Beiträge von Kuddel

Golden Star Closes Its Bought Deal Equity Offering

Friday December 30, 8:52 am ET

DENVER--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec. 30, 2005--Golden Star Resources Ltd. (TSX: GSC - News; AMEX: GSS - News) advised that it has today closed its bought deal equity offering announced on December 8, 2005. The total offering was for approximately 31.59 million common shares at Cdn$2.80 per common share and realized gross proceeds of approximately Cdn$88.45 million. The common shares were offered in Canada and the United States by an underwriting syndicate consisting of BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., Blackmont Capital Inc. and Wellington West Capital Markets Inc., and their respective U.S. affiliates.
The net proceeds of the offering are to be used to fund the development of the Company's mineral projects, primarily for the completion of the Bogoso sulfide expansion project at its Bogoso/Prestea property in Ghana, and for general corporate purposes.
Golden Star holds a 90% equity interest in the Bogoso/Prestea and Wassa open-pit gold mines in Ghana. In addition, Golden Star has an 81% interest in the currently inactive Prestea Underground mine in Ghana, as well as gold exploration interests elsewhere in West Africa and in the Guiana Shield of South America. [B]Golden Star's production is expected to increase to over 500,000 ounces in 2007, compared to expected production of approximately 200,000 ounces in 2005.[/B] Golden Star has approximately 206 million common shares outstanding following completion of the offering.

Ist doch für Billy nur ein Taschengeld. Wird er uns leider nicht auf die Nase binden, wo er investiert.

Hecla und Venezuela: Chavez droht Exxon mit Enteignung. Nur was für starke Nerven.

27.12.2005 - 13:14

Chinesischer Gold-Riese geht an die Börse

Chinas zweitgrößter Goldproduzent, Lingbao Gold Co., wird Anfang 2006 an die Börse in Hongkong gehen. Berichten situationsbetrauter Kreise zufolge sei die Nachfrage nach den Aktien des Unternehmens in institutionellen Kreisen sehr hoch. Besonders europäische und US amerikanische Investmentfonds seien interessiert, hieß es. Nach weiteren Informationen des staatlichen Longbao Gold Konzerns sollen 90 Prozent der Aktien im Börsengang an institutionelle Investoren gehen. Lingbao wird 258,5 Millionen Aktien oder 35,17 Prozent seines Aktienkapitals an die Börse bringen. Das Unternehmen rechnet mit Erlösen von 861 Millionen Hongkong-Dollar. Informationen über ein Listing der Lingbao-Aktie an einer deutschen Börse liegen bislang nicht vor.

Hat Billy das richtige 'Näschen' für die Zukunft ??

Kuddel

Handelsblatt vom 23.12.2005

Goldbranche vor Mega-Übernahme

Der kanadische Konzern Barrick Gold hat sein Angebot für den Konkurrenten Placer aufgestockt und damit - nach langem Tauziehen - der Weg für die Entstehung des weltweit größten Goldproduzenten frei gemacht.

HB TORONTO. Placer Dome stimmte am Donnerstag einer Übernahme durch den größeren Rivalen zu, nachdem dieser seine Kaufofferte auf 10,4 Mrd. Dollar aufbesserte, wie beide kanadischen Unternehmen mitteilten. Das auf um zwei Dollar auf 22,50 Dollar erhöhte Angebot gilt noch bis zum 19. Januar. Im Erfolgsfall würde Barrick die Konkurrenten Newmont Mining und Anglo Gold Ashanti überholen und zum größten Goldkonzern der Welt aufsteigen.

Im Oktober hatte der Konzern noch einen feindlichen Übernahmeversuch im Volumen von 9,2 Mrd. Dollar gestartet, war aber auf Widerstand von Placer gestoßen. "Jetzt sieht es so aus, als sei der Kampf vorüber", sagte Analyst Michael Fowler des Brokerhauses Desjardins Securities. Er erwartete nicht, dass es einen Mitbieter geben werde, der den Zusammenschluss noch vereiteln könne.

Im Rahmen des nun vereinbarten Geschäfts wird ein anderer kanadischer Goldproduzent, Goldcorp, 1,485 Mrd. Dollar für einige Placer-Vermögenswerte Zahlen. Bisher hatte Goldcorp 1,35 Mrd. Dollar geboten.

