Beiträge von newtechxl

In an effort to introduce a wider audience to silver
investing, Japan’s Taisei Coins Corp., along with Hello Kitty
owner Sanrio Co., are selling silver and gold coins featuring
Japan’s most widely-known cat.
The coins commemorate Hello Kitty’s 30th anniversary.
Issued by the Cook Islands in the South Pacific, a set of 3
coins – a one-ounce silver coin, one-ounce gold coin and onequarter-
ounce gold coin -- sells for US$2,210, but the coins
also are sold separately.
One side features Hello Kitty in one of six different
kimonos, each representing a heroine in a classic kabuki play.
The other side features Queen Elizabeth II.
This is the first time that Hello Kitty has been seen on a
coin, and Sanrio officials hope that it will introduce fans to
investing in the precious metals market. Toshiharu Kato, a
spokesman for Taisei Coins, said sales have been brisk. “We went with the Hello Kitty design to specifically attract women, a
demographic that has traditionally shown little interest in coin collecting.”
A First for Japan’s Most Famous Cat;
Hello Kitty on a Silver Coin
In an effort to spur interest in silver investing,
Taisei Coins and Sanrio are selling silver and gold
coins featuring Hello Kitty.

Silver nanoparticles have unique optical properties, especially enhanced sensitivity to changes in their environment, and
show promise as sensors used in applications ranging from laboratory testing equipment to biohazard alarms.
When light is reflected off a substance, it scatters into many different wavelengths, depending upon the material’s unique
chemical make-up.
Scientists at Tennessee’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory led by Dr. Tuan Vo-Dinh have built a silver nanoprobe based on
these light scattering techniques. Tuan says that the probe can detect and analyze chemicals, explosives, drugs, and other
substances of close to a single molecule size. This ability makes it possible to detect minute amounts of substances despite the
environment.
The probe is a 100 nanometer optical fiber honed to a point with an extremely thin coating of silver nanoparticles that are
sensitive to light. When a laser is pointed at the sample, light is reflected and scattered according to a pattern unique to that
substance. This pattern is captured by the probe and fed into a computer for analysis.
Research continues to produce a sensor that can be used outside the laboratory, but the team says it’s just a matter a time
before this is accomplished.
Nano-Silver Used in Super Sensor

Markets for Silver in Food
Processing Expected to Grow
By Jeffrey R. Ellis, Technical Consultant to
the Silver Institute
In a world where there is increasing concern over
the safety of food and how it is processed, packaged
and stored, silver-based biocides are being evaluated
for many different purposes. Sales of silver for such
purposes are still small, less than 10,000 ounces world
wide, and mostly in Japan and in Europe, but major
growth is expected.
Silver, because of its antibacterial qualities, offers
greater hygiene, control of odor, and prevention of
discoloration and structural damage in processing
areas. Use of silver-based biocides also offers reduced
downtime because there is less need to take processing
equipment offline for cleaning. Additional uses are in
specialty packaging, occupational clothing worn by
food processing workers, prevention of pathogen build-up in climate control systems,
and on floors, walls and ceilings of food processing and storage facilities.
Hygiene needs are greatest for meat and poultry processing because of the danger of
potentially deadly microbes such as Salmonella and Listeria. Dairy and bakery products
can also be a large potential market for control of pathogens in processing areas. Ice
making and beverage preparation also make use of silver biocide coated parts in
processing machinery. So far, there has not been any use or need for the processing and
packaging of fresh fruits and vegetables as the pathogen danger is lower.
Silver-based biocides in packaging can also help keep the foods inside fresh for
longer periods of time, but are generally too expensive to be used on throw-away items.
For cost-effective adoption, a minimum of a 1,000 fold decrease in pathogen count is
necessary and often a 100,000 fold decrease is necessary to really excite food processors.
Lower loadings are acceptable against gram positive and gram negative bacteria than are
needed for control of usually less prevalent and less dangerous molds and fungi.
Meat and poultry processors are taking increasingly more steps to minimize any
possible build up of particularly virulent pathogens such as E. Coli H157:O7 and Listeria.
Current steps include welding of metals and other components of machinery so that no
biofilms suitable for supporting pathogens can form in small or narrow spaces. Stainless
steel surfaces, especially for meat and poultry, are widely used and have traditionally not
had problems. Meat and poultry processors also use other well established processes
such as washing and bleaching, high-energy irradiation, and organic antimicrobial
treated parts and surfaces. The American Meat and Poultry Institute (AMPI) has
published a pamphlet on principles of sanitary design for meat and poultry processing
plants. The AMPI is aware of the possible beneficial effects of silver for meat and poultry
processing and packaging, and the Silver Institute is in the process of contacting the
AMPI in order to develop further potential uses of silver-based biocides.
Different government and non-government entities are involved in keeping foods
safe. In the United States, for example, the FDA oversees food contact applications, and
the EPA oversees non-food contact surfaces such as walls, floors, ceilings, and climate
control ducting. The National Sanitation Foundation of Ann Arbor, Michigan, a nongovernment
organization, sets industry standards often codified by government
regulators worldwide for silver coated contacting parts in ice and potable water
THE
S I L V E R
I N S T I T U T E
EL
I N S T I T U T O
DE LA PLATA
Fourth Quarter 2004
Silver biocides in meat
processing equipment
can help reduce
downtime due to
cleaning.
V I R G I N I A D E P T . O F
A G R I C U L T U R E &
C O N S U M E R S E R V I C E S
CoS A N R I O
processing machinery. The US Department of Agriculture only rarely gets called in for meat and poultry inspections.
Use of biocides in food processing in the U.S. is likely to undergo more detailed scrutiny by the FDA. The agency is starting
to look more carefully at health effects of both one-time and cumulative biocide intake resulting from the use of these chemicals.
It must be remembered that although food and beverages can come into contact with biocide treated surfaces, these biocides
must not become food or beverage ingredients. Consequently, it must be demonstrated that all biocides remain bound to the
surface and do not leach into the food.
Most food processors in North America are just beginning to be acquainted with products containing silver-based biocides.
Experience in Japan and Europe indicates that adoption and success is likely.
Continued from page 1

Silverinstitute:
Mexico Issues
100-peso Silver Coin
Honoring States
Other Silver Coins
Also Issued
Mexico's national mint, Casa de Moneda, has introduced a
new 100-peso silver circulating coin series celebrating
the Union of the States of the Mexican Republic into one
Federation.
A total of 32 different coins will be issued, one each month
through 2005, for each Mexican state. They will be issued in
reverse alphabetical order, with Zacatecas being first, then
Yucatán will follow, then Veracruz and finishing with
Aguascalientes. This coin is bimetallic with the center of the
coin being of 0.925 silver, and the outside ring of the coin an
alloy of bronze and aluminum.
Each coin contains 16.812 grams of silver. The Banco de
Mexico will determine mintage levels, and it is believed that
they will authorize 250,000 coins for each of the 32 states. This
coin program could potentially consume over four million
ounces of silver.
Although the coin is legal tender, early reports suggest that
people are hoarding the coins and not spending them.
The Mint is issuing other silver coins, too. A silver one-troyounce
proof coin, with a 10-peso face value, will also be issued
with a mintage of 10,000 coins. A bimetallic proof coin, with a
face value of 100 pesos, made of gold and silver, will also be
issued with a mintage of 1,000 coins.
In 2002, world fabrication demand for coins and medals
grew by almost three percent to 31.1 million ounces.
For Future Reference

Silver Prices 1979-2003
2003 High Low Average
Dec 5.98 5.45 5.66
Nov 5.41 4.92 5.19
Oct 5.19 4.81 5.01
Sep 5.33 4.99 5.19
Aug 5.13 4.86 5.00
July 5.19 4.57 4.84
June 4.61 4.46 4.53
May 4.86 4.53 4.74
Apr 4.64 4.40 4.51
Mar 4.68 4.35 4.51
Feb 4.91 4.50 4.64
Jan 4.90 4.75 4.83
2002 High Low Average
Dec 4.80 4.42 4.65
Nov 4.59 4.41 4.52
Oct 4.50 4.27 4.39
Sep 4.65 4.45 4.56
Aug 4.67 4.40 4.52
July 5.10 4.60 4.91
June 5.11 4.82 4.90
May 5.03 4.53 4.72
Apr 4.74 4.40 4.57
Mar 4.67 4.47 4.53
Feb 4.54 4.29 4.42
Jan 4.70 4.22 4.46
Year High Low Average
2003 5.98 4.35 4.89
2002 5.11 4.22 4.60
2001 4.81 4.03 4.36
2000 5.55 4.56 4.97
1999 5.76 4.87 5.22
1998 7.26 4.62 5.51

CREAM MINERALS RECEIVES APPROVAL OF
FENIX GOLD - SILVER PROPERTY OPTION
Cream Minerals Ltd. (CMA-TSX-V) (“Cream”) is pleased to announce that the TSX Venture Exchange
has accepted the previously announced option to purchase agreement (see press release dated October 29,
2004) between Cream’s wholly owned Mexican subsidiary, Cream Minerals de Mexico S.A. de C.V. and
Juan Pablo Aguilera Barba and Celina Lopez Camarena (the “Optionors”), whereby Cream’s subsidiary
may acquire a 51% right, title and interest in and to the “Fenix” and “La Fenix 2” gold-silver properties
(the “Property”), located in the Province of Nayarit, Mexico.
Pursuant to the terms of the option agreement, the Optionors will vest the 51% right, title and interest in
the Property to Cream’s subsidiary in exchange for cash payments totalling US$100,000 over a six-month
period and the issuance of 200,000 common shares by Cream over a 12 month period. In addition to the
above cash and share payments, the Subsidiary must incur expenditures on the Property totalling
US$300,000 within one year following the date of regulatory approval.
Interest in the Fenix property, 60 km southeast of Tepic, Nayarit, arose when Ferdinand Holcapek, P.Eng.,
the Company’s Qualified Person, was invited by a local miner to visit and sample the La Fenix Mine
earlier this year. Upon examination, a grab sample taken by Ferdinand Holcapek located at the old mine
entrance was assayed, yielding the following value:
(Grab) Gold Silver Lead Zinc
31.9 g/t 9,280 g/t 3.76% 9.39%
Reopening of the mine located an adit into a gently sloping hillside where the remnants of a 1.8 meter wide
vein was found on one level. Subsequent sampling taken by Mr. Holcapek revealed a 96 meter long drift
averaging as follows:
Width Gold Silver
2.19 metres 11.838 g/t 1,482.51 g/t
including a 46 meter high-grade section averaging:
Sample Width Au Ag
#182691 to 182696 &
#182708 to 182709 1.60 m 39.73 g/t 4,783.25 g/t
Although numerous other showings on the property are being found and sampled, a Company priority is to
determine the size of the high-grade zone through an early drilling program.
Once vested with the 51% right, title and interest in and to the Property, the Subsidiary will enter into a
joint venture with the Optionors whereby both parties will transfer their respective right, title and interest
in and to the Property into a newly formed Mexican corporation which shall be owned 51% by the
Subsidiary and 49% by the Optionors.
No common shares will be issued as bonuses, finder’s fees or commissions in connection with this
transaction. The common shares issued pursuant to the Agreement have a four-month hold period expiring
four months from the date of each issuance.
The Property centres on two historic, high-grade gold-silver mines that are separated by a distance of about
700 metres horizontally and about 25 metres vertically. The workings appear to be centred on a fault –
breccia zone having an average width of 1.80 metres within a 100 metre wide zone of silicification and
quartz stockwork. The wall rock is bedded, silica flooded rhyolitic tuff showing sericite and argillic
alteration with some secondary feldspar. The original workings were accessed by shallow adits. The
Subsidiary proposes to drill below the workings to determine if the mineralization extends to depth.
The Property is under the supervision of Mr. Ferdinand Holcapek, P.Eng. Mr. Holcapek is the Company’s
"Qualified Person" for the purpose of National Instrument 43-101, as defined by National Instrument 43-
101, Standards of Disclosure of Mineral Projects, Canadian Securities Administrators.
For more information about Cream Minerals Ltd. and its projects, please visit our website at
http://www.creamminerals.com.
Frank A. Lang, BA, MA, P. Eng.
President & CEO

CREAM SUSPENDS KASLO DRILL PROGRAM DUE TO DRILL RELATED PROBLEMS
Cream Minerals Ltd. (CMA-TSX Venture) has suspended the diamond drill program on its Kaslo
Silver Property, located near Kaslo in south-eastern British Columbia. This two hole drill program
was designed to test the lateral and down dip extensions of the high grade silver mineralization found
within the strongly faulted Silver Bear shear structure.
Diamond drilling was suspended after attempts to drill through the highly mineralized fault zone were
unsuccessful. The initial drill hole was abandoned at 34 metres when the drill proved incapable of
coring the shear zone. A second steeper angled drill hole was successful in intersecting the hanging
wall of the mineralized shear structure. However, the second hole did not penetrate through the entire
width of the shear zone and did not intersect the high-grade footwall mineralization.
Although the drill holes did not reach their proposed depth, the width and intensity of the intersected
shear structure is very encouraging. Prior drilling by Cream in 1998 returned values up to 2,271 g/t
silver over 0.51 metres within a 3.25 metre interval that assayed 390.05 g/t silver from drill hole 98SB-
05. The highest silver values intersected in the previous drill program were obtained from the
strongest part of the shear zone tested during that program. These step out holes intersected what
appears to be broader and more intense shearing that may be related to higher grade silver values.
The company proposes to return to the Silver Bear area of its Kaslo Silver Property and continue the
drill program using a reverse circulation drill.
For more information about Cream Minerals Ltd. and its projects, please visit our website at
http://www.creamminerals.com.
Frank A. Lang, BA, MA, P. Eng.

CREAM MINERALS OPTIONS MEXICAN GOLD - SILVER PROPERTY
Cream Minerals Ltd. (CMA-TSX-V) (“Cream”) is pleased to announce that its wholly owned Mexican
subsidiary, Cream Minerals de Mexico S.A. de C.V. (the “Subsidiary”), has entered into an option to
purchase agreement (the “Agreement”), with Juan Pablo Aguilera Barba and Celina Lopez
Camarena. (the “Optionors”) to acquire a 51% right, title and interest in and to the “Fenix” and “La
Fenix 2” gold-silver properties (the “Property”), located in the Province of Nayarit, Mexico.
Subject to regulatory approval, and pursuant to the terms of the Agreement, the Optionors will vest the
51% right, title and interest in and to the Property to the Subsidiary in exchange for cash payments
totalling US$100,000 over a six-month period and 200,000 common shares of Cream to be received over
a 12 month period. In addition to the above cash and share payments, the Subsidiary must incur
expenditures on the Property totalling US$300,000 within one year following the date of regulatory
approval.
Once vested with the 51% right, title and interest in and to the Property, the Subsidiary will enter into a
joint venture with the Optionors whereby both parties will transfer their respective right, title and interest
in and to the Property into a newly formed Mexican corporation which shall be owned 51% by the
Subsidiary and 49% by the Optionors.
The Property centres on two historic, high-grade gold-silver mines that are separated by a distance of
about 700 metres horizontally and about 25 metres vertically. The workings appear to be centred on a
fault – breccia zone having an average width of 1.80 metres within a 100 metre wide zone of silicification
and quartz stockwork. The wall rock is bedded, silica flooded rhyolitic tuff showing sericite and argillic
alteration with some secondary feldspar. The original workings were accessed by shallow adits. The
Subsidiary proposes to drill below the workings to determine if the mineralization extends to depth.
The Property is under the supervision of Mr. Ferdinand Holcapek, P.Eng. Mr. Holcapek is the
Company’s "Qualified Person" for the purpose of National Instrument 43-101.
For more information about Cream Minerals Ltd. and its projects, please visit our website at
http://www.creamminerals.com.

KIMBER’S CARMEN DRILLING ON TRACK WITH POSITIVE RESULTS
As is now expected from holes intersecting the main Carmen structure, some of the recent holes
have intersected substantial widths. Three of them ended in significant grades (MTR-159 in 15.95
g/t Au and 344 g/t Ag, MTR-167 in 2.9 g/t Au, MTR-170 in 3.0 g/t Au) and will be re-entered for
continued sampling.
The following are the results of continued development drilling on the Carmen deposit. The first
four holes listed were incorporated into Resource Estimate “K”. (Gold ounces: 333,500 in
Measured & Indicated, 219,100 in Inferred; Silver: 27.03 million ounces in Measured &
Indicated, 15.14 million in Inferred.) Holes MTR-161 to MTR-170 are all drilled into the Carmen
deposit and will serve to upgrade some of the Inferred resources to Measured & Indicated when
the next resource estimate is produced.
Drill Hole From To Interval Gold Silver
Goldequivalent
Goldequivalent
(metres) (metres) (metres) (g/t) (g/t) (g/t, Au +
Ag/70)
(g/t, Au +
Ag/100)
MTR-157 20 30 10 0.356 94 1.70 1.29
and 52 62 10 0.268 74 1.32 1.00
and 102 110 8 0.259 73 1.29 0.98
and 114 120 6 0.614 82 1.78 1.43
and 130 142 12 0.724 41 1.31 1.14
MTR-158 30 38 8 0.112 54 0.89 0.65
and 90 110 20 0.723 77 1.82 1.49
incl 96 102 6 2.188 153 4.37 3.72
and 202 208 6 1.418 98 2.82 2.40
and 220 246 26 1.891 16 2.12 2.05
MTR-159 30 38 8 1.051 74 2.10 1.79
and 106 114 8 0.063 41 0.65 0.47
and 192 214 22 6.494 113 8.11 7.63
incl 204 208 Open space
incl 208 211 3 17.000 302 21.31 20.02
Hole ended in mineralization (15.95 g/t Au, 344 g/t Ag)
MTR-160 24 30 6 0.260 87 1.50 1.13
and 52 56 4 0.315 87 1.56 1.18
and 112 120 8 0.280 42 0.88 0.70
MTR-161 148 172 24 0.879 76 1.96 1.64
and 180 186 6 0.916 18 1.17 1.10
and 196 204 8 1.250 23 1.58 1.48
and 228 242 14 1.141 6 1.23 1.20
MTR-162 54 70 16 0.377 70 1.38 1.08

MTR-163 28 42 14 0.266 56 1.06 0.82
and 46 54 8 0.417 64 1.32 1.05
and 86 92 6 0.313 73 1.36 1.05
MTR-164 44 56 12 0.598 90 1.88 1.49
and 102 106 4 6.880 410 12.74 10.98
and 240 244 4 0.791 29 1.20 1.08
MTR-165 176 180 4 0.323 41 0.90 0.73
and 202 254 52 1.240 30 1.67 1.54
MTR-166 50 62 12 0.317 48 1.00 0.80
MTR-167 42 64 22 0.238 90 1.52 1.13
and 98 104 6 0.132 39 0.69 0.53
and 108 114 6 0.043 42 0.64 0.46
and 150 164 14 1.195 50 1.91 1.69
and 174 186 12 1.229 45 1.87 1.68
Hole ended in mineralization (2.92 g/t Au, 50 g/t Ag)
MTR-168 168 256 88 0.603 8 0.72 0.68
incl. 168 172 4 1.297 25 1.65 1.55
180 190 10 0.740 8 0.86 0.82
214 236 22 1.080 8 1.19 1.16
252 256 4 0.846 11 1.00 0.95
Hole ended in mineralization (0.113 g/t Au)
MTR-169 8 12 4 0.435 88 1.69 1.31
and 44 52 8 0.096 40 0.66 0.49
and 268 274 6 1.501 18 1.75 1.68
MTR-170 4 10 6 0.726 39 1.28 1.11
and 172 186 14 0.071 49 0.77 0.56
and 198 226 28 1.465 56 2.27 2.03
Hole ended in 3g/t mineralization (3.04 g/t Au)
True widths
Estimated true widths are generally between 70% and 80% of the intersections reported above.
Exploration targets
During the drive to prepare the Carmen deposit for a pre-feasibility study, testing of the
exploration targets took second place to development drilling. With the resource estimate
complete and the pre-feasibility study launched, more drilling will be directed at exploration.
Robert Longe, President & CEO

NEWSLETTER FOR OCTOBER
Strategic Priorities
At the end of September we announced that resources on the Carmen deposit had reached
approximately 1,000,000 gold-equivalent ounces (most of them in the Measured & Indicated
categories, the rest in Inferred). Early in October we convened a meeting of staff, directors and
consultants to review the steps required to continue advancing a mineral deposit that we expect to
become an orebody. Not many junior companies reach this threshold. When they do, there are
important decisions to make. Companies such as Kimber, which are fortunate enough to be in this
situation, have to decide on such matters as continued exploration, mergers, take-overs, and
production.
The priorities of both retail investors and funds which invest in junior resource
companies range between two extremes. One school of investors argues that the only objective
should be to acquire additional resources, usually expressed as “more ounces in the ground”. This
approach is based on the expectation that the prices of gold and silver will be substantially higher
in the foreseeable future and that production at current prices does not make sense. The same
group points out that the market loses interest in a company that announces it will take its first
orebody to production. The opposing view is that “cash is king”, that dilution must be avoided,
and that production and cash flow are the only sensible objectives. A company which waits to be
taken over forfeits control over its own destiny.
We at Kimber recognise the logic of both arguments and have no difficulty addressing
both priorities. It makes sense to continue drilling for as long as drilling continues to add ounces.
The 80 holes in the last drill program added an average of 3000 gold-equivalent ounces per hole.
Now that we have demonstrated that the Carmen deposit is “open” in three directions, we believe
we can continue this successful approach. Accordingly, we will continue drilling to expand and
explore.
It also makes sense to advance the Carmen deposit to production-ready status. We are
fortunate in having a deposit with excellent grades and widths at surface in several places. A
“starter pit” (the absence of which has held back so many deposits) will allow cash flow to be
generated quickly. We have, therefore, commissioned a pre-feasibility study as one of the key
steps in getting the deposit ready for production. This study will investigate the economics of not
only the Carmen deposit itself, but also of a first-stage pit from which early cash flow may be
obtainable.
The Dome fault
Earlier in the year the Dome fault figured prominently in our understanding of
mineralization at the north end of the Carmen structure. At that time we believed that this
particular structure, not only terminated the Carmen but also controlled mineralization in that part
of the deposit. On the basis of that interpretation the Dome structure would have to be drilled
from north to south instead of from northeast to southwest as the Carmen had been drilled. InEstimate “J”, published in April, 2004, we removed a portion of Inferred resources from the
estimate until we could become more certain of our understanding of the geologic controls to the
mineralization. Now, with the benefit of many more holes, our current understanding is that,
instead of terminating against the Dome fault, the Carmen continues beyond it to the northwest
where additional resources are now being discovered. The Dome contributes a thickening to the
mineralization where the two structures intersect, but the Carmen structure remains the main
control, the holes are best drilled across this structure, and the original interpretation was correct.
Silver
With 27 million ounces of silver in Measured & Indicated resources categories, and a
further 15 million in Inferred, the Carmen is becoming a significant silver deposit. After taking
recoveries into account, the relative values of silver and gold are about equal. With the price of
silver growing faster than that of gold, we need to make sure that investors recognise the
contribution silver could make to the profitability of the deposit.
Options
We received one email criticizing the option package we announced in early October. In
case there are others wondering about how we handle such issues, here is an explanation. We
compiled remuneration and option packages issued by Kimber and 35 comparable companies.
Compared to the norm Kimber has been less than generous in the salaries and options issued to
directors and officers. One of the realities of this business is that we are competing for talent and
experience in a part of the cycle when such people are in short supply. Directors are typically
people who have achieved a stature in the industry which put them beyond our ability to hire.
Although they get paid a modest amount for each meeting, their principal compensation is in the
form of options. Similarly, because they know that people with their skills are in short supply and
because it is part of the culture of this industry, most senior executives expect options to form a
principal part of their remuneration. We believe Kimber’s option policy aligns the interests of
directors and officers with those of other shareholders. The options granted in October were at a
price of $2.14.
Next steps
Except for a scheduled break in late November, two reverse circulation and one core rig
will continue operating to mid December. Metallurgical and environmental studies together with
community relations work will also continue. At the same time an independent engineering firm
will be working on a block model resource estimate and the first part of a pre-feasibility study.
Robert Longe, P.Eng., President
2 November, 2004

Interview ueber Investments in Wasser:

http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm 6.Nov.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/george/george110404.html

1. AFLEASE - Gold and Uranium Producer of Promise
The first is a simple gold/uranium play, but with the emphasis on uranium. As a South African, the writer spent part of his career in finance as a stockbroker in Johannesburg, the other as a bond trader in Cape Town. But his most exciting four year stint took place in between the two moves, from 1983 to 1987, whilst Executive Chairman of junior gold miner Wit Nigel.

Half way through the writer's stormy tenure as Chairman, the company made a public offer for a minimum 25% stake in a gold-uranium producer called AFLEASE, then controlled 65% by Anglo's Vaal Reefs gold mine. Today that company, with a much-expanded capital base, sits on a uranium resource estimated by Anglo to amount to 330m lbs. That would make it approximately 60% the size of Canadian heavyweight CAMECO. AFLEASE also has two small, but proven shallow gold reserves - and a potentially much larger gold resource which has yet to be properly drilled but could ultimately contain in excess of 10m ounces of gold. A 'reserve' is a deposit which has been properly established. A resource is far less certain.

In total Aflease controls approximately 60% of South Africa's easily- available uranium. Grades should initially average close to 1kg a ton (2,2 lbs). A third of projected uranium revenue will come from gold which co-exists in the same deposit, at an average recovered grade of 1gm/ton. Much of the resource lies at or close to surface. The other three gold deposits are quite separate and have nothing to do with the above gold as a by-product of uranium.

The company recently raised R200m ($33m) via a share swap with Randgold & Exploration. A portion of the funds will be used to complete a 'pre-feasibility study' of the uranium deposit. It should take 6-9 months from start to finish. In the late 70's and early 80's the giant Anglo American Corporation sank 240 boreholes on the uranium prospect. These ranged from surface down to 2000 meters. To put it bluntly, the deposit has been drilled as thoroughly as a Swiss 'Emmentaler' cheese.

Seventy of the cores are still available for re-assaying to enable the information to become SAMREC compliant. In the old days of South African mining, exploration of the 'Main Gold Reef' - or even the 'Merensky' Platinum reef - was relatively predictable. Less than a dozen good borehole results were all one needed to prove up a viable mine because it was simply an 'extension' of an existing reef. Imagine having 240 drill holes in a single large deposit! All thanks to Anglo thoroughness.

Subject to the pre-feasibility study producing no unpleasant surprises, the company will approach one of a handful of potential customers with a view to establishing an initial mega mine capable of producing up to 6m lbs a year. 2m would come from a 'soft start' short-term opencast proposition, taking a year or so at most to bring on stream. The mega mine would take four years to establish and would have a minimum 25-year life.

Most of the initial finance for the above mine would come from the customer. Mining and treatment costs are expected to average less than $15/lb. If the uranium price is trading over $30/lb by August next year - currently $20/lb - we have a very sound proposition on our hands. If the spot price hits our more realistic target of $45/lb, we have ourselves a veritable humdinger of a project - despite our long-term bullish projections for the Rand, currently trading above R6/$.

We enclose a far more detailed analysis in the main body of this report, but it is only available to SUBSCRIBERS. The Company's CEO is currently on an overseas 'roadshow,' visiting potential investors in the UK, Switzerland, Canada, the US, and Japan. Japanese gold group Jipangu already holds 20m shares and has recently appointed a second director to the Board.

In the long term, should the pre-feasibility pan out as hoped, and should the market warrant, AFLEASE could one day open THREE mega mines producing a total of 12m lbs a year. This would place them in the same league as CAMECO with their current production of 20m. Although AFLEASE has nowhere near the high grades of CAMECO, it will operate in a far kinder environment. When account is taken of its by-product revenue from gold, the company will enjoy surprisingly low costs in relation to it's the price of uranium.

The company has a present issued capital of less than 325million shares. The ruling price at time of writing was R2,10/share equivalent to US 35cents. We believe that at around R2,50 ( US 40cents) - it would be possible to pick up between 20m and 30m shares in sizeable blocks. The total investment would amount to less than $15m. Should any of our readers be interested, they may contact us via our web site, http://www.investmentindicators.com.

On July 27 of this year, we recommended the stock at R1, (US 16 cents) in a special report entitled: ENERGY UNLIMITED - AFLEASE and URANIUM. It has since doubled off a low base. We believe that by July of next year, with the 'pre-feasibility' complete and uranium at $30, the shares could be trading at R7 ($1,16). By the end of next year, 14 months down the line, with spot uranium probably up at $45/lb and gold at $600 an ounce, these shares could well be trading between five and six times current levels. That would put them between R10 and R12/share, equivalent to US $1,80 each.

http://www.financialsense.com/…oldupdates/2004/1104.html

Exclusive Interview with John Kaiser

By Stanlie Hunt
November 1, 2004

smartstox.com

Exclusive Interview: taped live with John Kaiser, editor and publisher of the Kaiser Bottom Fishing Report, by Stanlie Hunt, host of the SmartStox Talk Show, at the Toronto Resource Investment Conference.

John comments on the market, where it is now and what it will take to continue the next big move in the mining investment markets. He says, ”The resource market will eclipse the bull market of 1996 and that the public will be the next big force in mining investments.”

John reported a huge change in demand structure in a five-year bear market in metals. Exploration juniors raised $5 billion, but their stocks didn’t go up. Smart money put their funds into these juniors as the professionals saw a huge sector upswing coming. But all the parabolic up-trends stalled out in fears of a cyclical bust, Kaiser stated.

“And we had this big wall of worry, about what’s happening in Iraq and all the interest rates are raising. The general public didn’t buy, but the losses weren’t terrible because the stock prices hadn’t risen that much.” And now, copper prices are rising, as are gold and uranium.

“We are facing a period of quantum shift in demand, colliding with a lack of development of new supply. I predict the next leg will be when the general public starts to come in, when the companies start to deliver the sort of discoveries that bring people into the market. I think we’ve seen nothing yet; this is going to eclipse the 1996 bull market we saw, that was all about major discoveries and did not have the big commodity trend backed off to it.”

For more live interviews and presentations of corporations and analysts see: http://www.smartstox.com

NEWSLETTER FOR SEPTEMBER

The main event in September was completion and publication of Resource Estimate "K". This, the fourth resource estimate since we became a public company, brought the Carmen deposit to a new level and a significant step closer to the production-ready status we aim for.

Nature of Estimate

Resource Estimate "K" is based on the 170 holes drilled into the deposit by the end of August this year. The previous estimate ("J"), published in March 2004, was based on 90 holes. Like those which preceded it, this was a manual estimate prepared by calculating the volume, tonnage and grade of mineralized polygons on cross sections. Two cut-off grades (0.5 g/t gold and 35 g/t silver) were used because we were uncomfortable with the uncertainties which a gold-equivalent cut-off grade might have introduced. As reported in the September 28 news release, this approach led to one tonnage at a superior grade and another at a lesser grade, the value of the latter lying mostly in silver. In most parts of the deposit, the relationship between these two tonnages is of relatively high grades of gold and silver enclosed in a sandwich of lower silver grades with little gold. Current prices make it important to recover this silver.

Importance of Estimate "K"

Estimate "K" delivered not only a resource containing approximately 604,000 of Measured & Indicated gold-equivalent ounces and 370,000 in the Inferred category, but it also delivered increases in several key measures: the quantity of gold, the quantity of silver, and the proportion of the deposit in the Measured and Indicated resource categories. We now have a sufficient number of drill holes to carry out a reliable block model estimate on which a pre-feasibility study can be based.

Next Estimate

The next estimate will be prepared by Micon International Limited, engineering consultants based in Toronto, Ontario, who have been engaged to prepare the feasibility study. This block model estimate will eliminate the dual cut-off grades and will present tonnage and grade figures at a series of different cut-offs, each with a different strip ratio. It will also permit year-by-year variations in tonnage, grade, and strip ratio to be estimated.

Size of the Carmen Deposit

Long before Kimber became a public company our expectations for the Carmen deposit was one million gold-equivalent ounces. Now, if Inferred resources are included, we have 602,000 ounces of gold and 42 million of silver. Depending on how the silver equivalence of gold is calculated, we have just under or just over this initial objective. But of possibly greater significance than the tonnage and grade of the estimate itself, are revisions to our understanding of the boundaries of the Carmen deposit. The extent of the mineralized area is larger than first observed. Our initial interpretation was that the north end of the Carmen structure terminated as it merged with the Dome structure. Recent drilling has indicated that the two structures intersect and the Carmen structure extends beyond the Dome. In the southeast the Carmen structure is thinner than elsewhere, but recent drilling has established some of the structures which run parallel to the Carmen have significant widths. To the east, there are additional gold-bearing structures which have yet to be drilled. One example is the gold-bearing structure intersected in a hole drilled to determine water levels. Accordingly, the 17 million tonne Carmen deposit, as now outlined, is still "open" (i.e. not closed-off) to the north, south and east.

Further Drilling

Our policy is to drill where the chance of finding additional ounces is greatest. At present, the best places to drill are in the vicinity of the Carmen deposit where the last 80 drill holes added an average of 3000 gold-equivalent ounces per hole. Beyond the Carmen, reconnaissance exploration has expanded the area of hydrothermal alteration surrounding the Carmen deposit by at least one kilometre towards the east.

The Cocos zone

Trenching on the recently-exposed Cocos zone, which lies 250 metres to the east of the Carmen deposit, has produced six metres grading 1.1g/t gold. The importance of this result is that it indicates the structure is gold-bearing and that drilling is now justified. Any drilling success on this structure will increases the priority to be applied to a broad zone of favourable alteration to the east of the Carmen deposit.

Next steps

Drilling, along with metallurgical and environmental studies, will continue and a pre-feasibility study has been started. We are now reviewing the allocation of funds between increasing the proportion of the resources in the Measured & Indicated categories, expanding the Carmen, and exploring the outlying targets.

Robert Longe
P.Eng., President

Aus Hommel aktuellem Silverreport:

Last, but not least, Kenrich-Eskay is an exploration play. One of the top 5 silver mines in the world is the Eskay Creek silver mine currently operated by Barrick, formerly owned by Homestake, which was acquired by Barrick. Kenrich-Eskay’s property is 10 km south of Eskay Creek. Kenrich-Eskay is discovering Eskay type mineralization in the Eskay Camp. One grab sample from the C10 Zone contained 23,726 g/t silver. That’s 741 oz./tonne! See press release Oct. 6th. Kenrich-Eskay’s market cap is about $12 million dollars. (29.2 million shares fully diluted (July, 2004)) Homestake was willing to pay up to about $50 million for Kenrich-Eskay back in 1996

2.5. The world is nearing the moment of truth
The recent rise of crude prices to more than $40 per barrel could for a short while be
slightly reversed by the announcement of OPEC member states to increase their
production. This shows that in the short term prices can be influenced by rhetoric - but
eventually everybody wants to see OPEC delivering. However, it will soon turn out whether
the “pessimistic pessimists” are right who believe that also OPEC has no more spare
capacity left or whether the world will sit back for a few more years.
In case world oil production can be increased again, this will be taken by many as a
refutation of the claims of the “Cassandras” and as evidence that oil production can
therefore be increased for many more years to come. More appropriate would be the
perception (1) that the remaining oil will be consumed this much faster and (2) that an
increase of production in the short term will in effect further increase the level of oil
dependency - until from this higher level a steeper decline than otherwise necessary will
be enforced.
Recent developments are in obvious contrast to the assertions of the optimists which don’t
foresee any problems in the availability of oil for the next 20-30 years. But they now
acknowledge that price increases might be possible.
3. Critique of forecasts by USGS, US-EIA and IEA
The analyses and forecasts of the US Geological Survey (USGS), of the Energy
Information Administration (EIA) being the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy,
but particularly also of the International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris, are frequently
quoted because they enjoy high credibility and are considered to be a reliable orientation
regarding future developments.
From time to time the US Geological Survey, an American federal authority, publishes
assessments about the global availability of hydrocarbons. It has to be noted that these
studies don’t provide any explicit information about future production potentials.
Often these studies are quoted in a very abbreviated form, while all references to
uncertainties and boundary conditions contained in the studies are omitted. The energy
agencies EIA and IEA proceed in a similar way and use selected statements of the USGS
studies as basis for their optimistic assessments of future production potentials.
Common to all these analyses is a confident perspective which is in stark contrast to the
analyses described in the previous chapters of this paper. Therefore recent influential
publications of these institutions will be analysed in greater detail at this stage.
3.1. US Geological Survey (USGS)
The latest survey of resources is the “US Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment
2000” and was published in june 2000 [18]. Apart from the content of the study, also the
way the results of the study were published is of interest. Main results were released to the
press at the end of march 2000, before the publication of the full report, delivering the
message that up to now the potential for future oil discoveries had been grossly
underestimated and that there was still much oil left to be found [19]. By coincidence this

press release appeared on the eve of a critical OPEC meeting at which an expansion of
production quotas was to be negotiated at a time when oil prices started rising dramatically
for the first time since Gulf War I.
Also unusual and coinciding with the publication of the survey, one of the authors - Les
Magoon - published a poster on the USGS web page (using the official logo) which warns
of the imminent big “rollover”. This is the moment when the oil market changes from a
buyers’ market – in which oil price is governed by consumer demand with no supply
restrictions - to a sellers’ market in which supply constraints determine prices [20]. This
moment will be reached when global oil production can’t be expanded anymore and
begins to decline. According to Magoon, the examination of many analyses leads to the
conclusion that the exact moment can’t be determined with certainty by anyone, but
production peak will be reached in all probability somewhere between 2003 and 2020:
“Nobody is sure, but those willing to forecast say somewhere between 2003 and 2020.
Most everybody seems to agree that it will most likely be within our lifetime, and possibly
quite soon!”
For the illustration of this statement the production curve published by the “pessimists”
Colin Campbell and Jean Laherrere in Scientific American [21] showing a maximum in
2003 is used and by doing this he gave prominent support to their view. Only after
protests of the oil industry, a small annotation was added that this does not present the
official opinion of the USGS. But albeit, this illustration has been visible until today on the
USGS web page with the logo of the federal authority. Therefore, a certain identification
with the content can’t be denied.
In the executive summary of the resource survey 2000 the following phrases deserve
attention: purpose of the study is “... to assess resources ... which have the potential to be
added to reserves within a 30-year timeframe (1995-2025)...” [18]. It is stated explicitly that
those oil findings can be expected in the time between 1995 and 2025. Until today almost
one third of this period of time has elapsed, so that already now we are able to compare
the estimates of the study with reality.
Moreover the wording “to assess resources... which have the potential to be added to
reserves” is so vague that its exact interpretation is left to the reader.
In brief the results of the survey can be summed up as follows:
· Outside of the USA up to 334 Gb of oil can be found between 1995 and 2025 at a
probability of 95%, and 1107 Gb at a probability of 5%. By using extensive Monte-Carlo
simulations a “mean” value of 649 Gb is calculated.
· Furthermore between 95 Gb (5% probability) and 378 Gb (95% probability) of natural
gas liquids (NGLs) can be found.
· In contrast to previous analyses a new factor - called “reserve growth” - is introduced.
The factor for the reserve growth is calculated from the experience in the USA during
the last decades, extrapolated for the next 30 years and then applied on the rest of the
world.
This method of adjusting reserves by a growth factor must be criticised in two respects:
The upward revision of reserves in the past is caused in most cases by an initial
underestimation of the content of the old and large fields. These fields were so large that it
wasn’t necessary for their efficient development to determine their exact size. And some of
these fields are so old (up to 100 years and more) so that the methods of reserve
estimation at the time of discovery were very simple and unprecise.

Today the growth of reserves tends to be much smaller, partly because newly found fields
are so small that a precise estimate is needed, but also because modern exploration
methods are much more precise than in the past. Nowadays it happens quite often that
reserves also have to be adjusted downwards instead of upwards (as lately the example of
Shell has shown).
The second point of critique refers to the fact that – as is known to all experts - the growth
of reserves in the USA in the past was much higher than elsewhere. This is a direct
consequence of the regulations by the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC), which for
financial reasons call for very conservative evaluations at the beginning of the
development of an oil field. This American practice leads to systematic underestimations.
For these reasons this marked reserve growth in the past was only observed in the USA
and can not be extrapolated into the next 30 years, nor even less can this pattern be
applied to the whole world.
But apart from this important aspect, it seems very strange that a scientific geological
institute makes estimates of the geological potential of oil findings and then additionally
applies a growth factor which only reflects the economic rules of “reserve reporting”. It is
obvious that the reporting of reserves can only extend within the boundaries of the
geologically possible. The USGS study mixes different categories of reserve evaluation
which are not compatible. The results can not be regarded as scientifically sound and are
all but reliable.
To arrive at a global picture, US data have to be added to the world’s oil resources outside
the US. For this purpose the USGS draws on its own analysis of the US from 1996 [22].
The total results of the USGS study are shown in the following table.
Table: USGS estimate of potential oil findings between 1995 and 2025 and reserve growth

2.3. Former Soviet Union (FSU)
The oil production of the Former Soviet Union peaked reaching a production rate of more
than 12 Mb/day at the end of the 80's. Soon afterwards production collapsed by almost
50% within 5 years. The production peak at the end of the 80's had been forecasted by
western geologists based on the depletion patterns of the largest oil fields [7]. However,
the following production collapse during the economic break down turned out to be much
steeper than expected. For this reason, Russian companies were able to stop this decline
after the liberalisation of the oil market and to increase production levels again – in some
years at double-digit rates during the last 5 years - with the help of international
cooperations and investments. However, this fast recovery now comes to an end as the
easily accessible fields have been developed and the financial and technological backlog
is widely closed.
Recently the director of the Russian energy agency, Sergej Oganesyan, conceded for the
first time that the growth rates of the past few years can't be repeated anymore and that in
2005 production will probably stagnate or even decline [8].
But despite this strong revival of Russian production, the oil price has remained under

pressure and has been rising slowly but continuously and even exceeded the $40 line, a
fourfold increase compared with 1999. The double-digit growth rates in Russia contributed
to compensate for the inescapable production decline in other regions of the world, and to
counter the rising demand pressure.
The two other important oil regions of the Former Soviet Union are Azerbaijan and
Kazakhstan.
At world level, Azerbaijan is the oldest modern oil region. Its highest production rates were
reached already fourty years ago. Today, we can expect production expansions only in
the offshore areas. In this context, especially the field complex Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli has
to be mentioned. Once fully developed, Azeri-Chirag-Guneshliy probably will reach its
maximum in 2008 or 2009 at a production rate of 1 Mb/day. Soon thereafter the production
rate will decline very fast to almost negligible amounts within 10-15 years. The total
production of this region, however, will increase by a much smaller amount as 150.000
b/day are already produced from Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli today and as in future the
production from other fields will drop noticeably [9].
For some years Kazakhstan was considered to be a potential counterbalance for Saudi
Arabia. Today we know that these hopes were exaggerated. They were nurtured by
speculations of the US federal authority “EIA” which expected oil and gas reserves in the
region around the Caspian Sea amounting up to 300 Gb of oil equivalent. Realistically,
only about 45 Gb of oil are likely to be recoverable, about half of this amount is located in
already developed fields [10].
High expectations regarding future production potentials concentrate on three fields:
Tengiz, Kamchagarak and Kashagan. All three fields contain oil with a high sulphur
content the development of which jeopardises the environment and is very expensive.
Tengiz and Kamchagarak produce oil since some years; in Tengiz alone, more than 4,500
tons of sulphur are separated from the produced oil each day and stored in the
surrounding area polluting the environment [11]. Plans for a production extension are
delayed due to high development costs and difficult geological conditions. In 2000, the
third big oil field, Kashagan, was found. It is supposed that production can be increased
considerably from 2006 on. But there are big doubts whether this will be possible. High
sulphur content, high deposit pressure of more than 1000 bar and an unfavourable
geographical location far away from any infrastructure make it expensive and difficult to
develop. It is certainly no coincidence that two of the big companies being involved in the
discovery of the field (BP and Statoil) have withdrawn from the group of companies
developing the field. After an analysis of the first exploration drilling, it was communicated
that the companies' internal criteria for a development weren't fulfilled [12]. British Gas
already has announced its withdrawal.
Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan will probably be able to double their production rate by 2010 –
from 1.3 million barrels to 2.5-2.6 Mb/day – but to hope for more seems unrealistic.
According to this assessment, the whole region may be able to increase its production in
the coming years, but the very big expansion expected by many people will not occur. A
total production increase of 2-3 million barrels/day is probably already on the high side.
2.4. OPEC member countries
The conclusion of the previous analyses is: the expected production decline in the group of
countries described initially is partly offset by a possible expansion in Russia and in the

Caspian Sea. But there still remains a gap of 3-5 Mb/day to keep world oil production
constant until 2010. This gap has to be filled by the OPEC member countries. If the world
demands additional oil, this amount would have to come from the OPEC member
countries as well.
Conventional wisdom has it that this will be possible for OPEC without any problems.
However, a production growth of 3-5 Mb/day within a few years does constitute a problem.
Particularly as it is widely accepted that – apart from Iraq which can't be considered to be
a reliable oil producer for the time being – only Saudi Arabia is supposed to be able to
increase its oil production significantly. This would require an expansion of almost 40% of
the Saudi Arabian oil production within very few years. This is a very ambitious goal, even
for a country with an abundance of oil.
Moreover, in recent years the suspicion has grown that the conditions for oil production in
Saudi Arabia are not as favourable anymore as is commonly assumed, but are becoming
more and more difficult. In assessing the future production potential of Saudi Arabia,
Ghawar, the world’s biggest oil field, plays a key role. This field was discovered in 1948
and has now been producing oil for more than 50 years. It is a fact that meanwhile more
water is pumped into the field than oil is extracted, and it seems quite possible that the
production rate will decline soon. Anyway, it is certain that Ghawar can not anymore
contribute to an expansion of Saudi Arabian production [13].
There is now a debate going on about the wider question, whether Saudi Arabia will at all
be able to increase its production significantly. This debate was initiated early in 2004 by
Matthew Simmons, an American investment banker. His doubts are based on a
comprehensive in-depth analysis of technical papers in the public domain addressing the
problems of oil production in Saudi Arabia, and on a great number of interviews with
engineers working on site and also a visit of the oil fields in Saudi Arabia.
Simmons has provoked comments by senior executives of the state-owned company
Saudi Aramco. But their comments have rather fueled existing fears instead of assuring
the world. First, it was admitted by Saudi Aramco that the big old oil fields show decline
rates, and that by now Abqaiq is depleted by 73%, and Ghawar by 48% [14]. Moreover it
was indirectly confirmed by Abdul-Baqi and Nansen Saleri, that proven reserves do not
amount to 262 Gb - as is commonly assumed - but are only 130 Gb and that another 130
Gb had already been counted as reserves because it is regarded probable that they can
be developed eventually [14]. If one would apply the same criteria which are common
practice in western companies, then Saudi Aramco’s allegation for proven reserves should
be devalued by 50%. This devaluation is confirmed indirectly by another Saudi Aramco
executive [15].
Furthermore, Saudi Aramco executives tried to counter the fears of Simmons by stating
that a production of 10 Mb/day could be upheld until 2042. In doing this they had to
assume that the above mentioned reserves of 260 Gb are proved reserves (which they are
definitely not). Saudi Aramco went on to state that in case of a more aggressive
development of remaining reserves, production could be increased to 12 Mb/day by 2016
and then could be maintained constant until 2033 [14]. But even this scenario put forward
by the Saudis is hardly assuring in view of the projections of the International Energy
Agency (IEA) which assume that in the long term additionally more than 20 Mb/day are
supposed to come from those regions.
The analyses of Simmons [16] and others (e.g. Bakhtiari [17]) make the point that Saudi
Arabia’s potential to increase production will soon reach its limits.

The Countdown for the Peak of Oil Production has Begun – but what are the Views
of the Most Important International Energy Agencies
W. Zittel, J. Schindler, L-B-Systemtechnik, 12 October 2004
1. Preface
Conditions of the world's oil supply have entered into a new phase: increasing demand
pressure, worries about the security of supply in important oil producing countries,
speculative factors, but particularly, clear indications that limitations on the supply side
have caused unexpected and high price increases. In view of the fact that an increase of
oil production is obviously becoming more and more difficult, it is now almost irrelevant,
whether the peak of oil production has already been reached or whether growth of
production “only” can't keep pace anymore with rising demand.
With accumulating evidence we will soon be able to decide between the conflicting views
held by “optimists” and “pessimists”. According to the doctrine of the “optimists” (mostly
pronounced by economists), rising prices will induce a fast increase of oil exploration and
production, which in turn will lead to a relaxation in the oil market in the near future. In
contrast, the “pessimists” (mostly influenced by geological considerations) expect that it
will become increasingly difficult to balance the increase in demand by a sufficient rise in
supply. As a consequence production will not be able to follow demand and, after a short
phase of stagnation, will decline inescapably.
Many indications during the last four years vindicate the theses of the “pessimists” and not
of the “optimists”. But it would be much more appropriate to leave these misleading
categories behind and to speak in future only about “realistic” and “unrealistic” views. This
topic is not a matter of belief anymore.
At first the present state of the world's oil supply will be outlined. Then follows a detailed
discussion of the arguments of the “optimists”. We attach particular importance to this, as
in most publications there is a reference to the main original papers which are often quoted
with their central messages, but this is rarely accompanied by a critical analysis. In most
cases the conclusiveness of the cited arguments is not questioned since they originate
from institutions to which a high authority is attributed.
2. The present state of oil supply
2.1. Fundamental aspects
The different phases of oil production can be described schematically by the following
pattern: In the early phase of the search for oil, the easily accessible oil fields are found
and developed. With increasing experience the locations of new oil fields are detected in a
more systematic way. This leads to a boom in which more and more new fields are
developed, initially in the primary regions, later on all over the world. Those regions which
are more difficult to access, are explored and developed only when sufficient new oil can't
be found anymore in the easily accessible regions. As nobody will look for oil without also
wanting to produce it, in general shortly after the finding of new fields their development
will follow.
With increasing production the pressure of an oil field diminishes and the water levels rise,

and after some time the production rate begins to decline. This trend can be controlled to a
certain extent so that the decline in production rate is delayed or reduced: by injecting gas
or water into the reservoir in order to increase the pressure, by heating the oil or by
injecting chemicals in order to reduce the viscosity of the oil.
In every oil province the big fields will be developed first and only afterwards the smaller
ones. As soon as the first big fields of a region have passed their production peak, an
increasing number of new and generally smaller fields have to be developed in order to
compensate the decline of the production base. From there on, it becomes increasingly
difficult to sustain the rate of the production growth. A race begins which can be described
as follows: More and more large oil fields show declining production rates. The resulting
gap has to be filled by bringing into production a larger number of smaller fields. However,
these smaller fields reach their peak much faster and then contribute to the overall
production decline. As a consequence, the region's production profile which results from
the aggregation of the production profiles of the individual fields, becomes more and more
“skewed”, the aggregate decline of the producing fields becomes steeper and steeper.
This decline has to be compensated for by the ever faster connection of more and more
ever smaller fields.
So, the production pattern over time of an oil province can be characterised as follows: To
increase the supply of oil will become more and more difficult, the growth rate will slow
down and costs will increase until the point is reached where industry is not anymore able
to bring into production a sufficient number of new fields quick enough. At that point,
production will stagnate temporarily and then eventually start to decline.
This pattern can be observed very well in many oil provinces. However, sometimes this
general pattern was not followed: either because the timely development of a “favourable”
region was not possible for political reasons, or because of the existence of huge surplus
capacities so that production was held back for a longer period of time. However, the more
existing surplus capacities were reduced, the closer the production profile follows the
described pattern.
In the history of oil production, which is now extending over more than 150 years, we can
identify some fundamental trends:
· The world's largest oil fields were all discovered more than 50 years ago.
· Since the 1960’s, annual oil discoveries have decreased tendentially.
· Since 1980, annual consumption has exceeded annual new discoveries.
· Till this day more than 42,000 oil fields have been found, but the 400 largest oil fields (1
per cent) contain more than 75 per cent of all oil ever discovered.
· The historical maximum of oil discoveries has to be followed after some time by a
maximum of oil production (the “peak”).
How close have we already got to the peak? This is the only exciting question remaining.
2.2. Countries outside OPEC and Former Soviet Union (FSU)
On the global level, the development of different oil regions took place at different times

and at varying speeds. Therefore, today we are able to identify production regions being in
different development stages and with this empirical evidence we can validate with many
examples the simple considerations which were described in the previous chapter.
Looking at the countries outside of the Former Soviet Union and OPEC, it can be noticed
that their total production increased until about the year 2000, but since then total
production has been declining. A detailed analysis of the individual countries within this
group shows that most of them have already reached their production peaks and that only
a very limited number of countries will still be able to expand production, particularly Brazil
and Angola.
Critical for the stagnation of oil production in this group of countries was the peaking of oil
production in the North Sea which occurred in 2000 (1999 in Great Britain, 2001 in Norway
[1]). Oil production onshore stagnated much earlier and has been declining since the mid
90's. This decline could be balanced by the quick development of offshore fields which
now account for almost 50% of the production of all countries in this group. The North Sea
alone has a share of almost 40% of the total offshore production within this group. For this
reason the peaking of the the North Sea was decisive. This production decline couldn't be
overcompensated anymore by the quicker connection of new fields in the remaining
regions – it could only be balanced for a few years [2].
Decisive for the further development will be, when the production of Cantarell in Mexico,
the world's biggest offshore field, will start to decline. This field, discovered in1978, even
today contributes half to the Mexican oil production. It has reached a plateau for some
years now. The present production rate can only be maintained by the massive injection of
nitrogen. The yearly amount of nitrogen injected into the field has doubled the world's
annual consumption of nitrogen. Optimistic observers assume that this field will continue to
produce at current levels up to the year 2010, others expect the decline to start much
earlier. Just recently, PEMEX itself has warned that it expects Cantarell to start decline in
2006 at an annual rate of 14% per year [3]. Apart from that, the quality of the oil produced
in Mexico has degraded steadily. Today, the share of light oil has halved since 1997 [4].
This steady degradation of the quality of the oil produced can be observed in almost all
regions having passed the peak and poses an additional challenge for the existing
downstream infrastructures: refineries have to be run with oil of increasingly lower quality.
The supply share of lesser oil qualities is steadily increasing – this causes additional
pressure on the price for the remaining good oil grades.
Particularly interesting is the example of Indonesia, which is the only OPEC member state
which is included in this group of countries as it will probably soon leave the OPEC –
because in march 2004 for the first time more oil was imported than exported [5].
Oil production in regions having passed their peak can be forecasted with some certainty
for the next 10 years. If it is assumed that the remaining regions with growth potential
(Angola, Brazil and the Gulf of Mexico) will considerably expand their production by the
year 2010 (in accordance with the optimistic forecasts of the companies operating in these
regions), total oil production of this group of countries, however, will decline by 7-8 Mb/day
(Mb = million barrels) by 2010. Not accounted for in this forecast is the fact that (contrary
to the assumptions made above) in Brazil production has been declining for 8 month in
series and is now back to the level of 2002, as the connection of new fields was delayed
for economic and technological reasons [6].
As the production of conventional oil is declining, this group of countries will be able to
supply additional amounts only from non-conventional sources. Non-conventional oilsands in Canada and Venezuela will contribute 1-1.5 Mb/day, provided that the already
announced expansion plans will be realised without any further delay.

THE ESKAY TARGET
The Eskay Creek Mine contains several deposits of gold-silver-rich
polymetallic sulfide and sulfosalt mineralization as volcanogenic and
replacement massive sulfide; as debris flow breccias; and as discordant
veins and stockworks.
Production: By the end of 2003, the mine had produced 2,631,813
ounces gold and 122,318,415 ounces silver from 1.66 million tons of
ore. In 2003, the mine produced 352,070 ounces of gold and 17.0
million ounces of silver.
Reserves: Proven and probable reserves at the end of 2003 were
estimated at 0.93 million tons grading 1.0 ounces/ton gold. The deposit
also contains approximately 3.2 percent Pb, 5.2 percent Zn, and 0.7
percent Cu.
Ranking: It is the fifth largest silver producer in the world and the
second-richest producing gold mine in Canada.
Low-Cost Production: The Cash Cost of gold production has been
below $60 US dollars an ounce for the life of the Eskay Creek mine.
AGGRESSIVE 2005 PROGRAM TO FOLLOW
The new exploration concepts, now only 12 months in operation, are yielding exceptional
progress on the Corey property. All major exploration “risks” taken by the Company have
yielded positive results. The Corey is now shown to contain more extensive areas of
prospective volcanic-sedimentary rocks of the Eskay rift sequence. The 2004 Phase One work
has located new occurrences of gold- and silver-bearing massive sulphides with the critical
Jurassic age signature.
The Company is meeting the exploration challenge in the Eskay area and is successfully
locating new Eskay-style mineralization hosted in recessive weathering sediments and/or
altered volcanics. Significantly, all the Eskay deposits and the main SIB showings are
blind (located at depth or covered by an overburden of talus or bog). Historically,
gold-silver bearing footwall veining and alteration generated the initial interest in
drilling.
Final results from the 2004 Phase Two exploration program are still awaiting laboratory
analyses, expected in the first week of November, 2004. The Company’s consultants will
prepare a formal interpretation and report after those results are available.
Meanwhile, Phase One results received to date are exceptional, and warrant the Company to
proceed with the success contingent recommendation submitted in the Spring of 2004. That
recommendation called for $3,100,000 in drilling. With adjustments for new costs, and
follow-up of new zones, the Company estimates the first round of exploration in
2005 will require at least 8,000 meters of diamond drilling at a cost in excess of
$4,000,000. A final 2005 exploration program plan will be prepared after all data from
2004 is received and the Company receives its final report from its consultants.