Beiträge von Schwabenpfeil

On gold and crude oil, which closed at $46.37, up 69 cents.

Bill
There is no doubt in my mind that the owners of the Bullion Desk who have this article as the feature this morning (referring to the Cross piece) have very deep pockets and no other interest in Gold other than to see it as cheap as possible for A. The Short Term (Jewelry profitability) and B. The Long Term (as real money) that will in every likelihood reach many more times the 24 multiple of the 70s low due to the never ending nature of the coming oil problems.

I guess if my sponsors had a few hundred billion to spend on physical gold I would want the price trashed as much as possible as well so I could scoop it up! Just a shame we don’t have the same collateral! Patience I guess is a virtue.

The only thing in my mind that stands between an explosion in the gold price and the status quo is knowledge amongst the public of what the coming oil calamity really means to them. Most have no idea or could even begin to understand. Some have read about it but see it as 25 years into the future because the government ‘sik’ has told them not to worry – and so adopt a "who cares" attitude. When we get to $5-$7 a gallon however, and a minimal proportion of them have worked it out, and physical gold demand doubles we are home and hosed.

This is why I believe in leading with the oil story – it is the only thing that people can initially relate to.

I recently over Xmas spoke to some family friends who came specially to visit on Xmas day to find out about my views on oil – I showed them some simple graphs presented by Princeton Professor Kenneth Deffeyes at the Oct 2004 Society of Petroleum Engineers conference in Houston. It is simple and irrefutable scientific proof that energy wise globally we are stuffed and are headed into terminal decline within months.

This guarantees ongoing stagflation post peak (circa 2007) until a mighty deflationary crash will occur to finally facilitate the penny dropping amongst the public. By then alas it will be too late. By then the Bullion desk will be goading people to buy gold as money and those that bought at $420 will be selling at 4 – maybe 5 figures.

The links to the Deffeyes material is as follows:

The slide presentation including the graphs
http://www.spe.org/specma/bina…2980160ATCE04Deffeyes.pdf
The video lecture
http://interface.audiovideoweb…4/SPE/deffey.wmv/play.asx
All the best
Dave

Silver input

Bill,
Hope all is well. I just finished reading midas and I decided to check the silver warehouse stocks. One thing that caught my eye in this puzzling silver story was this. If you take a look, all the silver that came into the warehouse was in the eligible category. I noticed that 24,449 ounces were transferred from the registered category at brinks, to the eligible category at the delaware depository. Also, the rest some 522,515 ounces were brought in to the eligible category at the scotia mocatta warehouse. So actually, 24,449 ounces were taken out of play and maybe into some strong hands. I particularly like to see the registered category dwindle as this means things are getting tighter. Also I just read Bob Chapmans International Forecaster and he mentioned that there were no 90% bags left as of wednesday. When this thing blows, who knows how high the price can go. It is silly to read all of these price targets. There is no way anybody can predict what the price will be. Remember, in the first leg up of the great bull market at the end of the seventies, the price went to $15.00 in one month. This was when there was a BILLION ounces in the warehouse. Also there was no leasing back then and silver is far scarcer now than it was back then. You also have a much greater industrial demand, and do not forget that silver was priced in 1980 dollars not 2005 dollars. This market is coiled to the max, if there is any sign of trouble, we will be waving at $10.00 as it will zoom right past it. Remember your midas a few weeks ago when you said you might see it rise $3.00 in a day? This market to me is not going to rise gradually as one might think it is going to erupt. I e-mailed you my letter to spitzer last week, and when I get a response I will let you know. I have had enough of all of this and I am praying to the lord that this corruption will come to and end. I hope you are also. All my best to you and your family.
Scott Hennessey

Houston’s Dan Norcini with a few comments:

Hey Bill:
Open interest has now dropped a bit over 95,000 contracts from its peak made in November last year when it reached 370,786.

It is currently at 275,461. Last time we were at these levels front month gold was trading near $413.00 in September 2004. The low of 247,918 in open interest before the next up leg commenced also occurred in that same month.

