot of sense to extend the irrevocable."

Those agreed conditions were confidential but if one looked at the bid from Norilsk's perspective, one could understand what might motivate the firm, he added.

For example, if Norilsk effectively let the Harmony bid die, it might worry about returning to a tense relationship with Gold Fields.

When Norilsk first bought its Gold Fields stake, Gold Fields had appointed advisers to defend against possible hostile takeover action from Norilsk and relations had been strained before Harmony's bid appeared, Swanepoel said.

Now Norilsk was probably enjoying being wooed by Gold Fields.

"They're also in a position where for the first time, Gold Fields is treating them with the respect that the biggest shareholder should get.

"Gold Fields is doing a lot of running trying to convince Norilsk there are better proposals. How can you blame Norilsk for that?"
- Reuters

Da warten wir doch alle, dass der Rand schwächer wird, damit endlich die Südafrika-Goldminen Richtung Norden abgehen, aber da wird wohl nun doch so schnell nichts draus.
Siehe nachstehenden Artikel aus "Business Report" vom 23.11.2004.
Kuddel.
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Rate cut more likely early in 2005 than in December

November 23, 2004

By Daphne Fourie

The Reserve Bank's monetary policy committee meets for the last time this year, on December 8 and 9, and there are divided views on the outcome of this meeting.

But there are only two possible outcomes. Firstly, the bank could cut the repo rate by 50 basis points, as reflected by forward rates, which are pricing in close to a 100 percent probability of a 50 basis point rate cut.

Alternatively, the bank may leave rates unchanged. The Reuters consensus forecast indicates that most economists believe this will be the outcome.

The major factor in support of a rate cut is the low inflation rate, which has been supported by the strong rand
"The bank will keep rates on hold due to consumer spending levels"
. CPIX, the bank's official inflation measure, reached a low of 3.7 percent in October, and although it is expected to increase from this level, there is consensus that it will remain within the target range of 3 percent to 6 percent in the next two years.

The currency broke the key R6 to the dollar level this month, supported by positive sentiment towards South Africa on the back of improving macroeconomic variables and dollar weakness.

Reuters forecasts indicate that most economists believe the rand will weaken steadily in the near to medium term.

Although the strong currency is good for the inflation outlook, it is hurting exports and employment, with various camps crying out for intervention.

If currency strength persists, there is a risk the bank might undershoot the inflation target. However, the bank has explicitly said it would not intervene, so it seems a rate cut may be the only option available to weaken the currency.

Factors that are not supportive of another rate cut include continuing strong consumer demand, high oil prices, strong local economic growth and recent signs that there may still be life in the US economy, which implies rising global interest rates.

Although the oil price has come off its recent highs, the cost is still quite high, even at $40 a barrel. The northern hemisphere has entered winter, which is a high-demand period for oil, implying that oil prices may remain at these levels for longer.

Over the past few months there has been a pronounced increase in consumer demand, as evidenced by strong retail sales and new vehicle sales.

We have also seen private sector credit extension at very high levels, which means consumers are borrowing in order to spend, and this tends to be inflationary.

The strong consumer demand is also putting some pressure on the current account. At 2.5 percent of gross domestic product, the current account deficit is being financed by capital flows, but this may not be sustainable.

Since consumer demand is normally quite high during December, it implies that an interest rate cut at this meeting would add fuel to consumer spending and credit demand.

I am of the view that the bank will keep rates on hold at the December meeting due to concerns that we are entering a period of the year that is characterised by abnormally high consumer spending. I would expect the Reserve Bank to remain cautious, especially considering that consumer spending has been quite strong over the recent past.

If one considers the bank's actions historically, it has been sensitive about cutting rates during this period of the year. But I believe that if the strong currency does persist, and the oil price continues to come off the recent highs, a reduction in the repo rate at the February 2005 meeting remains a possibility.

