Zinc Now Outperforming Other Base Metals
and Selenium Shines
I started a shareholders letter November 5, 2004 with the caption “Zinc Through $0.55/lb by Christmas??” ... but I didn’t get it finished. At the time, that forecast would have appeared as an outrageous call given that zinc was at about US$0.471 per pound on November 4th. As I write this, the LME price is US$0.55 per pound and additional increases appear to be coming….more on this in a minute.
This is the last Expatriate shareholders letter, as Expatriate will, at market open on Monday, December 20, 2004, change its name to Yukon Zinc Corporation. On December 14, 2004 the shareholders overwhelmingly approved the Plan of Arrangement (99.78% in favor) resulting in the transfer of the non-Finlayson District exploration properties to its subsidiary Pacifica Resources Ltd., and the transformation of Pacifica into a new exploration company on the TSX Venture Exchange.
The formation of Pacifica completes the reorganization of Expatriate that began in spring 2003, which included the formation of StrataGold Corporation in November 2003 as a successful new gold exploration company. With some hard work and ingenuity perhaps Pacifica can grow as quickly as StrataGold has in its first year. In that time, StrataGold has increased its market capitalization from $13 million at the start to approximately $42 million at the time of writing.
The group of companies, including Yukon Zinc Corporation, Pacifica Resources and StrataGold Corporation, will be known as the Expatriate Group of Companies. The group shares considerable technical, legal and financial experience and expertise of the various team members and benefits from operating synergies.
Expatriate will change its name to Yukon Zinc Corporation on December 20 and trade under the symbol YZC on the TSX Venture Exchange. The renaming of Expatriate marks the evolution of Expatriate from an exploration company to a development and mining company.
The Company recently announced Mr. Richard Goodwin as the Vice President of Mining to champion the development of the Wolverine deposit as Canada’s next major zinc-silver mine. His appointment marks a major step forward for the Company. Early in the New Year we will mobilize underground mining equipment to the property and commence the test mining program as the final work required to complete a bankable feasibility study and make a production decision.
Approximately $8.5 million of the $16.6million proceeds of the October financing is earmarked for the Wolverine test mining program and feasibility study; leaving approximately $5 million unallocated for advancing the project. Perhaps the most encouraging recent technical development is the very favourable test results from the heavy media separation (HMS) test work completed at Lakefield.
The test work indicates that application of HMS technology could provide a very effective pre-concentration step through the rejection of waste and therefore production of an ore product that contains considerable waste material. Successful application of HMS technology at Wolverine could reduce mill process costs on a unit of production basis. However, the main benefits will be in mining where it provides a means of removing waste material from ores prior to processing, with only minor metal losses. The effective removal of waste allows mining to maximize recovery of the high-grade ores; particularly where excessive dilution with waste rock occurs due to multiple bands of massive sulphide mineralization, hangingwall failure, contamination with footwall material and in the mining of thin massive sulphide lenses. Importantly, application of HMS to the mining of thinner zones would allow the conversion, with additional drilling, of significant amounts of indicated and inferred resources into mining reserves, thereby increasing the mine life.
Expatriate also recently completed the acquisition of all of Atna’s interest the Wolverine Joint Venture, making the final $1million payment, and the company now owns 100% of the Wolverine Property. The Company continues to pursue opportunities to consolidate the District and has recently staked an additional 430 claims to augment its prior 3,500 claims.
Exploration Update ~ How Long Until the Next Discovery in the District?
In my last shareholder letter I provided this photo of drilling on Thunderstruck.
We completed three holes on the Thunderstruck target that tested a small part of the Thunderstruck discovery before winter conditions and technical difficulties made it difficult to continue. A fourth hole was drilled on the Goal Net property in November to follow-up encouraging drill results from 2001.
On the Fisher Ridge target, the second drill hole is nearing completion. Drilling on the Fisher zone is following-up massive sulphide mineralization that was intersected in two drill holes completed in 1996 and 1997. The mineralization is on the Wolverine horizon approximately 7 kilometers northwest of the Wolverine deposit.
Assays for these holes will be released early in the New Year. Drilling will resume in late January with in-fill drilling on the upper part of the Wolverine deposit before resumption of exploration drilling in April.
Elsewhere in the District, Teck Cominco made a modest discovery of massive sulphide mineralization immediately north of Yukon Zinc’s Goal Net property.
Pacifica should commence trading on the TSX Venture Exchange at market open on Monday December 20, 2004 under the symbol PAX. Management wishes to thank all shareholders for their support in the approval of the Plan of Arrangement. Pacifica provides current Expatriate shareholders a second opportunity for growth in the search for and development of base metals.
Following the investment of $1.2 million by Expatriate, Pacifica will have approximately 19,050,000 shares issued with Yukon Zinc Corporation holding approximately a 25% interest. An additional flowthrough share financing of 3,500,000 shares is in progress to provide an additional $1,050,000 of working capital to Pacifica.