A close over $427 today in February would be very constructive from a technical perspective as it would tend to reinforce more of a "V" bottom on the charts. It might also put an end to the bleeding of the open interest and entice the funds back into the long side. I will be most interested in seeing tomorrow's release to ascertain whether we had some further liquidation in there or the beginning of an increase in the Open interest totals.

If Silver can manage to get itself above 680-682 on a closing basis, that too would bring in some additional buying by specs.

Time will tell.
Best,
Dan

Oil inventories:

10:31 DOE reports crude oil inventories (3M) barrels vs. consensus (1.9M) barrels
Gasoline inventories +1M barrels vs. consensus +1.4M. Distillate inventories+1.9M barrels vs. consensus +900K barrels. Feb. WTI crude is tradingdown in initial reaction.
* * * * *

0:32 API reports crude oil inventories +2.8M barrels
Gasoline inventories +2.4M barrels, while distillate inventories +2.5M barrels. Feb. WTI crude last quoted at $45.75 vs. $46.10 prior to release.

14:00 Dec. monthly budget statement reported ($3.4B) vs. consensus $0.0B
December 2003 reading unrevised from ($17.6B).
* * * * *

Treasury Secretary Snow on Social Security Reform:

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2005/TresSec.jpg]

What’s next to affect the dollar?

U.S. mulls strikes on Syria

By Richard Sale
UPI Intelligence Correspondent

New York, NY, Jan. 11 (UPI) -- Bush administration hard-liners have been considering launching selected military strikes at insurgent training camps in Syria and border-crossing points used by Islamist guerrillas to enter Iraq in an effort to bolster security for the upcoming elections, according to former and current administration officials…

-END-

The dollar is already in bad shape. What if the Arabs really decide to dump it?

Euro to Play Greater Role in Global Reserves, Says SAMA Chief Al-Sayari
Khalil Hanware, Arab News

JEDDAH, 12 January 2005 — Hamad Al-Sayari, the governor of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA), said there has been no shift in world currency reserves from dollars into euros. He also said that the European single currency would play a greater role in global reserves in the future.

Unconfirmed reports of funds being moved from dollars into euros have contributed to the greenback’s decline over the past three years. A renewed wave of selling pushed the dollar to record lows of $1.3667 against the euro in December last year. The dollar also fell against the euro yesterday. The euro rose to 1.3166 dollars from 1.3088 late on Monday in New York.

"I don’t believe that there is a new shift (into euros) but the market has been expecting a dollar change (in values) due to the US deficits," Al-Sayari said yesterday in Basel, Switzerland, while attending a meeting of central bank governors…

-END-

Charlie McCarthy Snow was sent out to spin right on cue:

Trsy's Snow-U.S. trade gap reflects growing income

NEW YORK, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Treasury Secretary John Snow said on Wednesday the wider than-expected U.S. trade deficit reflects growing U.S. disposable income.

Snow was speaking at the New York Stock Exchange.

Asked by a reporter about the record U.S. trade deficit in November and the prospects the deficit may widen this year, Snow said:

"The economy is growing at such a fast rate that it is generating lots of disposable income...some of which is used to buy goods from our trading partners."

"We are growing faster than our trading partners and we are creating more disposable income than they are," he said.

"We need Europe to be more of an engine of growth and we need Japan to be more of an engine of growth," Snow said.

As Europe and Japan's economies "grow faster they will buy more from us," he added.

Snow also said the world's growth rate will be on the G7 agenda. The Group of Seven wealthy nations is slated to meet in February.

-END-

That deficit news should have sent gold up sharply and the US stock market reeling. Not when you have the Working Group on Financial Markets going into action. After an early drubbing, the market roared back. When will this manipulation ever end? The DOW rose 62 to 10,618 and the DOG gained 13 to 2093.

Iraq is a mess, the trade deficit is a horror show, as are the US budget deficits. Nothing matters. The Plunge Protection team will continue to glue the markets together until they just blow up. That is when the tsunami hits.

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

Some more on the trade deficit:

WASHINGTON, Jan 12 (Reuters) - The U.S. trade deficit widened unexpectedly in November to a record $60.3 billion, propelled by the highest-ever oil import bill and a drop in exports, a government report showed on Wednesday.