Daphne Fourie is a fixed-interest dealer at Futuregrowth Asset Management

Paßt auch dazu. Aus "Business Report".
Kuddel.
--------------------------------------------------------------

Gold Fields still has some tricks up its sleeve

By Stewart Bailey

New York - Gold Fields, fighting the hostile bid from smaller rival Harmony Gold Mining, had alternative strategies if its plan to buy Canada's Iamgold was not approved, chief executive Ian Cockerill said on Friday.

"We have alternatives in place," Cockerill said. "We can pick them off the shelf, depending on the circumstances."

Gold Fields shareholders will vote on December 7 on whether to approve the $2.1 billion (R12.6 billion) purchase of Iamgold.

A condition of Harmony's R50 billion all share bid for Gold Fields is that shareholders reject the plan. Norilsk Nickel, which owns 20.3 percent of Gold Fields, supports Harmony's bid.

Cockerill said some Gold Fields shareholders had "reservations" about the terms of the planned Iamgold purchase, which proposed that Gold Fields' mines outside of South Africa be combined with Iamgold's assets in a separate company that would trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

Iamgold, with shares in gold mines in Mali and Ghana, reported a net loss of $926 000 for the quarter to September, from a profit of $4.59 million a year ago.

Gold Fields was paying too much, Harmony said on October 18 when it made its offer.

"It looks like Gold Fields might be getting cold feet after hearing from their shareholders that they do not like the deal," said Wayne McCurrie at Momentum Multimanagers.

"I don't think this Iamgold deal is going to go through."

The acquisition of Iamgold may help Gold Fields boost the value of its international properties. The rand's 94 percent gain against the dollar since 2001 has slashed profit in South Africa and the company must, by empowerment law, sell a quarter of its domestic mines to black investors.

"We remain committed to the Iamgold deal and we would be disappointed if it did not go through," Cockerill said. "But it won't be a train smash. We would move quickly to implement alternative strategies."

Three of four Gold Fields defences against the Harmony bid have been rejected by South African courts and regulators.

The fourth, an application to the US district court in New York to have the offer declared unlawful, has yet to be ruled on.

Harmony's offer of 1.27 of its shares for each Gold Fields share was too low, McCurrie said.

At that price, "it is just not going to fly". - Bloomberg

@ Pauli:
Die Nachricht ist heute auch im "Business Report", scheint also doch was dran zu sein.
Schätze die Situation genauso ein wie du. Wird interessant.
Kuddel.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Gold Fields pulling out all stops to thwart Harmony

November 22, 2004

Johannesburg - Gold Fields offered to buy Norilsk Nickel's 20 percent stake in it for about $2 billion (R12 billion) to thwart the hostile takeover by Harmony, the Sunday Telegraph newspaper reported, citing an unidentified executive.

Gold Fields would use cash raised by selling its $3.5 billion in mining assets outside South Africa to buy Norilsk's holding, hoping to reverse Norilsk's support for Harmony's all-share offer.

The sale of international assets would proceed if Gold Fields shareholders rejected the company's $2.1 billion purchase of Iamgold on December 7.

"I do not want to comment on speculation of this nature," said Gold Fields spokesperson Willie Jacobsz at the weekend.

Gold Fields might sell assets and return the cash to shareholders to get them to vote against Harmony's R50 billion bid, he said.

The Observer newspaper, citing unidentified people, reported that Gold Fields might seek a counterbid from Newmont Mining to thwart the hostile takeover.

Gold Fields advisers at Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase were considering the defence plan alongside another to sell global businesses worth $3.5 billion to bidders such as Placer Dome and Sual Group.

"We are examining all available options to unlock shareholder value," said Colin Coleman, the managing director at Goldman Sachs in South Africa. John Coulter, the chief executive of JPMorgan's South African unit, declined to comment.

Meanwhile, Harmony yesterday again urged Gold Fields' shareholders to accept its offer for Gold Fields' entire share capital.

This was after the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had declared the registration statement on Form F4, with respect to the Harmony consideration shares to be issued pursuant to the US offer for Gold Fields, effective.

Harmony said it had to remove several pages from its F4 filing with the commission.

Gold Fields had "continued to refuse to release its 2004 financial statements to Harmony".

