Beiträge von Schwabenpfeil

*Point two fits right in with point one. The Chinese are all over the copper market and have been for some time. A ways back the Chinese were scouring Chile for the right properties, including Samex’s land in that country. MIDAS’ information has had them securing a substantial portion of 2005 silver supply. With their massive dollar holdings, it is only reasonable to assume they would be all over gold, especially with the dollar likely to continue stinking up the place.

GATA’s STALKER source has the Chinese buying gold very quietly already. MIDAS reported the Chinese scouring South Africa four years ago to secure supply from gold producers. The Chinese, knowing how sensitive the price of gold is to the US, does not want to rock the boat by being seen as too aggressive in their gold purchases, at least not till it suits them to do so. Their timetable for achieving their goals is far different and longer than in the West. That is common knowledge.

Thus, to be able to accumulate cheap gold from the IMF would be right up their alley. The Russians and Germans know what GATA knows re the true central bank gold situation. Certainly the Chinese know half the central bank gold is gone too. It would make sense they would want to accumulate as much gold as possible at these ludicrously cheap prices.

What is abominable is how and why the US and Britain may be willing to sell both countries out because their own scam is falling apart. What a scandal is brewing here!

What you have heard from Britain’s Finance Minister Gordon Brown and the US over the past week or two is nothing more than a Dog and Pony show.

Who out there with any degree of sophistication doesn’t understand that what comes out of these G-7 meetings for public consumption has been agreed upon in advance and behind the scenes? It would be a rare time when this was not the case and some serious candor was vented. Thus when Brown urged the IMF to sell gold and the US objected mildly, it was clear to me something else was at work. To think there were those in the pundit world who used the US comment to knock GATA’s position re the US and gold is beyond embarrassing as to their naivete of the real situation.

This is the deal:

*The work of the GATA camp has revealed the western central banks are short some 15,000+ tonnes of gold MORE than is generally recognized. Likely candidates among these shorts are Britain and Germany. They want to get their gold back before they are humiliated and some public furor breaks out. However, if they go into the marketplace to buy, the price will go bonkers as there already is a HUGE monthly supply/demand deficit. If they can get the Chinese to buy IMF gold, they can get their hands on desperately needed supply without moving up the price. The mechanics would involve some sort of swap transaction with the Chinese, as the British or Germans could gain access to the physical gold the Chinese are already purchasing. Thus, the Chinese could curry a favor and add cheap gold to their growing holdings.

Here we go again, just what I have been waiting for:

Chancellor urged: sell gold to the Chinese

Heather Stewart, economics correspondent
Sunday February 20, 2005
The Observer

Gordon Brown should use his trip to China this week to urge Beijing on a gold-buying spree if he wants to achieve his debt relief plans, analysts say. A buyer with deep pockets, suggests Kamal Naqvi, precious metals analyst at Barclays, could be the best route to persuading Washington to back the Chancellor's proposal for an IMF gold reserves sale to help the world's poorest countries.

'If you can find a big buyer, you can do the sale without affecting the market. China and Japan are the potential white knights, because their gold reserves are so small,' said Naqvi.

Fears that a sell-off could send the gold price plunging have provoked fury among US senators, 20 of whom last week wrote to the Treasury Secretary, John Snow, urging him to reject the plan, which the IMF had been asked to investigate following a summit meeting of G7 finance ministers in London earlier this month.

But Naqvi says a sale could aid gold prices if Brown could drum up rich, new customers. The Chinese government holds only 1 per cent of its vast reserves in gold, compared to a global average of around 10 per cent. 'The basic feeling is that they need to diversify out of dollars, and the full 3,000 tonnes of IMF reserves allows them a one-time opportunity to do that.'

The gold reserves plan is the first stage in Brown's year-long campaign to use Britain's chairmanship of the G7 club of rich nations to introduce a 'Marshall plan' for Africa.

Proceeds from a gold sale would be used to pay for complete cancellation of the debts, worth $6bn, owed to the IMF by poor countries. At current gold prices only 420 tonnes (about 14 per cent of the total) would need to be sold to achieve that. 'This stockpile of gold is no use to anyone, and it could be used to help some of the poorest countries in the world,' said a spokeswoman for Oxfam.

Without US backing, Britain will be unable to get the 85 per cent support it needs on the IMF's decision-making committee for the sell-off to go ahead. The alternative is to revalue the reserves - which are written into the Fund's accounts at only $9bn but are thought to be worth up to $44bn.