The trade gap topped $60 billion for the first time and defied Wall Street expectations that it would narrow to $54 billion in November. October's deficit was revised up to a $56.0 billion gap from the originally reported $55.5 billion.

The deficit has continued to balloon despite a 50 percent drop in the value of the dollar against the euro over the past three years, which has been expected to gradually narrow the gap.

The trade shortfall for the first 11 months of 2004 was $561.3 billion, well past the record of $496.5 billion set for all of 2003.

Although average oil import prices retreated slightly in November, they remained high enough to push the value of crude oil imports to record $13.4 billion.

Meanwhile, imports from China fell only fractionally to $19.6 billion from the record $19.7 billion set in October. The trade imbalance with China accounts for about 25 percent of the overall U.S. trade deficit.

Rising U.S. consumer demand for household goods and other products helped boost overall imports by 1.3 percent to a record $155.8 billion. Strong demand for advanced technology products widened the deficit in that category to a record $5.8 billion.

U.S. exports slipped 2.3 percent to $95.6 billion, as shipments of U.S. industrial supplies and materials -- including things such as plastic and chemicals -- fell in the face of weaker foreign demand. U.S. auto and auto part exports also edged lower.

Even though the drop in the value of the dollar makes U.S. exports more competitive, demand from major U.S. trading partners remains weak and the Federal Reserve has cautioned against expecting any significant improvement in the near term.

While the U.S. trade deficit with China improved slightly from the record set in October, the bilateral gap with Japan was the highest since October 2000 and deficits with Canada, Russia and South Korea set records in November.

-END-

The John Brimelow Report

TOCOM buying; NY covering; Bears worrying?

Wednesday, January 12, 2005

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $8.56, PM $8.04, with world gold at $422.50 and $421.70. High; lavish for legal imports.

Superficially TOCOM was restrained. The active contract closed down 3 yen but world gold went out $1 above the NY close. Volume was equal to 21,500 Comex lots (-40%). However, open interest rose the equivalent of 1,298 Comex lots, and according to Mitsubishi (by inference) the general public long jumped 10.4 tonnes (3,344 Comex contracts). This despite a firm yen. It appears Japanese gold appetite may be reviving – which could be important.

NY yesterday traded 57,872 contracts – a steep 26% more than estimated. Open interest fell another 3,614 contracts – another 11.2 tonnes, meaning open interest is down some 54,500 contracts or 170 tonnes since the Dec 28 peak. But for the first time since then, open interest declined appreciably on an up day in gold – gold finished + $2.70c. Perhaps short covering has begun.

Nevertheless, there continues to be serious overhead resistance, which judging from today’s action is keyed to the E320.5 level rather than a $US price. If NY is covering shorts and TOCOM indeed building longs again - quite apart from Indian activity - this level will be expensive to defend.

The noted bear is sufficiently concerned about Japan to attempt a disparagement (usually he is very discreet about TOCOM action). He continues to anticipate a bullish event short term – anyone figuring out what it is urged to share this knowledge!

JB

With all that is going on in the world, this is what people hear at a gold conference from a supposed expert, a pro. One of my colleagues called her an incompetent joke and suggested I not get my dander up. Yet, this JOKE is the one who has the ear of the press around the world; that potential investors make note of. It is this JOKE who purposely prevents the truth about the gold market from surfacing.

I refer again to a MIDAS in 2000:

9/10 - Letter to FAZ in Response to Jessica Cross and The World Gold Council /GERMAN TRANSLATION

An den Herausgeber der FAZ
Herr Jürgen Jeske
Hellerhofstraße 2 - 4
60327 Frankfurt am Main

Dear Herr Jeske,
According to the Frankfurter Allgemeine's September 7 article, the World Gold Council and its market analyst, Jessica Cross, dispute the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee's findings about the dangerous size of the international gold loans, and they believe that there is no evidence of collusion to suppress the gold price.