Late on Friday evening, the SEC granted the registration of the Form F4 without the pages.

Aus "BUSINESS DAY" vom 20.11.2004

'Harmony bid destroyed R10bn for shareholders'

Harmony's (HAR) hostile bid for rival gold miner Gold Fields (GFI) has already destroyed as much as 10
billion rand in shareholder value for both companies, according to Gold Fields CEO Ian Cockerill.

Cockerill made another impassioned appeal to Gold Fields shareholders to reject Harmony's two-stage offer for the company, the first stage of which closes on November 26.

"Since Harmony made its hostile and unwelcome bid, as much as 10 billion rand in the value of both companies has been destroyed," he asserted.

He said that Gold Fields' share price had fallen from 94.02 rand on October15 to 89.06 rand on November 17.

"Unless Harmony's hostile and coercive offer is stopped, the one certain outcome of this unsolicited and unwelcome bid will be the further destruction of shareholder value - for me and for all the other Gold Fields
shareholders.
"I urge you to stop any more value destruction. Reject the hostile Harmony offer and do not tender your shares or ADSs (American depositary shares)," Cockerill implored shareholders.

I-Net Bridge

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nun, Mr Cockeril ist an diesem Preisverfall selber schuld.
Sobald die Übernahme perfekt ist, wird man sehen wie der Kurs abgeht.
Kuddel.

Das läuft im Moment nicht gut für GFI.
Kuddel
---------------------------------------------------------

Third time unlucky for Gold Fields

By John Fraser

Harmony last night notched up a hat trick of local legal victories against Gold Fields, as the Competition Tribunal became the third South African institution to reject efforts by Gold Fields to torpedo its hostile takeover bid.

Gold Fields has mounted a series of legal challenges both in SA and the US in a bid to fend off Harmony's bid.

The tribunal rejected Gold Fields' objection to the early settlement offer, saying the offer did not amount to a merger, and it accepted Harmony's undertaking that the existing relationship with Norilsk did not go beyond Norilsk's undertaking to sell its 20% of Gold Fields to Harmony.

Gold Fields had asked the tribunal to rule that Harmony was acting in concert with Norilsk Nickel of Russia, and that Harmony's so-called early settlement offer for 34,9% of Gold Fields shares, which expires on Friday next week, would effectively give Harmony control of Gold Fields.

Its loss at the tribunal yesterday was the third and final leg of Gold Fields' local fight against the takeover after similar losses at the Securities Regulation Panel and the Johannesburg High Court.

A further legal challenge was mounted by Gold Fields on Wednesday this week before a New York court, and judgment is expected today.

Gold Fields spokesman Willie Jacobz said yesterday that his group was going to appeal against all three local rulings.

The first appeal will be heard by the Securities Regulation Panel today, and the second next week at the Supreme Court of Appeals.

The Competition Appeal Court is also due to hold a hearing next week on yesterday's ruling by the tribunal.

On Tuesday Gold Fields took solace from the support it received from 20% shareholder and key Harmony ally, Norilsk , which had pledged its support for the Harmony bid.

Norilsk's decision to vote for the re-election of Gold Fields chairman Chris Thompson and others instrumental in fighting the bid could mean that it might have had a change of heart on the hostile bid.

Gold Fields continued its efforts to persuade its shareholders to oppose the Harmony offer.

Yesterday it released information that its South African operations were becoming more profitable and cost-effective as margins were improving.

"Production for the December 2004 quarter is expected to increase between 5%-6% over that reported in the September 2004 quarter, with the South African operations expected to improve by approximately 3%," it said .

"Rand per kilogramme unit costs are expected to improve by approximately 2%, and total rand per ton costs by more than 5% on a group-wide basis, despite continuing inflationary pressures.

"We are delighted with this hat trick," said Harmony director Ferdi Dippenaar. "The early settlement offer is open, we have seen some support, and the less legal uncertainty there is the more people will support our offer."

Business Day

Hier das Neueste aus "BUSINESS DAY" vom 18.11.2004
So gute Karten hat GFI nicht vor Gericht!
Kuddel.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Gold Fields application for interdict dismissed

The Competition Tribunal has dismissed an urgent application brought by gold mining group Gold Fields (GFI) to interdict the implementation of an early settlement offer which is the first stage of rival Harmony's (HAR) two part bid for Gold Fields.

Gold Fields had argued that this amounted to implementation of a merger without prior notification.

The Tribunal after analysing the evidence on the papers found that Gold Fields had failed to make out case that the early settlement constituted a merger and denied Gold Field relief.

On the question of the relationship with Russian mining group Norilsk, which has a 20.03% stake in Gold Fields, the Tribunal found that Gold Fields had not established that the understanding had gone beyond the undertaking.
Although evidence of a merchant banker's presentation had been read out at the hearing by Gold Field's counsel, to attempt to support the contention that Harmony and Norilsk were concert parties, the Tribunal placed no reliance on this, as the document had not been placed in context, nor had the Harmony and Norilsk been given an opportunity to explain it.

Tribunal Chairperson David Lewis, in a separate concurring opinion, said that a different finding on joint control may well have been justified had there been other agreements already concluded between Harmony and Norilsk.

"However," he said, "my willingness to accept Harmony and Norilsk's undertakings that they have formed an opportunistic alliance is bolstered by the knowledge - and, I have no doubt, Harmony and Norilsk are accordingly advised by their legal advisers - of the serious consequences that would flow from having perjured themselves before several regulatory bodies both in South Africa and the United States.

"Apart from the criminal sanction that this would invite, in terms of the Competition Act alone they would also lay themselves open to a swingeing administrative penalty as well as the very real prospect of having to unwind a merger deceitfully implemented.

"The reputational consequences for both Harmony and Norilsk, would, of course, be incalculable".

He also cautioned that the Competition Act should not be used to chill hostile mergers which are an important part of the very competitive process that the Tribunal is mandated to defend and promote.

The early settlement offer was an offer to buy up to 34.9% of Gold Fields shares other than those of Norilsk, prior to the 26th November.

If the early settlement was successful Harmony would acquire up to 34.9% of Gold Fields shares, which it indicated, it would use to vote against the Gold Fields board's proposal for a merger with IAMGold of Canada.

Norilsk, which owns 20,03 % of Gold Fields shares, had given an undertaking to Harmony to vote against the resolution as well.

The relief sought, if granted, would prevent Harmony and Norilsk from voting their shares at the meeting on 7th December.

Gold Fields had argued that the early settlement offer amounts to the implementation of a merger. Although it was common cause that Harmony has not notified the early settlement offer as a merger with the Competition Commission, but only the second stage (termed the subsequent offer) where it offer to acquire up to 100% of Gold Fields, there was a dispute as to whether it involved the implementation of a merger.

Gold Fields had argued that there were three reasons why the early settlement was a merger, and thus could not be implemented without prior competition authority approval.

In the first place Gold Fields argued that two offers from Harmony are part of a single bid for control that was not legally or factually capable of separate implementation.

In the alternative, it argued that the early settlement offer taken as a separate transaction would give Harmony the ability to control Gold Fields on its own, as a 34,9% holding would give it the ability to vote the
majority of shares at a general meeting of shareholders, or jointly with Norilsk, which has given Harmony an irrevocable undertaking to vote against the IAMGold resolution at the 7th December meeting and to accept the offer of Harmony shares in the subsequent offer, albeit subject to certain caveats.

Harmony and Norilsk had both rejected this construction of the facts.

The Tribunal found that the early settlement offer, even if accepted, was still subject to a number of contingencies and so it was not certain that the subsequent offer followed seamlessly from the first.

On the question of sole control the Tribunal found that evidence of voting attendances at Gold Field's general meetings was equivocal, depending on the time period on which they were looked at, and it was by no means certain that Harmony could command a majority with 34.9% of the votes.

It also relied on statements by Gold Fields CEO, Cockerill, who had also expressed doubt on this point.