However, a straightforward sale is thought to be the Fund's preferred option.

A Treasury spokesman denied that Washington would scupper the plan, insisting that Britain hoped to strike a deal on a gold sale or revaluation as soon as April. 'We are waiting for the IMF to produce its report,' he said.

-END-

Monday February 21, 5:23 AM EST

By Mona Megalli, Gulf Economics Correspondent

JEDDAH, Saudi Arabia (Reuters) - Moves by Middle East oil exporters and Russia to switch some revenue from dollars to euros lie behind the U.S. currency's weakness, and a further rise in crude prices could prompt more declines, the billionaire investor George Soros said on Monday.

Soros told delegates to the Jeddah Economic Forum that the dollar's fall should help to lower the U.S current account and trade deficits, but warned that a fall beyond an undisclosed "tipping point" would severely disrupt markets.

The U.S. current account deficit is more than five percent of gross domestic product despite the currency's three-year slide. The dollar, however, has staged a comeback recently, gaining about 3.6 percent against the euro and three percent versus the yen so far this year.

-END-

Oil news for your perusal:

February 16 – Bloomberg (Mark Shenk): "World oil demand will rise to 83.78 million barrels a day, according to an OPEC report. Chinese oil use will climb by 500,000 barrels a day, to 7 million a day, because of economic growth of 8 percent… ‘The market is very jittery and for good reasons,’ Boone Pickens…said in an interview… ‘Worldwide production is 83 million barrels a day and it’s never going any higher than that."

-END-

Expert says Saudi oil may have peaked
By Adam Porter
Sunday 20 February 2005, 10:58 Makka Time, 7:58 GMT

Energy investment banker Matthew Simmons, of Simmons & Co International, has been outspoken in his warnings about peak oil before. His new statement is his strongest yet, "we may have already passed peak oil".

The subject of peak oil, the point at which the world's finite supply of oil begins to decline, is a hot topic in the industry.

Arguments are commonplace over whether it will happen at all, when it will happen or whether it has already happened. Simmons, a Republican adviser to the Bush-Cheney energy plan, believes it "is the world's number one problem, far more serious than global warming".

Saudi oil peaking?

Speaking exclusively to Aljazeera, Simmons came out with a statement that, if proven true over time, could herald by far the biggest energy crisis mankind has known.

"If Saudi Arabia have damaged their fields, accidentally or not, by overproducing them, then we may have already passed peak oil. Iran has certainly peaked, there is no way on Earth they can ever get back to their production of six million barrels per day (mbpd)."…

http://english.aljazeera.net/N…2BC-920B-91E5850FB067.htm

-END-

A revealing USA Gold post:

Goldilox (2/19/05; 00:36:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 129461)
San Diego's Rating Is Cut on $2.7 Billion of Bonds
snip:

From Bloomberg News

San Diego had its credit rating on $2.71 billion of bonds cut by Fitch Ratings on Wednesday over delays in the filing of its fiscal 2003 financial statement and political struggles over closing a $1.2-billion pension fund shortfall.

Fitch cut the rating on the seventh-largest U.S. city's $46-million general obligation bond rating three levels to A, the sixth-highest of its 10 investment-grade credit ratings, while cutting $1.1 billion of sewer revenue bonds two levels to A from AA-minus. The rating company also lowered $1.6 billion of bonds by two to three levels.

San Diego's pension fund has $1.2 billion less than needed to pay all the obligations it will face to retiring city workers over the next several years.
-Goldilox

Pension shortfalls are not just limited to corporate finances, as municipalities are finding their coffers a bit light, as well. If gubmint pension plans start falling like so many domino's, they might have to look at SSI "reform" from a little different perspective.

Watching a civic discussion goup on the local PBS outlet, I heard concerns about SD declaring default or bankruptcy, jobs growth focusing in the tourism market instead of the previously strong medical and technology fields, housing growth not focusing on the areas needed (more lower cost units to match the jobs growth figures), and subpoenas to fiscal authorities over the bond debt miscalculation related to the new ballpark construction.

Flashlights are beginning to blip on mounting fiscal issues.

-END-

They are buying houses today instead of gold because the Fed has created the environment for housing prices to soar, while The Gold Cartel, with Fed backing, is deliberately capping the price of gold. Today, however, is not tomorrow. It won’t be too long before investors wake up to the changing times. YOU will be there WAY ahead of them.