As chairman of GATA, I would like to reply…

To bolster my case I refer to splendid commentary by Reg Howe of http://www.GoldenSextant.com. Please see Appendix.

GATA’s Andrew Hepburn matter-of-factly stated to the attendees at the GATA luncheon at the New Orleans Investment Conference that the intellectual capital in the gold industry was in the room (GATA camp) and most of the rest was "drivel." Compare what Reg has to say re gold versus that of Jessica Cross/World Gold Council and tell me that is not so.

Something has to be done about this. Guess what? Something is being done. Stay tuned!

Spoke with our STALKER source today who relays the following:

*The Chinese are buying up everything: coal, silver, oil, copper, gold etc. As we all know they are loaded up with dollars. Rather than dumping them, they are going around the world and buying materials and stacking up inventories.

*They have four gold exchanges up and running with 4 more to come.

*Demand for gold in China will accelerate to a substantial degree.

*One big question is how their currency will be accepted down the road. Our Stalker source likens it to the Australian dollar as far as coming acceptability.

*Feels the powers will do all they can to keep gold in the $454 to $480 area. However, he believes gold will hit $500 this year and then they will go all out to stop the price from going further.

*Silver will outperform gold.

*Demand for gold will increase in Europe.

*The Italians will be buying more gold for jewelry purposes and the Indians will increase their buying for investment purposes (high-karatage jewelry).

*He says President Bush has a number of skeletons in his closet and there are a number of scandals brewing in the Bush Administration.

*The main STALKER, thought to be Chinese has finished his gold buying. One of the smaller stalkers took profits on his gold buys and won’t be back. The other smaller stalkers (3 of them), also thought to be of Chinese origin, still have $1 ½ billion of gold buying to do.

There couldn’t be one Café member who would invest in gold, or the shares, after reading this nonsense. I didn’t think it could get worse, but it did today.

Jessica Cross, is the wife of the former number two at the South African Reserve Bank. She has been allied with the World Gold Council over the years, presently works for Virtual Metals, and is often invited to speak at various gold conferences. She is also able to get press whenever she wants it.

So now for some comments emanating from today’s gold conference in Sweden:

By Simon Johnson
Reuters
Wednesday, January 12, 2005

STOCKHOLM -- Gold is no longer the metal of choice for the adornment of the ruling class because "chavs" are reducing its elitist appeal.

Rappers, hip-hop artists, and youngsters copying their pop icons are gold's new poster-children and the move downmarket could hurt the gold price in the longer term, according to analyst Jessica Cross….

Cross believes that gold jewellery is losing its gilt-edged status.

Quoting from a British website, she defined the modern British jewellery lover as someone who drapes their body with "hunks of worthless 9 carat gold crap."

British "chavs" -- new slang for the urban underclass -- and their "bling-bling" and hip-hop U.S. cousins buy high-fashion brands of clothes but bargain basement pendants and rings.

This is putting off the traditional -- and wealthy -- gold buyer, according to Cross.

Some might call this snobbery but there are signs that demand for gold jewellery, which makes up around 80 percent of annual demand for gold, is waning….

***

For the full article:
http://www.reuters.co.uk/newsA…pe=topNews&storyID=652427

-END-

A few excerpts from last week’s WGC farce:

Financial Times

Into a new golden age
By Kevin Morrison
Published: January 6 2005

When the World Gold Council, an industry body funded by mining groups accounting for about 35 per cent of global gold output, wanted to launch a new advertising campaign for gold jewellery, it turned to photographers from National Geographic rather than from the glossy fashion magazines.

Michael Yamashita, William Albert Allard, Jodi Cobb and Joel Sartore are more used to taking pictures of people and landscapes in all corners of the globe than going on fashion shoots.

Steve Kershaw, creative director at Bartle Bogle Hegarty, the advertising agency that worked on the gold campaign, says the photographers were chosen because the aim was to have a campaign to show that ordinary people have a connection with gold….