Although raised as an issue at the hearing the Tribunal did not decide whether it had the power to interdict the unlawful implementation of the merger, as it stated it was not necessary to it to do so for the purpose of
this decision.

I-Net Bridge

@ Pauli

Grundsätzlich möchte ich deinen Schlussfolgerungen zustimmen.

HAR wird mit Sicherheit den feindlichen Übernahmeversuch nicht gestartet haben, ohne sich abzusichern, sowohl politisch (schließlich würden als Folge einer erfolgreichen Übernahme eine Vielzahl von Arbeitsplätzen abgebaut) als auch bei den größten Aktionären (u.a. Norilsk Nickel).

Man kann auch davon ausgehen, dass vor dem Übernahmeangebot eine ‚friedliche’ Lösung versucht worden ist. Da dies anscheinend nicht in das Konzept von GFI passte, ist es also zu der ‚unerwünschten’ Offerte gekommen. Man kann auch nur spekulieren, dass der geplante Zusammenschluss zwischen GFI und Iamgold der Auslöser für das HAR-Übernahmeangebot war. Es spricht aber manches dafür.

Wenn du schreibst, dass du nach keinen „interessengeleiteten“ Meinungen fragst, was machst du dann hier im Board ?
Ich denke, dass dieses Board dazu da ist, Informationen und Meinungen auszutauschen. Ein Urteil muss man sich dann selber bilden. Wie du selbst erklärst, hast du sowohl Aktien von HAR wie GFI. Also hast du etwa keine Interessen ???

Ich habe auch etwa zu gleichen Teilen Aktien von HAR und GFI. Also bin ich auch – genau wie du - interessengeleitet, weil wir beide natürlich möchten, dass diese Aktien steigen und das in einem Umfeld, auf das wir ja schon jahrelang gewartet haben! HAR ist ja nach Ankündigung der Übernahmeofferte fürchterlich unter die Räder gekommen und es zeigt sich, dass der Zeitpunkt für den Übernahmeversuch ausgesprochen ungeschickt war – unabhängig davon, ob das Übernahmeangebot Sinn macht oder nicht. Also spricht deshalb wohl manches dafür, dass der GFI-Iamgold-Deal der Auslöser war.

Womit fährt also der geplagte Aktienbesitzer besser: mit HAR oder GFI oder beiden zusammen?

Während HAR in den letzten Jahren immer um rund 30 % höher bewertet war als GFI (und das wohl nicht ohne Grund) hat die Unsicherheit über das erfolgreiche Gelingen HAR einen herben Abschlag beschert, während GFI so ungefähr um den Aufschlag besser liegt.

Wenn man sich die anderen feindlichen Übernahmeversuche der letzten Jahre ins Gedächtnis ruft, so spricht manches dafür, dass es auch bei HAR/GFI letztlich doch dazu kommt – letztlich ist alles eine Frage des Preises (siehe beispielsweise Vodafone-Mannesmann). Wenn diejenigen, die die Fusion beschließen können, vernünftig sind, dann bringen sie das jetzt schnell über die Bühne, sonst geht der gestiegene Goldpreis an den Aktienbewertungen vorüber und das nützt denen dann auch nichts.

Was nützt aber der Zusammenschluss? Einmal dürfte nicht von der Hand zu weisen sein, dass HAR/GFI als dann größter Goldprozent eine marktbeeinflussende Stellung innehat - vor allem aber könnten die Betriebskosten der südafrikanischen Minen gesenkt und damit wieder Gewinne realisiert werden (dazu hat ja HAR schon Stellung bezogen). Das ist nicht nur für HAR mit den höheren Kosten notwendig, auch die Kostenstruktur von GFI ist nicht viel rosiger. Denn die erhoffte nachhaltige und stärkere Schwächung des Rand ist ja bisher nicht eingetreten und wohl auch nicht abzusehen (Rand liegt aktuell schon wieder unter der 6 USD-Marke). Und vor allem darauf zu setzen wäre fahrlässig. Und ob der Goldpreis noch weiter steigen wird und damit höhere Erlöse beschert ist ebenso wenig vorhersagbar. Die HAR-Strategie der Kostensenkung ist also der logische Weg. Kommt es zusätzlich zu einer Randabschwächung, umso besser.

