Beiträge von Kuddel

"Wenn der Hahn kräht auf dem Mist, dann ändert sich das Wetter oder es bleibt wie es ist!"

Posted to the web on: 06 December 2005

Mboweni spikes talk of looming rate hike

Kevin O’Grady

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Economics Editor

RESERVE Bank governor Tito Mboweni has finally put paid to speculation about an imminent interest rate hike, listing nine reasons last night why the bank was unlikely to hike rates at its meeting starting tomorrow.

His speech at a year-end function for journalists contrasted sharply with the hawkish comments of the last meeting of the Bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) in October.

At that meeting Mboweni warned South Africans to start tightening their belts in anticipation of tighter monetary policy.

In his speech entitled “So, All Things Never Remain The Same!”, Mboweni said a lot had changed for the better since the MPC’s more gloomy October outlook.

These included:

Oil prices had started to drop.

“Unit labour costs have not jumped higher as we thought might happen.”

“The exchange rate of the rand has strengthened, thereby ensuring a cushion against imported inflation.”

CPIX inflation (consumer inflation less interest costs on mortgages) “has come out less than expected”.

Producer price inflation had also dropped.

“Global inflation has not gone up as initially thought.”

“Gross domestic product growth figures show that the economy is growing nicely, so it needs no monetary or fiscal accommodation.”

“Inflation expectations … are showing a slightly downward trend.”

Widening trade deficits would result in bigger deficits on the current account of the balance of payments, which could weaken the rand and worsen the inflation outlook. “Nevertheless the overall balance of payments is looking good,” Mboweni said.

Drawing on the Latin phrase ceteris paribus, meaning “all else being equal”, Mboweni said: “It’s terrible when that principle is violated just before a meeting of the MPC.

“Based on the assumptions at the previous MPC meeting that the inflation outlook was a little concerning, the governor was mandated to warn the country that they needed to be careful.

“How things have changed.

“Since the last meeting of the MPC, the ceteris paribus principle has not held,” he said.

Posted to the web on: 02 December 2005

Reserve Bank expected to hold interest rates

Reuters
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

THE Reserve Bank will leave interest rates steady at its policy meeting next week, and may keep monetary policy on hold to the end of 2006 as inflation pressures abate, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.

All 18 economists predicted the Reserve Bank would keep its key repo rate steady at 7% when its December 7-8 meeting ends, with retreating oil prices and a rallying rand currency taking the lid off price pressures.

Eight respondents believe that interest rates will remain unchanged at near historic lows until the end of next year, as concerns that inflation may breach the upper end of its 3%-6% target rapidly subside.

Eight others think that interest rates will rise, although some see a clear risk to their scenario given a raft of data suggesting the anticipated first quarter peak in the targeted CPIX inflation rate will not be as high as earlier thought.

Two dissenters even see another cut in interest rates in the middle of 2006, given that favourable base effects which reduce the annual increase for CPIX will come into play.

"It is very difficult to predict what will happen at the moment. It doesn’t look like inflation will break the target any time soon which means they might hold interest rates steady through 2006," said Nedbank chief economist Dennis Dykes.

"We still think the bank will hike rates by 50 basis points in February to head off things like asset price growth .. but you could even paint a scenario where interest rates are cut next year, particularly if the rand goes to 6/dollar."

Figures released two weeks ago showed that the annual rise in CPIX, which excludes volatile home loan costs, slowed to 4.4% in October from 4.7% in September - the second consecutive month it had abated.

Prices of factory goods as measured by the PPI index also subsided during the month.

But more importantly for the outlook, oil prices have retreated well off record peaks just above $70 a barrel, although they are nudging back up towards $59 as the northern hemisphere winter bites.

At the same time, the rand has appreciated strongly against the dollar, euro and pound in a trend which will keep imported price pressures at bay, even if crude prices remain steep.

All of this means that comments by central bank governor Tito Mboweni in late October warning that the next move in interest rates was likely to be upwards - and possibly imminent - had been overtaken by events, analysts said.

"It was an exercise in curbing inflation expectations. He did it effectively but that is the sum of it and there’s no reason to raise interest rates," said Efficient Research economist Nico Kelder.

Kelder sees interest rates falling by half a percentage point in August next year. The Bank has already lowered its repo rate by 6.50 percentage points between June 2003 and April 2005, driving commercial lending rates to 25-year lows.

More economists are subscribing to the view that interest rates will be kept unchanged for at least a year longer, as the central bank tries to keep its policy in line with government efforts to boost growth, without jeopardising inflation.

Sanlam group economist Jac Laubscher, who was previously expecting a rate hike next year, is one of them.

"What I am looking for from the MPC next week is communication rather than the decision. I want to know if they are aiming for the midpoint of the inflation target or if they are happy with 5.5%-6%," he said.

"If I take the view they are happy with this then there is no reason to hike rates." The central bank has said it expects CPIX to peak just above 5.5% in the first half of 2006.

SA motor industry expects 2005 to end on high note

After yet another exceptional month for vehicles sales, South African motor manufacturers expect 2005 to finish on a high note

After yet another exceptional month for vehicles sales, South African motor manufacturers expect 2005 to finish on a high note.

The National Association of Automobile Manufacturers (Naamsa) has released vehicles sales figures for November - sales for the first eleven months of the calendar year rose by 25.5% y/y to 519 267 units.

McCarthy Motor Holdings (MCC) chairman Brand Pretorius said in a statement that it was clear that motor industry was heading for an exceptionally strong finish for what had been a remarkable year.

"2005 was unique in the sense that all four major segments of the market experienced extremely favourable trading conditions."

Pretorius noted that November proved to be yet another exceptionally strong sales month for the South African motor industry, with record total vehicle sales of 55,553 units achieved by Naamsa and non-reporters, Associated Motor Holdings (AMH).

For the year-to-date, Naamsa reported growth of 25.5% when compared to the same period in 2004, recording 519 267 sales.

"Vehicle purchases by government departments were also high due to the renewal of ageing fleets and increased spending on infrastructural projects," said Pretorius. "No wonder then that new vehicle sales exceeded even the most optimistic expectations this year."

He added that all indications were that the year would finish on a high note and that the industry would achieve unit sales exceeding 605 000 units (non reporters included).

"On the back of several months of unprecedented market buoyancy, predictions that the industry will break through the 500,000 unit barrier have been borne out. With one trading month still remaining, the final total retail figure for 2005 looks very promising for the industry in general," said General Motors South Africa (GMSA) Director of Sales and Marketing Malcolm Gauld.

"With GMSA producing satisfactory results for the November retail month, and with good economic fundamentals still driving the industry forward, GMSA also looks forward to ending 2005 with record annual sales," said Gauld.

He added that the successes and gains the company had made to date served as a solid platform for increased growth and a fresh assault on the local market in 2006 with products such as the recently launched range of Opel van-bodied commercial vehicles.

"Demand for new vehicles remains high and is driven by the continued strength of the economy, low interest rates, static prices and aggressive trading conditions that favour the consumer," Nissan South Africa director of marketing and sales Roel de Vries said. "A shortage of supply of locally manufactured vehicles to our dealers prevented Nissan from capitalising fully on the buoyant trading conditions."

However, good sales of imported vehicles ensured that the Nissan 350Z remains SA's most popular sports car and the Nissan X-TRAIL maintains its position as the country's best-selling SUV."

Volkswagen (VW) of SA Sales and Marketing GM Mike Glendinning said: "VW's November 2005 sales were 24% up on November 2004."

"2005 year-to-date sales for the VW brand now show growth of 32% when compared to the 2004 January to November period.

"The Audi brand has also showed significant improvement. Year-to-date 2005 sales have shown growth of 20% in comparison to the same period in 2004," he added.

Glendinning said that the all-time record performance of new car sales during 2005 could certainly be associated with buoyant economic conditions in circumstances where new car pricing has been declining in both real and nominal terms and where competitive circumstances in the market had been driving steady improvements in new car affordability.

He said: "The demand side of the economy is still being driven by a low inflation and interest rate environment, growth-orientated fiscal policy, continuous gains in real income and net employment, high levels of both business and consumer confidence, steadily escalating wealth as house prices continue growing, and the JSE continues testing new highs on a regular basis.