-END-

So you have a bunch of slinking crooks keeping the gold price artificially suppressed and there is nary a peep about this except from the GATA camp. Meanwhile, many of the share prices are stinking up the place. Besides intervention short-selling by the same bunch of bums, many of the shares aren’t going anywhere because the gold companies can’t make any money at these prices. Their costs keep going up as the Canadian dollar and South African rand go up relative to the rise in the gold price. A good many are being squeezed. I know this for a fact from a couple of the shrewdest people in the industry.

Thus, you would think many of the gold companies would be SCREAMING FOUL! Yet, year after year they say and do nothing. Unbelievable how this can go on and on.

It is actually worse than that. The leaders in the industry support an organization, the World Gold Council, which is clueless/devious and hell bent on doing what it can promotion-wise to turn people away from gold as investment.

The dollar fell sharply to 82.18 down .89. The euro leaped to 132.75, up 1.47, while the yen rose steeply to 102.38. On this kind of trade news the gold market was not allowed to respond as it would in a free market. Gold should have surged $15, instead of a measly 4 bucks.

All you need to do to understand what is going on here in the gold market is review the December 29th MIDAS commentary again:

The motives of The Gold Cartel are as plain as day:

*The Gold Cartel and US financial market power structure know the dollar must fall. However, they are concerned a dollar rout could cause some sort of financial market instability or panic. To prevent such an occurrence, they are following Paul Volker’s insight and what he had to say regarding the rise in the gold price in 1980:

"…..Joint intervention in gold sales to prevent a steep rise in the price of gold, however, was not undertaken. That was a mistake.

"Through March, the price of gold rose rapidly, and that knocked the psychological props out from under the dollar."

Could it be any clearer what is going on here?

***

What a stunner! The dollar quickly went into free fall after the announcement and gold began a labored rally. Obviously The Gold Cartel knew what was coming and wanted gold to climb out of a hole and make it easier for them to institute their $6 Rule. The market has only been open an hour and the high so far is $427.40, up $5.90, which will surely be the high of the day – therefore, there is little need to wait to do this commentary. The cabal forces are on full alert and have gone into action like so many other times over the years.

Vet Café members: how many times have I brought The $6 Rule to your attention over the past few years, say 30? 40? Recently you saw gold drop $10+ three times within a two week period, yet it is never allowed to rise more than the parameters of the cartel’s $6 Rule. Wouldn’t you think any one of the dingbat mainstream gold pundits might make note of this after such repetitive trading activity? Wouldn’t you think someone in the gold industry might raise a Red Flag? This is the dopiest industry in history.

Even those in the gold world with the intellectual capacity of a "grapefruit" could see the price of gold was capped, manipulated, managed today. The gold market is oversold. Most markets which are oversold, and after the specs dumping 100,000 long positions, would soar in price on unexpected bullish news. NOT GOLD!

January 12 – Gold $425.50 up $4 – Silver $6.70 up 10 cents

$6 Rule AGAIN / The Gold Industry Needs An Overhaul

"To prevent inquiry is among the worst of evils." --Thomas Holcroft

"Borrowers are nearly always ill-spenders, and it is with lent money that all evil is mainly done and all unjust war protracted." - John Ruskin, The Crown of the Wild Olive (1866)

GO GATA!!!

When I retired last evening gold was up $1 in Asian trading and the dollar was slightly higher. When I awoke, the dollar was slightly weaker, yet gold was down $1. Same drill as we have seen so often of late. I wondered what was up. Gold was the very oversold market, not the euro.

It didn’t take long to find out:

08:30 Nov. Trade deficit widens to $60.3B vs. consensus $54B
Prior deficit revised to $56B from $55B. Watch potential impact on the dollar.

Ferdi Lips has one of the most outstanding reputations in the entire gold industry. Nice to see this development for this veteran and staunch GATA supporter:

Renowned Gold Expert Ferdinand Lips Joins Desert Sun Advisory Committee
1/11/05

TORONTO, Jan 11, 2005 (BUSINESS WIRE) --

The Board of Directors of Desert Sun Mining Corp (TSX:DSM)(AMEX:DEZ) is pleased to announce that Ferdinand Lips has joined the Company's Advisory Board. Mr. Lips is a well-known fund manager and is one of the world's foremost authorities on the gold market.