Bisher jedenfalls hat sich HAR als recht geschickt herausgestellt, was Zusammenschlüsse, Aufkäufe und Kooperationen betraf (siehe z.B. in jüngerer Vergangenheit ARM/Avmin/Avgold). Aus Evander hat HAR eine profitable Mine gemacht; als Evander noch zu GFI gehörte, wollte GFI Evander schließen. GoldFields war interessant, als es noch nicht GFI war, nämlich Driefontein, Beatrix und Kloof. Dies waren die „besseren“ Minen als die von HAR, u.a. Randfontein, Elendsrand. Wer schon länger in Südafrikaminen investiert ist, wird sich sicherlich erinnern.

Zusammengefasst setze ich darauf, dass HAR die Übernahmeschlacht gewinnt (sollte die logische Folge sein) und wenn die Wunden geleckt sind, marschiert auch die Aktie wieder gen Norden (es sollte aber nicht allzu lange Zeit ins Land gehen).

Ob nun der auf den Hauptversammlungen beschlossene Zusammenschluss von GFI und Iamgold dann noch vollzogen werden muss ? – ich bin kein Jurist (aber selbst die werden sich da wohl auch nicht eins sein), aber wenn, dann wird man Wege finden, das wieder rückgängig zu machen, z.B. neue Hauptversammlungsbeschlüsse. Sonst musst du mal Swanepoel oder Cockeril fragen, wenn du eine fundierte und interessenneutrale Aussage haben willst – aber ich fürchte, die sind ganz besonders stark interessengeleitet.

Kuddel.

Zudem gleichen Thema ein Bericht in "BUSINESS DAY" vom 17.11.2004

Norilsk backs Gold Fields

Harmony's hostile bid for Gold Fields may be heading for a setback after its key ally in the bid, Norilsk of Russia, gave its backing to Gold Fields bosses at the company's annual general meeting yesterday.
Norilsk, which owns a 20% stake in Gold Fields, has signed an irrevocable undertaking that it will support Harmony's bid and that it will vote against the planned merger of Gold Fields' international mining assets with those of Canada's IAMGOLD.

But the undertaking provides Norilsk an opt-out if a better offer than Harmony 's comes along.

Independent Johannesburg lawyer Emile Myburgh said "the letter is only a commitment regarding Harmony's current offer. It does not rule out another bidder putting in a superior offer to Gold Fields than Harmony's.

"It does not restrict Norilsk in accepting other better offers for its Gold Fields shares, even if such an offer were to emanate from Harmony itself."

At yesterday's meeting, Norilsk is understood to have voted in favour of the reappointment of four Gold Fields nonexecutive directors, including chairman Chris Thompson and Mvelaphanda's Tokyo Sexwale, who are crucial in fighting off Harmony's bid.

Thompson is set to head the new company that Gold Fields is forming through a reverse-listing into IAMGOLD and which will house the non- Southern African Development Community assets of Gold Fields.

It has always been believed that Norilsk teamed up with Harmony in the hostile bid against Gold Fields because it was opposed to the IAMGOLD transaction.

However, at yesterday's Gold Fields shareholders' meeting Norilsk also voted in favour of a R1,2m retainer for Thompson for activities that included putting together the IAMGOLD deal.

Speculation was rife in the market yesterday afternoon that Norilsk was under pressure from the Russian authorities to offload its Gold Fields shares.

Gold Fields CE Ian Cockerill said yesterday it was "not an impossibility" that dialogue could be rekindled between his company and Norilsk.

If Norilsk is forced to sell its stock, Gold Fields would be delighted to help ensure that the shares were placed with a friendly party.

Commenting on yesterday's meeting, an analyst said logic suggested Norilsk would have signalled its displeasure with Gold Fields by voting against several resolutions at the shareholders' meeting.