"Given these circumstances, therefore, while growth rates may slow somewhat, in the absence of any unexpected negative developments, 2006 looks set to deliver another year of buoyant economic circumstances and increasing prosperity for the country, an environment that is likely to promote the continuation of strong demand for new passenger cars during the coming year, after a record breaking 2005," he concluded.- I-Net Bridge

Published on the web by Business Report on December 2, 2005.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
© Business Report 2005. All rights reserved.

Police arrest suspect in German tour bus robbery

By Leanne Raymond

While police arrested a 20-year old man yesterday in connection with Wednesday's armed robbery of a tour bus carrying German travel agents in Khayelitsha, a group of tourism roleplayers met in the city to condemn the incident.

The Tourism Business Council of South Africa (TBCSA) brought together stakeholders from Cape Town and Khayelitsha to express their outrage - saying the incident displayed how a few bad apples can damage Cape Town's image as an excellent tourism destination.

"When you steal from a tourist you are stealing from the economy.

This sector has the potential to make a positive difference in the lives of all South Africans. The responsibility lies in all our hands to ensure tourists have a good and safe time," TBCSA executive director Tanya Abrahamse said.

TBCSA's views were echoed by SA Tourism, local tourism MEC Lynne Brown, and tourism minister Marthinus van Schalkwyk.

"Crimes against tourists affect not only the victims but every community in South Africa. When a tourist is robbed it is a crime against our own future," said Van Schalkwyk.

Police spokesman Captain Billy Jones said information from the public had led to the arrest; 14 people were brought in for questioning. Dirk Vosloo, of Khayelitsha police station, said he was sure it was an opportunistic crime.

The incident made headline news in Germany - the country that sends the second largest number of visitors to SA.

The agents attacked were part of a promotional tour sponsored by SA Tourism, Cape Town Routes Unlimited and German tour operator Dertour.

Dertour representative, Erwin Dreiser, said police arrived within minutes and Cape Town's Safety and Security Support Unit supplied counsellors for the victims.

All the tourists were offered tickets home, but only two left yesterday morning.

"A small group (of criminals) destroy the positive work done by many of the township's people whom we will keep supporting," said Dreiser.

Dertour has been organising township tours for 15 years and this is the first bad incident.

Yesterday Dertour took 650 Chinese tourists on the same township tour.

Annemarie Ferns, who works for SA Tourism in Germany, said they had been visiting Rosie's Soup Kitchen. On returning to the bus, they noticed men running away with one of them carrying her bag.

Heiko Brix, a Lufthansa representative said three young men got on the bus, one with a gun. "They were saying nervously 'telephones, camera'. The whole bus was very calm, we didn't panic."

Brix said that, before boarding the bus, they put the gun against the driver's head. Four women, sitting in the front of the bus, were in a state of shock.

Published on the web by Cape Times on December 2, 2005.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
© Cape Times 2005. All rights reserved.

@ Eldorado

Es würde mich doch mal interessieren, warum du diese Artikel hier reinstellst, man kann die doch auch bei „Cape Times“ oder „Cape Argus“ nachlesen - falls man sich dafür interessiert.

Was ist dein Motiv ?? Oder füllst du die Seiten nur, um dein Punktekonto zu pushen ??

Man darf nicht vergessen, dass Südafrika ein Entwicklungsland und kein Industrieland ist – mit immerhin 4-6 % Wirtschaftswachstum im Jahr (Deutschland hat mal gerade magere 0,8 %). Für Südafrika ist die Fußball WM eine große Chance – man wird sehen, ob es diese Chance nutzt oder nicht. Aber Schwarzseher und Pessimisten gibt es ja auch in Deutschland genug.

Wie man dort mit dem Stromausfall im Münsterland fertig wird ist ja wohl auch nicht gerade ein Musterbeispiel an Tüchtigkeit und Cleverness.

Nichts für ungut – schreib trotzdem mal warum diese Artikel.

Kuddel

Die nachfolgende Meldung paßt dazu. Allerdings kann ich nichts über den Split finden. Andererseits werden in Toronto die Aktien unterschiedlich gehandelt, mit einem Teiler von 100 höher als ungerade Stücke. Kinross hat sich mit der Übernahme von TVX nicht gerade Freunde gemacht und diese Meldung ist auch nicht erfreulich. Weiterer Kommentar wahrscheinlich überflüssig.

Kinross Gold Corporation Provides Status Update on Late Filing of Financial Statements

17:04 EST Friday, November 25, 2005

TORONTO, Nov. 25 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ - Kinross Gold Corporation ("Kinross" or the "Company") (TSX-K; NYSE-KGC). Pursuant to the alternative information guidelines of the Ontario Securities Commission ("OSC") Policy 57- 603 and Canadian Securities Administrators Staff Notice 57-301, Kinross is providing bi-weekly updates to the market regarding the process relating to the preparation and filing of its financial statements and related matters, until such time as Kinross is current with its filing obligations under Canadian securities laws.

Kinross expects that next week it will file its audited financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2004 including the comparative audited restated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2003 and its related management discussion and analysis. At the same time, Kinross will file its restated quarterly financial statements for 2004.

Kinross will then work to finalize and file its quarterly financial statements for 2005 and other required regulatory filings in order to bring the Company current.

Upon completing its audited financial statements, Kinross will be in a position to announce a date for its 2004 annual and special shareholders meeting. Kinross anticipates holding its shareholders meeting before the end of January 2006. Kinross will make an application to the Ontario Superior Court of Justice to obtain an extension to the previous order, obtained in June 2005, which required Kinross to hold its shareholders meeting by December 31, 2005.

We are issuing bi-weekly updates as to the status and timing which can be viewed on our website at http://www.kinross.com. The next update is scheduled for the week of December 5, 2005.

SOURCE Kinross Gold Corporation

CONTACT: e-mail info@kinross.com or Christopher T. Hill, Senior Vice President, Corporate Communications, Tel. (416) 365-7254; Tracey M. Thom, Director, Investor Relations and Communications, Tel. (416) 365-1362

@ Aladin

Sag ich doch, Frust ....

@ Aladin

Woher willst du wissen, wo ich lebe ???

Mir geht es nur darum:
das Forum ist dazu da, Informationen und Meinungen über Gold, Rohstoffe, Minengesellschaften auszutauschen. Und solche Informationen suche ich hier und versuche, auch solche zu geben.

Mich persönlich interessiert es überhaupt nicht, ob da irgendwo in SA Grabkreuze abgesägt und verscherbelt werden und ob dein Freund überfallen wurde oder nicht. Das hat keine Bedeutung für Gold, Silber, etc.. Mach doch dafür einen eigenen Beitrag, den muss man dann nicht erst öffnen.

Mich interessiert, ob ich in SA-Minengesellschaften investieren kann oder besser die Finger davon lassen sollte. Dazu sind mir Informationen über Minen und Wirtschaft in SA nützlich, aber keine Berichte über irgendwelche Überfälle, usw.
Deshalb sind mir Wirtschafts- und Politikinformationen wichtig, die einen kurz- bis langfristigen Einfluss auf Goldminen haben könnten, um mir meine Meinung zu bilden. Warum sollte die CS Zahlen veröffentlichen, die falsch sind, sind doch nachprüfbar!

Ich könnte mir vorstellen, dass beispielsweise die Kriminalstatistik in Venezuela auch nicht besonders gut ausschaut - warum bringst du die nicht auch noch?? Da bist du doch wohl investiert ??

Lass doch deinen Frust über SA woanders ab und gib uns Beiträge über Gold und Minen, die hast du doch auch !!

Kuddel

PS:
Es würde mich auch mal interessieren, wie andere darüber denken.

@ Aladin

Du musst schon mal unterscheiden zwischen deinen anscheinend vorhandenen persönlichen Problemen (die hier vielleicht nicht alle interessieren) -
und den nicht abstreitbaren (da nachweisbaren) wirtschaftlichen Fortschritten in Südafrika, die sich letztlich auch auf die Goldminenaktien auswirken werden -
darüber zu berichten und zu diskutieren ist wohl auch Sinn dieses Bords.

Gruß aus Kapstadt
Kuddel

Mal was zu den wirtschaftlichen Aussichten aus neutraler Ecke, interessiert hier vielleicht auch einige Leser.

Aus „Credit Suisse – Investment Ideas vom 9.11.2005"

Südafrika: solides Wachstum und angemessene Bewertungen – Neutral

Die südafrikanische Wirtschaft hat im 2. Quartal mit einer annualisierten Rate von 4.6% expandiert und dürfte in den nächsten 2–3 Jahren weiterhin ein Wachstum von über 4.0% verzeichnen. Die Regierung plant eine Erhöhung der Infrastrukturausgaben insbesondere für Hafenanlagen, Eisenbahnen und Stromnetze, um Kapazitätsengpässe zu beseitigen.
Zudem soll die Konjunktur stimuliert werden, um die nach wie vor hohe Arbeitslosigkeit – gemäss inoffiziellen Angaben liegt sie immer noch im Bereich von 40% – reduzieren zu können. Gleichzeitig will die südafrikanische Regierung das Haushaltsdefizit senken; für das Haushaltsjahr 2005/06 wird ein Fehlbetrag von lediglich 1% des BIP anvisiert. Die für südafrikanische Banken geltenden Einschränkungen des Kapitalverkehrs und der Währungstransaktionen werden
teilweise aufgehoben. Über den aktuellen Entwurf des umstrittenen «Mineral & Petroleum Royalty»-Gesetzes, welches
die Einführung einer Steuer in Höhe von 3–8% der Gewinne der Bergbauunternehmen vorsieht, wird nach wie vor debattiert.

Südafrika erfreut sich solider Wachstumsperspektiven, und die Regierungspolitik erscheint uns vernünftig. Infolge seiner natürlichen Ressourcen wird das Land zudem mittelfristig zu den Gewinnern der hohen Rohstoffnachfrage aus China gehören. Das P/E 2006E des Marktes beträgt zwar nur 10.5, aber das Ertragswachstum kühlt sich ab. Wir gewichten den südafrikanischen Markt deshalb neutral.

Falls jemand "Metallon Gold"-Shareholder ist, hier ist mal ein 'aufschlußreicher' Artikel darüber:

Khumalo wants to list Metallon Gold in London
November 11, 2005

By Nicky Smith

Johannesburg - Metallon Gold, a wholly owned subsidiary of Metallon Corporation, might decide to list on the Alternative Investment Market in London instead of the JSE, Mzi Khumalo, Metallon Gold's chairman said this week.

Metallon Gold had been expected to list on the JSE in April this year. Money raised from the listing, estimated to be R650 million, was to be directed towards mine expansion and Khumalo's cash-hungry luxury Zimbali Coastal Resort development in KwaZulu-Natal.

However, Metallon has run into a tangle of red tape with the Reserve Bank and consequently missed its second deadline for a September listing.

The net effect of these snarl-ups has meant that construction at Zimbali has ground to a halt. The cranes have stood motionless for months.

Khumalo said the Reserve Bank had told him the dispute would be resolved by the end of this month, but "as a betting man I don't think so".

The hold-up has been caused by the calculation of a penalty on the value of the assets Khumalo is trying to bring into South Africa.

The principal assets are five Zimbabwean gold mines. However, Greg Hunter, Metallon Gold's chief executive, explained that the matter was complicated by a number of other investments and assets that were held offshore.

In terms of a circular D405 any assets held offshore that are brought back into the country must have a penalty of 5 percent of their value imposed on them. Any offshore assets that remain offshore must have a 10 percent penalty applied to them.

Khumalo said in the listing prospectus that a value of $200 million (R1.35 billion) had been placed on the assets, and that the Reserve Bank now wanted 10 percent of that value.

However, Khumalo said he believed it should be a lower number because profits as well as losses offshore should be recognised by the Reserve Bank.

"We are not that far apart," he said regarding settling on an amount, adding that the engagement with the Reserve Bank was not hostile nor adversarial.

Nonkqubela Maliza, Metallon's corporate affairs executive, explained that circular D405 was not an amnesty application for contravention of foreign exchange controls.

"Mzi never applied for amnesty ... No foreign exchange laws had been broken," she said.

She explained that changes to the tax regime three years ago meant Khumalo needed to register his offshore assets, which were funded by offshore funds, with the Reserve Bank. Three years ago the government decided to broaden its tax net to include earnings generated by South African residents not exclusively from South African sources.