Stan Bharti, P.Eng., Chairman of Desert Sun commented: "We are very pleased that Ferdinand Lips has joined the Advisory Board of Desert Sun Mining. His vast knowledge and experience will be an invaluable addition to the strong group of Advisors we have assembled."

Born in Switzerland, Ferdinand Lips has over 50 years experience in banking and finance. Over his career he has been Managing Director of Rothschild Bank AG, Zurich and Chief Executive Officer of his own Private Bank, in addition to a top-performing precious metals fund manager. With 30 years direct experience in the gold industry, Mr. Lips has served as a Director of Randgold & Exploration (JSE:RNG), Randgold Resources (LSE:RRS.L), and Durban Roodeport Deep (Nasdaq:DROOY). He is currently Chairman and manager of the Top-Gold Fund, based in the Principality of Liechtenstein.

Mr. Lips was a founding member of the Swiss Association of Security Analysts and is a trustee of FAME, Foundation for the Advancement of Monetary Education, based in New York. He has widely lectured on monetary history, bonds and stock markets.

In addition to Ferdinand Lips, the Desert Sun Advisory Board includes William Clarke, former Canadian Ambassador to Brazil, David Williamson, a mining and commodity analyst in London, UK, Dr. Rick Garnett, a geologist with over 40 years experience worldwide, and Dr. Chuck Thorman, a recognized expert in the geology of Brazil.

Desert Sun Mining is a Canadian gold exploration and development company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange and the American Stock Exchange. Desert Sun owns 100% of the Jacobina Mine and the 155 km long Bahia Gold Belt in the state of Bahia, in northeastern Brazil. The mine will re-start operations in the first quarter of 2005. The SNC Lavalin Feasibility Study, completed in September 2003, indicates that the mine can produce at a rate of 102,000 ounces of gold per year at an average cash cost of US $189 per ounce.

As a result of the 2004 exploration program, both Measured and Indicated resources and Inferred resources have increased significantly. Current Measured and Indicated resources now total 24,800,000 tonnes @ 2.53 g/t Au containing 2,050,000 ounces of gold. Inferred Resources total 22,000,000 tonnes @ 2.61 g/t Au containing 1,900,000 ounces of gold. The company is in the process of updating its Reserve Estimate.

Desert Sun previously released (see press release of February 12, 2004 and report filed on SEDAR) the results of a scoping study by SRK Consulting that extended the SNC Lavalin Feasibility Study mine plan an additional 11 years by scheduling the potentially "mineable tonnes" resulting from the conversion of inferred resources based on historical data. SRK Consulting considered that Jacobina has the potential to deliver "economically mineable tonnes" containing 2 million recoverable ounces of gold and that the optimum production rate at Jacobina was likely 5,200 tonnes per day or 154,000 ounces of gold per year. While, it must be cautioned that the SRK study is not adequate to definitely confirm the economics of the inferred mineral resources, the 2004 drilling program has successfully upgraded a substantial amount of the existing inferred resource to the indicated category which can now form the basis for an expanded feasibility study. (http://www.desertsunmining.com).

Statements in this release that are not historical facts are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Readers are cautioned that any such statements are not guarantees of future performance and that actual developments or results may vary materially from those in these "forward-looking statements".

Desert Sun Mining Corp. (TSX:DSM) (AMEX:DEZ)
SOURCE: Desert Sun Mining Corp.
Desert Sun Mining Corp. John Carlesso (416) 861-5881 or 1-866-477-0077 OR Desert Sun Mining Corp. Kam Gill (416) 861-0341 or 1-866-477-0077

Both James and John Rubino were recently interviewed by Jim Puplava. Here's the link:

http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2005/Turk_Rubino.html

I have had the pleasure of reading an advance copy and enjoyed it immensely.

The gold shares continue to rebound. The XAU gained .86 to 95.01, while the HUI rose 1.98 to 206.73.

Silver has turned the corner while gold is doing what it can to regain its market composure. By the end of the week an oversold gold market should have steadied and be ready to join silver in a resumed upward climb.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS