Beiträge von Schwabenpfeil

One reason gold will soar against the euro later this year:

Europe 'Will Have to Act on Dollar'

By Edmund Conway
The Telegraph, London
Saturday, January 1, 2005

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?
xml=/money/2005/01/01/cnecb01.xml&menuId=242&sSheet=/money/2005/01/01/
ixcity.html

The European Central Bank will this year be forced to intervene in the foreign exchange markets, economists predicted yesterday, as the dollar narrowly avoided hitting a new all-time low against the euro.

The Bank will either drastically increase the number of euro banknotes in circulation or cut interest rates to prevent the currency pushing much further above the $1.40 mark, warned Rob Carnell of ING Financial….

-END-

Drastically increasing euro banknotes or cutting interest rates is extremely gold bullish, especially against the euro.

An update from Jesse:

We had a 'hidden' intervention last week, as the Fed was cranking out record securities lending all week, probably helping the shorts roll against a 10 billion slug of fresh custodial money from one of its client states (Japan or Korea) or perhaps an extortionate move against the Europeans who gave in to the weight of the soaring euro.

Gold under continuing paper assault that is not moving with the averages well, indicating it will be over fairly soon. This looks like a week for early head fakes and then a return to trends.

http://jessel.100megsfree3.com/interventionmeter.gif

-END-

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

US economic numbers:

10:00 ISM Prices Paid reported 72 vs. consensus 72
Prior reading revised to from 74.
* * * * *

10:00 Dec. ISM reported 58.6 vs. consensus 58.5
Prior reading was 57.8.
* * * * *

10:00 Nov. Construction Spending reported (0.4%) vs. consensus 0.4%
Prior reading revised to 0.3% from 0.0%.

The John Brimelow Report

Gartman well informed! - but liable to be pecked

Monday January 3, 2005

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $9.87, PM $8.79, with world gold at $433.35 and $435.40. Very high: lavish for legal imports. India is a major support to world gold at these prices. The Bombay Stock Exchange closed at another record high today, implying that further rupee-bolstering inflows are likely.

Today’s most dramatic physical news comes from Turkey. The Istanbul Gold Exchange has posted Turkey’s December gold imports: 24.65 tonnes, 84% up on Ramadan-disrupted November and 129% above December ’03. Imports for the whole year were 250.93 tonnes, 17% above 2003 (which was a record) and, amazingly, more than ’01 &’02 added together. This was despite $US weighted average prices being unchanged from November ($443.33 vs. $444.16 -Turkish currency prices were 2.2% lower.) November and December prices were of course easily the highest in the data matrix the Exchange offers. See

http://www.iab.gov.tr/english/data03.php

and

http://www.iab.gov.tr/english/data02.php

Turkey’s ability to import gold in December at virtually a 300 tonne annual rate despite the extremely high average price is staggering. November imports, it might be remembered, were close to triple November ’03.

Obvious inferences

The demand schedule for gold in the Middle East – where much of this metal is thought to be going – has shifted positively in a massive way.
2) Contrary to popular commentary, this has little to do with the short term oil price. Oil was down both in November and December. Geo-political concerns are the obvious explanation. These are not going away.

3) While last week’s sell-off – and this morning’s - have the aroma of a bear raid, the resistance above $440 seen throughout December is probably Official. Who else could provide this much physical? Without moving lease rates?

3) Eventually the seller will have to retreat. This sort of physical offtake and premiums speak of lows, not highs.

NY on Thursday traded 34,862 contracts (52% more than estimated). The active contract rose $1.40 and open interest slumped by 8,525 lots. This suggests that the view expressed here last week - that a good deal of Wednesday’s selling was short - was correct.

The utility of following The Gartman Letter’s insight (or reflection) of Hedge Fund thinking seems to be proving out. On Thursday Gartman ruminated

"precious metals have acted so terribly. Gold plunged; silver plunged... and the technical aspects of the precious metals markets have become rather overtly bearish…. we said that we'd likely not become bullish of gold again until spot traded back to

$400/oz. We may get our wish, and we'll remain upon the sidelines awaiting that opportunity. However, if there are some who might chose to venture bearishly of gold, we'd not argue with them too strongly at this point…"

Envisaging Gartman, as one does, as a fairly high component of the Hedge Fund information food chain rather than an analyst, this suggests the inclination to short gold was still present in this fraternity. Monday’s abrupt collapse in NY – down 2.2% versus the only 0.75% the Dollar Index action would have suggested – indicates that he was well informed.

But given the ignored but crucial physical market, probably wrong.

JB

The world has told the US to get its financial house in order soon or they will no longer support our fiscal deficits by buying our paper. With spending in Iraq likely to escalate, the US is looking at a squeeze play. The only way to rectify the growing US fiscal problems is some combination of severe spending cuts or to raise taxes. Either one is likely to put a halt to US economic and employment growth. Thus, the US faces a dollar collapse or recession. The Bush Administration must pick its poison. They might get both.

You will read all kinds of drivel why gold is doing what it is from the gold pundits. It is almost unbearable to read as NONE will speak out on the obvious reason why gold is tanking. They will come up with every reason imaginable other that the truth that gold is being forced down in collusive fashion by The Gold Cartel. It is beyond nauseating and contemptible. These will be the same folks who cited gold’s rally due to the weak dollar. Now, that gold has collapsed on its own, the relationship vis-à-vis the dollar will be thrown into the trash bin as an explanation for the gold rout.

I can't make hide nor hair out of the silver action. It continues to collapse at will for no apparent reason. The silver open interest fell 515 contracts to 100,586.

What is important to take out from the above:

*Following the violent gold price explosion subsequent to the Washington Agreement, The Gold Cartel and allies felt compelled to change the way they were doing business.

*The IMF instructed its member central banks to DECEIVE the public about the true status of their gold reserves.

*A portion of Italy’s sizeable gold reserves has been lent/swapped and is no longer in the vaults of their central bank.

None of us are privy to what is going on behind the scenes in the central banking world, however, word is the Italians aren’t going to sell any gold, following the Germans lead. Now take it a step further. What if they want some of their lent gold back? It is important to keep in mind the annual supply/demand deficit is running around 1500+ tonnes. The market can’t handle the Italians calling some of their gold in, or any other major central bank for that matter. This new concern must have the Fed and Gold Cartel petrified, which is reflected in the gold price action of late.

The aggressive nature of the assault on gold appears to be an effort by the US to discredit gold’s refurbished credibility as a reserve central bank asset. PRICE ACTION MAKES MARKET COMMENTARY and influences the sheeples. The cabal’s latest intention is to demonstrate how poorly gold performs even when the dollar is weak and interest rates are low. It also appears to be an attempt to disguise the serious financial market problems facing the US in 2005.

"S034162M – CENTRAL BANK: ASSETS – GOLD AND GOLD RECEIVABLES

Comprises the gold owned by the Bank of Italy and receivables in respect of deposits denominated in gold and swaps."

The above essentially confirms that the Bank of Italy is active in the swaps/deposit market. The next excerpt of note is found on page 48 of the report. They state that:

"In October 1999, as part of the harmonization of the Eurosystem statistics, the accounting treatment of the Bank of Italy's official swaps (in gold and dollars) with the EMI between September 1997 and June 1998 and with the ECB from July to December 1998 was modified. The main change was the switch from stating gold assets net of official swaps to stating them gross of such transactions."

A few things are of interest here. First, they admit to doing gold swaps. Second and much more importantly in October, 1999 the ECB adopted the collateralized loan approach to accounting for gold swaps. This is the same treatment that the IMF denied it ever recommended but we know to be the case. Under this treatment swapped gold remains as a reserve asset even though the ownership has changed and the gold has left the vault. Furthermore, this accounting change went into effect around the time of the Washington Agreement. If I remember correctly, the WA only curtailed sales and lending; it said nothing about swaps. Because of the new treatment it is very possible that gold swaps have increased significantly since late 1999.

The term "official swaps" is in reference to swaps with the EMI and ECB. I'm unsure as to the level of swaps with the EMI but I believe around 15% of the ECB's reserves are in gold which means that Italy transferred at least 450 tonnes in that swap arrangement.

On page 51 in the "Methodological Index", the following is said when explaining an account code: …

-END-

It is not only the Germans who may be running for the hills. To give you some idea how stunning the change re gold in the central banking world probably is, we only need to review a October 13, 2001 piece at the Matisse Table and focus on the work of GATA’s Andrew Hepburn in:

The Bank of Italy Confirms Gold Cartel, IMF Gold Deception

Which can be read in full at:

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/pfv.cfm?pfvID=1765

What becomes significant is that Andrew reveals the Bank of Italy was active in the gold swaps/lending market. After all, someone had to supply some of the 13,000 tonnes not accounted for in the official central bank statistics:

February gold – slaughtered by the crooks during a seasonally strong period of demand
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/25

The irony is, just as gold has fallen apart versus the euro the past month, it will significantly advance against the euro as the year wears on (IMO). This recent blatant attack by the cabal smacks of desperation. They are using every trick in their playbook to turn the specs into sellers before gold takes off again due to surging cash demand (see JB below). The aggressiveness of their maneuvers suggests this may be a last stand charge because they know they don’t have enough available physical gold to keep this up too much longer. When the specs sell, it has the effect of adding temporary supply to the market and allows the bums to cover some of their shorts put on at much higher levels.

Why the urgency to bury gold now? Besides the all-important, and potentially disastrous (for US prestige) Iraqi elections which loom on the horizon, The Gold Cartel has to deal with the real probability central banks are gradually changing their attitude towards holding gold. As oft-stated in MIDAS, the German decision to hold back on their gold sales was a monumental one. Based on the work of the GATA camp over the past many years, The Gold Cartel is now faced with fighting a war without enough ammunition to load into their guns. They have deceived the investment world for too long by swapping/lending too much gold in surreptitious fashion. As a result, they are gradually hitting the wall as far as the "gold hit squad" is concerned. Physical demand around the world is gradually eating their lunch.

So much for gold being weak the past couple of weeks because of The Gold Cartel squaring up their books for year-end. That might have been a reason, but not THE reason. This is a cabal raid on gold orchestrated by the US Government, conducted in fear of a complete dollar collapse and to disguise the true inflation picture in America.

Keeping the focus on the right ball: which is to view how dramatically different the euro, yen and bond charts are from the gold chart. For the reasons oft-expressed in this column the past month, The Gold Cartel has divorced the gold price from that of the euro, yen, dollar, and interest rate developments:

March euro - sideways
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/EC/35

March yen - sideways
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/JY/35

Ten Year Treasury Note -sideways
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/NO/35

If we review all the other markets over the past few weeks, only GOLD has moved sharply in one direction. The rest of the markets have barely budged during the holiday market conditions. Case closed when it comes to the gold price-fixing issue. So much for gold trading in lock step against a weak dollar. So much for free markets in the US. So much for even trying to hide the manipulation anymore.

And let’s hear it for the pathetic leadership in the gold industry which will cower to The Gold Cartel, as always, in response to the obvious white-collar mugging of the gold price. The Gold Cartel just laughs at them, knowing no matter how glaring the manipulation is, these lightweight bunch of powderpuffs won’t say or do anything. Pile a bought financial market press on top of that and you can see why the arrogant cabal forces get away with their reign of terror – and steal your hard earned money in the process.

Talk about cheap shots. The Gold Cartel has made their move to flush out the specs when most of the world markets are closed and many investors still on holiday. All kinds of stops were touched off today when told took out $432 and then psychologically important $430. While it was a winning tactic, it also reveals The Gold Cartel isn’t that strong and must attack like a jackal does against a wounded animal.

January 3 – Gold $428.60 down $9.20 – Silver $6.47 down 32 cents

Gold Cartel Proves GATA Right Yet Again

The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams..Eleanor Roosevelt

GO GATA!!!

It doesn’t take an Einstein to notice the blatant and extraordinarily aggressive manipulation of the gold price over the past month. It all started with the $20 drop following the mysterious disappearance of 15+ tonnes of bullion from the World Gold Council’s GLD in early December. That was followed up last week with an $11 drop. Last night with most of Asia closed and London/Canada closed today, gold was bombed once again as the dollar staged a modest rally. Meanwhile, as John Brimelow reported this morning, the cash market is on fire in India and the Mid East, breaking all kinds of records in Turkey. "So what?" The Gold Cartel roars and does whatever it wants in the short-term, taking gold down nearly $11 again at one point today.

What could not be clearer is The Gold Cartel and powers in the US Government want the price of gold DOWN as we head into the Iraq elections and as foreigners debate what they are going to do about investing in the US in 2005 due to the disappearing dollar. The aggressiveness of the selling by The Gold Cartel during a quiet holiday period seems designed to send some sort of message that the US is in control here, regardless of the dollar fundamentals, which continue to deteriorate.

Gold closed the year in overseas trading at $438.70, up $1.60. Silver was unchanged at $6.79. The yen was especially strong, climbing last to 102.45.

The John Brimelow Report
At least India enjoyed December

Friday, December 31 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $8.27, PM $9.91, with world gold at $437.20 and $437.45. High and extremely high: very lavish for legal imports. The rupee closed at $1 = R43.45 today, a 5-year high, and the Bombay Stock Exchange rose 1.23% to close at another record high. Since the May low, it has risen 56%. Expectations are firm that 2005 will see continued inflows of foreign portfolio investment capital. Bolstered by the "Wealth effect", India looks like continuing to be a strong bidder for world gold next month: ominous for the Bears.

Gold-hostile forces were quite busy yesterday and today. Mitsui-London ominously remarks of yesterday:

"Initially a push lower yesterday on the gold with the same firm seller coming back in, but around 434 gold held…and short covering came in, so gold rallied back towards 439." (JB emphasis)

ScotiaMocatta’s version is

"Gold opened slightly lower today as light fund selling continued yesterday's trend. The metal made an early morning low of 433.50/434.00 (incrementally higher than yesterdays low) where good physical demand helped support the price. Failing to break that support level initiated light profit taking and in thin market conditions the priced rallied quickly."

Reuters quotes London traders this morning:

"Dealers reported some two-way interest but volumes were low, with investment bank selling meeting Far East buying interest.

"The buying seen so far is probably physically related…" a dealer said."

As noted yesterday, the small, 3705 contract decline reported for Wednesday’s heavy trading implies only about a third of the week’s open interest build was eradicated. If the expansion this week, mainly put on as world gold tried to clear $445, was short selling, the shorts are going to be in difficulty next week facing an energized India and the other physical buyers. This would imply a sharp rally. If the growth substantially reflected a long seller (most likely Official) a rally would more likely be slower. But unless the seller is willing to continue at the same large scale – 35 net tonnes of Comex gold on Monday and Tuesday this week – a rally is inevitable.

JB

Zitat

Original von mvd
[
Da sieht man mal wieder wie wichtig es ist, diese täglichen Artikel zu lesen, um zu wissen was wirklich auf der Welt passiert. Diese Jungs sind echt auf Draht und man bekommt Informationen von denen die Leser des Spiegel oder der Financial Times nur träumen können.

Schwabenpfeil, hast du gesehen daß wir dieses Thema im Politikforum auch gerade diskutieren?

[

Hallo mvd,

die Texte aus dem Le Metropole sind auch meiner Ansicht nach von herausrragender Qualität. Da lohnt es sich schon, sich etwas mit der englischen Sprache auseinanderzusetzen. Euren Thread im Politikforum verfolge und schätze ich ...

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

Bill, I just had to share the following tidbit which shows the insanity of today's markets. While watching financial news today, there was a CNBC analyst, who reported that he has received death threats and other harassing calls and emails, since he reported that SIRI (Sirius Satellite Radio) was overvalued. He was attempting to explain how a stock valuation works and the fact that SIRI is minus 402% Gross Margin versus XMSR (XM Satellite Radio) which is only minus 20%. He discussed how the chat boards were buzzing since his report, and many loyal share holders argued that SIRI was five times cheaper than XMSR because of the stock price of 8$ vs. $40. He tried to explain that the price of a stock was not indicative of valuation. He was apologetic in his manner, as he reaffirmed his position that the stock was overvalued. He used a potato chip back as an example, and smashed the contents, while reporting that just because there was now more pieces in the bag, the bag's value didn't change. Ding dong school for momentum traders? It is incredulous that this might be the prevailing attitude of traders now, and explains how easy it is for Wall Street to sell their snake oil. A company like Golden Star Resources (GSS) gets trashed on a single quarters poor performance, and these companies with horrific valuations and huge annual losses have a loyal following. Worse, is the fact that there is a 90% holding by institutions on XMSR which has a price/book ration of 18.71, and it is the better valued of the two. I foresee a huge correction in the not too distant future with this kind of insanity! Go GATA,
Rich

PS - Durban Deeps starts to look very attractive.

The action of US gold shares remains abysmal. The XAU fell .07 to 98.86 and the HUI dropped .80 to 214.35.

The US stock market is open tomorrow. However, the commodities markets are closed.

Gold closes out the year with nice gains and coin holders should be feeling good. Gold share holders had a lousy year for the most part. My shares are off 50% from their highs. Yuck. At the same time, they are up over 1,000% from their lows of three years ago. The way I see it 2005 will be a SPECTACULAR year for gold/silver shareholders. This year’s aggravation will pay off many times over. Patience will be well rewarded.

Happy New Year to all! 2005 will be one for our team.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Jim Sinclair has clearly recognised this fact:

1. This bull market in gold is generational and not cyclical in nature. It will span a much longer time than any advisor so far has suggested. It may well exist for the next 30 years.

2. There is no need to be concerned that a missed sell point for a trader under $400 gold is a lost opportunity. In fact gold will continually make higher lows and higher highs into the predictable future.

3. Gold producer hedgers who refuse or cannot reverse their hedge positions are in serious trouble.

4. Gold shares have a bright long-term future.

5. The value of properties in promising gold fields will increase significantly.

6. Exploration for new gold properties will all increase significantly.

Och aye,
Haggis

Given that Gold has been short sold to the tune of 17,000 tonnes, and that the US$ Idex will experience hyperinflation in an attempt to "pay" its debt, and the Chinese will revalue their currency (supported by Gold), then:

Increased price of Gold =

Gold short covering

+ Negative real interest rates

+ limited supply
+ increased demand
+ falling bond prices
+ crashing stock market
+ Financial Market Derivative contract strike calls
+ Commodity Market (Gold and Silver) Derivative contract strike calls
+ US$ hyperinflation
+ oil payments
+ War (cost of)

There is not enough gold in the entire world to fill the short positions ( 5,000 to 17,000 tonnes ).

We could eventually be paying thousands of dollars for one ounce.

This equation was generated, by yours truly, some 3 years ago, long before the War in Iraq.

So, what price Gold!!!

It’s not now a question, but a fact.

The leading indicator is now the US$ Index, which is caught in "no mans land", between 80 and 81 on the Index.

On the 4th November 2004 the US$ Index broke the 84.4 support level, and this was followed on the 3rd December by a large decline which threatened the 81 supprt level on the index.. Immediatelt after the latter date, the 3rd December, Gold was short sold in an attempt to "break"it as it threatened to move upwards beyond the US$456 level. This was followed by an aborted rally in the US$ Index, which effectively failed on the 23 December. Last night (Aussie time), Gold was yet again trashed down by US$10, to US$437, stopping above the US$ 436 support level, which is the support level established since January 2004, which (surprise, surprise) was the level when the Golden Bull was stopped in its tracks.

The difference between January 2004 and now, is that the "Bull" is now a "Tiger", and the question is therefore "who is prepared to grab its tail"???!!! Those who try will surely get mauled.

Today the US$ Index stands at 81.1, and looks very fragile. It must gain above the 82.4 level to break its current down trend.

The key issue is now support of the US$ Index, which is now a paradox (Gibson’s ???), which is frankly now a "Golden Dream", with an emphasis on a dream..

More insight from Haggis Down Under:

G’day Bill,
We are now in the "land" of "No Mans Land"!!!!

Gold is clearly not "the" problem, as it is now only a mere indicator. The manipulation of the Gold price is now so blatant that we can only now expect it to be trashed. However consider:

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/james_joyce_table.cfm?cfid=1106959&cftoken=77645123&pid=4324]

The relatively small percentage gain in the physical gold and silver prices, relative to other commodities, would suggest that they are lagging behind the general commodity market. Hence, their short selling. Stating the obvious!