"The fact that Norilsk seems to be backing Chris Thompson's reappointment and pay packet suggests that something is happening behind the scenes and that may well spell trouble for Harmony."

However, Harmony director Ferdi Dippenaar played down the significance of the Norilsk vote at the Gold Fields meeting.

He said last night he was "sure Norilsk aren't switching sides".

Cockerill said after the meeting, however, that he believed his management team had won "very strong support" from its shareholders.

"It is a very clear indication they are not unhappy with what we are trying to do," he said.

"There is a lot more support for this company than people will have you believe.

"Shareholders are annoyed at the value destruction caused by the hostile Harmony offer they are seeing red ink."

Cockerill said that since the launch of the bid on October 15 almost R7bn in combined potential value for shareholders of the two companies had been destroyed.

This resulted from an 11% fall in the share price of Gold Fields, from R94,02 to R83,50, and a 21% decline in Harmony's share price, from R83,50 to R65,70.

"Gold Fields and Harmony shareholders have been excluded from the current bull run in the market," he said.

Thompson and Harmony CE Bernard Swanepoel are both due to appear in a New York courtroom today, where Gold Fields is launching the latest of a series of legal challenges against the hostile Harmony offer.

Meanwhile, Cockerill said the US regulatory authorities had required Harmony to remove sections from its preliminary prospectus to Gold Fields shareholders. These sections include financial data.

Business Day

Aus "BUSINESS REPORT" vom 17.11.2004

Norilsk vote eases disharmony at Gold Fields

November 17, 2004

By Nicky Smith

Johannesburg - Gold Fields and its largest shareholder, Russia's Norilsk Nickel, may be moving closer together as the embattled South African gold mining house fights for its life against a hostile bid from smaller rival Harmony Gold.

When Harmony announced its ambition to create the world's largest gold company four weeks ago, it made it clear that it would not have launched its attack on Gold Fields without the support of the Russians.

At Gold Fields' annual general meeting (AGM), Norilsk voted in favour of the resolution to pay a special retainer to Chris Thompson, Gold Fields' chairman, but appeared to have abstained from voting on resolutions to re-elect directors, raising speculation - neither confirmed nor denied by Gold Fields - that the strained relationship between the two could be on the mend.

Speaking at the AGM yesterday Gold Fields chief executive Ian Cockerill refused to say whether Gold Fields and Norilsk had been in discussions to resolve the awkwardness in their relationship.

"No comment," the normally obliging Cockerill said. "But nothing is impossible. I would be delighted if Gold Fields and Norilsk could find each other again. I don't think it's an impossibility."

When rumours that Gold Fields could be a takeover target first emerged about three months ago observers agreed that Norilsk was the likely predator.

At the time, Gold Fields played this down, sticking to its line that the relationship between the two companies was good and that they were exploring ways for the two of them to work together. Norilsk's support for Harmony's offer on October 18 blind-sided Gold Fields.

One of Gold Fields' defence advisers hinted last week that one of the strategies that would still need to be pursued was to try and neutralise the threat posed by the Russians.

Just what has been motivating Norilsk is unclear. It could be that there is growing pressure on Norilsk from the Kremlin to get on the right side of Russia's foreign exchange control regulations. Moscow has reportedly taken a dim view of Norilsk spending $1.17 billion (R7.07 billion) on its 20 percent stake in Gold Fields without its permission.

Investors have not enjoyed the battle and Thompson said that, since the bid was announced, Harmony and Gold Fields shareholders had lost a combined R7 billion of their companies' values.

Cockerill said the lost opportunity for shareholders on the bull run in the gold market was about $2 billion. Gold Fields shareholders voted in favour yesterday of all resolutions at the meeting except three.

These were: the placement of shares under the control of the directors; the issuing of shares for cash; and the changing of the company's articles of association.

Cockerill also dismissed the allegations made by Harmony on Monday that the head of security for Gold Fields, Pine Pienaar, had attempted to get a security officer at Harmony, whose name is known to Business Report, to be a spy for Gold Fields. Harmony had no comment on the outcome of the AGM.