Slowly but surely the perfect storm continues to build on the horizon:

"The yields on ten-year Treasury paper jumped 18 basis points to 4.27%, their worst weekly performance in NINE YEARS. Since February 9, these ten-year yields have jumped 29 basis points from 3.98% to their 4.27% level on February 18. That's a BIG turnaround, which does not bode well for the future of US financial markets." Cliff Droke.

And while I still think that the gold standard served us very considerably during the 19th century, and mimicking much of what the gold standard does is what we do today, I think in that context so far we have maintained a stable monetary system. And I do not think that you could claim that [the] central bank is facilitating the expansion of expenditures in this country."

-END-

Which takes us to Richard Russell’s interpretation of that exchange:

Speaking of Alan Greenspan, I listened to the Congressman Ron Paul of Texas confronting Greenspan about inflation and gold at this week's Humphrey-Hawkins meeting. And Greenspan gave a most interesting answer, one that explains a lot about Greenspan's thinking and his rationale as he operates today in a world of fiat currencies.

Greenspan said that the Fed is operating as though the dollar was still backed by gold. In other words, Greenspan was saying that the Fed, by managing the markets, was literally taking the place of gold. At that point it was clear that Greenspan did not want to delve further into the subject of the Fed and gold.

The obvious question that Greenspan was avoiding was this -- If Fed "management" of the nation's money is so expert, even without the discipline of gold -- why has the purchasing power of the dollar been declining year after year, decade after decade? And, of course, that's the one subject that Greenspan doesn't want to touch. So the slow, systematic destruction of the dollar and the nation's savings goes on. Maybe that's the real reason why Americans save nothing today. And maybe it's the "hidden" reason why Americans are buying houses rather than (or as a substitute for) gold today.

-END-

Further stating: ‘In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statist antagonism toward the gold standard.’ And, of course, I’m sure you recognize those words because this is your argument."

Mr. Greenspan: "I do."

Representative Ron Paul: "And I would say that isn’t it time -- if we ever get concerned about our deficit spending, and we’ve considered a real imperative, why shouldn’t we talk about serious monetary reform? Do you think that the gold standard would limit spending here in the Congress?

Mr. Greenspan: "First of all, that was written 40 years ago, and I was mistaken, in part. I expected things that didn’t happen. And nonetheless, my general view towards the type of gold-standard effect remains to this day -- my forecast of what was going to happen subsequent to that period has proved, fortunately, wrong. And as I said to you in the past, we have tried to manage the Federal Reserve over the years, really since October 1979 – because remember, up to that point we were in some very serious inflationary trouble -- since then I think we have been remarkably successful, in my judgment.

Also, although the argument is made that the CPI reflects that there’s little or no inflation, that if you look at the price of bonds or if you look at the cost of medicine, if you look at the cost of energy, there’s a lot of price inflation out there. And also, if you look at the cost of houses, which are skyrocketing, which then is reflected into tax increases, the consumer is still suffering from a lot of price inflation that we in many ways in Washington try to deny.

But I think in an effort to discipline the Congress that the Federal Reserve would have a role to play as well, because in many ways the Federal Reserve accommodates the spending because you’re capable of buying bonds, and when you buy our debt that we create, you do it with credit it out of thin air. So it is that facility of the monetary system that literally encourages or actually tells the Congress they don’t need to be disciplined because there’s always this fallback, that we don’t have to worry, the money’s out there, which would not be available, obviously, under a gold standard. But I would like to quote from a famous economist that sort of defends my position. It says -- he says, ‘In almost a hysterical antagonism toward the gold standard, is one issue which unites statists of all persuasions. Government deficit spending under a gold standard is severely limited. The abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists to use the banking system as a means to an unlimited expansion of credit. They have created paper reserves in the form of government bonds.’

Then courtesy of http://www.Prudentbear.com and Doug Noland's latest Credit Bubble Bulletin, we hear the specifics of the exchange between Chairman Greenspan and Congressional Representative Ron Paul on Wednesday before the House Banking Committee.

Representative Ron Paul and Monetary Sanity:

Representative Ron Paul: "Mr. Greenspan, yesterday you were quoted as saying it was imperative that the Congress restore fiscal discipline. And of course you’ve made that point, I think, very often over the years. I have tried my best to vote accordingly, but sometimes I find myself in a lonely category.

I have found that we have a group here that is quite willing to vote for deficits for domestic programs. Then we have another group that’s quite willing to spend for militarism abroad. Then we have another group that likes both. So if you look around for people who are willing to maybe cut in both areas, it’s pretty hard to come by.

But you, in the past, in answer to some of my questions have answered that you believe that central bankers have come around to getting paper money to act in many ways just like gold, and therefore, there was less of an imperative for a gold standard. I haven’t yet been convinced of that.

Take, for instance, the current account deficit. You know, under a gold standard there’s a lot of self-adjustment. And we certainly wouldn’t have the exchange rate distortions between the renminbi and the dollar. So I think there’s a lot of shortcomings under the paper standard with the current account deficit.

More on Greenspan and inflation:

Hi Bill,
I hit the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) Website yesterday after the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation numbers were released for January.

The headline PPI numbers were +0.3% January vs. December and 0.8% for the "core" (minus food and energy). Energy was -1 % in January (!) and food was -0.2%. The preceding are all seasonally adjusted.

What really startled me was that after hearing all week from Greenspan that inflation was well contained I found the following:

From the BLS Website (PPI January prices relative to 1 year ago - not seasonally adjusted basis which are the numbers I trust):

Crude Goods: +10.8%
Intermediate Goods: +8.7%
Finished Goods: +4.2%
Now how long do you think it will take for these prices to work their way through the pipeline?

Also of note is that the price of crude goods in January 2004 was 16.1% higher than January 2003 (i.e. crude good prices in January 2005 are 26.9% higher than in January 2003).

Link: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

I can see why the Japanese stopped buying US Treasuries in September 2004. Why would they want the currency risk plus risking the underlying capital when inflation is clearly coming through the pipeline and will surely force interest rates up shortly?

Any adjustment to M3 and interest rates typically take 18 months to affect the price levels.

I can see why Greenspan dropped the word "measured" from the FOMC interest rate statement.
Regards,
Dave.

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

Weekly S&P
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SW/X

Seems to me the US stock market is putting in a giant double top, which has ominous implications for the months ahead. At the same time, it appears gold is about ready to charge through $430 in the VERY near future.

Many of the pundits on Wall Street are concentrating on the growing number of dividends, high corporate cash levels, firm corporate profits, etc., as reasons to be bullish. My bet is that the macro level re Iraq and US fiscal problems will overshadow the micro when it comes to the market. In addition, the good news which propelled the US market to a recovery over the past couple of years is over. Low interest rates, government stimulus and various tax cuts have run their course with their effects diminishing in the months to come.

The controversy over how China will affect the world economic scene rages on. Another piece of the puzzle for those trying to figure out what lurks in the future regarding this emerging economic behemoth:

Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Foreign direct investment in China rose 10.7 percent last month from a year earlier as companies such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Coca-Cola Co. expanded to tap demand in the world's fastest-growing major economy.

Investment increased to $4.1 billion, as the government allowed 3,563 foreign companies to build stores and factories in January, China's Commerce Ministry said on its Web site. Contracted foreign investment, or investment pledged but not yet delivered, also surged 27.7 percent to $12.8 billion, the ministry said. This figure is an indicator of future investment.

China, the world's seventh-largest economy, attracted a record $60.6 billion from foreign investors last year, as companies tapped low labor costs and a market of 1.3 billion consumers. Government efforts to slow the economy by curbing credit to industries such as steel, autos and real estate haven't deterred foreign investors such as Pirelli & C. SpA...

-END-

Some baseball related points:

*This one amusing. Athletes can build their bodies through regimented weight training routines, but NOT their heads. According to a couple of the Fox show panelists, it seems the head sizes of the home run hitters like Barry Bonds have grown noticeably.

*What about the veterans who earned all-time records without the benefit of drugs? How can the achievements of the drugged ones be compared to those greats? This is a national disgrace in that the baseball world turned a blind eye to the obvious for its own financial motives. In doing so it has rendered the cherished hitting records of the all-time Hall of Fame baseball players to uncompetitive status.

The gold world, the CFTC, The Gold Cartel, the SEC, and the Bush and Clinton Administrations have turned a similar blind eye to the gold scandal. The difference is what they have allowed to occur, while turning their own blind eye, is going to devastate the average American in the years to come. This game these Gold Cartel bums and silent allies are playing will have profound ramifications beyond comprehension for the average Joe and Jane out there in our once great country.

There will come a day (after the stock market tanks, the value of their home has plummeted, and their hard earned savings have evaporated) when the average American will demand to know what happened and why. You can count on GATA leading the charge to explain the deal to them. By then gold will have rocketed above $800 per ounce and it will be the GATA ARMY which will have the upper hand, as we all will have the answers the American public will be clamoring for.

Late Saturday afternoon I was minding my own business and turned on the tube for a little relaxation, which led me to the Fox News Watch Show. One of their featured topics covered the very visible ex-Pro baseball player Jose Canseco, who has written a best seller book, "Juiced : Wild Times, Rampant 'Roids, Smash Hits, and How Baseball Got Big," about major league ball players using steroids, of which he was one of the prime users. Only a few years ago Canseco played for the World Series winning New York Yankees.

What struck me was how a number of the panel on the show, the most outspoken being Neil Gabler, expressed opinions that a feature of this story was how the press abrogated the public trust by not investigating what has been an open secret for some time. The female on the news panel explained the reason why was that a member of the press who tried to break the story about pro ballplayer steroid use would be denied access to the players, the winning teams, and to what the public wanted to read about. The slant of these journalists was that everyone was benefiting from the Home Run binge; new records year after year, increased attendance, and this new excitement was good for business (sounds like the Mafia). Thus: "See No Evil, Hear No Evil, Speak No Evil." Boy, is that familiar. What was fair and honorable has been thrown overboard by the baseball world. Greed won over principle, tradition and fair play.

February 21 – Gold $427 up 20 cents – Silver $7.39 unchanged

Steroids, Major League Baseball, Gold And GATA / What’s Behind The Hideous Brown/IMF Dog And Pony Show

Nature can provide for the needs of people; nature can't provide for the greed of people...Mohandas K. Gandhi (1869-1948)

GO GATA!

As soon as the Access Market opened on Sunday evening, gold was immediately taken down a little over $1. The dollar was unchanged. After gold was hit, the euro sold off a bit and followed gold down. This pattern occurs over and over again ad nauseam.

Today, a firm physical market brought gold right back up with the AM Fix coming at $427.10 and the PM Fix at $427.15. The yen and pound were slightly firmer with the euro a tad on the weak side.

Zitat

Original von clarius

Ich empfinde diese Strafe als zu hart - zumal wir überhaupt nicht wissen, worum es geht.

Hallo Clarius,

ich habe schlicht und einfach den Fehler begangen, mich bereits vor der genauen Festlegung des Abgabeschlusses anzumelden. Bisher lag der meist innerhalb der ersten 10 Tage des Monates.

Dann wurde der Anmeldetermin aber deutlich nach vorne gelegt, nämlich meiner Erinnerung nach auf den 31. Januar. Zu diesem Zeitpunkt war ich aber auf einer mehrtägigen Dienstreise, so dass ich meinen Tip nicht mehr innerhalb der Frist einreichen konnte.

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

The gold shares yawned at today’s inflation news, thanks to the cabal price-capping of bullion. The XAU lost .15 to 96.29 and the HUI gave up 1.07 to 209.89. Guess The Gold Cartel wanted to make sure the HUI closed under key support at 210.

This was a very frustrating week, yet a very exciting one as far as gold’s future price is concerned. The perfect storm is forming on the horizon and few seem to be paying attention, which is just the way the Orwellians and the Gold Cartel want it. They have had their way for a long time, however, if the storm signals are correct, their days are numbered.

The US economy is quietly slowing just as inflation is rearing its ugly head all over the place. The bond and commodity markets reflected this building inflation scenario this week. So did silver. Meanwhile, the war drums towards Syria are beating louder as the smoke signals are becoming blacker.

Gold ought to blow through $430 next week and take off for its 2004 highs. Silver could really rocket. More and more investors around the world are going to want in on the coming gold play, silver too.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

A heads-up from GATA’s diligent Chris Powell:

8:08p ET Thursday, February 17, 2005

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Greta Steyn of MiningMX analyzes the hubbub over proposals that the International Monetary Fund should sell gold to help poor countries and notes that similar proposals in 1999 were not actually defeated, as is commonly assumed. To the contrary, she writes, a couple of big IMF gold sales were made in 1999 but were structured to be only bookkeeping entries, with no new gold entering the market. You can find Steyn's report here:

http://www.miningmx.com/gold_silver/414405.htm

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

Uh-oh:

WASHINGTON, Feb 17 (Reuters) - President George W. Bush called on Syria on Thursday to remove troops from Lebanon and let the country hold free and fair elections.

Bush said Syria should adhere to a U.N. resolution demanding its troops leave Lebanon, where former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri was killed on Monday in a bombing that many Lebanese suspect Syria was behind… -END-