Expatriate’s prime focus in the first part of 2005 will be resumption of drilling on its Islena property in Chile followed by summer programs on its Selwyn and Yava properties. At Islena, drilling is planned for the first quarter to follow-up on an 8 metre intersection in drill hole UN04RC-03A that grades 3.62% copper, 0.43% zinc, 0.16% lead and 288.7g/t silver, and a similar intersection in hole UN04RC-12.
Drilling is also planned for the Yava property in Nunavut to test geophysical anomalies identified in summer 2004 adjacent to the Yava zinc-silver-copper-lead deposit that was last drilled in 1974. Previous drill holes include high grade massive sulphide mineralization grading up to 28.7% zinc and 360 g/t silver over 1.8 metres within broad mineralized sections.
A drilling program is also planned for Pacifica’s wholly owned claims in the Selwyn Project, which is located within the Howard’s Pass District. This district in the eastern Yukon contains one of the largest undeveloped zinc-lead deposits. Pacifica’s claims are well located within the District and are being prepared for stratigraphic drilling of the favourable sedimentary horizon. The claims have potential to host significant tonnages of strata-bound zinc-lead mineralization.
Pacifica also intends to embark on an aggressive acquisition program similar to that successfully followed by StrataGold over this past year, except that the focus will be base metals, not gold properties.
Market Updates
Finally Zinc Inventories in Free Fall!
For several years, Expatriate has been forecasting a very favourable market for zinc, following the consumption of significant concentrate and metal inventories that resulted from the development of several large mines in 1999 through 2002 period. It was simply a matter of time before the supply deficit began to rebalance the market.
The zinc markets remain in supply deficit, with Teck Cominco recently forecasting a deficit of 373,000 tonnes for 2004 with no new production forecast until 2007. As the following graph by the Australian metal forecasting group CRU International illustrates, the world needs approximately 2 million tonnes of new zinc production by 2007 to meet forecast metal demand. At this time there are no new zinc mines in construction; however, in the past two weeks there have been announcements to develop the Duck Pond deposit in Newfoundland (Aur Resources: 34,500 tonnes of zinc per year starting late 2006 and the San Cristobal deposit in Bolivia (Apex Silver; 180,000 tonnes of zinc per year starting 2007). Other projects are under feasibility study; however, it is clear that new planned production will fall well short of the 2 million tonnes required as these are all significantly smaller than San Cristobal.
Chart by CRU International illustrates forecast Global Zinc in concentrate required and current supply from mines and possible additions.
Requirement for new mine production is approximately two million tonnes by 2007.
Zinc inventories on the London Metal Exchange have declined 70,000 tonnes from 710,000 tonnes to 640,000 tonnes since the time of my last newsletter on October 27, 2004, suggesting an annualized supply deficit of over 600,000 tonnes – which is nothing short of remarkable! If this rate of decline were maintained, there would be no zinc inventories left by the end of 2005. This is unlikely to happen as some producers will certainly be able to expand their production, but the amount of increase is likely to be modest for the following reasons:
1. Most zinc mines are underground mines with long lead times for expansion due to requirement for expensive and time consuming development to access additional ore,
2. Other mines are nearing the end of their mine life, and
3. Several producers cut back development in lean years to reduce operation losses.
The rapid decline in metal inventories and the beginning of a significant increase in zinc price is beginning to attract market interest with several groups now calling for zinc to outperform the other metals going forward. Producers and analysts are now in agreement that hidden inventories are gone.
Current Inventories are now about 640,000 tonnes. The following chart illustrates that as zinc inventories reach the 300,000 tonne level, zinc prices have historically risen sharply, particularly if there is no significant new production on the horizon. The zinc price has risen dramatically from US$0.47 to US$0.55 since my October 27th letter. The accompanying long-term Inventory-Price graph illustrates the ability of the zinc price to rise to significantly higher prices. Investors are also reminded that the price of nickel rose from US$3 to US$7 per pound over a 24 month period commencing fall 2001 as inventories declined to historic lows.
The following quotation is repeated, as it was one of the early forecasts that is now being echoed my many:
Merrill Lynch Investment Managers (MLIM) said on Friday (October 22, 2004 ~London, UK): MLIM's natural resources team, which has some $1.8 billion under management, said it was increasingly looking to invest in aluminium and zinc producers -- metals which have become scarcer recently, just as copper, nickel and others did last year. In a briefing to journalists, the head of MLIM's natural resources team Graham Birch said 2005 in general looked like it would be another record year for mining stocks. Fundamentals such as low stocks, little new supply and continued Chinese demand, were still in place he said, despite nerve-racking swings in investor sentiment. "Some of the other metals which China has not been so short of...look like they are going to join the party in 2005," said Evy Hambro, director of MLIM's natural resources team.
Zinc producers also have the potential to shine late in the metals boom Hambro said, because such little money had been put into zinc exploration and production. While zinc inventories in LME warehouses are at roughly the same level they were a year ago, stocks of 712,000 tonnes are almost 10 percent down on April's figure. "We are still at an early stage there, but it is probably one of the last metals to perform. The market will be in deficit next year, and this will help prices to improve," he said. "We would want to buy pure zinc producers."