The process has been ongoing since February 2003. Maliza said Metallon had taken legal advice on whether it was necessary to apply for amnesty at the time and had been advised that it was not.

A full disclosure of all the offshore holdings, the structures and how the financing had been done had been given to the Reserve Bank.

@ Aladin

... und was ist mit deinem Beitrag vom 26.10.2005:

" Fuer mich erst ueber R 6.70/$ ueber mehere Tage, IMO.
Vorher ist das alles nur eine Vorfreude die schnell wieder vergehen kann. "

Kuddel

Rand- Korrektur von Dauer ??

Nun schon der 10. Tag (!!) nacheinander mit einem schwachen Rand zum $. Seit 10 Tagen über 6,65; heute (Interbankenkurs) 6,76 Rand/$.

Daher wohl auch die SA-Minen trotz Goldschwäche nicht so im Abwärtsgang.

Drückt die Daumen, dass es dabei bleibt !

Kuddel

Heute schon der 3. Tag in Folge mit Abwärtstendenz für den Rand!

Heute (Interbankenkurse):

Rand - $ 6.7010
Rand - Euro 8.1481

Wenn's dabei bleibt, dann hat sich die Geduld ausgezahlt.
Aber: hoffentlich nur kurzfristige Rücksetzer muss man einkalkulieren.

Kuddel

Warum nicht ? Zweiter Hoffnungsschimmer !

Heute (Interbankenkurse):

Rand - $ 6.6920
Rand - Euro 8.1037

Kuddel

Geht so langsam dem Rand die Luft aus?

Heute: 6,61 Rand für den USD und 7,99 Rand für den Euro (Interbankenkurs).

Erster Hoffnungsschimmer !!

Kuddel

@ bachalex

Was hat das denn mit Durban zu tun ???

Kuddel

Der guten Ordnung halber: Es gibt auch schon einen Kommentar dazu (ist nicht von mir), sollte aber aus "Gleichgewichtsgründen" nicht unter den Tisch gekehrt werden.

Kommentare

Simonis am 18.10.2005 - 18:08

Wer immer diesen Artikel geschrieben hat, war wohl das letzte mal vor 5 Jahren oder laenger in RSA. Nach 2 Jahren wohnen und arbeiten in Joburg muss ich berichten das ich mich in Joburg sicherer fuehlte als in meiner Heimat in Frankfurt. Nach mitternaechtlichen Fusswegen durch die Down town Joburg's und Pretoria, kann ich nicht von ueberfaellen berichten. Strandspaziergaenge hatte ich zwar auch nur tagsueber getaetigt. Nachts waeren mir skrupelgekommen eventuell auf ein Krokodil zu treten. Auch bin sehr oft mit dem Auto durch KwazuluNatal gefahren und dies auch sehr oft nachts.Ich koennte auch mehr ueber die guten Seiten der Einwohner berichten und sollte dies auch mal wirklich tun.
Zuletzt moechte ich denn mal in Frage stellen, wieviele Morde werden denn in Frankfurt nicht veroeffentlicht oder statistisch erfasst?
Des weiteren sollte man sich einmal bewusst werden das dieses Land mit ca. 42% arbeitslosigkeit recht friedlich ist. Sollte ein Township wie z.B. Soweto einen Aufstand riskieren koennten dies ca. 1.6 millionen Menschen sein die keine Polizei der Erde aufhalten koennte. So, die Frage, gibt es Anzeichen das so etwas passiert? Nein, gibt es nicht.Ich sehe in diesem Land eine grosse Zukunft, bin aber auch der Meinung das im vergleich zu West Europa noch ein langer Weg bevorsteht. Ich kann nur hoffen das RSA einmal nicht soweit zivilisiert wird als das man eher bedenken hegen muss Bahn und Ubahn zu fahren wie in Europa und dabei Opfer eines Anschlages wird.
Wieviele Morde gibt es in z.B Chikago?

@ Aladin

Sorry, aber ich vertraue mehr den Fakten als politisch eingefärbten Statements von Gewerkschaftsfunktionären.

Kuddel