Posted to the web on: 23 December 2005

Gold Fields cool as tension over Bolivar hots up

Rob Rose
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Chief Reporter

FOLLOWING resistance to Gold Fields’ R2,2bn bid for Venezuelan gold company Bolivar, the South African gold company has given its strongest indication yet that it will not raise its offer.

With tensions rising as the January 12 deadline nears, Scion Capital which owns 19% of the Canadian-listed Bolivar, this week slammed Gold Fields’ bid as “opportunistic” and too cheap, and urged shareholders to reject the bid of C$3 a share.

Scion also hit at Bolivar management for recommending Gold Fields’ offer, saying that these executives are “self- serving” and riddled with conflicts of interest, as they would gain C$29m through this deal.

But yesterday, Gold Fields gave its strongest indication yet that if Scion is holding out for an increase, it is unlikely to get what it wants.

Gold Fields director John Munro said: “We have demonstrated a strong acquisition discipline, and it will remain the case. We have made an offer at C$3 a share, and we are proceeding on that basis.”

In a separate boost for Gold Fields yesterday, Bolivar CEO Serafino Iacono reaffirmed his support of Gold Fields’ offer, and lambasted Scion for trying to sway shareholder sentiment against it.

Iacono launched a broadside at Scion, saying the hedge fund was not “proposing any alternatives for the future”, and wants shareholders to lose out on “tangible value for intangible assumptions”.

“Scion Capital would prefer you to ignore the efforts and judgment of Bolivar’s board and management in spite of the extraordinary results they have delivered in an exceptionally difficult environment,” he said.

Iacono said: “We strongly believe that Gold Fields’ offer of cash at a premium to Bolivar’s share price is in the best interests of Bolivar’s shareholders.”

He said that Gold Fields’ offer was fair, as it represented a 384% return to investors since January 2003, and a 45% return since the end of last year. Gold Fields’ offer was also 40% higher than the average share price for the month before the offer, he said.

However, Scion said in its documents that the 40% was misleading because Bolivar’s shares had been trading significantly higher earlier until comments by Venezuelan President Huge Chavez knocked the share price.

“The reality is that the offer by Gold Fields does not truly provide Bolivar shareholders with a ‘premium’ for their shares. In March 2005, Bolivar common shares traded as high as C$2,97, and in September 2005 the shares traded as high as C$3,05,” Scion said.

However, Iacono said yesterday that “many of Bolivar’s institutional shareholders have already accepted the bid”. Some analysts have said that the C$3 offer is too high.

In terms of the deal, 66,6% of shareholders must accept Gold Fields offer for it to go through. Scion already holds 19,4% of Bolivar, and is seeking to get another 13% in proxies from other shareholders to sink Gold Fields’ offer.

Gold Fields also has an opinion from brokerage firm Sprott Securities, which says the deal is fair and reasonable for Bolivar shareholders. But Scion has accused Sprott of “institutional duplicity”.

“How can Sprott analyst David Stein raise his target price on Bolivar from C$3,65 to C$4 on November 15 only to have Sprott deliver a valuation on November 30th that the fair value of Bolivar is only C$2,65 to C$3,25 a share?” Scion says.

There has been movement in Bolivar’s shares since the offer. More than 60% of Bolivar’s 113-million shares have traded and the share price has vaulted to close to the bid level of C$3 a share.

Kommentar:
Bolivar Gold steht in Toronto schon seit Anfang Dezember bei rund
3 CAD. War also schon bekannt.

Posted to the web on: 20 December 2005

JSE in sight of 18000 as gold bounces back
Ayanda Shezi
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Economics Correspondent

THE JSE jumped to yet another record high yesterday, stopping shy of the 18000 level, boosted by a recovery in the gold price.

Analysts remain bullish on the outlook for the local equity market in the long term, although some correction is expected in the near term.

Also, with thin trade expected over the festive season, reaching the 18000 level may prove to be difficult.

The JSE’s all share index gained 1,2% to 17863 points, boosted by the gold index, which surged 3,5% to 2490. The resources index was up 1,0% at 17026.

“The strong commodity prices continue to underpin the resource shares, particularly the gold shares, which are trading at near 52 week highs,” BJM Private Clients Services equity dealer Mpho Mojalefa said yesterday.

Overall, the JSE remains reasonably priced, according to analysts.

The financial index was also up, gaining 1,8% to 6695.

“We are also seeing a very strong performance and demand for the banks, which have been relative under- performers to date. The banks should continue to benefit from the relatively low interest rate environment going into next year,” Mojalefa said.

Following last week’s benign CPIX (consumer index excluding mortgage costs) figures, and a less hawkish tone by Reserve Bank governor Tito Mboweni at the monetary policy committee’s last meeting for this year, the chances of a rate hike next year are less than they were two months ago.

At its meeting in October the Bank was worried about the outlook for inflation, the deterioration of which could not be ignored.

“Although there are no clear signs of second-round effects, the longer the upward trend and volatility of oil prices persist, the more likely the price increases will continue to impact on expectations and feed through to other prices. Monetary policy has to remain vigilant in anticipating such developments,” Mboweni said at the time.

Mining companies account for about 40% of trade on the all share index

So far this year the JSE’s Alsi gained 39% largely on foreign investor interest in local equities.

Gold has reached 25-year highs in recent weeks racing to levels above $540/oz on the back of strong demand and worries about supply shortages.

The metal then retreated back to levels around $500/oz falling 4,4% last week as investors took profit. Bullion rose 1,2% to $509/oz yesterday.

In the past six months, the metal has gained about 16%.

A report by JP Morgan & Chase released last week shows that gold may average $558/oz next year and $609/oz in 2007 as a result of strong demand from China and a “capping” of supply from the mines.

Platinum prices, which also have fallen from multiyear highs reached in recent weeks, rose 1,8% to $974/oz yesterday, lifted higher by the strong bullion price.

With Bloomberg

Hab's mir beinahe schon gedacht:

Warrants Outstanding: 39,466,411 zu 2,00 CAD.

Weitere 11,687,500 stock options zu 1,30 bis 3,25 CAD (habe ich noch im Quartalsbericht gefunden).

SharePreis heute: 3,31 CAD.

Kuddel

@ valueman

Die Anzahl der Warrants und Optionen ist schon ziemlich hoch. Hat mich bisher auch vom Kauf abgehalten.
Hast du Infos über die Optionspreise und -stücke?
Ich muss dann nicht lange recherchieren, falls du die Daten hast.

Kuddel

Posted to the web on: 14 December 2005

Jobs growth bodes well for 6% target, say analysts

Ayanda Shezi - Economics Correspondent
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SA GAINED 99000 jobs in the third quarter of this year in the formal, nonfarming sectors. Furthermore, the continent’s largest economy is set for 6% growth and beyond in the next few years.

This bodes well for the fight against the high unemployment rate, analysts said yesterday.

“The reported improvement in employment during the second and third quarters fits well with an intuitive sense that the economic buoyancy has led to meaningful job creation,” said Stanlib economist Phindile Ncede.

The Quarterly Employment Statistics, released by Statistics SA yesterday, show that the number of people employed increased 1,4%.

This is a strong turnaround from the first quarter, during which jobs dropped by 152 000, or 2,1%.

In the second quarter, the number of people employed rose 1,9%.

Standard Bank group economist Goolam Ballim said: “The third quarter numbers reflect positively and reinforce the underlying health of the economy.”

However, as consumer demand slowed, job creation, particularly in the services sector, could slow, Ballim said.

“Also, the manufacturing sector remains structurally under pressure and there is likely to be persistent purging of labour costs,” he said.

SA has an unemployment rate of 26,5% and the economy needs to grow sustainably faster to address this problem, one of the country’s biggest economic challenges.

“Given the favourable prognosis for the economy over the medium term, specifically job-creating investment spending, the prospects are good for a reasonably lively job-creating growth environment (as opposed to jobless growth),” the Standard Bank economist said.

The economy grew at 4,2% in the third quarter of this year, down from a revised 5,4% in the second quarter, during which 133000 jobs were created.

During the third quarter, no sector reflected job losses.

The number of jobs created in transport, storage and communication rose 4,1% (13000 jobs) to 333000.

The construction industry reported a quarterly increase of 11000 employees, bringing the total number of people it employs to 443000.

The economy’s second-largest sector, manufacturing, added 13000 employees, a rise of 1,1% from the second quarter.

Mining and quarrying was the only sector that did not add any jobs in the third quarter.

The sector comprising wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles, and hotels and restaurants reported a quarterly increase of 24000 employees, or 1,7%.

A quarterly increase of 16000 was recorded in the financial intermediation, insurance, real estate and business services industry (1,1%), while the community, social and personal services industry reported a quarterly increase of 21000 employees (1,2%).

The quarterly employment survey replaced the Survey of Employment and Earnings in June.

The statistics are derived from a survey of about 24500 businesses registered to pay income tax, excluding those in agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing. The biannual Labour Force Survey includes all sectors.

Posted to the web on: 14 December 2005

Business upbeat on SA investment climate

Linda Ensor - Political Correspondent
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CAPE TOWN — Rigid labour laws and the relatively high cost of SA’s labour have been highlighted as major impediments to accelerated foreign investment and to SA attaining a 6% growth rate, a joint World Bank-government survey released yesterday has found.

The findings on labour rigidity echo recent calls by, among others, Reserve Bank governor Tito Mboweni for SA to revisit its post-1994 labour setup.

Linked to high labour costs is the poor record of local firms in providing in-house training to workers, and SA’s lack of skills.

However, the findings were “more favourable than we had thought”, trade and industry department policy head Ravi Naidoo told a briefing at the release of the findings.

The skills shortage meant labour costs were three-and-a-half times higher than in the most productive areas of China, more than two-and-a-half times higher than in Brazil and Lithuania and about 75% higher than in Malaysia or Poland.

While 77% of Brazil’s skilled workforce received company training, in SA the figure was a low 44,6%. In Poland the figure was 80%, China 69% and India 55%.

“Overall, these results suggest that government programmes designed to encourage training have not been successful,” the review found.

“Fewer firms have training programmes than in other middle-income countries.”

This was a concern, given that all employers paid a skills levy, said presidential adviser Goolam Aboobaker. Sectoral education and training authorities were sitting with a “huge surplus”.

A joint initiative on “priority skills acquisition” would be launched by government, business and organised labour to assess SA’s needs and develop a co-ordinated approach, Aboobaker said.

The survey, conducted among about 800 local businesses, was designed to assess the investment climate in SA.

The findings will feed into the accelerated and shared growth initiative being spearheaded by Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka.

It found local businesses conceded they were not as burdened by regulations as was suggested sometimes, nor was the corporate tax rate too much of a concern.

Senior managers said they spent up to 10% of their time dealing with regulation, comparing well with most middle-income countries, and far better than the 25% spent in China and Lithuania.
The cost of crime in SA, although lower than in the worst-performing middle-income economies, was higher than in many of its competitors and was a source of concern.

Direct losses due to crime and security costs were higher in SA than in other middle-income countries such as China, Poland, Brazil and even Russia.

“Yes, crime is a big problem, but in terms of doing business it isn’t at such large cost,” Naidoo said.

Few firms reported paying bribes for government services or to win government contracts, and the legal system inspired confidence. Low energy costs and access to finance were also among the plus factors.

World Bank country director for SA Ritva Reinikka said overall the findings for SA were favourable, but challenges remained such as the relatively high wages paid to managers, professionals and skilled workers, which eroded competitiveness, and exchange-rate volatility, which made exporting difficult.

Despite SA’s relatively strong macroeconomic performance — described as modest gross domestic product growth and moderate inflation — about a third of enterprise managers said that macroeconomic instability was “a serious problem”.

HIV/AIDS was listed as a medium-term concern, mainly related to uncertainty about its effect on productivity, market size, profitability and absenteeism.

The report suggested that the reluctance of foreign investors might be in part due to the allocation of a significant share of investment funds to finance empowerment deals.

“In the main, these transactions relate to equity transfers and not investments in the creation of new capital stock,” the report found.

With INet-Bridge, Sapa

Ich verstehe es so, dass ein Auftrag erteilt wurde, die Shares zu 2,80 CAD zu verkaufen. Das Geld ist dann Cash für GSS, sofern es nicht wieder anders investiert wird. Es besteht m.W. keine Anzeigepflicht, zu bestätigen, dass sie dann auch tatsächlich verkauft worden sind.

Ich finde auch nichts darüber, ob der St. Jude Erwerb mit Aufstockung der Shares verbunden ist. Wahrscheinlich nicht, da reichlich Shares bei den Hauptaktionären (Euroinvest) vorhanden sind.

Das Announcement im Wortlaut:

Golden Star and St. Jude Announce Signing of Definitive Agreement; Expect to Close Transaction in December

DENVER and VANCOUVER, British Columbia--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nov. 14, 2005--Golden Star Resources Ltd. (TSX: GSC)(AMEX: GSS) and St. Jude Resources Ltd. (TSXV: SJD) are pleased to announce that they have signed a definitive agreement providing for the acquisition of St. Jude by Golden Star.

The acquisition is expected to be completed by way of a court-sanctioned plan of arrangement whereby every one common share of St. Jude will be exchanged for 0.72 of a Golden Star common share, representing a 38% premium over the 20 day average closing share price of St. Jude as of September 26, 2005, the day prior to the announcement of the transaction. Upon completion of the proposed transaction, existing St. Jude shareholders will hold approximately 19% of Golden Star.

The St. Jude security holder meeting to approve the transaction is expected to be held December 15, 2005, with closing expected to occur shortly thereafter. The transaction will require the approval of the shareholders of St. Jude and the holders of St. Jude convertible securities, voting as a single class. The transaction will also require regulatory approval and be subject to the satisfaction or waiver of certain conditions.

BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. is acting as financial advisor to Golden Star. Salman Partners Inc. and Haywood Securities Inc. are acting as joint financial advisors to St. Jude and each has provided an opinion that the consideration offered under the transaction is fair from a financial point of view to the shareholders of St. Jude.

About Golden Star

Golden Star holds a 90% equity interest in the Bogoso/Prestea and Wassa open-pit gold mines in Ghana. In addition, Golden Star has an 81% interest in the currently inactive Prestea Underground mine in Ghana, as well as gold exploration interests elsewhere in West Africa and in the Guiana Shield of South America. Golden Star's production is expected to increase to over 500,000 ounces in 2007, compared to expected production of approximately 220,000 ounces in 2005. Golden Star has approximately 143 million common shares outstanding.

About St. Jude

St. Jude's principal assets are the Hwini-Butre and Benso projects at the southeastern end of the prolific Ashanti gold belt region in Ghana. Based on the disclosures of St Jude, Hwini-Butre and Benso have combined total near surface attributable measured and indicated resources of approximately 15.1 million tonnes at an average grade of 2.71 grams per tonne. In addition, St. Jude has several other highly prospective advanced exploration projects in Ghana, Burkina Faso and Niger.

Posted to the web on: 12 December 2005

Import surge lifts current account deficit to new peak
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Kevin O’Grady
Economics Editor

SA’s deficit on the current account of the balance of payments soared to a 22-year-high in the third quarter, the Reserve Bank said in its latest quarterly bulletin on Friday.

The deficit swelled to R72,9bn, or 4,7% of gross domestic product (GDP) compared with a R55,5bn deficit, equivalent to 3,7% of GDP, in the second quarter. It was the highest level since 1983.

This comes after SA recorded its sixth successive quarterly and record highest (R19,7bn) deficit with the rest of the world.

Sustained buoyancy of real domestic expenditure, which gave rise to a sharp increase in the value of merchandise imports, was largely behind the increase, the Bank said. “The higher level of merchandise imports in the third quarter was only partly offset by the improved performance of merchandise exports.”

Imports rose 7,5% in the third quarter from the second, while exports increased 3,5%.

The higher current account deficit could cause the rand to weaken, especially if volatile portfolio inflows are reversed and the surplus on the financial account of the balance of payments is no longer sufficient to cover the current account deficit.

A weaker rand could push up the cost of imported goods, including oil, higher, with negative implications for inflation.

Reserve Bank governor Tito Mboweni flagged the higher current account deficit as a “potential source of concern” at the end of last week’s monetary policy committee meeting, but he remained confident that capital inflows would continue to finance the deficit adequately.

There was also a shrinking reliance on portfolio flows, with a sizeable increase in foreign direct investment in the third quarter, Mboweni said. As long as SA exercised “proper macroeconomic policy management … the future is bright”, Mboweni said.

The Bank said that there was a R32,2bn inflow of foreign direct investment in the third quarter, compared with R1,4bn in the second quarter, mainly due to the Barclays-Absa deal.

“The overall balance of payments remained in surplus in the third quarter, but by a lesser amount than in the second quarter of 2005,“ the Bank said.

The Bank also said it had decided to exclude assets of private banks from its calculation of reserves after exchange controls were loosened further in October.

As a result of the changes to exchange control regulations, the Bank said it had revised data for the overall balance of payments for the years dating back to 1960.

This sharply weakened the overall balance of payments for the past three years, pushing it into a deficit during 2003, and also hit annual surpluses on the financial account.

With Reuters

Wenn ich die Meldung richtig verstehe, so wurde ein agreement getroffen, dass von den bereits vorhandenen Shares 29,2 Mio. + 4,2 Mio zu 2,8 CAD verkauft werden sollen. Es handelt sich deshalb nicht um eine Kapitalerhöhung oder Ausgabe neuer Shares. Haben das schon einmal im April gemacht, zu deutlich höherem Kurs. GSS steht ja eigentlich auf gesunden Beinen und hat eine starke Kapitaldecke (Total Assets 252 Mio USD). Wer weiß, wofür die das Geld benötigen?
Ich würde mir wegen dieser Meldung keine grauen Haare wachsen lassen.

Bei vielen anderen, besonders Exploratoren, wäre mir das sehr viel unwohler. Die meisten haben hohe Verluste, geringe oder keine Einnahmen und eine Kapitaldecke, die kaum mehr als 1-2 Jahr reicht. Da kann nur durch Ausgabe neuer Shares Geld von Investoren hereinkommen, denn der Weg über Kapitalerhöhungen ist lang und obendrein unsicher.

Posted to the web on: 08 December 2005

Mining production fell in October

I-Net Bridge
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MINING production for October declined by 2.1% when compared with the September output, according to Stats SA in a report released today.

For the three months to October 2005, seasonally adjusted mining production declined by 1.7% when compared with the three months to July 2005, Stats SA added.

The decrease in production for the three months to October was attributed to a seasonally adjusted decrease of 3.4% in the production of gold and a 1.4% decline in the output of non-gold minerals during the three months to October when compared with the three months to July.

In August, the gold mining industry was hit by its first sector wide strike since 1987, which caused a loss of gold production.

The seasonally adjusted decrease of 1.4% in non-gold minerals was due to a 0.9% fall in the production of platinum group metals (PGMs) and a 0.6% decline in other non-metallic minerals, StatsSA said.

September 2005 seasonally adjusted minerals sales were 12.714 billion rand, up 6.3% from August sales.

Gold sales during September made up 1.94 billion rand or 15% of total South African minerals sales during the month, Stats SA said.

Seasonally adjusted minerals sales for the three months to September increased by 0.3% when compared with the three months to June and rose by 14.9% compared with the third quarter 2004, Stats SA added.

Posted to the web on: 08 December 2005

Reserve Bank keeps repo rate steady

I-Net Bridge
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E-Mail article Print-Friendly



THE Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee has decided to keep the repo rate steady at 7% for the fourth consecutive meeting.

All economists surveyed by I-Net Bridge yesterday expected no change in interest rates, even though Reserve Bank governor Tito Mboweni on Monday night said at a media function in Johannesburg that inflation outlook had improved since the last MPC meeting.

This was the twelfth consecutive MPC meeting at which the majority of economists have forecast no cut in rates, but in August 2004 and April 2005, the Bank did surprise the market by cutting rates by 50 basis points.

The improvement in their inflation outlook was due to lower oil prices, a fall in the retail petrol price, the stronger rand and reduced unit labour costs, Mboweni said.

The revisions to the gross domestic product data showed that the economy required neither monetary nor fiscal stimulus, he added.

CPIX inflation (headline inflation excluding mortgage costs) has been below the midpoint of the Bank’s inflation target range of 3-6% year-on-year for 20 out of the past 25 releases and most economists expect CPIX annual inflation to ease in November and December, given the retail petrol price cuts implemented in those months.

The latest available inflation data is for October, which was the second consecutive month that the annual rate has eased. In October it was 4,4% year-on-year from 4,7% in September and this year’s peak of 4,8% reached in August.

Posted to the web on: 08 December 2005

Inflation remains under control, says Mboweni

I-Net Bridge
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Related Links

Reserve Bank keeps repo rate steady


INFLATION has remained under control and within the inflation target range, and growth in the economy has been robust, Reserve Bank Governor Tito Mboweni said today.

Speaking at the conclusion of the final Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting for 2005, at which interest rates were left unchanged, Mboweni said the recent revisions of the GDP data show that the economy has been growing at a faster rate than previously estimated.

The most significant change was to the 2004 growth rate, which is now estimated to have been 4.5%.

"A slightly higher growth rate is expected to be achieved this year, although there are signs that the economy might be losing some of its earlier momentum," he said.

He said at the October MPC meeting, the inflation outlook had deteriorated somewhat, which was a cause for concern. Since then, however, recorded outcomes have been better than anticipated, and the outlook has changed somewhat. However, a number of significant risks remain, he said.

Inflation as measured by the consumer price index for metropolitan and other urban areas excluding the interest cost on mortgage bonds (CPIX) declined to 4.7% in September, and 4.4% in October following its peak of 4.8% in August.

The decline occurred despite the increases in local petrol prices in September and October of 29 and 12 cents respectively.

Since then the petrol price has been reduced by 31 cents in November and 30 cents in December. If petrol price increases were excluded from this index, CPIX inflation in September and October would have measured 3.5% and 3.2% respectively, reflecting a continued absence of marked second-round effects from petrol price increases, he added.

"These more favourable outcomes have been due to a number of factors which partly offset the impact of the petrol price increases. Notable among these were the year-on-year declines in the prices of clothing and footwear, furniture and equipment, and homeowners’ costs."

Year-on-year food price inflation also remained low, measuring 2.5% in October compared to 3.3% in September. Services inflation moved further within the inflation target range, having declined to 5.2% in October, compared to goods price inflation of 4.1%.

Of significance is the fact that administered prices excluding petrol declined to 4.5% and 4.3% in September and October respectively. This can be compared to a rate of increase of 7% in May.

Administered price inflation including petrol amounted to 10% in October.

Production price inflation also reversed its recent upward trend in October when it measured 4.2%, compared to 4.6% in September. Prices of domestically produced goods rose by 3.8% and 3.5% in September and October respectively, while price increases of imported goods amounted to 6.8% and 5.8%.

The food price category continued to exhibit price declines, Mboweni said.

Posted to the web on: 07 December 2005

Reserve Bank cuts down on forex purchases

I-Net Bridge
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THE Reserve Bank cut its buying of US dollars to add to its foreign reserves to only $125m in November from $164m in October after buying a net $409m in September. The November purchases were still far higher than August’s tiny $74m - the smallest monthly amount so far this year.

In August, two ratings agencies (Standard & Poor’s, as well as Fitch) upgraded SA’s foreign currency rating to BBB plus, in part because of the Bank’s accumulation of foreign reserves, which means its ability to repay foreign debt has been enhanced.

Government has said repeatedly that its primary exchange rate policy goal is stability and this is one of the reasons why it is boosting its foreign exchange reserves.

In July, the Bank bought $229m after $1,475bn in June and $1,217bn in May and only $156m in April.

The Bank said today the increase in reserves levels reflected a combination of foreign exchange operations conducted by the Reserve Bank for its own account as well as on behalf of customers.

Economists had expected at least a further $1bn addition in July, as the R30bn purchase of Absa by UK-listed Barclays was finalised on July 27.

The July last year foreign exchange reserves exceeded $10bnn for the first time and stood at $10,251bn at the end of that month. They have subsequently grown to a record $17,811bn at the end of October from $17,647bn at the end of September.

A total of $1,972bn in gold reserves lifted total gross reserves to $19,908bn at the end of October, only $92m away from the $20bn level that many economists see as a "healthy" foreign reserve level.

Reserve Bank governor Tito Mboweni said on Monday that gross foreign reserves would exceed $20bn by the end of this year.

Both the May and June increases were due to "foreign direct investment" with the Reserve Bank not saying who, or how much of the total increase was FDI.

Up until February last year, the foreign exchange reserves fluctuated around the $6bn level since 1999, but then rose to $8,274bn in March from $6,756bn in February and $6,462bn in January.

As long ago as November 1999, the foreign exchange component was raised to $6,28bn from $5,875bn in October 1999 and $4,863bn in July 1999 ahead of the Y2K change over.

The increase in SA’s foreign exchange reserves from $11,23bn at the end of 1999 to $27,862bn at the end of April last year was largely due to an increase in the foreign exchange reserves of commercial banks, not the Bank.

The subsequent increase to $35,202bn at the end of June was largely concentrated in the Bank’s reserves and the Reserve Bank said on July 25 2005 that it would continue to buy dollars to add to its reserves.

Da ist der Zweite:

Posted to the web on: 06 December 2005

Dippenaar, Menell resign from Harmony Gold

I-Net Bridge

Ferdi Dippenaar and Rick Menell, two of Harmony Gold’s most senior directors, have resigned, the company said today.
Harmony said that both men would be pursuing careers as chief executive officers of junior mining companies.
Dippenaar joined Harmony in 1998 and served the company in many roles, most recently as Marketing Director. He leaves Harmony at the end of December 2005 to take up the position of CEO of Great Basin Gold, a junior Toronto listed gold exploration and mining company.
On the announcement of Dippenaar’s resignation Harmony CEO Bernard Swanepoel said: "As sad as it is to lose one of our best, we are proud of Ferdi and know that he will make a great success of his new challenge. We pride ourselves in Harmony on our people and Ferdi is truly export quality.
"He moves on with the best wishes of the board and all of his friends at
Harmony."
During the last few months Dippenaar handed over Investor Relations to Philip Kotze and as such no new appointment needs to be made due to his departure.
Rick Menell steps down from Harmony’s board as a non-executive director in order to spend most of his time on his new role as CEO of TEAL, a junior Toronto listed exploration company.
Menell joined Harmony’s board in 2004 with Harmony’s acquisition of Avgold. He was elected deputy chairman and served in that role until his resignation.
Patrice Motsepe, chairman of Harmony, said: "On behalf of the board, I wish to thank Rick for his loyal support as my deputy and we all wish him well for the future."

Muss so sein, nur eine Frage der Zeit.

Ein Beitrag von Goldman Sachs dazu. Ist zwar schon ein wenig älter, aber immer noch aktuell.

"Sunday, April 03, 2005
Goldman Sachs says oil could spike to $105/bLONDON:Oil markets have entered a “super-spike” period that could see 1970’s-style price surges as high as $105 a barrel, investment bank Goldman Sachs said in a research report. Goldman’s Global Investment Research note also raised the bank’s 2005 and 2006 New York Mercantile Exchange crude price forecasts to $50 and $55 respectively, from $41 and $40. These forecasts sit at the top of a table of predictions from 25 analysts, consultants and government bodies surveyed by Reuters. “We believe oil markets may have entered the early stages of what we have referred to as a “super spike” period — a multi-year trading band of oil prices high enough to meaningfully reduce energy consumption and recreate a spare capacity cushion only after which will lower energy prices return,” Goldman’s analysts wrote. The analysts said resilient demand had led them to revise their super-spike range to $50-$105 per barrel from $50-$80 previously, noting strength in oil demand and economic growth in the United States and China especially. US oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange have averaged $50.03 per barrel so far in 2005. Goldman Sachs is the biggest trader of energy derivatives, and its Goldman Sachs Commodities Index is a widely-watched barometer of energy and commodities prices. Goldman pointed out thin spare capacity in the energy supply chain, and long response times for bringing on supply additions, as well as robust demand in the United States and in developing heavyweights China and India, despite the recent rapid increase in energy costs. Harks back to 1970s: Gold-man said the current oil market environment looked more like that seen in the 1970s — when oil prices spiked dramatically following the Arab oil embargoes on supply to the West and Iran’s revolution. High energy prices threw the world into recession, and triggered several years of declining oil demand. Supply growth continued unabated and bolstered spare capacity, which in turn stabilised oil markets at lower prices — a phase of the market cycle that Goldman’s researchers said had only just ended. The bank also said its super-spike forecast range was conservative, noting declining US gasoline spending as a proportion of GDP and consumer spending. During 1980-1981, gasoline spending in the United States corresponded to an average 4.5 percent of GDP, 7.2 percent of consumer expenditures, and 6.2 percent of personal disposable income, Goldman said. “Our new $50-$105 per bbl super spike range perhaps conservatively corresponds to gasoline spending in the United States that reaches 3.6 percent of forecasted GDP, 5.3 percent of consumer expenditures, and 5.0 percent of personal disposable income. Goldman said that were it to assume gasoline spending needed to reach 1970s levels to destroy demand, its upside super-spike estimate would be $135 per barrel for New York crude. “Perhaps the ultimate answer to high how oil prices need to go before demand destruction occurs is derived from knowing when American consumers will stop buying gas guzzling sport utility vehicles and instead seek fuel efficient alternatives.
reuters"

Sollte dann auch mittel- langfristig für den Goldpreis positiv sein.